Source: COLORADO SCHOOL OF MINES submitted to NRP
ANALYSIS OF NUTRIENT FLOW FROM FARM TO GLOBE USING AGRICULTURAL SOIL WATER SUSTAINABILITY EVALUATION (ASWSE) FRAMEWORK
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
COMPLETE
Funding Source
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
1018581
Grant No.
2017-67019-29105
Cumulative Award Amt.
$497,000.00
Proposal No.
2018-04813
Multistate No.
(N/A)
Project Start Date
Oct 1, 2018
Project End Date
Apr 30, 2022
Grant Year
2019
Program Code
[A1401]- Foundational Program: Soil Health
Recipient Organization
COLORADO SCHOOL OF MINES
(N/A)
GOLDEN,CO 80401
Performing Department
Civil and Environ Eng
Non Technical Summary
The overarching goal of this project is to develop a multi-spatial-scale framework to better enable technology and policy analysis for nutrient management to produce more agricultural products using agricultural soil water sustainability evaluation (ASWSE) framework. Our framework will improve the understanding of sustainable production of agroecosystems while retaining needed ecosystems services. The proposed Agricultural Soil Water Sustainability Evaluation (ASWSE) Framework developed herein will bridge previously disparate modeling approaches to nutrient management, including local fate and transport modeling, nutrient input-output analysis at the watershed and national scale, regional environmental impact assessment (e.g. global warming, eutrophication, acidification, smog), and national and global resources scarcity. The proposed ASWSE framework will enable an improved understanding on the impacts of nutrients in the regional, national, and global context. The ASWSE framework developed herein will enable long-range improvement in and sustainability of U.S. agriculture and food systems. A scenario analysis of state, federal, and international biofuel policies will aid decision makers in understanding the impacts of biofuel policies on nutrient scarcity, global warming, eutrophication, acidification, smog and aid in prioritizing technology and management solutions. This study will create a bridge between nutrient consumption practices and nutrient management solutions from small technological solutions to global impacts in an effort to minimize environmental burdens caused by the increase in nutrient consumption associated with agricultural production.
Animal Health Component
80%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
10%
Applied
80%
Developmental
10%
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
1120399205040%
1330399202040%
6100399205020%
Goals / Objectives
This research will develop a multi-spatial-scale framework to better enable technology and policy analysis for nutrient management to produce more agricultural products using agricultural soil water sustainability evaluation (ASWSE) framework. Our framework will improve the understanding of sustainable production of agroecosystems while retaining needed ecosystems services. The ASWSE developed herein will bridge previously disparate modeling approaches to nutrient management, including local fate and transport modeling, regional nutrient input-output analysis, regional environmental impact assessment (e.g. eutrophication potential and global warming), and national and global resources scarcity.This research will link nutrient recovery, reuse, and control technologies to regional and national impacts resulting from nutrient consumption and evaluate issues of nutrient availability and scarcity at the national and global scale. Finally, we will use policy scenario analysis and life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate the impacts of policies and agricultural management strategies. The specific objectives to be achieve through this project are to:Develop and integrate stochastic N & P models and metrics with GHG emission guidelines from managed soils that easily can integrate into LCA and are spatially explicit and agriculturally relevantCreate estimates of nutrient flows and P scarcity within domestic consumption and international trade for commodities as well as manufactured food productsAssess the implications and potential for a range of control technologies, management strategies, and policies.
Project Methods
This project consists of modeling efforts and policy/outreach/dissemination efforts, each of which have different methods.Modeling:We will use three modeling approaches that individually address nutrient flows at different scales, but when combined enable us to estimate nutrient impacts from 'farm to globe'. The data inventory created by our county to watershed level 'Net Anthropogenic Nitrogen and Phosphorous Input' (NANI/NAPI) models will simultaneously provide estimates of spatially-explicit environmental impacts related to N & P flows and provide data to the 'National Multi-regional input-output life cycle analysis' (MRIO-LCA model). Similarly, the NANI/NAPI and MRIO-LCA models will provide data for the global nutrient flow analysis that we will create using material flow analysis (MFA) methods. This bridge between county-level data and national to global accounting tools brings a much needed spatial estimation to LCA models in addition to enabling agricultural models such as NANI/NAPI to estimate large-scale systemic socio-economic-environmental impacts.Policy analysis, Outreach, & Dissemination:We will utilize the model framework to conduct scenario analysis of policies and nutrient management strategies with the aim of evaluating nutrient impacts and scarcity due to human activities. Scenarios will be created from the benchmarks or targets set forth in existing or proposed policies and the impacts of achieving the biofuel policy goals will be assessed within the framework. We will also evaluate a range of control strategies from farm (e.g. installation of wetland buffers around farms and watersheds) to food commodity 'end-of-life' (e.g. the use of nutrient recovery and recycle technologies at wastewater treatment facilities) in a similar manner. Finally, we will conduct workshops to both vet and validate the framework with stakeholders. The research team will collect both written and verbal feedback from the participants, which will be used to 1) improve the framework before final release and 2) generate more ideas for new scenarios.

