Progress 04/15/22 to 04/14/23
Outputs Target Audience:This is the entirety of the invasive species, agricultural biosecurity, and IPM communities, in general. In particular, decision makers and practitioners involved in the CAPS (Cooperative Agricultural Pest Survey) programs, state survey programs for invasive pests, and the general public who often serve as first responders and citizen scientists in assisting with data collection. Changes/Problems:- One of the key personnel for this project, Chris Hedstrom, left the OIPMC in Spring 2023. Chris was responsible for outreach activities that target stakeholders in the Pacific Northwest, including web developments, newsletter materials, course materials, industry articles, and webinars. These duties will be delegated to one of the two IPM Educators that were recently hired at the OIPMC. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?- In addition to the modeling course described under objective (4) under accomplishments: - Assist in training 1 undergraduate student intern. Summer 2023. Training in phenological data analysis and model validation. Working with Japanese Beetle, an invasive pest of turf and ornamentals. - Taught IPM modeling concepts at several Pesticide Safety Education Program events. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Via publications, websites, on-line models, trainings, oral and poster presentations, collaborations with several groups including the biosecurity community, extension and outreach events, popular press articles, email newsletters, and other activities described above. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?We are making excellent progress towards achieving all objectives for this project, and plan to continue along the original timeline described in the proposal.
Impacts What was accomplished under these goals?
Objective (1) - Developed a daily time-step algorithm that estimates plant disease infection risk using near real-time daily temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation data, available in the PRISM database. This method was developed for a traditional "heat units during leaf wetness periods" type of infection risk model, that has been implemented for the DDRP model for boxwood blight. It can be readily adapted for brown rot (Monilinia spp.) for this NIFA project. - Developed initial methodologies to download and work with NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) soil moisture data, which will be instrumental in modeling oinvasive plants. SMAP data will be incorporated into DDRP for the cheatgrass model for this project. - Obtained agreement from the PRISM group to acquire daily high resolution (30 second = 800 meter) PRISM data, both past years (back to 2000) and for real-time acquisition, to use for DDRP models for this project. The data are being used for a high-resolution version of the DDRP model for boxwood blight, which serves as a prototype for developing a similar model for Monilinia (brown rot) species. Objective (2) - In the first year of this project, we refined and operationalized the DDRP model for emerald ash borer (EAB), Agrilis planipennis, including parameter optimization and validation with ground observations contributed by several partners. The manuscript describing this model evaluation and improvement (Barker et al. 2023) was accepted for publication by the journal "Frontiers in Insect Science", and is now in press. The code for the EAB model and DDRP platform is deposited at GitHub (https://github.com/bbarker505/ddrp_v2.git) and Zenodo (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7493142). - On March 31, 2023, the USA-NPN operationalized the new EAB model forecasts of adult emergence and egg hatch through the Pheno Forecast infrastructure, including maps available via OGC-compliant web services, the USA-NPN visualization tool and forecast landing pages. The forecast package includes complete metadata, and email notifications (currently to 362 subscribers) is available at http://usanpn.org/data/forecasts/EAB. The email notifications provide advanced warnings (3, 2, and 1-week) of when these events are predicted to occur in the area. Users can interact with forecasts using the Visualization Tool (https://data/usanpn.org/vis-tool). - USPest.org also hosts EAB DDRP forecasts for CONUS (https://uspest.org/CAPS) and for Oregon with an interactive version of the model (https://uspest.org/CAPS/EAB_OR/home.html). Oregon has been experiencing a new EAB outbreak since June 2022. - We operationalized a site-based version of this new EAB phenology model, with access to over 32,000 weather stations, at USPest.org (https://uspest.org/dd/model_app?spp=eab2). - We developed and operationalized a new phenology model for spotted lanternfly at USPest.org (https://uspest.org/dd/model_app?spp=slf), as a first step toward developing a new DDRP model for this species. Model documentation is at: https://uspest.org/wea/spotted_lanternfly_model.pdf. The climate suitability analysis is underway. - We continue to gather references and data sources to construct and validate the remaining models for this project. Objective (3) - Engaged over 40 managers, foresters, scientists, and volunteers in reviewing and providing feedback on USA NPN's forecast prototypes for EAB in Fall 2022. Of these, 65% indicated that they view forecasts during the winter to help plan future management activities, while 87% indicated that they view forecasts during the active season for real-time decision support. This feedback led us to optimize a forecast display in which phenological events are shown a full year in advance, but with sufficient temporal detail to support managers using the forecast during the active season. - Engaged volunteer scientists in collecting EAB observations through the USA-NPN's Pest Patrol Campaign and EDDMaps over entire project year. These data will be used to validate EAB forecasts in future project years. - Advertised the new forecasts for EAB via newsletter, social media, and trade journals: - Published article in City Trees, the Magazine of the Society of Municipal Arborists (Crimmins et al. 2023) - Contacted 362 subscribers of EAB forecasts to announce the release of the new forecasts and learning module on April 12, 2023 (https://conta.cc/3MVyh15) - Reported on the new forecasts in the Feb-Mar issue of USA-NPN's Connection newsletter (2,753 subscribers) on April 3, 2023 (https://conta.cc/3KO37st) - Reported on the new forecasts in the Spring issue of USA-NPN's Leaflet newsletter (929 subscribers) on May 1, 2023 (https://conta.cc/3IWS7b1) - Reported on the new forecasts in the Apr-May issue of the Connection newsletter on May 31, 2023 (https://conta.cc/43qt3kT) - Reported on the new EAB and SLF weather station-based models in the Oregon IPM News email newsletter, on Feb 1, 2023 and May 24, 2023 (https://agsci.oregonstate.edu/oipmc/outreach-and-events) - Met with APHIS PPQ Science & Technology SAFARIS modeling group in North Carolina in November 2022. Presented on the DDRP platform and EAB model, discussed opportunities for collaboration, and compared technological developments. - Developed learning module on EAB life history, collecting phenology observations and using the forecast (https://learning.usanpn.org; 57 have taken the course so far) Objective (4) - Instructed "Ecological Systems Modeling" 3-credit course, HORT 499/599X in Winter 2023. Key deliverable: training of students in developing and applying models, with a focus on applications for agricultural systems and biosecurity threats.
