Source: PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY submitted to
UNDERSTANDING NATURAL RESOURCE-RELATED ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN RURAL AMERICA
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
EXTENDED
Funding Source
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
1022559
Grant No.
2020-67023-30957
Project No.
PENW-2019-07407
Proposal No.
2019-07407
Multistate No.
(N/A)
Program Code
A1661
Project Start Date
May 15, 2020
Project End Date
May 14, 2024
Grant Year
2020
Project Director
Thiede, B. C.
Recipient Organization
PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY
408 Old Main
UNIVERSITY PARK,PA 16802-1505
Performing Department
Agricultural Economics & Rural
Non Technical Summary
The purpose of this project is to understand the effects of six forms of natural resource-related economic development on per capital income, poverty, and relative support for natural resource-related economic development in rural America. Community support for development is crucial for successful policy implementation. Thus this study evaluates the landscape and drivers of relative support -- meaning support for one form of development in relation to at least one or more additional forms of development -- for six common forms of rural natural resource development. The study will take place through four objectives/tasks: (1) conduct a national survey of rural residents' relative support for various forms of development; (2) model the impact of six forms of natural resource use and development on county-level per capita income and poverty from 1990-2016; (3) link the historic county-level data to individual-level relative supportin a multi-level analysis of stated preference grounded in social exchange theory; (4) integrate quantitative analyses with comparative qualitative case-studies on four high poverty rural counties with different types of natural resource dependence. This project addresses USDA Strategic Goal 4, Facilitate Rural Prosperity and Economic Development, by providing actionable evidence to promote rural economic development and prosperity, enhance quality of life, and alleviate poverty. This project will inform future policy by improving national understanding of the impacts of six common forms of natural resource use on rural economic development, as well as the levels and drivers of present-daysupport for future natural resource development.
Animal Health Component
0%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
100%
Applied
0%
Developmental
0%
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
80360503080100%
Goals / Objectives
The overall goal of this project is to understand the effect of six forms of natural resource-related economic development on per capita income, poverty, and relative support for natural resource-related economic development in rural America. Building on findings from a recently-completed pilot study, and using the theoretical framework of social exchange (Emerson 1976), we hypothesize that the driving factors of relative support (one form in relation to another) will be different than the driving factors of general support (support for a single form of development) (Mueller & Tickamyer 2019). In doing so, we aim to inform multiple stakeholders of the broader landscape of both the economic impacts of development, as well as rural resident perspectives on natural resource-related economic and community development. To achieve this goal, we will address four specific objectives over a three-year project period.Objective 1 (Year 1): Collect quantitative primary data on rural residents' perspectives, beliefs, and relative support for six forms of natural resource development in non-metro U.S. counties. With support from the Penn State Survey Research Center, we will conduct a representative national survey of a random sample of households in non-metropolitan counties throughout the continental United States. The survey will assess support for six major forms of natural resource-related development common across rural America, as well as their associated perceived impacts, power dynamics, and trust expressed by residents: oil and gas, commercial logging, mining, wind energy, tourism, and real estate. The survey will also assess additional likely drivers of support such as industrial history, community identity, political ideology, place attachment, economic outlook, perceived resource dependence, and socio-demographic factors. The survey will be based upon a 2018 pilot study of rural Pennsylvanians that tested the instrument, funded by the Penn State Social Science Research Institute (Mueller & Tickamyer 2019).Objective 2 (Year 1): Estimate the effect of natural resource use and dependence on per capita income and poverty in non-metro counties throughout the United States from 1990 to 2016. In order to ground our study in the documented impact of each form of development, we will perform a statistical analysis of the relationship of each form of development with both per capita income to residents and poverty. We will estimate models of both per capita income and poverty to ensure we consider the impacts of development on both changes in income, and the distribution of those changes. We will compile data from 1990-2016 for all non-metro United States counties, and produce estimates of the level of natural resource development captured by employment shares in the six forms of natural resource use identified in Objective 1. We will also collate data on per capita income and poverty rates. Additional relevant demographic control variables will be extracted and compiled. Drawing on a recently completed pilot project, these data will then be analyzed using spatial panel fixed effects models to determine the effect of natural resource use and dependence on economic outcomes in non-metro U.S. counties over the study period. This form of modeling allows for the precise estimation of within-county effects while controlling for both spillover effects and unobserved county heterogeneity. The dependent variables of this objective will be per capita income and the poverty rate. The independent variables will be the level of natural resource development (i.e. employment share) in each form of development. Time-variant control variables expected to influence both independent and dependent variables (e.g. confounders) will be included to ensure proper inference.Objective 3 (Year 1-3): Analyze the drivers of relative support for natural resource-related economic development in the non-metro counties in the United States. Using the data collected from both the primary data collection effort of Objective 1, and the secondary data collection of Objective 2, we will develop statistical models to analyze the drivers of general and relative support at the individual level. We will estimate statistical models of respondents' stated top preference for future development. These models will build on recently conducted pilot analyses (Mueller & Tickamyer 2019) using primary survey data on perceived impacts, industry trust, and industry power to model top development preferences by including county-level employment shares for each of the six forms of development. This approach will allow for a more holistic assessment of the effect of longitudinal exchange relationships theorized by social exchange theory (Emerson 1976) than is currently available in the literature.Objective 4 (Year 2-3): Conduct a comparative case study to triangulate understanding of the views among community members and stakeholders surrounding natural resource related-economic development. Building on recent work developing a typology of natural resource dependence conducted by members of the study team and results from objective 2, we will select four case study counties in high-poverty areas of the United States that are dependent on different forms of natural resource use: 1) extractive, 2) non-extractive, 3) hybrid (both extractive and non-extractive), and 4) non-dependent. These counties will form the basis of a qualitative comparative case study of the relationship between different forms of natural resource dependence and support for future development. The primary goal of this objective is to develop an understanding of the experiences and viewpoints of community members and stakeholders in poor rural areas dependent upon various forms of natural resource-related economic development. The methods used will include semi-structured interviews with key informants and local residents, a discourse analysis of local newspapers, and archival analyses. Particular care will be taken to ensure that the voices of non-landowning, and traditionally marginalized groups such as women and ethnic/racial minorities are heard. The methodology of the case studies is based upon a spring 2018 pilot study performed in Clarion County, PA in conjunction with the pilot survey.
Project Methods
A summary of methods associated with each objective of the project include the followIng.Objective 1: Collect quantitative primary data on rural residents' perspectives, beliefs, and relative support for six forms of natural resource development in non-metro U.S. counties.Asurvey to measure relative support for six forms of natural resource-related economic development: oil and gas, commercial logging, mining, wind energy, tourism, and real estate will be constructed based on a previously conducted pilot study. The key measures of the instrument will be a repeated battery of perceived impacts,A sample of 7,000 continental United States households will be produced and drawn by the Penn State Survey Research Center. High poverty counties, operationalized as counties with a poverty level at or above 1.5 times the 2016 national average of 12.7%, or 19.1% will be oversampled.Objective 2: Estimate the effect of natural resource use and dependence on per capita income and poverty in non-metro counties throughout the United States from 1990 to 2016. We will assemble a county-level dataset that includes the level of each form of natural resource development, poverty, and other demographic characteristics, from 1990 to 2016. The specific years of analysis will be 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2016. These data will be drawn from four main sources: Unsuppressed Census Bureau County Business Patterns data from Economic Modeling LLC (EMSI), the Decennial Census, the American Community Survey (ACS), and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Local Area Personal Income and Employment data.Objective 3: Analyze the drivers of relative support for natural resource-related economic development in the non-metro counties in the United States. We will utilize a multi-level approach to evaluate the drivers of relative support for each form of natural resource-related development. This entails combiningthe mail-back survey and the county level database into a master database containing individual and ecological data. We will merge the individual-level primary dataset and the county-level secondary dataset, which will allow us to account for contextual and individual-level determinants of relative support. Then using both individual and county level predictors, we will estimate a model predicting the primary drivers of relative support for natural resource-related development.Objective 4 (Year 2-3): Conduct a comparative case study to triangulate understanding of the views among community members and stakeholders surrounding natural resource related-economic development. To add further depth to our project, we will conduct a comparative case study (Grandy 2010) of four high-poverty counties with differing histories of natural resource use selected from a typology of dependence the research team has recently created. The use of multiple methods - semi-structured interviews, discourse analysis, and historical analysis - will facilitate triangulation of the research findings. The purpose of this objective is to answer the primary research question - what are the experiences of community members and stakeholders living within different forms of natural resource dependence, and how have those experiences affected their support for future development?(Note: Muchgreater detail on each of procedures and analytic techniques to be followed for each steps is provided in the original proposal.)