Progress 10/01/18 to 04/30/22

Outputs
Target Audience:The target audiences for the commodity- and sector-specific nutrient flux modeling research are farmers, consumers, policymakers, and other groups who make decisions about agricultural production and related incentives. In addition, this research was disseminated to scholarly audiences through conferences, special collaborative sessions, workshops, and research seminars with diverse participants to student audiences of a wide range of demographics through many courses at Clemson, Mizzou, PSU, Northwestern University, and Mines. Project findings have also been disseminated by presenting at a Union of Concerned Scientists gathering. This research reached scholarly audiences at international level through collaboration with researchers from the University of Bologna, Italy. Our collaborative work assessed the impacts of food consumption and wastage, including the nutritional characteristics, through a case study in a school canteen in Columbia, Missouri, US. The Commodity-Specific Net Anthropogenic Phosphorus and Nitrogen Inputs (CSNAPNI) model we developed is being used by other USDA funded projects and researchers around the globe. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Graduate students funded by this grant have mentored both high school and undergraduate interns. Graduate students also participated in professional development through weekly research group meetings, science communication workshops, conference attendances, and outreach activities. They also gathered experiences by volunteering for special sessions at conferences. Others opportunity includes internship to support farmers interested in improving water quality. Undergraduate student professional development included learning research skills and career advancement skills. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Research findings from this work were disseminated to scholarly audiences (e.g., students, faculty, and professionals) through conference oral and poster presentations and special sessions. Several publications from this project helped share research findings with scientists and researchers across many disciplines. More manuscripts are under review, submitted, or in progress. Research outcomes were disseminated to student audiences of a wide range of demographics through many courses at Clemson, Mizzou, PSU, Northwestern University, and Mines. Project PIs also shared the research through seminar presentations on different occasions with diverse participants. Students in k-12 programs are impacted through outreach activities. Graduate students disseminated research to high school and undergraduate interns. As a results of this award and its activities, we also developed new collaborations on these topics with researchers at EPA, Purdue, and CO State University. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? The project resulted in many journal publications, presentations, classroom experiences, and discussions. The research team developed CSNAPNI to include ethanol production, enable commodity-specific analyses, and to include data from the 2017 US agricultural census. This work has enabled joint analysis of virtual nutrient impacts of animal food systems and corn-ethanol-related nutrient impacts in the United States. We also built an updated phosphorus materials flow analysis (MFA) for the US and estimated the potential of existing nutrient management strategies to reduce net nutrient inputs in the United States. A summary of our major activities and results for each objective: Objective 1: Develop and integrate stochastic N and P models with GHG emission guidelines from managed soils that easily can integrate into LCA and are spatially explicit and agriculturally relevant. 1) Major activities completed / experiments conducted We enhanced the NANI/NAPI models to enable commodity specific estimates of N and P flows and logic to account for the expansion of the ethanol industry; via this work we developedthe 'Commodity-Specific Net Anthropogenic Nitrogen and Phosphorus Inputs (CSNAPNI)' model (available on github: https://github.com/malgren/CSNAPNI). This model tracks virtual N and P inputs to agricultural products, accounting for corn use in ethanol production and the use of ethanol feed coproducts in animal diets for the year 1997-2017. In another significant update, the CSNAPNI model accounts for mineral P supplementation in animal diets. This work enables joint analysis of virtual nutrient impacts of animal food systems and corn ethanol related nutrient impacts in the United States. It can be used for commodity and watershed-specific nutrient and GHG footprinting. We have been refining and improving documentation for the CSNAPNI model, and more outputs were added to the model with the request of model users. 2) Data collected. Used publicly available data from US Census, USDA ERS, NASS, and GATS databases. 3) Summary statistics and discussion of results Results shows that virtual N attributable to ethanol fuel was 30 to 35 g N per liter of ethanol. As ethanol coproduct inclusion in animal diets increased from 1997 to 2012, N per kilogram of beef protein decreased by 19% and N per kilogram of milk protein decreased by 13%. Also, results from assessing the contributions of individual feed products and mineral P supplements to the embodied P of animal products show that P supplements may contribute up to 30% of embodied P in pork and dairy products, up to 60% in chicken, and up to 75% in turkey. Results also show that animal P intake is such a significant driver of anthropogenic phosphorus that a reduction of animal P intake by 25% could reduce NAPI to the contiguous United States by 30%. 4) Key outcomes or other accomplishments realized These models can be used for commodity and watershed-specific nutrient and GHG footprinting. Analyses of nutrient impacts of integrated food (meats) and fuel (ethanol) production systems demonstrate that, although virtual nutrient inputs to beef and dairy are reduced, nutrient inputs to the expanded meat production system and ethanol fuel production increased from 1997-2012. Objective 2: Create estimates of nutrient flows and P scarcity within domestic consumption and international trade for commodities as well as manufactured food products. Major activities completed / experiments conducted; We analyzed P MFA for the 2012 and 2017 data to understand P scarcity. We integrated the Commodity Specific Net Anthropogenic Nitrogen and Phosphorous Inputs (CSNAPNI), with an environmentally extended input-output life cycle assessment (EEIO-LCA) model that links N&P flows from agricultural-based commodities to manufactured foods. This approach enabled estimation of N&P embodied in manufactured foods and food loss in the supply chain. 2) Data collected; P MFA studies used publicly available data from USGS Mineral Commodities Summaries for Phosphate Rock, USGS fertilizers sales data, USDA, USDA ERS, USGS Minerals Yearbook 2017, CSNAPNI model and EPA Used publicly available benchmark (IO) input-output tables from BEA for the EIO-LCA 3) Summary statistics and discussion of results The results of this modeling effort indicate that the fertilizer and fixation N inputs required for beef and dairy production have decreased from 1987-2012 by 19 and 13%, respectively, primarily due to the allocation of virtual N inputs between ethanol fuel and ethanol feed coproducts. The model also shows that Mississippi River Watershed-wide U.S. fertilizer N inputs have increased by almost 30% since 1987, primarily as a result of increased corn production for ethanol fuel. Results from EIO-LCA work show that 18% of each N&P fertilizer applied, 15% of the N fixed by N-fixing crops, and 20% of P supplements are associated with food loss (FL). Grains are the precursors to many food sectors, and 58% of N fertilizer embodied in FL is primarily from the grain sector. The use of oilseeds as vegetable oils in the food manufacturing sectors accounts for 38% of total embodied N in FL. The result also shows that the P supplements comprise a large portion of embodied P in animal and animal-derived food sectors. 4) Key outcomes or other accomplishments realized The P MFA provides the latest estimates of P flows in the US for 2012 & 2017. This study also identifies the current sources and magnitudes of P losses from the US economy and discusses associated management options. The EIO-LCA work quantified embodied N & P in commodities and manufactured foods and food loss. This work also provides opportunities to see how economic transactions by different sectors are linked to driving nutrients nationally, ultimately affecting the ecosystems. The findings from this study can help identify needed changes from production to consumption at the national level. Objective 3: Assess the implications and potential for a range of control technologies, management strategies, and policies 1) Major activities completed / experiments conducted; We assessed the potential of existing N and P loss mitigation strategies (e.g., precision fertilizer application, manure management, animal diet change, wastewater-recovered P utilization, and food loss mitigation) to reduce net N&P inputs to the US. Our collaboration with the CSU Water Quality Group produced LCAs for filter strips, buffer strips, grassed waterways, and minimal tillage practices. The strategies assessed are those that have the potential to reduce demand for new P mining; these include variable rate fertilizer (VRF) application, improvements to P digestibility for animals, efficient utilization of manure and wastewater treatment (WWT) P, and elimination of avoidable food waste. 2) Data collected Most data is from the CSNAPNI model; data on VRF, P digestibility, and P recovery from wastewater treatment plants are sourced from published literature. Summary statistics and discussion of results The largest contributions toward eliminating NAPI can come from efficient manure utilization either at the national (30 to 50% NAPI reduction) or county-level (21 to 30% NAPI reduction). However, widespread adoption of VRF (10 to 41% NAPI reduction), and all other strategies considered (5% or greater NAPI reductions each) could make significant contributions. Combining management strategies induced several negative feedbacks. VRF reduced demand for fertilizer, thereby reducing the potential for manure and WWT utilization at the county level. 4) Key outcomes or other accomplishments realized The N&P loss mitigation studies will produce changes in knowledge/new knowledge, and changes in condition as results may inform policy recognized credits associated with implementation of various BMPs, especially in Colorado as the Nutrients Management Control Regulation (Regulation 85) takes effect in 2022.

