Source: UNIV OF HAWAII submitted to
POPULATION DYNAMICS AND CHANGE: AGING, ETHNICITY AND LAND USE CHANGE IN RURAL COMMUNITIES (FROM W1001)
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
COMPLETE
Funding Source
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
0213774
Grant No.
(N/A)
Cumulative Award Amt.
(N/A)
Proposal No.
(N/A)
Multistate No.
W-2001
Project Start Date
Oct 1, 2007
Project End Date
Sep 30, 2012
Grant Year
(N/A)
Program Code
[(N/A)]- (N/A)
Project Director
Lepczyk, C. A.
Recipient Organization
UNIV OF HAWAII
3190 MAILE WAY
HONOLULU,HI 96822
Performing Department
NATURAL RESOURCES & ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
Non Technical Summary
Today more than half of the world's population lives in an urban area. As more people have moved to urban areas, there has been a reduction in the number of people living in many rural locations. However, there are many rural locations that have high amenity value (e.g., outdoor recreation, lakes, hunting, etc.), which have had stable or increasing population sizes. As a result, there have been both increases and decreases in the number of people living in rural locations. These demographic changes can have a profound effect on the land use of rural areas and thus it is critical to understand them. Specifically, we need to have an increased understanding of how the human population is changing in both size and composition in rural locations and in turn how this is impacting the land. To understand these changes, I will use existing and pending data from federal agencies, along with members of the W2001 group, to look at how the rural population is changing is size and composition and relate that to changes occurring on the land. The analyses will be conducted using geographical and statistical software. Understanding the relationship between demography and land use will be particularly relevant for state and federal agencies as well as natural resource practitioners.
Animal Health Component
100%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
(N/A)
Applied
100%
Developmental
(N/A)
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
1310120107050%
8036050206025%
8036099308025%
Goals / Objectives
Investigate how changes in the size and composition of the rural population affect changes in land use and analyze the linkages between demographic change and emerging land use conflicts in different regional and local contexts.
Project Methods
The research will use national data sets on population, housing and land use derived from various federal sources (e.g., U.S. Census Bureau, USDA's Economic Research Service, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and USGS) to understand the spatiotemporal changes in demography and how this influences land use and land cover (LULC). Work will be conducted at the county level of analysis, to allow for collaboration in the group, but will also be conducted at finer scales as all datasets have sub-county spatial attributes. In addition, work will discussed and planned in accordance with other members of the group, particularly those working on Objective three. Two current and past members that are particularly relevant to this are Roger Hammer (University of Oregon) and Ken Frank (Loyola University). The research will integrate tools, such as geographic information systems (GIS), spatial statistics, and general linear modeling, to understand how changes in population across the landscape affects land use and land cover (LULC). By taking a computer based, geographic perspective, the analysis will allow for investigations to be conducted at several scales, and across different regions of the country. For instance, rurality can be considered at county levels, as partial blocks within counties, or as a proportion of the landscape. Furthermore, these approaches allow for a number of results, such as the identification of hotspots of demographic and/or land use change (Lepczyk et al. 2007). To analyze land use change I will use data from the National Resources Inventory (NRI), National Land Cover Data (NLCD) from USGS, and a spationtemporily consistent database of housing at the partial block level derived from U.S. Census data. New county-level data, to be released in 2008, will be compared to data from 2003 and 1997. Similarly, NLCD data from 1992/93 will be compared to 2002 data, and housing data from 1990, 2000, and 2010 will be compared. Descriptive and multivariate statistical methods will permit the classification of counties (and smaller locations based upon partial block geography) based on general types of demographic change and land use change, using model selection procedures (e.g., AIC). Regression models will identify what factors most influence the development of land at the periphery of cities, and in remote locations. The research will include interaction with other past and present members of the W2001 to ensure that the methodology provides needed information to the group. Findings of the work will be shared among the group members for use in reports, outreach, extension, workshops, etc. In addition, results from the work will be published in peer-reviewed journals relevant to land use and population (e.g., Landscape and Urban Planning). These outputs will be evaluated by members of the group, the scientific community (via peer review), and feedback from participants in any extension or outreach activity. Lepczyk, C.A., R.B. Hammer, V.C. Radeloff, and S.I. Stewart. 2007. Spatiotemporal dynamics of housing growth hotspots in the North Central U.S. from 1940 to 2000. Landscape Ecology 22:939-953.

