Source: MICHIGAN STATE UNIV submitted to NRP
PARTNERSHIP: MEAL CLICKS: TRACKING CONSUMER PREFERENCES AND DEMAND FOR FOOD CONSUMED AWAY FROM HOME ORDERED ONLINE
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
ACTIVE
Funding Source
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
1029824
Grant No.
2023-67023-39109
Cumulative Award Amt.
$799,974.00
Proposal No.
2022-10635
Multistate No.
(N/A)
Project Start Date
May 15, 2023
Project End Date
May 14, 2027
Grant Year
2023
Program Code
[A1641]- Agriculture Economics and Rural Communities: Markets and Trade
Recipient Organization
MICHIGAN STATE UNIV
(N/A)
EAST LANSING,MI 48824
Performing Department
AFRE
Non Technical Summary
In 2021, over half (53%) of all U.S. food expenditures were purchases of food prepared away from home (FAFH) (USDA ERS, 2022). Yet, much of the existing literature on food demand and nutrition focuses on food prepared at home (FAH). Partially motivated by the absence of timely secondary data, there is an urgent need to understand FAFH consumption patterns and encourage healthier food choices. This is especially true in online settings, where digital food environments and meal delivery services have accelerated FAFH purchasing.The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the increased use of, and reliance on, online food environments (Hobbs, 2020). While only 24% of consumers used online services to order food from restaurants in 2019, 41% used it in 2020 (Edmondson et al., 2021). Online meal orders are expected to grow, as demonstrated by the explosion of online U.S. food delivery platforms now valued at $63 billion (Statista, 2022). The food environment in which we make choices impacts consumption habits and public health outcomes (WHO, 2015), as research shows that eating behavior, satisfaction, and satiety change based on the eating location (Hendricks et al., 2021). Indeed, frequent meals away from home have been linked to reduced diet quality (Binkley and Liu, 2019), increased caloric intake (USDA ERS, 2010), and obesity (Altman et al., 2015), among other chronic health conditions. It is unlikely that the trend towards FAFH will reverse, creating an urgent need to understand consumer decision-making processes in online FAFH environments and develop strategies to empower and encourage consumers to make healthier FAFH choices (The White House, 2022).This need calls for novel research evaluating which market incentives and policy interventions could promote healthier eating habits in online settings. While there are interventions and food policies that can nudge purchasing and consumption behavior in physical food environments, these conventional methods may not translate one-to-one to digital settings. Most notably, there is potential to incorporate behavioral change techniques into the digital food environments, steering consumers toward healthier meal options without removing freedom of choice (Stephens et al., 2020). Indeed, online food environments can make market interventions and food policies more salient for consumers.This proposed research project fills these gaps in the literature by introducing Meal Clicks, a survey that tracks consumer preferences and demand for FAFH ordered in digital environments over time, while also exploring the healthiness of consumer food choices. FAFH demand fluctuates due to many factors, including generational change, policy shifts, food safety issues, and price changes. Meal Clicks will capture such variation in a realistic and timely manner, informing producers and agribusinesses about current and emerging consumer trends. Along with tracking purchasing habits and demographics, Meal Clicks will also determine the effects of policy and digital interventions that facilitate change in online FAFH demand. In doing so, Meal Clicks will provide policymakers and the food industry with critical information on effective interventions that promote healthier meal choice in FAFH environments.
Animal Health Component
100%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
(N/A)
Applied
100%
Developmental
(N/A)
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
60760103010100%
Knowledge Area
607 - Consumer Economics;

Subject Of Investigation
6010 - Individuals;