Publications


    Progress 10/01/21 to 04/30/22

    Outputs
    Target Audience:Farmers, consumers, policymakers, and other groups who make decisions about agricultural production and related incentives are the primary audiences for the nutrient accounting modeling outputs. Results have also been continuously shared through publications. Efforts include: A manuscript has been published in JIE this reporting period, and another has been submitted since the last reporting period in the same journal. Also, two more manuscripts have been submitted recently in two different journals. Students at Penn State and Colorado School of Mines participate(d) in coursework informed by our efforts. Dr. Mikaela Algren gave a guest lecture on agricultural sustainability titled "Agricultural Sustainability: Environmental Impacts and Resource Scarcity Challenges" at Northwestern University's Introduction to Sustainability: Challenges and Solutions (ISEN 210) Course. Specifically, Dr. Costello has included preliminary results in the following courses to students at Penn State: Introduction to Life Cycle Assessment. Students in k-12 programs in Pennsylvania and Colorado have been impacted through outreach activities. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Graduate students participate in professional development activities through weekly research group meetings. Postdocs supported integrating findings from this research into undergraduate classes. Post docs gave guest lectures at Mines and other institutions on this research. Postdocs mentored grad and undergrad researchers. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?We have published an article in the Journal of Industrial Ecology and another manuscript is under peer review in the same journal. Manuscripts were also submitted to the journal Resource, Conservation & Recycling' and 'Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability.' Dr. Mikaela Algren gave a guest lecture on agricultural sustainability titled "Agricultural Sustainability: Environmental Impacts and Resource Scarcity Challenges" at Northwestern University's Introduction to Sustainability: Challenges and Solutions (ISEN 210) Course. Students at Penn State participate in coursework informed by our efforts. Specifically, Dr. Costello has included preliminary results in the course for students at the University of Missouri: Introduction to Life Cycle Assessment and Sustainability for Engineering. Students in k-12 programs in Pennsylvania and Colorado are impacted through outreach activities. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

    Impacts
    What was accomplished under these goals? This research enables consumers, farmers, and policymakers to understand how environmental impacts associated with nutrient use in agriculture relate to our daily lives through the foods and goods that we consume. We have focused on integrating models that quantify flows of N and P at the scales of economic sectors, individual products, and the environment so that we can understand how changes in human systems (e.g., location of production, production processes, markets for N-and-P-containing products) will affect N and P emissions to the environment. We have developed a U.S.-county-scale N and P input models (Commodity-Specific Net Anthropogenic Phosphorous and Nitrogen Input, CSNAPNI) that enables commodity-specific tracking of N and P inputs to products over time, for each agricultural census year 1997-2017. We have also combined these models with an input-output life cycle assessment model, which will enable us to link the N and P inputs associated with food production to nutrient impacts associated with consumption of manufactured food products. The research team developed CSNAPNI to include ethanol production, enable commodity-specific analyses, and include data from the 2017 US agricultural census. This work has enabled joint analysis of virtual nutrient impacts of animal food systems and corn-ethanol-related nutrient impacts in the United States. The graduate student at Mines (with undergraduates they have advised) has also built an updated phosphorus materials flow analysis (MFA) for the US and estimated the potential of existing nutrient management strategies to reduce net nutrient inputs in the United States. The Paper is under review for this work. Drs. Costello and Landis provide technical input to assist students in all aspects of their work and professional development, e.g., preparing for conference presentations. Objective 1: Develop and integrate stochastic N and P models with GHG emission guidelines from managed soils that easily can integrate into LCA and are spatially explicit and agriculturally relevant. 1) Major activities completed / experiments conducted; In this reporting period, we refined and improved documentation for the Commodity-Specific Net Anthropogenic Nitrogen and Phosphorus Inputs (CSNAPNI) model (available on GitHub: https://github.com/malgren/CSNAPNI). At the request of model users, more default county-level outputs were added to the model. This model tracks virtual N and P inputs to agricultural products, accounting for corn use in ethanol production and feed coproducts in animal diets. Also, a few minor bugs have been fixed. We are constantly providing feedback to questions that model users have. 2) Data collected. CSNAPNI model: Data sourced from US Census and USDA ERS, NASS, and GATS databases. 3) Summary statistics and discussion of results & 4) Key outcomes or other accomplishments realized The CSNAPNI model can be used for commodity- and watershed-specific nutrient and GHG footprinting. The completion of this can be considered a change in action--we have built a tool with what we have learned, enhancing how we research in this space. The modeling work from this objective also enables integration with EIO-LCA to estimate the N&P embodied in commodities, manufactured food, and food loss, the MFA, and management strategy analyses conducted for Objective 3. Objective 2: Create estimates of nutrient flows and P scarcity within domestic consumption and international trade for commodities as well as manufactured food products. 1) Major activities completed / experiments conducted; Under this objective, the CSNAPNI model was used to assess the embodied P in animal products and the impacts of animal diets on net P inputs to the US. During this reporting period, a manuscript titled "Phosphorus (P) in animal diets as a driver of embodied P in animal products and net anthropogenic P inputs." was published in the Journal of Industrial Ecology. A P materials flow analysis (MFA) for the US was conducted for 2017 and 2012, and the results were compared to previously published US P MFAs for 2007. In addition, the manuscript titled "Quantifying phosphorus flows in the United States to identify the major contributors to loss and opportunities for improvement" was submitted during this reporting period and is in the peer-review process for the Journal of Industrial Ecology. 2) Data collected. EIO-LCA model: Used publicly available data; The Commodity-by-Commodity matrix is used in this analysis, and it was derived using the most recently available 2012 benchmark (IO) input-output tables from BEA. This will be made available through publication. 3) Summary statistics and discussion of results Finally, through this work, we estimated the embodied N&P and GHG emissions ranges from (1-90 grams N)/$, (0.1-9 grams P) /$, and (50-2341 grams CO2e)/$, respectively, for the food manufacturing sectors [Note: including the primary production sectors would change the range]. Demands from the food manufacturing sectors drive these flows; for example, personal consumption expenditures range from 289 Million to 68 Billion USD. 4) Key outcomes or other accomplishments realized Changes in knowledge, action, or condition: This work has produced new knowledge. We believe this work will interest researchers, modelers, policymakers, and consumers interested in addressing nutrient depletion, pollution, and its impacts on food security and the economy in the US from a system perspective. In addition, the work may change in condition as this study can help identify needed changes from production to consumption at the national level. For example, identifying foods with intensely embodied nutrients and increasing consumer awareness of those products may incentivize behavior change toward less nutrient-intensive foods. The P MFA model estimated the total P flows at the national level for 2012 & 2017. These estimates will help find the most effective P management strategies. Objective 3: Assess the implications and potential for a range of control technologies, management strategies, and policies 1) Major activities completed / experiments conducted; Work was completed to assess the potential of existing P loss-mitigation strategies (e.g., precision fertilizer application, manure management, animal diet change, wastewater-recovered P utilization, and food loss mitigation) to reduce net P inputs to the US last reporting period. The manuscript detailing this work was submitted to the 'Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability journal. During this reporting period, work has been underway to assess the potential of existing N loss-mitigation strategies (e.g., precision fertilizer application, manure management, and food loss mitigation) to reduce net N inputs to the US. A manuscript detailing this work is in preparation. [Check with Dr. Chris] 2) Data collected; The CSNAPNI model provides the baseline estimates for the analysis. 3) Summary statistics and discussion of results and 4) Key outcomes or other accomplishments realized Effective manure management is the key to reducing the net anthropogenic Phosphorus inputs (NAPI) at different scales (National, county levels). Improvement in P digestibility can also significantly affect the overall reduction of NAPI. However, Other technologies investigated demonstrated better reduction potentials.

