Progress 09/15/20 to 09/14/23
Outputs
Target Audience:This project delivered science-based knowledge generated from the project through our online communication platform. The project website hosted webinars, podcasts, executive summary of our May 2022 virtual conference, fact sheets, and journal articles, making project findings available to all stakeholders include farmers and businesses and government agencies that serve farmers, supply chain businesses, and food retailers and food service providers, including schools, as well as individual consumers. In addition to publications, our work was presented to USDA scientists and academic researchers at the Applied and Agricultural Economics Association meetings; Food Distribution and Research Society meetings, National Agricultural Marketing Summit; Southern Region American Society for Horticultural Science annual conference; National Agricultural Communications Symposium; and Agriculture, Food, and Human Values Society meetings. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Several undergraduate and graduate students and professionals continued their involvement in the project with their respective supervisors during the extended project period. At the University of Minnesota, under the supervision of PD Peterson, Matthew Hockert (M.S. student in Applied Economics) continued to work on the regional foodshed analysis as part of his thesis project, and Madison Bozich (PhD student in Economics) continued to work on the equilibrium displacement modeling. At the University of Florida, Co-PD Court supervised Bijeta Bijen Saha and Eyrika Orlando (graduate students in Food and Resource Economics) and worked on journal article writing. Co-PD Lauri Baker supervised Cheng-Xian Yang (PhD in Agricultural Communication) in analyzing the survey data from the consumer survey and writing final journal articles from the data. Michaela Kandzer (a recent graduate and Communications Specialist) and Anissa Zagonel (Research Coordinator) continued their work on consumer survey analysis and communication platform development. Aly Morrison and Phillip Stokes at the UF/IFAS Center for Public Issues and Engagement led the development of the Extension training course based on the project findings, under the supervision of Co-PDs Lauri Baker and Cheryl Boyer. At the University of Wisconsin, James Teal (PhD student in Agricultural and Applied Economics) co-authored the research manuscript about firm diversification and resilience to labor shocks with Co-PD Andrew Stevens. Under the supervision of Co-PD Lindsey Day Farnsworth, Noah Bloedorn (MS student Urban and Regional Planning) drafted a manuscript that examines the role of public programming and services in food system businesses' response to the pandemic. At Amherst College, where Co-PD Li Zhang is now affiliated with, Atheek Azmi and another undergraduate student conducted analyses of consumer and supply chain survey data disaggregating the impacts across different demographic groups, under the supervision of Co-PDs Li Zhang and Gustavo Oliveira (now at Clark University). How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Research findings were communicated to stakeholders during the reporting period through the project webpage (https://ruralengagement.org/lessons-from-covid-19-toolkit/) and online, self-directed course (https://rise.articulate.com/share/JG4HgDaEO236zOUJXwc9sFJ25tLSBXg9#/), professional meetings and conferences, professional journals, and extension-ready publications. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?
Nothing Reported
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
The COVID-19 pandemic exposed structural vulnerability of our supply chains and we continue to experience supply chain disruptions much more prevalently through 2022. The overall goal of this project is to generate science-based knowledge and resources to enhance preparedness of the U.S. food supply chains for future disruptions. In the extended third year of the project, the project team members continued to meet on a quarterly basis to update each other on ongoing work. Obj 1. Assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on farm and food supply chain operations in the study regions, both in the immediate and longer terms, by understanding consumers' behavioral response regionally and across the U.S. Three papers from the supply chain survey analysis were published in peer-reviewed journals. The PLOS One paper synthesized the magnitude of the revenue shocks reported by the supply chain business, highlighting the differences across the supply chain segments and regional differences. The AJAE paper showed firms that were diversified across supply chain segments (vertical diversification) increased their exposure to negative shocks, while firms that are diversified within the segment (horizontal diversification) fared better. A research report was completed and presented, showing the relationship between adaptation of firms and their tendency to innovate according to the diffusion of innovation theory. Another paper is being developed examining the differences in adaptation and access to resources during the pandemic by the demographics of firm ownership. There were several presentations made on findings from the consumer survey analysis, including how the adoption of local food purchases and online grocery shopping can be explained by the diffusion of innovation theory. The manuscript is being developed on examining the demand for local foods and online grocery shopping practices in response to varying levels of public health risks. Another set of analysis is