Progress 08/01/18 to 12/31/21
Outputs
Target Audience:During the three-year project, we reach the following audiences: 1. South Carolina State University Students The efforts were made to recruit and train 3 students, including two graduate and one undergraduate, for the international trade and food security research. The project key personnel worked with outside agencies. They were able to obtain farm export data from USDA, demographic and socioeconomic data from US Census data base for 2002, 2007, 2012 and 2017. We are very thankful for the office of the USDA. We received assistance from the USDA and US Census data base managers to retrieve food security socioeconomic and demographic data on households in SC counties. We worked with project professional and key personnel and students to update dynamic panel gravity models and probit equations for state level analysis. The models are operational and were used to address impacts of USMCA, EU, ASEAN and MERCOSUR on dairy, poultry, and Tukey trade flows. This is a novel methodology that is being used more and more in international, regional, and state level trade studies. 2. Farmers in South Carolina Counties who participated in the survey. Meetings with farmers during the survey administration in South Carolina was informative. Farmers received the opportunity to improve their knowledge of international free trade agreements (FTAs) including the new US Mexico Canada free trade agreement (USMCA) and their impacts on farm products and exports. Also discussed was the prevalence of food insecurity in South Carolina. The project key personnel worked with a senior extension agent and county extension agents to administer family survey data on household food security and to collect survey instruments from farmers in South Carolina. The survey questions aim to help farmers and the community understand the benefits and challenges of free trade agreements such as NAFTA, EU, ASEAN and MERCOSUR and the potential impact of the USMCA. The survey includes food security questions for farmers in six USDA regions of SC. The survey data were collected from the counties of Orangeburg, Greenwood, Sumter, Clarendon, and Williamsburg. In Williamsburg the farm districts Kingstree and Nesmith were represented in the poll. The initial data analysis focused on two factors affecting food security - income and food access. The study was extended to the forty-six counties in SC to evaluate food availability and number of food insecure in the counties. 3. Faculty and Academic audience and others with interests in international trade and food security Faculty are reached through publications, seminars, and working paper series. Our study adopted a county /state level approach to food security research. The authors believe that the findings add to literature on the food security studies that mostly focused on global and national levels. The results are a good information resource for faculty and researchers in public and private sectors. 4. Communication with an USDA agent with expertise in food security and conversation with Census data base managers were fruitful and helped key project personnel increase knowledge of food security issues at local county levels. 5. Journal readers have access to published materials from the project. Published paper and current manuscripts are available for academic research and for the public with interest in food security and international trade research. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? 1. Two graduate students and one undergraduate student were trained in international trade and food safety research. The three students have joined the research team and acquired hands-on experiences during the three-year project. 2. During the analysis of factors affecting county level food availability, the authors suspected that county location has impact on food availability. They developed a county location index and used it to address the extent to which a county location affects level of food availability. The evidence suggests that Most counties that had below average food availability were in the northern half of the state. 3. The post doctorate research assistant achieved professional development and is now a self-starter researcher. The assistant participated in the development of manuscripts from project materials including the above publication. The following are current manuscripts. a. An Empirical Assessment of Factors Affecting Regional and Local Food Security b. Determinants of Local Food Security: An Analysis of Factors Affecting Food availability and the Number of food Insecure Persons in South Carolina c. The Potential Impact of USMCA and other Regional Free Trade Agreements on US Dairy, Poultry and Turkey trade 4. Another manuscript entitled "Trade Benefits of Regional Free Trade Agreements on State Agricultural Exports and the Impact of the Great Recession" is being submitted to the Journal of Economic Integration for possible publication. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? 1. Publications in refereed journals are major venues of dissemination of results to global audience. The paper entitled "Assessing Trade Benefits of a TTIP and the Role of Regional Free Trade Blocks on South Carolina Agricultural Exports: A Static and Dynamic Approach" is published in the - International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics", Vol 9. N0 4, pp. 245-261, 2021. 2. Farmers and exporters are major communities of interest in this project. With the assistance of the 1890 Extension agents, a survey of farmers was conducted in South Carolina counties. The farmers received briefings on the importance of the project and raised our awareness of international trade and food security issues. 