Source: VIRGINIA POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTE submitted to NRP
U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND POLICY IN A DYNAMIC GLOBAL MARKET ENVIRONMENT
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
COMPLETE
Funding Source
HATCH
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
1016877
Grant No.
(N/A)
Cumulative Award Amt.
(N/A)
Proposal No.
(N/A)
Multistate No.
S-OLD 1072
Project Start Date
Oct 1, 2018
Project End Date
Sep 30, 2023
Grant Year
(N/A)
Program Code
[(N/A)]- (N/A)
Recipient Organization
VIRGINIA POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTE
(N/A)
BLACKSBURG,VA 24061
Performing Department
Agricultural & Applied Economics
Non Technical Summary
U.S. agriculture is dependent on international markets, where trade represents 20% of overall farm income on average. From 2006 to 2016, U.S. agricultural exports rose from $70.95 to $134.71 billion, representing an increase of 90 percent. Imports rose from $65.46 to $114.44 billion, resulting in a positive agricultural trade balance that nearly quadrupled from $5.49 billion in 2006 to $20.27 billion in 2016 (ERS and FAS, 2018).Historically, the U.S. has been a proponent of developing trade agreements with other countries. However, recent events, including the U.S.-China trade dispute with imposition of tariffs beginning in January 2018 that has escalated to other countries covering a multitude of products including agricultural commodities, as well as the U.S. withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), create uncertainties for U.S. agriculture. It is unclear what the implications of these actions will be for U.S. agriculture and its related industries.U.S. agriculture also faces increasing uncertainty with respect to the application of non-tariff measures (NTMs). Broadly defined, non-tariff measures such as sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures and technical barriers to trade (TBT) are policy measures other than ordinary customs tariffs that can potentially have an economic effect on international trade in goods, changing quantities traded, prices, or both. Since 1995 and the creation of the World Trade organization (WTO), WTO members have notified over 18,000 SPS measures to protect human, plant and animal health and over 26,000 technical barriers to trade. Although some NTMs serve legitimate policy objectives, they often raise costs for exporting countries which can create obstacles to trade and rural economic development. Particularly in agricultural sectors, complex sanitary, phytosanitary and technical regulations create a number of challenges for U.S. trade which are generally not well understood.Given the importance and growth of international agricultural trade for U.S. agriculture and the U.S. economy, there is a need to determine the specific consequences for agricultural trade of the above policy actions. The principal benefits of this research include information pertaining to trade creation and diversion, supply response, import demands and export supplies, land values, price variability, agricultural value added, food safety, the environment, and emerging bio-energy issues. Improved competitiveness of the U.S. in international food and agricultural trade is expected to strengthen employment and increase incomes.
Animal Health Component
100%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
(N/A)
Applied
100%
Developmental
(N/A)
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
60661203010100%
Knowledge Area
606 - International Trade and Development;

Subject Of Investigation
6120 - International economy and sectors thereof;

Field Of Science
3010 - Economics;
Goals / Objectives
1. Determine the impacts of U.S. and foreign policies, regulations, market structures, and productivity on U.S. food and agricultural trade, the economy, and the environment. Specifically, to examine the impact of the following a. foreign investment and multinational firms,
b. international and national events and policies (e.g., Farm Bill, immigration and labor issues, food fraud, food labeling laws), and
c. economic growth and changing policies of developing and emerging economies, including safeguards or other mechanisms that target food security. Determine the impacts of international trade agreements and institutions on U.S. food and agricultural trade, the economy, and the environment.ÿ Specifically, to examine the potential implications of the following: a. renegotiating preferential trade agreements (e.g., NAFTA),
b. not engaging in preferential trade agreements (e.g. Trans Pacific Partnership), and
c. future preferential trade agreements.
Project Methods
Methods to accomplish these objectives include econometrics, simulation, spatial and optimization models, and time series analysis. Market behavior, supply and demand along with risk and uncertainty will be studied using these methods. The economic impacts will focus on changes in trade flows, output, value added, employment, the economic welfare of consumers and producers, and government expenditures. Measures of economic performance will focus on prices, trade, economies at the regional and national level, and the environment. In addition, we will develop new methods and extend existing methods to accomplish these objectives.

