Progress 04/01/24 to 03/31/25
Outputs
Target Audience:Mani Rouhi Rad developed a graduate classroom curricula on modeling land use change based on the integrated hydro-salinity model at Texas A&M University. Yvette Uwineza and Mani Rouhi Rad presented the results of the analysis at the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in New Orleans, LA.Mani Rouhi Rad presented the results of the analysis at the Texas Water Resources Institute's seminar. Hepresented the results of the analysis at the Soil and Crop Sciences Department at Texas A&M University.He also presented the results of the analysis at the Blackland Research and Extension Center at Texas A&M University. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Suter developed a collaboration with the Lower Arkansas Conservation District as a result of this project, which resulted in additional funding on the impact of losing irrigated lands. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Presentations across the Texas A&M University created engagement and collaboration opportunities for Rouhi Rad. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?We plan to submit manuscripts on the analysis that was performed under objectives 2 and 4.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
We have accomplished the tasks under objectives 1 and 2; objective 4 is partially complete. Currently, we are working on objectives 3 and 5.
Publications
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2024
Citation:
Rouhi Rad, Mani, and Nataly Medina. 2024. Water Scarcity Exacerbates the Negative Effects of Salinity on Irrigated Agriculture.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2024
Citation:
Uwineza, Y., Nozari, S., Suter, J.F. and Rouhi Rad, M. 2024. Agricultural-Urban Water Transactions and Salinity: A Case Study in the Lower Arkansas River Valley.
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Progress 04/01/23 to 03/31/24
Outputs
Target Audience:The team developed manuscripts, integrated models, and results that were used to interact with the target audience. Mani Rouhi Rad presented the preliminary results of the integrated hydro-salinity model and its implications for the management of salinity from irrigation at the Social Cost of Water Pollution Workshop which "is intended to coordinate and encourage research and policy discussion of Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) for water quality, and to push forward our understanding of the benefits and costs of water quality improvements." (https://www.atkinson.cornell.edu/projects/social-cost-of-water-pollution-workshop/). The audience is national and the workshop is co-organized by the EPA. Mani Rouhi Rad developed classroom curricula based on the integrated hydro-salinity model that is used to teach graduate students in the Water Management and Hydrological Sciences at Texas A&M University. Students have a variety of backgrounds, including hydrology, engineering, and economics. The model allows them to understand the interactions between economic and hydrologic models, and the importance of both social and natural systems in managing environmental pollution. Jordan Suter discussed model development and implementation with board members of the Lower Arkansas Valley Water Conservancy District and staff at CSU's Arkansas Valley Research Center. These conversations are related to concerns in the area related to the sale of agricultural water rights to municipalities along the front range of Colorado. Suter has also worked with PhD student Yvette Uwineza, who has presented research results to researchers in environmental and resource economics at Colorado State University. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?As a result of meeting with local stakeholder, the team learned about other issues of importance to producers that were not part of the original objectives but could be answered using the integrated model. One of the issues included the effect of water transfers from agricultural areas to urban areas. Due to the change in the location of water withdrawal, these transfers can increase the salinity of water for downstream communities. The team is currently developing a manuscript that studies the effect of water transfers on downstream agricultural producers through increased water salinity. Rouhi Rad was awarded a NIFA FAS grant to study the adaptation of agricultural production in the Western US. The proposal was developed based on the learnings from this project. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?
Nothing Reported
What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Four manuscripts will be submitted in the next reporting period that use the generated data and the hydro-salinity-economic model to study the effects and costs of soil and water salinity and the management of salinity. Presentations based on two of the manuscripts will be presented at the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA) annual meeting in July of 2024 in New Orleans, LA.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
The over-arching goal of this project is to develop a better understanding of the trade-offs associated with spatially-explicit irrigation management policies that can reduce the costs of salinity-related externalities in irrigated agricultural regions. Objective 1.Estimate the effects of soil salinity and water salinity on land use and irrigation decisions. The effect of soil and water salinity on land use, crop choice, and subsequently, irrigation decisions, were estimated using the hydro-economic-salinity model (see objective 2). Objective 2.Develop an integrated hydro-salinity-economic model. A hydro-salinity model was developed that integrates hydrological model (surface water (SWAT), groundwater (MODFLOW), and salinity (UZ-3D)) and an economic model (a custom-made model of discrete crop choice in response to changes in the environmental (soil and water salinity) and market conditions). Objective 3.Use the integrated model to estimate transfer coefficients for land parcels across the watershed. Simulations are currently being undertaken to estimate the effect of land fallowing (conversion from production to fallow) on the salinity downstream. Objective 4.Use the integrated model to assess the efficacy of specific water management policies. The effect of conservation payment for salinity management is being studied using the hydro-salinity model. Also, the effects of land fallowing is being compared to improving irrigation efficiency (i.e., conversion from furrow to sprinkler) Objective 5.Develop and disseminate a user-friendly platform for making the modeling framework accessible to researchers and policymakers in other areas. The integrated model is developed within a user-friendly platform. The team will plan to disseminate the product.
