Progress 09/01/19 to 08/31/22
Outputs
Target Audience:We conducted a wide variety of efforts to engage diverse stakeholders. A detailed list is provided in "Other Products", and general types of efforts included: Invited speaker and panel presentations at workshops and planning events. In-person meetings and conference calls with other actors actively engaged in drought decision-support (e.g. agricultural industry, governmental and NGOs, etc.) Formal classroom instruction with undergraduates. Experiential learning opportunities for undergraduate student researchers. Development of a web presence on the Boise State system Our efforts engaged diverse audiences, as listed below: Representatives of agricultural industry Individual farmers and ranchers Idaho Soil and Water Conservation Commission Managers at the Rock Creek Ranch Researchers at Nancy Cummings Research, Extension, and Education Center University of Wyoming Extension Teton Water Users Association Hagaenbarth Management Madison Valley Ranchlands Group Martinell Ranches Page Ranch Beyeler Ranches Non-profits focused on drought management Heart of the Rockies Initiative Friends of the Teton River Henry's Fork Foundation Big Hole Watershed Committee The Nature Conservancy Centennial Valley Association Yellowstone to Yukon Initiative Montana Watershed Coordination Council Lolo Watershed group Big Hole Watershed Committee Beaverhead Watershed Committee Big Hole Watershed Committee HoloScene Wildlife Services LLC Future West Center for Large Landscape Conservation Big Sky Watershed Corps, One Montana Centennial Valley Association Lemhi Regional Land Trust Salmon Valley Stewardship Governmental Organizations Shoshone-Bannock Idaho Fish and Game Montana Department of Natural Resources Bureau of Land Management US Forest Service Madison Conservation District Salmon-Challis National Forest Faculty researchers and students The project integrates 5 faculty researchers from three Universities from multiple disciplines and provides training for 2 PhD and 2 MS students Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Objective 1: We have trained 1 M.S. student (Fanok), in the form of coursework and 1-on-1 work with university mentors. The MS student participated in several professional development activities and team meetings. She also successfully led two peer-reviewed papers, one recently accepted and one published in 2020. Objective 2: We have trained 1 PhD student (Kolarik), who proceeded to earn his own funding in the form of a NASA graduate student fellowship. We have also supported an indigenous PhD student (Alvarez) who has salary support from an NSF grant, and this USDA grant has supported her in-person engagement with the Shoshone-Bannock tribal community. The PhD students also participated in several professional development activities, including team meetings, community workshops, and discussion panels. Objective 3: We have trained 1 MS student (Wold), in the form of coursework and 1-on-1 work with university mentors. The MS student has participated in several professional development activities and team meetings and presented at one professional meeting (2021 Annual Meeting of the Society for Range Management). How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Providing decision support is a specific objective (Objective 4), and we have a) designed a decision-support tool (MRRMaid), and b) successfully gotten funding to develop the tool. We have conducted numerous forms of outreach in the past year, including individual site visits, data support to stakeholders, peer-reviewed publications, and invited presentations to government and community groups. We also have participated in activities that disseminate knowledge to undergraduate students at Boise State, via our Vertically Integrated Project and via guest seminars in undergraduate courses. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?