Progress 10/01/19 to 09/30/20

Outputs
Target Audience:The outcomes of this research are expected to have positive consequences for stakeholders associated with the U.S. food and agricultural sector. This includes agricultural producers, consumers, agribusiness firms, rural communities, policymakers, farm organizations, and related constituencies in order for them to have the information necessary for informed decision making and policy design. Additionally, given the recent disruptions in the agricultural supply chain due to the Coronavirus as well as the continuing U.S.-China trade dispute, outreach from our international trade research included enhancing the general public's knowledge of these issues and their impacts. Outreach examples include co-editing two respective special issues in Choices--the primary policy outreach publication for the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA) (see Products for this and other media outreach). Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?All projects supported graduate students and their opportunities for training and professional development through faculty-student mentoring, and support for students and faculty to present project findings at professional meetings and to government agency officials. Graduate students supported by these projects were able to interact with USDA senior economists and trade policy negotiators in helping shape national and international agricultural policy. Training includes weekly meetings with faculty, culminating in the development of abstracts, grant proposals, and journal article manuscript preparation as well as scientific presentations. Supported students included one undergraduate and seven graduate students and one postdoctoral scholar: Undergraduate student: - Rachel Bailey Graduate students: - Yunas Emre Karagulle - Xin Ning - Khadija Rounchdi - Yuxiao Shi - Konstantinos Syrengelas - Hakan Unveren - Jinyang Yang Postdoctoral Scholar: - Xin Ning Project results included completion of one Ph.D. dissertation (Ning) and one M.S. degree (Shi; see "Products" section). How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?PUBLICATIONS: Results have been disseminated through the following publication outlets: - Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics. - Center for Agricultural Trade Policy Report Series, Virginia Tech-College of Agriculture and Life Sciences: https://aaec.vt.edu/extension/Agricultural-Trade-Center.html - Choices, the primary outreach publication of the AAEA - Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics (JARE) - Journal of Agricultural Economics (JAE) - Journal of Management Policy and Practice (JMPP) - North American Colleges and Teachers of Agriculture (NACTA) Journal - One Ph.D. dissertation: Xin Ning. (December 2019). Ph.D. Dissertation: "Three Essays on Agricultural Trade Policy" Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Virginia Tech. Jason Grant, major advisor. Placement: Post-doctoral Scholar, Virginia Tech. PRESENTATIONS: Results have been disseminated through presentations at professional meetings, including conferences sponsored by the following organizations: - Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA) - Council on Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics (CFARE) - International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium (IATRC) - International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE) - USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum - World Food Prize GAP Report SOCIAL MEDIA AND PUBLIC OUTREACH: In response to inquiries on the impact of COVID-19 on the U.S. agricultural supply chain as well as the escalating U.S.-China trade dispute, project participants were featured in national press releases, TV, radio & newspaper interviews/podcasts. From the beginning of the U.S.-China trade dispute in early 2018, our public media outreach examples include CBS News--MoneyWatch, Fox News--Special Report with Bret Baier, The Washington Post, as well as co-editing two special issues on the U.S.-China trade dispute in Choices--the primary policy outreach publication for the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA). The second Choices special issue waspublishedduring this reporting time period and examined the ex-post impacts of the trade dispute on U.S. agriculture. Additionally, the Center for Agricultural Trade, housed within Virginia Tech's College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, hosted international trade expert Chad Bown, to present a university-wide seminar entitled "Trade Policy in the Age of Trump." The overall output which is documented in the S-1062 Final Report, a precursor to this S-1072 project, included • 3 press releases distributed nationwide by Virginia Tech's Office of Media Relations culminating in • 6 TV interviews--including CBS MoneyWatch and FOXNews--Special Report with Bret Baier • 1 presentation at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C. comprised of a panel discussion of current & former USTR Ag. Trade Ambassadors, including Richard Crowder (see below). • 5 citations in national and agricultural press, including The Washington Post • 4 radio interviews/podcast, including a live radio interview with WINA NewsRadio For this reporting period, media outreach includes newspapers-POLITICO, The Virginia Pilot; a webinar to The Council on Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics (CFARE); and interviews with WTOP News radio in Washington, D.C. as well as FactCheck.org (see the Products section). CONFERENCE: Virginia Tech's Center for Agricultural Trade co-hosted the Virginia Governor's Conference on Agricultural Trade annually for the past 12 years (2009-2020) in partnership with the Governor of Virginia, Virginia Farm Bureau Federation (VFBF), Virginia Department of Agricultural and Consumer Services (VDACS) and the Virginia Port Authority. Thanks to the leadership of Ambassador Richard Crowder, now retired AAEC Professor & Thornhill Endowed Chair in Ag. Trade who formerly served as the chief negotiator on agricultural trade for the Office of U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), this conference includes key domestic and global agricultural leaders. The Center for Agricultural Trade has partnered with Virginia Tech's Institute for Society, Culture and the Environment (ISCE) to provide funding for 25 students to attend the conference each year. The 2020 conference was attended by 225 participants on March 10, 2020, just before the Covid19 pandemic restrictions were put in place. https://www.ag-forestry.virginia.gov/agtrade2020/home/ https://vtnews.vt.edu/articles/2020/03/cals-aaec-gov-agtrade-conference.htm What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Continue working on the above projects resulting in research publications, presentations, and student engagement.