under way examining the experiences of the pandemic in terms of labor and leisure (and food-related practices) by demographics. Obj 2. Understand capacities and structural vulnerabilities of regional food systems to support their population needs. Regional food analysis has made significant progress relating the Regional Supply Coefficients and Regional Purchase Coefficients (from the IMPLAN dataset) to county-level food supply chain segment size. Preliminary results were presented at the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association annual meeting and are being finalized as a Master's thesis. The findings provide empirical evidence where much of the food is transported widely across regions at the upstream supply chain segments of agricultural production with agglomeration effects, and then becoming much more locally reliant at the distribution segment and downstream. The efforts to quantify the pandemic impact on regional food systems using Equilibrium Displacement Modeling of the dairy sector has also made significant progress. The model is specified with the farm, processing, and retail levels for a region and the rest of the US. The scenarios will be computed for the Minnesota-Wisconsin region and California, respectively. Obj 3. Co-develop resources and strategies for current and future disruptions with supply chain stakeholders and experts The project website (https://ruralengagement.org/lessons-from-covid-19-toolkit/) and added project content. As of December 2023, the webpage has had 2,493 unique views. There are 5 fact sheets with 365+ views, 4 pod-casts with 570+ streams, and recorded webinars with 860+ post-webinar streams. The main manuscript from the focus group analysis is in development. We categorized how businesses adapted in response to the pandemic into 5 larger sets of strategies and discussed their implications for enhancing food system resilience. The first large bucket can be called flexibilization, including many business-level adaptations, such as changing the hours of operation, changing inventory management practices, and changing marketing strategies. As part of flexibilization was specialization. Pandemic allowed businesses to get rid of products with low sales making consumers adjust to not having everything all the time. Another set of strategies was diversification. In terms of the supply chain, businesses "increased the number of suppliers or sales channels." There were more businesses that indicated they simply switched ("sourced from different suppliers" or "sold through different channels"), but it was much easier to pivot if multiple channels both upstream and downstream existed. Geography was important in terms of diversification. Participants discussed how you should be connected to businesses that were in different geographic locations as you, or else, you'll be competing with your neighbors. Networking and information sharing included ways to increase connections with other businesses, consumers, community organizations, and government agencies. Most businesses are only familiar with how the supply chain worked within their own context (where in the supply chain, scale) and were very interested in learning how the food system works beyond their own realm and expressed appreciation for being part of the focus group. Lastly, through regionalization, businesses may change input suppliers and marketing channels in ways that reduce the length of supply chains. Combined with the insight from diversification as a strategy, geographic diversification is important in the context of regionalization. One of the key takeaways is that for our overall (national, mainstream) food system to be resilient (not be disrupted in the face of crises), we need regional food systems to be interconnected, instead of becoming compartmentalized. Obj 4. Develop and offer training programs for university cooperative extension personnel and other decision makers to strengthen support and understanding for local and regional supply chain participants at times of disruptions The extension team developed and launched an online course titled "Reimagining Resilient Agri-food Supply Chains" in April 2023 from based on the virtual conference in May 2022. The content of this course aimed to help participants understand the impact of disasters on agri-food supply chain operations, identify the capacities and structural vulnerabilities of regional food systems, be able to support populations affected by supply chain delays, and gain access to resources and strategies for addressing current and future disruptions. The course had a total of 117 registrants, with a total of 84% passing rate amongst participants.
Publications
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Peterson, H.H., G. DiGiacomo, M. Miller, G. Oliveira, A.W. Stevens, L. Zhang, L.M. Baker, J.J. Nowak III, E. Orlando, and B. Bijen Saha. Impacts of COVID-19 on US agri-food supply chain businesses: Regional survey results. PLOS One 18, 2 (2023): e0281930. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0281930
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Hockert, M., and H.H. Peterson. A Spatial Approach to Agri-Food Supply Chain Structure. Paper presented at the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association Annual Meetings, Washington, DC, July 23-25, 2023.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2022
Citation:
Digiacomo, G., L.M. Baker, C.-X. Yang, and H.H. Peterson. Innovation among Businesses across the Agri-food Supply Chain during COVID-19. Food Distribution Research Society Annual Meeting, Pensacola, FL, October 24, 2022.