Publications
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Awaiting Publication
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Barker, B. S., L. Coop, J. Duan, and T. Petrice. 2023. An integrative phenology and climatic suitability model for emerald ash borer. Frontiers in Insect Science, Section Invasive Insect Species. Special issue: Forest Insect Invasions Risk Mapping Approaches and Applications. Accepted for Publication July 31, 2023 doi: 10.3389/finsc.2023.1239173
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2022
Citation:
Barker, B. S., L. Coop, and C. Hong. 2022. Potential distribution of invasive boxwood blight pathogen (Calonectria pseudonaviculata) as predicted by process-based and correlative models. Biology. 11(6), 849. 32 pp. Special issue: Biological invasions: From Prevention and Management to Ecosystem Restoration. https://doi.org/10.3390/biology11060849
- Type:
Book Chapters
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2022
Citation:
Bowers, J. H., Malayer, J. R., Mart�nez-L�pez B., LaForest, J., Bargeron, C., Neeley, A. D., Coop, L., Barker, B. S., Mastin, A. J.; Parnell, S., Cosse, A. A., McCluskey, B.J., Isard, S. C., and Russo, J. M. 2022. Surveillance for Early Detection of High-Consequence Pests and Pathogens. in: Tactical Sciences for Biosecurity of Animal and Plant Systems. K. F. Cardwell and K. L. Bailey, eds. IGI Global, Hershey, Pennsylvania, USA. 78pp.
- Type:
Websites
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
USA National Phenology Network. 2023. Emerald Ash Borer Pheno Forecast, USA National Phenology Network. Available at https://usanpn.org/data/forecasts/EAB accessed 07-26-2023.
- Type:
Websites
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
USA National Phenology Network. 2023. Emerald Ash Borer Phenology Learning Module, USA National Phenology Network. Available at: http://learning.usanpn.org/ accessed 07-26-2023
- Type:
Websites
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Coop, L., and B. S. Barker. 2023. Version 2 of a degree-day/phenological model for emerald ash borer, online May 10, 2023. Available at: https://uspest.org/dd/model_app?spp=eab2
- Type:
Websites
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2022
Citation:
Coop, L. and Barker, B.S. 2022. Emerald ash borer spatial model for Oregon online mapping interface. Available at: https://uspest.org/CAPS/EAB_OR/home.html
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Coop, L., and B. S. Barker. 2023. Emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis) phenology/degree-day and climate suitability model analysis. Feb 2023. Spreadsheet analysis available at: https://uspest.org/wea/emerald_ash_borer_model_V2.pdf.