    Publications

    • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2022 Citation: Z. U. M. Chowdhury, Algren, M., A. E. Landis and C. Costello. Embodied Nitrogen and Phosphorous in food loss through the US economy. Submitted to the Resource, Conservation & Recycling Journal
    • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2022 Citation: Algren, M., T. T. Burke, Z. U. M. Chowdhury, C. Costello and A. E. Landis. Assessing phosphorus loss mitigation strategies to reduce net anthropogenic phosphorus inputs in the United States. Submitted to the Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Journal
    • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2022 Citation: Algren, M., T. T. Burke, Z. U. M. Chowdhury, C. Costello and A. E. Landis. Quantifying phosphorus flows in the United States to identify the major contributors to loss and opportunities for improvement. In review with Journal of Industrial Ecology.
    • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2022 Citation: Algren, M., Costello, C., Landis, A.E. Phosphorus (P) in animal diets as a driver of embodied P in animal products and net anthropogenic P inputs. J Ind Ecol. 2022; 26: 1123 1135. https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.13251
    • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2021 Citation: Algren, Mikaela (Embargoed until April 2023). Opportunities and Strategies to Improve the Sustainability of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Use [Doctoral dissertation, Colorado School of Mines]. ProQuest Dissertations Publishing.


    Progress 10/01/20 to 09/30/21

    Outputs
    Target Audience:The target audiences for the commodity- and sector-specific nutrient flux modeling research are farmers, consumers, policymakers, and other groups who make decisions about agricultural production and related incentives. We have presented work or parts of this work to peers at several conferences since the previous reporting period: International Symposium for Sustainable Systems and Technology (ISSST 2021). A manuscript has been published in ES&T this reporting period, and another has been submitted since the last reporting period. Students at Penn State and Colorado School of Mines participate(d) in coursework informed by our efforts. Specifically, Dr. Costello has included preliminary results in the following courses to students at Penn State: Introduction to Life Cycle Assessment. Students in k-12 programs in Pennsylvania and Colorado have been impacted through outreach activities. In the last reporting period, graduate students funded by this grant have also mentored 3 undergraduate students, 2 of whom worked on projects focused on combating food waste and food insecurity on the Mines campus. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Graduate students funded by this grant have mentored both high school and undergraduate interns. Graduate students also participate in professional development activities through weekly research group meetings, and conference attendance. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? We have presented work or parts of this work to peers at several conferences since the previous reporting period and have submitted additional manuscripts for peer review. Students at Penn State and Colorado School of Mines participate in coursework informed by our efforts. Specifically, Dr. Costello has included preliminary results in the following courses to students at the University of Missouri: Introduction to Life Cycle Assessment and Sustainability for Engineering. Students in k-12 programs in Pennsylvania and Colorado are impacted through outreach activities. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Goal 1: Develop and integrate stochastic N and P models with GHG emission guidelines from managed soils that easily can integrate into LCA and are spatially explicit and agriculturally relevant. Complete. Goal 2: Create estimates of nutrient flows and P scarcity within domestic consumption and international trade for commodities as well as manufactured food products. In the next reporting period, we will update estimates of embodied N & P in individual manufactured food products by employing MRIO (Multi-regional Input-Output) technique to quantify the amount of N & P exported from and imported to the U.S. via trade. We will submit the manuscript on the P materials flow analysis (MFA) research for the US and a USEEIO manuscript on food loss. Goal 3: Assess the implications and potential for a range of control technologies, management strategies, and policies The manuscript assessing the potential of established P-loss mitigation strategies to reduce US net anthropogenic phosphorus inputs will be submitted for publication.

