Performing Department
(N/A)
Non Technical Summary
The research project aims to assess the impacts of regulations for genetically modified (GM) organisms. The overarching goal is to provide novel insights into the economic consequences of such regulations across four critical dimensions. Firstly, we will examine technology adoption, agricultural productivity, and welfare in the context of GM regulations. We will develop a new quantitative trade model that offers a precise tool for measuring the influence of these barriers on critical agricultural outcomes. Secondly, we will use advanced machine-learning techniques to uncover the complex economic, social, and political determinants shaping GM regulations and provide valuable insights into agricultural trade policy forces. Thirdly, we will assess the impact on international trade, delving into trade barriers, market access, and trade disputes to uncover how GM regulations shape global agricultural trade patterns and influence economies worldwide. Fourthly, our research will provide evidence on the economic welfare and food security implications of GM market barriers. We will quantify economic welfare effects, revealing gains and losses for U.S. agriculture in diverse markets over time. Our project will also examine the multifaceted impact of GM regulations on food security, including availability, access, stability, and utilization. Therefore, this research will provide a comprehensive, data-driven perspective on GM adoption, border regulations, agricultural trade, economic welfare, and food security. These results will inform policymaking, promote international cooperation, establish a solid foundation for understanding GM market barriers, and foster a deeper understanding of the complex trade-offs associated with GM regulations on a global scale.
Animal Health Component
0%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
100%
Applied
(N/A)
Developmental
(N/A)
Goals / Objectives
This research will generate new knowledge regarding the challenges associated with the complicated international market barriers for approval, production, consumption, and trade of food produced using genetically modified (GM) organisms. We will focus on the implications of these trade barriers for U.S. agriculture. We will develop a sophisticated quantitative general equilibrium model to capture micro-level decisions regarding crop and technology choices. This model will allow us to quantify how domestic and international GM market barriers influence licensing, technology adoption, agricultural productivity, production, consumption, and welfare distribution. To better understand GM trade barriers, we will employ cutting-edge machine learning (ML) techniques applied to a comprehensive dataset encompassing GM regulations, resource endowments, economic factors, social dynamics, and political influences. This integrative approach will unveil determinants shaping GM regulations, providing valuable insights into the complex forces at play in global agriculture. These research dimensions collectively position our work at the forefront of knowledge, equipping the academic community and policymakers with a comprehensive toolkit to navigate the landscape of GM regulations and their implications for U.S. agriculture. Because the United States, as the world's second-largest agricultural exporter, heavily depends on international markets, our research will offer crucial guidance to policymakers striving to enhance the global competitiveness of U.S. agriculture while ensuring its long-term economic sustainability. In an era marked by evolving global trade uncertainty and shifting consumer preferences, our research will serve as a cornerstone for evidence-based policies that will safeguard the interests of U.S. farmers, boost agricultural productivity, and fortify the resilience of the U.S. agricultural sector, ensuring its continued success in the face of a rapidly changing world.
Project Methods
The project will deploy the following methods to address the research objectives:Objective 1: Assess the impact of GM adoption on agricultural productivity and welfare distribution. Develop a quantitative general equilibrium model that accounts for micro-level decisions regarding crop and technology choices to quantify the impact of GM market barriers on technology adoption, agricultural productivity, and welfare distribution.Objective 2: Evaluate the impact of economic, social, and political factors on GM market access regulations. Construct a comprehensive dataset on GM regulations and economic, social, and political factors. ML methods are used for feature selection to identify the essential determinants of GM market barriers.Objective 3: Measure the impact of GM trade regulations on U.S. agricultural exports. Assess the impact of changes in GM market barriers on agricultural trade in the short run using dynamic treatment effect models and high-frequency trade data.Objective 4: Quantify the economic welfare and food security consequences of GM trade regulations. Evaluate the long-run trade reallocation and measure economic welfare effects using commodity-level structural gravity models. Use causal inference methods and household-level data to assess the food security implications of GM market barriers.