Nothing Reported
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
Statement of impact Our main accomplishment was to build a cross-disciplinary and cross-sectoral coalition of stakeholders and scientists to support efforts towards drought decision support in the western United States. We have a) galvanized our research team and completed our research plan, b) participated a wide variety of stakeholder activities, including workshops, working groups, and one-on-one conversations with non-profits, government officials and the agricultural industry, and 3) produced several peer-reviewed publications and community outreach products, as well as gotten three additional grants to continue our work. Our research has led to changes in knowledge about, and action towards, drought decision support. In the bigger picture, our relationships with diverse stakeholders across the societal and political spectrum are of critical importance, because they bridge a growing political and social divide between urban and rural communities. Activities and accomplishments for each specific project objective: Assemble existing drought-related geospatial datasets and compare them with ranchers' perceptions and experiences of drought Summary: Climate impacts such as droughts have significant social, ecological, and economic effects in arid or semi-arid rangeland regions. Land managers have access to a variety of climate tools which could increase their adaptive capacity to manage under climate variability. Yet little is known about climate tool usage in this region, and how these tools could be improved. Major activities:For this objective, we (1) facilitated workshops with our regional partner organization to determine past experiences of drought, and visions for achieving drought resilience, among ranchers and other land managers; and (2) collected existing drought-related datasets - or "climate tools," and then conducted interviews with tool users to determine how the tools are used, and how they could be improved. (3) We then conducted a literature review of existing studies on the challenges and opportunities for ranchers and pastoralists using decision-support tools that incorporate climate data and (4) facilitated a conversation about improving and using decision-support tools at the 2021 Society for Range Mangement (SRM) meeting. Key outcomes or other accomplishments: The research group has developed useful information on drought experiences and climate tool needs and use. We published a research brief based on the workshops that was distributed to stakeholders and facilitated a vibrant discussion of decision-support tools for ranchers at SRM. We have published two peer-reviewed papers from this work, Fanok et al. (2020) in the journal Rangelands (read by a wide audience including practitioners) and Wardropper et al. (2021) in the journal Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability (a high-impact review journal). Our third paper from this work has been accepted in the Journal of Hydrology for a special issue on Water Decision Support Systems (Fanok et al., accepted). Finally, M.S. student Lily Fanok's thesis, which was partially supported by this funding, was successfully defended in the University of Idaho Natural Resources graduate program and published on ProQuest ("Drought Preparedness in Large Landscapes: Using Adaptation Pathways and Decision-Support Tools to Increase Resilience"). Quantify surface water availability by fusing the Landsat data archive (1984-current) with other high spatial resolution optical and radar remotely sensed imagery. Summary: Decreased surface water availability is the most recognized impact from drought by land managers. However, existing maps of surface water in the West are either incomplete, static or too coarse of a resolution to be useful for on-the-ground decision-making. Major activities completed: In this objective, we a) utilized Google Earth Engine to create high-resolution time-series maps of water availability; b) submitted a manuscript for peer-reviewed publication. Key outcomes or other accomplishments: Changes in knowledge gained by the PhD student and faculty researchers involved in this project. We were awarded funding from NASA to continue our work on remote sensing of water resources. 3. Incorporate drought datasets into economic models of droughts and drought adaptation. Summary: Many ranchers in the mountain west rely on rangeland vegetation for low cost summer feed to remain economically feasible. The threat of a drier climate, longer and or more severe droughts will increase the variability of forage production on rangelands which have the potential to financially impact livestock producers. Major activities completed:In this objective, we utilized Landsat-based plant productivity estimates to create a time-series dataset of forage production, which is input into an economic model that simulates optimal production decisions for a 300-head cattle ranch facing environmental and economic constraints. Key outcomes or other accomplishments: There was significant knowledge gained by the masters student and faculty researchers involved in this project. The research group is developing novel techniques to combine remote sensing observations with ranch-level economic forecasting models. The MS student successfully defended his thesis and the work is currently being reviewed in the journal Rangelands. 4. Develop a drought decision-support platform (DDeSuP) for stakeholders Summary: Frequently, scientific knowledge that could be used to guide decisions is not effectively communicated to decision-makers or the public. Major activities completed: Covid limited our ability to conduct the stakeholder workshops as outlined in the proposal. However, in the past year, we have been able to take a more individual approach to gather information from stakeholders about their needs. Key outcomes or other accomplishments: We have developed a decision-support tool named Mesic Resource Restoration Monitoring aid (MRRMaid), which has been funded through a $1.2 million project from NASA. In addition, we have established a strong network of stakeholders, who will serve as our advisory board during MRRMaid development phase. Other major outcomes include knowledge gained by the researchers in terms of what information needs stakeholders have, and knowledge gained by stakeholders of our research and capabilities.