    Impacts
    What was accomplished under these goals? This research enables consumers, farmers, and policy-makers to understand how environmental impacts associated with nutrient use in agriculture relate to our daily lives through the foods and goods that we consume. We have focused on integrating models that quantify flows of N and P at the scales of economic sectors, individual products, and the environment so that we can understand how changes in human systems (e.g., location of production, production processes, markets for N-and-P-containing products) will affect N and P emissions to the environment. We have developed a U.S.-county-scale N and P input models (Commodity-Specific Net Anthropogenic Phosphorous and Nitrogen Input, CSNAPNI) that enables commodity-specific tracking of N and P inputs to products over time, for each agricultural census year 1997-2017. We have also combined these models with an input-output life cycle assessment model, which will enable us to link the N and P inputs associated with food production to nutrient impacts associated with consumption of manufactured food products. The research team developed CSNAPNI to include ethanol production, enable commodity-specific analyses, and to include data from the 2017 US agricultural census. This work has enabled joint analysis of virtual nutrient impacts of animal food systems and corn-ethanol-related nutrient impacts in the United States. The graduate student at Mines (with undergraduates they have advised) has also built an updated phosphorus materials flow analysis (MFA) for the US and estimated the potential of existing nutrient management strategies to reduce net nutrient inputs in the United States. Papers are in preparation for this work. The graduate student at Penn State incorporated data from CSNAPNI into an EIO-LCA framework. A summary of our major activities and results for each objective: Objective 1: In this reporting period, we refined and improve documentation for the Commodity-Specific Net Anthropogenic Nitrogen and Phosphorus Inputs (CSNAPNI) model (available on Github: https://github.com/malgren/CSNAPNI). At the request of model users, more default county-level outputs were added to the model. This model tracks virtual N and P inputs to agricultural products, accounting for corn use in ethanol production and the use of ethanol feed coproducts in animal diets. Key outcomes or other accomplishments realized: The CSNAPNI model can be used for commodity- and watershed-specific nutrient and GHG footprinting. The completion of this can be considered a change in action--we have built a tool with what we've learned, and the tool enhances the way we do research in this space. The modeling work from this objective also enables both the MFA and management strategy analyses conducted for Objective 3. Objective 2: Under this objective, the CSNAPNI model was used in this reporting period to assess the embodied P in animal products and the impacts of animal diets on net P inputs to the US. A manuscript on this work is submitted and in review. Also in this reporting period, a P materials flow analysis (MFA) for the US was conducted for 2017 and compared to that for 2012, and previous P MFA publications from 2007. A manuscript on this work is in preparation. Key outcomes or other accomplishments realized: Under this objective, this work has produced quantifications of embodied N & P in commodities and manufactured foods, as well as food loss. This work also provides opportunities to see how economic transactions by different sectors are linked to driving nutrients nationally which ultimately affect the ecosystems. This information will be useful in changing things from production to consumption as well as waste management. Such results can also be utilized for estimating N & P footprints of manufactured foods. Footprint is useful in creating awareness and altering one's behavior to reduce the environmental burden. Current footprints are limited to commodities. Objective 3: During this reporting period, work to assess the potential of existing P loss-mitigation strategies (e.g., precision fertilizer application, manure management, animal diet change, wastewater-recovered P utilization, and food loss mitigation) to reduce net P inputs to the US was completed. A manuscript detailing this work is in preparation. During this reporting period, work to assess the potential of existing N loss-mitigation strategies (e.g., precision fertilizer application, manure management, and food loss mitigation) to reduce net N inputs to the US has been underway. A manuscript detailing this work is in preparation. Key outcomes or other accomplishments realized: The largest contributions toward eliminating NAPI can come from efficient manure utilization either at national (30 to 50% NAPI reduction) or county-level (21 to 30% NAPI reduction). However, widespread adoption of VRF (10 to 41% NAPI reduction), and all other strategies considered (5% or greater NAPI reductions each) could make significant contributions. Combining management strategies induced several negative feedbacks. VRF reduced demand for fertilizer, thereby reducing the potential for manure and WWT utilization at the county-level. P digestibility improvements in poultry and swine diets reduced recoverable manure by 36%. While this decreased the total manure P that could be used to replace mined P fertilizer in both the national and county-level combination scenarios. it also reduced county-level excess manure by 25%.

    Publications

    • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2021 Citation: Algren, M., A. E. Landis and C. Costello (2021). "Estimating Virtual Nitrogen Inputs to Integrated U.S. Corn Ethanol and Animal Food Systems." Environmental Science & Technology.
    • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2021 Citation: Assessing the potential of phosphorus (P) loss mitigation strategies to eliminate both net anthropogenic phosphorus inputs (NAPI) and mineral P demand in the United States. International Symposium on Sustainable Systems and Technology (ISSST) 2021. June 21-25, 2021. Virtual presentation.
    • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2021 Citation: "OPPORTUNITIES AND STRATEGIES TO IMPROVE THE SUSTAINABILITY OF NITROGEN AND PHOSPHORUS USE" Mikaela Algren, thesis 2021, Colorado School of Mines


    Progress 10/01/19 to 09/30/20

    Outputs
    Target Audience:The target audiences for the commodity- and sector-specific nutrient flux modeling research are farmers, consumers, policymakers, and other groups who make decisions about agricultural production and related incentives. We have presented work or parts of this work to peers at several conferences since the previous reporting period:International Congress on Sustainability Science and Engineering(ICOSSE), The Northeast Agricultural and Biological Engineering Conference (NABEC 2020)and American Center for Life Cycle Assessment (ACLCA). We have alsosubmitted a manuscriptto be considered for journal publication since the last reporting period.Students atMizzou,Penn State,and Colorado School of Mines participate(d)in coursework informed by our efforts.Specifically, Dr. Costello has included preliminary results in the following courses to students atPenn State:Introduction to Life Cycle Assessment.Students in k-12 programs in Missouri, Pennsylvania,and Coloradohave beenimpacted through outreach activities.In the last reporting period, graduate students funded by this grant have also mentored4undergraduatestudents, 2ofwhomare working on projects focused on combating food waste and food insecurity on the Mines campus. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Graduate students funded by this grant have mentored both high school and undergraduate interns.Graduate students also participate in professional development activities through weekly research group meetings, and conference attendance. Graduate students have also been able to attend several conferences: American Center for Life Cycle Assessment (ACLCA), International Conference on Sustainability Science and Engineering (ICOSSE), and Northeast Agricultural and Biological Engineering Conference (NABEC). How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? We have presented work or parts of this work to peers at several conferences since the previous reporting period (American Center for Life Cycle Assessment (ACLCA), International Conference on Sustainability Science and Engineering (ICOSSE), NortheastAgricultural and Biological Engineering Conference(NABEC))and have submitted a manuscript for peer review. Students at University of Missouri(now Penn State)and Colorado School of Mines participate in coursework informed by our efforts. Specifically, Dr. Costello has included preliminary results in the following courses to students at the University of Missouri: Introduction to Life Cycle Assessment and Sustainability for Engineering. Students in k-12 programs in Missouri(now Penn State)and Colorado are impacted through outreach activities. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Goal 1: Develop and integrate stochastic N and P models with GHG emission guidelines from managed soils that easily can integrate into LCA and are spatially explicit and agriculturally relevant. In the next reporting period, we will evaluate opportunities for implementingstochasticmodeling and other error analysismethods. Goal 2: Create estimates of nutrient flows and P scarcity within domestic consumption and international trade for commodities as well as manufactured food products. In the next reporting period, we will create estimates ofembodied N & P inindividual manufactured food products. Also, we will be employing MRIO (Multi-regional Input-Output) technique to quantify theamount of N & P exported from and imported to the U.S. via trade. We will also beusing P MFA results to create P scarcitycharacterization factors for LCA. Goal 3: Assess the implications and potential for a range of control technologies, management strategies, and policies We will assess the potential of established P-lossmitigation strategies(manure management, cover cropping, food waste reduction, diet change, wastewater processes, etc.)to meet P water quality goals and improve the longevity of US P supplies. Where N-lossmitigationpotential of the samestrategiescan be assessed concurrently withP-loss mitigationpotential,N-loss mitigation potential will also be quantified.