Field Of Science
3010 - Economics;
Goals / Objectives
Partially motivated by the absence of timely secondary data sources, much of the current literature on food demand, preferences, and consumption habits focus on food prepared at home (FAH). In these instances, insights from food prepared away from home (FAFH) are omitted. This shortcoming is problematic as FAFH now accounts for nearly half of all food expenditures (USDA 2021), with digitalization and meal delivery services increasing FAFH consumption through online ordering.The food environment in which we make choices has a large impact on consumption, but there is an absence of timely and accurate data that can causally identify FAFH demand and purchasing patterns. To understand the effects of increased FAFH consumption, it is important to determine the extent to which online FAFH ordering is increasing, understand food choice in online purchasing settings, and identify the short- and long-term health consequences of these decisions. There is also a need of new research evaluating which market incentives and policy interventions are most effective in promoting healthy eating behavior in online settings. While there are interventions and food policies that can nudge purchasing and consumption behavior in physical food environments, these conventional methods may not translate to digital settings.This proposed research project identifies these opportunities by introducing Click Meals, a survey that tracks consumer preferences and demand for FAFH ordered in digital environments. Along with tracking purchasing habits, the survey also determines the effects of various interventions that facilitate change in FAFH demand for healthier meals and dietary outcomes. The specific objectives are to:Objective 1: Develop and introduce a new consumer survey, named Meal Clicks, to track consumer demand and the healthfulness of consumer dietary choices for FAFH ordered online using food basket-based experiments.Objective 2: Determine the link between changes in online FAFH demand, internal characteristics (e.g., demographics, lifestyle and health status), and external factors (e.g., news stories, changes in prices and other economic conditions that affect the food industry).Objective 3. Determine the impact of food policy options (e.g., nutritional labels, SNAP, calorie-based tax) and just-in-time (JIT) digital interventions (e.g., food swap recommendations, basket healthiness feedback, personalized nutritional advice) implemented in online FAFH ordering environments on consumer demand and the healthfulness of consumer dietary choices.Objective 4. Determine the impact of multicomponent interventions in FAFH online ordering environments on consumer demand and the healthfulness of consumer dietary choices using an informed experimental design.The findings from this project will offer insights on ways to optimize digital meal ordering platforms and contribute to the transition to healthier FAFH consumption. This will lead to a more competitive food industry and support the development of effective policies that strengthen consumer empowerment and access to healthy food choices (The White House, 2022).
Project Methods
We will develop a novel consumer survey that tracks preferences and demand for online FAFH. The survey, named Meal Clicks, will be developed and implemented by the project personnel and delivered on a tri-monthly basis for three years. Meal Clicks will include a FAFH-BBCE in a mock-up online meal ordering platform. The FAFH-BBCE will be developed to closely mimic the consumer experience when ordering meals online. Respondents will freely compose their food baskets by selecting the quantity of each selected food item, as in actual meal ordering situations. By allowing consumers to select food items and their respective quantities, this study extends the work by Caputo and Lusk (2022), estimating complementarity and substitution patterns between food items while also accounting for satiation effects.One of the key features of the BBCE approach is that the data can be analyzed using various modeling approaches: random utility models (multinomial logit model, mixed logit model, etc.) (Caputo and Lusk, 2019), AIDS models (e.g., Piggott and Marsh 2011), Multivariate Logistics (MVL) models (Song and Chintagunta 2006; Caputo and Lusk 2022) and multiple discrete-continuous extreme value (MDCEV) models (Bhat 2008). Estimating these models provides insights into consumer demand for online FAFH while identifying own- and cross-price elasticities to explore substitution and complementarity patterns between food items. We will explore these modeling approaches and extend the MDCEV proposed by Bhat (2008) to include a non-additively separable (N-AS) utility function (Bhat et al. 2015; Pellegrini et al. 2021). Using the estimates from these models, we will then determine and track the healthiness of consumer dietary choices over time. To this end, we will follow two steps (see Section 2.3): (i) use the Nutritionix website (link) to derive the nutrient content for each of the dishes included in the BBCE (calories, fat, carbohydrates, etc.) and (ii) multiply the probability of ordering each item with the selected nutritional components to compute the average nutritional composition for each survey edition.The remaining survey data will be analyzed using various statistical techniques, such as exploratory factor analysis and cluster analysis. The primary goal of this analysis is to segment consumers according to the main determinants of food choice: lifestyle, health status, food values and demographics. Regression analysis will also be employed to measure the impact of internal characteristics (e.g., demographics, lifestyles, etc.) on consumer demand for different FAFH product items. Results from these analyses will then be linked to the FAFH-BBCE data to determine how internal characteristics influence consumer preferences and demand for FAFH. To explore how external factors influence FAFH consumption behavior, we will explore whether the FAFH-BBCE results are affected by changes in actual market prices.

Progress 05/15/23 to 05/14/24

Outputs
Target Audience:Consumers or the public, researchers, students, policy makers.The project information will be shared through a project website, which will include a summary of the results of each Meal Clicks edition. This will help the stakeholders to follow the project with its findings. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?The project involved a postdoctoral researcher who collaborated with Drs. Caputo and van Loo on developing a survey and finalizing the Meal Clicks BBCE app. Through these tasks, the postdoc gained experience in developing consumer food choice studies and conducting market analysis to determine food items for inclusion in the app. Throughout this process, the postdoc had frequent meetings in person with Dr. Caputo, during which he received technical guidance and gained insights into the broader implications of the research. In addition, the post-doc met with Dr. Van Loo via zoom to finalize the survey. These combined mentoring activities allowed the post-Doc to learn how to design a consumer survey and the BBCE experiment. Further, the postdoc had the opportunity to develop his own idea related to consumer food research, which aligns with the project's focus and explores food insecurity and food How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? Nothing Reported What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?For the next reporting period, we plan to fully achieve objectives 1 and 2. Throughout Year 2, we will gather data every quarter from the Meal Clicks survey we developed in Year 1. This will allow us to study consumption trends related to food away from home (FAFH) and whether and how this is affected by internal and external factors. Internal factors include meal ordering history, lifestyle choices, health status, and demographics, while external factors involve awareness of issues like food safety, the COVID-19 pandemic, economic updates, and other disruptions in the food supply chain. Various statistical methods will be used to analyze these influences on consumer behavior. In addition, we plan to partially achieve objective 3 of the project by the end of Year 2; namely, to assess the effects of various food policy changes on FAFH demand and the healthfulness of consumer diets. The implementation of just-in-time (JIT) interventions is also scheduled for the end of Year 2. Lastly, we plan to create a website where project details will be shared with the public. This website will feature a newsletter segment containing condensed summaries of the findings from each Meal Clicks edition. The research findings will be presented at academic conferences, including the annual conference of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association. These academic presentations will enable feedback on the study as we prepare manuscripts for publication while also increasing project awareness.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? In line with objective 1, we have developed a consumer survey, named, Meal Clicks, to track consumer demand for FAFH ordered online. The survey includes 6 sections. The initial section consisted of screening questions to assess respondents' eligibility based on two criteria: being at least 18 years old and having ordered meals from various dining establishments for delivery or take-out within the past month, requiring a "Yes" response to both. Subsequently, a basket-based choice experiment (BBCE) was introduced in the second section, wherein participants were given the freedom to construct their food baskets from a selection of 21 meal items (including quantity) across nine different scenarios with varying item prices while maintaining a consistent total of 21 items in each scenario. Following this, data was gathered on consumer preferences and demand for FAFH, covering aspects such as consumption methods, spending habits, and delivery preferences. Subsequent section focused on soliciting information regarding preferred tips and delivery charges. We evaluated food insecurity by administering either a short (6 questions) or a long (18 questions) questionnaire developed by the USDA, with respondents randomly assigned to one version or the other. Demographic and dietary inquiries were followed by open-ended questions aimed at capturing respondents' observations on changes in their food delivery or takeout habits over the past year, along with any general comments regarding the survey.

Publications