Source: UNIV OF IDAHO submitted to NRP
TAPESTRY: A COLLABORATIVE OPEN SOURCE DATA PLATFORM AND VIRTUAL LABORATORY FOR REGIONAL AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
COMPLETE
Funding Source
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
1018891
Grant No.
2019-67023-29636
Cumulative Award Amt.
$499,758.00
Proposal No.
2018-08698
Multistate No.
(N/A)
Project Start Date
Jun 1, 2019
Project End Date
May 31, 2023
Grant Year
2019
Program Code
[A1651]- Agriculture Economics and Rural Communities: Environment
Recipient Organization
UNIV OF IDAHO
875 PERIMETER DRIVE
MOSCOW,ID 83844-9803
Performing Department
(N/A)
Non Technical Summary
The goal of this project is to develop a transparent, open-access virtual laboratory (Tapestry) providing an array of in-situ data and analytic services that enables researchers, extension professionals, and policy makers to investigate inter-regional, inter-temporal, and inter-sectoral relationships at county-level regional economies of the United States. Open-access to comprehensive, inter-temporal and detailed multiregional social accounts (MR-SAM) of domestic US regional economies, and the methods used to derive MR-SAM, are not available to researchers and practitioners in a collaborative, transparent manner. The lack access to fine spatial granularity in social accounts is hindering the understanding of economic growth, recovery, and income distribution across a spatially disparate nation. Enabling experiments and applications with replicable sets of cross-sectional and time-series accounts and general equilibrium models, allows new insights into the causes and nature of income growth across the nation, differences in income distribution across the nation, differences in wealth distribution across the nation, and measures of the economic interdependency of different regions. Additional examples of the types of analysis that these accounts will make possible include a more detailed and customized understanding of how forest and agricultural sectors contribute to regional economies in terms of both economic growth and resiliency, the impacts of different federal and state policies on agricultural and natural resource sectors, the development of inter-disciplinary, integrated economic-hazard/disaster impact and recovery models, the reconciliation of regional economic redevelopment and national economic development efforts, clearer understanding of the underlying relationships between current account activity and the accumulation of wealth and capital, and the ability to address regional and national economic growth, distribution, and trade policy which explicitly accounts for geographic differences across the nation.
Animal Health Component
100%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
(N/A)
Applied
100%
Developmental
(N/A)
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
60860503010100%
Goals / Objectives
The goal of this project is to develop a transparent, open-access virtual laboratory (Tapestry) providing an array of in-situ data and analytic services, primarily in the form of Multi-Regional Social Accounting Matrices (MR-SAMs), that enables researchers, extension professionals, and policy makers to investigate at fine geographical resolution the inter-regional, inter-temporal, and inter-sectoral relationships that exist in county-level regional economies of the United States. Open-access to comprehensive, inter-temporal and detailed MR-SAMs of domestic US regional economies, and the methods used to derive them, have never been available to researchers and practitioners in a collaborative, open-access and transparent manner. The lack access to fine spatial granularity in social accounts is hindering our ability to understand economic growth, recovery, and income distribution across a spatially disparate nation. By enabling experiments and applications with replicable sets of cross-sectional and time-series accounts and general equilibrium models, this laboratory will allow new insights into the causes and nature of income growth across the nation, differences in income distribution across the nation, differences in wealth distribution across the nation, and measures of the economic interdependency of different regions on each other. Additional examples of the types of analysis that these accounts will make possible are the development of inter-disciplinary, integrated economic-hazard/disaster impact and recovery models, deep understanding of how forestry, agricultural and natural resource industry clusters contribute to the growth and resiliency of regional economies, the reconciliation of regional economic redevelopment and national economic development efforts, clearer understanding of the underlying relationships between current account activity and the accumulation of wealth and capital, and the ability to address regional and national economic growth, distribution, and trade policy which explicitly accounts for geographic differences across the nation. The goal of this project is to develop a transparent, open-access virtual laboratory (Tapestry) providing an array of in-situ data and analytic services, primarily in the form of Multi-Regional Social Accounting Matrices (MR-SAMs), that enables researchers, extension professionals, and policy makers to investigate at fine geographical resolution the inter-regional, inter-temporal, and inter-sectoral relationships that exist in county-level regional economies of the United States. Open-access to comprehensive, inter-temporal and detailed MR-SAMs of domestic US regional economies, and the methods used to derive them, have never been available to researchers and practitioners in a collaborative, open-access and transparent manner. The lack access to fine spatial granularity in social accounts is hindering our ability to understand economic growth, recovery, and income distribution across a spatially disparate nation. By enabling experiments and applications with replicable sets of cross-sectional and time-series accounts and general equilibrium models, this laboratory will allow new insights into the causes and nature of income growth across the nation, differences in income distribution across the nation, differences in wealth distribution across the nation, and measures of the economic interdependency of different regions on each other. Additional examples of the types of analysis that these accounts will make possible are the development of inter-disciplinary, integrated economic-hazard/disaster impact and recovery models, deep understanding of how forestry, agricultural and natural resource industry clusters contribute to the growth and resiliency of regional economies, the reconciliation of regional economic redevelopment and national economic development efforts, clearer understanding of the underlying relationships between current account activity and the accumulation of wealth and capital, and the ability to address regional and national economic growth, distribution, and trade policy which explicitly accounts for geographic differences across the nation.
