Progress 04/01/23 to 03/31/24
Outputs Target Audience:The project reached arange of stakeholders in its first year, including students (K12 and University), academics and researchers, farmers, food system and supply chains experts, as well as the general public (consumers). Below are examples of the project engaged with these different target audiences: media releases about the project and associated published research findings were distributed on different online platforms informingstakeholders (and the general public) about the project goals, the impact of the Ukraine-Russia war on biodiversityand thepotential chokepoints in U.S. food supply chains. a dataset was publicly released to share data on crop irrigation. local and regional food systems experts and collaborators were interviewed to help assist in the selection of those supply chains that will be targeted by the project(criteria:impact, vulnerability, diversity). pilot visual interviews were conducted with farmers, grocers and customersof local and regional food. K12 students engaged with our piloteducational platform demonstrating its effectiveness as a tool in educating middle school students on food shocks and local food supply chains, andbuildingcompetencies (skills and applications)critical to resilience. preliminary results from a extensive literature review were shared with current and prospective graduate students on correlation between supply chain characteristics and vulnerability of those systems to shocks. Changes/Problems:No major changes/problems have been identified and realized by the project in Year 1. Project communication and integration among objectives remains a priority and improvements in the area will be ongoing. There have been some minor tweaks to the organization of the project as activities were implemented in Year 1. These changes were madein order to streamline efficiency, communication and to resolve gaps in programming that were identified by the project teams. They include splitting the management of Objective 8 into two sub-sections: 1) Higher Education, and 2) K-12 Education, hiring a dedicated communication manager, and reassigning personnel (temporarily and permanently). Adjustments were also made to project activities in order to account for data gaps (e.g. apple production was found to be fragmented across various sources leading to inconsistencies),advances in the field (e.g. new efforts in multi-agent LLMs), and project lags between research and education/outreach initiatives. The latter was mitigated by literature reviews of state-of-the-art educational and extension programming and the development of templates/pilot projects. Finally, we have accelerated the implemented of the K12 educational platform (Grow MainStreet) due to the unexpected rapid progress of its development and interest among the stakeholder community. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?The project provided training and professional development for principal investigators, graduate students and professional staff. Below are some specifics opportunities that were provided: Co-PI Varshney served as a White House Fellow, in the National Security Council staff at the White House, where he contributed to national and international AI policy efforts, including efforts to bring U.S. and EU together on agriculture+AI research. Our project manager participated in professional training programs and self-study to learn MSU systems and protocols, and project management tools. Various guest speakers were invited to share their expertise with the project team during our weekly meetings. This included a PD/PI of another NIFA Sustainable Agricultural Systems who provided insights on project management, team building, project evaluation and reporting. Graduate students and post-doctoral researchers have been hired to engage in the project and received training in survey and interview design, qualitative analysis, among other disciplines. Several of these students have also been supported to travel to relevant conferences and workshops. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?The project has disseminated the limited results of the project in several different ways to reach communities of interest. Below are examples of how results have been disseminated by objective. The overall project scope and objectives were shared with academic audiences (PI Ross gave an invited presentation to the University of Adelaide), industry trade associations (PI Ross gave an invited presentation to the Michigan Agribusiness Association), and the general public (via press releases made by each partner institution). Objective 1 The activities and preliminary results associated with Objective 1 were disseminated through public presentations (Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics Graduate Symposium), abstracts to academic conferences (International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, Food Distribution Research Society) and a Masters' thesis. Preliminary results were also shared with the project team on multiple occasions via presentations offered by graduate student research assistants. Objective 2 Results associated an article published in Nature Sustainability (Available at: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-024-01292-z) were disseminated to broad audiences through news posts such as Michigan State University website (Available at: https://www.canr.msu.edu/news/war-a-biodiversity-enemy-even-in-peaceful-locales#:~:text=Wars%20can%20threaten%20biodiversity%20in,In%20Nature%20Sustainability), Phys.org (Available at: https://phys.org/news/2024-03-war-biodiversity-enemy-peaceful-locales.html), Biodiversity Funders Group, and Reddit.com. These results were also shared with the project team in a presentation delivered by a graduate student research assistant. Objective 8 PI Robinson disseminated information about Objective 8 through professional presentations, including: 1) the Inaugural National Farm Stop Conference (Ann Arbor, MI), and 2) the Indiana University Bloomington Sustainable Food Systems Science research group (100 potential educational case reviewers). Pending