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Listed below are the accomplishments of S-1072 Virginia team members Mary Marchant and Jason Grant, both of whom are members of the Center for Agricultural Trade at Virginia Tech's College of Agriculture and Life Sciences: GRANT AWARDS New Grants 1. "Expanding the Linked Global-Spatial Crop-Livestock Model to Include Dairy and a Prototype Fresh Fruit, Vegetable and Tree Nut Model," Funded by: Office of the Chief Economist (OCE), USDA; Performance Period: Sep. 30, 2020 - Dec. 31, 2021; PI: Jason Grant; Co-PIs: Xin Ning, Mary Marchant, Charlotte Emlinger, and David Orden. $350,000 Description Virginia Tech's Center for Agricultural Trade continues to work with USDA baseline model specialists to extend the VT-OCE linked global livestock-crop partial equilibrium simulation model with the addition of a dairy products component including fluid milk production and processed cheese, butter, yogurt, whey, and milk powders in a multiproduct modeling framework. 2. "Implications of COVID-19 for Agricultural Trade," Funded by: Economic Research Service, USDA; Performance Period: Sep. 30, 2020 - Sep 30, 2021; PIs: John Bovay and Shamar Stewart, Co-PIs: Jason Grant. $50,000 Description In 2020, the Covid19 pandemic challenged the global economy, spreading to nearly every country around the globe, decreasing and even shuttering economic activity, and threatening the lives of some of our most vulnerable populations. However, less is know how the pandemic influenced trade in staple agricultural products. This project seeks to enhance understanding of the way in which the Covid19 pandemic impacted trade in agricultural products. Ongoing Grants 3. Effects of Contested Regulatory Measures on U.S. and Global Agricultural Trade," Funded by: NIFA/AFRI Economics, Markets and Trade Program, 2018-2021. PD: J.H. Grant (Co-PIs: D. Orden, M. Marchant and E.B. Peterson) (Collaborators: Lee Ann Jackson (WTO), Christiane Wolff (WTO)). $337,611. Description International trade is vital to the prosperity of U.S. agriculture and accounts for 20% of U.S. farm income. To contribute toward securing and creating opportunities for U.S. agriculture and food products to enter into and remain competitive in foreign markets, this project seeks to significantly enhance our understanding of the impacts of sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures and technical barriers to trade (TBT) affecting the U.S and global agricultural trade. Specific objectives are: (i) to create an inventory of SPS and TBT measures affecting the U.S. and global agricultural trade using a targeted approach of exporters' revealed concerns; (ii) Develop a state-of-the-art econometric framework to provide new quantitative estimates of the impact of revealed SPS and TBT specific trade concerns on the U.S. and global agricultural trade. (iii) Develop a discrete-time model to provide novel evidence on the extent to which SPS and TBT measures impact the duration and hazard rate of U.S. and competing suppliers' agricultural trade. 2018-2019 project accomplishments include a. Completed comprehensive TBT database over the 1995-2018 timeframe. b. Completed model and estimation framework to determine impacts of SPS and TBT measures on trade flows c. Completed comprehensive policy report outlining the results of this project d. Preparation of journal articles and book chapters e. This project has supported current Ph.D. student Khadija Rouchdi 4. "Developing a Linked Global-Spatial Crop and Livestock Simulation Model and International Trade Elasticity Estimation," Funded by: Office of the Chief Economist (OCE) and Economic Research Service (ERS) USDA; Performance Period: Sep. 30, 2019 - Dec. 31, 2020; PI: Jason Grant; Co-PIs: Mary Marchant, Charlotte Emlinger, Everett Peterson, and David Orden. $875,000 Description Virginia Tech's Center for Agricultural Trade continues to refine the OCE-VT linked global livestock-crop partial equilibrium simulation model to incorporate downstream by-product industries (ethanol, high-fructose corn syrup, soybean meal, and oil) and new estimates of international trade elasticities generated by this project for scenario analyses.

Publications

  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Grant, J.H. and E.B. Peterson. 2019. Assessing the Landscape of Competitive Non-U.S. Free Trade Agreements and their Potential Impacts on U.S. Meat Exports, Technical Report prepared for USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, October, 2019
  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Xin Ning. (December 2019). Ph.D. Dissertation: Three Essays on Agricultural Trade Policy. Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Virginia Tech. Jason Grant, major advisor. Placement: Post-doctoral Scholar, Virginia Tech.
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Sheldon, I. and J.H. Grant. Global Trade in Agricultural Products: The Likely Impact of Covid19. Peer reviewed paper sponsored by AAEA in Economic Impacts of COVID-19 on Food and Agricultural Markets, CAST Commentary Report No: QTA2020-3, June 2020 Available online: https://www.cast-science.org/publication/economic-impacts-of-covid-19-on-food-and-agricultural-markets/
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Virginia Tech Media Relations (Author), Jason Grant (Interviewed Expert). (Uploaded January 21, 2020). China-U.S. Phase One trade deal. [Nationwide press release.] https://vtnews.vt.edu/articles/2020/01/unirel-tradedeal.html
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Virginia Tech Media Relations (Author), Jason Grant, Charlotte Emlinger and Mary Marchant (Cited Experts). (April 9, 2020). COVID-19 could alter agricultural trade relationships. The McDonough County Voice (Illinois). https://www.mcdonoughvoice.com/news/20200409/covid-19-could-alter-agricultural-trade-relationships
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Matt Noltemeyer (Author), Jason Grant, et al. (Interviewed Experts). (Feb. 21, 2020). Ag outlook panelists talk China. Food Business News. https://www.foodbusinessnews.net/articles/15472-ag-outlook-panelists-talk-china
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Murillo, Michelle (Author) and Jason Grant (Interviewed Expert). (April 14, 2020). How the pandemic could alter the future of food-trade relationships. WTOP News, Washington, DC. https://wtop.com/coronavirus/2020/04/how-the-pandemic-could-alter-the-future-of-food-trade-relationships/
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: McCrimmon, Ryan (Author) and Jason Grant (Interviewed Expert). (January 22, 2020). Is the U.S.-China deal doomed from Day 1? POLITICO https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-agriculture/2020/01/22/is-the-us-china-deal-doomed-from-day-1-784557
