INFEWS/T1: Groundwater and the future of sustainable agriculture - balancing economic, energy, and water constraints on food production

INFEWS/T1: GROUNDWATER AND THE FUTURE OF SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE - BALANCING ECONOMIC, ENERGY, AND WATER CONSTRAINTS ON FOOD PRODUCTION

Sponsoring Institution

National Institute of Food and Agriculture

Project Status

ACTIVE

Funding Source

AFRI COMPETITIVE GRANT

Reporting Frequency

Annual

Accession No.

1025703

Grant No.

2021-67020-34178

Cumulative Award Amt.

$2,070,000.00

Proposal No.

2021-02591

Multistate No.

(N/A)

Project Start Date

Oct 1, 2020

Project End Date

Sep 30, 2025

Grant Year

2021

Program Code

[A3151]- Interagency Climate Change

Recipient Organization
PRINCETON UNIV
(N/A)
PRINCETON,NJ 08544

Performing Department
Civil and Environmental Eng.

Non Technical Summary
Groundwater is a critical supply for irrigated agriculture in the U.S. and around the world; however, the challenges associatedwith managing a resource that can not be seen have resulted in inefficient, and often unsustainable, usage. Declininggroundwater levels increase the energy demand for pumping and threaten the stability of the food production systems theysupport. Still, groundwater is routinely oversimplified in agricultural food, energy and water (FEW) systems analysis. This leavescurrent approaches blind to the synergies that can be realized when groundwater extraction, crop choices and energy demandare managed in an integrated framework. The proposed study seeks to address scientific gaps in groundwater observationsand integrated modeling, and develop the next generation tools needed to fully incorporate groundwater into FEW systemsanalysis. To do this we will develop new tools that quantitatively connect groundwater economics, energy consumption anddecision making from farm to national scales. The project team of hydrologists, economists, geographers, engineers, andeducation specialists will combine disciplinary expertise to address four research questions. (1) How does the presence of watertrading impact food production, energy use, and groundwater sustainability and what incentive structures lead to the bestoutcomes? (2) Can we use global satellite data to inform high resolution estimates of terrestrial water storagechanges? (3) How do regional interactions influence national groundwater trends? (4) How have scalar disparities ingroundwater science and management been produced, and how can modeling help reconcile these discrepancies to improveFEWS resilience and sustainability?

Animal Health Component

70%

Research Effort Categories

Basic

(N/A)

Applied

70%

Developmental

30%

Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)	Subject of Investigation (SOI)	Field of Science (FOS)	Percent
111	0210	2050	40%
903	0310	2050	20%
605	0199	2050	40%

Knowledge Area
605 - Natural Resource and Environmental Economics; 111 - Conservation and Efficient Use of Water; 903 - Communication, Education, and Information Delivery;

Subject Of Investigation
0310 - River basins; 0210 - Water resources; 0199 - Soil and land, general;

Field Of Science
2050 - Hydrology;

Keywords

groundwater

hydrologic modeling

irrigated agriculture

water storage

water trading

econometric analysis

energy system modeling

Goals / Objectives
Groundwater is a critical water supply for irrigated agriculture, accounting for 43% of the total consumptive water use byirrigation worldwide and 53% in North America [1]. However, widespread overexploitation threatens supply, and in turn, thesustainability and resilience of groundwater dependent food, energy, and water (FEW) systems [2-4]. Groundwater is uniquelychallenging because it is sparsely monitored and difficult to model. As a result, it is routinely oversimplified or excludedcompletely from systems analysis. This is especially concerning as we increasingly rely on groundwater to support agriculturewhen surface water supplies are low. The positive relationship between groundwater depth and energy demand, as well asfeedbacks between groundwater depth, soil moisture and crop stress highlight the need for novel approaches that can capturethese interactions at the spatial scales needed for regional and national planning.Our team - made up of FEW scholars from the fields of hydrology, economics, engineering, geography and education - willdevelop a novel interdisciplinary modeling framework that captures both economic drivers and institutional governanceframeworks. Ourgoalis to evaluate the role of groundwater in agricultural FEW systems in terms of both historical resilience,and future sustainability. We will study the impacts of different groundwater management approaches on regional foodproduction, water availability, and energy demand. We will develop new tools that quantitatively connect groundwatereconomics, energy consumption and decision making from farm to regional and national scales. The proposed work will (1)improve estimates of groundwater storage changes for food production, (2) quantify feedbacks between groundwater usage,food production and energy demand, (3) demonstrate proof of concept for a national simulation platform to evaluate futuregroundwater governance approaches, and (4) engage FEW decision-makers in the modeling process and results, and (5)advance FEW education and outreach in within K-12 and higher education.

Project Methods
Our goalis to develop an integrated FEW simulation platform that can (1) connect groundwater usage to institutional incentivestructures and energy prices, (2) evaluate the integrated hydrologic impacts of different agricultural strategies and (3) simulatehigh resolution groundwater depletions constrained by satellite estimates. To do this, we will bring together: an integratedhydrologic model, energy sector model, regional econometric models and institutional knowledge from manager interviews. Thecombined platform will be constructed starting from a state-of-the-art hydrologic model of the US and an energy planning model(Section 4.2). In depth economic analysis will evaluate groundwater usage patterns and outcomes in different institutionalsettings and derive functional relationships for farmer decision making based on water availability and energy costs for tworepresentative regions Colorado and Arizona (Sections 4.1 and 4.3). Historical analysis and future projections will be advancedby integrating GRACE remote sensing of terrestrial water storage changes into the hydrologic simulations (Section 4.4). Modelscenario development will be informed by stakeholder interviews which will also be used to evaluate the scales at which modelsand observations can be most effective in improving management outcomes (Section 4.5). In addition to focused simulations inthe regional study areas, the resulting integrated tool will be used as a national framework to evaluate potential FEW systemgains from alternative groundwater management strategies that optimize surface water availability and energy demand. We willdemonstrate proof of concept for national simulations evaluating regional tradeoffs that occur with increased groundwaterregulation.

