Source: UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA submitted to NRP
PARTNERSHIP: PINEPHYS: PREDICTING IDEOTYPES: NOVEL AND EXTANT FROM PHYSIOLOGY, HYPERSPECTRAL REFLECTANCE, AND SNP-GENOTYPES.
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
ACTIVE
Funding Source
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
1030214
Grant No.
2023-67013-39535
Cumulative Award Amt.
$799,988.00
Proposal No.
2022-10949
Multistate No.
(N/A)
Project Start Date
Jun 1, 2023
Project End Date
May 31, 2027
Grant Year
2023
Program Code
[A1152]- Physiology of Agricultural Plants
Recipient Organization
UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
G022 MCCARTY HALL
GAINESVILLE,FL 32611
Performing Department
(N/A)
Non Technical Summary
Climate change is leading to more frequent, and more extreme compound hotter-drought events globally. In the southeastern US, these events have led to climate-induced growth declines and have even caused recent mortality in loblolly pine--the most economically important timber species in the region. Future climate projections indicate significant potential risk to growth and survival potentially costing billions in lost value to southeastern forestland owners and industry. Yet the climate-resilience for both growth (to sustain value) and survival (to prevent massive economic losses) remains largely unknown both in adults and juveniles. During hotter-drought stress, a complex suite of traits determines when plants will stop growing, with important physiological indicators and thresholds acting as mechanisms of reduced plant growth and survival.Our overall goal is to improve the climate-resilience of loblolly pine plantations while preserving production by identifying climate-ready genotypes for deployment today, and climate-resilient "ideotypes" (ideal trait combinations) to inform breeding efforts in the most economically important forest tree species in the US. Our objectives are to determine genetically-based growth and survival trait combinations that confer climate resilience in loblolly pine, and to discover ideal climate-resilient growth and survival trait combinations across developmental stages of the species.Our study directly addresses goals and priorities of the Physiology of Agricultural Plants as we focus on how to improve productivity and performance, including survival, under future hotter-and-drier climates associated with climate change. We will reveal mechanisms of plant response to abiotic stress, by fusing physiological, genomic, and spectral methods with mechanistic models.
Animal Health Component
20%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
80%
Applied
20%
Developmental
(N/A)
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
2030611102060%
2030611107020%
2030611108020%
Goals / Objectives
Our overall goal is to improve the climate-resilience of loblolly pine plantations while preserving production by identifying climate-ready genotypes for deployment today, and climate-resilient "ideotypes" (ideal trait combinations) to inform breeding efforts in the most economically important forest tree in the US. We will achieve our overall goal by leveraging our project team's diverse expertise, and integrating ecophysiological, spectral, genetic, and mechanistic modeling approaches. To achieve our overarching goal, we propose two aims:Aim 1: Determine genetic basis of growth and survival trait combinations that confer climate resilience in loblolly pine.Task 1.1: Identify range-wide physiological trait distributions for climate-resilient growth and survival. We will measure a suite of important physiological growth and survival traits, including the response of carbon assimilation, stomatal conductance, and water use efficiency to elevated temperature, xylem vulnerability, bark and leaf residual conductance, thermal tolerance, and pressure-volume traits (e.g., turgor loss point, capacitance). We will do so in a common garden of replicated, SNP-genotyped clones (ADEPT2), whose parent material was collected at 315 sites across the entire climatic, geographic, and genetic range of P. taeda, Figure 2. We hypothesize that genotypes from cooler and wetter sites will have a greater xylem vulnerability, lower minimum conductance, and lower thermal tolerance; we expect the opposite from trees of hotter and drier western provenance.Task 1.2: Characterize the genetic architecture and candidate genes/alleles of physiological traits for climate-resilience. We will conduct quantitative genetic analyses of all traits to estimate genetic control and trait-trait genetic correlations to inform breeding efforts. We will conduct genetic association analysis to identify SNPs in candidate genes that are significantly associated with individual traits. With the candidate genes we will build network models to explain genetic associations and identify genotypes suited for