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Virginia Techs Center for Agricultural Trade co-hosted the Virginia Governors Conference on Agricultural Trade annually for the past 12 years (2009-2020) in partnership with the Governor of Virginia, Virginia Farm Bureau Federation (VFBF), Virginia Department of Agricultural and Consumer Services (VDACS) and the Virginia Port Authority. Thanks to the leadership of Ambassador Richard Crowder, now retired AAEC Professor & Thornhill Endowed Chair in Ag. Trade who formerly served as the chief negotiator on agricultural trade for the Office of U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), this conference includes key domestic and global agricultural leaders. The Center for Agricultural Trade has partnered with Virginia Techs Institute for Society, Culture and the Environment (ISCE) to provide funding for 25 students to attend the conference each year. The 2020 conference was attended by 225 participants on March 10, 2020, just before the Covid19 pandemic restrictions were put in place. https://www.ag-forestry.virginia.gov/agtrade2020/home/ https://vtnews.vt.edu/articles/2020/03/cals-aaec-gov-agtrade-conference.html
  • Type: Websites Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Virginia Tech-College of Agriculture & Life Sciences. "The Center for Agricultural Trade" website. https://aaec.vt.edu/extension/Agricultural-Trade-Center.html
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Kiely, Eugene and Lori Robertson (Authors); Jason Grant and Mary Marchant (Cited Experts). (June 13, 2019). FactChecking Trumps Pitch to Farmers. FactCheck.org. Retrieved from https://www.factcheck.org/2019/06/factchecking-trumps-pitch-to-farmers/
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Barlow, Zeke (Author), Virginia Tech Media Relations (Producer), Olga Isengildina-Massa and Mary Marchant (Cited Experts). (April 7, 2020). Virginia Tech experts say food supply chain is strong and resilient despite COVID-19. [Nationwide press release.] https://vtnews.vt.edu/articles/2020/04/cals-food-supply-chain.html#:~:text=%2D19%20%C2%B7%C2%B7%C2%B7-,Virginia%20Tech%20experts%20say%20food%20supply%20chain,and%20resilient%20despite%20COVID%2D19&text=%E2%80%9CI%20don't%20anticipate%20any,industry%20is%20still%20going%20strong.%E2%80%9D
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2020 Citation: Balagtas, J., J. Cooper, and M.A. Marchant, editors, 2021. Agricultural Market Response to COVID-19," Choices, in press.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Zhang, Wei* and Mary A. Marchant. 2019. "U.S.-China Sorghum Trade Analysis Within the Trade Conflict: Growth, Trends, and Forecast." Journal of Management Policy and Practice (JMPP). 20(5):80-100.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Song,* Baohui and Mary A. Marchant. 2019. "Enhancing Student Learning Using an International Trade Simulation Project." North American Colleges and Teachers of Agriculture (NACTA) Journal- Special Issue "Engaging Students in Global Agriculture." 63(1a):94-98. Available online: https://nactateachers.org/index.php/volume-63-1a-special-issue-december-2019/2912-special-issue-2019-enhancing-student-learning-using-an-enhancing-student-learning-using-an-international-trade-simulation-project
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2020 Citation: Bailey, Rachel. The U.S.-China Trade War and COVID-19: Impacts on U.S. Agriculture. Undergraduate research paper submitted for publication in the Journal of Undergraduate Research. Dr. Marchant oversaw this research; in review.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2020 Citation: Grant, J.H., K.A. Boys, and C. Xie. 2021 Forthcoming. A New President in the White House: Implications for Canadian Agricultural Trade, Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Accepted, In press.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2020 Citation: Ning, X., J.H. Grant and E.B. Peterson. 2020 Forthcoming. Estimating Structural Change in the Japanese Beef Import Market in the Wake of BSE: A Smooth Transition Approach," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Accepted, In Press
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2020 Citation: Arita, S., J.H. Grant and S. Sydow. 2020 Forthcoming. Has Covid19 Caused a Great Trade Collapse? An Initial Ex Post Assessment, Choices Accepted, In Press.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2020 Citation: Grant, J.H., S. Arita, C. Emlinger, R. Johansson and C. Xie. 2020 Forthcoming. Agricultural Exports and Retaliatory Trade Actions: An Empirical Assessment of the 2018/19 Trade Conflict, Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Accepted, In Press.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2020 Citation: Wieck, C. and J.H. Grant. 2020. Codex in Motion: Food Safety Standard Setting and Impacts on Developing Countries Agricultural Exports, Euro Choices, Accepted, In Press.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2020 Citation: Sharma, A*, J.H. Grant, and K.A. Boys. 2020. Truly Preferential Treatment? Reconsidering the Generalized System of (Trade) Preferences with Competing Suppliers Journal of Agricultural Economics, Online Early, https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-9552.12414
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Grant, J.H. and S. Sydow. 2019. The Economic Impacts of Trade Retaliation on U.S. Agriculture: A One-Year Review, Choices (Quarter 4), Available Online: https://www.choicesmagazine.org/choices-magazine/theme-articles/the-economic-impacts-of-trade-retaliation-on-us-agriculture-a-one-year-review/the-economic-impacts-of-trade-retaliation-on-us-agriculture-a-one-year-review
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Grant, J.H., S. Arita, C. Emlinger, S. Sydow and M. Marchant. 2019. The 2018-2019 Trade Conflict: A One Year Assessment and Impacts on U.S. Agricultural Exports, Choices (Quarter 4), Available online:https://www.choicesmagazine.org/choices-magazine/theme-articles/the-economic-impacts-of-trade-retaliation-on-us-agriculture-a-one-year-review/the-20182019-trade-conflict-a-one-year-assessment-and-impacts-on-us-agricultural-exports
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: J.H. Grant, S. Arita, C. Emlinger, and S. Sydow. 2019. Impacts of the 2018-2019 Trade Dispute on U.S. and Global Agricultural Commodity Trade, Presented at the Annual Meeting of the International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium (IATRC), Washington, D.C., Dec. 8-10.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Grant, J., and Ning, X*. 2019. New Estimates on the Ad-valorem Equivalents of SPS Measures: Evidence from Specific Trade Concerns, Presented at the Annual Meeting of the International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium (IATRC), Washington, D.C., Dec. 8-10.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Grant, J.H., and E.B. Peterson. 2019. The Effects of Regional Trade Agreements on the Duration and Hazard Rate of Exporting: Lessons from Agricultural Trade, Presented at the Annual Meeting of the International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium (IATRC), Washington D.C., Dec. 8-10.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Grant, J.H., C.P. Xie*, and J. Zhu. 2019. Towards a More Efficient Tariff Rate Quota Regime: A Case Study on Chinas Reform, Presented at the IAAE-Nanjing Inter-Conference Symposium, Nanjing, China, Nov. 11-13.
