PLACE-BASED WEBGIS DECISION SUPPORT TOOL TO ENHANCE FOREST MANAGEMENT AND PROMOTE CARBON EMISSIONS REDUCTION IMPLEMENTATION IN NEW JERSEY

• Sponsoring Institution: National Institute of Food and Agriculture
• Project Status: COMPLETE
• Funding Source: MCINTIRE-STENNIS
• Reporting Frequency: Annual
• Accession No.: 1017945
• Project Start Date: Oct 26, 2018
• Project End Date: Sep 30, 2021
• Program Code: [(N/A)]- (N/A)

Recipient Organization
RUTGERS, THE STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW JERSEY
3 RUTGERS PLZA
NEW BRUNSWICK,NJ 08901-8559

Performing Department
Ecology, Evolution & Natural Resources

Non Technical Summary
Land use and climate change are affecting the health and viability of New Jersey's forest resources. Reduced canopy cover in our urban areas whether due to the conversion of remaining undeveloped forested open space or loss of street and yard trees has possible negative implications for such ecosystem services as local climate resiliency (i.e. heat island effects) and downstream water quality (due to increased runoff). Increasing temperatures and frequency of extreme events (storm and drought) may affect urban and rural forest alike, leading to increased pest, disease, invasive species and storm damage. Changing climate is expected to result in range shifts in tree species with cascading effects on the community composition of our urban and rural forests. Mitigating the negative impact of these driving factors is a local decision-making challenge and is going to require site-specific remedies.In response, we have developed the NJForestAdapt web-based interactive map and visualization tool to facilitate natural resource managers and land use "decision-makers" (i.e., government agency, non-governmental organization personnel and forest land-owners) in accessing and understanding relevant geographic information concerning New Jersey's forest resources and strategies for adapting to a changing environment. We propose to build on this platform to expand the capability of the tool in response to the user community's request for additional data and functionality. In particular, we propose to develop the decision support functions to support New Jersey's recent re-entry into the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI). The proposed project intends to expand and further customize the NJADAPT forest tool to provide for location specific data to implement the forest stewardship, local government planning, and carbon offset provisions anticipated under New Jersey's re-entry into RGGI. This expansion will have utility not only for New Jersey, but is translatable for the region (currently with respect to offsets) and certainly for other states that may consider the forest stewardship-type provisions that New Jersey has in its statutes.

Animal Health Component

100%

Research Effort Categories

Basic

(N/A)

Applied

100%

Developmental

(N/A)

Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)	Subject of Investigation (SOI)	Field of Science (FOS)	Percent
124	0699	1070	100%

Knowledge Area
124 - Urban Forestry;

Subject Of Investigation
0699 - Trees, forests, and forest products, general;

Field Of Science
1070 - Ecology;

Keywords

forest resources

resiliency

climate change

decision support tools

energy demand reduction

Goals / Objectives
Our broader goal is to promote management and adaptation strategies to enhance the long term resilience of New Jersey's forests undergoing land use and climate change. Our objectives are to develop a web-based geospatial information portal that facilitates the dissemination and integration of New Jersey-centric forest resource information and supports the development of forest stewardship, state forest land management, forest carbon offset projects, enhanced forest stewardship plans that consider climate change, and reduced energy demand through forestry. As part of our user-centered design process, we propose to employ an instructional systems design (ISD) model to address the identified needs of our target audience of forest decision-makers. We will 'mine' existing sources of forest resource data (i.e., USFS FIA) in formats and geographies (e.g., municipal scale) relevant to our target audiences. The expansion of NJForestAdapt will complement our broader NJADAPT platform (www.njadapt.org) that provides ready access to high quality place-based information about conditions of a changing climate for use in state and community planning and decision-making. NJADAPT provides an important foundation for integrating additional climate data as they become available.