- Type:
Theses/Dissertations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2021
Citation:
Covarrubias, Joelle. "Understanding the Diffusion of Innovations and Regional Food Supply Chains from a Producer and Supply Chain Perspectives." Undergraduate Research Thesis, University of Florida.
- Type:
Theses/Dissertations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2022
Citation:
Ogelsby, Meredith. "Feeding families and giving graciously: Understanding perceptions of food insecure household and Americans' volunteer behaviors during COVID-19." MS Thesis, University of Florida.
- Type:
Theses/Dissertations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2022
Citation:
Henson, Annabel. "Understanding the communication behind the supply chain during COVID-19 by consumer choice of grocery stores vs. CSA's and farmer's markets." Undergraduate Research Thesis, University of Thesis.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Baker, LM., Balre, T., Vassilaros, V. "A Distinctive Digital Direction: Digital Marketing Case Studies with Horticultural Businesses." Presented at Southern American Society of Horticultural Sciences, Oklahoma City, OK, Feb 3-5, 2023.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Joshi, A., Morrison, A., Baker, L., McLeod-Morin, A., Stokes, P., Honeycutt, S., Anderson, S., Lindsey, A., Yang, C., Zagonel, A., & Telg, R. (2023). A deep divide: Differences in rural and urban Americans' trust of scientists. Poster presentation at National Agricultural Communications Symposium, February 2023, Oklahoma City, U.S.
- Type:
Other
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
American Society for Horticultural Science (ASHS) Outstanding Education Materials Award. Blare, T., Ballen, F., Contreras, V., Baker, L.M., Outerbridge, D., Goodiel, Y., Wasieklewski, J., Vassilaros, V., Ryals, J., Kandzer, M., Morrison, A., Boyer, C., Peterson, H. (2023). How to Market in a Digital Era Marketing Manual. Retrieved from: https://ruralengagement.org/digital-marketing-toolkit/
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Joshi, A., Morrison, A., Baker, L. M., McLeod-Morin, A., Stokes, P., Honeycutt, S., Anderson, S., Lindsey, A., Yang, C. X., Zagonel, A., & Telg, R. W. (2023). Capturing Credible Communication: Using Focus Groups with Perception Analyzer Dials to Understand the Credibility of Different Video Types [Poster presentation]. 2023 National Agricultural Communications Symposium, Oklahoma City, OK, Feb 5-6, 2023.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Yang, C., Baker, L., Zagonel, A., & Peterson, H. (2023). Innovation in isolation: An exploratory study on the diffusion of local foods purchasing and innovative shopping methods during COVID-19. Paper presented at National Agricultural Communications Symposium, February 2023, Oklahoma City, U.S.
- Type:
Other
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Joshi, A., Morrison, A., Baker, L. M., McLeod-Morin, A., Stokes, P., Honeycutt, S., Anderson, S., Lindsey, A., Yang, C., Zagonel, A., & Telg, R. W. (2023). Capturing Credible Communication: Using Focus Groups with Perception Analyzer Dials to Understand the Credibility of Different Video Types [Invited oral presentation]. Research, Education, and Economics (REE) Division at National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA), USDA.
