Progress 04/01/24 to 03/31/25
Outputs
Target Audience:The project increased its reach to the target audience in its second year. This audience includes a broad range of food system stakeholders, including students and teachers (K-12, undergraduate, and graduate), academic scholars and researchers, extension agents, farmers, food system and supply chains experts, business managers, policy makers, as well as the general public (consumers). Each of these stakeholder groups has an interest in creating a safe and nutritious food system that is resilient to shocks and disruptions. They also have a role to play in achieving this overall objective. Below are specific examples of how the project engaged with some these different types of stakeholders and how they benefitted from our work during the reporting period: Presentations were given at a number of academic and professional conferences (listed elsewhere). These presentations allowed researchers, practitioners and extension agents to be introduced to our novel framework for understanding how food supply chains respond to multiple shocks, along with some early results from our research team. They also facilitated the mutual exchange of ideas and deepened our mutual understanding of the challenges of building resilient agri-food systems. Stakeholders across various food supply chains (farmers, processors, brokers, retailers) and food system experts were interviewed and invited to share their experiences (i.e. impacts) with food shocks and supply chain disruptions. They also shared the strategies that they used (or would use in the future) to enhance the resilience of their food system activities. Graduate students involved in the project received mentorship from leading researchers and experts, training on state-of-the-art research methods, opportunities to present and discuss their work across a variety of audiences, and other valuable experiences to strengthen their communication and professional skills. Project activities developed advanced artificial intelligence methods and simulation models that will support producers and other food supply chain actors in forecasting the impacts of potential shocks on their operations in the Midwest. It is expected that these decision tools will also assist institutions and policymakers in assessing the effects of such shocks under various policy scenarios leading a more resilience food system. Research efforts also focused on consumers, and particularly those most affected by food shocks in terms of their access to food and the nutritional quality of their diet. These efforts inform policymakers and food industry stakeholders and guide their responses/policies/strategies as they address the nutritional security challenges of the U.S. population. Educational efforts focused on students and teachers (Higher Ed and K-12) through the development of curriculum, innovative teaching tools and materials and the dissemination of instructional best practices. The project facilitated teacher training and the delivery of pilot instructional materials to K-12 students. The launch of the Food Shocks website (www.foodshocks.org) and the Food Resilience Fellows Program allowed the project to reach scholars, practitioners, policymakers and the broader public throughout the US, and internationally as well. Our inaugural fellows program cohort consists of participants with a broad diversity of skill and expertise, ranging from supply chain management to community development, doctoral students to industry professionals, and from the US Southeast to the Pacific Northwest. The fellows have been matched with a PI mentor and are expected to strengthen the research, education, and extension impacts of the project activities, as well as extend project activities geographically and topically to increase the overall project impact. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?The project provided training and professional development for principal investigators, graduate students and professional staff. Below are some specific opportunities that were provided: In total, 18 students (1 Undergraduate, 13 MS/PhDs, 4 Post Docs) received training under this project during the reporting period. Training was provided across a wide range of disciplines including anthropology, computer science, economics, education, food science, network analysis, sustainability, among others. Supported the completion of two MS thesis: 1) a qualitative analysis of a food safety recall in the U.S. infant formula industry, and 2) a feasibility study of the adoption of high-oleic soybeans in the U.S. dairy industry. Provided workshops on farmer decision-making. The workshops included information on business planning for associations such as the Partners in Food and Agriculture in Indiana. Other presentations were focused on succession planning as a virtual webinar series and had a national audience in collaboration with the North Central Regional Center for Rural Development and the Southern Rural Development Center. Presentations were virtual. Invited ten individuals to participate in the inaugural Food Shocks Fellowship Program. These fellows will attend the 2025 Annual All Hands Meeting (May) and each fellow has been paired with a mentor for the duration of the Fellowship. Our project manager continued to participate in the SAS Community of Practice for Project Managers/Coordinators as well as professional training programs and self-study to learn institutional systems and protocols, and other project management tools. Various guest speakers were invited to share their expertise with the project team during our weekly meetings. These guest speakers included graduate students that shared research progress updates. Graduate students and post-doctoral researchers were supported to travel to relevant conferences and workshops to build new communication skills, develop professional networks, and share project insights. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Project updates, results and outputs have been disseminated across a wide variety of channels to enhance the reach of the project to target audiences and broader communities of interest. These channels include the project's website (www.foodshocks.org). Below are some specific examples of the project's dissemination efforts by objective over the reporting period. Please note other project dissemination activities are reported elsewhere in the report. Objective 1: Preliminary findings from stakeholder interviews were shared during regular weekly project team meetings and at the project's two All Hands Meetings held throughout this year. Submitted a research proposal for a poster presentation featuring preliminary interview findings to the Council for Supply Chain Management Professionals Academic Research Symposium (https://cscmp.org/). Objective 2: Published an extension article inviting apple growers to participate in a survey for food shocks (https://www.canr.msu.edu/news/apple-growers-needed). The survey was launched at the Great Lakes Expo (https://glexpo.com/). Published research results of a food flows study using real-world data to map the distribution of agri-food commodities onto the highway, railway, and waterway networks across the continental United States. These results were disseminated to extension (https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/05/agri-food-transportation-by-highway-railway-and-waterway-in-the-united-states.html) and research audiences (doi: 10.1038/s43016-025-01128-9). The database of food flows between counties from 2018 to 2022 will be released with publication. Objective 3: The literature review and conceptual framework on the resilience of local and regional food systems to multiple shocks were presented at the International Food and Agribusiness Management World Conference (https://www.ifama.org/) and the Food Distribution Research Society Annual Meeting (https://www.fdrsinc.org/). Objective 5: Published an op-ed on AI safety published in the Chicago Tribune (https://www.chicagotribune.com/2024/08/29/opinion-ai-positivity-safety-openai/). Delivered talks at the India Science Festival--attended by over 25,000 participants, including students, practitioners, and families--and the Pune Public Policy Festival. Launched a startup organization, CulinAI, focused on the intersection of agrifood systems, flavor, and health through AI-driven recipe generation. Also featured on a podcast by the Future Food Institute to discuss this work. Collaborated with the RAND Corporation to release the report on Charting Multiple Courses to Artificial General Intelligence (https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA3691-1.html). Engaged with policymakers in Washington, DC, and Springfield, IL, to discuss the implications of emerging technologies. Delivered several seminars at academic and research institutions across the U.S., sharing insights on AI, policy, and interdisciplinary innovation. Objective 8: Delivered two presentations related to project results at scholarly conferences. These included the American Anthropological Association Annual Meeting (https://americananthro.org/event/2024-aaa-annual-meeting-praxis/) and the Indiana Sustainability and Resilience Conference (https://eri.iu.edu/news-and-events/events/indiana-sustainability-and-resilience-conference.html). A pilot program was conducted at a Michigan High School to test the functionality of learning applications. Over 200 students engaged in this program. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?In Year 3, the project will build on the significant progress achieved in Year 2 and accelerate activities related Objectives 3-9. Below are detailed plans by objective for the next reporting period. Objective 1: We plan to finalize the initial set of stakeholder interviews across the apple, tomato, wheat, beef, and dairy supply chains. Our team will continue summarizing and analyzing the interviews by transcribing recordings, creating detailed summaries, identifying key themes aligned with our research questions, developing a coding framework, and conducting cross-cutting analyses across codes, stakeholders, and supply chains. We also aim to develop several research papers to disseminate findings across project objectives and submit them for publication in academic journals and trade outlets. A master's thesis based on the qualitative research conducted under Objective 1 is expected to be completed and defended. Objective 2: We will continue work on the apple farmer survey and begin developing new surveys targeting farmers of other key commodities, including tomatoes, wheat, beef, and dairy. Concurrently, we will assess the impacts of droughts in the U.S. Midwest and examine how these events interact with broader systemic vulnerabilities. Using Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO) data, we aim to analyze how shocks originating in the Midwest propagate through the broader U.S. economy. Objective 3: We will design, develop, and disseminate a survey focused on supply chain risk to gather insights from key stakeholders and inform ongoing research and policy recommendations.In particular, the supply chain risk survey will collect stakeholder perceptions of food shocks (e.g. potential impact, likelihood of occurrence, detectability)? in the Great Lakes regional food system. It is expected that the survey will be distributed in January via Food MarketMaker (https://foodmarketmaker.com/) network and other relevant outlets. The collected data will be analyzed and used to calculate risk exposure values and risk priorities by industry stakeholders (i.e. grower, processor, retailer), supply chain, food shock/disruption, etc. These values will inform modelling efforts in objectives 4-5. Objective 4: The multi-agent systems model of a local and regional food system will be expanded and enhanced (note the initial model focuses on the apple supply chain). The modeled supply chain will increase in complexity to include alternative marketing channels for fresh vs. processed produce and new decision-making capabilities for processors/wholesalers (e.g. price determination and inventory management). The enhanced model will also incorporate additional agents including suppliers and labor. Furthermore, the modelling efforts will incorporate the food system shocks discovered by objectives 1 and 2 teams. These shocks are expected to include drought, floods, heat, freeze, soil changes, labor shortages (related with Covid), and will be modelled under different scenarios (e.g. independent, concurrent, and sequential shocks). Moreover, we plan to expand the model for other local and regional food system, including beef, wheat, tomato, and milk.To support these modeling efforts, we plan to collect additional weather data from the USDA Midwest Climate Hub as well as production and land use data to calibrate the baseline production level across different producer sizes for more realistic shock impact simulations. Objective 5: We plan to finalize and submit three research papers: one on the principal-agent problem, one on multiagent large language model (LLM) systems, and one on reinforcement learning for policy design. Additionally, we will collaborate with the Objective 4 team to integrate their agent-based model into broader techniques of Agentic Artificial Intelligence. Objective 6: We will investigate whether certain U.S. populations--identified by geographic location--are more vulnerable to food shocks, particularly in terms of the types of foods they purchase and the associated nutritional