    Impacts
    What was accomplished under these goals? This researchenables consumers, farmers, and policy-makers to understand how environmental impacts associated with nutrient use in agriculture relate to our daily lives through the foods and goods that we consume.We havefocused on integrating modelsthatquantify flows of N and Pat the scales ofeconomic sectors,individual products, andtheenvironment so that we can understand how changes in human systems (e.g., location of production, production processes, markets for N-and-P-containing products) will affect N and P emissions to the environment.We have developedaU.S.-county-scale N and P input models (Commodity-Specific Net Anthropogenic Phosphorousand NitrogenInput,CSNAPNI)thatenablescommodity-specific tracking of N and P inputsto productsover time, for each agricultural census year 1997-2017.We have alsocombinedthese modelswith an input-output life cycle assessment model,which will enableus to link the N and P inputs associated with food production to nutrient impacts associated with consumption of manufactured food products. The research team developed CSNAPNI to include ethanol production,enable commodity-specific analyses, and to include data from the 2017 US agricultural census. This work has enabled joint analysis of virtual nutrient impacts of animal food systems and corn-ethanol-related nutrient impacts in the United States. Graduate students at Mines (with undergraduates they have advised) are also building an updated phosphorus materials flow analysis (MFA) for the US and the rest of the world (RoW) to be used for developing a P scarcity metric in LCA tools, and working to determine thepotential ofexistingnutrient management strategiesto accomplish nutrient management goals such as the EPA's goal for reduction of the hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico.Preliminary resultsof the work done at Mineswere presented at ICOSSE 2020 and ACLCA 2020.Graduate student at Penn State (Formerly Mizzou)incorporated data from CSNAPNIinto an EIO-LCA framework. The EIO-LCA model provides information inclusive of all the sectors in the supply-chain without truncation of system boundaries and identified how N and P flows through the economy in terms of production and consumption perspectives. The graduate studentsalso quantified N and P flows as well as GHGs emission in food loss by utilizingUSDA's Loss-Adjusted Food Availability (LAFA) data and sector-wise GHGs emissions intensity factors i.e. kilograms of CO2equivalents per dollar of industry output adopted from the GHGs emissions satellite table of EPA's USEEIO model.Quantifications of nutrients in commodities, manufactured foods as well as food loss inform how economic transactions by different sectors are linked to driving nutrients nationally which affect the ecosystems. Preliminary results presented in ACLCA 2020 and NABEC 2020. The team at Penn State currently working on approximating N and P in manufactured food products at the national level, the knowledge that is lacking. In doing so, the team is gathering data from IBISWorld, and U.S. BLS.One of the graduate students from the Mizzou team is also recognized as a contributor on the EPA's EIO-LCA model available inGitHub. This student's work enabled correction of the model's LCIA factor for NOx, and identification of a discrepancy with the manure production and an overestimation of NOx emissions due to a problem with an R function (as.numeric). Both of the identified issues have been resolved by developers in the updated version (V1.1). Drs. Costello and Landis provide technical input to assist students in all aspects of their work as well as assisting with professional development, e.g., preparing for conference presentations. This work will enable people whose lives may feel far-removed from agriculture and other nutrient-intensive production systems to connect their daily consumption habits to N and P cycle disruption by attributing (primarily agricultural) nutrient inputs and impacts to familiar products. Specifically, our results will enable development of tools to educate the general public and policymakers about N and P footprints, and the effects of N and P cycle disruption.Additionally, this work will produce results informing on-farm practicesthat can be used to minimize nutrient losses to the environment. A summary of our major activities and results for each objective: Objective1: Develop and integrate stochastic N and P models with GHG emission guidelines from managed soils that easily can integrate into LCA and are spatially explicit and agriculturally relevant. Finished the Commodity-Specific Net Anthropogenic Nitrogen and Phosphorus Inputs (CSNAPNI) model (available ongithub: https://github.com/malgren/CSNAPNI). This model tracks virtual N and P inputs to agricultural products, accounting for corn use in ethanol production and the use of ethanol feed coproducts in animal diets. This reporting period, the CSNAPNI model was modified to account for mineral P supplementation in animal diets, and 2017 census data was processed and added to the model. This work enables joint analysis of virtual nutrient impacts of animal food systems and corn-ethanol-related nutrient impacts in the United States. The results of this work are addressed under goal 2. The models work and can be used for commodity- and watershed-specific nutrient and GHGfootprinting. The completion of this can be considered a change in action--we have built a tool with what we've learned, and the tool enhances the way we do research in this space. Objective2: Create estimates of nutrient flows and P scarcity within domestic consumption and international trade for commodities as well as manufactured food products. Estimated embodied N and P for agricultural commodities and corn ethanol with CSNAPNI results, and for the total US consumption (which includes all US economic sectors) through the linking of CSNAPNI model and the USEEIO model. A P materials flow analysis (MFA) for the US was conducted for 2012. Changes in knowledge, action, or condition: Because we're still in the preliminary stages of research, this work has produced only new knowledge. Quantifications of embodied N & P in commodities, manufactured foods as well as food loss offer an opportunity to see how economic transactions by different sectors are linked to driving nutrients nationally which ultimately affect the ecosystems. This information will be useful in changing things from production to consumption as well as waste management. Such results can also be utilized for estimating N & P footprints of manufactured foods. Footprint is useful in creating awareness and altering one's behavior to reduce the environmental burden. Current footprints are limited to commodities. Objective3: Assess the implications and potential for a range of control technologies, management strategies, and policies Planned work to assess the potential of existing N and P loss-mitigation strategies (like precision fertilizer application and manure management) to meet water quality goals and improve the longevity of US P supplies. This work will produce changes in knowledge/new knowledge, and changes in condition as results may inform policy decisions about which management practices should be pursued to meet environmental N and P goals. This work may also produce changes in action as it motivates additional research on promising mitigation strategies.

    Publications

    • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Algren, Mikaela; Christine Costello; Amy E. Landis. Quantifying virtual P inputs to agricultural commodities, including corn ethanol. International Congress on Sustainability Science and Engineering. August 3-5, 2020.
    • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Algren, Mikaela; Tierra Tisby Burke; Zia Uddin Md Chowdhury; Christine Costello; Amy E. Landis. Quantifying phosphorus flows in the United States to assess scarcity impacts and opportunities to improve management. American Center for Life Cycle Assessment 2020 Virtual Conference. September 22-24, 2020.
    • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Zia Uddin Md Chowdhury; Algren, Mikaela; Amy E. Landis; Christine Costello. Estimating embodied nitrogen and phosphorus flows for food loss in the US economy. American Center for Life Cycle Assessment 2020 Virtual Conference. September 22-24, 2020.
    • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Zia Uddin Md Chowdhury; Algren, Mikaela; Amy E. Landis Christine Costello. Combining nutrient accounting tools with input-output life cycle assessment for estimating nitrogen and phosphorus flows in the US economy. The Northeast Agricultural and Biological Engineering Conference (NABEC) 2020 Virtual Conference. Poster. July 26-29, 2020.