Progress 10/01/22 to 09/30/23

Outputs
Target Audience:Our target audience spans water managers, farmers, water consultants and practitioners, and K-12 educators across the upper and lower Colorado system. Our team will specifically include underrepresented groups within this audience and our project has multiple paths to engage these stakeholders. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Economics PI Colby supported two students related to this project (Reed-Spitzer and Speight), with funding from this grant and other sources. Graduate students meet weekly with Dr. Colby, and several times monthly with the combined Hydrology Economics project team. Graduate students are gaining experience in giving presentations, working with complex data, proficiency in new software and programming, and in collaborating on interdisciplinary research. Both economics students presented their work at several conferences in this reporting period. PI Smith has supported one PhD student related to this project (Cooley) who has accepted a position at the University of Wyoming to begin on January 3rd, 2023. Hydrology This project supports Danielle Tadych who is a PhD student at the University of Arizona getting her degree in Hydrology and Atmospheric sciences. In addition to her coursework Danielle has had the opportunity to present at multiple local and national conferences, participate and present at our project wide team meetings and participate and lead our student and postdoc group. This project supports PhD candidate Danielle Tijerina-Kreuzer and PhD student Nick Jadallah at Princeton. These students have also had formal and informal training opportunities at Princeton, through workshops and at conferences. Geography/Environmental Studies School of Mines MS advisee Jeff Immell has been trained in U.S. water policy and qualitative research methods in addition to standard Hydrology coursework. He is also gaining experience in independent research and the publishing process. Jeff is on track to defend his MS thesis in summer 2024. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Hydrology PhD student Daniell Tadych has completed a study of historical changes in groundwater levels across the state of Arizona and has submitted this work to the Journal of American Water Resources Association (JAWRA). She has also presented her work at multiple local and regional conferences such as the Arizona Hydrological Society annual meeting and the UA annual Hydrology conference where she has interacted with local and state water managers. PhD students Nick Jadallah and Danielle Tijerina-Kreuzer have both presented at international conferences. Education The ParFlow Sandtank educational tool served as the cornerstone for delivering engaging lessons and demonstrations to diverse community members, including parents, students, and educators across a spectrum of educational settings. Dr. Gallagher showcased this work at both national and international conferences and our research team has also published on the ParFlow Sandtank in the Frontiers in Water journal. Geography/Environmental Studies MS advisee has conducted in-depth interviews with 25 resource managers and farmers in the San Luis Valley, CO (and has had informal contact with many others in the valley), which has both served his research process and helped to build a network of practitioners who are interested in receiving the final outputs of the research project. Peer-reviewed journal articles in progress for scholarly audiences (see below). What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Economics The UA economics team continues to develop statistical models in new sub-areas within Arizona to better understand the interactions of climate variables and economic factors on groundwater conditions, in collaboration with the hydrology team. Members of the team have ongoing collaborations with staff and elected officials of small towns and cities. These local governments often lack funding, staff and expertise with relevant data to conduct or apply groundwater-related research for their communities. The Mines economic team continues to develop data on irrigation locations at a higher spatial resolution in additional regions. This next phase will continue to analyze these data as related to other spatial factors, including integration with hydrologic data. Education The education team plans to continue to use and further develop content for the ParFlow Sandtank, while engaging with community partners to deliver FEW-related educational content. We will also collaborate with other project teams to support development of educational resources that arise from related project work. Through these concerted efforts, we aim to enrich educational experiences and promote interdisciplinary learning across diverse domains. Hydrology Building off the groundwater analysis that is currently in review, the UA hydrology team is expanding this work to focus specifically on groundwater changes during drought. We are exploring whether groundwater regulation or access to surface water impact the degree of drawdown and time of recovery for local drought conditions. In addition to the drought work, we are exploring the use of remote sensing to see changes in groundwater dependent ecosystems as a proxy for shallow groundwater levels. Our previous studies have been limited by the location and frequency of data available through well observations. The remote sensing approach will allow us to expand our analysis to areas without good well observations. Geography/Environmental Studies We plan to publish a peer-reviewed journal article about opportunities/barriers for agrivoltaics in areas of water scarcity for energy-water nexus scholars and practitioners in Energy Research & Social Science or equivalent in 2024. We plan to publish a peer-reviewed journal article about the politics of groundwater metering for water scholars and practitioners in Water Alternatives in 2024.