deployment in hotter and drier environments.Task 1.3: Develop hyperspectral trait prediction models for physiological traits in loblolly pine and their variation. With loblolly pine growing on over 19,000,000,000 hectares of land, measurement of all possible trait values across the species, or even in a small percentage of individuals, using a physiological approach is impossible. While sampling the genetically diverse common garden of loblolly pine for survival traits in Task 1.1, above, we will also collect plant hyperspectral reflectance data at two scales (point-source of foliage and branch-level images, and develop models that predict our measured physiological traits from reflected light.We will use these models to identify wavelengths that consistently predict growth- and survival-related traits as a first step towards drone- and satellite-based (SBG, CHIME) landscape-level trait prediction. Finally, we will use both physiological traits (from task 1.1) and spectrally-predicted traits (from task 1.3) to model which extant genotypes may be most successful under future climate scenarios (see task 2.2, below). We hypothesize that growth and survival traits can be predicted from spectral reflectance, given previous work on remote sensing prediction of traits and future perspectives.Aim 2: Discover ideal climate-resilient growth and survival trait combinations across developmental stages of loblolly pine. Task 2.1: Quantify growth and survival trait variations across developmental stages. Because growth and survival strategies change as trees mature, the most successful combination of traits likely changes as trees develop from seedlings to adults. Following the field sampling of mature trees in the ADEPT2 common garden (age = 11 y), we will obtain cloned plants from industry partner ArborGen (see letter of support from lead scientist Dr. Patrick Cumbie, Key Personnel on this project) from five provenances: Virginia, Georgia, Alabama, Florida, and Texas, to sample growth and survival traits on somatic seedlings (1 year old emblings) and saplings (2 years old). We will submit them to drought stress ranging from mild (stomatal closure) to lethal doses (LD50) as determined in our prior work with loblolly pine [25], and identify traits and their combinations that lead to prolonged growth and survival time during climate stress, at each life stage. Leaf, branch, and canopy spectral reflectance will also be collected under stress and used as the mechanistic backbone to predict growth and survival time (e.g., time to mortality) from spectral traits. At the end of each experiment, we will destructively sample all plants for an allometry analysis [41], weighing the fresh and dry mass of taproots, fine roots, the main stem, branches, and foliage separately. We hypothesize that earlier life stages will be more vulnerable to climate-induced growth declines and mortality, with lower temperature optima of carbon assimilation and water use efficiency, lower thermal tolerance, and less drought resistance (higher P50s, TLPs, gres).Task 2.2: Mechanistic model of "ideotypes" to identify existing climate-resilient trait combinations, and propose new ones. Using a process-based model, SurEau, developed by members of our research team, we will mechanistically model growth, mortality risk, and time-to-death for loblolly pine based on quantified seedling and sapling traits measured in Task 2.1. During greenhouse drought studies, we will validate model predictions in seedlings and saplings on the UF Plant Array, a physiological phenotyping platform. Once validated, we will use SurEau to build highly climate-resilient "ideotypes" with optimal trait combinations for seedlings, saplings, and adult trees. We will then identify those trait combinations that maximize performance across life stages and that have a genetic association (based on Task 1.2). Furthermore, we will also parameterize the model with spectrally-predicted trait values (from Task 2.1) to determine if mechanistic models can be trained and used to accurately forecast tree growth and survival time with our spectra from Task 1.3, rather than time-intensive physiological trait data. In planted forest production systems like loblolly pine, the emphasis is often on maximizing production. Management silvicultural practices most common in this system include site preparation, stocking densities, fertilization, and chemical or mechanical thinning. These practices, especially appropriate stocking densities and stand thinning, may already be improving the climate resilience of existing loblolly pine plantations. However, incomplete understanding of the climate resilience of the species, especially for early developmental stages, means that loblolly pine might experience widespread forest mortality events (see Fig. 2F-H, below) like those observed across global forests in recent decades.