and health implications. We will also address several thoughtful suggestions from the team to enhance the scope and impact of Objective 6, including: Source of Food Purchases: We will examine how the source of food--such as supermarkets versus convenience stores--varies before, during, and after food shock events, and how these patterns differ across demographic and geographic groups. Nutritional Specificity: Instead of focusing solely on broad food categories (e.g., meats, dairy, produce), we will explore whether we can use the Circana data to identify purchasing trends for specific foodstuffs with distinct nutrient profiles. For example, we aim to differentiate between carrots and leafy greens, or between beef and other animal-source foods, to better assess nutritional implications. Multiple Shocks to a Single Food: We will analyze the effects of multiple or sequential shocks to particular food items--such as eggs--and their impact on purchasing behavior. Panic Buying: We plan to investigate whether panic buying behavior during food shocks leads to measurable distortions in food availability and consumption patterns. While we hypothesize that some of these disruptions may not result in lasting nutritional effects, in other cases--particularly those involving long-term shifts toward less nutritious options such as processed grain-based foods--there may be enduring health consequences. These analyses will help identify vulnerable populations and inform policy recommendations to enhance nutritional resilience in the face of food system shocks. Objective 7: We plan to recruit Extension educators to support the writing, review, and piloting of the Extension curriculum. While awaiting additional research results from other project objectives, we will begin drafting the curriculum content. Objective 8: Higher ED We plan to integrate project research findings and disciplinary perspectives into the development of case studies. During this period, we will pilot and finalize 4 to 6 case studies for use in educational and outreach settings. K12 The K12 team will continue ongoing curriculum development and implementation activities. These activities will include: Development/refinement of educational modules 1-6 Collaboration with school/district leaders and classroom teachers to pilot the modules Establishing qualitative and quantitative measures for analyzing engagement with the modules Creating professional learning tools to supportteachers in utilizing the modules in their classrooms Administering professional learning opportunities for teachers to integrate modules into their classroom instruction. Objective 9 The project will launch the 2nd call for fellows and select up to 10 new fellows to join the project. We will also be building out the Treasure Chest platform and disseminating datasets, results, and publications through the project website (www.foodshocks.org).
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
Objective 1: Conducted over 30 interviews with diverse stakeholders across five supply chains--apples (8), tomatoes (5), wheat (7), beef (7), and dairy (8) to identify and assess vulnerabilities in local and regional food systems. Preliminary results (apple supply chain) indicate that actors have experienced multiple shocks including labor shortages, food safety incidents, weather variability, and market disruptions and have responded by adopting the H-2A labor program, investing in orchard modernization, and diversifying markets and apple varieties. Interview data is being prepared from further qualitative analysis. Objective 2: Designed and implemented an extensive survey questionnaire to assess the types of shocks (including multiple shocks) experienced by U.S. Midwest apple farmers and identify coping strategies used. At the time of reporting, 28 responses had been received, representing 18 Michigan counties and a wide range of orchard and owner characteristics. Quantified the changes in food flows between Freight Analysis Zones from 2018-2022 (Food Flow Model).Our analysis reveals the locations and commodities that were most impacted and resilient to shocks, highlighting disruptions in Midwestern agricultural hubs and prolonged recovery periods in major urban logistics centers. Extended the Food Flow Model to estimate fine-grained spatial and temporal food flows at the county level.We determined that locations with the highest diversity performed better during shocks. Continued efforts to assess the impacts of the severe 2012 drought in the U.S. Midwest using a time series of bi-weekly Standardized Vegetation Index (SVI) imagery. The SVI is derived from metrics of chlorophyll (pigment) content in vegetation canopies, based on optical data collected by NASA's MODIS satellite sensor system Quantified the tradeoff between sustainability, resilience, and cost by transportation mode for agri-food flows Objective 3: Expanded a review literature on how shocks affect food supply chains, and the adaptive strategies employed to build resilience. This review provides the foundation for a recently developed typology of supply chains and a framework for analyzing their resilience to multiple shocks. Conducted a feasibility study of the adoption of high-oleic soybeans (HOS), including 33 stakeholder interviews. Findings reveal that stakeholders recognize the potential of HOS to enhance feed efficiency, reduce reliance on imported fat supplements, and contribute to more sustainable, localized supply chains. However, market growth is constrained by economic uncertainty, infrastructure gaps, legal restrictions tied to patented soybean traits, and market fragmentation. Objective 4: Developed a prototype multi-agent systems model to simulate the apple supply chain (producers, wholesalers, retailers, and consumers). The model incorporates price data to simulated shocks related to price fluctuations and changes in consumer demand as well as soil and weather data to calibrate baseline soil and weather conditions and support the simulation of farm-level shocks. Inventory and purchased quantities are tracked at each supply chain segment. Additionally, the model simulates the revenue generated by each supply chain actor and the expenditures incurred by consumers. Conducted a comprehensive literature review and are in the process of drafting a preliminary review paper that synthesizes recent studies employing multi-agent systems models to analyze the impacts of food shocks. Objective 5: Established a general game-theoretic characterization of the multi-agent reinforcement learning framework in a static setting and developed software to support large-scale simulations. These simulations are currently being used to explore policy design in an exemplary information overload scenario. Advanced multi-agent large