Progress 05/15/19 to 09/14/23
Outputs
Target Audience:Our target audience includes other scientists studying long run agricultural sustainability, public and private decision makers, as well as non-governmental organizations. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?SIMPLE-G short course at Purdue Materials developed under this project made significant contributions to the "Short Course in Multi-scale Analysis of Sustainability" that was offered in 2022 at Purdue. Thirteen participants from the US, Brazil, Australia and Europe completed four weeks (April 4-29) of self-guided online learning of the SIMPLE model and one week (May 2-6) of in-person training about SIMPLE-G model on Purdue campus to implement the models with applications and complete their own research project. SIMPLE short course in Brazil With the support of this project, Co-PI Villoria led a 4-week workshop at the Department of Economia, Administração, e Sociologia of the Universidad de Sao Paulo in Brazil. The workshop focused on using the SIMPLE model to model issues related to "Global Changes and the Challenges of Sustainably Feeding a Growing Planet." The workshop was attended by Ph.D. students and faculty and was deemed a success. Interdisciplinary Graduate Course PI Hertel taught an interdisciplinary graduate course at Purdue University during the spring semester. 24 participants from across campus learned how to use the SIMPLE model to address long run sustainability challenges. They also developed, and presented, their own project at the end of the semester. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Publications, a special issue of the interdisciplinary journal ERL, conference presentations, and short corurses have been effective for communicating our findings. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?
Nothing Reported
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
Objective 1: Estimate key model parameters and data inputs, including those pertaining to gridded land and water use, fertilizer inputs, and inter-regional trade. The primary objective of the task at Kansas State University was to estimate geographically explicit land supply elasticities to changes in agricultural cash rents at a resolution of 5 arc minutes or between 5500 and 7600 hectares depending on the latitude, for the contiguous US using panel data on land use and controlling for land quality attributes. After the data and estimation work previously reported, during this reporting period, we have focused on incorporating the estimated elasticities into the Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices, Land use, and the Environment, nicknamed SIMPLE-G, to gauge the elasticities' ability to reproduce observed changes in cropland within the context of an equilibrium model. A significant challenge in incorporating these elasticities is that the panel estimates reflect short-term, year-on-year adjustments. This is an econometric limitation of panel data methods, which exploit temporary deviations from trends. Despite this limitation, panel data allows controlling for unobserved heterogeneity across grid cells. This is crucial for this work as many indicators of land quality (e.g., soy fertility or slope) also determine land quality. Nevertheless, land supply elasticities depend on the considered time horizon: the longer the time horizon, the more scope for adjustment in the processes governing land use change, which would lead to expecting larger elasticities in the long run. SIMPLE is a long-run model. To adjust the short-run estimated elasticities to represent a long-term equilibrium, we have used information from previous literature to estimate asymptotic functions that allow projecting short-term land supply elasticities to a target horizon. The methodology preserves spatial heterogeneity in the short-run estimates. Preliminary research on the ability of scaled elasticities to reproduce long-term changes in US cropland is in progress. This work, along with an extension investigating the effects of eliminating the biofuel mandate on US cropland, was presented at the 2022 Annual Meetings of the AAEA (Anaheim, Ca. Aug 2, 2022). Objective 2: Evaluate the predictive ability of the model against historical spatial patterns of change in production, land and water use. We made significant headway on the model validation front in the context of two new publications in Environmental Research Letters. In the case of the SIMPLE-US-All crops model, we validated against county level data on land use change (Haqiqi et al., 2023). In the case of the SIMPLE-G-CornSoy model we focused on predictive ability with respect to crop output, land use and nitrogen fertilizer demand (Liu et al., 2023). These validation exercises were crucial for getting through the peer review process with reviewers from the physical sciences (hydrology and agronomy). Objective 3: Evaluate alternative strategies aimed at improving sustainability outcomes relating to land and water use in US agriculture at mid-century. We made great progress on this front by mobilizing 50 participants in our April, 2022 Conference on the Long Run Sustainability of US Agriculture. This NIFA-supported Conference involved six different panels -- each focusing on a different dimension of agricultural sustainability. These teams each produced an integrative paper, along with a set of applications of global-local-global analysis of sustainbility. The resulting special issue of Environmental Research Letters includes 13 papers and a synthesis paper led by PI Hertel (Hertel et al., 2023).