Project Methods
Methods Task 1.1. Field samples from trees will be collected in years 1 and 2 of the project proposal. We will rent a mechanical lift (33') for easy access to sample branches in the sunlit canopy of trees in the ADEPT2 common garden. For each of the 315 genotypes, we will sample branches from each of the six replicate clones: two sunlit south-facing canopy branches (0.5m in length) will be cut, wrapped in damp paper towels, and bagged in plastic for transport to the laboratory. In the laboratory, we will re-cut branches underwater and used to sample physiological traits.Methods Task 1.2. With the traits from task 1.1, and SNP-genotypes, from the same 315 range-wide genotypes growing in the ADEPT2 common garden, we will conduct quantitative genetic analyses of all traits to estimate genetic control and trait-trait genetic correlations to inform breeding efforts. We will conduct genetic association analysis to identify SNPs in candidate genes that are significantly associated with individual traits. With the candidate genes we will build network models to explain genetic associations and identify genotypes suited for deployment in hotter and drier environments.Methods Task 1.3. We will collect leaf-level spectral reflectance from 400 to 2400 nm using an SVC instrument and a fiber optic probe covering a leaf surface area of ca. 1 cm2. After branch sampling (Task 1.1) and transport to the lab, branch-level (wood + needles) spectra will be collected in the lab using two hyperspectral cameras co-mounted on a LabScanner platform (20cm x 40cm illuminated imaging area), which conducts linear imaging from 400-1700nm (SPECIM FX10e, FX17e). Before measurement of each sample, we will reference light conditions using a Spectralon Diffuse Reflectance Standard (99% reflectance) placed directly under the fiber optic and cameras, and collect a dark reference.Methods Task 2.1. We will perform a seedling and a sapling drought experiment in the Plant Array to determine the extent to which each physiological trait determines growth and survival time under drought. In the seedling experiment, traits from Table 1 will be measured in a subset of seedlings from each population. The impact of drought on growth for each plant will be estimated as the relative change in biomass per unit change in water potential. Mortality risk will be estimated as the proportion of dead seedlings of each population at each target water potential. A second subset of seedlings will be dried to death to determine time to hydraulic failure as a proxy for death. In the sapling experiment, all plants will be dried to death. Traits will be measured in all saplings from each population at the onset of drought and the influence of the traits on growth and time to death will be measured and compared to that found in the seedling experiment.Methods Task 2.2 Data from tasks 1.1, 1.3, and 2.1 will be used to run model simulations in SurEau, a mechanistic plant hydraulic model developed by co-PD Cochard. We will use these trait data to parameterize SurEau and conduct four groups of simulations:Genotype by Provenance simulations. First, we will simulate climate stress responses of each genotype (with their own trait values) across the entire distribution range of loblolly pine, to determine how each genotype's suite of traits performs in the geographic and climatic context, using current climate data. We will repeat these simulations using CMIP6 climate ensembles (similar data used in our preliminary risk analysis, see Fig. 2).Trait sensitivity to climate. The second group of simulations will involve varying the trait values of plants across the range of trait values observed from ADEPT2 sampling in task 1.1, to determine the sensitivity to climate of each trait, as assessed by time to stomatal closure, or hydraulic failure, respectively (as shown in preliminary data, Fig. 5 above). During these simulations, the investigated trait will be varied across our range of observation in the 315 sampled ADEPT2 genotypes, while other traits are held at the range-wide mean.Ideotype generation. We will use the 315 genotypes of measured trait values to identify the existing genotypes that produce the most climate-resilience for growth, and have the longest survival times on the landscape--that is, the genotype which performs best under current and future climate conditions. Additionally, we will generate an "ideotype", a combination of the ideal trait values constrained to the observed variation in traits and genetic trait association from Task 1.1 and 2.1 - to identify which traits perform best at each developmental stage (seedling, sapling, and tree).SurEau Spectral. Finally, we will run "SurEau Spectral" simulations, with spectrally-predicted physiological traits from Task 1.3 and 2.1 being used to parameterize the model. We will compare these model predictions to the predictions from directly measured physiological traits (Task 1.1).Data Analysis. Task 1.1: For our measured climate-resilient growth and survival traits (Table 1), we will identify the range and average observed in the 315 provenances from the ADEPT2 garden, to assess intraspecific trait variation for these genetically diverse trees grown in a common garden.Task 1.2: Genetic architecture and association of genotypes with phenotypes measured in Task 1.1 will be conducted using an established analytical pipeline by the postdoctoral researcher in the Peter lab.Task 1.3: We will use partial least square regression (PLSR) to generate leaf- and branch-level spectral reflectance models that predict the range of static physiological trait values obtained across ADEPT2 trees.Task 2.1: We will use generalized mixed models to assess the extent to which growth-related traits change in relevance among life stages both under well water conditions and until drought inhibits growth. Additionally, we will model declines in growth rates and mortality risk due to drought as a function of leaf- branch- and canopy-level spectra using PLSR models to identify wavelengths that can serve as a "spectral fingerprint" of death. The physiological, spectral, growth, and mortality data obtained in this experiment will also be used to generate independent subsets of data to parameterize and validate trait- and spectra-based SurEAU, "SurEau Spectral" of ideotypes.Task 2.2: We will compare simulation outputs from the four groups of SurEau simulations:Genotype by Provenance simulations: We will compare model results to identify the ideal location for each genotype, and the genotypes which are most ideal for climate-resilient growth and survival across the species range. We will compare these projections between observed and future climates to aid in range-wide deployment decisions.Trait sensitivity to climate. With the range-wide variation in each trait, we will run model simulations across the range of each trait value, while holding other traits at their mean, under current and future climates, to reveal the climate sensitivity of each trait.Ideotype generation. The best-performing (e.g., highest 'growth time' and 'survival time' during simulated drought stress) traits will be selected to identify both existing genotypes that have the most ideal climate-resilient growth and survival traits, and to reveal the potential for breeding by generating "ideotypes". Importantly, we will constrain these ideotype predictions based on the genomic analysis in task 1.2, accounting for genetic association.SurEau Spectral. We will compare the SurEau model predictions based on directly measured physiological traits (Task 1.1, Task 2.1) to the predictions from spectrally-predicted trait values (task 1.3, 2.1) in seedlings, saplings, and mature trees, to reveal the potential for upscaling spectral detection of climate-resilient growth and survival traits to extend SurEau spectral to other populations.