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Holt, M., J. Bovay, J. Friedel, O. Isengildina-Massa, P. Kayser, J. van Senten, J.H. Grant, D. Orden and M. Marchant. 2020. Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on U.S. and Virginia Farms and Businesses, Department of Agricultural & Applied Economics Report, May 2020.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Grant, J.H., S. Arita, C. Emlinger, R. Johansson and C. Xie. 2020. Agricultural Export Prices and Volumes: A Monthly Panel-Data Assessment of the 2018/19 Trade War, Invited paper presented at the Virtual Annual Meeting of the American Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, August 10, 2020.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Grossen, G. and J.H. Grant. 2020. Agricultural Trade Performance and Potential: A Retrospective Panel Data Analysis of U.S. Exports of Corn and Soybeans, Poster presentation at the Virtual Annual Meeting of the American Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, August 10, 2020.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Grant, J.H. 2020. China at a Crossroads: U.S.-China Agricultural Trade in the Shadow of a Dispute, Invited presentation given at the 96th USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum, Washington, DC, Feb. 20-21.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Sheldon, I., J.H. Grant, J. Glauber, and A. Countryman. 2019. Changes in the Multilateral Trading System: Impacts to U.S. Agriculture, Invited webinar presentation for the Council on Food Agriculture and Resource Economics (CFARE), Washington DC., Sep 20.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Grant, J.H., 2019. Global Agricultural Productivity (GAP) Report, Invited presentation at the World Food Prize Conference, Des Moines, IA, September 2019.
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Grant, J.H., D. Orden and M. Marchant. 2020. COVID-19 and Agricultural Exports Under the U.S.-China Trade Deal, Center for Agricultural Trade Policy Update No. 2020-05.


Progress 10/01/18 to 09/30/19

Outputs
Target Audience:The outcomes of this research are expected to have positive consequences for stakeholders associated with the U.S. food and agricultural sector. This includes agricultural producers, consumers, agribusiness firms, rural communities, policymakers, farm organizations and related constituencies in order for them to have the information necessary for informed decision making and policy design. Additionally, given the recent U.S.-China trade dispute, outreach from our international trade research included enhancing the general public's knowledge of trade issues and potential impacts of a trade war. Outreach examples include co-editing aspecial issueon the U.S.-China trade dispute in Choices--the primary policy outreach publication for the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA).This theme issue was awarded the 2019 AAEA Quality of Communication Award. (see Products for this and other media outreach). Changes/Problems:Major Change: One of our members recently retired (Everett Peterson). We are grateful for his many years of service and his continued, but limited participation. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?All projects supported graduate students and their opportunities for training and professional development through faculty-student mentoring, and travel support for students and faculty to present project findings at professional meetings and to government agency officials. Graduate students supported by these projects were able to interact with USDA senior economists and trade policy negotiators in helping shape national and international agricultural policy. Training includes weekly meetings with faculty, culminating in the development of abstracts, grant proposals and journal article manuscript preparation as well as scientific presentations. Supported students included one undergraduate and five graduate students and one postdoctoral scholar: Undergraduate student: - Charles Cuaresma Graduate students: - Grace Grossen - Xin Ning - Khadija Rounchdi - Konstantinos Syrengelas -Hakan Unveren - Yuxiao Shi Postdoctoral Scholars: - Chaoping Xie -Xin Ning Project results included completion of two Ph.D. dissertations (Xie and Ning) and one M.S. thesis (Grossen; see "Products" section). How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?PUBLICATIONS: Results have been disseminated through the following publication outlets: - Agribusiness: An International Journal - American Journal of Agricultural Economics (AJAE), the premier journal of the Agricultural & Applied Economics Association (AAEA) - Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics. - Center for Agricultural Trade Policy Report Series, Virginia Tech-College of Agriculture and Life Sciences: https://aaec.vt.edu/extension/Agricultural-Trade-Center.html - Choices, the primary outreach publication of the AAEA - Council on Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics (CFARE) - International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium (IATRC) Commissioned Paper - Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics (JARE) - Journal of Agricultural & Applied Economics (JAAE) - Journal of Management Policy and Practice (JMPP) - North American Colleges and Teachers of Agriculture (NACTA) Journal PRESENTATIONS: Results have been disseminated through presentations at professional meetings, including conferences sponsored by the following organizations: - Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA) - 2019 Global Entrepreneur Partnership conference hosted by Virginia Tech Outreach and International Affairs and VTKnowledgeWorks - International Ag. Trade Research Consortium (IATRC) - Southern Association of Ag. Economists (SAEA) - World Food Prize GAP Report Launch, As well as seminars presented at the following organizations: - U.S. Department of Agriculture-Office of the Chief Economist (USDA-OCE) - Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) - USDA-Foreign Ag. Service (FAS) - 2019 Great Decisions series sponsored by the Virginia Tech Lifelong Learning Institute.Great Decisions is America's largest discussion program on world affairs and sponsored nationally by the Foreign Policy Association. https://www.fpa.org/great_decisions/ SOCIAL MEDIA AND PUBLIC OUTREACH: Given the recent U.S.-China trade dispute, outreach from our international trade research included enhancing the general public's knowledge of trade issues and potential impacts of a trade war. From the beginning of the trade dispute in early 2018, our public media outreach examples include CBS News--MoneyWatch, Fox News--Special Report with Bret Baier, The Washington Post, as well as co-editing a special issue on the U.S.