dissemination by PI Robinson and graduate students are expected through: 1) chairing a proposed panel on qualitative research about local and regional food systems at the 2024 American Anthropological Association (Tampa), 2) a proposed paper with Mecca Howe on "Proximate and long-term benefits of urban youth-led agriculture: a case study from Indianapolis, Indiana.", and 3) a proposed video ethnographic presentation with Liliana Leon on "Challenges and Strategies for a Sustainable Agriculture in the US Midwest: A Visual Ethnography of Small Farmers." What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?The project expects to accelerate progress on all objectives in Year 2 based on the solid foundation and support systems established in Year 1. Below is a list of planned activities (by objective) scheduled for Year 2 as we move forwards accomplishing our project goals. Objective 1 The following activities are expected to be started/completed in Year 2: Data collection (i.e. interviews) and in-depth analysis of the impact of food shocks across five local and regional food systems (e.g. apple, tomato, wheat, beef, dairy milk), including identifying hotspots in supply chains and relevant mitigation/adaptation strategies. IRB approval for this work has been received and interviews will be scheduled starting immediately. Several manuscripts are in preparation and will be submitted for publication. These include 1) a conceptual model of the impact of shocks to local and regional food supply chains, and 2) an analysis of the impact of a food borne pathogen on the baby formula supply chain. Results will be disseminated to the project team and key stakeholder groups on a regular basis to ensure progress in other objectives and to receive feedback to improve the research in this objective. Objective 2 The following activities are expected to be started/completed in Year 2: Distribute questionnaire, collect data, analyze the apple growers' perception and interpret the results; Write a manuscript based on questionnaire findings, "Understanding Michigan apple growers' perceptions of single and multiple shocks to production and management strategies" (tentative title); Finalize the manuscript, "Impacts of multiple shocks on apple production in the U.S. Midwest and Beyond - Evidence from the literature"; Draft manuscript, "Assessment of extreme weather events damage on apple using machine learning approaches and energy-based models with remote sensing data" (tentative title); Design metrics for evaluating the occurrence weather, climate, and other shocks to apple production and assess interannual variability and long-term trends in theses shocks for the U.S. Midwest; Evaluate farmland resilience and identify its obstacle factors in the U.S. Midwest. Model food flows between counties in the U.S. Midwest for the year 2018-2022; Use MRIO data to determine how shocks in the U.S. Midwest propagate through the full U.S. economy. Objective 3 The following activities are expected to be started/completed in Year 2 based on the preliminary findings and progress of objectives 1 and 2: Develop/refine a typology of shocks on local and regional foods systems, including the characteristics that make food supply chains more/less vulnerable to shocks and an analysis to associated mitigation/adaptation strategies. Development of a survey to assess the severity, frequency and detectability of various shocks on local and regional food systems. This information will be used to calculated risk priority associated with different shocks and to inform decision-making among industry stakeholders and community groups. Conduct focus groups with key stakeholders to review findings, and develop scenarios and/or alternative mitigation strategies to be evaluated in other objectives of the project. Objective 4 In Year 2, we will start designing the agent-based model framework using data collected from Obj 1, 2, and 3. Objective 5 The following activities are expected to be started/completed in Year 2: Aim to develop a method to bring together multi-agent RL (that deals with quantitative data) with multi-agent LLM techniques (that deal with qualitative data). Use network structure and properties from Objective 2, as well as shocks from Objective 3, as environment in which to run multi-agent RL and multi-agent LLM . Connect multi-agent RL and multi-agent LLM techniques with traditional (nonstrategic, largely nonidiosyncratic) ABM approach in Objective 5 . Think through how to support "what-if" and real-time decision-making by people in the field, drawing on the computational framework and architecture developed by Mavin together with the novel research being carried out by others in the team. Objective 6 In Year 2, the team will be finalizing the data analysis plan, procuring/accessing the required data sets, carry out data analysis, and reporting the preliminary findings for both research endeavors. Objective 7 In Year 2, Benchmarking of other shock and contingency planning curricula will be developed in the next reporting period. Collaborators for curriculum development will be identified in MI, IL, and IN. Objective 8 Year 2 activities will include better connecting to other objectives and project personnel, refining the preliminary guidelines & templates for case studies, developing preliminary lesson plans, refining the pilot case studies, compiling a library of narrative and visual cases, and exploring pathways to multi-institution courses. K-12 Meeting with the Project Leadership group will accelerate the development and implementation of the Grow MainStreet platform ahead of schedule. The project will attempt to kick off the teacher training for next school year and start evaluation in July. Objective 9 The following activities are expected to be started/completed in Year 2: The Resiliency Fellows programs will be launched with a call for applications and the selection of the inaugural cohort of fellows. Mentors will also be identified. The 2nd All Hands Project Meeting is scheduled for Fall 2024 (tentatively in Indianapolis) The treasure chest platform will be launched including the development of a new project website.