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Economics The project economics team consists of faculty economists and their graduate students from the Colorado School of Mines and the University of Arizona. The UA economics team has published a portion of its work on statistical models analyzing water delivery, groundwater pumping, crop mix planted, climate and crop-related economic data in Arizona. The team has also developed stakeholder materials providing guidance on applying public groundwater data to assess trends and guide community planning discussions. These resources were developed to assist small, rural communities that struggle to access and interpret information about groundwater supplies, to inform local decision-making and policy. These resources include a step-by-step guide for accessing and interpreting wells data in Arizona, that did not previously exist. The Community Drought Data Hub gathers, filters, and visualizes water and climate data that would otherwise require significant resources for a community to compile and interpret on their own. The Economic team at Mines has continued to expand efforts to detect irrigation locations remotely and conduct statistical analysis on how it relates to water use and energy development. These efforts dovetail with closely related projects that engage with local stakeholders on water governance for groundwater use leading to additional collaborations and analyses. The irrigation throughout the Great Plains of the USA is affecting where wind energy development occurs and how productive those developments are. The model has also been used in Illinois to understand changing water use, and it has been used in California to assess both wind and solar energy development in that irrigated landscape. Quantitative results of these land and water use decisions for irrigators are being written up for a thesis and subsequently for publications in journals. Education Throughout the current reporting period, the education team has consistently advanced the development and application of the educational tool known as the ParFlow Sandtank, accessible at https://sandtank.hydroframe.org/. This innovative tool serves as an interactive computer simulation replicating a physical aquifer model, empowering users to dynamically explore diverse hydrogeological scenarios. By manipulating system inputs and observing real-time outputs, individuals gain a hands-on understanding of complex concepts. Since the initial introduction of the ParFlow Sandtank, its impact has been far-reaching across various educational settings: 1) A prominent instance was its inclusion in a community event organized for World Water Day at the Watershed Institute (https://thewatershed.org/), attracting approximately 1000 participants, including parents, students, and teachers from New Jersey. 2) Another noteworthy application occurred at a community STEM fair hosted by Princeton University, drawing an audience of around 400 parents and students from New Jersey. 3) The tool played a pivotal role in lessons during the Water and Climate Academy week at the Watershed Institute. Here, 20 high school students actively engaged with the ParFlow Sandtank, enhancing their understanding of hydrogeology through specially designed lessons. 4) Recognizing its educational value, the ParFlow Sandtank has been made available as a valuable resource for educators and students through the Arizona Project WET website (https://gw.projectwet.arizona.edu/community). Furthermore, this valuable resource has garnered attention on both national and international fronts, making appearances at conferences including the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting in December 2022 and the European Geophysical Union Meeting in April 2023. Comprehensive details regarding these presentations are available in the products section of this report, underscoring the tool's recognition and impact on a global scale. Finally, the ParFlow Sandtank has been published in the Frontiers in Water Journal, as highlighted in the publications section of this report. This recognition in a respected journal further solidifies the tool's contribution to the field, establishing it as a noteworthy and peer-reviewed asset in the realm of hydrogeological education. Hydrology The hydrology team at UA has been studying groundwater trends across the state of Arizona. We have assembled a comprehensive water level database pulling all of the observations from multiple stat databases and processing the data for consistency. We also completed a mapping exercise to divide the state into groundwater geo-regions based on (1) local groundwater regulation, (2) access to local or imported surface water for irrigation, (3) groundwater basins and surface water watersheds. Using our defined geo-regions, we have been studying the relationship between groundwater trends in the state, groundwater regulation and access to surface water. Our results show that water levels have been declining across the state. It would appear that declines are slightly less in regulated groundwater areas. However, close inspection shows that groundwater levels are only improving in those areas that are both regulated and receiving surface water imports. This indicates that groundwater stabilization can be attributed more to induced recharge from surface water irrigation than effective groundwater regulation. This finding has significant implications across the state as there will be significant curtailment to surface water deliveries from the Colorado River across much of central arizona in coming years due to the ongoing Colorado River Drought. The Princeton hydrology team has been 1) developing novel approaches to estimate groundwater depletion and withdrawals over the US, 2) developing a hydrostratigraphic framework of the continental US (see Tijerina-Kreuzer et al Groundwater) and 3) developing an integrated hydrology model of the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). The components have been assembled to study groundwater pumping impacts on the Upper Colorado River Basin using a combination of remote sensing and modeling. A ParFlow-CLM framework model (see e.g. Jadallah et al 2023) was developed and initialized to accurately simulate the naturalized flows over the UCRB. Geography/Environmental Studies In 2023, MS advisee Jeff Immel designed his research project, conducted literature review, and conducted fieldwork. His project explores solar energy development as an alternative land use for farmland being fallowed in the San Luis Valley, Colorado due to water scarcity. Jeff conducted 25 in-depth interviews with farmers, water managers, energy developers, and land use managers in summer and fall 2023. He is now transcribing and analyzing the interviews in preparation for writing a journal article planned for the journal Energy Research & Social Science. In 2023, Dr. Adrianne Kroepsch finished data collection for a paper about the absence of groundwater metering in the American West and began writing a paper that has been provisionally accepted to a special issue of the journal Water Alternatives on the politics of water quantification. The manuscript is in progress, due Jan 15, 2024.