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Progress 09/15/21 to 09/14/22
Outputs
Target Audience:This project delivers science-based knowledge we generate through our online communication platform to all stakeholders of our national food system, including the public as consumers of food. With our project website up and running, our work was available to all stakeholders include farmers and businesses and government agencies that serve farmers, supply chain businesses, and food retailers and food service providers, including schools, as well as individual consumers. The virtual conference was attended by stakeholders including university extension and other professionals with a working relationship with business operators in food and agricultural sectors nationwide. Our work was presented to USDA scientists and academic researchers. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Several graduate students and professionals continued their involvement in the project. While they meet with the supervisors more frequently, they have been attending the monthly project team meetings. Some contributed to the project as part of their degree-requirement research activities. At the University of Minnesota, under the supervision of PD Peterson, Matthew Hockert (M.S. student in Applied Economics) has made progress on the regional foodshed analysis as part of his thesis project using the IMPLAN data, made available by the Co-PD Court. Madison Brozich (PhD student in Economics) joined the project to work on the equilibrium displacement modeling. Katie Myrhe (M.S. in supply chain management) contributed critically to the focus group activity. At the University of Florida, Co-PD Court supervised Bijeta Bijen Saha and Eyrika Orlando (graduate students in Food and Resource Economics) and post-doctoral researcher Xiaohui Qiao. Under the supervision of Co-PD Lauri Baker, Meredith Oglesby (M.S. student in Agricultural Communications) completed her thesis project on the consumer survey analysis and presented an award-winning poster; Cheng-Xian Yang (PhD in Agricultural Communication) has been helping analyzing the survey data. Michaela Kandzer (a recent graduate and Communications Specialist) and Anissa Zagonel (Research Coordinator) continued their work on consumer survey analysis and communication platform development. Aly Morrison and Phillip Stokes at the UF/IFAS Center for Public Issues and Engagement began preparing the Extension training course based on the project findings, under the supervision of Co-PDs Lauri Baker and Cheryl Boyer. At the University of Wisconsin, James Teal (PhD student in Agricultural and Applied Economics) co-authored the research manuscript about firm diversification and resilience to labor shocks with Co-PD Andrew Stevens. Under the supervision of Co-PD Lindsey Day Farnsworth, Noah Bloedorn (MS student Urban and Regional Planning) assisted with transcription and coding of transcription in analyzing the focus group data. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Research findings were communicated to stakeholders during the reporting period through the project website (https://ruralengagement.org/lessons-from-covid-19-toolkit/), webinars (11/18/21, 4/17/22), a virtual conference (5/5/22), presentations at the PD meeting, professional meetings and conferences, professional journals, and extension-ready publications. The project team met with the advisory committee members in March and in September. For the meeting in March, we set up two separate meetings for the practitioners and academic researchers to tailor the conversations. The September meeting was scheduled immediately following the virtual organized symposium of our project team at part of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association Annual Meeting. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?During the one-year extension, the following activities are planned to complete the project: Regional foodshed analysis: Matthew Hockert's thesis will be completed. Equilibrium displacement modelling: Preliminary analysis will be presented at a conference and a final manuscript will be submitted to a peer-reviewed journal for publication. Focus groups: Two manuscripts will further be developed. At least one of them will be completed and submitted to a peer-reviewed journal for publication. The train-the-trainer online course will be offered in the spring of 2023. Study findings will be presented at professional associations. Additional manuscripts will be developed and completed for peer-reviewed publications. Additional fact sheets will be developed as findings from the project are finalized.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
The COVID-19 pandemic exposed structural vulnerability of our supply chains and we continue to experience supply chain disruptions much more prevalently through 2022. The overall goal of this project is to generate science-based knowledge and resources to enhance preparedness of the U.S. food supply chains for future disruptions. Obj 1. Assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on farm and food supply chain operations in the study regions, both in the immediate and longer terms, by understanding consumers' behavioral response regionally and across the U.S. In the second year of the project, the two survey teams (Peterson, Baker, Court, Digiacomo, Oliveira, Zhang) continued with analysis of responses collected from the supply chain survey and the consumer survey fielded in early and mid 2021. We submitted our general findings from the supply chain survey for a peer-reviewed journal publication. Another manuscript examining the relationship between labor-related challenges experienced during the pandemic and whether the firm was diversified within the same segment and/or across supply chain segment was completed. A graduate student poster, based on her thesis analyzing the food security experiences among the consumer survey respondent, was recognized at the annual conference of the Association for Communication Excellence. Obj 2. Understand capacities