Publications
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2022
Citation:
Wardropper, C.B. and A. Brookfield. (2022). Decision-support systems for water management. Journal of Hydrology. 610, 127928. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.12792
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2022
Citation:
Fanok, L.*, B.J. Beltran, M. Burnham, C.B. Wardropper (2022). Use of water decision-support tools for drought. Journal of Hydrology. 607, 127531. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127531
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Under Review
Year Published:
2022
Citation:
Wold A.N., Meddens, A.J.H., Lee K.D., & Jansen, V.S. (In review). Quantifying the effects of drought and vegetation productivity on livestock production decisions and income. Rangelands.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Under Review
Year Published:
2022
Citation:
Kolarik, N., Roopsind, A., Pickens, A., Brandt, J. A satellite-based monitoring system for quantifying water resources dynamics in a semi-arid region. In Review. Ecological Indicators.
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Progress 09/01/20 to 08/31/21
Outputs
Target Audience:We conducted a wide variety of efforts to engage diverse stakeholders. A detailed list is provided in "Other Products", and general types of efforts included: Invited speaker and panel presentations at workshops and planning events. In-person meetings and conference calls with other actors actively engaged in drought decision-support (e.g. agricultural industry, governmental and NGOs, etc.) Formal classroom instruction with undergraduates. Experiential learning opportunities for undergraduate student researchers. Development of a web presence on the Boise State system Our efforts engaged diverse audiences, as listed below: Representatives of agricultural industry Individual farmers and ranchers Idaho Soil and Water Conservation Commission Managers at the Rock Creek Ranch Researchers at Nancy Cummings Research, Extension, and Education Center University of Wyoming Extension Teton Water Users Association Hagaenbarth Management Madison Valley Ranchlands Group Martinell Ranches Page Ranch Beyeler Ranches Non-profits focused on drought management Heart of the Rockies Initiative Friends of the Teton River Henry's Fork Foundation Big Hole Watershed Committee The Nature Conservancy Centennial Valley Association Yellowstone to Yukon Initiative Montana Watershed Coordination Council Lolo Watershed group Big Hole Watershed Committee Beaverhead Watershed Committee Big Hole Watershed Committee HoloScene Wildlife Services LLC Future West Center for Large Landscape Conservation Big Sky Watershed Corps, One Montana Centennial Valley Association Lemhi Regional Land Trust Salmon Valley Stewardship Governmental Organizations Shoshone-Bannock Idaho Fish and Game Montana Department of Natural Resources Bureau of Land Management US Forest Service Madison Conservation District Salmon-Challis National Forest Faculty researchers and students The project integrates 5 faculty researchers from three Universities from multiple disciplines and provides training for 2 PhD and 2 MS students. Changes/Problems:We have not experienced major challenges and the project is moving forward as planned. One complication may arise from the ongoing COVID restrictions on in-person meetings. This will not affect Objectives 1 or 2, as both of these objectives can be conducted with virtual meetings. However, continued development of the decision support tool (Objective 4) requires workshops with stakeholders, which theoretically we could conduct virtually, but in practice, will be most effective in an in-person setting. Should the COVID situation persist, we would be excited to speak with the program manager overseeing our grant to discuss our course of action. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Objective 1: We have trained 1 M.S. student (Fanok), in the form of coursework and 1-on-1 work with university mentors. The MS student participated in several professional development activities and team meetings. She also successfully led two peer-reviewed papers, one recently accepted and one published in 2020. Objective 2: We have trained 1 PhD student (Kolarik), who proceeded to earn his own funding in the form of a NASA graduate student fellowship. We have also supported an indigenous PhD student (Alvarez) who has salary support from an NSF grant, and this USDA grant has supported her in-person engagement with the Shoshone-Bannock tribal community. The PhD students also participated in several professional development activities, including team meetings, community workshops, and discussion panels. Objective 3: We have trained 1 MS student (Wold), in the form of coursework and 1-on-1 work with university mentors. The MS student has participated in several professional development activities and team meetings and presented at one professional meeting (2021 Annual Meeting of the Society for Range Management). How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Providing decision support is a specific objective (Objective 4), and we have a) designed a decision-support tool (MRRMaid), and b) successfully gotten funding to develop the tool. We have conducted numerous forms of outreach in the past year, including individual site visits, data support to stakeholders, peer-reviewed publications, and invited presentations to government and community groups. We also have participated in activities that disseminate knowledge to undergraduate students at Boise State, via our Vertically Integrated Project and via guest seminars in undergraduate courses. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?We are well positioned to achieve our Year 2 benchmarks for all objectives. In particular, for Objective 1, we have completed publication of two manuscripts and the final manuscript has been accepted for publications. For Objective 2, we plan to submit the manuscript for the water resource mapping in January 2022, and we will initiate water mapping objectives associated with the new NASA grant in December 2021. For Objective 3, we plan to prepare and submit a manuscript that assesses the economic impacts of various climate scenarios on ranch economic viability as a function of primary productivity under different future climate scenarios (including a normal, a drought, and an extreme drought scenario) to an interdisciplinary journal. We plan to finalize a thesis (Summer 2021) and produce several peer-reviewed articles and presentations from the outcomes of this research. For Objective 4, we initiate the development of our NASA-funded decision support tool (MRRMaid).