Project Methods
Social AccountsSocial accounts are a set of data elements that track the monetary flows between industries and institutions within a region. A specific set of social accounts for the United States at the national level are the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA). NIPA are a comprehensive set of the economic transactions that take place in the national economy (Landefeld 2000). Prior to the development these accounts, little quantitative or systematic information was available for understanding the function and health the national economy. Credit for developing a systematic set of accounts is given to Nobel Laureates Richard Stone in the United Kingdom and Simon Kuznets in the United States. Dr. Kuznets reported the first set of national accounts to congress in 1937 and they have been at the core of U.S. economic analysis and policy ever since.In fact, Dr. Michael Boskin, former chair of the council of economic advisors has stated that, without the national income and product accounts, the U.S. would be stuck in an economic dark age (Landefeld 2000). Furthermore, Senator Paul Sarbanes, former ranking member on the Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs, states "The GDP accounts provide Congress and the rest of government with vital signs on our economy's health. We are making better economic policy today because the GDP accounts give us a better understanding of what policies work. We should devote more resources for modernizing the GDP accounts to keep our statistical infrastructure in step with our rapidly evolving economy." Krueger et al. (2007) called NIPA "arguably the foremost contribution of economics in the last century".A social accounting matrix (SAM) is essentially an integration of I-O accounts and income and product accounts. As Barnard (1967) notes, the concepts underlying flow-of-funds accounts, balance-of-payments statements, and national balance sheets are also integrated into a SAM. The essential features of the SAM is that it is defined and drawn up in such a way that connections between the various transactors of the economy can be traced. The SAM is designed for the specific analytical purpose of measuring the flows of goods and services among the various transactors within a region and between other regions. It embodies treatment of production in which several different classifications, each of which is appropriate to a particular part of the economy, are reconciled. In addition, investment - by producing industries, consumers' durable goods, and governments' social capital - is included. Also, the financial transactions among the various sectors of the economy are recorded, as well as those occurring in aggregate between resident institutions. SAMs make use of classification converters, which provide a means of looking at the sectors of the economy in the various roles they play in production, consumption, accumulation, and trade. Stone (1961) points out that classification converters provide an added dimension to a social accounting system - in particular that it enables us to deal with problems in their own context and to be quite open about the complexities of the real world that lead us to want several classifications.More recently, in response to the Great Recession of December 2007 - 2009 (BLS 2012), the United States again finds itself needing more detailed and sophisticated economic data to help understand the effects of the recession and how to recover from it. Specifically, the lack of regionally specific income and product data hampers our ability to understand how to recover across a spatially disparate nation. The Great Recession, while broad based, exhibited great variation across geographies. Nobel Lauriat Paul Krugman, among others, has voiced the need to look more closely at regional differences in economic data to more finely tune economic policy (Krugman 1991,, Fujita et al. 1999, Combes et al. 2008). Additionally, new insights from economic geography highlight the need to account for the interconnections between regions and the associated spatial interdependencies that arise.Interregional Trade AccountsExogenous final demand within a social accounting model for a sub-region is different than that for the region as a whole. This difference relates primarily to inter-regional trade that is outside the region at the regional level but inside at the higher level of regional aggregation. This outside-inside the region final demand distinction makes aggregating regional results to the national level problematic. A solution to this problem lies in a derivation of a multi-regional input-output model (Round, 1985).For example, a consolidated region with three inter-related sub-regions can be modeled by separating the export-import-transfer flows between them from their respective totals (see Figure 1). By so doing, each sub-region becomes an exogenous institution to the other sub-region with a column vector of exports & transfers and a row vector of imports and transfers to the other. At the same time this inter-sub-regional trade and transfers are endogenous to the consolidated region. We would expect three effects from a consolidated bi-regional model: those contained within each sub-region, those that feedback in a loop between regions and those that spillover (without feedback) from one to the other.Defourny and Thorbecke (1984) assert that embedded within each element of the inter-industry transactions matrix there exists an implicit set of supply chains connecting the flow of products and by-products from a sector of origin to a sector of destination. The challenge is to make these implicit supply chains explicit. To do this, they used a technique called structural path analysis and thereby proved their assertion. This technique uses a disaggregated cofactor element in an adjoint I-A matrix to determine the number and size of direct paths and path multipliers, for example, from agricultural production to food and fiber products for households.Koks et al. used a hybrid (linear and non-linear) multi-regional input-output model of Europe to estimate the continent-wide impacts of simulated floods in the Netherlands. Their results show that most regions are unaffected by the flood disaster. Those outside regions that are affected include those that benefit from increased demand for output for substitutes and constructions while those that suffer losses are the result of supply chain disruption. The net effect of these gains and losses depends on the size of the initial disaster. The indirect effects are positive for small disasters and negative for large ones.