Publications
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Hertel, Thomas W., Elena Irwin, Stephen Polasky, and Navin Ramankutty. 2023. Focus on GlobalLocalGlobal Analysis of Sustainability. Environmental Research Letters 18 (10): 100201. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf8da.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Liu, Jing, Laura Bowling, Christopher Kucharik, Sadia Jame, Uris Baldos, Larissa Jarvis, Navin Ramankutty, and Thomas Hertel. 2023. Tackling Policy Leakage and Targeting Hotspots Could Be Key to Addressing the Wicked Challenge of Nutrient Pollution from Corn Production in the U.S. Environmental Research Letters 18 (10): 105002. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf727.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Lopez-Barrera, E. and T.W. Hertel, (2023) Solutions to the double burden of malnutrition also generate health and environmental benefits , Nature Food, (4):616-624. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-023-00798-7
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Haqiqi, I., Bowling, L. C., Jame, S. A., Baldos, U. L., & Liu, J. Hertel, T. W., (2023). Global Drivers of Local Water Stresses and Global Responses to Local Water Policies in the United States. Environmental Research Letters 18(6) 065007. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acd269
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Troy, Tara J., Laura C. Bowling, Sadia A. Jame, Charlotte I. Lee, Jing Liu, Chris Perry, and Brian Richter. 2023. Envisioning a Sustainable Agricultural Water Future across Spatial Scales. Environmental Research Letters 18 (8): 085003. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ace206.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Under Review
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Liu, Jing. 2023. "Nutrient Management and the Sustainability of Agriculture", Invited paper presented at the AAEA Annual meeting, Washington, D.C.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Haqiqi, Iman, 2023. "Quantifying the uncertainties in estimating the heterogeneous effects of carbon taxes on labor, land, water, and fertilizer use in US agriculture," 2023 Annual Meeting, July 23-25, Washington D.C. 335881, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association. https://mygeohub.org/resources/1683
|
Progress 05/15/22 to 05/14/23
Outputs
Target Audience:Our target audience includes other scientists studying long run agricultural sustainability, public and private decision makers, as well as non-governmental organizations. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?SIMPLE-G short course at Purdue Materials developed under this project made significant contributions to the "Short Course in Multi-scale Analysis of Sustainability" that was offered in 2022 at Purdue. Thirteen participants from the US, Brazil, Australia and Europe completed four weeks (April 4-29) of self-guided online learning of the SIMPLE model and one week (May 2-6) of in-person training about SIMPLE-G model on Purdue campus to implement the models with applications and complete their ownresearch project. SIMPLE short course in Brazil With the support of this project, Co-PI Villoria led a 4-week workshop at the Department of Economia, Administração, e Sociologia of the Universidad de Sao Paulo in Brazil. The workshop focused on using the SIMPLE model to model issues related to "Global Changes and the Challenges of Sustainably Feeding a Growing Planet." The workshop was attended by Ph.D. students and faculty and was deemed a success. Interdisciplinary Graduate Course PI Hertel taught an interdisciplinary graduate course at Purdue University during the spring semester. 24 participants from across campus learned how to use the SIMPLE model to address long run sustainability challenges. They also developed, and presented, their own project at the end of the semester. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Publications, a special issue of the interdisciplinary journal ERL,conference presentations, and short corurses have been effective for communicating our findings. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?We will continue to focus on model validation and parameterization, as well as publishing papers relating to the long run sustainability of US agriculture.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