Progress 10/01/07 to 09/30/12

Outputs
OUTPUTS: Over the past four years of involvement in W2001 Population Dynamics and Change: Aging, Ethnicity and Land Use Change in Rural Communities (from W1001) Multistate project, I was involved in conducting original research along several different tracks. First, I worked on relating land use to demography through a case study research project looking at housing growth impacts on bird habitat. Second, I taught a 1 credit graduate research methods course entitled Population and Climate Change (NREM 691) to 7 students in Spring of 2011. Third, I mentored three graduate students (2 MS, 1 PhD) on a separate project in which we conducted an international internet based survey of ecologists, sociologists, and demographers related to the topic of population growth and climate change. Fourth, the students and I gave 7 presentations at local and international scientific conferences (references follow). Fifth, three of the seven graduate students involved in the classes and research, graduated with MS degrees in Natural Resources and Environmental Management. Presentations: Lepczyk, C.A., M. Linderman, and R. Hammer. 2010. Linkages between human demography, land-use, and climate change. Symposium 9 - Urban Ecosystems as Socio-Ecological Centers of Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation. 95th Annual Meeting of the Ecological Society of America, Pittsburgh, PA, August 1-5th, 2010. [Invited Symposium Talk] Lepczyk, C.A., Bergstrom, R., M.W. Chynoweth, L. Ellsworth, S. Henly-Shepard, D. Iwashita, K. Miller, and R. Rhodes. 2011. Solutions and challenges to addressing human population growth and global climate change. 96th Annual Meeting of the Ecological Society of America, Austin, TX. August 6-12, 2011. Iwashita, D., Bergstrom, R., M.W. Chynoweth, L. Ellsworth, S. Henly-Shepard, C.A. Lepczyk, K. Miller, and R. Rhodes. 2011. Review of solutions to population growth and climate change. Student Conference on Conservation Science-New York, American Museum of Natural History, October 11-14, New York City, NY. Lepczyk, C.A., R. Bergstrom, M. Chynoweth, L. Ellsworth, S. Henly-Shepard, D. Iwashita, K. Miller, and R. Rhodes. 2011. Solutions and challenges to addressing population growth and climate change. 25th International Conference for Conservation Biology, December 5-9, Auckland, NZ. Rhodes, R, R. Bergstrom, M.W. Chynoweth, L. Ellsworth, S. Henly-Shepard, D. Iwashita, K. Miller, and C.A. Lepczyk. 2012. Solutions and challenges to addressing human population growth and global climate change. 37th Annual Albert L. Tester Memorial Symposium. Department of Biology, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI. Rhodes, R., R. Bergstrom, M.W. Chynoweth, L. Ellsworth, S. Henly-Shepard, D. Iwashita, K. Miller, and C.A. Lepczyk. 2012. Solutions and challenges to addressing human population growth and global climate change. Fourth International Conference on Climate Change. July 12-13, 2012, Seattle, WA, Chynoweth M.W., L.M. Ellsworth, D.K. Iwashita, and C.A. Lepczyk. 2012. Human population growth: A need to raise awareness in our university curricula. 97th Annual Meeting of the Ecological Society of America, Portland, OR. PARTICIPANTS: The PI of the project was Dr. Christopher A. Lepczyk and one student (Brianna McDowell) assisted during the first year of the project as a graduate assistant. In addition to the PI, two collaborators worked on the project: Dr. Marc Linderman (Dept. of Geography, University of Iowa) and Dr. Roger Hammer (Dept. of Sociology, Oregon State University). Training was provided to a total of 7 graduate students over the course of the project as part of a course and through an international survey. TARGET AUDIENCES: As part of the project the PI taught a 1 credit research methods course entitled Population and Climate Change (NREM 691) to 7 students in Spring of 2011 and mentored 3 graduate students on a separate project in which we conducted an international internet based survey of ecologists, sociologists, and demographers related to the topic of population growth and climate change. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.