Publications
- Type:
Theses/Dissertations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Medina, N., 2023. Water Scarcity: Impact on Water Rights, Institutions, and an Irrigated Agriculture.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Nozari, S., 2023. Analysis of different strategies for managing soil salinity. UCOWR, Annual Meeting, Fort Collins, CO. 06/2023.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Uwineza, Yvette., Preliminary results of the integrated hydro-salinity model and impacts of agricultural to urban water transfers in the region. Environmental and Natural Resource Economics Laboratory, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Fort Collins, CO, 10/11/2023
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Progress 04/01/22 to 03/31/23
Outputs
Target Audience:Mani Rouhi Rad, Ryan Bailey, Jordan Suter, Soheil Nozari, and Yvette Uwineza undertook a trip to the study area in southeast Colorado on March 29-30, 2023. During their visit, they had the opportunity to meet with extension specialists and local farmers at Colorado State University's Arkansas Valley Research Center in Rocky Ford. In the meeting, the project members provided an explanation of the project's scope and goals. Extension specialists and farmers then shared valuable insights into the region's soil and water salinity issues, as well as the challenges posed by transferring irrigation water rights to municipalities. The remainder of the meeting focused on discussions regarding the specific planting and irrigation strategies employed by farmers to alleviate the negative impact of salinity on their productivity. The meeting resulted in new research questions that are being undertaken by the research team. After the meeting, the project members had the opportunity to visit a number of farms in the region, particularly those impacted by soil salinization. Changes/Problems:PI Rouhi Rad moved from Clemson University to Texas A&M University at College Station. The new project PI is Debabrata Sahoo. The development of the integrated model took slightly more time than expected as the existing hydro-salinity model needed major modifications to be useful within an integrated framework. While we are slightly behind schedule, the team is determined to meet the objectives of the project. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Mani Rouhi Rad Mentored a MS Student, Nataly Median (Agricultural Sciences, Clemson University), who wrote a thesis titled "Water Scarcity: Impact on Water Rights, Institutions, and an Irrigated Agriculture". The thesis has two chapters: one on the water rights and institutions in southeastern US and one on the interactions between water scarcity and salinity in the Lower Arkansas River Valley, which is the study area of the project. Nataly defended her thesis June 2023. Debabrata Sahoo and Jordan Suter were also committee members for Nataly's thesis. Nataly was funded by the project and will graduate Summer of 2023. Jordan Suter mentored a PhD Student, Yvette Uwineza (Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Colorado State University). Ryan Bailey mentored a PhD student, Soheil Nozari (Civil Engineering, Colorado State University) How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Mani Rouhi Rad, Ryan Bailey, Jordan Suter, Soheil Nozari, and Yvette Uwineza undertook a trip to the study area in southeast Colorado on March 29-30, 2023. During their visit, they had the opportunity to meet with extension specialists and local farmers at Colorado State University's Arkansas Valley Research Center in Rocky Ford. In the meeting, the project members provided an explanation of the project's scope and goals. Extension specialists and farmers then shared valuable insights into the region's soil and water salinity issues, as well as the challenges posed by transferring irrigation water rights to municipalities. The remainder of the meeting focused on discussions regarding the specific planting and irrigation strategies employed by farmers to alleviate the negative impact of salinity on their productivity. The meeting resulted in new research questions that are being undertaken by the research team. After the meeting, the project members had the opportunity to visit a number of farms in the region, particularly those impacted by soil salinization. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?The team has developed a model of decision making for producers in response to incentives for fallowing the land. The team has also developed models of the effects of efficient irrigation technologies at the parcel-level. In the next year, we will integrate the economic model of decision making with the already developed hydro-salinity model. The team is currently working on developing the batch scripts for integration. The integrated model will then be used to study the change in welfare at the watershed level as a result of different payments for fallowing the land. The model will also be used to estimate the positive externalities of fallowing land for other users. The team has developed a model of decision making for producers in response to incentives for fallowing the land. The team has also developed models of the effects of efficient irrigation technologies at the parcel-level. In the next year, we will integrate the economic model of decision making with the already developed hydro-salinity model. The team is currently working on developing the batch scripts for integration. The integrated model will then be used to study the change in welfare at the watershed level as a result of different payments for fallowing the land (Obj 4). The model will also be used to estimate the positive externalities of fallowing land for other users (Obj 3). When the integration is done, the developed model will be available to stakeholders for use (Obj 5).
