Recipient Organization
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, DAVIS
410 MRAK HALL
DAVIS,CA 95616-8671
Performing Department
(N/A)
Non Technical Summary
The current HPAI outbreak in the U.S. is unprecedented and expanding. Previous USDA effortsemployed eBird waterfowl observations and farmer surveys to identify waterfowl presence as oneof the significant factors for outbreaks of HPAI in commercial poultry. Using radar and telemetry-basedmodels of waterfowl abundance, we identified similar patterns at 144x higher spatialresolution facilitating more targeted risk management at the farm level. In addition, by combiningthese higher resolution risk factors with on-farm risk factors (i.e. operational and physicalbiosecurity), the positive predictive value of an HPAI outbreak at the farm level increased by 3.5x.Here we propose to comprehensively evaluate the relationships between on-farm and off-farm riskfactors on over 9,000 premises in 30 states. Specifically, an agent-based model for prediction ofHPAI risk from waterfowl will be combined with standardized biosecurity scoring to predict overallrisk to commercial poultry facilities. This risk model will be integrated into an existing commercialweb-tool (WaterFowlAlertNetwork) where utilization of the tool and adoption of best practicessuggested by the model will be evaluated at a company, industry and government level. Finally,stakeholder meetings will be organized in order to extend knowledge with a focus on sharing offfarm(e.g. habitat, season) based insights. Our overall goal is to provide an intuitive and accessiblerisk assessment tool to stakeholders to guide implementation of a comprehensive biosecurity plan toprevent HPAI outbreaks and transmission at a farm, company and regional level
Animal Health Component
100%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
(N/A)
Applied
100%
Developmental
(N/A)
Goals / Objectives
Improve prediction of HPAI risk at the farm level via a combination of off-farm factors (e.g. HPAI detections in waterfowl, waterfowl abundance, waterfowl location, water fowl movement and waterfowl habitat) and on-farm factors (e.g. operational and physical biosecurity).Further development of the WaterFowl Alert Network (WFAN) to facilitate data visualization of Objective 1 results and data utilization via both the web-based application (waterfowlalertnetwork.com) and a new mobile application to make the tool more accessible to farmers in geographies with poor internet.Longitudinal assessment of adoption of best practices by farmers and stakeholders based on Objective 1 and 2. In addition, when the results are offered to farmers and stakeholders via the WFAN at no cost how likely are they to adopt and integrate this approach into their biosecurity and HPAI risk assessments.
Project Methods
Develop agent based models for HPAI derived from GPS marked waterfowl (telemetry data).IIn previously published work42, our group developed an agent-based model (ABM) for HPAI risk derived from GPS marked waterfowl (telemetry data). In this model, individual birds represent sentinels for population subunits (i.e. a flock), which are the agent in question. The approach is similar to a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model - the principal difference is that for our model only "susceptible" and "exposed" states exist, as in a flock-level population dynamic, there is likely sufficient infection-recovery-reinfection within the flock that any given individual maintains consistent exposure (and constant infection rate). In this model, birds transition from "susceptible" to "exposed" status under two conditions, (1) occupation of a county within 5 days of the first identified HPAI detection within that county or (2) being juxtaposed spatially (within 10 km) and temporally (within 5 days) with a previously exposed bird. The duration was chosen to equal the duration of infection/viral shedding for waterfowl. The distance range was chosen to reflect the average maximum distance (10 km) birds travel during daily foraging movements and to account for space use variation by individuals in the flocks. For this proposal, new ABMs will be developed with a focus on exploring both radar and telemetry data.Expansion of trhe WFAN as a mobile app for both Android and iOS.Longitudinal survey of farmers and stakeholders: Using a QualtircsTM based survey (Qualtrics, Provo, UT) instrument we will construct a longitudinal survey of participating farms.Extension and outreach in person and virtualDevelop extension material that will be posted on various extension (UC Cooperative Extension Poultry Website) and commercial (waterfowlalertnetwork) sites.