Objective 1: Estimate key model parameters and data inputs, including those pertaining to gridded land and water use, fertilizer inputs, and inter-regional trade. The primary objective of the task at Kansas State University was to estimate geographically explicit land supply elasticities to changes in agricultural cash rents at a resolution of 5 arc minutes or between 5500 and 7600 hectares depending on the latitude, for the contiguous US using panel data on land use and controlling for land quality attributes. After the data and estimation work previously reported, during this reporting period, we have focused on incorporating the estimated elasticities into the Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices, Land use, and the Environment, nicknamed SIMPLE-G, to gauge the elasticities' ability to reproduce observed changes in cropland within the context of an equilibrium model. A significant challenge in incorporating these elasticities is that the panel estimates reflect short-term, year-on-year adjustments. This is an econometric limitation of panel data methods, which exploit temporary deviations from trends. Despite this limitation, panel data allows controlling for unobserved heterogeneity across grid cells. This is crucial for this work as many indicators of land quality (e.g., soy fertility or slope) also determine land quality. Nevertheless, land supply elasticities depend on the considered time horizon: the longer the time horizon, the more scope for adjustment in the processes governing land use change, which would lead to expecting larger elasticities in the long run. SIMPLE is a long-run model. To adjust the short-run estimated elasticities to represent a long-term equilibrium, we have used information from previous literature to estimate asymptotic functions that allow projecting short-term land supply elasticities to a target horizon. The methodology preserves spatial heterogeneity in the short-run estimates. Preliminary research on the ability of scaled elasticities to reproduce long-term changes in US cropland is in progress. This work, along with an extension investigating the effects of eliminating the biofuel mandate on US cropland, was presented at the 2022 Annual Meetings of the AAEA (Anaheim, Ca. Aug 2, 2022). Objective 2: Evaluate the predictive ability of the model against historical spatial patterns of change in production, land and water use. We made significant headway on the model validation front in the context of two publications -- one accepted and one under final review with Environmental Research Letters. In the case of the SIMPLE-US-All crops model, we validated against county level data on land use change. In teh case of the SIMPLE-G-CornSoy model we focused on predictive ability with respect to crop output, land use and nitrogen fertilizer demand. Objective 3: Evaluate alternative strategies aimed at improving sustainability outcomes relating to land and water use in US agriculture at mid-century. We made great progress on this front by mobilizing 50 participants in our April, 2022 Conference on the Long Run Sustainability of US Agriculture. This NIFA-supported Conference involved six different panels -- each focusing on a different dimension of agricultural sustainability. These teams each produced a synthesis paper, along with a set of applications of global-local-global analysis of sustainbility. The resulting special issue of Environmental Research Letters is now available online and we are in the process of drafting a synthesis paper.
Publications
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Johnson, David R., Nathan B. Geldner, Jing Liu, U.L.C. Baldos and Thomas W. Hertel. (2023) Reducing US Biofuels Requirements Mitigates Short-term Impacts of Global Population and Income Growth on Agricultural Environmental Outcomes , Energy Policy.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Haqiqi, Iman, Danielle S Grogan, Marziyeh Bahalou, Jing Liu, Uris L C Baldos, Richard Lammers, and Thomas W Hertel. (2023) Local, regional, and global adaptations to a compound pandemic-weather stress event , Environmental Research Letters.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2022
Citation:
S. Noia J�nior, Rogerio de, Frank Ewert, Heidi Webber, Pierre Martre, Thomas W. Hertel, Martin K. van Ittersum and Senthold Asseng (2022). Needed global wheat stock and crop management in response to the war in Ukraine , Global Food Security.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2022
Citation:
Haqiqi, Iman, Chris J. Perry & Thomas W. Hertel (2022) When the virtual water runs out: local and global responses to addressing unsustainable groundwater consumption, Water International, 47:7, 1060-1084
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Villoria, N., Liu, J., Haqiqi, I., Shourish Chakravarty, Delgado, M., Cisneros-Pineda, A., Hertel, T. (2023). Gridded Cropland Supply Elasticity for the Continental United States (5 arc-min Spatial Resolution). MyGeoHUB. doi:10.13019/37T9-0E88
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Haqiqi, I. (2023). A Gridded Dataset for Groundwater Sustainability Restriction Policy Scenarios for the Contiguous U.S.. MyGeoHUB. doi:10.13019/AHZR-4843
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Haqiqi, I., Bowling, L., Jame, S., Baldos, U. L., Liu, J., Hertel, T. (2023). A Gridded Price-Adjusted Quantity Index for Total Production of Crops for Irrigated and Rainfed Farms for the Contiguous U.S.. MyGeoHUB. doi:10.13019/RQ0D-JH17
- Type:
Other
Status:
Awaiting Publication
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Haqiqi, I., Baldos, U., Liu, J., Hertel, T. (2023). Gridded Farm Production Expenditures for irrigated and rainfed crop production in the US. MyGeoHUB.