Progress 05/15/22 to 05/14/23

Outputs
Target Audience:Our target audience includes other academics, rural development policymakers and practitioners, and members of the public (especially those in natural resource-dependent communities). During this reporting period, we reached our target audiences by engaging with stakeholders in resource-dependent communities during the fieldwork/data collection process. We also prepared manuscripts and conference presentations for dissemination (which occurred/will occur within the next reporting period). Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?During the reporting period, the project hired and engaged with a doctoral student in the Educational Leadership program at Penn State who has interests in rural community development. The student was able to participate in the qualitative data collection and analysis, and will continue to collaborate with the faculty investigators on the resulting manuscript(s). How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? Nothing Reported What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Our activities in the next reporting period will focus on: Completing the manuscript reporting the secondary data analysis of the relationship between natural resource dependence and economic development outcomes. This manuscript has an added health focus, as suggested by one of the reviewers. (Objective #2) Analyzing the household survey data to examine the determinants of support for natural resource development (Objective #3). Writing the manuscript reporting the findings from the qualitative case studies (Objective #4). We also plan to write several manuscripts using other data from the household survey that were collected under Objective #1.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? During this reporting period, we completed the following two objectives: Collect quantitative primary data on rural residents' perspectives, beliefs, and relative support for six forms of natural resource development in non-metro U.S. counties (Objective #1). Conduct a comparative case study to triangulate understanding of the views among community members and stakeholders surrounding natural resource related economic development (Objective #4). With the household survey data collected, we have also commenced with analyses that advance objective #3 (understanding the drivers of relative support for natural resource related economic development), which we expect to complete during the final reporting period. Finally, the team is working to finalize an analysis and manuscript that would achieve objective #2. This manuscript is approximately 80% complete.

