Source: UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA submitted to NRP
HEATWAVE ATOP UNPRECEDENTED GROWING-SEASON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: HOW HOT IS TOO HOT FOR AGRICULTURE IN FLORIDA?
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
COMPLETE
Funding Source
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
1031660
Grant No.
2024-68016-41535
Cumulative Award Amt.
$293,440.00
Proposal No.
2023-09009
Multistate No.
(N/A)
Project Start Date
Nov 15, 2023
Project End Date
Nov 14, 2024
Grant Year
2024
Program Code
[A1712]- Rapid Response to Extreme Weather Events Across Food and Agricultural Systems
Recipient Organization
UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
G022 MCCARTY HALL
GAINESVILLE,FL 32611
Performing Department
(N/A)
Non Technical Summary
The state of Florida has set an all-time record for maximum temperatures, an occurrence that will be common in the near future. This record-setting warm 2023 should have yielded the most heat tolerant crops because plants can become more tolerant to heat when they develop under warmer conditions. Yet, a heatwave on August 13th led to damage in a range of foraging crops across the state of Florida, first noted in silage corn. Silage corn is the base cattle food for about 60% of Florida milk production which represents a significant contribution to Florida's annual agricultural economy. This project's goal is to capitalize on this unprecedented warm year followed by a damaging heatwave to study the limits of crop resistance to extreme warming on our planet, its impacts on productivity, and how to best identify heat-resistant varieties. We will characterize the impacts of this heatwave on crop production and quality across Florida and quantify the heat tolerance of the most and least impacted crop varieties to identify which plant traits predict risk of heat damage during incoming heatwaves. By the end of the project, we will have catalogued which varieties, traits, and growth stages of silage corn are most susceptible to heatwave stress and used that information to generate tools for growers to predict crop production and quality under extreme heat. The findings of this project will inform growers of which crop varieties will be most and least tolerant to incoming heat, thus enabling better decision-making during early and late planting seasons. Additionally, our findings will generate critical knowledge about the mechanisms of heat tolerance in crops, which can open the door to improvement of heat tolerance for future plant breeding efforts.
Animal Health Component
100%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
(N/A)
Applied
100%
Developmental
(N/A)
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
8072499102050%
2031510102050%
Goals / Objectives
Objectives. Here, we propose an integrated extension and research project with two aims: 1) identify state-wide impacts of this record-hot Florida growing season punctuated by a July heatwave on agronomic production and quality using silage corn as a model system, and 2) to quantify the thermal tolerance of the most and least impacted crops to identify traits to inform of future risk, with the overarching goal of generating a synthesis report to integrate the knowledge gained through our extension and research activities to inform growers across the state of Florida, along with peer-reviewed research revealing the mechanisms of heatwave damages in agricultural crops. This rare event represents the largest natural heat acclimation experiment followed by a heatwave performance test to exist in Florida during the last 129 years. Studying this extreme eventwill provide key insights to improving future variety selection, the limits of thermal acclimation, and potential risks to productivity and survival for agricultural plants.
Project Methods
Aim 1. Identify state-wide impacts of this record-hot Florida growing season punctuated by a July heatwave on agricultural production and quality.To identify state-wide impacts of record-hot growing season temperatures punctuated by a heatwave, we will work to collect data on silage production, including metrics of yield and quality where available. Through the extensive network of county and state faculty both within and across state borders, Co-PD Wallau can coordinate our team to reach over 600,000 acres of corn planted in FL and GA (in FL, estimate of silage corn is about 30,000 acres). Dr. Wallau is already conducting variety trials at the Plant Science Research and Education Unit in Citra, FL, where he will continue conducting variety trials to inform growers during the study period, including throughout the 2024 growing season.Aim 2. Quantify the thermal tolerance of the most and least impacted crops to identify traits that inform of future risk. In addition to phenotyping the thermal limits of field-grown silage corn and other crops during the next 12 months, we will conduct a manipulative experiment using the custom-built heatwave chambers of the Hammond lab to confront silage corn at various growth stages with heatwave maximum temperatures that have been determined as damage. During this trial, corn will be grown in greenhouse conditions in pots so that plants may be placed in the chambers at key developmental stages: vegetative, tasseling, silking, and physiological maturity. After treatment, plants will be returned to well-irrigated and nutrient-supplied conditions, to mature. We will then compare biomass and send tissue for nutritive value testing (comparable to data collected from the 2023 heatwave atop hot-growing season field data in Aim 1). Together, we expect our findings from this highly controlled experimental heatwave study and the field observations to provide insight into what varieties, traits, and developmental stages are most susceptible to heatwave stress, providing insight for late-season planting. We will integrate field data from variety trials in Aim 1, with the phenology-based heatwave simulations of silage corn varieties in Aim 2 to improve AgroClimate phenology models to inform grower.The tool displays daily values air temperature, precipitation, and drought stress. Drought stress is based on the Agricultural Reference Index for Drought (ARID). Nevertheless, no information is provided regarding the periods of time when daily maximum temperature exceeds the thermal tolerance for a specific variety and development stage. This information will be added to help farmers in Florida better evaluate the production risk that heatwaves may pose for different planting scenarios. Our updated web-based tool will provide guidance for growers on when to plant, and what varieties may be most suitable under further warming.