Progress 06/01/23 to 05/31/24

Outputs
Target Audience:Target audiences for our project include academic researchers, germplasm developers, land managers of pine forests, stakeholders in the silvicultural industry, and the general public concerned with forest health for intrinsic, aesthetic, and recreational reasons. This year, we reached many of these audiences by presenting at multiple scientific conferences in Florida and San Francisco, which were attended by academic researchers. Additionally, PD Hammond and co-PD Mantova attended and presented findings from the current reporting period at the Forest Biology Research Cooperative (FBRC, co-directed by Co-PD's Peter and Martin), which was attended by a consortium of corporate partners who collectively breed, deploy, and manage millions of hectares of southern pine plantations in the USA. Changes/Problems:For Task 1.1, we originally proposed to sample the 315 genotypes present in the ADEPT2 common garden. During our initial mortality surveys, we detected complete mortality in several of the genotypes as well as individuals highly affected by rust fungi that preclude the use of these genotypes in our project. Finally, we identified that 192 provenances remained replicated with a tree in each of the six blocks of the experiment, from which we could sample. During the first weeks of the first field season, we identified that our throughput might be limited to 51 provenances per field season. With two planned field seasons, we held a meeting with all project Co-PDs and decided to maximize the genetic variation in our collected traits by sampling more provenances (100 in total over Y1 and Y2) instead of sampling more replicates of fewer provenances. We thus carried out an analysis to identify the 100 provenances which best represented the geographic and climatic diversity of the natural range of loblolly pine. In spite of this unexpected change to our sampling design, both the number of available genotypes, the trait variability among them, and the variability in their geographic and climatic origin is still large, encompassing the entire species native range, and will not prevent us from achieving our goal of phenotyping the diversity of growth and survival traits across the distribution of the species. Indeed, as reported in the accomplishments above, the first year's sampling revealed exciting variation in key climate-resilient growth and survival traits of loblolly pine, which we will double our sampling depth of in the second year. Because of the sampling changes described for Task 1.1, the number of genotypes available for hyperspectral measurements is also smaller than originally proposed in Task 1.3. However, the current number of point-source spectral measurements sampled is already several times larger than the recommended number of samples (~200) to develop robust models that can predict plant traits. The fact that these measurements already cover over 25% of the existing genotypic diversity available within ADEPT2 ensures that models trained with these data cover a wide range of the genetic variability existing within the distribution of the species. We will also complement our existing efforts with additional pv-curve and hyperspectral measurements in the 5 cloned provenances during the PlantArray drought experiments planned for Task 2.1. We expect to begin developing hyperspectral models a year earlier (originally planned for Y3, now beginning in Y2) given the broad variation in traits already observed in the first 51 genotypes. During year 1, we collected 654 hyperspectral reflectance measurements across 51 different genotypes that were paired with point measurements of plant water potential and water content. During year two, we will leverage this dataset to build models for hyperspectral trait prediction. For Task 1.3 We had originally proposed to use provenances from Virginia, Georgia, Alabama, Texas, and Florida. However, our partner company was unable to supply the provenances from Virginia and Georgia by the time the project got funded. We decided to replace these two provenances by two other pure lines from Arkansas and South Carolina that were currently in stock, after a project-wide meeting to determine the most useful provenances, and based on our further phenotyping after project initiation. The South Carolina provenance will serve as a replacement for Georgia as it is also at the Atlantic edge of the species distribution. The Arkansas provenance comes from the west side of the Mississippi, which acts as a natural barrier for gene flow between populations located at each side of the river in this species. As such, the Arkansas provenance -alongside the Texas provenance- will provide a second source of genetic diversity from the west side of the Mississippi and ensure a more balanced coverage of the existing trait variability across the species distribution. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Undergraduate training and development: During this project, three undergraduate scholars were trained: Emily Perry and Eric Torres. Each student was paid as an undergraduate research assistant, and received direct mentorship from the project postdoctoral researcher (co-PD Mantova) and from project director Hammond. This resulted in two poster presentations (see outputs) led by undergraduate researchers, and a total of four presentations in which undergraduate students were co-authors. The first manuscript resulting from this project also includes them. Graduate student training and development: This project supports one graduate student full-time, co-advised by co-PD Cochard, co-PD Torres-Ruiz, and co-PD Hammond. In the first year, the student had the opportunity to participate in the development and data collection of vulnerability to cavitation curves, a key trait for parameterizing the mechanistic model used in aim 2. During the first year of the project, this PhD student also had the opportunity to develop and submit a Fulbright proposal to support their travel to PD Hammond's laboratory at the University of Florida. Their application was successful, and Elizabeth (PhD student) will arrive at the Hammond lab in October of 2024, to continue working on climate-resilient growth and survival of loblolly pine, as a part of our PINE-PHYS project. Her Fulbright project will allow her also to sample trees outside of the common garden, and across sites of interest in the natural range of the species--complementing the outputs of this PINE-PHYS project. Postdoctoral training and development: Additionally, Dr. Mantova had opportunities for professional development: she was able to attend the 2023 fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union, where she presented findings from the first year of this project as an oral presentation. Additionally, she was able to organize as co-chair a Gordon Research Seminar on Multi-Scale Vascular Plant Biology, providing her with leadership opportunities in the field of plant vascular biology. Finally, throughout the first year of the project virtually, and from mid-April to mid-May of 2024 while visiting in-person in France, Dr. Mantova had the opportunity to learn and develop skills in mechanistic modeling of plant hydraulics using the SurEau model, with Co-PD Cochard from INRAe. PD/Co-PD training and development: During the first year, project PD Hammond was in communication with co-PD Cochard and co-PD Mantova regarding the use of the mechanistic plant hydraulics model, SurEau, which he learned to operate and use. This skill will be useful in completing the stated objectives in aim 2 of the project, and more broadly in his research program. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Presentations of the work from this project during the first year have been primarily at research conferences and with stakeholder audiences. Scientific conference presentations: One presentation was given by Co-PD Mantova in December 2023 at the American Geophysical Union annual meeting (AGU23) in San Francisco, California. The AGU meeting is the largest gathering of Earth and space scientists, reuniting, each year, more than 25,000 scientists coming from around the world. It also convenes educators, policymakers, journalists and communicators to better understand our planet and environment. Additionally, PD Hammond organized and chaired a special session at the 2023 Ecological Society of America meeting in Portland, Oregon, titled "How hot is too hot for land plants?" that was attended by over 100 people, from diverse backgrounds--including foresters, land managers, and tribal leaders, to discuss the impact of climate extremes on plants and trees, and the importance of deploying and developing climate-resilient materials. Stakeholder presentations: During 2023, presentations at the Forest Biology Research Cooperative meeting were given by Co-PD Mantova, as shown in the outputs of this report. The Forest Biology Research Cooperative is a cooperative group composed of academics and industry stakeholders interested in southeastern pine forests, especially in the silviculture and production of loblolly pine, the focal species of our PINE-PHYS project. This annual meeting was also attended by project director Hammond, who engaged directly with stakeholders at the meeting to understand their interests in climate-resilient growth and survival traits of loblolly pine, and their present plans for deployment and development of further improvements (as proposed in our project). What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?During the next reporting period (6/01/2024-05/31/2025) we plan to conduct the following work to accomplish progress on each of the tasks of our project. survival traits needed to accomplish task 1.2, 1.3, and 2.2. Task 1.1: We will continue phenotyping of provenances of loblolly pine under task 1.1 at the Millhopper common garden site (ADEPT2). This is expected to double our provenances for which we have collected the full suite of climate-resilient growth, exceeding the 100 needed to begin preliminary analyses of task 1.2. In order to accelerate the phenotyping of the physiological traits, particularly the production of PV-curves, to reach the initial target number of provenances, we are developing new methods that will allow us high throughput phenotyping. The development of the new method will be the topic of a technical publication that we aim to submit during