Impacts What was accomplished under these goals?
The US faces significant food and nutritional security challenges in the face of multiple food system shocks. Our project aims to develop new knowledge, innovative solutions, and a revitalized workforce to build a more resilient local and regional food system (LRFS). During Year 1, our project has built a strong foundation of work to accomplish this aim. Specific outcomes will be realized in subsequent years. Ultimately, however, our project will help LRFS stakeholders make better informed decisions and ensure the nutritional security for the US population, particularly those that are most vulnerable. Below is a summary of Year 1 accomplishments by objective: Objective 1: Investigate key agri-food characteristics To make progress toward this objective, the following activities have been completed in Year 1: 1. Designed a draft interview guide to identify impact of various shocks on selected local and regional food systems. 2. Conducted extensive literature review of characteristics of food supply chains and their vulnerability to food system shocks. Based on this literature review and interviews with key informants (or collaborators), the project team selected apples, tomatoes, beef, wheat, and dairy milk as target local and regional food systems on which to base analysis. This selection is consistent with the MyPlate dietary guidelines. 3. Conducted extensive literature on food system resiliency. 4. Project team defined key terms and concepts to ensure consistency across project. Objective 2: Quantify the impacts of multiple shocks To make progress toward this objective, the following activities have been completed in Year 1: 1. Acquired secondary data (2008 to 2019) on apple production in the US Midwest developed by the USDA; 2. Designed a draft questionnaire to assess Michigan apple growers' perceptions of single and multiple shocks to production and management strategies; 3. Invited extension agents, social scientists, and other experts to review and comment on the questionnaire for apple growers; 4. Reviewed some literature on the impacts of multiple shocks on apple production in US Midwest and beyond; 5. To remotely assess the potential effects of shocks on agricultural production, developed a time series of bi-weekly Standardized Vegetation Index imagery (2001-2023) covering the entire US Midwest region based on metrics of chlorophyll and water content in vegetation canopies, derived from surface reflectance imagery acquired by NASA's MODIS satellite sensor system; 6. Estimated food flows between counties and at the annual time step for the most recent Freight Analysis Framework data release which will be used in the Food Flow Model to determine county-level flows; 7. Obtained multi-regional input-output (MRIO) database for States and major cities in the United States which will be used to determine how shocks propagate through the full economy. Objective 3: Evaluate alternative resilience strategies No accomplishments to report. Work on this objective builds off objectives 1 and 2, and will be completed at a later date. Objective 4: Simulation model To make progress towards this objective, a comprehensive literature review of agent-based models and food system iterations has been completed. Based on the literature review, there are strong indications to use the agent-based models as a proper and effective approach to capture the relationships, connections, and input/output exchange for cash/non-cash items. There are two popular agent-based models in the field - NetLogo and Repast. There are ready-to-use computer programs with specific coding systems to support users in creating specific scenarios for various analyses. Examples of using NetLogo and Repast have been created and presented at professional conferences. Objective 5: AI-enabled decision support system To make progress toward this objective, the following activities have been completed in Year 1: 1. Developed an in-house implementation and deployment of the WarpDrive GPU computing infrastructure for two-level strategic agent-based models, where regular agents employ reinforcement learning to strategically optimize their objectives and a special "governance" agent employs reinforcement learning to develop dynamic policies. Also conducted initial experiments and developed mathematical understanding of the dynamic Stackelberg equilibrium for a related targeted signaling game. 2. Developed computational framework and conducted initial experiments on multi-agent large language models (LLM) that interact for decision-making, so as to incorporate idiosyncratic nature of particular agents. 