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
Statement of impact Our main accomplishment this year was to build a cross-disciplinary and cross-sectoral coalition of stakeholders and scientists to support efforts towards drought decision support in the western United States. In the first two years of our grant, we have a) galvanized our research team and initiated our research plan, b) participated a wide variety of stakeholder activities, including workshops, working groups, and one-on-one conversations with non-profits, government officials and the agricultural industry, and 3) produced several peer-reviewed publications and community outreach products, as well as gotten two additional grants to continue our work. Our research has led to changes in knowledge about, and action towards, drought decision support. In the bigger picture, our relationships with diverse stakeholders across the societal and political spectrum are of critical importance, because they bridge a growing political and social divide between urban and rural communities. Activities and accomplishments for each specific project objective: Assemble existing drought-related geospatial datasets and compare them with ranchers' perceptions and experiences of drought Major activities:For this objective, we (1) facilitated workshops with our regional partner organization to determine past experiences of drought, and visions for achieving drought resilience, among ranchers and other land managers; and (2) collected existing drought-related datasets - or "climate tools," and then conducted interviews with tool users to determine how the tools are used, and how they could be improved. (3) We then conducted a literature review of existing studies on the challenges and opportunities for ranchers and pastoralists using decision-support tools that incorporate climate data and (4) facilitated a conversation about improving and using decision-support tools at the 2021 Society for Range Mangement (SRM) meeting. Data collected: We recorded views on drought at the drought workshop in 2018 and through individual interviews with 31 participants conducted in 2019. Summary statistics and discussion of results: The primary concerns associated with past drought experiences included threats to ranching livelihoods, including annual and long-term ranch operation viability; threats to functioning ecosystems, including the health of riparian areas; and threats to social connectedness, including strained relationships between urban and rural regional residents. Key outcomes or other accomplishments: The research group has developed useful information on drought experiences and climate tool needs and use. Quantify surface water availability by fusing the Landsat data archive (1984-current) with other high spatial resolution optical and radar remotely sensed imagery. Major activities completed: In this objective, we a) utilized Google Earth Engine to create high-resolution time-series maps of water availability; b) prepared a first draft of a manuscript for peer-reviewed publication. Data collected: Earth Observation data is freely available but requires technical skill to obtain and analyze the large volume of data. The PhD student has successfully completed satellite data collection and analysis. Summary statistics and discussion of results: We trained random forest classifiers to suitably capture extents of surface water and mesic areas in our study area, and found that by fusing SAR data with optical and topographic data, we reduced omission bias in the water class by 21.98%. We aggregated classified images to produce monthly maps for comparison of the Sentinel Fusion (SF) product with a leading publicly available Landsat surface water product at three archetype sites within our study area. These comparisons revealed improvements in all water class metrics in July 2019 (88.82% producer's, 99.96% user's vs. 28.32% producer's, 70.78% user's). For mesic resources, a June 2019 comparison of the SF product at an archetypical riparian site revealed substantial improvements over National Wetlands Inventory estimates in terms of omission (77.68% producer's vs. 26.42% producer's) and over the Intermountain West Joint Venture mesic resources maps in terms of commission (92.03% user's vs. 40.17% user's). Key outcomes or other accomplishments: Changes in knowledge gained by the PhD student and faculty researchers involved in this project. We were awarded funding from NASA to continue our work on remote sensing of water resources. 3. Incorporate drought datasets into economic models of droughts and drought adaptation. Major activities completed:In this objective, we utilized Landsat-based plant productivity estimates to create a time-series dataset of forage production, which is input into an economic model that simulates optimal production decisions for a 300-head cattle ranch facing environmental and economic constraints. We hired a master's student who has; a) calculated the forage estimates, b) created preliminary correlations of climate data to the forage estimates, and c) worked with investigators to input the forage estimates into an economic model. Key outcomes or other accomplishments: There was significant knowledge gained by the masters student and faculty researchers involved in this project. The research group is developing novel techniques to combine remote sensing observations with ranch-level economic forecasting models. The MS student successfully defended his thesis and the work is currently being prepared for a submission to the journal Rangeland Ecology and Management. 