Source: NAVAJO TECHNICAL COLLEGE submitted to NRP
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON PINYON CONE CROPS AND PINYON JAYS ON THE NAVAJO NATION
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
ACTIVE
Funding Source
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
1029585
Grant No.
2023-38424-38748
Cumulative Award Amt.
$498,272.00
Proposal No.
2022-07321
Multistate No.
(N/A)
Project Start Date
Jan 1, 2023
Project End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Grant Year
2023
Program Code
[ZY]- Tribal Colleges Research Grants Program
Recipient Organization
NAVAJO TECHNICAL COLLEGE
PO BOX 849
CROWNPOINT,NM 87313
Performing Department
(N/A)
Non Technical Summary
Pinyon pine (Pinus edulis) is a critical component of the pinyon-juniper woodland ecosystem, the third largest vegetation type in the US. The decline of P. edulis over the past two decades due to drought and associated wildfire is having significant impacts on Native American communities who utilize P. edulis as a food, timber, cultural, and medicinal resource, and also on the pinyon jay (Gymnorhinus cyanocephalus), a highly social member of the crow family that depends on pinyon seeds for food. Pinyon jay populations have declined precipitously over the past two decades, resulting in its consideration for addition to the US Endangered Species List. We propose to assess pinyon cone production and seed viability and pinyon jay abundance on the Navajo Nation. Our project has five objectives: 1) develop Navajo expertise in climate change impacts on wildlife, 2) to assess cone production and seed viability across the Navajo Nation and to relate variation in cone production to other plant traits including short-term and long term-growth, beneficial fungal associations and degree of herbivore and pathogen damage; 3) To scale up local measurements to the region and link them to climate data including monsoon rain activity over the last five years using weather station data, modelled climate data, and NEXRAD precipitation estimation; 4) to monitor cones and pinyon jay populations across the Navajo Nation using the methods adopted by the Audubon Southwest Audubon and Great Basin Bird Observatory and 5) increase tribal member engagement in environmental data collection. Students at NTU will benefit from these activities by learning a range of new techniques (tree ring analysis, cone and pinyon jay assessments, use of NEXRAD radar) while also engaging in a broader citizen science program with the Southwest Audubon where they have the opportunity to engage their local communities.
Animal Health Component
50%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
30%
Applied
50%
Developmental
20%
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
12307201070100%
Knowledge Area
123 - Management and Sustainability of Forest Resources;

Subject Of Investigation
0720 - Pinyon-juniper;