3. Faculty, staff, and students with interest in international trade and food security have access to relevant published papers and working paper series produced from project materials 4. The following available manuscripts are adequate sources of relevant information a. An Empirical Assessment of Factors Affecting Regional and Local Food Security Abstract There is a growing interest in the implementation of trade policy to promote a healthier food supply. Although international trade is known to have a substantial impact on food security outcomes, global hunger and food insecurity remain a major concern at the national and international level. More than 800 million people face food insecurity (FAO, 2013). This study focusses on how international trade policy affects global food security in the USA. The study attempts to identify factors affecting food security indicators, notably per capita calories, proteins supply, and food availability. Using data from 1961 to 2017, dynamic panel gravity models are used to address the factors affecting food security within the United States. In this study, we also look at the impact of NAFTA on food supply and the other food security indicators. The results show that lagged dependent variable, GDP, productivity, farm income, trade openness and NAFTA are major factors affecting food security. No significant effect is found for population, and life expectancy in most cases. However, we find evidence of a positive and significant impact of NAFTA on food security in terms of food supply. When we included the interaction term between NAFTA and productivity, results reveal that NAFTA did not lead to a shift in productivity to enhance food supply. Moreover, NAFTA effects on food and calorie supply seems to have declined over time. This result is consistent with Sun and Reed (2010) who concluded that NAFTA effects varied overtime. b. Determinants of Local Food Security: An Analysis of Factors Affecting Food availability and the Number of food Insecure Persons in South Carolina Abstract Food security is a research area that has received global and regional level attention. Indeed, there exists a large body of literature on food insecurity at both national and state levels. Fewer studies have focused on food insecurity at local county levels. In this study we addressed factors affecting food security in terms of food availability and the number of individuals that are food-insecure in South Carolina counties. Using available US Census data for 2002, 2007 2012 and 2017 at the county level, the study provides insights on demographic and socioeconomic variables affecting food security. Cross section models for county food availability and rate of food insecurity were specified and estimated by use of advanced least squares regression models. The findings reveal the major factors affecting food availability in South Carolina counties. The empirical analysis shows that an increase in harvested acres and a decrease in a county's unemployment rates will significantly increase food availability. Acres harvested are an indication of the capacity and ability to supply agricultural foods in each county. The coefficients on the harvested acres are positive and significant at the 1% level across all models in all years. Most counties located further north tend to have less food availability. This implies that improving food accessibility and shortening the distance between farms and food markets would increase food availability. c. The Potential Impact of USMCA and other Regional Free Trade Agreements on US Dairy, Poultry and Turkey trade Abstract This study uses static and dynamic gravity models' estimations to identify major determinants of dairy, poultry, and turkey exports. The impacts of USMCA and other regional free trade agreement on exports were analyzed and evaluated. The use of panel data and the panel probit models allowed us to account for missing observations. The GMM estimator proved to be slightly superior to the static estimators. While most results seemed sensitive to model specifications, the GMM results appeared to be unbiased and consistent and were used for inferences. There is evidence that the specification of the gravity model in dynamic form is important. as Including the lagged bilateral trade and fixed effects in the gravity model obviously captures the dynamic trade among trade partners. We controlled for heteroscedasticity, and the multilateral resistance terms. Future regional studies should include panel gravity models and probit specification models in trade research. The impacts of major free trade agreements were analyzed with focus on the USMCA. There are significant trade expansion effects arising from the USMCA. The estimates show that USMCA increased agricultural dairy trade flows by $2.620 million yearly. Results for the poultry and turkey trade were not significant, hence the results suggest that USMCA would increase South Carolina dairy exports, but not poultry exports, by an average of $2.620 million per year solely as a result of complete tariff cuts on US agricultural exports. The findings from dynamic models also reveal that the formation of the EU, ASEAN and MERCOSUR free trade agreements increased aggregate trade flows of dairy, but with insignificant effects on poultry and turkey trade flows. Since the USMCA is a new trade agreement, the limitation in this analysis is that the study evaluated USMCA benefits without regards to whether the benefits are trade creating or diverting. However, more detailed analysis of trade benefits would be a fruitful agenda for future research. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?