Project Methods
In developing our WebGIS application (NJForestAdapt-Version2), we propose to employ a user-centered design approach, i.e., a system that involved the target users to a great extent to influence the design of the system [Haklay and Tobon 2003]. As part of our user-centered design process, we propose to employ an instructional systems design (ISD) model to address the identified needs of our target audience of forest decision-makers. ISD is commonly used for the development of programs and products and employs a "systems approach" that matches the products and programs to users' needs to ensure that program/product development is effective and efficient [Gagne 1987]. We have successfully employed an ISD approach in the Phase 1 development of NJForestAdapt as well as in aiding coastal decision-makers to address the challenges posed by sea level rise and coastal flooding to land use planning and emergency management (Lathrop et al 2014).In order to design the NJForestAdapt so that the needs of potential user groups are met, a front-end evaluation will be done to assess the parameters and applications that are essential. Using a well-designed questionnaire, a sub-set of the potential users will be surveyed to: (1) identify their current level and source of information regarding local forest management for energy reduction, forest stewardship planning and carbon offset development; and forest carbon sequestration calculations (2) identify parameters that are most important to their decision-making, (3) determine their level of comfort with the suite of energy emission reduction, RGGI and forest carbon-related tools/worksheets, (4) determine the best structure for querying and interacting with an expanded NJForestAdapt tool, (5) determine what would enable or prevent them from using such a product. The results of this assessment will guide the overall structure, functionality and display of NJForestAdapt, including the development of tutorials to enhance user understanding and application.Case studies will be developed for private landowners, non-governmental organization and public land managers on how the NJForestAdapt tool can be employed to better understand the potential risks to the state's forests and potential opportunities for energy emissions reductions and carbon sequestration in both urban and rural forests. Additional case studies will examine how the NJForestAdapt tool can inform on-the-ground decisions of forest managers to enhance forest species composition and structure, as well as forest infrastructure (i.e., roads, culverts) to be more resilient under a changing climate. We propose to use the StoryMap tools in ESRI ArcGIS to illustrate the case studies; the resulting StoryMaps will be accessible through the NJForestAdapt website.One key component will be the development of the incorporation of decision-support tools for local governments to quantify the energy reduction potential of municipal forest restoration, stewardship and afforestation through planning scenarios at the municipal level and developing case studies to enhance end users application of the tools. We plan to work the US and New Jersey Forest Service to explore the use of tools that are under development. For example, the US Forest Service has developed the Tree Carbon Calculator to provide quantitative data on carbon dioxide sequestration and building heating/cooling energy effects provided by individual trees (https://www.fs.usda.gov/ccrc/tools/tree-carbon-calculator-ctcc). I-Tree provides a suite of tools to quantify the benefits of trees through the removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide and pollution, stormwater reduction, temperature modification (https://www.itreetools.org/). Rather than focusing on individual trees, we propose to focus on the benefits to increasing tree canopy cover at the municipal level. We do not propose to formulate new protocols but make the worksheet calculators more accessible and integrate relevant data and information to make them more understandable and streamlined for managers. The results of the tools will be incorporated within our existing Municipal Snapshot tool on the NJForestAdapt application.Once a "beta" version of the tool is developed, a sub-set of potential users will be asked to participate in a focus group to provide feedback on the initial design and usability of the tool. The evaluation method of "quester testing" will be used. With this approach, potential users are introduced to the product, then given a set of decisions they must make (quests) and asked to use the product to help them make the decisions. Each of the quests is a typical decision-making scenario. During the quests users engage with the product, find the information they need, note each decision on a quest sheet and then provide feedback on successes and/or frustrations. At the end of the session, users discuss their results with product developers and/or the evaluator. Based on feedback from "quester testing", the NJForestAdapt tool will be improved. Once the formative evaluation stage is completed, we will introduce the capabilities of the tool to a broader cross-section of end-users through the use of webinar technology. A summative evaluation will be conducted six months post-launch of the WebGIS application to allow adequate time for the target audience to evaluate and use the application for operational planning purposes. The objective of the summative evaluation will be to assess if the final products work and are useful for the target audience.