-China trade dispute in Choices--the primary policy outreach publication for the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA). Additionally, the Center for Agricultural Trade, housed within Virginia Tech's College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, hosted international trade expert Chad Bown, to present a university-wide seminar entitled "Trade Policy in the Age of Trump." Overall output which are documented in the S-1062 Final Report, precursor to this S-1072 project, included 3 press releases distributed nationwide by Virginia Tech's Office of Media Relations culminating in 6 TV interviews--including CBS MoneyWatch and FOXNews--Special Report with Bret Baier 1 presentation at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C. comprised of a panel discussion of current & former USTR Ag. Trade Ambassadors, including Richard Crowder (see below). 5 citations in national and agricultural press, including The Washington Post 4 radio interviews/podcast, including live radio interview with WINA NewsRadio For the time period of this progress report, in addition to the above items, media output includes 3 additional citations by national, state and agricultural press including The Washington Post, The Virginia Pilot and Seed World A webinar hosted by The Council on Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics (CFARE) Interview and citation in FactCheck.org (see the Products section). CONFERENCE: Virginia Tech Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AAEC) has co-hosted the Virginia's Governors Conference on Agricultural Trade annually for the past 11 years. Thanks to the leadership of Ambassador Richard Crowder, AAEC Professor & Thornhill Endowed Chair in Ag. Trade who formerly served as the chief negotiator on agricultural trade for the Office of U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), this conference includes key domestic and global agricultural leaders. The 2019 conference was attended by 315 participants, the most ever. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Continue working on the above projects resulting in research publications, presentations and student engagement.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Barriers to trade in the form of tariffs and a plethora of non-tariff measures including regulatory standards and tariff-rate quotas impacting agricultural products can restrict trade leading to underperformance in key export markets. During this reporting period, we developed research questions associated with the iplications of agriculture and food trade shocks. We engaged with USDA senior economists and trade policy negotiators to discuss the influence of product and destination markets on US trade shocks. We also developed preliminary data on the interaction of crops and livestock modeling for estimating international trade elasticity. These preliminary data efforts have resulted in funding to carry these projects forward. Dr. Marchant's research focus on China has contributed to understanding how the U.S.-China trade dispute has affected U.S. agriculture. She is continuing a project that was originally funded by USDA-NIFA-AFRI (#2014-67023-21946) but has now concluded (final report was been submitted in 2018). In the past year, she has evaluated the remaining data from that project to meet the goals of this Hatch project, prepared and submitted publications, and given several presentations.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Edited Volume: Marchant, M.A. and H.H. Wang, co-editors, 2018. "U.S.China Trade Dispute and Potential Impacts on Agriculture" Theme Issue, Choices. 2nd Quarter 33:2(2018), 36 pages. This theme issue was awarded the 2019 Agricultural and Applied Economics Association Quality of Communication Award. Available online: http://www.choicesmagazine.org/choices-magazine/theme-articles/us-china-trade-dispute-and-potential-impacts-to-agriculture
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2019 Citation: Song, Baohui and Mary A. Marchant, in press/2019. Enhancing Student Learning Using an International Trade Simulation Project." North American Colleges and Teachers of Agriculture (NACTA) Journal- Special Issue Engaging Students in Global Agriculture.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2019 Citation: Zhang, Wei* and Mary A. Marchant, in press/2019. U.S.-China Sorghum Trade Analysis within the Trade Conflict: Growth, Trends, and Forecast. Journal of Management Policy and Practice (JMPP). (* denotes graduate student/post-doctoral scholar)
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Hejazi, M.,* M.A. Marchant, J. Zhu* and X. Ning.* 2019. "The Decline of U.S. Export Competitiveness in the Chinese Meat Import Market." Agribusiness: An International Journal Special Issue "The Twenty-First Century Agribusiness in China." 35(1):114-126. https://doi.org/10.1002/agr.21588
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Marchant, M.A., and H.H. Wang, co-editors. 2018. "Theme Overview: U.S.-China Trade Dispute and Potential Impacts on Agriculture." Choices. Volume 33, Quarter 2. Available online: http://www.choicesmagazine.org/choices-magazine/theme-articles/us-china-trade-dispute-and-potential-impacts-to-agriculture/theme-overview-uschina-trade-dispute-and-potential-impacts-on-agriculture
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Hansen, J., M.A. Marchant, W. Zhang,* and J. Grant. 2018. "Upheaval in China's Imports of U.S. Sorghum." Choices. Volume 33, Quarter 2. Available online: http://www.choicesmagazine.org/choices-magazine/theme-articles/us-china-trade-dispute-and-potential-impacts-to-agriculture/upheaval-in-chinas-imports-of-us-sorghum
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Marchant, Mary A. Invited panel presentation at the Challenges, Implications, and the Future of Agricultural Trade between the US and China workshop sponsored by the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA) China Section, Purdue University and Zhejiang University; organized by H. Wang, B. Song & S. Jin and presented at a post-conference to the 2019 AAEA annual meeting, Atlanta, GA. July 24, 2019.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Zhang, Wei* and Mary A. Marchant. Simulation of Chinese Sorghum Imports: U.S. and Global Impacts. Selected paper in the China Sections Track Session at the 2019 Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA) annual meeting, Atlanta, GA. July 21-23, 2019.
