Performing Department
Forestry and Environmental Res
Non Technical Summary
The United States (U.S.) South, 13 southeastern states from Virginia to Texas, has approximately 245 million acres of forestland, covering about 46% of the total land use. The forest sector incorporates all the forest related industries beginning from tree growers, forest management support enterprises and laborers, loggers, primary and secondary forest product industries to other crucial forestry stakeholders such as forest managers, consultants, associations, and timber contractors. The forest sector in this region is a vital economic engine, particularly in the rural regional economy, as the forest product industry is one of the top employers among all manufacturing industries in rural counties. Since early 2020, every sector of the economy throughout the world has grappled with the global COVID-19 Pandemic, and forestry and forest product industry are no exception. Forestry and forest-based employment and businesses in the rural economies have reportedly realized mixed impacts throughout the Pandemic. Since the Pandemic began, while lumber (processed sawn wood) prices have been record highs lately, standing timber (stumpage) prices have remained flat or trended downward in the southern markets. The lower timber prices directly affect the overall forest management and the return potential of all spectrum of forest landowners ranging from family forest owners to industrial corporate ownerships. Similarly, forestry operations including timber harvests and logging have also been negatively impacted in the wake of the Pandemic. While wood processing mills such as sawmills have realized higher profits from the skyrocketed lumber prices, other forest-based businesses including forest landowners, contractors, seasonal migrant workers, and loggers have struggled amidst the looming Pandemic. The overall goal of this integrated project is to evaluate the impacts of the Pandemic on forestry and the forest product industry throughout the supply chain, and identify, develop, and disseminate the strategies to revitalize the southern forest-based rural economy in the post-pandemic era. Using the advanced causal inference approaches, this project intends to quantify the pandemic impacts on standing timber markets and forest-based workforce. Furthermore, using various social science tools and techniques, this project will also evaluate the Pandemic impacts on forest landowners, forest management, seasonal migrant workers, and corporate social responsibility (CSR) efforts of the forest product companies in the wake of the Pandemic. The specific objectives are to: 1) evaluate the impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on roundwood markets, forest landowners, and forest management in the U.S. South; 2) examine the impacts of the pandemic on forest-based employment and workforce involved in the forestry supply chain in rural southern states; 3) investigate the pandemic impacts on the forest product industry including their corporate social responsibility contribution during the pandemic; and 4) develop and deliver an Extension program in the post-pandemic forest management strategies and rural economic development to promote rural prosperity in forested counties in the U.S. South.These proposed activities are timely and will greatly contribute to the policy prescriptions and forest management implications in order to revitalize forest-based rural economies in the U.S. South. This integrated project is to inform policy response to reduced or delayed investments in reforestation and management resulting from the pandemic (due to reduced landowners' income and reduced availability of migrant labor). Other motivations of this study include: (a) learn lessons useful for shaping the public response to similar future economic disruptions, (b) identify which parts of the industry and which stakeholders were most resilient and which most vulnerable to these disruptions, thus learning and transferring lessons about successful adaptations strategies, (c) shed light on how labor shocks affect different stages in the supply chain (plantation, harvest, transport, and timber processing), (d) examine whether and how companies and landowners adjust CSR commitments in response to the economic shock, and (e) educate forest landowners and stakeholders about the new issues and opportunities in forest management in the changing economic landscape. Therefore, it is crucial that we review the Pandemic-related impacts, opportunities, and challenges to forest management and forest product companies and explore the possible policy and management supports to revitalize and foster forest-based rural economic development. This need is even more pressing if the projections from early studies, which only assessed first-order impacts of the Pandemic, are accurate in that impacts vary by industry, region, persistence, order, and magnitude. The results of this study will have broader implications to revive forest management and the forest product industry in the U.S. South, the largest wood basket in the world. As the impacts of the lingering Pandemic on forestry and