Progress 10/26/18 to 09/30/21

Outputs
Target Audience:Natural resource managers and land use "decision-makers", i.e., government agency, non-governmental organization personnel and forest land-owners. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Several undergraduate and graduate students were engaged in developing information products for inclusion on the NJForestAdapt application. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?The NJForestAdapt application is our main vehicle for information dissemination (NJ Forest Adapt (rutgers.edu). Information concerning the loss of forest lands and the implication on carbon stocks was included in our NJ Landscape Change Report available at http://crssa.rutgers.edu/projects/lc/ and archived in the Rutgers University Library. https://scholarship.libraries.rutgers.edu/esploro/outputs/report/Changing-landscapes-in-the-Garden-State/991031550019104646 What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Goal 1. Further develop a web-based geospatial information portal (NJ ForestAdapt) that facilitates the dissemination and integration of New Jersey-centric forest resource information. The NJ Forest Adapt application was first developed in a prior funding cycle. During the present cycle, the application was enhanced with additional data sets and functionality based on continued interaction with and feedback from our target audiences. In particular, we worked closely with the New Jersey Division of Parks & Forestry and the NJ Climate Change Alliance Natural Working Lands (NJCCA-NWL) Forest Working Group. Specific improvements included: 1) inclusion of additional climate parameters, including change from baseline, and how the climate layers are organized/displayed; 2) update of various land cover and fire risk data layers; 3) additional education material to assist the user; 4) addition of new Municipal Snapshots reporting function. Goal 2: to better understand how the state of New Jersey might further promote the stewardship and management of State forests and wetlands with the goal of enhancing the sequestration of carbon and reducing greenhouse gas emission. We initiated a collaboration with the (NJCCA-NWL) to map and characterize the threats to the sustainability of the state of New Jersey's forest lands, such as insect infestation and disease, storms, flooding, with respect to carbon sequestration, taking into consideration its functioning both as a carbon source and a carbon sink. We undertook a series of geospatial information system analyses employing the 1986-2015 NJ LULC, Natural Resources Conservation Service Soils SSURGO, USGS National Land Cover and the US Forest Service Forest Inventory & Analysis (FIA) databases. The Forest carbon analysis was based on the USFS FIA Imputed Carbon density maps and supplemented/complemented by USFS EVALIDator derived mapped data for selected geographic regions. The USFS FIA Imputed Carbon density mapped data set includes Total forest ecosystem carbon density imputed from forest inventory plots, 2000-2009 based on above- and belowground live trees, downed dead wood, forest floor, soil organic carbon, standing dead trees, understory above- and belowground pools. More specifically we characterized the carbon stocks of NJ forests as of 2015 to serve as a baseline and analyzed how the amount of forest, and the resulting stock of carbon, has changed through time in terms conversion to other land uses (as mapped in the NJ LULC time series).

Publications

• Type: Websites Status: Published Year Published: 2021 Citation: NJForestAdapt https://njforestadapt.rutgers.edu/#/splash

Progress 10/01/19 to 09/30/20

Outputs
Target Audience:Our target audience includeslocal land use planners and natural resource managerswho may work for local, county, state and federal land management agencies, non-profit land trusts, forestry consultants and private forest land owners. Changes/Problems:Dueto COVID we were unable to implement the work plan as originally envisioned, this included the convening of stakeholders for in-place beta testing and feedback, as well as the development of StoryMaps in ESRI ArcGIS to illustrate the case studies. In lieu of in-person meetings a virtual webinarwasheld to present NJForestAdapt and solicit feedback. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Nothing Reported How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?On August 17, 2020, Professor Richard Lathrop, Rutgers University and Ms. Patricia Leopold of the Northern Institute for Applied Climate Sciences presented a webinar on Climate Adaptation for New Jersey's Natural and Urban Forests as part of the NJ Climate Change Resource Center's Summer Climate Academy. Ms Leopold presented on theClimate Change Response Frameworkwhichprovides resources to help urban and natural land managers understand and adapt to climate change. These resources include the Mid-Atlantic Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment, the Adaptation Workbook, Adaptation Strategies and Approaches, and case studies showing how land managers have integrated climate change into planning and management. Complementarily, Dr. Lathrop presented on theNJ Forest Adaptweb portal as providing access to mapped information on the status of New Jersey's forests, present and future climate and other forest health stressors to aid land managers in adaptation planning. Almost 200 persons attended the webinar, which has been recorded and is posted to theRutgers New Jersey Climate Resource Center's Website.This webinar was organized by Rutgers University, the Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science, and the USDA Northern Forests Climate Hub. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?We have compiled a list of additional enhancements we plan to implement over the next reporting period to further develop the decision support capablilites of the application. These include1) more flexible approaches forinfromation extraction to provide information on urban forests; 2) additional municipal snapshots to provide more detailed climate change data; and 3) providing more guidance on forest management to optimize carbon sequestration and storage.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? As part of our user-centered design process, we proposed to employ an instructional systems design (ISD) model to ensure collaboration between investigators, intended users, and relevant stakeholders in 1) assessing key information needs, 2) tool design and development, 3) tool evaluation, and 4) outreach and dissemination of results to a broader array of intended users and relevant stakeholders. In order to design the NJForestAdapt so that the needs of potential user groups are addressed, we had a conference call (on February 10, 2020) with the staff of the New Jersey Division of Parks & Forestry to strategize about possible improvements to the initial version of NJForestAdapt. We have also been collaborating withthe Northern Institute for Applied Climate Sciences (NIACS) on how to best meshtheNJ Forest Adapt web portalwith the NIACS Forest Adaptation Workbook and other Adapation Strategies and Approaches. We held a joint training/outreach session on August 17, 2020. A number of enhancements were made to the NJForestadapt web application. Based on feedback we received from our end-users. These included: Added new US Forest Service FIA forest type group maps to Land Use & Forest Cover module. Developed and added a Coastal Forest Dieback map to Other Risks module. This was based on spatial modeling undertaken of the potential impact of future sea level rise by 2050. Added Land Surface Temperature maps for winter, spring, summer and fall months, based on regional scale remotely sensed image data from 2019 (https://neo.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/view.php?datasetId=MOD_LSTD_M&year=2019). A higher resolution map was created from Landsat 8 thermal infrared imagery for a date in mid-summer 2019. These image data were cross-referenced with the MODIS data. Adding functionality to allow the user to switch over to NJFloodMapper to access information on Human Social Vulnerability. Redid the initial NJAdapt landing page where users can learn about the broader NJAdapt program and access specific tools such as NJForestAdapt and NJFloodmapper. A review of existing on-line forest carbon assessment and calculator tools was undertaken. The scope, objectives, outcome products and pros/cons of the various tools were assessed to help us in our planning.