and structural vulnerabilities of regional food systems to support their population needs. Regional food analysis team (Peterson, Court, and a graduate student) identified the Regional Supply Coefficients and Regional Purchase Coefficients reported in the IMPLAN data as the measures of interest in representing geographical reliance on locally sourced commodities. The food flow analysis team (including Miller, Stevens, Court, and Peterson) ended the collaboration with the Konar Lab at UIUC in December. The UIUC food flow estimates demonstrate regional differences in scales of the industry. Particularly comparing California and Minnesota-Wisconsin regions, the dairy supply chains in the Los Angeles region are considerably more important to the national dairy flow. Should there be disruptions in Imperial, Kern, Riverside or San Bernadino counties, for example, it would create supply chain whiplash throughout the dairy sector. Peterson began working on the Equilibrium Displacement Modeling to with a graduate student. The model of an agricultural sector is specified encompassing the farm, processing, and retail levels with an additional distinction made between a designated region and the rest of the US. For our analysis, dairy was chosen as the commodity of interest, which are major and distinct among our study regions. In particular, shocks in two of the largest production regions, the Minnesota-Wisconsin region and California, are examined separately in conjunction with the nation as a whole. Obj 3. Co-develop resources and strategies for current and future disruptions with supply chain stakeholders and experts The communication and online resources team (Baker, Boyer, Lindsey, students) have activated the project website (https://ruralengagement.org/lessons-from-covid-19-toolkit/) and added project content. As of December 2022, the website has had 1,434 unique views. There are 5 fact sheets with 300+ views, 4 pod-casts with 3,500+ streams, and recorded webinars. The 4 scheduled webinars were completed with 1,787 registrants from domestic and international audiences, including academic researchers, Extension educators, and industry practitioners. The focus group team (Peterson, Digiacomo, Day Farnsworth, Oliveira, Zhang, and two graduate students) designed and implemented focus groups with supply chain business owners. Participants were recruited based on the interest expressed among the supply chain survey participants and by reaching out to industry and community partners. Eleven focus groups took place online from February to April 2022 involving 49 participants from the study regions, representing all supply chain segments. Each session was 90 minutes moderated by a team member. The questions were largely two-fold: reflections of their COVID experiences in terms their business size and positioning, and forward-looking solutions that can be pursued individually and collectively. All sessions were recorded, transcribed, and preliminarily analyzed. Obj 4. Develop and offer training programs for university cooperative extension personnel and other decision makers to strengthen support and understanding for local and regional supply chain participants at times of disruptions The extension team (Boyer, Baker, Lindsey, Day Farnsworth) have led organizing the project teams' webinars and delivered a virtual conference on May 5 with 98 registrants. The conference was 5.25 hour long, divided into 3 sessions (understand the problem, learn about solutions, and facilitate change), where each session consisted of an hour presentation and a workshop activity. They are currently developing online learning course materials to be offered during the one year extension period.
Publications
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2022
Citation:
Oglesby, M., Baker, L., Campbell, C., Peterson, H., Lindsey, A., Telg, R., (2022). "Giving Graciously: Determining Motivations and Barriers for Volunteering and Giving During COVID-19." Poster presented at National Agricultural Communications Symposium, New Orleans, LA, Feb 13-14, 2022.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2022
Citation:
Zagonel, A., Baker, L., Peterson, H. (2022). "How can I get my food?: Survey research to understand consumers barriers to acquiring food in the COVID-19 pandemic." Poster presented at National Agricultural Communications Symposium, New Orleans, LA, Feb 13-14, 2022.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2022
Citation:
Baker, L.M., H.H. Peterson, and C.R. Boyer. 2022. Changes in consumer purchasing behavior of fresh fruits and vegetables during the COVID-19 pandemic (abstr). HortScience 57(9):S242-243. https://doi.org/10.21273/HORTSCI.57.9S.S1
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Stevens, A. W., & J. Teal. Diversification and Resilience of Firms in the Agri-Food Supply Chain. American Journal of Agricultural Economics.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Christa D. Court, David Outerbridge, Lauri Baker, Laura Birou, Catherine Campbell, Gigi DiGiacomo, Sebastian Galindo, John Lai, Alexandre Magnier, Michelle Miller, Gustavo de L.T. Oliveira, Eyrika Orlando, Hikaru Hanawa Peterson, Xiaohui Qiao, Fritz Roka, Andrew Ropicki, Bijeta Bijen Saha, Andrew W. Stevens, and Li Zhang. "Pandemic Produce: Impacts of COVID-19 on Floridas fruit and vegetable industries." Journal of Agricultural and Food Industrial Organization.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2022
Citation:
Stevens, A., Peterson, H., Court, C. 2022. "What COVID-19 has Taught Us about Regional Food Supply Chains" Organized Symposium at 2022 Agricultural and Applied Economics Association Annual Meeting, virtual session, September 26, 2022.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2022
Citation:
Ogelsby, M., L.M. Baker, H. Peterson, C. Campbell, A. Lindsey, and R. Teig. Feeding Families: Understanding Challenges and Perceptions of Food Insecure Households during COVID-19. Outstanding Peoples Choice Poster at the ACE (Association for Communication Excellence) Annual Conference, Kansas City, MO, June 12-14, 2022.
