Source: IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY submitted to NRP
INTEGRATED MODELING OF CLIMATE RESILIENT BIOREFINERIES AND LANDSCAPES (CREBL) FOR A SUSTAINABLE BIOECONOMY
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
ACTIVE
Funding Source
AFRI COMPETITIVE GRANT
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
1029684
Grant No.
2023-68016-40133
Cumulative Award Amt.
$999,495.00
Proposal No.
2022-08950
Multistate No.
(N/A)
Project Start Date
May 15, 2023
Project End Date
May 14, 2026
Grant Year
2023
Program Code
[A1414]- Bioenergy Feedstock Logistics Program
Recipient Organization
IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY
2229 Lincoln Way
AMES,IA 50011
Performing Department
(N/A)
Non Technical Summary
Climate change costs have exceeded $150 billion per year, and they are approaching the total value of U.S. agricultural exports of $172 billion. Farmers, engineers, and policy makers need to develop strategies towards increasing the resilience of our food, fuel, and bioproduct systems. This project will investigate the development of Climate Resilient Biorefineries and Landscapes (CREBL) based on current and 2050 climate, agriculture, economy, and policy projections to 2050.The project objectives include: 1) techno-economic and lifecycle optimization of biorefinery selection and deployment for producing value-added fuels and bioproducts, 2) national-scale policy assessment of the impacts of climate-change mitigation strategies on land use and bioeconomy trends, 3) ecological projections of agricultural landscape nutrient and carbon flows under steady and extreme event climate scenarios, and 4) farmer-focused outreach and education on climate-change resilience and opportunities.Emerging climate change policies could unlock a wide range of biorefinery technologies. These policies will result in a diverse distribution of novel bioproduct portfolios. Our project team is uniquely positioned to evaluate the socio-economic-environmental performance of CREBL and translate findings to next-generation farmers. This project will deliver projections, roadmaps, and mitigation strategies towards a climate-resilient bioeconomy and climate-savvy farming communities. This project addresses the USDA Sustainable Bioeconomy through Biobased Products Program Areas.
Animal Health Component
40%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
20%
Applied
40%
Developmental
40%
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
4026110202034%
1020199107033%
6100430306033%
Knowledge Area
102 - Soil, Plant, Water, Nutrient Relationships; 610 - Domestic Policy Analysis; 402 - Engineering Systems and Equipment;

Subject Of Investigation
6110 - Economy of the United States and sectors thereof; 0430 - Climate; 0199 - Soil and land, general;

Field Of Science
2020 - Engineering; 1070 - Ecology; 3060 - Political science;
Goals / Objectives
The major goals of this project areto develop an integrated agriculture and biorefinery decision-making framework to support Climate Resilient Biorefineries and Landscapes (CREBL) for a Sustainable Bioeconomy and activities that inform, educate, and engage farmers in making sustainable decisions under climate uncertainty. To achieve these goals, this project brings together a team of scientists and engineers with engineering, ecology, policy, and agricultural education backgrounds.The CREBL project integrates biorefinery techno-economic and lifecycle assessment, agriculture ecological modeling, climate policy analysis, and outreach and education. This multidisciplinary team brings together the necessary knowledge and experience to develop the required framework, industry experience, and outreach capability to disseminate the project findings. The institutions partnering in this project include one Midwestern land-grant university, one Southeast historically black land-grant institution, and a private bioenergy company. This partnership supports developing research across various U.S. regions and disseminating the project findings to a diverse community of students, scientists, and farmers.The significance of this objective is that the U.S. Bioeconomy needs a dedicated framework to study how farmers and biorefineries could adapt to the impacts of climate change and the education of a climate-savvy farming community. Existing policy-making frameworks are too broad or too focused in scope to address the question of how climate change would impact agricultural land use and biorefinery technology adoption. CREBL bridges this gap by providing a rich analysis of the agriculture landscape and diversity of biorefinery configurations within various climate