Publications

• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2020 Citation: Zipse, P. 2020 Carbon defense Strategies & Your Forest, presented at the 2nd Annual NW NJ Rivers Conference.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2020 Citation: Climate Adaptation for New Jersey's Natural and Urban Forests as part of the NJ Climate Change Resource Center's Summer Climate Academy. https://njclimateresourcecenter.rutgers.edu/past_events/summer-climate-academy-climate-adaptation-planning-for-new-jerseys-urban-and-natural-forests/
• Type: Websites Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: njforestadapt.org

Progress 10/26/18 to 09/30/19

Outputs
Target Audience:forest, parks and natural resource management agencies, municipal government officials, municipal shade tree commissions, landscape architects Changes/Problems:Progress on the project was somehwat slowed because of the large amount of work that was needed to fully finalize Phase 1 of the NJForestAdapt tool. That work has been completed and the tool publicly launched in fall 2019. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Presentations and demonstrations of the web tool were provided at several municipal forestry meetings. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?The web application was finalized and released to the public in the fall of 2019. Accessible at https://njforestadapt.rutgers.edu/#/splash What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?In order to design of Phase 2 of NJForestAdapt so that the needs of potential user groups are met, a front-end evaluation will be accomplished. In the next quarter, we will assemble a cross-section of target end-users to assess the parameters and applications that are essential. Case studies will be developed for private landowners, non-governmental organization and public land managers on how the NJForestAdapt tool can be employed to better understand the potential risks to the state's forests and potential opportunities for energy emissions reductions and carbon sequestration in both urban and rural forests.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Based on target end-user feedback, our focus during the last reporting period was further development of the NJForestAdapt web applicaiton. This included adding a number of addiditonal data sets and enhanced functionality. The presentaiton of the future climate data was modified to include future conditions but also change vs. the present day baseline. This required an extensive amount of data processing. The Municipal snapshot tool was further customized to meet the needs of state, county and municipal forest agencies and municipal shade tree commissions. Tutorials were developed and included on the website. Additional resources were incorporated on how the NJForestAdapt tool can inform on-the-ground decisions of forest managers to enhance forest species composition and structure.The web application was finalized and released to the public in the fall of 2019. https://njforestadapt.rutgers.edu/#/splash One key component will be the development of the incorporation of decision-support tools for local governments to quantify the energy reduction potential of municipal forest restoration, stewardship and afforestation through planning scenarios at the municipal level and developing case studies to enhance end users application of the tools. We have undertaken a survey of existing decision support tools that have been or are in the process of being developed by other agencies or research groups.

Publications