Field Of Science
1070 - Ecology;
Goals / Objectives
Our project has five broad goals: 1) develop Navajo expertise in climate change impacts on wildlife, 2) to assess cone production across the Navajo Nation and to relate variation in cone production to other plant traits including growth form, growth rate, beneficial fungal associations and degree of herbivore damage; 3) To scale up local measurements to the region and link them to climate data including monsoon rain activity using weather station data, modelled climate data, and NEXRAD precipitation estimation; 4) to monitor cones and pinyon jay populations on the Navajo Nation using the methods adopted by the Audubon Southwest and Great Basin Bird Observatory and 5) increase tribal member engagement in environmental data collection and community science.
Project Methods
Hypotheses and field sampling design:For the time series analysis (Science Objective 1) we have data starting 1992 across 12 sites surrounding Flagstaff, AZ. Originally each site monitored a minimum of 60 tree. We have extensive trait data for these trees including size, architecture, growth rate, and cone production. We will extend data collection at these sites by updating the cone time series by counting cone scars up to the present on 10 trees per site. For the same ten trees we will add assessment of mycorrhizal colonization by Geopora. Hypothesis 1: Drought conditions must say below moderate threshold for the entire time course of development of cones to obtain a moderate or large cone crop. Hypothesis 2: Trees must be above a size threshold to produce a moderate cone crop. Hypothesis 3: Shorter, wider trees with more Geopora will produce fewer cones in very wet periods and more cones in moderate drought conditions.For the landscape analysis (Science Objectives 2 and 3) we will sample 50 sites across the Navajo Nation. At each site we will assess size, architecture, growth, cones, and mycorrhizal colonization. Validation of the landscape analysis predictions will be done by checking against the independent data set of community science data. Hypothesis 4: Sites with lower levels of drought stress due to higher precipitation or soils with better water holding capacity will have more consistent cone production.For the pinyon jay-cone model (Science Objective 4) we will use the community science data. Hypothesis 5: Greater average cone crops will correspond with larger pinyon jay populations. Hypothesis 6: Consistency of cone crops will be more important in maintaining pinyon jay populations than average of peak production.Method specifications:Pinyon traits: Tree architecture (basal trunk diameter, two canopy width measures, and tree height), growth (annual stem elongation of 10 shoots) have already been measured for the long-term study trees. We assess these traits on three trees at each of the 50 Navajo Nation landscape study sites.Cone crop assessment: We will use three methods for cone crop assessment. 1) Whenever we can be a site during cone maturation, we will conduct cone counts with tally counters. Each tree is counted by two individual researchers and the numbers are averaged to estimate cone. This method has been used for the long-term data collection (ref). 2) For the long-term time series analysis and for the Navajo Nation 50-site survey we will also apply the cone scar method. This method requires collecting a sample of branches from each study tree. The branches are returned to the laboratory where hey are examined under a dissecting scope to count the scars left when a cone falls off the tree. This method has been shown to yield predictive estimates of cone production using data from our long-term study site (Redmond et al 2016). 3) Community science data collection will follow the GBBO community science methods (GBBO: Pinyon Pine Cone Availability Assessment Protocol 2020) which involves the designation of an area, cone estimation for individual trees, and then estimating the average per tree cone crop. We will ensure that calibration among methods is achieved by doing all three measurement types for a minimum of 20 of the landscape survey sites.Mycorrhizal fungi: We propose to collect root samples from the three trees at each of the 50 sites selected for sampling on the Navajo Nation and from trees at the 12 sites with long-term cone data . We will collect a small root sample from the north side of each tree as in Gehring et al. (2020). Samples will be stored on ice until their return to NTU and NAU laboratories. NTU students will learn how to distinguish roots colonized by ectomycorrhizal fungi from those that are not, and also to distinguish Geopora ectomycorrhizas from other taxa by their size, color, mantle texture and the characteristics of their emanating hyphae. At least 100 root tips will be scored per tree using a dissecting microscope. Data on ectomycorrhizal abundance (measured as % colonization) and Geopora abundance (measured as % Geopora of living mycorrhizas) will then be related to other tree traits, including cone production as described in Figure X. A subset of ectomycorrhizas from each site will be analyzed using DNA sequencing with the Sanger method, as described in Gehring et al. (2020) to verify identification.Pinyon jay monitoring: Pinyon jay monitoring allows registered users to record presence or absence of pinyon jays (https://pinyon-jay-community-science-gbbo.hub.arcgis.com/pages/surveys ). "Absence" requires at least 10 minutes spent stationary and observing in one location. Location, date, time, and the number of birds observed are also recorded. There are several options also for describing the activities of the observed birds.Community Science: We will use the community science framework set up by Southwest Audubon and the Great Basin Bird Observatory. These entities already host a website with the methods and an online data entry portal. We will have NTU students lead outreach efforts to schools and chapter houses to engage and train community participants. We will also tie in the the outreach activities run by NNDGF and assist them in recruiting additional community science participants. We will work with all partners to facilitate participation by those limited by devices or data connections.

