Source: UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS submitted to
ILLINOIS DUST STORMS DURING THE 2023 PLANTING-SEASON DROUGHT: UNDERSTANDING MECHANISMS AND DEVELOPING MITIGATION STRATEGIES OF DUST STORMS OVER AGRICULTURAL LANDSCAPE
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
ACTIVE
Funding Source
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
1031590
Grant No.
2023-68016-41371
Cumulative Award Amt.
$300,000.00
Proposal No.
2023-07272
Multistate No.
(N/A)
Project Start Date
Nov 7, 2023
Project End Date
Nov 6, 2025
Grant Year
2024
Program Code
[A1712]- Rapid Response to Extreme Weather Events Across Food and Agricultural Systems
Recipient Organization
UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS
2001 S. Lincoln Ave.
URBANA,IL 61801
Performing Department
(N/A)
Non Technical Summary
The recent Illinois dust storms led to a series of severe disasters, with the most notable one in early May of 2023. A dust storm turned deadly in central Illinois when blowing topsoils caused a multi-vehicle crash on Interstate 55, killing 8 people and injuring 37. Much of Illinois experienced a drought during the intense farming as part of the planting season from late April to June 2023. During this drought, volatile weather drove wind gusts that swept up parched and tilled soil particles from fields creating an intense dust storm that caused the highway accidents, and drew comparisons to the 1930's Dust Bowl. Such conditions and the resulting dust storms pose severe threats to human and environmental health as well as road safety, and could become frequent under climate change. The current low adoption of conservation practices, such as cover cropping and no-till may also be a reason leading to the current disaster. However, there are still significant gaps in knowledge and quantitative information related to the dust storm mechanism over agricultural landscapes for the broad Midwest, which severely affects the development of effective strategies to mitigate dust storm formation; at the same, addressing these gaps requires translating research and helping farmers apply lessons from research to practices in their fields. Therefore, this project will leverage advanced remote sensing technologies, numerical weather modeling and social science analysis to understand agricultural dust storm mechanisms and develop mitigation strategies.
Animal Health Component
50%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
50%
Applied
50%
Developmental
0%
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
80701993111100%
Goals / Objectives
This project aims to understand the mechanisms of Illinois dust storms during the 2023 planting-season drought and develop mitigation strategies for dust storms over agricultural landscapes. Specifically, this project will integrate research and extension to address the above gaps through: (1) Characterizing dust storm processes through the synergic use of remote sensing and environmental data; (2) Understanding dust storm mechanisms through multi-scale model simulation, and developing mitigation strategies; (3) Conducting social and policy analysis through extension with stakeholders for dust storm mitigation.
Project Methods
This project will use three major approaches to understand agricultural dust storm formation and develop mitigation strategies. The first approach is to use remote sensing and environmental data to conduct statistical and empirical analysis to understand the linkage between agricultural dust storms and climate forcing/agricultural conservation management practices. The second approach will conduct mechanistic modeling to use numerical weather models to simulate the agricultural dust storm formation processes to understand the mechanisms to further develop mitigation strategies. The third approach is to conduct a social science analysis to assess how farmers and other key stakeholder groups understand the disaster, especially the underlying causes, and the perceived value of different mitigation strategies. In addition, research dissemination activities will also be conducted to promote and implement dust storm mitigation strategies.

Progress 11/07/23 to 11/06/24

Outputs
Target Audience:The audience for our work includes agricultural officials involved in agricultural land planning, crop scheduling, and disaster prevention, along with transportation officials focused on designing transport infrastructure to prevent traffic accidents. They are especially concerned with extreme traffic incidents influenced by agricultural practices and the environment around the road Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?The dust storm investigation is a good case study for students to learn the multi-phase simulation in Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), improving their understanding of the multi-phase flow and the numerical method of Large Eddy Simulation (LES). We also hired an NSF Research Experiences for Undergraduates (REU) student from the University of Maryland to work on satellite remote sensing. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?All research results have been disseminated to the community through university websites and the farm doc platform at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. These websites and seminars can be found in the links below. https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2024/02/cover-crops-and-covered-cropland-2022-us-census-of-agriculture.html ?https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2024/08/back-to-policy-design-the-inflation-reduction-acts-conservation-assistance.html What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Our goal is to improve the dust storm simulation model configuration, tuning down the dust plume to more accurate scenarios. Based on the model simulations, we also aim to draw a quantitative relation between cover crop adoption and its impact on mitigation. We will also integrate all three research goals together to finalize this project.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? 1. Characterizing dust storm processes via news, reports and remote sensing. We examine news and reports regarding the highway car crash caused by dust, which occurred around 11 A.M. on May 1, 2023. The incident took place at 39.505407 N, -89.645350 W, in the northbound lane of the highway, providing a precise location. Wind speed at the time was approximately 45 mph (20 m/s) from the northwest. The crops planted near the crash site were identified as soybean and corn. Reports from the National Agricultural Statistics Service indicate that April 2023 had significantly lower precipitation and higher temperatures than the historical average. Additionally, the planting season had started earlier than usual, so seedbed preparation was underway on May 1, 2023. This led to dust being rolled up, resulting in high dust concentration and reduced road visibility. Further investigation into the environmental conditions during seedbed preparation revealed a dust concentration of about 14 mg/m³, with an average particle size of approximately 10 μm. The relationship between dust concentration and visibility was also analyzed and will be applied in subsequent studies. To further characterize the dust storm, we will first define two experiment regions: the dust storm region and nearby non-dust storm. Then, we will randomly select sample fields for each region. For the sampled field, we will derive information including agricultural practice (e.g. planting dates, cover cropping or not, and tillage type) and environmental conditions (e.g. temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, and wind speed and direction). Finally, the statistical models (e.g. analysis of variance) and machine learning models (e.g. causal forests) will be adopted to determine the impacts of each variable on the dust storm event. 2. Understanding mechanisms through multi-scale simulations Based on the collected data, we established the boundary conditions and computational domain. Figure 1 illustrates the crash area landscape, and Figure 2 displays the domain's bottom setup for numerical simulation. Green, yellow, and light blue areas respectively represent trees, roads, and buildings. Tree height is set at 20 m, and building height at 10 m. A two-phase flow model using Large Eddy Simulation (LES) with Lagrangian particles is developed, including a tree model to simulate drag effects within the computational domain. We have conducted several simulations to investigate the impact of wind speed and threshold friction velocity on dust concentration. Specifically, we performed sensitivity analyses by simulating the same event with varying vegetation fractions to assess their influence on dust entrainment From the literature, we note that particles tend to accumulate at the area with a higher strain rate than the rotational rate, which can be influenced by drag forces from trees within the flow field. For further simulation cases, we focus on dust concentration levels at road sections adjacent to the trees, where higher strain rates lead to particle accumulation. 3. Social and policy analysis with stakeholders for dust storm mitigation We have conducted a social science analysis to summarize the news report from the public. Among these articles, there are 50% of articles published in Illinois, 33% of articles published nationally, and 17% of articles published in agricultural journals or out-of-Illinois regional publications. From the news articles, farmers near I-55 were blamed for planting during dry weather, using intensive tillage practices, or failing to adopt cover crops.?

Publications

  • Type: Peer Reviewed Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2024 Citation: Zhou, Q., Guan, K., Wang, S., Hipple, J. and Chen, Z., 2024. From satellite-based phenological metrics to crop planting dates: Deriving field-level planting dates for corn and soybean in the US Midwest. ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, 216, pp.259-273.