change scenarios.This framework will provide a roadmap toward potential long-range improvement in the sustainability of U.S. agriculture and food systems. This roadmap will include technical, economic, environmental, policy, outreach and educational considerations. We will address questions such as how many biorefineries could be deployed under different policy constraints; what are the different biobased products and markets that would become available; how much and how efficiently farmers would use natural and synthetic fertilizer; how much carbon could be sequestered through farm or biorefinery practices; and how likely are farmers to adopt climate-resilient practices? Addressing these questions could lead to meeting CO2 sequestration targets, improving crop productivity resilience, increasing rural bioeconomy income, and a farming community educated on climate change resilient practices.This project addresses the USDA Sustainable Bioeconomy through Biobased Products Program Areas (4b and 4c). We will investigate strategies for deploying scalable agriculture-biorefineries systems that provide biofuels, bioproducts, and ecological services such as nutrient loss reduction and carbon sequestration based on existing and projected climate policies. We will also investigate climate and energy policies that alleviate CREBL technical and economic barriers and improve farmer and industry attitudes towards climate-friendly bioeconomy policies.This project aligns with the USDA Strategic Plan Goal 1: Combat Climate Change to Support America's Working Lands, Natural Resources, and Communities. Its purpose is to create integrated research, education, and extension project that "would enhance the environmental quality and the natural resource base upon which the agricultural economy and rural communities depend" and "sustain the economic viability of farm operations." Additionally, we will grow the extension foundation through the extension contribution of this project.Project objectives include: 1) techno-economic and lifecycle optimization of biorefinery selection and deployment for producing value-added fuels and bioproducts, 2) national-scale policy assessment of the impacts of climate change mitigation strategies on land use and bioeconomy trends, 3) ecological projections of agricultural landscape nutrient and carbon flows under steady and extreme event climate scenarios, and 4) farmer-focused outreach and education on climate-change resilience and opportunities.The outcomes of this project will include a nationwide framework for evaluating biomass utilization and conversion, agriculture and bioeconomy policies, ecological nutrient and carbon responses to extreme climate events, and comprehensive social and farming community education and outreach materials and activities. The nationwide framework leverages the US Billion-Ton Update database to predict biomass availability. It employs the National Energy Modeling Systems for policy analysis. The Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model supports the analysis of soil nutrient and carbon flows, and soil and water quality. The outreach activities will provide research-based information dissemination on climate-resilient biorefinery production and curriculum development using intensive workshop/training, short course, and Bootcamp for farmers, including small-scale limited resource socially disadvantaged as well as STEM workforce.The extension and outreach component will provide a platform for farmers interested in learning, adopting, and practicing climate-resilient agriculture and bioeconomy practices. The multi-phased education and outreach project plan includes the following action plans: (i) conducting an initial survey on biorefinery production at the farm level, knowledge of climate policy, climate change, and natural resource management, and (ii) developing curriculum (e.g., climate-smart biorefinery production), (iii) providing support with training modules, (iv) conducting hands-on experiences, (v) regular follow-up and evaluating results and (vii) repeating the same routine in the second and third year of the project to reinforce opportunities to learn about biorefinery adoption and sustainable resource management.The successful completion of this project will equip scientists, policymakers, and farmers with a framework to develop a climate-resilient bioeconomy. Our extension and outreach program will ensure broad dissemination of the project outcomes to diverse communities. The project goals align with the mission of our land-grant institutions and support the development of the agriculture and bioeconomy of the nation.