the next reporting period. Data supporting this method was collected alongside the classic pressure-volume curve method for our year 1 provenances, providing a large dataset of comparison by which we can train and test a model for PV-trait prediction with high-throughput measurement systems in development. Additionally, given the wide variation in key traits observed in the first year, a Fullbright scholar (PhD student Elizabeth Ilinca--supported by this project in Clermont-Ferrand, France) will visit the Hammond lab at UF from October 2024 through May 2025 to conduct additional field sampling of climate-resilient growth and survival traits in loblolly pine. During their Fulbright project, they will visit provenances of loblolly pine from the year 1 dataset that represent extreme and average trait values, and travel to these locations to sample trees growing in natural populations under local provenance-specific climate conditions, to investigate the plasticity of these key traits in comparison with the common garden trait values already collected in Gainesville. Additionally, they will sample some replicated clones in the Gainesville common garden, to explore trait variation within a genotype among clones. Task 1.2: We will begin undertaking the genetic analyses once we have collected the first 100 provenances, which encompass the range-wide geographic and climatic diversity of loblolly pine as a species. While this is detailed in the proposal, and our plans remain unchanged, briefly the plan is as follows. We will conduct genetic association analysis to identify SNPs in candidate genes that are significantly associated with individual traits. Importantly, this will reveal if some traits have opposite correlations. Next, we will test for heritability of the observed climate-resilient growth and survival traits. Both of these steps will help to identify which traits might be most viable as targets for future improvement of the species, and also will narrow down the total number of traits necessary to measure to capture a minimum set for improving climate resilience in the species. Additionally, we will begin to explore climate associated analyses between the genetics, through colleagues of Co-PD Peter at ORNL and already developed analysis pipelines. Note, these analyses were previously planned for Y3 of the project, but after a recent project meeting reviewing progress to date, we believe we can begin this work in Y2, ahead of schedule. Task 1.3: During the next reporting period, we will develop spectral models to predict climate-resilient growth and survival traits from spectral reflectance. Earlier this year, PD Hammond's lab published a proof of concept for "Spectral Ecophysiology" (doi:10.1111/nph.19669), demonstrating for the first time that spectral models can accurately predict physiological functional traits important to climate-resilient growth and survival, such as the turgor loss point. During the first year of this project, we collected hyperspectral reflectance data on the first 51 provenances alongside collection of the suite of physiological traits we consider key for predicting climate-resilient growth and survival. In year two, we expect that we will identify which traits are more or less promising for hyperspectral prediction, which can greatly accelerate phenotyping of functional traits through imaging approaches. In addition to developing models with already-collected data, we will collect hyperspectral data on seedling trees in our physiological phenotyping platform (Plant Array) in task 2.1 (see below), for further model development and to understand how if, and if so, how, relationships between physiological traits and spectral reflectance change across ontogeny. Note, these analyses were planned to initiate in Y3, but with such a large amount of data collected already in year 1, we expect that our initial hyperspectral trait prediction models will be developed by the end of year 2, and that we can refine and build upon these in subsequent years of the project.. Task 2.1: We have received 150 clones of each genotype and they are currently growing at our greenhouse in Gainesville, Florida. We will transplant them into pots once they start developing adult needles where they will continue to grow until they are large enough to be transferred to our high throughput physiological phenotyping platform (the UF Plant Array) by no later than June 2025.We plan to initiate the seedling experiment in summer 2025, as originally planned in our project proposal. The approach will remain as described in the proposal under task 2.1. Task 2.2: In year two, we plan to conduct genotype by provenance simulations of the > 100 provenances we expect to have phenotyped by the end of the second field season. We will conduct a trait sensitivity analysis to narrow down the suite of traits necessary to continue phenotyping in future work aimed at genetic improvement of climate resilience in the species, providing needed optimization to screening and breeding programs. Note, we have already begun the mechanistic modeling of task 2.2 (see this year's "what was accomplished", above) and postdoctoral researcher Dr. Mantova (co-PD) has dedicated significant