Publications


    Progress 05/15/21 to 05/14/22

    Outputs
    Target Audience:Our target audience includes other academics, rural development policymakers and practitioners, and members of the public (especially those in natural resource-dependent communities). During this reporting period, we reached our target audiences by presenting preliminary results from our study at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, which is attended by academics and researchers from the public and private sectors. Changes/Problems:We continue to be behind our original timeline due to the major pandemic-related impacts at the start of the project, which have also affected our progress in this last reporting period (albeit to a somewhat lesser extent). We nonetheless believe we have caught up somewhat during this past reporting period and will continue toward our goals this next period. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?An MS student at Penn State has been involved in parts of the survey instrument design. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?The results of preliminary findings regarding the association between natural resource dependence and health were presented at the annual meeting of the Population Asssociation of America. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?We plan to achieve the following during the next reporting period: Finalize an analysis of the relationship between natural resource dependence, economic outcomes, and population health, and submit the associated manuscript for peer review. Field the survey of support for natural resource development and process/analyze the data we collect. Conduct qualitative case studies of high-poverty natural resource-dependent rural communities.

    Impacts
    What was accomplished under these goals? We accomplished the following objectives under the project goals: Developed a dataset of social and economic variables that will be used to study the effects of natural resource dependence on economic and health outcomes. Designed/finalized a survey instrument that will be used to understand relative support for natural resource development (and related topics) in rural communities. Designed/finalized the strategy for fieldling the survey (in collaboration with the Penn State Survey Research Center). Designed a strategy for conducting qualitative case studies.

    Publications


      Progress 05/15/20 to 05/14/21

      Outputs
      Target Audience:Our target audience includes other academics, rural development policymakers and practitioners, and members of the public (especially those in natural resource-dependent communities). Since work during this reporting period was largely administrative and/or focused on database development, we did not engage this target audience. Changes/Problems:The implementation of the survey and efforts to complete a draft of our first project manuscript have been delayed by approximately 6-8 months. Both days are due to a combination of (a) major pandemic-related disruptions to work in general and data collection in particular; and (b) delays in initial grant administration (e.g., associated with the change in PIs). While significant, we are confident that we are well-positioned to make significant progress and catch up over coming months. Finally, we have identified a source of data that will allow us to extend the time period of our secondary data analysis back to 1980 (rather than 1990 as originally proposed). In our view, this represents a significant improvement. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?The project has provided opportunities for two junior scholars (Thiede and Mueller) to work with established experts in rural development (Tickamyer, Schafft, Graefe). Additionally, the abovementioned working paper led by Mueller is co-authored with a PhD Student at USU in sociology (Jesse Shircliff). Through the project, Shircliff learned how to use Stata, manage and collate databases, and learned foundational literature related to the grant. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?The abovementioned working paper has been submitted to Rural Sociology for review and is currently available as a preprint on SocArXiv at https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/mbq9s/. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Our primary goals for the next reporting period are as follows: Complete and submit for review the proposed manuscript examining the relationship between natural resource dependence, economic development, and health. Field the household survey and complete data cleaning. Identify case study sites and initiate planning for the proposed fieldwork.

      Impacts
      What was accomplished under these goals? We have developed code for generating our final database. This code has been developed through our first working paper (described below) as well as through the publication of papers from the pilot quantitative data outlined in our initial proposal. Through this, major problems in data structure have been troubleshooted and resolved. We produced a draft of the survey instrument that we will use to collect primary data on rural residents' perspectives, beliefs, and relative support for six forms of natural resource development in non-metro U.S. counties. We are in the process of finalizing the instrument and plan to work with the Penn State Survey Research Center to confirm plans regarding survey implementation. Although this project was conceptualized before the COVID-19 pandemic, we intend to use our survey as an opportunity to collect data on the experience of the pandemic in rural America--with a focus on access to healthcare, vaccination, and poverty. While secondary to our main project objectives, this addition is in-line with the stated aims of USDA Program Area Priority A1661 on identifying strategies for economic growth in regions of persistent poverty that can directly or indirectly impact public-health crises. We developed a first project-related paper, which assesses the moderating role of market concentration on the relationship between natural resource development and economic outcomes in rural America. Results show that market concentration--meaning few employers in a market--reduces the positive impacts of low levels of natural resource extraction and makes non-extractive natural resource activities even less valuable for rural markets. The citation for this paper is: Mueller, J. T., Shircliff, J. E., Steinbaum, M. Market Concentration and Natural Resource Development in Rural America. In review at Rural Sociology. Per review panel suggestions, we have developed an outline for an additional paper that examines the relationship between natural resource dependence and population health. We plan to add corresponding health outcomes to our dataset in the coming months.

      Publications