3. Mavin Global developed a computational stack to incorporate various pieces of existing AI technology together as a form of geospatial chatbot to answer what-if questions about food shocks, and how to adjust around them Objective 6: Impact of food shocks on food security To make progress toward this objective, the team is working on the following two research endeavors: 1. Understanding the effects of external shocks on the food systems and nutritional composition of the US population's food basket. The team is currently working to get access to the data (via data requests, and third-party data agreements) to study this goal. 2. Understanding the economic effects of the recent highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak on the dairy market. The team is currently working on identifying sources of data for dairy production, trade, and prices. The team members are in discussion on determining the appropriate economic model to study the effects of HPAI on dairy markets. Objective 7: Extension curricula To make progress towards this objective, team members met monthly to begin benchmarking existing extension curriculum. Objective members also attended other objective team meetings to integrate research into extension curriculum development and to inform research activities. Objective 8: Education/training In Year 1, Objective 8 team members mapped goals, defined scope, developed timelines, outlined processes, and began prototyping educational materials. Because student preparation, regulatory oversight, and overall goals differ in K-12 and higher education, two sub-groups were established to tackle this objective. The report on Year 1 higher education activities follows. Team activities included hiring two graduate research assistants, building a literature review on integrative science education, identifying learning objectives (skills, content, connections), and exploring possibilities for Big 10 consortium courses. The team also designed human subjects research projects to support case study development. It received IRB approval including two interview instruments. It subsequently piloted two major formats for the higher education case studies: visual ethnography and research paper narratives. Pilot studies for each format were completed. In Year 1, the K12 sub-group completed the design and pilot of the Grow MainStreet educational platform. The K12 outreach team also reviewed the budget and began implementing a plan to both develop teacher education training and deliver evaluative assessment. Objective 9: Integrated platform Project team conducted initial meetings and developed a work plan. Work on this objective will accelerate in Year 2.
Publications
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2024
Citation:
Karakoc, D.B., and M. Konar. (2024). Optimization of national grain imports to balance risk and return: A portfolio theory approach. Environmental Research Food Systems: 1 011001. DOI 10.1088/2976-601X/ad22d1.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Karakoc, D.B., Konar, M., Puma, M.J. et al. Structural chokepoints determine the resilience of agri-food supply chains in the United States. Nat Food 4, 607615 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-023-00793-y
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2024
Citation:
Chai, L., Liu, A., Li, X. et al. Telecoupled impacts of the RussiaUkraine war on global cropland expansion and biodiversity. Nat Sustain 7, 432441 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-024-01292-z
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2024
Citation:
Ruess, P.J., Konar, M., Wanders, N. et al. Total irrigation by crop in the Continental United States from 2008 to 2020. Sci Data 11, 395 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-024-03244-w
- Type:
Theses/Dissertations
Status:
Awaiting Publication
Year Published:
2024
Citation:
Buse Sariman, S. (2024). U.S. Infant Formula Industry: A Qualitative Analysis of a Major Food Safety Recall and Its Implications. MS Thesis, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2024
Citation:
Ramos Bonilla, A. (2024). A Framework to Analyze Resilience of Local and Regional Food Systems in the Midwest of the U.S. Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics, March 27, East Lansing, MI
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2024
Citation:
Liu, J., et al. Building Sustainable and Resilient Agri-food Systems Under Multiple Shocks. Working Paper, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2024
Citation:
Ross, R. B. Building Resilience to Shocks and Disruptions in Local and Regional Food Systems, 2024 Michigan Agri-business Association Winter Conference and Trade Show, The Lansing Center, Lansing , MI, January 10, 2024.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2024
Citation:
12. Collins, B. and Liang, C. (2024). Examining business strategies based on agent-based modeling concepts Tools and examples for researchers and practitioners, National Small Business Institute conference, April 12-14, Orlando, FL.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Submitted
Year Published:
2024
Citation:
R. Baltaji, B. Hemmatian, and L. R. Varshney, Conformity, Confabulation, and Impersonation: Persona Inconstancy in Multi-Agent LLM Collaboration, arXiv:2405.03862 [cs.AI].
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Ross, R. B. Building Resilience to Shocks and Disruptions in Local and Regional Food Systems: An Interdisciplinary Approach, University of Adelaide, Adelaide , Australia, June 26, 2023.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2024
Citation:
Robinson, J. M. Importance of Local/Regional Food Systems and Unmet Needs. National Farm Stop Conference, Ann Arbor, MI, March 1, 2024.
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