- Type:
Other
Status:
Awaiting Publication
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Haqiqi, I. (2023). Gridded irrigation water supply elasticity for crop production in the US. MyGeoHUB.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Under Review
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Liu, Jing, Laura Bowling, Christopher Kucharik, Sadia Jame, Uris Baldos, Larissa Jarvis, Navin Ramankutty, and Thomas Hertel, 2023. "Multi-scale Analysis of Nitrogen Loss Mitigation in the US Corn Belt."
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Under Review
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Troy, Tara, Laura Bowling, Sadia A. Jame, Charlotte Lee, Jing Liu, Christopher Perry, and Brian Richter, 2023. Envisioning a sustainable agricultural water future across spatial scales.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Lobell, David B., and Nelson B. Villoria. 2023. Reduced Benefits of Climate-Smart Agricultural Policies from Land-Use Spillovers. Nature Sustainability, May, 18. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-023-01112-w.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Villoria, Nelson B., Alfredo Cisneros-Pineda, Iman Haqiqi, Shourish Chakravarty, Michael Delgado, and Thomas W. Hertel. 2022. Heterogeneous Land Supply Responses in US Agriculture: Exploring Changes in Land Use from Reductions in Biofuel Mandates. Selected Paper prepared for presentation at the 2022 Agricultural & Applied Economics Association, Annual Meeting, Anaheim, CA; July 31-August 2.
|
Progress 05/15/21 to 05/14/22
Outputs
Target Audience:Our target audience includes other scientists studying long run agricultural sustainability, public and private decision makers, as well as non-governmental organizations. Changes/Problems:We requested, and received, a no-cost extension of this project in order to permit us to hold the Conference at Purdue University and work towards the special issue of Environmental Research Letters. This will be a foundational set of papers on the topic of long run agricultural sustainability within a Global-Local-Global framework. We are also further refining the long run sustainaiblity analyses using the SIMPLE-G framework and planning for further dissemintation events. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?The Agricultural Sustainability Conference held at Purdue University, April 7-8, offered early career researchers on this project, as well as several others, the opportunity to engage with top researchers and policy makers from across the country. This has benefited their professional development as well as giving them ideas for future research. One of the early career research economists on this project had the opportunity to organize symposium session at the AAEA meetings. This was accepted and was a success. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?USDA-NIFA provided participant support which allowed us to host an important conference/workshop at Purdue University, April 7-8, on the theme of Global-to-Local-to-Global Analysis of Agricultural Sustainability. We hosted 24 individuals from off-campus, as well as an equal number from Purdue, and surrounding universities (IU, Notre Dame). This group of 48 researchers and policy makers were grouped into six panels covering: climate change, water, digitial agricultural, cyberinfrastructure, biodiversity and governance. Each panel featured 4 speakers and 4 discussants. After presentations and discussions on the first day, we turned to outlining synthesis papers on the second day of this workshop. These papers will be submitted to a special issue of Environmental Research Letters by August 15, with the goal of publication by the end of this year. We also organized a symposium session at the AAEA 2021 meetings in Austin, Texas at which members from our research team (Purdue and Kansas State Universities) as