Progress 11/15/23 to 11/14/24

Outputs
Target Audience:Target audiences for our project include academic researchers, germplasm developers, growers of silage corn, stakeholders in the silage industry, and the general public concerned with crop health and heat wave impacts more broadly. This year, we reached many of these audiences by presenting at conferences in Florida and the silage corn field day in Citra, FL. A manuscript is in preparation for submission to a peer reviewed journal relaying the findings from our heatwaves across ontogeny study in silage corn, including our assessments from in-field variety trials and thermotolerance measurements across ontogeny; a first-ever study in this crop. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?This project provided the opportunity for professional development for a student who was finishing her undergraduate degree, Emily Perry. The research experience gained working for a year on this project following her undergraduate studies provided Emily will the skills, experience, and confidence to be admitted to UF's competitive graduate college. She has now begun a Ph.D. in plant ecophysiology in the lab of PD Hammond, and the development she received during this project--during which she executed and presented her first first-author scientific presentations (orally, and two poster presentations), were key to her growth and current success. The project also provided professional development opportunities to PD Hammond, Co-PDs Wallau and Fraise, as they interacted for the first time in an interdisciplinary way--sharing perspectives from ecophysiology, forage extension, and crop modelling respectively. A synergistic approach to research and extension was developed among the PD and Co-PDs that is expected to continue beyond this project--they remain in contact and are actively developing future efforts to work together on future interdisciplinary projects. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Our project included hosting the 2024 Silage Corn field day in Citra, FL. This event was well attended, with over 130 atteendees in person representing corn growers, seed companies, and land managers. There was high interest in oral presentations by Dr. Wallau, Dr. Sapes (a research scientist on the project) and student Emily Perry. Following the field day, Dr. Wallau conducted interviews to further understand the concerns and needs of stakeholders across Florida regarding heat stress on silage and other crops. Finally, Dr. Fraisse has worked on integrating the findings of this research into heat stress reports that can be generated via Agroclimate.org, an online decision management tool for growers. The model developed in Silage corn as a part of this project has great potential to be further expanded to additional crops via Agroclimate. Extension materials and outcomes The work developed through the variety trials is assisting farmers in Florida and Georgia to improve silage productivity and reduce the cost of production per ton of milk produced. Considering there are less 50 dairies in Florida, covering about 25,000 acres of corn silage, and attendants of the Corn Silage Field Day corresponded to about 60% of that area (based on land acreage reported on surveys), is fair to say we are reaching about half of that population of dairy farmers with our programs, events and content. Dairy farmers using our variety recommendation can have an increase of 30% in milk production per acre of crop planted with the same inputs, compared to randomly choosing a corn or sorghum hybrid. Considering an average of corn silage production of 28,500 lb estimated milk per acre, following the recommendations we provide results in an extra $1,800 per acre (considering $0.2078 per lb of milk), or about $26.6 M in 15,000 acres. As farmers become more aware and experience climatic challenges, the variety testing program becomes even more important as a resource for unbiased information on forage performance. Extension presentations: -Extension events (producer and industry audience) Suwanee & Columbia Counties Crop Updates Meeting - Feb 4, 2025 - attendance 14 participants Talk: Forage Crop Updates - Marcelo Wallau - overview of main results from variety trials, to help farms deciding hybrids to be planted and planting strategies. Corn Silage and Forage Field Day - May 30, 2024 - Attendance 134 participants Talk: Hybrid decision tool and 15 years of data - Marcelo Wallau, Diwakar Vyas, and Nicolas Caram - talk about the long-term analysis of corn and sorghum variety trial data, including a discussion on yield stability and factors influencing productivity and tolerance to stress. Talk: Thermotolerance in corn - Gerard Sapes and Emily Perry - discussion of the preliminary results from the thermotolerance assessment in corn hybrids from the 2023 trial. Extension communications -Cow talks podcast (audience - general producers, industry and extension; listeners ~350) Silage hybrid selection, with guest speaker Bill Mahanna, hosted by Marcelo Wallau and co-hosting with Diwakar Vyas, about critical factors influencing corn selection for silage, emphasizing the importance of agronomy, late season plant health, and the role of data models.https://open.spotify.com/episode/2M22EnbKHzJ2Cc3pq1hzBj?si=7b1138e669ad4e56 -Newsletter Wallau, M., M. Mailhos, C. Mackowiak and D. Vyas. 2024. Cool-season forage variety recommendations. Panhandle Ag e-News, UF/IFAS Extension. Aug 2, 2024. https://nwdistrict.ifas.ufl.edu/phag/2024/08/02/2024-cool-season-forage-variety-recommendations/ Wallau, M., O. Maule, A. Kanobroski and D. Vyas. 2024. What to Look for When Selecting Hybrid Corn Varieties for Silage? . Panhandle Ag e-News, UF/IFAS Extension. Jan 31, 2025. https://nwdistrict.ifas.ufl.edu/phag/2025/01/31/what-to-look-for-when-selecting-hybrid-corn-varieties-for-silage/ -Silage decision tool Hybrid decision tool website (536 views in 2024) - a repository of data from the corn and sorghum hybrid trails to help farmers on decision-making about materials to plant https://devfel.github.io/forage-hybrid-table/ -Website Corn Silage Field Day website - contains all data from the variety trials and all presentations from the Corn Silage and Forage Field Days https://animal.ifas.ufl.edu/extension/courses/csfd/. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? According to these goals, we have accomplished the following: 1) identify state-wide impacts of this record-hot Florida growing season punctuated by a July heatwave on agronomic production and quality using silage corn as a model system Co-PD Wallau has conducted surveys of silage corn growers, and growers of other crops from around the state. In addition to our focal/model system of silage corn, the project also was able to phenotype 30 additional crops for thermaltolerance, creating a database of Florida crop thermal limits that serves an important foundation for understanding potential risks and future impacts of increased temperatures for agricultural production in the state. These data are part of an in-preparation manuscript, and will be DOI'd and shared according to reporting requirements as the manuscript is completed. Farmer Surveys: Our goal was to identify evidence of the negative impact of a heatwave from August 2023 on crop production (especially corn), gauge the use of research data such as variety trial results and climatic models, and assess current and future climate-related concerns. The survey was conducted using a semi-structured questionnaire with four objective and ten open-ended questions. We employed a non-probabilistic, purposive sampling method, involving farmers and consultants from our Extension contact list. We conducted nine interviews, each lasting approximately 30 minutes. The group represents the two main dairy regions in Florida, Okeechobee and the Suwanee Valley, with an approximate combined area of 15,000 acres planted with corn (both silage and grain), representing about 25% of the crop acreage in the state. Through our survey, we could not conclusively identify the effects of the 2023 heatwave on corn production, possibly because many farmers have been planting sorghum as a second crop following corn. However, several participants voiced concerns about extreme weather, particularly excessive heat and variability in rainfall. Several respondents noted that the heatwave caused poor pollination and unfilled ears. High temperatures (>95F) hindered plant growth despite adequate soil moisture, necessitating additional irrigation. However, some mentioned that even with full irrigation, plants could not keep up with evapotranspiration, resulting in crop loss. Most farmers interviewed are using the hybrid trial results, either accessed via the website (Excel spreadsheets) or the online tool. Some still contact Extension directly for hybrid selection assistance. Other management and decision-making tools mentioned include soil moisture probes, and tissue sampling; most utilize short-term weather forecasts. None mentioned using physiology-based models for management decisions, however some have shown interest as a potential management tool. Those planting corn for silage based their planting date decisions on the harvesting crew's availability as they custom-harvest their silage. For south Florida, the common harvesting date was by the end of May, and for North Florida by the first week of July. After that, the harvesting crews move north and there is no service available. Climate-Related Concerns Mentioned: Heat stress impacting pollination and grain filling. Nutrient leaching due to rain during high nutrient demand periods. Increased temperatures resulting in flash droughts and high night temperatures. Challenges with second-season planting and limited land availability. Timing of seasonal temperatures affecting forage and grain quality. Issues with high temperatures causing plants to fail to transpire sufficiently. Increased temperatures and nutrient management difficulties. Some respondents did not identify new challenges, focusing instead on ongoing issues such as heat and rainfall variability. 2) to quantify the thermal tolerance of the most and least impacted crops to identify traits to inform of future risk, with the overarching goal of generating a synthesis report to integrate the knowledge gained through our extension and research activities to inform growers across the state of Florida, along with peer-reviewed research revealing the mechanisms of heatwave damages in agricultural crops. For our second aim, we have identified the most impacted crops (likely, silage corn--our focal species), and a range of other crops including sub-tropical and tropical species sampled at UF's tropical research and education center (TREC) in Homestead, FL. The mechanisms of damage were found to be highly linked not only to maximum air temperatures in our heatwave chambers, but dependent upon the water status of plants. We found consistently higher damages in plants exposed to even mild drought stress, highlighting the importance of water management during periods of maximum heat stress. Additionally, through a greenhouse experiment in silage corn where we imposed the August 2023 heatwave at different developmental stages for five contrasting entries, we identified key phenological stages that are most vulnerable to extreme heat in silage corn. These stages include the late-vegetative and early-reproductive (V15-R1) stages, and heat vulnerability varied by genotype. Data from this experiment is being used to parameterize the heat risk thresholds in the Agroclimate.org forecasting tool, providing an opportunity for farmers to make an informed decision about heat risk for planting.

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