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Marchant, Mary A. Decoding U.S.-China Trade session of the 2019 Great Decisions series sponsored by the Virginia Tech Lifelong Learning Institute, February 20, 2019. Great Decisions is Americas largest discussion program on world affairs and sponsored nationally by the Foreign Policy Association. https://www.fpa.org/great_decisions/
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Marchant, Mary A. China-U.S. Trade Dispute, invited presentation at The Importance of Global Trade Policies/Disputes and Macroeconomic Conditions to Southern U.S. Agriculture symposium, organized by S. Devadoss and presented at the 2019 Southern Agricultural Economics Association (SAEA) annual meeting, Birmingham, AL. February 2-5, 2019. https://www.saea.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/prog2019.pdf
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Grant, Jason, Richard Crowder and Mary A. Marchant. Center for Agricultural Trade invited presentation at Global Economic Trends on Trade session, 2019 Global Entrepreneur Partnership conference hosted by Virginia Tech Outreach and International Affairs and VTKnowledgeWorks. Blacksburg, VA. August 22-31, 2019.
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Marchant, M. A., J. Grant, E. Peterson (2019). The Importance of U.S. Food and Agricultural Trade in a New Global Market Environment. S-1062 Multi-state Project. Final Report to USDA.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Sharma, A.* J.H. Grant, and K.A. Boys. 2019. The Bright Side of the Generalized System of (Trade) Preferences: Lessons from Agricultural Trade, Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 44(1): 32-61.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Xie, C.,* J.H. Grant and K.A. Boys. 2019. Do State Owned Enterprises Benefit More from Chinas Tariff-Rate Quota Regime? Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, https://doi.org/10.1111/cjag.12213
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Peterson, E.B., J.H. Grant, and J. Rudi-Polloshka.* 2018. Survival of the Fittest: Export Duration and Failure into United States Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Markets, American Journal of Agricultural Economics 100(1): 23-45.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Xie, C.P.,* J. Gao, J.H. Grant, and S. Anders Examining the Canada-China Agri-Food Trade Relationship: Firms, Trading Partners, and Trading Volumes. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2018, (0): 123.
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Grant, J.H. and C. Xie.* 2018. The Role of State-Owned and Private Enterprises in Chinas Agricultural Imports, Center for Agricultural Trade Policy Brief No. 2018-05, May.
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Grant, J.H. X. Ning,* and E. Peterson. 2018. Trade Elasticities and Trade Disputes: New Evidence from Tariffs and Relative Preference Margins, Center for Agricultural Trade Policy Report No. 2018-07, July.
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Grant, J.H., K. Boys and M. Marchant. 2018. Regionalism without Regions: Examining the Trade Creating Potential of Cross-Regional Trade Agreements, Center for Agricultural Trade Policy Report No. 2018-08, August.
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Hejazi, M.,* J.H. Grant and E. Peterson. 2018. Evaluating the Stringency of Maximum Residue Limits: US Exports of Fruits and Vegetables to the EU and TPP Markets" Center for Agricultural Trade Working Paper CAT- 2018-06, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Virginia Tech, June 2018.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Grant, J.H., Xie, C.*, S. Arita and C. Emlinger. 2019. Global Agri-Food Trade Shocks: A Historical Econometric Assessment, Invited Paper presented at the American Agricultural and Applied Economics Association Annual Meeting, Atlanta, GA, July 25-27.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Grant, J.H., C. Emlinger, R. Johansson, S. Arita and S. Sydow. 2019. Impacts of the 2018-19 Trade Dispute on U.S. and Global Agricultural Exports, Organized Session presentation at the International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium (IATRC), Washington, D.C., Dec. 8-10.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Ning, X.* and J.H. Grant. New Estimates on the Ad-valorem Equivalents of SPS Measures: Evidence from Specific Trade Concerns, Invited Paper presented at the International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium (IATRC), Washington, D.C., Dec. 8-10.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Grant, J.H. and E.B. Peterson. 2019. The Effects of Regional Trade Agreements on the Duration and Hazard Rate of Exporting: Lessons from Agricultural Trade, Invited Commissioned Paper Presentation at the International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium (IATRC), Washington, D.C., Dec. 8-10.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Grant, J.H., 2019. Global Agricultural Productivity Index, Presented at the World Food Prize GAP Report Launch, Des Moines, IA, October 17, 2019.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Grant, J.H. 2019. Increasing Role of Economics in Agricultural Regulatory Decisions, Organized Track Session presented at the American Agricultural and Applied Economics Association Annual Meeting, Atlanta, GA, July 25-27.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Ning, X.* and J.H. Grant. 2019. SPS Measures and the Hazard Rate of Chinese Agricultural Exports, Lightening presentation presented at the American Agricultural and Applied Economics Association Annual Meeting, Atlanta, GA, July 25-27.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Xie, C.,* J.H. Grant, X. Wang, Y. Long, and Y. Liu. 2019. Food Fraud and Import Refusals: Assessing Chinas Agri-Food Imports at the Firm Level, Poster presentation presented at the American Agricultural and Applied Economics Association Annual Meeting, Atlanta, GA, July 25-27.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Xie, C.,* J.H. Grant, J. Zhu, and X. Li. 2019. Towards a More Efficient Tariff Rate Quota Regime: Evidence from Chinese Firm-Level Grain Imports, Poster presentation presented at the American Agricultural and Applied Economics Association Annual Meeting, Atlanta, GA, July 25-27.