well as from other institutions (Penn State, ERS/USDA) presented their work and views on the determinants of inter-regional shifts in agricultural production within the Continental United States. This allowed for feedback from the panel and audience members on work to date, as well as ideas for future work. In addition, we co-organized an invited paper session at the 2021 meetings of the International Association of Agricultural Economists, focusing on fine-scale analysis of land use change and ecosystem degradation. Finally, we have organized a SIMPLE-G short course designed to introduce other research teams to our gridded modeling frameworks. We have 16 participants from the US, Europe, India and Brazil participating in the course, May 2-6, 2022. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Hertel and co-editors will be editing a special issue of Environmental Research Letters which will be covering the topics addressed by this grant. We expect publication by the end of 2022. Feedback from the AAEA and IAAE Symposia is being used to improve the land supply elasticities through work in three interrelated areas: Incorporating the estimated elasticities into the Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices, Land use and the Environment, nicknamed SIMPLE-G in order to gauge the ability of the elasticities to reproduce observed changes in cropland within the context of an equilibrium model. Depending on the findings in the previous step, adjusting the estimating equations to improve spatial prediction. Work is commencing on estimating long run supply elasticities. In addition, we will be refining our analyses of long term sustainability policies and planning for a national event -- potentially at the National Press Club - to engage with a wider community on issues of long run agricultural sustainability.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
A key objective of this project is to estimate geographically explicit land supply elasticities to changes in agricultural cash rents, at a resolution of 5 arc minutes or between 5500 and 7600 hectares depending on the latitude, for the contiguous US using panel data on land use and controlling for land quality attributes. After the data work in the previous reporting periods, during this reporting period, we have made significant advances estimating a complete set of land supply elasticities for each 5 arcminute gridcells in the eastern USDA's Farm Resource Regions, excluding the Range and Basin, Fruitful Rim, and Southern Seaboard regions. These elasticities capture the heterogeneous patterns of supply responses within the focus farm resource regions with limited supply response in the heart of the Corn Belt where all available land is already. On the fringes of the Corn Belt, in areas with more marginal lands, there is greater supply response. This is consistent with observed changes during the biofuel boom period. The elasticities are able to accurately predict observed changes in cropland during 2009-2017. In addition, we estimated key relationships governing irrigated agriculture, groundwater and surface water use in the US. This involved estimation of the potential for increasing irrigation efficiency in the wake of water shortages, as well as the supply function for groundwater abstraction. This allowed us to asses the impacts of growing groundwater scarcity in the US as well as overseas, on patterns of agricultural trade, land use and employment. We also further developed the SIMPLE-G modeling framework, allowing for improved analysis of policies aimed a mitigating nutrient runoff as well as limiting excessive groundwater extraction. By creating a workflow to allow for extraction of 'mini-models' with 12 - 20 grid cells out of 75,000+ agricultural grid cells across the US, we are also able to facilitate in depth analysis of conservation policies in specific locations.
