Recipient Organization
UNIV OF HAWAII
3190 MAILE WAY
HONOLULU,HI 96822
Performing Department
Natural Resources & Environmental Management
Non Technical Summary
The Great Recession brought the collapse of the stock market, high foreclosure rates, falling housing prices, and rising unemployment. Scholarly research investigating the specific impacts of the recession on rural communities is just emerging. Reports from various agencies give some insight into these issues and provide some direction for future research. We propose to provide a comprehensive picture of recent demographic processes in U.S. rural areas, at several levels of geography, in the years before, during, and after the Great Recession. Specific research questions will be determined, in part, by focus-group discussions with stakeholders proposed as a Year One activity. However, two closely-linked objectives have already been identified as critical to understanding national and regional patterns of rural population change during this time period: 1) better understanding the linkages between job loss and demographic change in rural contexts; and 2) examining dynamics in rural housing markets in light of shifting rural population composition and new economic realities.
Animal Health Component
(N/A)
Research Effort Categories
Basic
100%
Applied
(N/A)
Developmental
(N/A)
Goals / Objectives
Examine dynamics in rural housing markets in light of shifting rural population composition and new economic realities, in particular how increased socioeconomic diversity in rural areas (age, race, household structure, class) alters the demand for different forms of rural housing, how poverty concentration in some areas and wealth in others creates housing stress, and how communities were differentially impacted by the housing-led recession.
Project Methods
To describe the changing distribution and composition of the rural population, we will primarily use population data from U.S. Census 2000 and 2010; the Census Bureau's American Community Survey (ACS); IRS data on migration patterns; and a set of county-level net migration estimates by age, race, sex, and Hispanic origin for 2000-2010 currently being constructed by members of the committee. Data on unemployment and related labor-market indicators come from Bureau of Labor Statistics sources, including their Local Area Unemployment Statistics. Housing data come from the ACS, the Census Bureau's American Housing Survey and some new data sources (especially related to risky mortgages and foreclosure rates) requiring initial evaluation. We will develop a set of uniform demographic accounting methods, including rates and ratios, standardization, and group and subgroup decomposition (e.g. race and age categories, uniform measures of economic vulnerability). Exploratory data analysis and multivariate statistical techniques will be employed to investigate the determinants and consequences of rural population change during the Great Recession. Aggregate level analysis is frequently affected by spatial autocorrelation; we will use spatial regression analysis, where appropriate, to ensure that parameter estimation is carried out with models specified to account for autocorrelation in the data. As before, we will use geographic information technology (GIS) to visualize and explore the geographic variability of demographic and socioeconomic phenomena. As specific research questions are finalized, other data sources and methodologies will be incorporated, as needed. We may choose to take advantage of longitudinal surveys, such as those conducted as part of the National Institute on Aging's Health and Retirement Survey and the Department of Labor's National Longitudinal Studies. Results from recently-conducted, in-depth field studies carried out by committee members will most likely be integrated into committee output.