Publications

Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2024 Citation: Tadych, D., Ford, M., Bonnie, C., & Condon, L. E. (In Review, Journal of American Water Resources Association). Historical Patterns of Well Drilling and Groundwater Depth in Arizona Considering Groundwater Regulation and Surface Water Access.
Type: Journal Articles Status: Submitted Year Published: 2024 Citation: Colby, Bonnie and Reed-Spitzer, Zoey. Evaluating Regional Water Agreements as Examples of Institutional Success. Revise-Resubmit to: Journal of Natural Resources Policy Research.
Type: Journal Articles Status: Submitted Year Published: 2024 Citation: Pereira, Mekha, Colby, Bonnie, Condon, Laura, and Reed-Spitzer, Zoey. Statistical Investigation of Economic & Climate Signals in Groundwater Data. Revise-Resubmit to: Water Economics and Policy.
Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2022 Citation: Gallagher, LK, AJ Farley, C Chennault, S Cerasoli, S Jourdain, P OLeary, LE Condon and RM Maxwell. The ParFlow Sandtank: An interactive educational tool making invisible groundwater visible. Frontiers in Water, 22 August 2022, Sec. Water and Hydrocomplexity. https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2022.909918
Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2023 Citation: Smith, Steven M. and Jonah Allen. Market-Oriented Solutions for Groundwater Commons through Collective-Action. Environmental Research Letters. Vol 18, 045006 (April 2023) https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acc8ec
Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2023 Citation: Yang,C., Tijerina-Kreuzer, D., Tran, H., Condon, L.E. and Maxwell, R.M. A high-resolution, 3D groundwater-surface water simulation of the contiguous US: Advances in the integrated ParFlow CONUS 2.0 modeling platform, Journal of Hydrology, DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.130294,626B:130294, 2023.
Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2023 Citation: Tijerina-Kreuzer, D., Swilley, J., Tran, H., Zhang, Y., West, B., Yang#,C., Condon, L.E. and Maxwell, R.M. Continental scale hydrostratigraphy: basin-scale testing of alternative data-driven approaches, Groundwater, DOI:10.1111/gwat.13357, 18p, 2023
Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2023 Citation: Swilley, J., Tijerina-Kreuzer, D., Tran, H., Zhang, Y., Yang#,C., Condon, L.E. and Maxwell, R.M. Continental scale hydrostratigraphy: comparing geological data products to analytical solutions, Groundwater, DOI:10.1111/gwat.13354, 18p, 2023
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2023 Citation: Colby, Bonnie G. and Hannah Hansen, Improving CRB Resilience Through Incentives for Reduced Urban & Ag Use, Presented at Universities Council on Water Resources Annual Meeting, June 2023.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2023 Citation: Colby, Bonnie G, Policy-Relevant Water Resource Economics for Non-Economists, Presented at Universities Council on Water Resources Annual Meeting, June 2023.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2022 Citation: Gallagher, LK and RM Maxwell, An Educational Partnership to Engage High School Students in Water and Climate, Poster Presentation at American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting. December 2022, Chicago, IL.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2023 Citation: Gallagher, LK and RM Maxwell, Impactful engagement through games: Examples and experiences from a successful outreach collaboration, PICO Presentation at European Geophysical Union Meeting. April, 2023, Vienna, Austria.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2023 Citation: Smith, Steven, Market oriented solutions for groundwater commons through collective-action: is saving water enough? Victoria University School of Government Seminar, August 2023, Wellington, New Zealand.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2023 Citation: Tadych, D. (2023b, October 25). Planet Data Showcase [Presentation]. Data Science 4 Earth, Tucson, AZ.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2023 Citation: ? Tadych, D., & Condon, L. (2023, March 28). Exploring Groundwater Drought Response Through The Lens Of Groundwater Regulation And Surface Water Availability In Arizona [Oral Presentation]. El D�a Del Agua Y La Atm�sfera, Tucson, AZ. https://eldia-web.github.io/index.html
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2023 Citation: Tadych, D., Matthew, F., & Condon, L. (2023, June 15). Retrospective and Statistical Analyses of Agriculture and Groundwater in Arizona through the Lens of Groundwater Management and Access to Surface Water [Presentation]. 2023 UCOWR/NIWR Annual Water Resources Conference, Fort Collins, CO.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2023 Citation: Pereira, Mekha, Colby, Bonnie, Condon, Laura, and Reed-Spitzer, Zoey. Statistical Investigation of Economic & Climate Signals in Groundwater Data. Presented at Universities Council on Water Resources Annual Meeting, June 2023.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2023 Citation: Pereira, Mekha, Colby, Bonnie, Condon, Laura, and Reed-Spitzer, Zoey. Statistical Investigation of Economic & Climate Signals in Groundwater Data. Presented at El Dia Del Agua Y La Atmosfera, March 2023.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2023 Citation: Pereira, Mekha, Colby, Bonnie, Condon, Laura, and Reed-Spitzer, Zoey. Statistical Investigation of Economic & Climate Signals in Groundwater Data. Water Resources Research Center 2023 Annual Conference, March 2023.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2023 Citation: Garland Speight and Ashley Hullinger, Replicable groundwater monitoring methods for rural Arizona. March 30, 2023. University of Arizona Annual Water Conference.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2023 Citation: Cooley, Daniel, Water and Wind: Tradeoffs of Irrigation and Clean Energy. Center for Business and Economic Anlysis, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY, November 2023
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2023 Citation: Tijerina-Kreuzer, D., West, B., Yang, C., Condon, L.E., Maxwell, R.M. Performance evaluation of a continental-scale, integrated hydrologic model: adventures of a hydrologist in computer science. Copper Mountain Conference on Multi-Grid Methods; Copper Mountain, CO (2023)
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2023 Citation: Tijerina-Kreuzer, D., Ma, Y., Yang, C., West, B., Leonarduzzi, E., Condon, L.E., Maxwell, R.M. An Inquiry into Groundwater Depletion Using ParFlow-CONUS2, a Continental-Scale, Integrated Hydrologic Model. American Geophysical Union; San Francisco, CA (2023)
Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2022 Citation: Colby, Bonnie G and H Hansen, Colorado Basin Incentive-Based Urban Water Policies: Review and Evaluation, Journal of the American Water Resources Association, Vol 58: 1098-1115, December, 2022
Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2023 Citation: Seronde, Michael and Ashley Hullinger Locally Responsive Drought Preparedness Planning for Communities in Arizona, University of Arizona Cooperative Extension Publication, in press, 2023
Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2023 Citation: Speight, Garland and Ashley Hullinger Method for Analyzing Publicly Available Groundwater Data to Support of Policy and Decision Making, University of Arizona Cooperative Extension Publication, in press, 2023.
Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2024 Citation: Garland Speight and Ashley Hullinger, Wells Data Methodology Bulletin. University of Arizona Water Resources Research Center. Tucson, AZ. (in Review).
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2023 Citation: Community Drought Data Hub on ArcGIS Online: https://drought-response-planning-for-water-resilient-communities-uagis.hub.arcgis.com/edit
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2022 Citation: ? Jadallah, N. and R.M. Maxwell, From High in the Sky to Deep Underground: A Synthesis of Remote Sensing Data to Develop Estimates of Groundwater Pumping in the Upper Colorado River Basin, Presentation at American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting. December 2022, Chicago, IL.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2023 Citation: Jadallah, N. and R.M. Maxwell, From High in the Sky to Deep Underground: A Synthesis of Remote Sensing Data to Develop Estimates of Groundwater Pumping in the Upper Colorado River Basin, 2023 UCOWR/NIWR Annual Water Resources Conference, Fort Collins, CO.
Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2023 Citation: McGreal, B. and B. Colby Effects of Economic and Climatic Factors on Arid Agricultural Water Use, Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, 2023
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2022 Citation: Drought Response Planning Workshop for Small Towns. October 19, 2022. Virtual Zoom Meeting.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2023 Citation: Drought Response Planning Workshop for Town of Patagonia. March 22, 2023. Patagonia Public Library, Patagonia, AZ.