Project Methods
The methodology for this project is organized into four tasks:1) techno-economic and lifecycle optimization of biorefinery selection and deployment for producing value-added fuels and bioproducts, 2) national-scale policy assessment of the impacts of climate change mitigation strategies on land use and bioeconomy trends, 3) ecological projections of nutrient and carbon flows (primarily net GHG fluxes) across agricultural landscapes under steady and extreme event climate scenarios, and 4) farmer-focused outreach, extension and education on climate-change resilience and opportunities.Task 1:We will develop a framework for this project that integrates our library of biorefinery process designs with a supply chain decision model built upon the USDA Billion Ton biomass database. We will focus on biorefinery designs that achieve net-negative carbon emissions. Our unique approach combines machine learning-based reduced order models for feedstock-biorefinery combinations with county-level biomass supply curves and regional market demand data.Task 2:Policy, such as the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and the 2nd generation biofuel production tax credit, hasbeen the most important driver for advanced bioenergy products. Previous studies have shown mixed evidence on the effectiveness of various policy instruments in supporting sustainable agriculture and bioeconomy. The RFS and excise tax exemption and credits are effective in boosting corn ethanol, but are not as successful for cellulosic ethanol. Financial incentives are more effective for advanced biofuels, such as investment subsidies to support new entries to the market, and high prices of cellulosic waiver credits. But the effectiveness of the financial incentives diminishes over time. Some studies find that information-based programs can motivate farmers to engage in and maintain sustainable practices, but others find providing the information is not an effective strategy in the U.S.. More research and information are needed to design the policy framework for developing sustainable strategies to reduce GHG emissions in the agriculture sector. This analysis aims to evaluate the impact of climate policies on developing climate-resilient biorefineries and landscapes.Task 3: We will use the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM) to predict the resilience of biofuel crop production and their feedback to the climate system through biogenic GHG emissions. The DLEM is a process-based ecosystem model, which couples major plant physiological, biogeochemical, hydrological cycles, and vegetation dynamics to make daily, spatially explicit estimates of carbon, nitrogen, and water fluxes and pool sizes in terrestrial ecosystems.Task 4:We propose developing easy-to-adopt training and workshop curriculum and information hub for climate-resilient biorefinery production and sustainable development of bioeconomy for farmers in the Southeast and Midwest.his extension and outreach component will provide a platform for farmers interested in learning, adopting, and practicing biorefinery production and developing climate-resilient bioeconomy adoption. We will train, prepare and support farmers' including small-scale, limited resources, and socially disadvantaged, by helping them to make sound decisions for biorefinery production in a changing climate.

Progress 05/15/23 to 05/14/24

Outputs
Target Audience:We have published our research in scientific journals and prominent research reports. Work related to this project is featured inGCB Bioenergy, BioEnergy Research, and the national Roads to Removal Report led by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. These publications are currently targeting the scientific community. We have made and participated in more than nine workshops and conferences targeting the farm extension community. These includes extension specialists and farmers. We have communicated directly with several farmers. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?This project has provided full support for 1 graduate student, and partial support for one post-doctoral research associate, and 1 research scientist. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?1. Training/Workshops/Conferences: - PI-Dari has conducted workshops and training sessions on climate-smart farming practices, cover crops, and sustainable soil health management for small-scale farmers. These events targeted county extension agents, farmers, and other stakeholders. - The project team has presented their research findings at conferences such as the ASA-CSSA-SSSA Annual Conference, American Society of Agronomy (ASA) Southern Branch Conference, and BIOGEOMONE Conference. - PI Lu has presented at the American Geophysical Union annual meeting to present their research and share their new datasets on cropping diversity changes in the US. 2. Invited Panels and Speaking Engagements: - PI-Dari has been invited to speak at events such as the 1890 Association of Research Director (ARD) Conference, Soil Health and Regenerative Farming at the 8th Microbiome Movement Agbiotech, and Soil Health Field Day organized by Global Growers Network. 3. Personal Communication: - PI-Dari has reached out to individual farmers (8-10) through phone conversations and personal communication to educate and train them about cover crops and bioenergy-related topics. 4. Meetings and Gatherings: - The project team has attended various meetings and gatherings to network and share information about the project, including the North Carolina Association of Cooperative Extension Specialist (NCACES) Fall Meeting, Food Bank - Community Learning Listening Session, North Carolina Southern SARE Annual Board Meeting, Farm Campus Advisory Meeting, and Diversity-Equity-Inclusion-Accessibility Biennial Fall Meeting. 