Nothing Reported
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
International agricultural trade Research 1. Training Students in International Trade and Food Security Research Two graduate students and one undergraduate student were trained in international trade research. The students were engaged in all activities. Their assignments included collecting data to estimate trade models, literature review, and reading project references. The students provided summaries of selected references for use in the project final bulletin. Graduate students participated in the formation of trade matrix and reporting of results. They complied literature reviews for the project. Graduate students participated in general bulletin development. 2. Food Security Research. We analyzed and evaluated factors affecting food security at national state and county level in South Carolina. o County level food security research. Food security is a research area that has received global and regional level attention. Indeed, there exists a large body of literature on food insecurity at both national and state levels. Fewer studies have focused on factors affecting food insecurity at county levels. The impact is not unform across regions and may vary by county within a state. Using US Census data available every five years from 2002, 2007, 20012, and 2017, we designed cross section model for each year and used the models to analyze and evaluate factors affecting food availability in South Carolina 's forty-six counties. In the study we addressed factors affecting food security in terms of food availability and the number of food-insecure persons in South Carolina counties. The findings reveal the major factors affecting food availability in South Carolina counties. A county's acres harvested are an indication of the capacity and ability to supply agricultural foods in the county. The empirical analysis shows that an increase in harvested acres or a decrease in a county's unemployment rates will significantly increase food availability. The increase in agricultural productivity would increase food availability as shown in most models. The results suggest that counties located further north, tend to have less food availability. This implies that improving food accessibility and shortening the distance between farms and food markets would increase food availability. This behavior is consistent in all four years of study. Other factors such as prevalence of greenhouses and profits from corn sales enhance food availability but the effect does vary by Census year and model specifications. The available data for food insecure persons were available for 2012 and 2017. The agency "Feeding America" provided us the data that included the number of food insecure persons by county. The county of Richland had the highest number of food insecure persons including adults and children in 2012 and in 2017. The county of Greenville had highest number of food insecure children in 2012 and 2017 census years. The county of Greenville registered the largest decline in number of food insecure persons, including children from 2012 to 2017 while the county of Jasper shows least decrease in the number during this period. Similarly, the county of Greenville registered the largest decline in number of food insecure children from 2012 to 2017 while the county of Marion shows no decrease in the number of food insecure children during this period. A comparative description reveals that in the year 2012, seventeen of the twenty-three northern counties had the number of food-insecure persons, including adults and children be below the state average. Six of the twenty-three northern counties had the number of food-insecure persons be above the state average. Ten of twenty-three southern counties had the number of food-insecure be above the state average. Thirteen of the southern counties had the number of food-insecure persons be below the state average. The above ratios remained unchanged in 2017. A description of food insecure children shows differences at county level. In the year 2012, seventeen of the twenty-three northern counties had the number of food-insecure children below the state average. Six of the twenty-three northern counties had the number of food-insecure children above the average while nine of the southern counties had the number of food-insecure children be above the state average. Fourteen of the southern counties had the number of food-insecure children be below the average. o Food security research at national level and potential impact of trade openness on food security The study sought to identify factors affecting food security indicators, notably per capita calories, proteins supply, and food availability. Using data from 1961 to 2017, dynamic panel gravity models are used to address the factors affecting food security within the United States. We looked at the impact of The North American Free Trade Agreement on food security indicators in terms of food supply and per capita calorie consumption. The results show that the lagged dependent variable, and independent variables that include gross domestic product, productivity, farm income, trade openness and NAFTA are major factors affecting food security indicators. In most cases, no significant effect is found for population, and life expectancy. However, we find evidence of a positive and significant impact of NAFTA on food security in terms of food supply. In contrast, we do find a statistically significant negative effect of NAFTA on productivity. Including the interaction term between NAFTA and productivity, the study reveals that NAFTA did not lead to a shift in productivity to enhance food supply. NAFTA effects on food and calorie supply seems to have declined over time. Models of food security indicators in terms of the per capita food availability in tons, and per capita calories supply were specified and evaluated. We examined the impact of agricultural productivity on the level of the food security indicators. Agricultural productivity is proxied by agricultural value added per hectare and cereal production per ton. The findings show that agricultural productivity proxied by cereal production does enhance the level of food security level. However, productivity proxied by agricultural value-added per hectare indicated reduced food security in the study area. This study suggests that lack of sustained agricultural productivity contributes significantly to reducing per capita food availability and calories supply. This finding suggests that there is need to promote agricultural productivity to obtain higher level of food security. The results also suggest that trade openness did not lead to significant increase in food supply and availability. The gross domestic product, farm income, and arable land remain most significant factors affecting food security indicators. 3. International Trade and the Impact of USMCA on agricultural trade flows. Advanced dynamic gravity and probit models of international trade were used to evaluate impact of free trade agreements. The analysis focused on the United States, Mexico, and Canada Agreement (USMCA) and its impact on diary, poultry, and turkey trade flows from South Carolina. There are significant trade expansion effects arising from the USMCA. The estimates show that USMCA increased agricultural dairy trade flows from South Carolina by $2.620 million yearly solely as a result of complete tariff cuts on US agricultural exports to Mexico and Canada. Results for the poultry and turkey trade were not significant. The findings reveal that the EU, ASEAN, and MERCOSUR increase aggregate trade flows of dairy with insignificant effects on poultry and turkey trade. Since the USMCA is a new trade agreement, the USMCA benefits were evaluated without regards to whether the benefits are trade creating or diverting.