Progress 10/01/21 to 09/30/22

Outputs
Target Audience:Our target audience spans water managers, farmers, water consultants and practitioners, and K-12 educators across the upper and lower Colorado system. Our team will specifically include underrepresented groups within this audience and our project has multiple paths to engage these stakeholders. Changes/Problems:The project start was delayed due to the transfer between NSF and NIFA on the original award, and transfer of NIFA personnel from Washington D.C. to Kansas City, MO. The COVID-19 pandemic has also constrained in-person human subjects research by changing risk dynamics around the ethical treatment of research participants. PI Kroepsch adapted her research to draw from other sources (e.g., archives, policy documents) with limited Zoom interviews if needed for further context or to address data gaps. In 2022-2023 data collection from human research subjects will continue to remain secondary to other data sources, but we expect any human subjects research to proceed more normally when it is conducted (of course with continued COVID-19 safety measures, such as conducting interviews outside as much as possible). What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Economics PI Colby supported one masters student this year on this project and co-advised two students with Dr. Condon. Economics graduate students are meeting weekly with their advisor, Dr. Colby, and several times monthly with the combined Hydrology Economics project team. Graduate students are gaining experience in giving presentations, working with complex data, proficiency in new software and programming, and in collaborating on interdisciplinary research. Both economics students presented their work at the UA student research fair. PI Smith has met weekley with PhD student Cooley along with additional students working on water issues on other grants. Cooley has passed quals and looks to complete his dissertation in the next year. Hydrology PI Condon has supported two students through this project - one PhD student and one masters student The students have participated in weekly meetings with Dr. Condon, bi-weekly UA meetings for the project, as well as all-hands project meetings. Both students have also presented their work at the UA student research fair, and several regional and national academic conferences. PI Maxwell has begun support of one PhD student (starting in September 2022) who meets with Dr. Maxwell in the development of his research. Geography/Environmental Studies PI Kroepsch is mentoring her first RA on this project as of this fall (August 2022 start, project Y3-4). During the reporting period, she recruited the student (Jeff Immel, MS-Thesis, Hydrologic Science & Engineering Program) and conducted a summer reading group with him in order to prepare for his RA duties under the grant. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Economics The UA economics team met with key water management agencies to invite their collaboration, and their input on economic aspects project work in Arizona. These were introductory meetings, rather than meetings to disseminate results. Hydrology The UA hydrology team has presented their results every year at the University of Arizona student research symposium as well as the Arizona Hydrological Society annual meetings. Both of these conferences draw local water managers and stakeholders and have been a good opportunity for feedback and interaction on our work. Education The newly developed AgroSystem educational tool was used as the foundation for lessons delivered to high school students attending the Watershed Institute Clean Water Academy in August of 2021 (thewatershed.org). Students explored concepts surrounding climate change and how agricultural management decisions are vitally important to future food, energy, and water systems; they also played a gamified activity using the AgroSystem tool that allowed students to explore the economic impacts of various crop/recharge/irrigation decisions. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Economics First, PI Smith will continue to work to get the "in preparation" manuscripts submitted and through the publication process. Second, the Mines and UA economists will coordinate with PI-Kroepsch to seek out overlapping projects in the social science space. The UA economics team conducted analyses on groundwater use and on economic implications of regulatory frameworks and economic/climactic conditions in collaboration with the hydrology team. We will continue to collaborate with staff and elected officials of town and cities: Planners, Town Managers, Mayors, city and town councils, county commissioners, Flood Committees and Planning and Zoning Commissions. Rural planners, administrators and elected officials often lack funding, staff and expertise with relevant data to conduct or apply climate/water resources research and planning for their communities. Education The education team plans to develop content to support the use of the AgroSystem educational tool, as well as expand the reach of this tool. We will also collaborate with other project teams to support development of additional educational content. Hydrology The UA hydrology team plans to build on the mapping work it completed this year to conduct a more detailed physical analysis of shallow groundwater resources across the state. They will also collaborate with the Princeton team on expanding data analysis to Colorado. . They are conducting analysis of groundwater trends and regulatory frameworks across the project study area in collaboration with the economics team. The Princeton hydrology team has hired a PhD student (Jadallah) who attended the kickoff meeting and will start in Fall 2021. The Princeton team will explore connecting the ML center pivot identification workflow to a hydrologic model of the Upper Colorado River Basin. Social Sciences PI Kroepsch is currently writing the manuscript described above, and looks forward to circulating a finished draft for friendly review among the research team during this year. RA Jeff Immel is beginning his work on the project this month, and will build from research conducted by Colorado School of Mines collaborators Steven Smith (PI) and Daniel Cooley (RA/PhD).