Publications
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2021
Citation:
Golub, Alla, Iman Haqiqi, David Alber, Nelson Villoria, and Thomas Hertel. Determinants of inter-regional shifts in agricultural production in the United States. Agricultural & Applied Economics Association Annual Meeting, Austin, TX, August 1-3, 2021.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2021
Citation:
Haqiqi, Iman and Monireh Aqababaei, The Impacts of Technological Progress on GHG Emissions, Water Resources, and Land Use. Agricultural & Applied Economics Association Annual Meeting, Austin, TX, August 1-3, 2021.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2021
Citation:
Haqiqi, Iman and Marziyeh Bahalou, Assessment of COVID-19 Impacts Using the Immediate Impact Model of Local Agricultural Production (IMLAP). Agricultural & Applied Economics Association Annual Meeting, Austin, TX, August 1-3, 2021.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2022
Citation:
Fuglie, K.O., U.L.C. Baldos, S. Ray and T.W. Hertel. (2022) The R&D Cost of Climate Mitigation in Agriculture, Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2021
Citation:
Hertel, Thomas, Ismahane Elouafi, Morakot Tanticharoen and Frank Ewert (2021). Diversification for enhanced food systems resilience, Nature Food, November.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2021
Citation:
Lafferty, David C., Ryan L. Sriver, Iman Haqiqi, Thomas W. Hertel, Klaus Keller, and Robert E. 2021. Statistically bias-corrected and downscaled climate models underestimate the severity of U.S. maize yield shocks, Communications: Earth and Environment (2):196.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2021
Citation:
Baylis, Kathleen, Thomas Heckelei and Thomas W. Hertel. 2021. Agricultural Trade and Sustainability, Annual Review of Resource Economics, (16) https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-101420-090453.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2021
Citation:
Johnson, David J., Shanxia Sun, Andrew K. Huang and Thomas W. Hertel. 2021. Quantifying the greenhouse gas emissions abatement cost of biomass co?firing in coal?powered electricity generation, International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2021
Citation:
Chepeliev, Maksym, Alla Golub, Thomas W. Hertel, Wajiha Saeed, and Jayson Beckman. 2021. Disaggregating the vegetables, fruits and nuts sector to the tariff line in the GTAP-HS framework, Journal of Global Economic Analysis (6)1: 82-127.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2021
Citation:
Haqiqi, Iman, Alfredo Cisneros Pineda, Danielle S. Grogan, Jing Liu, and Thomas W. Hertel. Implications of water scarcity for land use and biodiversity in the presence of international agricultural trade. International Conference of Agricultural Economists. Virtual. August 17-31, 2021.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Under Review
Year Published:
2022
Citation:
Haqiqi, Iman, Chris Perry and Thomas Hertel. When the virtual water runs out: Local and global responses to unsustainable groundwater consumption. Under review.
|
Progress 05/15/20 to 05/14/21
Outputs
Target Audience:Our target audience includes other scientists studying long run agricultural sustainability, public and private decision makers, as well as non-govermental organizations. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?The post-doctoral fellow at Kansas State University completed his training and moved to a position at Purdue University in the Forestry and Natural Resources Department. At Purdue, the post-doctoral fellow refined his research and publication skills with several successful publications in the past year, along with research presentations and one press event. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?We made quite a few professional presentations of our gridded economic analysis of sustainability challenges facing US agriculture. Hertel's publication of piece on agriculture and the environment in The Conversation (https://theconversation.com/growing-food-and-protecting-nature-dont-have-to-conflict-heres-how-they-can-work-together-146069 ) was republished in a number of places and attracted more than 36,000 reads. Haqiqi participated in the AGU 2020. Press Roundtable: "The pandemic and implications for the world food supply". where he communicated with the press about the findings of the following work: Haqiqi et al. Environmental Stressors Can Intensify the Impacts of Pandemics on Earth's Natural Resources and Global Food Systems. GH023-05. American Geophysical Union, AGU Fall Meeting, 2020 What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?We are continue to place a high priority on the challenge of characterizing intra-regional trade (within the Continental US). This presents numerous challenges, including conceptual, data problems as well as empirical issues.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
