Performing Department
(N/A)
Non Technical Summary
African swine fever (ASF) is a disease associated with mass mortality and the most impactful swinedisease worldwide. Improved knowledge related to the spread of such pathogens is critical for aneffective plan for the deployment of control and eradication strategies in countries such as the US.In the absence of effective vaccines for ASF, control strategies are heavily dependent on massdepopulation and movement restrictions. Before such complex infectious disease threats areintroduced, it is vital to evaluate the effectiveness and economic impact of disease controlinterventions to protect the $20 billion pork industry and America's food economy. We propose tosimulate the dynamics ofASF outbreak among the swine population of three large swine producingstates in the US, considering major modes of within and between-farm transmission.Our integratedobjectives are to:1) Develop mathematical models utilizing real swine population dynamics data at multiplelevels: a) farm, b) barn and c) pen-levels across multiple US states.2) Investigate the feasibility of ASF control and eradication strategies, at farm, barn andpen-level.3) Engage stakeholders with participatory modeling to enhancestakeholder understandingand model usability.This project will minimize industry disruption during disease emergencies by testing theeffectiveness of current tactics against ASF. Our proposal addresses priorities of the Data Sciencefor Food and Agricultural Systems (DSFAS) Code (A1541). Our work will provide aclear pictureof the feasibility of responding to a larger scale disease outbreak. This project will advance thenational ability to prevent widespread disease emergencies.
Animal Health Component
80%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
0%
Applied
80%
Developmental
20%
Goals / Objectives
Overall these are the major goals:1. Utilizing real population and biosecurity data from our consortium, develop multilevel mathematical models at the pen, barn, and farm levels across three states (Aim 1a).2. Investigate the feasibility of ASF control and eradication strategies at the pen, barn and farm level (Aim 1b).3. Utilize participatory modeling to unite research with implementation and enhance outbreak response and recovery (Aim 2).Breifly, the research and and extension aims are are follows:Aim 1 (Research): Develop a novel multilevel model of swine disease at the farm, barn, and pen levels, and use this model to extensively test ASF control strategies in three states.a) Multilevel model development: Using real data collected via the RABapp consortium (e.g. GIS-based farm locations, barn-level infrastructure, between-farm animal movements, and farm population), we will develop a transmission model that considers between-farm transmission as well as within-barn and pen transmission dynamics in multiple states.b) Modelling USDA APHIS ASF control and eradication strategies and response actions at the farm, barn and pen level: Utilizing the model developed in Aim 1a, we will test pen, barn and farm level transmission levels to assess the effectiveness and feasibility of outbreak countermeasures listed in the Red Book.7 Our scenarios will include the introduction of two different ASF strains with distinct virulence characteristics into commercial swine farms.12,26 These scenarios are critical because the heterogeneity of ASF virulence and mortality thresholds affect early outbreak detection, which in turn influences epidemic outcomes. Our data will also allow us to model transmission via three main modes: 1) farm-to-farm proximity and 2) between-farm animal movements and 3) vehicles movements.13 Combined, these scenarios and our multilevel model will allow us to compare different control strategies and the costs of response actions.Aim 2 (Research & Extension): Incorporate control strategies into existing software (the RABapp) to enhance outbreak response and recovery. For the research component of this aim, we will integrate findings and model functionalities from Aim 1 into the RABapp.
Project Methods
List of methods by activities listed below:Activity 1a: Develop disease transmission model architecture that allows different epidemiological units to be modeled together using real swine data. The model will include between-barn and between-pen dynamics while also allowing simultaneous modeling of between-farm dynamics, the farm-level model has already been developed and validated.Activity 1b: Extend the mathematical modeling framework developed in 1a to simulate the effectiveness and feasibility of ASF control and eradication strategies and response actions listed in the Red Book at both the farm and barn level using data provided by our consortium.Activity 2: Combine the modelling framework and functionalities with an easy-to-use dashboard in the RABapp and develop and deploy stakeholder engagement and training.For the extension activities: Evaluation data will be collected and analyzed in R and included in annual reports for the project team and advisory group to assess project effectiveness and opportunities for improvement for subsequent project years. For instance, evaluation approach for Activity 2 (Extension) will include: 1) >80% of SAHOs and swine industry stakeholders successfully complete one-day workshop (delivered via web conference); 2) >70% of trainees demonstrate capacity to utilize model outputs for discussions of alternative ASF response plan; and 3)Presence of ASF revisions related to transmission models on USDA or SAHO working group agendas within 2 years.