language model techniques to address challenges in social cognition; due to their generality, these methods are directly applicable to agrifood system contexts. Adapted classical principal-agent formulations from game theory to the emerging context of agentic AI systems. Objective 6: Acquired access to USDA ERS/CIRCANA retail scanner data and household purchase data from the year 2019- 2023?. Developed a preliminary framework to investigate the impact of COVID-19 on consumer demand for various food groups by studying own-price and cross-price elasticities, income elasticities as well as substitution effects?. This framework will be used to examine if households experienced a "rebound" (a form of resilience) in terms of food category purchases after this food system shock. Developed a preliminary framework to explore "decay rate" of consumption pattern changes (if any) resulting from shocks and exploring "habit formation" among consumers. Objective 7: Developed of a concept paper establishing consensus definitions for key project terms, including 'shocks,' 'rural,' and related concepts. Benchmarked existing curricula on shocks and disasters, including materials from FEMA, university Extension programs, and the Extension Disaster Education Network (EDEN). Our review found that most available curricula primarily address singular shocks or disaster events, with little to no focus on multiple, compounding shocks. This reveals a significant gap in both educational resources and the broader literature, underscoring the need for more comprehensive approaches to shock preparedness and resilience education. Collected data on risk management planning from small and medium-sized farms from December 2024-January 2025 using a Qualtrics panel. The sample included 500 farmers in the US and was part of a survey on integrated decision making from soil to market. Results show that farmers are more likely to have risk management plans for production risks such as weather and pests, marketing risks, and legal risks. Objective 8: Higher ED Developed both the theoretical and practical rationale for using case studies as an educational tool, supported by a literature review, case templates, and teaching and learning guides. Substantive case materials were created for piloting with higher education faculty. A total of four case studies were completed, with four additional drafts in progress. The case studies span three distinct formats: original visual ethnography, peer-reviewed article analysis, original scenario-based cases, and global transfer cases, offering diverse entry points for instructional use and cross-contextual learning. K12 Content development teams have been assembled (MSU K-12 Outreach) and are working on developing an initial curriculum outline to teach students in middle and high school about the food supply chain, nutrition security and food waste. Learning applications within the Mavin platform (Voila and Students2Business) have been developed and enhanced to easily curate information from individuals who work across the food supply chain inbusinesses and institutions. This content is organized into virtual learning fairs that introduce students to food supply chain jobs and educational programs. Students reflect on the information presented in the videos to form logical connections to the skills they are developing and the courses they are taking. A pilot program was conducted at a Michigan High School to test the functionality of these learning applications. Over 200 students engaged in this program. Objective 9: The project website (www.foodshocks.org) was launched. This website serves as an external protocol to the project, where stakeholders can learn about project objectives, investigators, and personnel, activities in research, education, and extension, and results. The Resilience Fellows Program was also launched (via the project website) to build a network of affiliate professionals working in the area of food system resiliency. Over 60 applicants applied to this program and 10 fellows were selected.
Publications
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2024
Citation:
Ramos Bonilla, A. (2024). A Framework to Analyze Resilience of Local and Regional Food Systems to Multiple Shocks, IFAMA 2024 World Conference Food Security Through Innovation and Sustainability, Almeria, Spain, June 17-20, 2024. ?
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2024
Citation:
Ramos Bonilla, A. (2024). A Framework to Analyze Resilience of Local and Regional Food Systems to Multiple Shocks, 65th FDRS Conference Resilient AgriFood Systems, Fajardo, Puerto Rico, October 20-22, 2024.?
- Type:
Peer Reviewed Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2024
Citation:
Chai, L., Liu, A., Li, X., Guo, Z., He, W., Huang, J., & Liu, J. Telecoupled impacts of the RussiaUkraine war on global cropland expansion and biodiversity. Nature Sustainability 7, 432441 (2024).
- Type:
Peer Reviewed Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2024
Citation:
Jia, N., Xia, Z., Li, Y., Yu, X., Wu, X., Li, Y, Su, R., Wang, M., Chen, R. & Liu, J. The Russia-Ukraine war reduced food production and exports with a disparate geographical impact worldwide. Communications Earth & Environment 5, 765 (2024).
- Type:
Peer Reviewed Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2025
Citation:
de Silva, R.F.B., Vi�a, A., de Castro Victoria, D., Batistella, M., Martha Jr., G.B., Moran, E.F., Liu, J. Compound effects of drought and COVID-19 on soybean production in Brazil: Challenges and policy responses. Science of the Total Environment 971: 179047 (2025).
- Type:
Peer Reviewed Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2025
Citation:
Karakoc, D.B., Konar, M. Trade-offs between resilience, sustainability and cost in the US agri-food transportation infrastructure. Nature Food 6, 401409 (2025).
- Type:
Other Journal Articles
Status:
Submitted
Year Published:
2025
Citation:
Liu, J., Winkler, J.A., Ross, R.B., Vi�a, A., Frank, K.A., Konar, M., Liang, C., Marshall, M.I., Nichols, S., Robinson, J.M., Varshney, J.R., Whipple, J.M., Wu, F., Beverly, B., Knipe, D., Knipe, R., Naik, S., Ripmaster, C., & Todey, D. "Building Sustainable and Resilient Agri-food Systems Under Multiple Shocks," submitted.
- Type:
Other Journal Articles
Status:
Submitted
Year Published:
2025
Citation:
T.-S. Lin, M. Choraria, C. Watson, L. R. Varshney, and A. K. Jain, Quantifying Corn Yields of the 20th and 21st Centuries using Machine Learning Models, submitted.
- Type:
Other Journal Articles
Status:
Awaiting Publication
Year Published:
2025
Citation:
Collins, B. and Liang, C. (2025, in print), Applying Agent-Based Modeling to Examine Business Strategies Tools and Examples for Researchers and Practitioners, Small Business Institute Journal.