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
Objective 1: Estimate the effects of soil salinity and water salinity on land use and irrigation decisions. Analyzed behavior related to transitions in irrigation management and crop choice to understand how switching from flood to center pivot irrigation impacts crop production, water use, and the implications for salinity management. Analyzed how soil salinity and water scarcity affect producers' crop choice and land use decisions using historical data and multinomial logit models. It was found that salinity increases the likelihood that producers fallow their land. Furthermore, water scarcity exacerbates theseeffects because irrigation is often used as a strategy to reduce salinity in the soil root zone. Objective 2: Develop an integrated hydro-salinity-economic model. The hydro-salinity model (the SWAT-MODFLOW-Salt model) has been developed and is ready for integration with the economic model. A system command is included within the hydro-salinity model code for the execution of an external program, specifically the economic model in this particular case. The economic component of the model has also been developed that determines crop choice and land use decisions based on soil salinity and economic incentives. The integration of the two components is currently in progress. Objective 3: In progress. Objective 4: We explored the impacts of a variety of irrigation and planting strategies on salinity levels in the root zone, groundwater, and surface water using the hydro-salinity model. The irrigation strategies analyzed included different irrigation systems and target values for soil moisture. The planting strategies involved increasing the sorghum area or implementing intermittent fallowing with varying percentages Objective 5: In progress.
Publications
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2022
Citation:
Managing Soil and Water Salinity in an Irrigated Agricultural Region Using an Integrated Hydro-Salinity-Economic Model, AGU Fall Meeting, Chicago, IL, December 2022. Presenter: Soheil Nozari
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2022
Citation:
Mani Rouhi Rad Managing Salinity Using an Integrated Hydro-Salinity-Economic Model
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2022
Citation:
Conference Presentation: Effects of Soil Salinity and Irrigation Sources on Agricultural Land Values in Colorados Lower Arkansas Valley, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association Annual Meeting, Anaheim, CA, July 2022. Presenter Jordan Suter
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2022
Citation:
Efficient Management of Water Resources in the Eastern US, UCOWR Annual Conference June 14-16 2022, Greenville, SC, Presenter: Nataly Medina
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Progress 04/01/21 to 03/31/22
Outputs
Target Audience:
Nothing Reported
Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?The project provided training opportunities for a PhD student, Soheil Nozari, at Colorado State University under the mentorship of Co-PI Ryan Bailey and a MS student, Nataly Medina, in Applied Economics under the mentorship of PI Rouhi Rad. Nozari developed skills in model development, model application, and manipulating large datasets using Python scripting. He has created scripting tools that facilitates the writing, reading, and processing of large model inputs and outputs. He has learned about salinity impact on crop yield, and how to incorporate this into the SWAT-MODFLOW-Salt modeling system. Medina developed skills in cleaning and managing data using R for the analysis and learned about the econometric models of discrete choice derived from the random utility model. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?
Nothing Reported
What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?The team is slightly behind schedule in meeting the project timeline partly because of our decision, based on feedback from other researchers, to prioritize the discrete choice model of crop choice over the profit-maximizing model of producer behavior. Nevertheless, we are currently meeting the timeline in integrating the two parts of the model, namely the economic model of producer decision making and the hydrological model of the study area. In the second year of the project, the team will estimate the effect of salinity on land use and irrigation decisions using historical data and develop an integrated hydro-salinity-economic model that iteratively combines a hydrologic model that accounts for salt fate and transport in an irrigated stream-aquifer system, and an economic model that generates predictions of agricultural producer behavior. The hydro-salinity-economic model will be applied to an agricultural region in the Lower Arkansas River Basin of Colorado to study the tradeoffs among different water management policies that are designed to reduce the costs of salinity. We plan to analyze both price and quota-based policies, with the specific policy details determined through discussions with stakeholders in the region.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
Soil and water salinity are pervasive global challenges that increasingly impact the viability of agricultural production and rural communities. Elevated salinity negatively affects crop yields, reduces agricultural profits, and degrades agricultural land values. The goal of this project is to develop a better understanding of the tradeoffs associated with spatially explicit irrigation management policies that can reduce the costs of salinity-related externalities. In the first year of the project, the team collaboratively worked to develop the elements of the integrated hydro-salinity-economic model that iteratively combines a hydrologic model that accounts for salt fate and transport in an irrigated stream-aquifer system, and an economic model that generates predictions of agricultural producer behavior. The main accomplishments of the first year of the project are described below: Objective 1. 