Objective 1: Estimate key model parameters and data inputs, including those pertaining to gridded land and water use, fertilizer inputs, and inter-regional trade. The SIMPLE-g reference year is updated from 2010 to 2017 based on the 2017 Census of Agriculture and 2018 Census of Irrigation (Irrigation and Water Management Survey) and FAO regional information. Parameters governing water supply elasticities have been estimated for the US based on implicit value of water, surface water and groundwater withdrawals, and projected irrigation yield gaps. Parameters governing the ease of movement between cropland and conservation programs have been estimated for the US. Information on land use is included in the SIMPLE-G model including pasture land, forest, and land in conservation programs. Using crop yields and N fertilizer use data provided by the Agro-IBIS output, Liu updated the SIMPLE-G-US-CS model base data to reconcile the quantity and value of output at the local level. This update eliminates the abnormal yields and N fertilizer input price caused by using different data sources. We calibrated the non-land supply elasticity based on the land supply elasticity that was statistically estimated. The calibration of this parameter allows us to introduce some spatial heterogeneity into the parameterization of the gridded model when the site-specific estimation of the non-land supply elasticity is not available. This parameterization improvement turns out to be quite valuable on the computational side, because it allows more room for technological adjustment and thus avoids unrealistic local production response to global shocks. After comparing multiple agronomic studies, we adjusted the experimental design for the wetland restoration strategy by recalculating the acreage of wetland that is needed to intercept N loss from all the corn-soy growing area. This step provided us with a more precise estimation of the area of cropland to be retired from agricultural production for conservation purposes. It also affected the total mitigation possibly provided by wetland restoration. We assembled the trade data necessary to validate the model with respect exports, by USDA production region over the period: 1995-2020. A comprehensive effort to estimate spatially heterogeneous land supply elasticities to US crop agriculture was undertaken based on newly obtained data on agricultural cash rents for the contiguous US using panel data. This involved a number of steps: Data limitations force us to focus on the eastern US Farm Resource Regions: In a second step, we use a fractional Probit model to explain observed gridcell cropland shares as a function of the predicted grid-cell log land rents from step 1. We exploit the fact that the marginal effects of the Probit model are grid-cell specific to predict unique elasticities for each gridcell in the Eastern US. We developed methods to evaluate the accuracy and reasonableness with which the estimated elasticities are able to reproduce actual (observed) changes in land use. We commenced work on a version of the model in which we study adaptation of US agriculture to changes in long term trends in precipitation and temperature through both the effects on land rents and on cropland shares. We initiated conversations with the ERS to obtain finer-than-county data on CRP enrolment in order to improve our understanding of the places in the US where CRP is the most important alternative use.
Publications
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2020
Citation:
Baldos, U.L.C, I. Haqiqi, T.W. Hertel, J.M. Horridge and J. Liu (2020) SIMPLE-G: A Multiscale Framework for Integration of Economic and Biophysical Determinants of Sustainability , Environmental Modelling and Software vol. 133(November):1-14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104805
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2020
Citation:
Hertel, Thomas W., and Cicero Z. de Lima (2020) Viewpoint: Climate Impacts on Agriculture: Searching for Keys under the Streetlight. Food Policy, 95(August):1-12, 101954. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2020.101954 .
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2020
Citation:
Diffenbaugh, N. S. et al. (2020) The COVID-19 lockdowns: a window into the Earth System. Nat. Rev. Earth Environ. 1(July):470-481. https://doi:10.1038/s43017-020-0079-1
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2020
Citation:
Hertel, T.W. and U.L.C. Baldos and K.O. Fuglie. (2020) Trade in Technology: A Potential Solution to the Food Security Challenges of the 21st Century , European Economic Review 127(August):1-20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2020.103479
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2020
Citation:
Haqiqi, I., & Horeh, M. B. (2021). Assessment of COVID-19 impacts on US counties using the immediate impact model of local agricultural production (IMLAP). Agricultural Systems, 190, 103132. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103132
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2021
Citation:
Haqiqi, I., Hertel, T., Bowling, L. C., Jame, S. A., Baldos, U., & Liu, J. (Forthcoming). Global Drivers of Local Water Stresses and Global Responses to Local Water Policies, Journal of Water Resources Development.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2021
Citation:
Lima, Cicero Z., Jonathan R. Buzan, Frances C. Moore, Uris Lantz C. Baldos, Matthew Huber, and Thomas W. Hertel. 2021. Heat Stress on Agricultural Workers Exacerbates Crop Impacts of Climate Change , Environmental Research Letters 16 044020 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abeb9f