    Progress 10/01/18 to 09/30/19

    Outputs
    Target Audience: The target audiences for the commodity- and sector-specific nutrient flux modeling research are farmers, consumers, policymakers, and other groups who make decisions about agricultural production and related incentives. We have presented work or parts of this work to peers at several conferences since the previous reporting period (Environmental Science and Technology (ES&T), LCA Food, Association of Environmental Engineering and Science Professors (AEESP), and American Center for Life Cycle Assessment (ACLCA)) and have submitted a manuscript for peer review. Dr. Costello has presented at a gathering for the Union of Concerned Scientists. Students at University of Missouri and Colorado School of Mines participate in coursework informed by our efforts. Specifically, Dr. Costello has included preliminary results in the following courses to students at the University of Missouri: Introduction to Life Cycle Assessment and Sustainability for Engineering. Students in k-12 programs in Missouri and Colorado are impacted through outreach activities. In the last reporting period, graduate students funded by this grant have also mentored both high school and undergraduate interns, participated in collaborative work with Colorado State University to support farmers interested in improving water quality of field runoff, and attended science communication workshops. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Graduate students funded by this grant have mentored both high school and undergraduate interns, participated in internships with Colorado State University to support farmers interested in improving water quality of field runoff, and attended science communication workshops. Graduate students also participate in professional development activities through weekly research group meetings, and conference attendance. The Mines and Mizzou teams also collaborated with others in the field to host a Special Session for at ACLCA 2018 on "Challenges and Opportunities for Regional Nutrient Accounting in Life Cycle Assessment" for attending students, faculty, and professionals. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? We have presented work or parts of this work to peers at several conferences since the previous reporting period (Environmental Science and Technology (ES&T), LCA Food, Association of Environmental Engineering and Science Professors (AEESP), and American Center for Life Cycle Assessment (ACLCA)) and have submitted a manuscript for peer review. The Mines and Missou teams collaborated with others in the field to host a Special Session for at ACLCA 2018 on "Challenges and Opportunities for Regional Nutrient Accounting in Life Cycle Assessment" for attending students, faculty, and professionals. Dr. Costello has presented at a gathering for the Union of Concerned Scientists. Students at University of Missouri and Colorado School of Mines participate in coursework informed by our efforts. Specifically, Dr. Costello has included preliminary results in the following courses to students at the University of Missouri: Introduction to Life Cycle Assessment and Sustainability for Engineering. Students in k-12 programs in Missouri and Colorado are impacted through outreach activities. In the last reporting period, graduate students funded by this grant have also mentored both high school and undergraduate interns, and participated in collaborative work with Colorado State University to support farmers interested in improving water quality of field runoff. Dr. Costello presented at the College of Engineering Research Seminar, Mizzou on March 8, 2019, and shared the research findings and ongoing project activities with diverse participants. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? No problems were encountered in this reporting period. Goal 1: Develop and integrate stochastic N and P models with GHG emission guidelines from managed soils that easily can integrate into LCA and are spatially explicit and agriculturally relevant. The modified NANI has GHG emissions factors (N2O and CH4) for crops and for meat products (based on manure management, enteric fermentation, and crops in the diet). These capabilities will be used in future analyses. Emissions estimations for the following GHGs are available in USEEIO model: CO2, CH4, N2O, HFC-23, HFC-32, HFC-125, HFC-134a, HFC-143a, HFC-152a, HFC-227ea, HFC-236fa, HFC-4310mee, CF4, C2F6, C4F10, C6F14, SF6 and NF3. Emissions for each GHG are estimated for each BEA/NAICS sector per dollar output. The primary source for total emissions is the USEPA GHG Inventory for the year 2013. These capabilities will be used in future analyses. Linking the commodity-specific NANI/NAPI model with a steady state watershed nutrient retention and coastal nutrient export model and atmospheric emissions models is underway. Evaluate opportunities for implementing stochastic methods. Evaluate opportunities for integrating NANI/NAPI into LCA. Goal 2: Create estimates of nutrient flows and P scarcity within domestic consumption and international trade for commodities as well as manufactured food products. Estimation of nutrient flows associated with not only commodities and manufactured food products, but also all other US economic sectors is currently underway through the linking of commodity-specific NANI/NAPI models and the USEEIO model. This will enable estimation of the N & P physically embodied in as well as inputs during production for food commodities and manufactured food products. Also, the nitrogen impacts of various diet scenarios and the nitrogen impacts that correspond to food loss will be quantified. We will make progress toward producing phosphorus scarcity indicators for use in LCA that account for P recycling/renewal rates and estimate losses from economically viable P stores instead of depletion (i.e., deaccumulation). Goal 3: Assess the implications and potential for a range of control technologies, management strategies, and policies We will produce preliminary nutrient-focused LCAs of filter strip, buffer strip, grassed waterway, and minimal tillage practices in collaboration with the Water Quality Group at CSU.