- Type:
Peer Reviewed Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2024
Citation:
Collins, B. and Liang, C. (2024). Using NetLogo to Build an Agent-Based Model for Teaching Purposes at the Graduate Student Level. Applied Economics Teaching Resources. https://www.aetrjournal.org/volumes/volume-7-2025/volume-7-issue-3-june-2025/teaching-and-educational-methods/using-netlogo-to-build-an-agent-based-model-for-teaching-purposes-at-the-graduate-student-level.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2024
Citation:
Colins, B. and Liang, C. (2024). Agent-Based Modeling to explore social, economic, and environmental links within the North Carolina poultry industry. SUNY Oneonta Life of the Mind Annual Conference, Oneonta, NY, November 14, 2024.??
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2024
Citation:
Collins, B. and Liang, C. (2024). Examining business strategies based on agent-based modeling concepts Tools and examples for researchers and practitioners, Small Business Institute Conference, April 12-14, Orlando, FL.?
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2025
Citation:
Robinson, J. M. and A. Boateng. (2005). Empowering Urban Youth: FHC's STEAM Farm Camp as a Pathway to Environmental Stewardship and Resilient Community. Indiana Sustainability and Resilience Conference. Bloomington, IN. Feb. 28.?
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2024
Citation:
Robinson, J. M. (2024). Transforming Food Systems: Praxis for Sustainable Agriculture and Social Justice. Session Chair. The American Anthropological Association Annual Conference. Tampa, Florida. Nov. 21.?
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2024
Citation:
Burris, M. and J. M. Robinson. (2024). Proximate and long-term benefits of urban youth-led agriculture: a case study from Indianapolis, Indiana. The American Anthropological Association Annual Conference. Tampa, Florida. Nov. 21.?
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2024
Citation:
Leon, L. and J. M. Robinson. (2024). Challenges and Strategies for a Sustainable Agriculture in the US Midwest: A Visual Ethnography of Small Farmers. The American Anthropological Association Annual Conference. Tampa, Florida. Nov. 21.?
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2025
Citation:
Van Zeghbroeck, J., Winkler, J., Vi�a, A., Liu, J., & Rothwell, N. (2025). Apple Growers Needed. Michigan State University Extension, March 10. https://www.canr.msu.edu/news/apple-growers-needed
- Type:
Websites
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2025
Citation:
https://foodshocks.org/
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2024
Citation:
Van Zeghbroeck, J., Ross, B., Winkler, J., Vina, A., Terrell, A., Liu, J. (2024). Food Shocks: Building Resilience to Shocks and Disruptions in Local and Regional Food Systems in the US Midwest Region and Beyond. Great Lakes Farm EXPO, December, Grand Rapids, MI.
- Type:
Peer Reviewed Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2025
Citation:
Howe, M., & Robinson, J. (2025). Urban agriculture education for teens: A multidimensional study of positive psychosocial and metacognitive outcomes. Journal of Agriculture, Food Systems, and Community Development, 14(2), 339354.
? ?
- Type:
Other Journal Articles
Status:
Under Review
Year Published:
2025
Citation:
Robinson, Seymour, Jin, & Whiteman. Using Ethnographic Methods to Center Student Experiences in Small Learning Groups for Belonging, DFW Reduction, and Student Success.?Education Sciences. Under review.
- Type:
Peer Reviewed Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2025
Citation:
Marcellino, W., Varshney, L., Shenk, A., Robles, N. M.,& Boudreaux, B. (2025). Charting Multiple Courses to Artificial General Intelligence. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation. https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA3691-1.html.
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2025
Citation:
Konar, M., & Karakoc. D. B. (2025). "Agri-Food Transportation by Highway, Railway, and Waterway in the United States." farmdoc daily (15):97, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, May 28, 2025. https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/05/agri-food-transportation-by-highway-railway-and-waterway-in-the-united-states.html
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Progress 04/01/23 to 03/31/24
Outputs
Target Audience:The project reached arange of stakeholders in its first year, including students (K12 and University), academics and researchers, farmers, food system and supply chains experts, as well as the general public (consumers). Below are examples of the project engaged with these different target audiences: media releases about the project and associated published research findings were distributed on different online platforms informingstakeholders (and the general public) about the project goals, the impact of the Ukraine-Russia war on biodiversityand thepotential chokepoints in U.S. food supply chains. a dataset was publicly released to share data on crop irrigation. local and regional food systems experts and collaborators were interviewed to help assist in the selection of those supply chains that will be targeted by the project(criteria:impact, vulnerability, diversity). pilot visual interviews were conducted with farmers, grocers and customersof local and regional food. K12 students engaged with our piloteducational platform demonstrating its effectiveness as a tool in educating middle school students on food shocks and local food supply chains, andbuildingcompetencies (skills and applications)critical to resilience. preliminary results from a extensive literature review were shared with current and prospective graduate students on correlation between supply chain characteristics and vulnerability of those systems to shocks. Changes/Problems:No major changes/problems have been identified and realized by the project in Year 1. Project communication and integration among objectives remains a priority and improvements in the area will be ongoing. There have been some minor tweaks to the organization of the project as activities were implemented in Year 1. These changes were madein order to streamline efficiency, communication and to resolve gaps in programming that were identified by the project teams. They include splitting the management of Objective 8 into two sub-sections: 1) Higher Education, and 2) K-12 Education, hiring a dedicated communication manager, and reassigning personnel (temporarily and permanently). Adjustments were also made to project activities in order to account for data gaps (e.g. apple production was found to be fragmented across various sources leading to inconsistencies),advances in the field (e.g. new efforts in multi-agent LLMs), and project lags between research and education/outreach initiatives. The latter was mitigated by literature reviews of state-of-the-art educational and extension programming and the development of templates/pilot projects. Finally, we have accelerated the implemented of the K12 educational platform (Grow MainStreet) due to the unexpected rapid progress of its development and interest among the stakeholder community. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?The project provided training and professional development for principal investigators, graduate students and professional staff. Below are some specifics opportunities that were provided: Co-PI Varshney served as a White House Fellow, in the National Security Council staff at the White House, where he contributed to national and international AI policy efforts, including efforts to bring U.S. and EU together on agriculture+AI research. Our project manager participated in professional training programs and self-study to learn MSU systems and protocols, and project management tools. Various guest speakers were invited to share their expertise with the project team during our weekly meetings. This included a PD/PI of another NIFA Sustainable Agricultural Systems who provided insights on project management, team building, project evaluation and reporting. Graduate students and post-doctoral researchers have been hired to engage in the project and received training in survey and interview design, qualitative analysis, among other disciplines. Several of these students have also been supported to travel to relevant conferences and workshops. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?The project has disseminated the limited results of the project in several different ways to reach communities of interest. Below are examples of how results have been disseminated by objective. The overall project scope and objectives were shared with academic audiences (PI Ross gave an invited presentation to the University of Adelaide), industry trade associations (PI Ross gave an invited presentation to the Michigan Agribusiness Association), and the general public (via press releases made by each partner institution). Objective 1 The activities and preliminary results associated with Objective 1 were disseminated through public presentations (Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics Graduate Symposium), abstracts to academic conferences (International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, Food Distribution Research Society) and a Masters' thesis. Preliminary results were also shared with the project team on multiple occasions via presentations offered by graduate student research assistants. Objective 2 Results associated an article published in Nature Sustainability (Available at: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-024-01292-z) were disseminated to broad audiences through news posts such as Michigan State University website (Available at: https://www.canr.msu.edu/news/war-a-biodiversity-enemy-even-in-peaceful-locales#:~:text=Wars%20can%20threaten%20biodiversity%20in,In%20Nature%20Sustainability), Phys.org (Available at: https://phys.org/news/2024-03-war-biodiversity-enemy-peaceful-locales.html), Biodiversity Funders Group, and Reddit.com. These results were also shared with the project team in a presentation delivered by a graduate student research assistant. Objective 8 PI Robinson disseminated information about Objective 8 through professional presentations, including: 1) the Inaugural National Farm Stop Conference (Ann Arbor, MI), and 2) the Indiana University Bloomington Sustainable Food Systems Science research group (100 potential educational case reviewers). Pending dissemination by PI Robinson and graduate students are expected through: 1) chairing a proposed panel on qualitative research about local and regional food systems at the 2024 American Anthropological Association (Tampa), 2) a proposed paper with Mecca Howe on "Proximate and long-term benefits of urban youth-led agriculture: a case study from Indianapolis, Indiana.", and 3) a proposed video ethnographic presentation with Liliana Leon on "Challenges and Strategies for a Sustainable Agriculture in the US Midwest: A Visual Ethnography of Small Farmers." What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?The project expects to accelerate progress on all objectives in Year 2 based on the solid foundation and support systems established in Year 1. Below is a list of planned activities (by objective) scheduled for Year 2 as we move forwards accomplishing our project goals. Objective 1 The following activities are expected to be started/completed in Year 2: Data collection (i.e. interviews) and in-depth analysis of the impact of food shocks across five local and regional food systems (e.g. apple, tomato, wheat, beef, dairy milk), including identifying hotspots in supply chains and relevant mitigation/adaptation strategies. IRB approval for this work has been received and interviews will be scheduled starting immediately. Several manuscripts are in preparation and will be submitted for publication. These include 1) a conceptual model of the impact of shocks to local and regional food supply chains, and 2) an analysis of the impact of a food borne pathogen on the baby formula supply chain. Results will be disseminated to the project team and key stakeholder groups on a regular basis to ensure progress in other objectives and to receive feedback to improve the research in this objective. Objective 2 The following activities are expected to be started/completed in Year 2: Distribute questionnaire, collect data, analyze the apple growers' perception and interpret the results; Write a manuscript based on questionnaire findings, "Understanding Michigan apple growers' perceptions of single and multiple shocks to production and management strategies" (tentative title); Finalize the manuscript, "Impacts of multiple shocks on apple production in the U.S. Midwest and Beyond - Evidence from the literature"; Draft manuscript, "Assessment of extreme weather events damage on apple using machine learning approaches and energy-based models with remote sensing data" (tentative title); Design metrics for evaluating the occurrence weather, climate, and other shocks to apple production and assess interannual variability and long-term trends in theses shocks for the U.S. Midwest; Evaluate farmland resilience and identify its obstacle factors in the U.S. Midwest. Model food flows between counties in the U.S. Midwest for the year 2018-2022; Use MRIO data to determine how shocks in the U.S. Midwest propagate through the full U.S. economy. Objective 3 The following activities are expected to be started/completed in Year 2 based on the preliminary findings