Impacts
The main outcome of the project was a change in knowledge of the scientists and students (trainees) involved in the research. Specifically, the research lead to several publications (see below) and also improved the skills of the seven students involved in the project. Specifically, students learned how to conduct social surveys and conduct quantitative literature reviews.

Publications

  • Bergstrom, R., Caddell, R., Chynoweth, M.W., Ellsworth, L.M., Henly-Shepard, S., Iwashita, D.K., Lepczyk, C.A., and Miller, K. 2013. A review of solutions and challenges to addressing human population growth and global climate change. The International Journal of Climate Change: Impacts and Responses (accepted).
  • Linderman, M.A., and Lepczyk, C.A. 2013. Climatic variability, vegetation dynamics, and human settlement across the conterminous United States. Journal of Maps (accepted).
  • Lepczyk, C.A., Linderman, M., and Hammer, R. 2012. Environmental issues and rural populations. In L.J. Kulcsar and K.J. Curtis (eds.), International Handbook of Rural Demography, Springer, New York, p. 333-347.


Progress 10/01/10 to 09/30/11

Outputs
OUTPUTS: During the fourth year of this Multistate project a number of different outputs were achieved. First, I (the PI) continued to work with Dr. Marc Linderman (Dept. of Geography, University of Iowa) to expand the scope of investigation between demography and land-use by beginning exploratory research into the relationships between climatic stability and demography. During this year we also began putting together data that was previously presented into a manuscript for the journal Maps on the use of housing and climatic variability. Second, I taught a graduate seminar in the Dept. of Natural Resources and Environmental Management entitled Population Growth and Climate Change that related to ideas discussed by myself at the annual multistate meeting. This seminar was designed to teach synthetic literature review with the goal of completing a research paper. Third, the seven students in the course and I gave two presentations of results from a literature review conducted as part of this seminar. These presentations were at the College of Tropical Agriculture and Human Resources Annual Graduate Symposium and the Ecological Society of America annual meeting in Austin, TX. Currently the students and I are working on a manuscript for publication based upon this literature review. Fourth, three graduate students and I constructed a survey on demography and climate change, which was administered to sociologists, anthropologists, ecologists, and demographers via the internet beginning in September, 2011. Fifth, I was the lead author of an invited book chapter related to demography and the environment, along with Drs. Mark Linderman and Roger Hammer (Dept. of Sociology, Oregon State University) which was accepted and proofs completed during this year. PARTICIPANTS: During the past year nine individuals collaborated with myself on research related to the project. Sepcifcally, Dr. Marc Linderman assisted in coauthoring a book chapter and conducting analysis of remotely sensed imagery for integration with demographic (housing) data. Similarly, Dr. Roger Hammer assisted in coauthoring the book chapter. These collaborators represented a large interdisciplinary team of demography, geography, remote sensing, and landscape ecology across three institutions. Neither Dr. Linderman nor Dr. Hammer received funding for this project. Aside from the two faculty members, a total of seven graduate students worked with the PI on two different projects related to demography. All seven participated in a graduate seminar with the PI on conducting a synthetic literature review. Three of these seven individuals also developed an internet survey with the PI to look at different stakeholder views on demography and climate change. The survey is currently being administered. TARGET AUDIENCES: The target audiences for this project are academic and agency demographers, ecosystem managers, and landscape ecologists. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.

Impacts
The findings from presentation at the Ecological Society of America provided the attendees of the meeting with a coupled model of how demography and land-use are interrelated in terms of climate change, which is not an area typically discussed at the annual meeting.