    Impacts
    What was accomplished under these goals? Our work enables consumers, farmers, and policy-makers to understand how environmental impacts associated with nutrient use in agriculture relates to our daily lives through the foods and goods that we consume. Many people find it challenging to connect to agricultural systems as the majority of the populations live in urban areas. The Net Anthropogenic Nitrogen/Phosphorous Inputs (NANI/NAPI) tool, modified to track commodity-specific N inputs, combined with an input-output life cycle assessment model enables us to link production to consumption. Using the version of the NANI tool we have modified to track commodity-specific N inputs, including those of ethanol and coproducts, we've modeled changes in virtual N inputs to animal food products over time as ethanol coproducts made increasing contributions to animal diets. We've also modeled Mississippi River Watershed-wide N inputs occurring with the growth of ethanol production in the United States. The results of this modeling effort indicate that the fertilizer and fixation N inputs required for beef and dairy production have decreased from 1987-2012 by 19 and 13%, respectively, primarily as a result of allocation of virtual N inputs between ethanol fuel and ethanol feed coproducts. The model also shows that Mississippi River Watershed-wide U.S. fertilizer N inputs have increased by almost 30% since 1987, primarily as a result of increased corn production for ethanol fuel. Goal 1: Develop and integrate stochastic N and P models with GHG emission guidelines from managed soils that easily can integrate into LCA and are spatially explicit and agriculturally relevant. 1) Major activities completed / experiments conducted; Modified the Net Anthropogenic Nitrogen and Phosphorus Inputs (NANI and NAPI) models to include ethanol production and enabled commodity-specific analyses in the NAPI model. This work enabled joint analysis of virtual nutrient impacts of animal food systems and corn-ethanol-related nutrient impacts in the United States. The result of this work are addressed under goal 2. 2) Data collected; Used publicly available data from US Census and USDA ERS, NASS, and GATS databases. 3) Summary statistics and discussion of results The feasibility of animal diet modeling methods was evaluated by comparing the total mass of each crop type allocated to animals in the model to the quantity of the same crop that's available for consumption by domestic animals. The sum of modeled allocations to animals for each crop was 70-81% of the corresponding quantity produced for animals for forage crops and 89-101% for grain crops for the model years between 1997 and 2012. We considered this to be an acceptable result with wastage assumptions. Modeled total fertilizer inputs to the Mississippi River Watershed and to the United States were validated through comparison to county-scale USGS fertilizer sales data (Brakebill 2017). The fertilizer sales totals were greater than the modeled commodity-specific fertilizer N totals from the NANI model by approximately 20, 20, 15, and 30% in 1997, 2002, 2007, and 2012, respectively. Because NANI does not track all US agricultural production, this difference was considered acceptable. 4) Key outcomes or other accomplishments realized The models work and can be used for commodity- and watershed-specific nutrient and GHG footprinting. The completion of this can be considered a change in action--we have built a tool with what we've learned, and the tool enhances the way we do research in this space. Goal 2: Create estimates of nutrient flows and P scarcity within domestic consumption and international trade for commodities as well as manufactured food products. 1) Major activities completed / experiments conducted; Estimated nutrients flows (Nitrogen) for the total US consumption which includes all US economic sectors through the linking of commodity-specific NANI/NAPI models and the USEEIO model. 2) Data collected; Used publicly available data through US 2007 Benchmark from BEA which inflated to 2013 in USEEIO 3) Summary statistics and discussion of results Using the version of the NANI tool we have modified to track commodity-specific N inputs, including those of ethanol and coproducts, we've modeled changes in virtual N inputs to animal food products over time as ethanol coproducts made increasing contributions to animal diets. We've also modeled Mississippi River Watershed-wide N inputs occurring with the growth of ethanol production in the United States. The results of this modeling effort indicate that the fertilizer and fixation N inputs required for beef and dairy production have decreased from 1987-2012 by 19 and 13%, respectively, primarily as a result of allocation of virtual N inputs between ethanol fuel and ethanol feed coproducts. The model also shows that Mississippi River Watershed-wide U.S. fertilizer N inputs have increased by almost 30% since 1987, primarily as a result of increased corn production for ethanol fuel. We mapped nitrogen input data from the NANI model to IO economic sectors that are the origin point for N entering ecosystems. For example, fertilizer applied to corn in NANI is mapped to the Fresh wheat, corn, rice, and other grains sector (aka, the Grain Farming sector). NANI data were compared to EPA nitrogen data and, as expected, are similar in magnitude. The integration between NANI and USEEIO enables estimation of N impacts for manufactured foods and all other goods and services. We have also estimated the nitrogen impacts that correspond to food loss at retail and consumer level in the USA. Results indicate that "food, beverage, and tobacco" aggregated sector appears to be most N demanding and down the hierarchy, meat-based products such as "packaged meat" contributed higher in this category. Also, the amount of N associated with food loss from a systemwide perspective highlighted. 4) Key outcomes or other accomplishments realized Changes in knowledge, action, or condition: Because we're still in the preliminary stages of research, this work has produced only new knowledge. Analyses nutrient impacts of integrated food (meats) and fuel (ethanol) production systems demonstrate that, although virtual nutrient inputs to beef and dairy are reduced, nutrient inputs to the expanded system of meat production and ethanol fuel production increase from 1997-2012. NANI + USEEIO modeling results indicate that "food, beverage, and tobacco" aggregated sector appears to be most N demanding and down the hierarchy, meat-based products such as "packaged meat" contributed higher in this category. Also, the amount of N associated with food loss from a systemwide perspective highlighted. Goal 3: Assess the implications and potential for a range of control technologies, management strategies, and policies 1) Major activities completed / experiments conducted; Internship with Water Quality Group at Colorado State University to aid in construction, installation, and lab work for edge of field monitoring. Started a collaboration with the CSU Water Quality Group to produce LCAs for filter strip, buffer strip, grassed waterway, and minimal tillage practices. 2) Data collected; N/A - project is in literature review stage 3) Summary statistics and discussion of results and N/A - this goal is in literature review stage 4) Key outcomes or other accomplishments realized This work will produce changes in knowledge/new knowledge, and changes in condition as results may inform policy-recognized credits associated with implementation of various BMPs, especially in Colorado as the Nutrients Management Control Regulation (Regulation 85) takes effect in 2022.

    Publications

    • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Algren, M.*, Landis, A., and C. Costello. Demonstration of Enhanced Net Anthropogenic Nitrogen Input Models for Estimating Commodity-specific Agricultural Nitrogen Flows. International Conference on Environmental Science and Technology. June 25-29, 2018. Houston, Texas, USA.
    • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: C. Costello, S. Gautam, A. Landis, M. Algren, J. Devkota, and P. Eranki. Same Problem, Different Resolution: Case studies in evaluating sustainability at different spatial and temporal resolutions. International Symposium on Sustainable Systems and Technologies (ISSST). June 26-29, 2018. Buffalo, NY, USA.
    • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Algren, M., Landis, A., C. Costello, P. Eranki. Demonstration of enhanced net anthropogenic nitrogen inputs (NANI) model for estimating watershed-specific agricultural nitrogen flows. 11th International Conference on Life Cycle Assessment of Food. October 17-19, 2018. Bangkok, Thailand.
    • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Niblick, B.; Costello, C.; Algren, M; Bare, J. C.; Compton, Jana E. ; Eranki, P. L.; Golden, Heather E.; Hawkins, T. R.; Henderson, A. D.; Morelli, B.; Xue, X.; Landis, A. E. (2018). Challenges and Opportunities for Regional Nutrient Accounting in Life Cycle Assessment. Proceedings of LCA XVIII Conference of the American Center for Life Cycle Assessment. September 25-27, 2018. Fort Collins, Colorado, USA.
    • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Chowdhury, ZUM; Algren, M.; Landis, A. E.; Costello, C. (2019). Merging NANI With Input-Output Life Cycle Assessment Model For Tracking And Evaluating The Impacts Of Nutrients From A System Perspective. LCA XIX Conference of American Center for Life Cycle Assessment. September 24-26, 2018. Tucson, Arizona, USA.
    • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Algren, M.; Landis, A. E.; Eranki, P.; Costello, C. (2018). Demonstration of an enhanced Net Anthropogenic Nitrogen Inputs (NANI) model for estimating commodity-specific and system-wide agricultural nitrogen flows. Poster presentation. LCA XVIII Conference of the American Center for Life Cycle Assessment. September 25-27, 2018. Fort Collins, Colorado, USA.
    • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Algren, M.; Landis, A. E.; Costello, C. (2019). Effects of a growing ethanol industry on nitrogen inputs to the U.S. agricultural system. Poster presentation. Association of Environmental Engineering and Science Professors (AEESP) Research and Education Conference. May 14-16, 2019. Tucson, Arizona, USA.