time to learning how to use and apply the model across scales from individual plants to the entire Southeastern US. While this task was initially intended to begin during Year 2, the large amount of phenotypic data (and trait variation observed) encouraged us to begin work on this task early. We will continue to develop these modeling approaches, and the development of ideotypes for improvement and identification of fit between extant genotypes and particular locations in geographic and climatic space, for improved deployment. Planned publications: The first publication from this project is being led by Co-PD Mantova (postdoctoral researcher), and will be submitted during the next reporting period. A second publication, on the acceleration of phenotyping for physiological traits (specifically, turgor loss point) will aim to be submitted by the end of year two of this project. Planned meetings: During year two of the project, PD Hammond will organize quarterly project meetings to discuss progress, roadblocks, and products of the project.PD Hammond, co-PD Mantova, co-PD Cochard, and co-PD Torres will aim to meet in person during the XIM6 conference in Seville, Spain to discuss project progress and next steps. Planned conferences: PD Hammond and Co-PD Mantova plans to attend the AGU24 meeting in December 2024 and present the results of the second year of sampling. Co-PD Mantova and PD Hammond plan to attend the Xylem International Meeting 6 (XIM6) conference that will take place in Sevilla, Spain in March 2025. PD Hammond plans to attend the FBRC meeting in 2024 to present a project update to industry stakeholders growing loblolly pine throughout the Southeastern USA.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Task 1.1: As proposed for year 1, we have measured a suite of important physiological growth and survival traits likely to determine the capacity of loblolly pine plantations and forests to survive and thrive under future climates. These measurements have been taken in a common garden of replicated, SNP-genotyped clones (ADEPT2) that cover the entire geographic, climatic, and genetic range of P. taeda. P. taeda covers 10-22°C of mean annual temperature and 850-1500 mm of mean annual precipitation across the south-eastern united states being present from Texas up to Oklahoma and from Florida up to West Virginia. For growth, these included carbon assimilation, stomatal conductance, and water use efficiency at both optimal and elevated temperatures. For survival, we measured xylem vulnerability, leaf residual conductance to water, and cell thermal tolerance. Additionally, we measured anatomical traits that drive growth and survival such as pressure-volume traits (e.g., turgor loss point, capacitance), diameter growth, and huber values in this highly-important timber species. During our first year, we have measured these traits across 51 genotypes of the 192 meeting our sampling criteria in the garden. Thus far, we have observed wide genetic variability in most anatomical, growth, and survival traits within the species. For most traits, variability among genotypes spans ca. +/-2.5 standard deviations from the mean trait value of the species. The only exceptions were the maximum intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUEmax) observed between 20°C and 40°C and the temperature at which iWUEmax occurs (iWUEopt). Both traits showed ca. +/-1 to +/-2 standard deviations from the mean trait value of the species. Based on these findings, extant populations might already harvest combinations of traits well adapted to increased compound heat and drought stress. Additionally, variability in both growth and survival is an essential requirement towards breeding new climate-resilient P.taeda lines. Thus, these findings provide hope for the future of this species both in natural and agricultural settings that will face the challenges of climate change. Task 1.2: As our first year has led to sampling of the first 51 provenances, we are not yet able to conduct quantitative genetic analyses; we expect that with the year two data set (> 100 provenances) we will begin this in the late stages of year 2 of the project. With this data we will calculate clonal repeatability for each trait and pairwise genetic correlations between traits of interest. Genetic analysis for heritability will identify traits suitable for future GWAS analyses. Task 1.3: As proposed in Task 1.3, we have collected plant hyperspectral reflectance data while sampling the genetically diverse common garden of loblolly pine for survival traits. To date, we have collected 654 point-source spectra paired with water potential and water content measurements made during the construction of pv-curves for 51 different genotypes. From this dataset, We will be able to extract 13 different water relations traits for each genotype and relate them to variation in spectral reflectance across genotypes. Coding pipelines for the construction, training, and testing of models of plant water content and water potential are already in place and ready to be deployed to predict these traits on new data. These spectra can also be associated with the 18 anatomical, growth, and survival traits obtained in Task 1.1 for the same 51 genotypes. Task 2.1: Although task 2.1 is scheduled for year 2, making preparations towards this task during the first year was paramount to its success. Towards that goal, we initiated our collaboration with our industry partner ArborGen and started the clone preparation process for 5 pure genotypes originally from Arkansas, South Carolina, Texas, Florida, and Alabama. Thus, covering the edges and middle range of the geographic distribution of P.taeda. 