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Our leadership team consists of PI Maxwell (hydrology), coPI Colby (economics), coPI Condon (hydrology), Senior Personnel (SP) Gallagher (education), coPI Kroepsch (geography/environmental studies), and coPI Smith (economics). The entire leadership team participated in the first all-hands meeting in June 2021. Economics Our economics team consists of economists from the Colorado School of Mines and the University of Arizona. A machine learning (ML) process has been developed and implemented by the Mines economics team to identify center pivot irrigation technology from satellite imagery, resulting in two dissertation thesis chapters (Daniel Cooley), two publications (out or forthcoming), and another manuscript under review. This has immediately aided research considering how that technology interacts with wind power development across the Great Plains, and has been used to consider irrigation uptake in more humid regions (Illinois). PI Smith has secured access to USDA Census Microdata and performed analysis on how farmers adjust to groundwater fees to complement a hedonic analysis of the net benefits to farmers of management. The UA economics team has been developing statistical models analyzing water delivery, groundwater pumping, crop mix planted, climate and crop-related economic data for the Phoenix and Pinal Active Management Areas in Arizona. These data are used in statistical models examining relationships between economic, climate and water use variables. Preliminary findings are reported in several draft papers (see Papers). Education During the current reporting period the education team has leveraged a previously developed education tool called the ParFlow Sandtank (sandtank.hydroframe.org), an interactive computer simulation of a physical aquifer model that allows users to explore various hydrogeological scenarios by adjusting inputs to the system and visualizing outputs in real time. In Spring of 2021, work was completed that added features to the default model including irrigation efficiency, water use efficiency, and recharge input capabilities. Combined with new output additions including crop yield, revenue, and total water storage, this application serves as a powerful tool to educate K-12 and undergraduate students about a myriad of FEW-related topics. This new version of the ParFlow Sandtank is called the AgroSystem, and was used to teach high school students attending the Clean Water Academy week at the Watershed Institute in August 2021 (thewatershed.org). Hydrology The hydrology team consists of hydrologists from the University of Arizona and Princeton University. The UA hydrology team has assembled groundwater and land use data for the state of Arizona. They have assembled a GIS framework include all of the well permits, water level observations and pumping data across the state, as well as the various groundwater and surface water regulatory frameworks. Using this framework, the UA team has evaluated historical trends in agricultural production, groundwater well drilling and groundwater levels in relation to groundwater regulation and surface water availability across the state. The Princeton hydrology team is developing groundwater pumping datasets for the UCRB. These datasets come from satellite remote sensing and are a synthesis of products, machine learning approaches and hydrologic model simulations. Geography/Environmental Studies PI Kroepsch collected data for a journal article that explores why groundwater metering is so limited in the American West in contrast to the measurement of surface water diversions and/or other subsurface resources (e.g., oil). Data collection has included synthesis of historical literature, archival work, collection and evaluation of state/local groundwater metering rules, and interviews with groundwater managers. Manuscript is in preparation. Target journal is a hydrology journal rather than a social science journal in order to invite more interdisciplinary thought about the history and politics of data absences, as well as their consequences for scientific inquiry, resource management, and resource users.

