Progress 07/01/23 to 06/30/24
Outputs
Target Audience:In the first year of the project, we focused on constructing the supply chain network for poultry. The primaryaudience for this work includesacademic researchers. Although there is extensive literature on network analysis, research specifically related to food product supply chain is still lacking. Our constructed network mapsthe entire shipment process, from processing plants to wholesalers and retail markets. This linkage enables the researchers in the field to understand changes inthe supply chain over time and across space and explore potential bottlenecks and vulnerable hotspots in the meat supply chain. This research is also of interest to meat producers and downstream stakeholders.The constructed network allows us to explore supply shocks and their implications for retail markets, food insecurity, and nutritional consequences for local communities.Based on thisnetwork, we will seek to quantify the consequences of large-scale food safety recalls of meat products and natural disasters, such asthe COVID-19 pandemic, on food insecurity. We willdevelopan empirical framework toidentifysupply disruptions and consumer responses induced by such crises. With the intent to ensure food security, our work will help the US agricultural and food industries recognize key vulnerable points in supply chains and prepare for future disruptions. Changes/Problems:In the original proposal, we planned to construct the supply chain networks for poultry and several other meat products, such asbeef, pork, and seafood. Our plan was to utilize the "product description" reported in the Commodity Flow Surveys to distinguish beef and pork products. After examining the data, we realized that the product descriptions are only available for the 2017 survey and are far from complete to make these distinctions. Therefore, we worked on the network for poultry first duringthe first year. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?One graduate student, Yuhan Wang, has worked on the project for the first year. He gained knowledge and skills inunderstanding commodity flows andrelated regional marketsand he applied machine learning techniques to classify meat flows to construct the supply chain networks. This work will be part of one of his dissertation chapters. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?After the results of the constructed network are disclosed by the Census Bureau, likely by the end of 2024, we plan to summarize them into a paper and present themat the annual meeting of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in the summer of 2025. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?The plan for next year is to accomplish the second goal listed above:"Quantify economic impacts of supply disruptions and income shocks related to the market crises; specifically, impacts related to meat product quantities and prices." To do so, we are preparing to estimate an empirical model of commodity flows and link the supply-side model to a demand model of downstream retail markets.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
The first goal of "construct and characterize supply chain networks" for poultry products was achieved in the first year. Using the commodity shipment records surveyed from the Commodity Flow Surveys, we have constructed the supply chain network for poultry-related products, including fresh and frozen poultry products, for the years 2007, 2012, and 2017. The networks primarily contains three types of meat flows: from processing plans to meat wholesalers, from meat wholesalers to retail markets, and directly from processing plants to retail markets. All network linkages are constructed at the zip code level, meaning the network nodes are zip codes across the US. The network linkages are recorded as the quantity and values of the corresponding flows. Constructing the supply chain network is the first objective and a critical step for achieving the other objectives of the project. With the constructed network, we can understand the changes of the supply chain networks over time and across different regions, in terms of food production and distribution, down to the detailed zip code level. This allows us to examine the evolving logistics of food distribution. More importantly, it enables us the quantify the consequences of unexpected shocks, such as the shutdown of meat processing plants during COVID-19. We are currently in the process of disclosing the resulting networks and their characteristics. Once this is completed, we will summarize the results in a paper and present them at various outlets, including the annual meeting of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in the summer of 2025.
Publications
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