Progress 01/01/24 to 12/31/24

Outputs
Target Audience:Data collected through the Great Basin Bird Observatory application is stored by GBBO and made available to the research community. Students on the project are providing informal outreach to the Navajo Nation community on a ad hoc basis. We plan to expand this effort into a formal program of outreach talks presented at Navajo Chapters. We will use the pinyon jay observation data to create a map of pinyon jay occurance on the Navajo Nation and use it as the basis of an informational brochure on the pinyon jay, the GBBO survey project and how the general public can join the effort. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Students and faculty on the project attended a workshop on Pinyon Jay identification and how to use the Great Basin Bird Observatory smartphone application to record Pinyon Jay observations. These data are then included in the GBBO regional survey system where they can be analyzed statistacally and geographically. Students at NTU and NAU are working with GBBO staff to extract and map Pinyon Jay observations collected by this project and are using this data to construct a GIS project. A graduate student at NAU is working on quality control of precipitation and temperature data from a network of weather stations operated by NAU, learning about databases, r statistics and statistical methods and methods of data quality control. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Our dissemination activities included working with Navajo Nation Department of Fish and Wildlife Climate Program staff to draft a book chapter on using genetic technology in conservation and assisting NNDFW staff with a pinyon garden planting project. Additionally, Steve Chischilly gave a talk at NAU to Research and Mentoring for Postbaccalaureates program scholars on his career pathway and current research including this project on September 25th 2024. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?During our next reporting period we intend to continue cone scar analysis andpinyon jay observations. We will create and distribute a pinyon jay observations map and brochure promoting the GBBO application for distribution on the Navajo Nation and surounding areas. We will complete a paper on the weather data QA/QC project and we will continue development of the cone production model and extend it into a spatial model for pinon jay resource availability. We will publish the NextRad seasonal precipitation dataset to an online reporitory with DOI. Finally, we will begin writing a paper on the completed model for publication.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? During this reporting period we conducted a pinyon jay observation collection workshop at Navajo Technical University (NTU) using the Great Basin Bird Observatory (GBBO) smartphone tool. Project associates collected ~500 pinyon jay observations during this period. Students from Northern Arizona University conducted a workshop at NTU on how to analyze pinyon branches for cone scar data. The students from both universities continued to analyze materials adding to the cone scar dataset. Name Survey Points Location Ronald Benally 10 White Cone, Low Mountain, Ganado, and Wheatfields Malynndra Tome 120 Ganado, Ganado Lake, Fluted Rock, Nazlini Nicole Pino 116 NAPI, Counselors Area Cassandra Tabaha 100 Crownpoint Felisha Jimmie 70 Borrego Pass, Mariano Lake Jeremy Begay 100 Window Rock, Summit, Tsaile, Wheatfields Steven Chischilly 60 Tsaile, Canyon de Chelly, Ganado, Black Mesa, Kayenta Students at NTU and NAU are working with GBBO to create a GIS of all Pinyon Jay observations and their locations. They currently have extracted geospatial data for all NTU/NAU pinyon jay observations as both excel tables and ESRI shapefiles. A graduate student at NAU conducted a QA/QC project on weather data from NAU's Southwest Experimental Garden Array. This analysis will be used to ground truth rain gauge corrected NextRad precipitation data from NCEP/EMC 4KM Gridded Data (GRIB) Stage IV Data and PRISM temperature data for use in our pinon seed production model. We converted approximately 87000 hourly continental 4km resolution NCEP/EMC 4KM Gridded Data (GRIB) Stage IV precipitation rasters into 10-years of Summer and Winter season precipitation rasters for use in our seed production model. We continue to collect and process new Stage IV data to add to our dataset as it becomes available.