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Coop, L., and B. S. Barker. 2023. Spotted lanternfly (Lycorma delicatula) phenology/degree-day model analysis. June 2023. Spreadsheet analysis available at: https://uspest.org/wea/spotted_lanternfly_model.pdf.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2022
Citation:
Barker, B. S., and L. Coop. 2022. DDRP: phenology and climate suitability modeling to predict when and where invasive and IPM pests can arise. Oral presentation at the Oregon State Agency IPM Coordinating Committee Semiannual Meeting, Feb. 2, 2022. Online event. 13 attendees.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2022
Citation:
Barker, B.S, Coop, L., and Crimmins, T. 2022. DDRP: a modeling tool to guide decision making for pest surveillance and management. Poster presentationat the 10th International IPM Symposium. Mar 2, 2022. Denver, CO. Available at: https://ipmsymposium.org/2021/posters.html. 300 attendees.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2022
Citation:
Coop, L, S. Dorman, and J. Green. 2022. Decision support tools and data visualization. Oral presentation at the fourth annual Oregon IPM summit, Mar. 14, 2022 Corvallis, OR. ca. 25 attendees.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2022
Citation:
Rivedal, H., Barker, B. S., and I. Sandlin. 2022. Barriers for exports and predictive tools for invasive pests. Oral presentation at the 4th annual Oregon IPM Summit, Mar. 14, 2022. Corvallis, OR. ca. 8 attendees.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2022
Citation:
Barker, B. S., Coop, L., and T. Crimmins. 2022. DDRP: a modeling tool to forecast insect phenology and risk of establishment. Oral presentation at the Ecological Forecasting Initiative conference, May 23, 2022. Online event. Available at: https://uspest.org/ipm/Barker_EFI_talk.mp4.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2022
Citation:
Barker, B. S. 2022. Spatial modeling in R to help detect emerald ash borer, a new invader in the Pacific Northwest. Lightning talk at the 6th annual Cascadia R Conference, Sep. 17, 2022. Online event. ca. 75 attendees.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2022
Citation:
Barker, B. S., and L. Coop. 2022. DDRP: real-time mapping of pest phenology and climate suitability. Oral presentation for the USDA APHIS PPQ Plant Pest Risk Analysis group, Nov. 18, 2022. Raleigh, NC. 10 attendees. Invited.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Barker, B. S., Coop, L., Rosemartin, A., and Crimmins, T. 2023. Updates and implementation of a spatialized phenology model for emerald ash borer. Oral presentation at the annual Pacific Northwest Insect Management Conference, Jan. 9, 2023. Portland, OR. ca. 40 attendees.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Barker, B. S. 2023. An introduction to using R for horticultural data analysis. Webinar for the American Society for Horticultural Science, Jan. 30, 2023. Online. 149 attendees. Invited.
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Crimmins, T.M., E. E. Posthumus, A. Rosemartin, B. S. Barker and L. Coop. 2023. Enhanced forecasts of emerald ash borer activity. City Trees, July/Aug 2023 pp 12-13. Available at: https://read.dmtmag.com/i/1502619-july-august-2023/11?
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Hedstrom, C., et al. 2023. What to do about emerald ash borer: Recommendations for tree protection in EAB-infested areas.OSU Extension Article https://extension.oregonstate.edu/forests/cutting-selling/what-do-about-emerald-ash-borer-recommendations-tree-protection-eab
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2022
Citation:
Coop, L., F. Grevstad, B. S. Barker. 2022. User Guide for uspest.org/dd/dodmaps (a version of DDRP). Created for U.S. Dept. Of Defense and USDA APHIS PPQ CPHST & CAPS. 14 pp. Online at:
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2022
Citation:
Barker, B. S., and Park, C. 2022. Tools for forecasting pests extends to annual weeds and biocontrol agents. Newsletter for the Western Society of Weed Science. Winter 2022, 5?6. Available at: https://wsweedscience.org/wp-content/uploads/WSWS-Newsletter-2022-Winter.pdf
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Barker, B. S., Dorman, S., and Rondon, S. 2023. Spatial risk modeling and decision support systems for IPM. [Symposium]. Annual conference of the Entomological Society of America Pacific Branch, Apr. 3, 2023, Seattle, WA. 35 attendees. Abstracts available online: https://esa.confex.com/esa/2023pb/meetingapp.cgi/Session/38793
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Coop, L. and B. S. Barker. 2023. Phenological mapping approaches for IPM decision support. Oral presentation at the Pacific Branch Entomological Society of America. Annual Meeting. Apr. 3, 2023. Seattle, WA. Regional. ca. 30 attendees.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Barker, B. S., L. Coop, A. Rosemartin, and T. Crimmins. 2023. Spatial forecast of phenology and climate suitability for emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis. Oral presentation at the annual Entomological Society of America Pacific Branch Meeting, Apr. 3, 2023. Seattle, WA. ca. 30 attendees.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Barker, B. S. 2023. Real-time forecasts of phenology and climate suitability for emerald ash borer. Webinar for the EAB University, Apr. 13, 2023. Online event. 17 attendees. Available at: https://youtu.be/GSAird76myM.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Awaiting Publication
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Barker, B. S., L. B. Coop, T. Crimmins, and A. Rosemartin. 2023. Real-time mapping of phenology and establishment risk for emerald ash borer. Oral presentation at the annual Ecological Society of America meeting, Aug. 10, 2023. Portland, OR.
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Coop, L. 2023. Using Degree-days to Help Time Crop and Pest Activities. Pesticide Safety Education Webinar Series. Feb. 14, 2023. Online, Regional. 65 participants.
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Barker, B. And L. Coop. 2023. Introduction to boxwood blight and infection model risk apps. Pesticide Safety Education Webinar Series. Jan. 18, 2023. Online, Regional. 223 participants.
- Type:
Other
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2022
Citation:
Coop, L. and B. Barker. 2022. Boxwood blight infection risk app and climate suitability modeling. Oregon Boxwood Health Workshop. Oct. 20, 2022. Aurora, OR. 48 participants.
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