- Type:
Websites
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2021
Citation:
Shaw Kandzer, M., L. Baker, C. Boyer, H. Peterson, A. Morrison, and Liquid Creative. Lessons from COVID-19 Toolkit. Center for Rural Enterprise Engagement Website. https://ruralengagement.org/lessons-from-covid-19-toolkit/.
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2022
Citation:
Lessons from COVID-19: Positioning Regional Food Supply Chains for Future Pandemics, Natural Disasters and Human-made Crises. Online workshop, May 5, 2022.
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Progress 09/15/20 to 09/14/21
Outputs
Target Audience:The target audience(s) for this project include businesses throughout the food supply chain (farmers, packers, processors, wholesalers, retailer grocers, restaurants) and individual consumers as well as the governmental, university extension, and other non-governmental and professional practitioners, who work with them. During the first 12 months of the project, research objectives and preliminary findings have been shared with the target audiences locally, regionally, nationally, and internationally. Outreach has been conducted virtually via two webinars, six academic conferences, three USDA events, two industry meetings, and one public television installment. The project webinars have been particularly well attended with a combined total of over 300 registrants, including several from an international audience, which was beyond the project's initial intent. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Several graduate students and a few undergraduate students were involved in the project as part of their degree-required research activities. While they meet with the supervisors more frequently, they have been attending the monthly project team meetings. At the University of Minnesota, under the supervision of PD Peterson, Joseph Nowak III (PhD candidate in Natural Resource Sciences and Management) was involved in the development and fielding of the COVID-19 survey instrument. Matthew Hockert (M.S. student in Applied Economics) has been involved with the regional foodshed analysis as part of his thesis project, completing the literature review and working with the IMPLAN data. At the University of Florida, under the supervision of Co-PD Court, Bijeta Bijen Saha and Eyrika Orlando (graduate students in Food and Resource Economics) were involved in the development and fielding of the COVID-19 survey instrument. A post-doctoral researcher Xiaohui Qiao has been involved with regional foodshed analysis. Under the supervision of Co-PD Lauri Baker, Meredith Oglesby (M.S. student in Agricultural Communications) has been involved in the consumer survey work as part of her thesis project. Joelle Covarrubias also completed her undergraduate thesis. Michaela Kandzer (a recent graduate and Communications Specialist) and Anissa Zagonel (Research Coordinator) have been involved in consumer survey work and communication platform development. At the University of Wisconsin, under the supervision of Co-PD Stevens, James Teal (PhD student in Agricultural and Applied Economics) has cleaned survey data, developed a measure of business diversification, and, in conjunction with other project personnel, is in the process of producing a research manuscript about firm diversification and resilience to labor shocks. At the University of California-Irvine, under the supervision of Co-PD Gustavo Oliviera, Danielle Tassara (PhD student) was involved in the fielding of the COVID-19 survey instrument. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Research findings were communicated to stakeholders during the reporting period through webinars (1/28/21, 6/17/21), podcasts (5/5/21), Ted Talks (6/29/21), presentations at professional meetings and conferences, professional journals, and extension-ready publications. In addition to the publications listed under "Products and Outputs," team members are preparing the following manuscripts: Court, C., Orlando, E., Baker, L., Digiacomo,G., Lai J., Nowak, J., Oliveira, G., Peterson, H., Ropicki, A., Saha, B., & Zhang, L. Survey instrument for harmonized assessment of the impacts of COVID-19 on the U.S. food system. Journal of Extension. Stevens, A., Teal, J., Court, C., Digiacomo, G., Miller, M., & Peterson, H. Diversification and Resilience in the Food System: Labor Shocks from COVID-19. Journal TBD. During the reporting period, websites of the project team members were used temporarily to communicate about the project, as the project website was being developed with organization for effective communication of project findings. A series of extension-ready fact sheets are also being developed to aid educators and other target audiences who can benefit from research results and lessons learned. The fact sheets have been made available on the project website after the reporting period. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?All planned activities need to be completed. In particular, the main ones are: Regional foodshed analysis: Matthew Hockert's thesis will be completed. Food flow analysis: This activity has three more meetings, with empirical findings and methodology expected to be finalized and published in the next six months. Focus groups: The development of the protocol and recruitment of participants across the supply chain segments and study regions. Sessions will be held January - April 2022. The project website will be live to hold online resources generated from the project at https://ruralengagement.org/lessons-from-covid-19-toolkit/. Webinars #3 and #4 are scheduled for November 18, 2021 and April 21, 2022. Virtual conference is scheduled for May 5, 2022. Train-the-trainer course materials will be developed. Presentations at professional associations, including a roundtable discussion at the AFHV/ASFS joint meeting and an organized symposium at the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association annual meeting. Complete and develop manuscripts for peer-reviewed publications. Additional fact sheets will be developed as findings from consumer behavior response, equilibrium displacement modeling, regional foodshed analysis, food flow network analysis, and the focus groups/interviews are developed. Two more meetings with the advisory committee are scheduled for February and September of 2022.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted food supply chains in the U.S. We witnessed empty shelves in supermarkets, food rotting in fields, economic hardship of farmers and restauranteurs, and workers exposing themselves to health risks to supply us our food. The overall goal of this project is to generate science-based knowledge and resources to enhance preparedness of the U.S. food supply chains for future disruptions. In the first year of the project, we developed and fielded two surveys: one to supply chain businesses in the three study regions centered around Los Angeles, Miami, and Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan areas, and other to individuals nationwide. We find a wide variation in self-reported measures of how quarterly revenues in 2020 compared to previous years across the study regions, which will be further investigated in the next project year. From the consumer survey, we collected changes in consumer food-related practices in response to the pandemic, estimated demands for regionally sourced foods and regional food outlets, such as farmers markets, along with demand for different food shopping logistics, such as online ordering and cubside pickup. Our preliminary findings have been shared in multiple webinars to our audiences, and manuscripts are being prepared for submission to peer-reviewed journals. We also made significant progress on all project objectives. Obj 1. Assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on farm and food supply chain operations in the study regions, both in the immediate and longer terms, by understanding consumers' behavioral response regionally and across the U.S. The COVID-19 impact survey team (Peterson, Baker, Court, Digiacomo, Oliveira, Zhang) designed the survey instrument for businesses involved in major segments of the food supply chain to obtain first-hand accounts of how their businesses have been impacted by COVID-19. The survey questionnaire was administered using Qualtrics software and fielded February 1 - April 15, 2021 to 28,896 food businesses primarily by email and others by postcards with QR code linking to the survey. Additional follow-up reminders were issued by mail and telephone. A total of 925 surveys were opened with 900 of those agreeing to participate in the survey. The majority of survey respondents (98%) came from within the study region states and represented all segments of the food supply chain. All data have been cleaned and compiled into a summary report. Preliminary quantitative findings suggest statistically significant regional differences in the pandemic's impact on business revenue across different supply chain segments. The consumer survey team included Baker, Peterson, Oliveira, and Zhang. The survey presented three times periods (early pandemic referring to March-April 2020, mid-pandemic referring to August-September 2020, and current referring to June 2021) and asked respondents to self-report changes in their food acquisition behavior across these time periods. To gauge how their behavior may evolve past the pandemic, items were included based on the diffusion of innovation theory. To estimate the responsiveness of their demands for different purchasing logistics that were popularized over the pandemic to changes in perceived public health risks, choice-based conjoint was designed. The survey was fielded to a stratified random sample of 1,000 individuals nationwide in July to August, 2021. Preliminary findings suggest that the composition of food items purchased did not change relative to changes in the ways individuals shopped for food. Demand for logistics was much more responsive to perceived levels of public health risk, compared to demand for shopping outlets or for local foods. Demand for at-home delivery was more price inelastic than curbside pick options. 