5. Research and Demonstration Projects: - Two ongoing research and demonstration projects on cover crops and soil health are being conducted at NCA&T University Research Farm and Small Farm Unit, Center for Environmental and Farming System (CEFS), North Carolina. These projects aim to showcase the long-term soil health benefits of cover crop type, seeding rate, and termination methods to the farming community. These diverse dissemination activities ensure that the project's results reach a wide range of stakeholders, including extension agents, farmers, researchers, and policymakers. By engaging with these communities through workshops, conferences, personal communication, and demonstration projects, the project team is effectively sharing knowledge and promoting the adoption of climate-resilient agriculture and bioeconomy practices. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?We are expanding the facility location framework to include a broader range of biorefineries types, biofuels, and bioproducts. We plan to beging integrating the various research efforts and analyses.We will synthesize the experimental data by incorporating data of extreme weather events, soil properties, and other management practices to quantify the climate-resilience of bioenergy crop productivity and the influencing factors regulating their variations over the space and time. Such information will be learned through machine learning approaches and be used to inform a process-based land ecosystem model in terms of yield response to climate extreme (extremely dry, wet, hot, and cold conditions). Then the well-constrained model will be used to test a few bioenergy production scenarios (e.g., replacing the currently low productivity croplands with perennial bioenergy crops, planting perennial bioenergy crops in the CRP lands, etc.). Their yield variations and environmental outcomes will be investigated through modeling approach. We plan on being fully staffed for the academic year 2024-2025. This will allow us to accelerate the research effort and begin to communicate with the broader agricultural communities.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? The Climate Resilient Biorefineries and Landscapes (CREBL) project aims to develop an integrated agriculture and biorefinery decision-making framework to support a sustainable bioeconomy under climate uncertainty. The project also focuses on informing, educating, and engaging farmers in making sustainable decisions in the face of climate change. During this reporting period, significant progress has been made towards achieving the project's objectives: 1. Data Development: * Developed annual time-series crop area and type maps across the US at 1km by 1km resolution from 1850 to 2021. This dataset includes the distribution of nine major crop types and one "others" category. * Reconstructed annual spatial maps of the US Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) grassland distribution from 1986 to 2020 at 1km by 1km resolution, with uncertainty assessment. * These databases will serve as a baseline for modeling and quantifying the climate resilience of bioenergy crop production compared to row crops and CRP grasslands. 2. Experiment Data Synthesis and Meta-Analysis: * Compiled a detailed dataset of bioenergy crop yield from multiple sites during 1980 to 2018, including information on location, weather conditions, plantation age, harvested type and yield, and management practices. * Continuously updating the dataset to extend coverage to the latest years. * The follow-up analysis will quantify variations in bioenergy crop yield (switchgrass, miscanthus, and corn) in response to extreme weather events and the impacts of management, rotation, age, and other factors. 3. Publications: We have published two articles in peer-reviewed journals: 1. Mas Martin, I., Aui, A., Dubey, P., Schulte, L.A., & Mba Wright, M. (2024). Optimal production and dispatch of renewable natural gas, electricity, and fertilizer in municipal?scale anaerobic digestion supply chains. BioEnergy Research. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12155-024-10767-y This study develops a dynamic mixed-integer linear programming model to optimize the collection, allocation, conversion, and dispatch of energy resources in municipal-scale anaerobic digestion (AD) supply chains. The model optimizes AD facility locations producing renewable natural gas (RNG) and power from combined agricultural, industrial, and municipal waste streams. It also optimizes the hourly dispatch of RNG and electricity based on urban residential, industrial, and commercial energy demand. The results show that AD systems could generate RNG, electricity, and fertilizer at competitive costs, with RNG production being a viable alternative to renewable electricity. The study provides decision-makers with a framework for evaluating tradeoffs between RNG and electricity production in sustainable municipal-scale energy planning. 2. Olafasakin, O., Audia, E.M., Mba-Wright, M., Tyndall, J.C., & Schulte, L.A. (2024). Techno-economic and life cycle analysis of renewable natural gas derived from anaerobic digestion of grassy biomass: A US Corn Belt watershed case study. GCB Bioenergy, 16, e13164. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.13164 This study assesses the techno-economic feasibility and life cycle outcomes of a "grass-to-gas" pathway that includes harvesting grassy biomass for RNG production through AD. The analysis builds upon previous research quantifying ecosystem service and landowner financial outcomes of simulated grassland restoration in the Grand River Basin of Iowa and Missouri, United States. The amount of RNG produced through AD of grassy biomass and its net present value depend on the combination of land use, productivity, and environmental credit scenarios. Positive net present values are achieved with environmental credits for replacing synthetic agricultural inputs with digestate and producing clean fuel. RNG from grassy biomass has lower greenhouse gas emissions than fossil natural gas and meets the US Environmental Protection Agency's requirement for cellulosic biofuel. The study demonstrates opportunities and limitations to using grassy biomass from restored grasslands for sustainable RNG production. These publications contribute to the project's goals by providing frameworks for evaluating the economic and environmental feasibility of RNG production from anaerobic digestion of agricultural, industrial, municipal, and grassy biomass feedstocks. The findings inform the development of a decision-making framework for climate-resilient biorefineries and landscapes, and the potential for RNG production to support a sustainable bioeconomy. These accomplishments directly contribute to the project's goals of developing a framework for evaluating biomass utilization and conversion, agriculture and bioeconomy policies, and ecological nutrient and carbon responses to extreme climate events. The datasets and analyses will help scientists, policymakers, and farmers make informed decisions about adopting climate-resilient practices in agriculture and the bioeconomy. The immediate beneficiaries of this work include the scientific community, who can utilize the datasets and analyses for further research; policymakers, who can use the findings to develop effective policies for a sustainable bioeconomy; and farmers, who will gain knowledge and tools to make climate-resilient decisions in their agricultural practices. The key outcomes realized during this reporting period include the development of comprehensive datasets on crop distribution and CRP grasslands, which will serve as a foundation for assessing the climate resilience of bioenergy crops. The meta-analysis of bioenergy crop yield data will provide valuable insights into the factors influencing crop performance under various weather conditions and management practices. Additionally, the publication of two articles demonstrates the project's contribution to advancing knowledge in the field.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2024 Citation: Ye, S. and C. Lu. The spatiotemporal pattern and dynamics of grassland established in the US Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). (Under Review)
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2024 Citation: Shuchao Ye, Peiyu Cao, Chaoqun Lu*. Annual time-series 1-km maps of crop area and types in the conterminous US (CropAT-US): cropping diversity changes during 18502021. Earth System Science Data, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-195. (Under Review)
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2024 Citation: Olafasakin, Olumide, Ellen M. Audia, Mark Mba?Wright, John C. Tyndall, and Lisa A. Schulte. "Techno?economic and life cycle analysis of renewable natural gas derived from anaerobic digestion of grassy biomass: A US Corn Belt watershed case study." GCB Bioenergy 16, no. 6 (2024): e13164.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2024 Citation: Martin, Irene Mas, Alvina Aui, Pallavi Dubey, Lisa A. Schulte, and Mark Mba Wright. "Optimal Production and Dispatch of Renewable Natural Gas, Electricity, and Fertilizer in Municipal-Scale Anaerobic Digestion Supply Chains." BioEnergy Research (2024): 1-13
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2023 Citation: B Dari (2023). Climate-smart Farming Practices. Field and Professional Training (Annual Train-the-Trainer Training): County Extension Agents of North Carolina Cooperative Extension; Oct 17, 2023 (Online).
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2023 Citation: B Dari (2023). Cover Crops as Climate-smart Farming Practices (Field Workshop). Small Farm Unit (SFU) and Center for Environmental Farming Systems (CEFS) Facilitated a Farm Tour between North Carolina A&T State University (NCA&T) and North Carolina State University (NCSU) as part of North Carolina Agriculture Strategic Development; Dec 1, 2023 (in-person).
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2023 Citation: B Dari, D Sihi, and M Barmon (2023). Sustainable Soil Health Management for Small-scale Farmers in Agroforestry (Alley) Cover Cropping System. ASA-CSSA-SSSA Annual Conference, St. Louis, MO.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2024 Citation: Dari B, D Sihi and Team: Climate-Smart Alley Cropping (Agroforestry) and Soil Carbon Cycle Proxies, American Society of Agronomy (ASA) Southern Branch Conference, Feb 2024.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2024 Citation: o Dari B, D Sihi and Team: Soil Carbon Dynamics and Microbial Proxies Under Climate-Smart Farming Practices, BIOGEOMONE Conference, Porte Rico, Jan, 2024.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2024 Citation: o Dari B, D Sihi and Team: Impact of Tillage on Soil Carbon Cycle Proxies: A Comprehensive Meta-Analysis, American Society of Agronomy (ASA) Southern Branch Conference, Feb 2024.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2023 Citation: Shuchao Ye, Peiyu Cao, Chaoqun Lu. Cropping diversity changes in the conterminous US during 1850-2021: 1-km Crop Area and Type maps (CropAT-US). AGU 2023, San Francisco, Dec 19, 2023.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2023 Citation: The historical reconstruction of crop density maps and crop type maps in the continental USA from 1850 to 2021. Environmental Science Graduate Research Symposium, Iowa State University, Ames, Apr 17, 2023.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2024 Citation: Shuchao Ye, Chaoqun Lu. The spatiotemporal change of Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) grassland. Environmental Science Graduate Research Symposium, Iowa State University, Ames, Apr 12, 2024.