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2020
Citation:
Hertel, Thomas W. (2020) Educating the Next Generation of Interdisciplinary Researchers to Tackle Global Sustainability Challenges: A Graduate Course. Applied Economics Teaching and Research, 2(6):25-39.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2020
Citation:
Seppelt, Ralf, Channing Arndt, Michael Beckmann, Emily A. Martin, and Thomas W. Hertel. 2020. Deciphering the BiodiversityProduction Mutualism in the Global Food Security Debate. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 35(11)1011-1020. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2020.06.012
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Progress 05/15/19 to 05/14/20
Outputs
Target Audience:Our target audience includes other scientists studying long run agricultural sustainability, public and private decision makers, as well as non-govermental organizations. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?The post-doc at Kansas State University has been trained in the processing of geosptially explicit economic data and has undertaken cutting edge econometric analysis of land use change using these data. The post-doc at Purdue has focused on finalizing the SIMPLE-G model and undertaking applications related to irrigation and water scarcity. He has also been learning how to publish! Not an easy task, but he is making good progress, with 4 papers currently under review. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?We have published a review of global to local to global analysis of land use change in keeping with the overall focus on this project. We ahve also finalized the SIMPLE-G model and documentation and submitted it for publication. We will be making four presentations at the annual meetings of the AAEA this summer, along with two presentations at the upcoming Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?We are now focusing heavily on the challenge of characterizing intra-regional trade (within the Continental US). This involves a combination of model re-specification and new econometric estimation.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
We have published a review of global to local to global analysis of land use change in keeping with the overall focus on this project. We ahve also finalized the SIMPLE-G model and documentation and submitted it for publicationand we have now used a new, high resolution data set to estimate grid-cell specific cropland supply elasticities for the continental United States. We have also improved the parameterization of the irrigation demand and supply relationships and begun to explore possible adaptations to water scarcity in the Western US. Finally, we have reworked the nitrogen demaand data base in order to permit improved analysis of measures aimed a mitigatiing nutrient leaching and degradation of water quality.
Publications
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2020
Citation:
Lopez-Barrera, E. and T.W. Hertel, (2020) Global food waste across the income spectrum: Implications for food prices, production and resource use , Food Policy https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2020.101874
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2020
Citation:
Birgit M�ller, Falk Hoffmann, Thomas Heckelei, Christoph M�ller, Thomas W. Hertel, J. Gareth Polhill, Mark van Wijk, Thom Achterbosch, Peter Alexander, Calum Brown, David Kreuer, Frank Ewert, Jiaqi Ge, James D.A. Millington, Ralf Seppelt, Peter H. Verburg, Heidi Webber (2020) Modelling Food Security: Bridging the Gap between the Micro and the Macro Scale , Global Environmental Change https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102085
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2019
Citation:
Baldos, Uris L.C., Thomas W. Hertel, and Frances Moore, (2019). Understanding the Spatial Distribution of Welfare Impacts of Global Warming on Agriculture and its Drivers , American Journal of Agricultural Economics 101(5):14551472. https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aaz027
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2019
Citation:
Hertel, Thomas W., Thales West, Jan Boerner and Nelson Villoria, 2019. A Review of Global-Local-Global Linkages in Economic Land-use/cover Change Models Environmental Research Letters 14 053003, https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab0d33
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2020
Citation:
Hertel, T.W. and U.L.C. Baldos and K.O. Fuglie. (2020) Trade in Technology: A Potential Solution to the Food Security Challenges of the 21st Century , European Economic Review (forthcoming) and NBER Working Paper 27148, http://www.nber.org/papers/w27148
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Under Review
Year Published:
2020
Citation:
U. L. C. BALDOS, I. HAQIQI, T. HERTEL, M. HORRIDGE and J. LIU (2020).
SIMPLE-G: A Multiscale Framework for Integration of Economic and Biophysical Determinants of Sustainability, under review with Environmental Modeling and Software.
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