2. Understand capacities and structural vulnerabilities of regional food systems to support their population needs. Regional food analysis team (Peterson, Court, and a graduate student) completed a preliminary literature review. The existing literature has focused on agricultural production capacity relative to the population needs, ignoring the supply chain segments in the middle. The team began to explore the issue by working with the IMPLAN data to identify the measures of interest. We had a breakthrough after the reporting period and will report the findings in the final report. The food flow analysis team (including Miller, Stevens, Court, and Peterson) met eight times during the reporting period, in collaboration with the Konar Lab at UIUC. We discussed data used to determine cold chain food flow, such as the Commodity Flow Survey and Freight Analysis Framework, IMPLAN, and the food flow model developed by Megan Konar (a public domain in-out flow model). We discussed regional data availability and network structure analysis so that we may link this analysis to the regional foodshed analysis. The UIUC team provided preliminary findings at multiple meetings. Cold chain food movements make up about 20% of the food moved by weight, and about 45% by value, indicating that other food movements (shelf stable products, grains, soybeans, cotton, live animals, etc.) have a significant impact on transportation infrastructure and thus account for substantial transportation infrastructure expenses compared to perishable foods. We learned that there is insufficient data (because it is proprietary) to model cold chain produce movements. For this reason, the analysis will focus on the movement of meat and dairy, which account for 80% of the weight and 87% of the cold chain value. We now understand that perishable bakery is a significant cold chain category. 3. Co-develop resources and strategies for current and future disruptions with supply chain stakeholders and experts The communication and online resources team (Baker, Boyer, Lindsey, students) performed an environmental scan of online resources that emerged during the pandemic. Using the google search terms (COVID-19 + farm resources, selling online, buying from farms, local food, food supply chain, regional food, emergency food, curbside pickup, food processing, food marketing, farm legal support, and farmworkers), the team sampled 779 resources. The majority of resources identified (66%) came from non-profit organizations, commodity associations and online news sources. Another 32% of resources came from the USDA and universities. The scan suggests that while non-governmental organizations were quick to respond to COVID-19 information needs, there remains room for rigorous University and government research. The team also completed the project website as a communication platform for project findings past the current reporting period. The focus group team (Peterson, Digiacomo, Day Farnsworth, Oliveira, Zhang) began meeting at the end of the reporting period to follow up with the COVID impact survey respondents who were willing to participate in follow-up discussion groups and recruit other participants. 4. Develop and offer training programs for university cooperative extension personnel and other decision makers to strengthen support and understanding for local and regional supply chain participants at times of disruptions The extension team (Boyer, Baker, Lindsey, Day Farnsworth) have led organizing the project teams' webinars and identified the date for a virtual conference and online learning course materials in the second year of the project.
Publications
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2021
Citation:
Zagonel, A. M., Baker, L. M., Covarrubias, J., & Lindsey, A. (2021). Credibility in crisis: Determining the availability and credibility of online food supply chain resources during the COVID-19 pandemic. Advancements in Agricultural Development, 2(3), 3949. https://doi.org/10.37433/aad.v2i3.145
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2021
Citation:
Miller, M. (2021). Identifying critical thresholds for resilient regional food flows: a case study from the U.S. Upper Midwest. Frontiers. https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fsufs.2021.684159/full.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Awaiting Publication
Year Published:
2021
Citation:
Miller, M. (2021). Big data, Information asymmetry and food supply chain management. Journal of Agriculture, Food Systems and Community Development. (In Press)
- Type:
Other
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2021
Citation:
Miller, M. (2021, February 16). U.S. Food Flows: A Cold-Chain Network Analysis of Freight Movements to Inform Local and Regional Food Issues, USDA-AMS-TSD workshop.
- Type:
Other
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2021
Citation:
Peterson, H. (2021, March 15). "Lessons from COVID-19: Positioning Regional Food Supply Chains for Future Crises." NIFA COVID-19 Research Projects Forum, USDA.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2021
Citation:
Peterson, H.H., Baker, L.M., Oliveira, G., & Zhang, L. (2021) "An Altered State: Changes in Consumer Food Purchasing Behavior during the COVID-19 Pandemic" in Invited Paper Session "Consumer Market Responses in the Covid-Era," American Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meeting, Austin, TX.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2021
Citation:
Peterson, H.H., Oliveira, G., Court, C., Martinez, N.,Safley, R., & Tastad-Damer, D. (2021, June 10). "Roundtable: Lessons from COVID-19: Regional perspectives on food system equity." Just Food Conference (ASFS, AFHVS, CAFS, SAFN Joint Annual Conference), New York University.
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