  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Grossen, Grace E. (May 2019). M.S. Thesis: Agricultural Trade Performance and Potential: A Retrospective Panel Data Analysis of U.S. Exports of Corn and Soybeans. Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Virginia Tech. Jason Grant, major advisor. Placement: Economist, Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Kansas City, MO.
  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Chaoping Xie. (December 2018). Ph.D. Dissertation: Firms & Agricultural Trade Policy: New Evidence from Chinese Firm-level Data. Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Virginia Tech. Jason Grant, major advisor. Placement: Post-doctoral Scholar, Virginia Tech; Associate Professor, Nanjing Agricultural University, China.
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Pierceall, Kimberly and Gordon Rago (Authors) and Jason Grant (Cited Expert). August 08, 2019. Dollar Tree, Smithfield Foods Caught in the Middle of U.S.-China Trade War, The Virginia Pilot. https://www.pilotonline.com/business/consumer/article_27be334c-b950-11e9-b7db-bbff64c900ff.html
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Deering, Julie (Author) and Jason Grant (Cited Expert). October 28, 2019. Trade War Bruising Could Leave Scars, Seed World, Online: https://seedworld.com/trade-war-bruising-could-leave-scars/
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Countryman, Amanda, Joe Glauber and Jason Grant. September 24, 2019. Council on Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics C-FARE Webinar. Changes in the Multilateral Trading System: Impacts to U.S. Agriculture, presenters: Amanda Countryman, Joe Glauber and Jason Grant, September 20, 2019, https://www.cfare.org/new-blog/trade2019webinar
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Kelly, Meg (Author); Mary A. Marchant and Olga Isengildina-Massa (Cited Experts). (August 13, 2018). Both sides of the aisle stretch the truth in the soybean debate. The Washington Post. Retrieved from https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2018/08/13/both-sides-of-the-aisle-stretch-the-truth-in-the-soybean-debate/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.411079c192f4
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Kiely, Eugene and Lori Robertson (Authors); Jason Grant and Mary Marchant (Cited Experts). (June 13, 2019). FactChecking Trumps Pitch to Farmers. FactCheck.org. Retrieved from https://www.factcheck.org/2019/06/factchecking-trumps-pitch-to-farmers/
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Marchant, M. A. (July 2019). The Impact of Diversifying China's Global Agri-Food Suppliers on U.S. Exports. Progress report to the funder of this seed grant: Virginia Techs Institute for Society, Culture and Environment (ISCE).
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Marchant, M. A. (June 2018). Expanding U.S. Market Access in China's Evolving Agricultural and Trade Policy Environment. Agriculture and Food Research Initiative (AFRI) grant #2014-67023-21946. 2018 Final Report to the funder: U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, National Institute of Food & Agriculture (USDA-NIFA). Retrieved from http://portal.nifa.usda.gov/
  • Type: Websites Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Virginia Tech-College of Agriculture & Life Sciences. "The Center for Agricultural Trade" website. https://aaec.vt.edu/extension/Agricultural-Trade-Center.html
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Broadwell, Jillian (Author) and Zeke Barlow (Producer). (September 20, 2018). Virginia Tech trade center becomes knowledge hub for 2018 trade inquires. [Virginia Tech Daily news story.] https://vtnews.vt.edu/articles/2018/09/cals-aaec-trade-2018.html
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Virginias Governors Conference on Agricultural Trade. (2009-2019). Co-hosted by the Virginia Tech Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AAEC) for the past 11 years. Thanks to the leadership of Richard Crowder, AAEC Professor & Thornhill Endowed Chair in Ag. Trade and former Ambassador who served as the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) chief negotiator on agricultural trade, this conference includes key agricultural leaders domestically and globally. The 2019 conference was attended by over 315 participants, the most ever. https://www.ag-forestry.virginia.gov/agtrade2019/agenda/ https://vtnews.vt.edu/articles/2019/02/cals-aaec-tradeconference2019.html?utm_source=cmpgn_news&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=vtUnirelNewsDailyCMP_DM32680
  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Xin Ning. (December 2019). Ph.D. Dissertation: Three Essays on Agricultural Trade Policy. Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Virginia Tech. Jason Grant, major advisor. Placement: Post-doctoral Scholar, Virginia Tech.