Publications

Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2022 Citation: Colby, Bonnie and Hannah Hansen, Incentive-Based Policies for Urban Water Conservation and Supply Reliability in Colorado River Basin, Journal of the American Water Resources Association, in press, 2022
Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2022 Citation: Pereira, M., B. Colby and L. Condon. Investigating[CBG(1] Economic and Climate Signals in Groundwater Data, Manuscript under review. July, 2022
Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2021 Citation: Smith, Steven M. and Eric C. Edwards. Water Storage and Agricultural Resilience to Drought: Historical Evidence of the Capacity and Institutional Limits in the United States Environmental Research Letters. Vol. 16, No. 12 (December 2021) https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac358aUnder Review at Environmental Research Letters
Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2021 Citation: Cooley, Daniel, Reed M. Maxwell, and Steven M. Smith. Center Pivot Irrigation Systems and Where to Find Them: A Deep Learning Approach Frontiers in Water. Vol. 3 (December 2021) https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2021.786016
Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2022 Citation: Steven M. Smith. Dynamics of the Legal Environment and the Development of Communal Irrigation Systems. International Journal of the Commons. Vol. 16, No. 1 (March 2022) http://doi.org/10.5334/ijc.1112
Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2022 Citation: Daniel Cooley and Steven M. Smith. Center Pivot Irrigation Systems as a Form of Drought Risk Mitigation in Humid Regions. fortchoming in American Agriculture, Water Resources, and Climate Change. Edited by Gary D. Libecap and Ariel Dinar. University of Chicago Press. Previously circulated as NBER Working Paper Series No. 30093 (May 2022). http://www.nber.org/papers/w30093
Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2022 Citation: Cooley, Daniel and Steven M. Smith. Water and Wind: Tradeoffs of Irrigation and Clean Energy Revisions Requested at the Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists
Type: Journal Articles Status: Other Year Published: 2022 Citation: Gebben, Alex and Steven M. Smith. Is Saving Water Enough? The Economic Sustainability of a Groundwater Fee in preparation
Type: Journal Articles Status: Other Year Published: 2022 Citation: Kroepsch, Adrianne. An Inscrutable Circulation: Why Groundwater Pumping Goes Unmeasured in the American West in preparation
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2021 Citation: Steven Smith, Water and Wind: Tradeoffs of Irrigation and Clean Energy at University of Nevada, Reno Joint Economic-hydrology seminar, November 2021
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2021 Citation: Steven Smith, Is Saving Water Enough? The Economic Sustainability of a Groundwater Fee given at AGU Annual Conference, New Orleans, December 2021
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2022 Citation: Steven Smith, Water and Wind: Tradeoffs of Irrigation and Clean Energy at INFEWS Workshop, Princeton, NJ (virtually), February 2022
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2022 Citation: Steven Smith, Water and Wind: Tradeoffs of Irrigation and Clean Energy at Montana State University Economic Seminar Series, April 2022
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2022 Citation: Steven Smith, Center Pivot Irrigation Systems as a Form of Drought Risk Mitigation in Humid Regions at NBER/USDA Economic Perspectives on Water Resources, Climate Change, and Agricultural Sustainability Conference, Virtual, May 2022
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2022 Citation: Steven Smith, Center Pivot Irrigation Systems as a Form of Drought Risk Mitigation in Humid Regions at Frontiers in Hydrology (AGU) in Puerto Rico, June 2022
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2022 Citation: Steven Smith, Is Saving Water Enough? The Economic Sustainability of a Groundwater Fee given at PERC Workshop on Priming the Pump for Groundwater Markets, Bozeman, MT, September 2022
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2022 Citation: Adrianne Kroepsch, An Inscrutable Circulation: Groundwater Unknowns at the Nexus of Hydro-Social and Socio-Hydrological Inquiry, Association of American Geographers Annual Meeting, Virtual, March 2022.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2022 Citation: Daniel Cooley, Center Pivot Irrigation Systems as a Form of Drought Risk Mitigation in Humid Regions at Midwest Economic Association Annual Meeting, Minneapolis, MN, 2022
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2022 Citation: Daniel Cooley, Center Pivot Irrigation Systems as a Form of Drought Risk Mitigation in Humid Regions at the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists Annual Meeting, Miami, FL, 2022
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2021 Citation: Ford, Matthew, et al. Trends in Alfalfa Growth and Groundwater Levels in Arizona. Arizona Hydrological Society Symposium, Phoenix, AZ, September 2021
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2022 Citation: Ford, Matthew, and Laura E. Condon. Mapping Changing Cropping Patterns in Arizona and Their Connection to Groundwater Regulations and Water Availability. El D�a del Agua y la Atm�sfera, Tucson, AZ, March, 2022.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2022 Citation: Pereira, Mekha, et al. Statistical Relationships Between Groundwater, Climatic, and Economic Factors in Rural Arizona. El D�a del Agua y la Atm�sfera, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ., March, 2022.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2021 Citation: Tadych, Danielle, et al. Exploring the Impact of Groundwater Regulation and Surface Water Availability on Groundwater Levels and Spatial Patterns in Arizona. Arizona Hydrological Society Annual Symposium, Phoenix, AZ, September, 2021.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2022 Citation: Tadych, Danielle and Condon Laura E. Exploring Connections between Groundwater Storage and Management Settings Using Observations from Groundwater Wells and GRACE Data in Arizona. El D�a del Agua y la Atm�sfera, Tucson, March 2022.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2021 Citation: Exploring the Impact Of Groundwater Regulation and Surface Water Availability on Groundwater Levels and Pumping in Arizona. American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, New Orleans, LA. December 2021.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2022 Citation: Exploring the Impact Of Groundwater Regulation and Surface Water Availability on Groundwater Well and Satellite Measurements during Severe Drought in Arizona. Arizona Hydrological Society Fall Symposium. Arizona, Tucson, AZ, September, 2022
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2021 Citation: Ford, M., L.E. Condon, D. Tadych, D., B. Colby, and B. McGreal, The Impact of government dairy subsidies on groundwater levels in Arizona, Poster, El Dia del Agua y del Atmosfera, Tucson, AZ, March 2021.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2021 Citation: Hansen, H. and B. Colby, Incentives for Urban Water Conservation in the Colorado River Basin, El Dia del Agua y del Atmosfera, Tucson, AZ, March 2021.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2021 Citation: McGreal, B. Effects of Economic and Climatic Factors on Arizona Irrigators Water Use Decisions University of Arizona, El Dia del Agua y la Atmosfera, March 2021.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2021 Citation: McGreal, B. Arizona Groundwater Management - Past, Present and Future University of Arizona, Water Resources Research Center Brown Bag Seminar, March 2021.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2021 Citation: Tadych, D. and L.E. Condon, Understanding the connections between Human Systems and Groundwater Wells in Arizona, Poster, El Dia del Agua y del Atmosfera, Tucson, AZ, March 2021.