and progress of objectives 1 and 2: Develop/refine a typology of shocks on local and regional foods systems, including the characteristics that make food supply chains more/less vulnerable to shocks and an analysis to associated mitigation/adaptation strategies. Development of a survey to assess the severity, frequency and detectability of various shocks on local and regional food systems. This information will be used to calculated risk priority associated with different shocks and to inform decision-making among industry stakeholders and community groups. Conduct focus groups with key stakeholders to review findings, and develop scenarios and/or alternative mitigation strategies to be evaluated in other objectives of the project. Objective 4 In Year 2, we will start designing the agent-based model framework using data collected from Obj 1, 2, and 3. Objective 5 The following activities are expected to be started/completed in Year 2: Aim to develop a method to bring together multi-agent RL (that deals with quantitative data) with multi-agent LLM techniques (that deal with qualitative data). Use network structure and properties from Objective 2, as well as shocks from Objective 3, as environment in which to run multi-agent RL and multi-agent LLM . Connect multi-agent RL and multi-agent LLM techniques with traditional (nonstrategic, largely nonidiosyncratic) ABM approach in Objective 5 . Think through how to support "what-if" and real-time decision-making by people in the field, drawing on the computational framework and architecture developed by Mavin together with the novel research being carried out by others in the team. Objective 6 In Year 2, the team will be finalizing the data analysis plan, procuring/accessing the required data sets, carry out data analysis, and reporting the preliminary findings for both research endeavors. Objective 7 In Year 2, Benchmarking of other shock and contingency planning curricula will be developed in the next reporting period. Collaborators for curriculum development will be identified in MI, IL, and IN. Objective 8 Year 2 activities will include better connecting to other objectives and project personnel, refining the preliminary guidelines & templates for case studies, developing preliminary lesson plans, refining the pilot case studies, compiling a library of narrative and visual cases, and exploring pathways to multi-institution courses. K-12 Meeting with the Project Leadership group will accelerate the development and implementation of the Grow MainStreet platform ahead of schedule. The project will attempt to kick off the teacher training for next school year and start evaluation in July. Objective 9 The following activities are expected to be started/completed in Year 2: The Resiliency Fellows programs will be launched with a call for applications and the selection of the inaugural cohort of fellows. Mentors will also be identified. The 2nd All Hands Project Meeting is scheduled for Fall 2024 (tentatively in Indianapolis) The treasure chest platform will be launched including the development of a new project website.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
The US faces significant food and nutritional security challenges in the face of multiple food system shocks. Our project aims to develop new knowledge, innovative solutions, and a revitalized workforce to build a more resilient local and regional food system (LRFS). During Year 1, our project has built a strong foundation of work to accomplish this aim. Specific outcomes will be realized in subsequent years. Ultimately, however, our project will help LRFS stakeholders make better informed decisions and ensure the nutritional security for the US population, particularly those that are most vulnerable. Below is a summary of Year 1 accomplishments by objective: Objective 1: Investigate key agri-food characteristics To make progress toward this objective, the following activities have been completed in Year 1: 1. Designed a draft interview guide to identify impact of various shocks on selected local and regional food systems. 2. Conducted extensive literature review of characteristics of food supply chains and their vulnerability to food system shocks. Based on this literature review and interviews with key informants (or collaborators), the project team selected apples, tomatoes, beef, wheat, and dairy milk as target local and regional food systems on which to base analysis. This selection is consistent with the MyPlate dietary guidelines. 3. Conducted extensive literature on food system resiliency. 4. Project team defined key terms and concepts to ensure consistency across project. Objective 2: Quantify the impacts of multiple shocks To make progress toward this objective, the following activities have been completed in Year 1: 1. Acquired secondary data (2008 to 2019) on apple production in the US Midwest developed by the USDA; 2. Designed a draft questionnaire to assess Michigan apple growers' perceptions of single and multiple shocks to production and management strategies; 3. Invited extension agents, social scientists, and other experts to review and comment on the questionnaire for apple growers; 4. Reviewed some literature on the impacts of multiple shocks on apple production in US Midwest and beyond; 5. To remotely assess the potential effects of shocks on agricultural production, developed a time series of bi-weekly Standardized Vegetation Index imagery (2001-2023) covering the entire US Midwest region based on metrics of chlorophyll and water content in vegetation canopies, derived from surface reflectance imagery acquired by NASA's MODIS satellite sensor system; 6. Estimated food flows between counties and at the annual time step for the most recent Freight Analysis Framework data release which will be used in the Food Flow Model to determine county-level flows; 7. Obtained multi-regional input-output (MRIO) database for States and major cities in the United States which will be used to determine how shocks propagate through the full economy. Objective 3: Evaluate alternative resilience strategies No accomplishments to report. Work on this objective builds off objectives 1 and 2, and will be completed at a later date. Objective 4: Simulation model To make progress towards this objective, a comprehensive literature review of agent-based models and food system iterations has been completed. Based on the literature review, there are strong indications to use the agent-based models as a proper and effective approach to capture the relationships, connections, and input/output exchange for cash/non-cash items. There are two popular agent-based models in the field - NetLogo and Repast. There are ready-to-use computer programs with specific coding systems to support users in creating specific scenarios for various analyses. Examples of using NetLogo and Repast have been created and presented at professional conferences. Objective 5: AI-enabled decision support system To make progress toward this objective, the following activities have been completed in Year 1: 1. Developed an in-house implementation and deployment of the WarpDrive GPU computing infrastructure for two-level strategic agent-based models, where regular agents employ reinforcement learning to strategically optimize their objectives and a special "governance" agent employs reinforcement learning to develop dynamic policies. Also conducted initial experiments and developed mathematical understanding of the dynamic Stackelberg equilibrium for a related targeted signaling game. 2. Developed computational framework and conducted initial experiments on multi-agent large language models (LLM) that interact for decision-making, so as to incorporate idiosyncratic nature of particular agents. 