Publications


    Progress 01/01/23 to 12/31/23

    Outputs
    Target Audience:During the start-up phase of this project we had little in the way of outreach activities. Data collected through the Great Basin Bird Observatory application is stored by GBBO and made available to the research community. Students on the project are providing informal outreach to the Navajo Nation community on a ad hoc basis. We plan to expand thhis effor into a formal program of outreach talks presented at Navajo Chapters. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Students and faculty on the project attended a workshop on Pinyon Jay identification and how to use the Great Basin Bird Observatory smartphone application to record Pinyon Jay observations. These data are tehn included in the GBBO regional survey system where they can be analyzed statistacally and geographically. In addition students at NTU and NAU learned about weather stations and quality control of weather station data during a workshop conducted by Paul Heinirch. A graduate student at NAU began a project to do quality control on precipitation and temperature data from a network of weather stations operated by NAU, learning about databases, r statistics and statistical methods and methods of data quality control. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Project PIs (Steve Chischilly, Dr. Amy Whipple and Dr. Catherine Gehring) attended a one-day meeting with multiple Navajo Nation agencies to exchange information and build partnerships around environmental issues of interest to NAU, Ntu and the Navajo Nation. We spoke with representatives of NN Environmental Protection Agency, Fish and Wildlife, Agriculture, Forestry, Range Management and Cultural Heritage Departments. Topics discussed included NTU (with NAU support) has some current USDA awardsfocusing on pinyon and climate changetopics include seed collection and restoration plantings of pinyon and juniper seedlings Pine nut harvest declines and effect on pinyon jay populations mapping and better understanding pinyon juniper drought mortality (add soil microbes) Rangelands (grass and biocrust) restoration focused on: improving soil stability, soil health & environmental health reducing exotic plant cover/fire cycle climate resilience Forb and Riparian restoration work includes work with cottonwood, willow, forbs, and associated community members Wildlife (pinyon jay, horned lizards, and more) Pinyon jay may be of particular concern as they were recently proposed for listing under the endangered species act. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?During the next reporting period we plan to continue pinyon jay observation trainings and the collection of pinyon jay observations. We will begin collection of pinyon branch materials in order to analyze them for previous year's cone scars in order to create a database of cone production over the past four to five years which gives us an estimate of previous year's production. We will continue to collect and quality control NextRad precipitation data and use these data to construct Winter and Summer season precipitation rasters. Pinyon trees develop cones over two years and sufficient precipitation in each of the preceding two years is necessary for a successful seed crop. Using these data along with the cone scar data we will begin development of a raster-based pinyon seed production model. We will also develop a brochure on how to successfully plant pinyon seedlings for wide distribution.

    Impacts
    What was accomplished under these goals? During the December 2022 to December 2023 reporting period we organized and conducted pinyon jay observation training in Flagstaff which was conducted by the Great Basin Bird Observatory (GBBO) staff. Twenty-three Faculty, Graduates and Undergraduate students from NAU and NTU attended the training where they learned to identify pinyon jays and record their observations using the GBBO smartphone application. After the training, students and staff began collecting presence data on pinyon jays throughout the region whenever they observed the birds. During this year approximately several hundred observations were recorded by project associates. People Attending the Pinyon Jay Survey Training Name Affiliation Chase Bebo NTU Ferranado Clyde NTU Ronald Benally NTU Kirby Morris NTU Mia Morris NTU Jared Pinto NTU Davina Spencer NTU N'Khoy Stoutt NTU Cassandra Tabah NTU Steve Chischilly NTU Paul Heinrich NAU Amy Whipple NAU Hannah Kantoris NAU Donald Busse NAU Maria Terrasa Hernandez NAU Jared Begay NAU RaMP Melissa Marquez-Vargas NAU RaMP Seth Charley NAU RaMP Brandee Keyonnie NAU RaMP Amber Archie NAU RaMP Shawna Woody NAU RaMP Catrina Alberts NAU RaMP Kayla Yazzie NAU RaMP We also began the process of collecting rain gauge corrected NextRad precipitation data from NCEP/EMC 4KM Gridded Data (GRIB) Stage IV Data repositories, converting the data to geotiff rasters and doing visual QA/QC of these data for completeness. Due to terrain masking the Four Corners (our main area of interest) is obscured before about 2015. However, that still gives us good precipitation data for the last 10 years which is similar to the amount of time you can still see cone scars. Initially, we downloaded approximately 20 years worth of 24-hour, 6-hour, and hourly 4km resolution precipitation rasters covering the Continental United States, Puerto Rico, Hawaii, and Alaska. The Hawaii, Purerto Rico and Alaska and all 6- and 24-hour rasters were discarded. Only the hourly continental rasters were retained. Next the remaining rasters were converted from GRIB format to geoTIFF using the GDAL raster manipulation toolset in Python. Then the hourly geoTiffs were aggregated into summer and winter season total precipitation rasters using GDAL. For this analysis we defined summer at 6/1 to 9/30 which covers most monsoonal precipitation in the southwest US. We defined winter precipitation as all precipitation occurring between 10/1 of one year through 5/31 of the following year.

    Publications