4. Develop a drought decision-support platform (DDeSuP) for stakeholders Major activities completed: Covid limited our ability to conduct the stakeholder workshops as outlined in the proposal. However, in the past year, we have been able to take a more individual approach to gather information from stakeholders about their needs. Key outcomes or other accomplishments: We have developed a decision-support tool named Mesic Resource Restoration Monitoring aid (MRRMaid), which has been funded through a $1.2 million project from NASA. In addition, we have established a strong network of stakeholders, who will serve as our advisory board during MRRMaid development phase. Other major outcomes include knowledge gained by the researchers in terms of what information needs stakeholders have, and knowledge gained by stakeholders of our research and capabilities.
Publications
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2020
Citation:
Fanok, L.*, M. Burnham, B. Beltran, C.B. Wardropper. (2020). Visions for large landscape drought resilience in rangelands. Rangelands. doi: 10.1016/j.rala.2020.11.003
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2021
Citation:
Wardropper, C.B., Angerer, J.P., Burnham, M., Fern�ndez-Gim�nez, M.E., Jansen, V.S., Karl, J.W., Lee, K.D., Wollstein, K. (2021). Improving rangeland climate services for ranchers and pastoralists with social science. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability. 52, 82-91. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2021.07.001
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2021
Citation:
Fanok, L., B.J. Beltran, M. Burnham, C.B. Wardropper. Use of water decision-support tools by large landscape management organizations. Accepted, Journal of Hydrology.
|
Progress 09/01/19 to 08/31/20
Outputs
Target Audience:We conducted a wide variety of efforts to engage diverse stakeholders. A detailed list is provided in "Other Products", and general types of efforts included: Invited speaker and panel presentations at workshops and planning events. In-person meetings and conference calls with other actors actively engaged in drought decision-support (e.g. agricultural industry, governmental and NGOs, etc.) Formal classroom instruction with undergraduates. Experiential learning opportunities for undergraduate student researchers. Development of a web presence on the Boise State system Our efforts engaged diverse audiences, as listed below: Representatives of agricultural industry Individual farmers and ranchers Idaho Soil and Water Conservation Commission Managers at the Rock Creek Ranch Teton Water Users Association Hagaenbarth Management Madison Valley Ranchlands Group Martinell Ranches Beyeler Ranches Non-profits Heart of the Rockies Initiative Friends of the Teton River Henry's Fork Foundation Big Hole Watershed Committee The Nature Conservancy Centennial Valley Association Yellowstone to Yukon Initiative Montana Watershed Coordination Council Lolo Watershed group Big Hole Watershed Committee Beaverhead Watershed Committee Big Hole Watershed Committee HoloScene Wildlife Services LLC Future West Center for Large Landscape Conservation Big Sky Watershed Corps, One Montana Centennial Valley Association Lemhi Regional Land Trust Salmon Valley Stewardship Governmental Organizations Idaho Fish and Game Montana Department of Natural Resources Bureau of Land Management US Forest Service Madison Conservation District Salmon-Challis National Forest Faculty researchers and students The project integrates 5 faculty researchers from three Universities from multiple disciplines and provides training for 1 PhD and 2 MS students. We have also engaged researchers at Nancy Cummings Research, Extension, and Education Center and the University of Wyoming Extension. Changes/Problems:We have not experienced major challenges and the project is moving forward as planned. One complication may arise from the ongoing COVID restrictions on in-person meetings. This will not affect Objectives 1 or 2, as both of these objectives can be conducted with virtual meetings. However, Objective 4 requires workshops with stakeholders, which theoretically we could conduct virtually, but in practice, will be most effective in an in-person setting. Should the COVID situation persist, we would be excited to speak with the program manager overseeing our grant to discuss our course of action. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Objective 1: We have trained 1 M.S. studentin the form of coursework and 1-on-1 work with university mentors. The MS student has participated in several professional development activities and team meetings. Objective 2: We have trained 1 PhD student, in the form of coursework and 1-on-1 work with mentors (including faculty researchers and stakeholders). The PhD student also participated in several professional development activities, including team meetings, community workshops, and discussion panels. Objective 3: We have trained 1 MS student, in the form of coursework and 1-on-1 work with university mentors. The MS student has participated in several professional development activities and team meetings. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Providing decision support is a specific objective (Objective 4), and we conducted numerous forms of outreach in the past year, including reports to stakeholders, peer-reviewed publications, and invited presentations to government and community groups, We also have participated in activities that disseminate knowledge to undergraduate students at Boise State, via our Vertically Integrated Project and via guest seminars in undergraduate courses. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?We are well positioned to achieve our Year 2 benchmarks for all objectives. In particular, for Objective 1, we plan to finalize manuscripts in preparation and review by Spring 2021. We will incorporate findings from social science data collection into the full grant submission in Summer 2021. For Objective 2, we plan to complete the water resource mapping and we plan to be in the final stages of Bayesian prediction model development. For Objective 3, we plan to couple the remotely sensed observations to the economic model as various climate scenarios and assess ranch economic viability as a function of primary productivity under different future climate scenarios (including a normal, a drought, and an extreme drought scenario). We plan to finalize a thesis (Summer 2021) and produce several peer-reviewed articles and presentations from the outcomes of this research. For Objective 4, we will conduct a workshop among researchers and stakeholders to begin the co-design of decision support tools, which will form a part of our standard grant submission in 2021.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
Statement of impact Our main accomplishment this year was to build a cross-disciplinary and cross-sectoral coalition of stakeholders and scientists to support efforts towards drought decision support in the western United States. In the first year of our grant, we have a) galvanized our research team and initiated our research plan, and b) participated a wide variety of stakeholder activities, including workshops, working groups, and one-on-one conversations with non-profits, government officials and the agricultural industry. Our research has led to changes in knowledge about, and action towards, drought decision support. In the bigger picture, our relationships with diverse stakeholders across the societal and political spectrum are of critical importance, because they bridge a growing political and social divide between urban and rural communities. Activities and accomplishments for each specific project objective: We completed all first year benchmarks and here we detail activities associated with each objective. Assemble existing drought-related geospatial datasets and compare them with ranchers' perceptions and experiences of drought Summary: Climate impacts such as droughts have significant social, ecological, and economic effects in arid or semi-arid rangeland regions. Land managers have access to a variety of climate tools which could increase their adaptive capacity to manage under climate variability. Yet little is known about climate tool usage in this region, and how these tools could be improved. Major activities:For this objective, we (1) facilitated out workshops with our regional partner organization to determine past experiences of drought, and visions for achieving drought resilience, among ranchers and other land managers; and (2) collected existing drought-related datasets - or "climate tools," and then conducted interviews with tool users to determine how the tools are used, and how they could be improved. We are in the process of summarizing feedback that will inform the creation of a new decision-support tool. Data collected: We recorded views on drought at the drought workshop in 2018 and through interviews with 31 participants conducted in 2019. Summary statistics and discussion of results: The primary concerns associated with past drought experiences included threats to ranching livelihoods, including annual and long-term ranch operation viability; threats to functioning ecosystems, including the health of riparian areas; and threats to social connectedness, including strained relationships between urban and rural regional residents. Table 1 (upon request) summarizes that tools that are most frequently used by type. One example organization is given for each tool, with associated management actions guided by the tool in that organization. Table 2 (upon request) summarizes the criteria deemed most important by organizations when choosing to use a climate tool, as well as examples of when a tool did or did not meet criteria. Key outcomes or other accomplishments: The research group has developed useful information on drought experiences and climate tool needs and use. We are in the process of publishing three peer-reviewed journal articles and we published a research brief based on the workshops that was distributed to stakeholders. 