3. Mavin Global developed a computational stack to incorporate various pieces of existing AI technology together as a form of geospatial chatbot to answer what-if questions about food shocks, and how to adjust around them Objective 6: Impact of food shocks on food security To make progress toward this objective, the team is working on the following two research endeavors: 1. Understanding the effects of external shocks on the food systems and nutritional composition of the US population's food basket. The team is currently working to get access to the data (via data requests, and third-party data agreements) to study this goal. 2. Understanding the economic effects of the recent highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak on the dairy market. The team is currently working on identifying sources of data for dairy production, trade, and prices. The team members are in discussion on determining the appropriate economic model to study the effects of HPAI on dairy markets. Objective 7: Extension curricula To make progress towards this objective, team members met monthly to begin benchmarking existing extension curriculum. Objective members also attended other objective team meetings to integrate research into extension curriculum development and to inform research activities. Objective 8: Education/training In Year 1, Objective 8 team members mapped goals, defined scope, developed timelines, outlined processes, and began prototyping educational materials. Because student preparation, regulatory oversight, and overall goals differ in K-12 and higher education, two sub-groups were established to tackle this objective. The report on Year 1 higher education activities follows. Team activities included hiring two graduate research assistants, building a literature review on integrative science education, identifying learning objectives (skills, content, connections), and exploring possibilities for Big 10 consortium courses. The team also designed human subjects research projects to support case study development. It received IRB approval including two interview instruments. It subsequently piloted two major formats for the higher education case studies: visual ethnography and research paper narratives. Pilot studies for each format were completed. In Year 1, the K12 sub-group completed the design and pilot of the Grow MainStreet educational platform. The K12 outreach team also reviewed the budget and began implementing a plan to both develop teacher education training and deliver evaluative assessment. Objective 9: Integrated platform Project team conducted initial meetings and developed a work plan. Work on this objective will accelerate in Year 2.
Publications
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2024
Citation:
Karakoc, D.B., and M. Konar. (2024). Optimization of national grain imports to balance risk and return: A portfolio theory approach. Environmental Research Food Systems: 1 011001. DOI 10.1088/2976-601X/ad22d1.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Karakoc, D.B., Konar, M., Puma, M.J. et al. Structural chokepoints determine the resilience of agri-food supply chains in the United States. Nat Food 4, 607615 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-023-00793-y
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2024
Citation:
Chai, L., Liu, A., Li, X. et al. Telecoupled impacts of the RussiaUkraine war on global cropland expansion and biodiversity. Nat Sustain 7, 432441 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-024-01292-z
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2024
Citation:
Ruess, P.J., Konar, M., Wanders, N. et al. Total irrigation by crop in the Continental United States from 2008 to 2020. Sci Data 11, 395 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-024-03244-w
- Type:
Theses/Dissertations
Status:
Awaiting Publication
Year Published:
2024
Citation:
Buse Sariman, S. (2024). U.S. Infant Formula Industry: A Qualitative Analysis of a Major Food Safety Recall and Its Implications. MS Thesis, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2024
Citation:
Ramos Bonilla, A. (2024). A Framework to Analyze Resilience of Local and Regional Food Systems in the Midwest of the U.S. Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics, March 27, East Lansing, MI
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2024
Citation:
Liu, J., et al. Building Sustainable and Resilient Agri-food Systems Under Multiple Shocks. Working Paper, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2024
Citation:
Ross, R. B. Building Resilience to Shocks and Disruptions in Local and Regional Food Systems, 2024 Michigan Agri-business Association Winter Conference and Trade Show, The Lansing Center, Lansing , MI, January 10, 2024.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2024
Citation:
12. Collins, B. and Liang, C. (2024). Examining business strategies based on agent-based modeling concepts Tools and examples for researchers and practitioners, National Small Business Institute conference, April 12-14, Orlando, FL.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Submitted
Year Published:
2024
Citation:
R. Baltaji, B. Hemmatian, and L. R. Varshney, Conformity, Confabulation, and Impersonation: Persona Inconstancy in Multi-Agent LLM Collaboration, arXiv:2405.03862 [cs.AI].
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Ross, R. B. Building Resilience to Shocks and Disruptions in Local and Regional Food Systems: An Interdisciplinary Approach, University of Adelaide, Adelaide , Australia, June 26, 2023.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2024
Citation:
Robinson, J. M. Importance of Local/Regional Food Systems and Unmet Needs. National Farm Stop Conference, Ann Arbor, MI, March 1, 2024.
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