Progress 06/01/19 to 05/31/23

Outputs
Target Audience:The target audience of this project are professional economists, data scientists, and policy analysts. This project developed data tools and analytic models to evaluate regional economies and estimate economic impacts. Changes/Problems:Covid presentednumerous challenges to this project, especially related to hiring students and programmers. This delayed the project considerably. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?In the course of this project, we have had the opportunity to meet with data experts at both the USDA and the BEA to discuss data improvements and methodologies to generate social accounting matrices. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?We have three websites that have been developed and advertised related to this project: 1) www.uidaho.edu/tapestry 2) https://tapestry.nkn.uidaho.edu 3) https://github.com/northwest-knowledge-network/tapestry-modeling The findings and data products have also been disseminated via interactions at academic meetings including the Southern Regional Science Association meetings, the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association meetings, and the North American Regional Science Association meetings. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? We have developed the methods and procedures to perform the following tasks related to the goals of this project: 1) developed the open source procedure and python code to unsuppress QCEW employment and wage data and USDA NASS agricultural data 2) developed the open source procedure and python code to generate gross flows social accounting matrices 3) developed the open source procedure and python code to rebalance social accounting matrices through a RAS algorithm 4)developed the open source procedure and python code to estimate total commodity supply and total commodity demand for 500 commodities and all 3142 counties in the United States 5)developed the open source procedure and python code to estimate commodity trade between every 3142 counties and every commodity using a gravity model 6)developed the open source procedure and python code to compile all of these datasets and use them to estimate complete social accounting matrices for each county in the United States.

Publications

  • Type: Websites Status: Published Year Published: 2023 Citation: https://www.uidaho.edu/cals/tapestry
  • Type: Websites Status: Published Year Published: 2023 Citation: https://tapestry.nkn.uidaho.edu/
  • Type: Websites Status: Published Year Published: 2023 Citation: https://github.com/northwest-knowledge-network/tapestry-modeling


Progress 06/01/21 to 05/31/22

Outputs
Target Audience:At this stage our target audience has been other economists and experts on regional economic data and analysis. After the data are vetted and refined, our target audience will shift to include practitioners of regional economics. Changes/Problems:Covid and Covid related difficulties in scheduling meetings and hiring computer programers has slowed progress a bit, but we are getting caught up and are making fast progress now. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Nothing Reported How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?We have decimiated the unsupressed QCEW estiamtes to other experts in regional economic data for them to vet and examine. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?We will be reconciling our QCEW data with the BEA data and incorporating the BEA's national make and use tables into our data. We will also be refining the trade model to estimate where output of each sector is used in a county by county matrix. Finally we will put all these peices togehter to create the social accounts and economic impact models for each county in the U.S.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? We are finished with the employment data estimates based on QCEW data and are moving to reconcuile these with the BEA data which include both wage/salary employment and self employment.

Publications


    Progress 06/01/20 to 05/31/21

    Outputs
    Target Audience:The target audience for this are regional economic professionals and practitioners. Changes/Problems:The COVID-19 pandemic has made collaborations and meetings more diffcult and has slowed the project down. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Nothing Reported How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?We have given talks at multiple professional conferences that have detailed the availability of this data. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?The next step is to use the QCEW data in conjunction with the National Income and Product Accoutns to populate the social accounts for each county that detail how dollars flow through a regional economy.

    Impacts
    What was accomplished under these goals? We built our databse of QCEW data which is th largest step in creating the Multi-regional SAM dataset.

    Publications


      Progress 06/01/19 to 05/31/20

      Outputs
      Target Audience:The target audience for this project is researchers and policy makers who are interested in evaluating the economic impacts of sectors and policies as well as researchers who are interested in how regional economies grow and develop. Changes/Problems:It took a little longer than we hoped to onboard a computer science expert to assist with the coding and database build process proceedures. However, we have made significant progress since getting the contract in place with the programmer. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Nothing Reported How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? Nothing Reported What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?In the next reporting period we will complete the regional social accounting matrices and finish the trade model that estimates the shipments of goods and services between every county in the U.S. We will also have the API complete that will allow colleagues to access and review the database.

      Impacts
      What was accomplished under these goals? We have completed the first stage in deveopling the database of the economic transactions that take place in each county in the U.S. We have also developed the build process that transforms each respective database into social accounting matricies.

      Publications