1) PI Bailey and Soheil Nozari (PhD student at CSU) modified the existing hydro-salinity model SWAT-MODFLOW-Salt in several ways. In the original version of the hydro-salinity model, salinity stress was compared to other stresses and the most dominant daily stress impacted optimum crop growth on that day. In the modified version of the model, salinity stress impacts daily crop growth independently based on the coefficients provided by Maas and Hoffman (1975). In the original model, pumping rate values in the MODFLOW model were based on historical diversion records, while in the modified version, the SWAT model dictates pumping rates based on irrigation demand in groundwater irrigated parcels. Pulling out computed daily salinity level in every soil layer and providing it as a new model output was another modification. Moreover, historical simulation period was extended from 1999-2009 to 1999-2015. The hydrology team generated a dataset that would be used by the economic model to determine producer decision making. The dataset includes historical crop choice decisions of the producers in our study area in the Arkansas River Basin of Colorado. We then computed crop yields, irrigation application, and fertilizer application rates for historical crop choices along with alternative crop choices that were not selected for each parcel through running the modified hydro-salinity model for various crop selection scenarios. These simulations were carried out using historical salinity levels in the soil, surface water and groundwater as initial conditions. The dataset also includes salinity levels before, during, and after the growing season, which allows the economic model to estimate the relationship between these variables and crop choice decisions. The dataset also includes computed parcel-level values of irrigation and fertilizer application for each crop in each year. 2) In the Western US, water rights are an important determinant of water availability for irrigation. We developed a semi-structured survey and reached out to canal company managers to gather insights about the management practices both at the farm level and at the ditch level. We received responses on the questions from three individuals in the Lower Arkansas Basin, two canal managers and one researcher/extension agent. Based on the responses, we learned that 1) producers are increasingly concerned about water salinity issues, but that individual canal companies have not implemented specific management practices to reduce the negative impacts of salinity; 2) producers own individual shares within a canal that allow them to divert a percentage of the water flowing in the canal; 3) Individual canal companies vary in the seniority of the water rights that they hold, but seniority (and therefore priority) does not vary within shareholders of a given canal; 4) There are limited markets for rental or leasing of water shares within each ditch but information on the terms of these leases is not available from the canal companies; 5) Canal managers expressed concern that the annual assessments that shareholders pay continues to increase each year. These higher assessment costs likely prevent individual canals from exploring additional investments in the canal system that could improve water use efficiency or reduce salinity impacts; 6) The managers that we spoke with, however, were very interested to hear about our work and willing to provide feedback as our research progresses. 3) Two economic models of irrigation decisions were considered. An optimization model of the producer decisions making. This model was developed based on the assumption that a myopic producer would maximize their profits based on the salinity levels and select a crop to plant. The model shows that as salinity levels in soil and water bodies increase, a profit maximizing producer switches to more salt tolerant crops. This model, however, does not necessarily capture the heterogeneity of producers. As a result, a second discrete choice model of producer decisions in being considered. This model relies on the profitability of alternative crops. The economic team collected the necessary data, such as crop prices and fertilizer costs for different crops. 4) PI Suter has carried out an empirical analysis using agricultural land parcels that have transacted in Otero County, CO over the last 10 years to evaluate how soil salinity values impact the price per acre of agricultural land. The results show that soil salinity negatively impacts land values, which helps to illustrate the potential benefits associated with management practices that can reduce the impacts of salinity. Objective 2. The integrated model integrates the producer model of decision making with the hydro-salinity model that models the transport of salinity within the watershed. In other words, the two major elements of the integrated model are the economic model of crop choice decisions and the hydrological model of salt transport. Our progress in the first year of the project in developing both the model of producer decision making and modifying the existing hydrological model allows us to build the integrated model in the second year of the project. Objective 3. As mentioned in objective 2, the building blocks of the integrated model include the economic model of decision making and the hydrological model of water flow and salt transport. The model of the producer developed in the first year of the study includes three variables that affect the crop choice decisions of a producer: salinity in soil and water, profitability that depends on the cost of irrigation, and the quantity of water available. These variables allow us to estimate how changes in salinity affect producers' welfare. Developing the integrated model will allow us to estimate the effect of one unit increase in irrigation at parcel i on the change in welfare in parcel j. Objective 4. The model of the producer developed in the first year of the study includes three variables that affect the crop choice decisions of a producer: salinity in soil and water, profitability that depends on the cost of irrigation, and the quantity of water available. Based on this model, we can simulate responses to changes in the price of irrigation water or a limit on the quantity of the water that can be extracted. These simulations will be used to compare the efficacy of different price-based and quantity-based policies. Objective 5. In developing the elements of the model in the first year, the team has considered the fact that the model will be disseminated when fully developed. As a result, the elements of the model have been considered as variables such that new users and local policymakers are able to change the variables.
Publications
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