Progress 10/01/20 to 09/30/21

Outputs
Target Audience:Our target audience spans water managers, farmers, water consultants and practitioners, and K-12 educators across the upper and lower Colorado system. Our team will specifically include underrepresented groups within this audience and our project has multiple paths to engage these stakeholders. Changes/Problems:The project start was delayed due to the transfer between NSF and NIFA on the original award, and transfer of NIFA personnel from Washington D.C. to Kansas City, MO. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Economics PI Colby supported two students related to this project, mostly with funding from other sources due to problems with project funds reaching UA. Economics graduate students are meeting weekly with their advisor, Dr. Colby, and several times monthly with the combined Hydrology Economics project team. Graduate students are gaining experience in giving presentations, working with complex data, proficiency in new software and programming, and in collaborating on interdisciplinary research. Both economics students presented their work at the UA student research fair. Hydrology PI Condon has supported two students through this project - one PhD student and one undergraduate. The students have participated in bi-weekly UA meetings for the project, as well as all-hands project meetings. Both students have also presented their work at the UA student research fair. Social Sciences PI Kroepsch trained two graduate students in the Natural Resources & Energy Policy Program not funded by the project but taking an independent study in Summer 2021. They helped conduct a literature review on groundwater governance trends in the Colorado River Basin to refine project goals for 2021. Students were trained in literature collection, synthesis, interdisciplinary approaches to groundwater research, as well as NSF-style research proposal writing. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Economics The UA economics team met with key water management agencies to invite their collaboration, and their input on economic aspects project work in Arizona. These were introductory meetings, rather than meetings to disseminate results. Education The newly developed AgroSystem educational tool was used as the foundation for lessons delivered to high school students attending the Watershed Institute Clean Water Academy in August of 2021 (thewatershed.org). Students explored concepts surrounding climate change and how agricultural management decisions are vitally important to future food, energy, and water systems; they also played a gamified activity using the AgroSystem tool that allowed students to explore the economic impacts of various crop/recharge/irrigation decisions. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Economics First, PI Smith will work to get"in preparation" manuscripts submitted and through the publication process. Second, he will pursue writing a manuscript about the findings in irrigation uptake in Illinois. Third, he will coordinate with the social scientists on the project to collect needed data, focusing our portion on the Western Slope of Colorado and the Upper Basin of the Colorado more generally. The UA economics team will be conducting analyses on groundwater use and on economic implications of regulatory frameworks and economic/climactic conditions in collaboration with the hydrology team. Education The education team plans to develop content to support the use of the AgroSystem educational tool, as well as expand the reach of this tool. We will also collaborate with other project teams to support development of additional educational content. Hydrology The UA hydrology team is planning on completing Arizona data assembly this year and expanding to cover Colorado. They will be conducting initial analysis on groundwater trends and regulatory frameworks across the project study area in collaboration with the economics team. The Princeton hydrology team has hired a PhD student (Jadallah) who attended the kickoff meeting and will start in Fall 2021. The Princeton team will explore connecting the ML center pivot identification workflow to a hydrologic model of the Upper Colorado River Basin. Social Sciences PI Kroepsch is planning to complete fieldwork preparation and begin conducting fieldwork. She is planning to recruit graduate student for Y3-4 of project.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Our leadership team consists of PI Maxwell (hydrology), coPI Colby (economics), coPI Condon (hydrology), Senior Personnel (SP) Gallagher (education), coPI Kroepsch (social sciences), and coPI Smith (economics). The entire leadership team participated in the first all-hands meeting in June 2021. Economics Our economics team consists of economists from the Colorado School of Mines and the University of Arizona. A machine learning (ML) process has been developed and implemented by the Mines economics team to identify center pivot irrigation technology from satellite imagery. This has immediately aided research considering how that technology interacts with wind power development across the Great Plains. It has been further developed to consider irrigation uptake in more humid regions (Illinois) as part of Daniel Cooley's PhD. Qualifying II exam. PI Smith has secured access to USDA Census Microdata to be used to analyze farm-level changes of input-output mix in response to groundwater management fees to better understand adaptation more fully. Finally, the Mines economics team has cataloged relevant data available within Colorado to begin coordination with the Arizona research team. The UA economics team has assembled water delivery, groundwater pumping, irrigated cropland, climate and crop-related economic data for the Phoenix and Pinal Active Management Areas in Arizona. These datasets are currently being used in statistical models examining relationships between economic, climate and water use variables. Education During the current reporting period the education team has leveraged a previously developed education tool called the ParFlow Sandtank (sandtank.hydroframe.org), an interactive computer simulation of a physical aquifer model that allows users to explore various hydrogeological scenarios by adjusting inputs to the system and visualizing outputs in real time. In Spring of 2021, work was completed that added features to the default model including irrigation efficiency, water use efficiency, and recharge input capabilities. Combined with new output additions including crop yield, revenue, and total water storage, this application serves as a powerful tool to educate K-12 and undergraduate students about a myriad of FEW-related topics. This new version of the ParFlow Sandtank is called the AgroSystem, and was used to teach high school students attending the Clean Water Academy week at the Watershed Institute in August 2021 (thewatershed.org). Hydrology The hydrology team consists of hydrologists from the University of Arizona and Princeton University. The UA hydrology team is working to assemble groundwater and land use data for the state of Arizona. They have been building a GIS framework to include all of the well permits, water level observations and pumping data across the state, as well as the various groundwater and surface water regulatory frameworks. These datasets will be the foundation for our model validation and historical analysis. Social Sciences PI Kroepsch conducted a literature review on current groundwater governance trends in project area in Summer 2021 with two graduate students (further information listed below). The literature review is helping to refine project plans given time elapsed since drafting of proposal and current pandemic-related limitations to human subjects research (proposal was written in 2018, funding arrived in late 2020).

Publications

Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2021 Citation: Smith, Steven M. and Eric C. Edwards. Water Storage and Agricultural Resilience to Drought: Historical Evidence of the Capacity and Institutional Limits in the United States Under Review at Environmental Research Letters.