2. Quantify surface water availability by fusing the Landsat data archive (1984-current) with other high spatial resolution optical and radar remotely sensed imagery. Summary: Decreased surface water availability is the most recognized impact from drought by land managers. However, existing maps of surface water in the West are either incomplete, static or too coarse of a resolution to be useful for on-the-ground decision-making. Major activities completed: In this objective, we utilize Google Earth Engine to create high-resolution time-series maps of water availability and apply Bayesian predictive modeling frameworks to forecast water availability in a changing climate. We hired one PhD student at BSU, who has a) created preliminary maps of water resources at 10-m resolution; b) completed development of the preliminary Bayesian predictive model. Data collected: Earth Observation data is freely available but requires technical skill to obtain and analyze the large volume of data. The PhD student has obtained the skills necessary for this objective, and data collection and analysis is ongoing. Summary statistics and discussion of results: None. The research is still in its early stages. Key outcomes or other accomplishments: Changes in knowledge gained by the PhD student and faculty researchers involved in this project. 3. Incorporate drought datasets into economic models of droughts and drought adaptation. Summary: Many ranchers in the mountain west rely on rangeland vegetation for low cost summer feed to remain economically feasible. The threat of a drier climate, longer and or more severe droughts will increase the variability of forage production on rangelands. Major activities completed:In this objective, we utilize Landsat-based plant productivity estimates to create a time-series dataset of forage production, which is input into an economic model that simulates optimal production decisions for a 300-head cattle ranch facing environmental and economic constraints. We hired a master's student who has; a) calculated the forage estimates, b) created preliminary correlations of climate data to the forage estimates, and c) established a work plan to integrate the forage estimates into an economic model. Data collected: We used Landsat data to estimate Gross Primary Production and then converted those estimates into lbs. of forage per acre (needed for input into the economic model). We collected data from Oregon State's PRISM dataset to correlate forage production and ranch income to climate. We collected production cost and return data to parameterize the economic model using enterprise budgets. Summary statistics and discussion of results: Parameterization and calibration of the economic model is ongoing. We have preliminary results from correlation calculations between ranch vegetation productivity and the climate data listed above. Key outcomes or other accomplishments: Significant in knowledge gained by the masters student and faculty researchers involved in this project. The research group is developing novel techniques to combine remote sensing observations with ranch-level economic forecasting models. 4. Develop a drought decision-support platform (DDeSuP) for stakeholders Summary: Frequently, scientific knowledge that could be used to guide decisions is not effectively communicated to decision-makers or the public. Major activities completed: In collaboration with our stakeholder partners, we will co-design informational sources and decision-support tools to communicate the science generated from this proposal. Data collected: The Project Director and PhD student synthesized the proceedings of events into main points, which we will use to guide Year 2 project activities. Summary statistics and discussion of results: None. The research is still in its early stages. Key outcomes or other accomplishments: a) We have established a strong network of stakeholders, who will serve as our advisory board during the decision support development phase. b) Knowledge gained by the researchers in terms of what information needs stakeholders have. c) Knowledge gained by stakeholders of our research and capabilities.
Publications
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Under Review
Year Published:
2020
Citation:
Fanok, L., M. Burnham, B. Beltran, C.B. Wardropper. Visions for large landscape drought resilience in rangelands. In second review, Rangelands.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Under Review
Year Published:
2020
Citation:
Wardropper C.B., J.P. Angerer, M. Burnham, M.E. Fern�ndez-Gim�nez, V.S. Jansen, J.W. Karl, K. Lee, K. Wollstein. Climate tools for rangelands: Social science insights on barriers and opportunities for use by ranchers and pastoralists. In review for special issue on Climate Decision Making in Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2020
Citation:
Fanok, L., M. Burnham, B. Beltran, C.B. Wardropper. Use of climate tools by large landscape management organizations. In preparation for Weather, Climate, and Society.
- Type:
Theses/Dissertations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2020
Citation:
Lily Fanok, Drought preparedness in large landscape management: using adaptation pathways and decision-support tools to increase resilience
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