forest product markets are reportedly mixed, quantifying the welfare impacts of the largest health crisis on various forest-based businesses and industries is the crucial step towards the appropriate policy and market supports to revive forest-based rural businesses in the U.S. South. Similarly, documenting and publicizing the possible forest management strategies in the post-Pandemic period will augment the recovery efforts to maintain sustainable forestry and rural economic development in the U.S. South. Quantification of the Pandemic impacts on standing timber markets, forestry workforce, and forest product industry at a regional scale, which will be crucial information for governments and policymakers in designing support packages and post-Pandemic recovery programs and efforts in the U.S. South. Some of the expected results include: (a) improved understanding of the Pandemic impacts on forest landowners and changes in their perceptions and strategies of forest management in the post-Pandemic era; (b) documentation of the industry and stakeholders which were the most resilient and the most vulnerable to economic impacts - thus, learning and transferring lessons about successful adaptations strategies for similar future external shocks; (c) corporate social responsibility of the forest product industry during this unprecedented situation, as the forest product manufacturing firms represent the top employer among manufacturing industries in the rural counties; (d) status of the seasonal forestry migrant workers during the Pandemic, as they play a crucial role in tree planting and other forest management practices in the U.S. South; (e) research and Extension capital building for a USDA priority area; training a post-doc and three graduate students in forest economics, policy, and social science fields.
Animal Health Component
0%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
25%
Applied
75%
Developmental
0%
Goals / Objectives
The overall goal of this integrated project is to evaluate the impacts of the Pandemic on forestry and the forest product industry throughout the supply chain, and identify, develop, and disseminate the strategies to revitalize the southern forest-based rural economy in the post-pandemic era. Using the advanced causal inference approaches, this project intends to quantify the pandemic impacts on standing timber markets and forest-based workforce. Furthermore, using various social science tools and techniques, this project will also evaluate the Pandemic impacts on forest landowners, forest management, seasonal migrant workers, and corporate social responsibility (CSR) efforts of the forest product companies in the wake of the Pandemic. The specific objectives are:Evaluate the impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on standing roundwood markets, forest landowners, and forest management in the U.S. SouthEstimate the welfare impacts of the Pandemic on local timber markets in the southern statesExamine the pandemic impact on landowners and explore the issues and opportunities in post-pandemic forest management in the U.S. SouthExamine the impacts of the pandemic on forest-based employment and workforce involved in the forestry supply chain in rural southern statesExamine the impacts of the Pandemic on the employment in forest related industries in rural countiesEvaluate the impacts of the Pandemic on seasonal migrant workers (H-2B) involved in forestry operationsInvestigate the impact of the Pandemic on the forest product industry in the U.S. South and their corporate social responsibility (CSR) contribution to local communities during the PandemicTo develop and deliver an Extension program in post-pandemic forest management strategies and rural economic development to promote rural prosperity in forested counties in the U.S. South
Project Methods
The project will consider all 13 southern states (AL, AR, FL, GA, KY, LA, MS, NC, OK, SC, TN, TX, and VA). The methods specific to the objectives are presented briefly below:Activity 1.1 Estimate the welfare impacts of the Pandemic on local timber markets in the U.S. South:To investigate the causal effects of the Pandemic on timber prices, we will employ the Time Regression Discontinuity Design (Time RD) and Difference-in-Difference (DID) methods, similar to Hausman and Rapson (2017) and Ruan et al. (2021).We will utilize multiple-year bi-monthly timber price data beginning from 2005 in 39 micro-markets in the U.S. South.Once the price impacts are estimated, we will evaluate the welfare impacts of the pandemic on forest landowners using a partial equilibrium framework.Activity 1.2. Examine the pandemic impact on landowners and identify priorities and opportunities in post-pandemic forest management in the U.S. South:We will conduct a mixed-mode social science inquiry of landowners and other crucial forestry stakeholders to explore the challenges and opportunities in forest management in the looming Pandemic and ways forward. Specifically we aim to document landowners' perceived impacts of the pandemic, and their new forest management strategies in the post-Pandemic period.Our overall survey instruments will aim to evaluate (1) immediate changes in forest management during the Pandemic, (2) long-term changes induced by the Pandemic, and (3) variations in either (1) or (2).In terms of survey administration, a mixed-mode (email and mail) survey will be conducted to collect data on the Pandemic's impact on forest landowners, federal economic recovery plan and assistance programs, new issues and opportunities in forestry, and landowners' financial and management strategies in the post-Pandemic era. About 15,000 forest landowner's contact addresses (both corporate and non-industrial corporate) will be purchased from the private companies such as Exact Data or Dunn and Bradstreet.Landowners owning at least 20-acre of forest tract in 13 southern states will be included into the sampling pool. Those who have an email address will be first invited by email with a link to an online survey. Those who do not respond to the email survey or who do not have email contact will then be approached by mail. We will follow the Tailored Design Method of Internet and Mail Surveys (Dillman et al. 2014), which involves following up the initial invitation with three additional reminders and using personalized cover letters and pre-paid business reply envelopes to encourage participation.Activity 2.1. Examine the impacts of the pandemic on forest-based employment and workforce involved in the forestry supply chain in rural southern states:In order to quantify the impact of the Pandemic on employment in forestry related industries and activities, we will employ a two-way fixed effects (2WFE) estimation approach (Chaisemartin and D'Haultfoeuille 2020a, b; Steigerwald et al. 2021) in a panel data setting. First, we will identify the counties in each southern states, which have at least 60% forest cover and host a number of forest product industries and major forest harvest operations. We will also use a multivariate cluster analysis to distinguish counties with strong dependence on forests from other counties. This information will be obtained from the USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data records and tools (USDA Forest Service 2021). Occupational statistics by NAICS codes will be retrieved from secondary sources such as the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, or O*NET Online. We will incorporate NAICS industries related to forestry, forest products, and timber tract production (NAICS 113210), logging (NAICS 113310), forestry consultants (NAICS 115310), sawmills (NAICS 321000), pulp and paper (NAICS 322000), and furniture industries (NAICS 337000) into our analysis. The effects of the Pandemic on sector-specific employment will be investigated by estimating the average treatment effects of the Pandemic in forest-dependent rural counties in the U.S. South.Activity 2.2: Evaluate the impacts of the Pandemic on seasonal immigrant workers involved in forest operations: We will use a mixed method approach with both qualitative and quantitative data collection and analysis from multiple audiences to triangulate the information and gain a comprehensive understanding of the H-2B forest labor in the first year of the project to understand the implications of the Pandemic impact on H-2B labor and subsequent impact on southern forest management and changes in migrant labor supply and costs (Creswell and Creswell 2017).?Activity 3. Investigate the impact of the Pandemic on the forest product industry in the U.S. South and their corporate social responsibility (CSR) contribution to local communities during the Pandemic: We will survey mill managers and CSR managers from wood-using mills in the U.S. South to explore the pandemic impacts and contribution of the forest product industry to the local communities. Specifically, we will: (a) assess the Impacts of the Pandemic on the operational readiness of wood-consuming mills in the Southern U.S. and the adaptation strategies adopted by them to mitigate the risks posed by the Pandemic in the short and long terms, and (a) ascertain the response of forestry corporations for providing relief supports to local communities under the aegis of their CSR across the U.S. SouthActivity 4. Develop and deliver an Extension program in post-pandemic forest management strategies and rural economic development to promote rural prosperity in forested counties: We will develop and deliver several Extension and outreach activities to increase awareness and knowledge of forest landowners on new forest management strategies and timber marketing in the post-Pandemic period. We will utilize focus groups and landowner survey to identify the new evolving forest management strategies, and develop educational materials and organize daylong regional workshops in the third year of the project. We will also organize local focus group discussions on information exchange and ideas brainstorming on the Pandemic impacts and potential strategies to revitalize rural economy in the post-Pandemic era. We will provide research-based information as well as existing information to all forest landowners, consultants, foresters, and Extension agents through Extension publications starting in the third year of the project.