150 clones of each genotype are already growing at our greenhouse in mini soil plugs. We expect them to be ready for planting the initially proposed seedling experiment in our high throughput phenotyping system (PlantArray) by June 2025. The PlantArray has been tested through multiple experiments and coding pipelines have been developed to automate data collection and enable real time assessment. Task 2.2: As proposed in task 2.2, we will mechanistically model growth, mortality risk, and time-to-death for loblolly pine based on quantified seedling and sapling traits measured during the PlantArray experiments described in Task 2.1. In preparation for that task, we have used the trait data collected in adult trees from 51 different genotypes planted in our common garden to further develop and train SurEau both at individual and landscape scales. This exercise not only allowed us to early-prepare and overcome any major roadblocks that we might have faced later with the modeling, but also unveiled the vulnerability and resilience to future climates of extant loblolly pine genotypes during the adult stage of their development across the landscape. We found that, across the 51 genotypes sampled, there is wide variation in time to cessation of growth (modeled as turgor loss) and time to death under drought and heat stress. At a daily maximum temperature of 30°C, the worst performing extant genotype would cease to grow after 21 days of drought and die 7 days after that. At 40°C, this same genotype would stop growing and die 6 and 9 days earlier, respectively. On the other hand, the best performing extant genotype would cease to grow after 167 days of drought and die after 42 days after that. At 40°C, this same genotype would stop growing and die 43 and 55 days earlier, respectively. These results suggest that the intraspecific variability in traits detected in Aim 1 Task 1.1 likely translates into variability in growth and survival across the current genetic and geographic landscape of loblolly pine and will determine the performance of this important species under future climates. Importantly, the best performing genotype in terms of time to cessation of growth and time to death is small in size and has characteristics that make it far from the ideal tree for timber. Thus, tradeoffs between maximizing yield and resilience to stress likely exist in this species. We performed a preliminary attempt at building a climate-resilient "ideotype" with optimal trait combinations for adult trees that maximize performance and achieved a modeled increase of 168% and 191% in time to death relative to the best performing extant genotype at 30°C and 40°C,respectively. While this preliminary ideotype is not yet constrained by the genetic associations that will be unveiled at the end of Task 1.2, its time to cessation of growth, its trunk diameter, and its trunk length were greater than the average across all modeled genotypes. Thus, suggesting that it might be possible to breed new varieties of loblolly pine with greater resilience to future hotter and drier climates with minimal impacts on yield potential.

Publications

  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2023 Citation: Perry E. E., Mantova M., Castillo-Argaez R., Torres E., Heintzelman C., Clark D., Cochard H., Martin T., Peter G., Sapes G., Torres-Ruiz J., Hammond W. M.. Parched Pines: Investigating the Climatic-Resilience of Loblolly Pine. Poster Presentation.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2023 Citation: Perry E. E., Mantova M., Castillo-Argaez R., Torres E., Heintzelman C., Clark D., Cochard H., Martin T., Peter G., Sapes G., Torres-Ruiz J., Hammond W. M.. "How Much Can Pine Trees Sweat?" Poster Presentation.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2023 Citation: Mantova M., Castillo-Argaez R., Perry E. E., Torres E., Heintzelman C. J., Clark D., Cochard H., Martin T., Peter G., Sapes G., Torres-Ruiz J. M., Hammond W. M.. A Loblolly Pine for Tomorrow: When Genetics, Physiology and Modeling Collide for More Resilient Forests. AGU 2023 Fall Meeting. Oral presentation.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2024 Citation: Mantova M., Castillo-Argaez R., Perry E. E., Torres E., Clark D., Cinquini A., Heintzelman C. J., Cochard H., Martin T., Peter G., Sapes G., Torres-Ruiz J. M., Hammond W. M.. Pine contains multitude: Intraspecific variation across genotypes in time to growth limitation and mortality risk. Poster presentation. Gordon Research Conference on Multi-Scale Vascular Plant Biology.
  • Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2023 Citation: Mantova M. A loblolly pine for tomorrow. Forest Biology Research Cooperative Annual Meeting. Oral Extension Presentation.