Publications

  • No publications reported this period


Progress 10/01/09 to 09/30/10

Outputs
OUTPUTS: During the third year of this Multistate project a number of different outputs were achieved. First, I (the PI) worked with Dr. Marc Linderman (Dept. of Geography, University of Iowa) to expand the scope of investigation between demography and land-use by beginning exploratory research into the relationshsips between climatic stability and demography. Second, initial ideas and results of this expansion were disseminated at two presention during 2010. The first presentation was an invited talk entitled "Linkages between human demography, land-use, and climate change," given as part of the Symposium - Urban Ecosystems as Socio-Ecological Centers of Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation. (95th Annual Meeting of the Ecological Society of America, Pittsburgh, PA). The second presentation was given at a miniconference as part of the annual Multistate meeting held in September 2010 in Bloomington, Minnesota. Third, I spent time with other members of the project discussing the movement of the next 5-year project towards a vision of demographic change in relation to climate change in rural areas. Fourth, I was the lead author of an invited book chapter related to demography and the environment, along with Drs. Mark Linderman and Roger Hammer (Dept. of Sociology, Oregon State University) which was drafted (but not published) during the year. PARTICIPANTS: During the past year two individuals collaborated with myself on research related to the project. Sepcifcally, Dr. Marc Linderman assisted in coauthoring a book chapter and conducting analysis of remotely sensed imagery for integration with demographic (housing) data. Similarly, Dr. Roger Hammer assisted in coauthoring the book chapter. These collaborators represented a large interdisciplinary team of demography, geography, remote sensing, and landscape ecology across three institutions. Neither Dr. Linderman nor Dr. Hammer received funding for this project. TARGET AUDIENCES: The target audiences for this project are academic and agency demographers, ecosystem managers, and landscape ecologists. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.

Impacts
The findings from my presentation at the Multistate meeting in Minnesota stimulated a great deal of discussion related to how climate change and demography are interrelated. This discussion lead to the possibility of moving our next five year project towards the direction of climate change. In addition, it also provided the members of the group with an ecological vision of how demography and land-use are interrelated in terms of climate change, which was a new area to the members.

Publications

  • No publications reported this period


Progress 10/01/08 to 09/30/09

Outputs
OUTPUTS: Over the second year of this project, several outputs were realized or are in progress. First, was an activity in which I worked with two other W2001 Multistate members from the University of Missouri and Middlebury College on discerning models for integrating rural demography, landscape ecology, and land use. Specifically, the three of us worked on developing a framework for the W2001 Multistate group to use in addressing the third major objective of the project that focuses on land use. Over the course of the year we conducted monthly phone conferences and developed a presentation for the W2001 annual meeting held on Sept. 11-12, 2009 in Tucson, AZ. The presentation allowed all members to frame the group's research into a unified vision. Second, based upon the discussion at the annual meeting, the W2001 group decided to plan future events around the theme of demography and land use at geography, sociology, and population professional meetings. Third, I worked on developing basic land use and demographic concepts for the W2001 group and for his class entitled Landscape Ecology. Dissemination of information occurred in the form of interacting regularly with the other members of the W2001 Multistate project. No dissemination, other than classroom presentations I gave, resulted during the second year of the project. PARTICIPANTS: During the second year of the project, two participants worked on the project. These two participants were the PI (Christopher Lepczyk) and an MS student (Brianna McDowell). In addition, two individuals collaborated on the project as outlined previously. These two individuals were Matt Foulkes of the University of Missouri and Peter Nelson of Middlebury College and are both members of the W2001 Multistate project. Professional development was provided to the MS graduate student in the form of direct training by the PI. Specific professional development aspects included learning how to: 1) conduct statistical analyses; 2) develop output products (e.g., posters); and, 3) conduct literature reviews. TARGET AUDIENCES: The target audiences for this project are academic and agency demographers. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.

Impacts
The primary outcome/impact that occurred during the second year was a change in knowledge among the W2001 group based upon my presentations and interactions at the annual meeting. Specifically, as the primary member of the Multistate group knowledgeable on land use, I presented background information on how landscape ecologists view land use and how we integrate that perspective with demography. The result was a change in perspective from one that lacks a strong tie to land use to a new perspective where changes in demography are directly related to changes in land use and vice versa. Thus, in moving forward, the group is viewing land use in a new light and considering how demography and land use are connected to such processes as climate change.

Publications

  • No publications reported this period


Progress 10/01/07 to 09/30/08

Outputs
OUTPUTS: The main output completed during this first year was participation in the annual Multistate Meeting held on September 19th and 20th in Kansas City, MO. At this meeting the group discussed the goals of W2001 related to demography and aging, migration, and land use and what we anticipate accomplishing during the second year of the project. PARTICIPANTS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period. TARGET AUDIENCES: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.

Impacts
No outcomes or impacts, as specifically defined here, resulted from this first year of the multistate project.

Publications

  • No publications reported this period