Publications
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2021
Citation:
D. Karemera, ASSESSING TRADE BENEFITS OF A TTIP AND THE ROLE OF REGIONAL TRADE FREE BLOCKS ON SOUTH CAROLINA AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS: A STATIC AND DYNAMIC GRAVITY MODEL APPROACH - International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics", Vol 9. N0 4, 2021
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Under Review
Year Published:
2021
Citation:
D. Karemera, Trade Benefits of Regional Free Trade Agreements on State Agricultural Exports and Implications for the 2008 Great Recession , under review for the Journal of Economic Integration
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2019
Citation:
D. Karemera, The Determinants of Food Security in South Carolina and a Comparison with the Southeast Region. School of Business, South Carolina State University, Orangeburg, SC 29117; C. Ndede, 1890 Program, South Carolina State University, Orangeburg, SC 29117. ARD Research Symposium, Jacksonville Florida, March 30 April 3, 2019.
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Progress 10/01/20 to 09/30/21
Outputs
Target Audience: 1. SCSU faculty and Students participated in the discussion and execution of the project activities. 2. Collaboration with USDA agents on food availability data. The research team had multiple conversations and entertained discussions with outside agencies. The research team received support from USDA agents and State Department of Agriculture agent. 3. Academic audience and others with interests in international trade and food safety and food security are reached through publication of research materials such the refeed journal article and working papers series. 4. General audience and the public at large with interest in trade and food safety and food security are also reached through publication of research materials such the refereed journal article and working papers series. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? 1. An undergraduate and two graduate students were trained in international trade and food security research.The students are essential and integral part of the project research team.The undergraduate and graduate students were engaged in multiple activities. Their assignment included collecting needed data to estimate trade models, review of literature and reading references to the project. They conducted library searches and data collection; and retrieved online abstracts of reference papers. The students are asked to reach basic trade papers and retrieved related abstracts. 2. Students were required to review international trade literature and participate at every stage of project activities including production and review of quarterly and yearly reports; and NIFA reports. 3. The project has provided research opportunities to a post doctorate research associate. The research associate has gained experience in international trade research and had opportunity to published research in international trade. 4. Under supervision of the project director, the research associate designed and implemented advanced econometric models to identify food security determinants. The results are used to draft manuscript for possible presentations and subsequent publication. Thus, the project has given the research associate opportunity to build a professional resume. 5. The data programmer and the project director had opportunity to design and created a new variable called" a county location index" that was used to assess the impact of location on food availability. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? 1. Publication and production of Working Papers series are venues of dissemination: Publication: The paper entitled "Assessing Trade Benefits of a TTIP and the Role of Regional Free Trade Blocks on South Carolina Agricultural Exports: A Static and Dynamic Approach" is published in the - International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics", Vol 9. N0 4, pp. 245-261, 2021. Working papers are available: a. An Empirical Assessment of Factors Affecting Regional and Local Food Security. b. Determinants of Local Food Security: c. The Potential Impact of USMCA and other Regional Free Trade Agreements 2. Farmers and rural community survey participants were reached and were made aware of the issued of trade on food security. 3. Survey participants are aware of benefits and challenges of international trade on farm production, exports, and trade 4. Students' participation in survey administration is also opportunity for training and experiential learning. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?
Nothing Reported
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
Student Training in International Trade Research - We trained students in international trade and food security research.Two graduate and one undergraduate student were engaged in project activities. - These students produced research materials that supported project execution.The materials included USDA data on food availability, USDA food security briefs, and state website data. More assignment included collecting data to estimate trade models, review of literature and compiling references to the project. - The graduate students produced tables that are needed in regression modelingand performed graphical representations of certain data such as graphing data on food availability by county using US Census data. - The undergraduate student was productive. She generated needed online data relevant to the analysis of factors affecting food availability and helped in data tabulation during production of the final Bulletin. Food Availability study in South Carolina Counties - The study has identified factors affecting food availability in South Carolina. - Using US Census data available every five years for 2002, 2007, 20012, and 2017, we designed cross section models for each year and used the models to analyze and evaluate factors affecting food availability in South Carolina 's forty-six counties. - In the study, we addressed factors affecting food availability and the number of food-insecure persons in South Carolina. A county's harvested acres are an indication of the capacity and ability to supply agricultural foods in the county.The empirical analysis shows that an increase in harvested acres or a decrease in a county's unemployment rates will significantly increase food availability. The results suggest that counties located further north tend to have less food availability. This implies that improving food accessibility and shortening the distance between farms and food markets would increase food availability. This behavior is consistent is all four years of study. Other factors such as prevalence of greenhouses and profits from corn sales enhance food availability but the effect does vary by Census year and model specifications. - - The data for food insecure persons were available for 2012 and 2017. The agency "Feeding America" provided us the data that included the number of food insecure persons by county. The county of Richland had the highest number of food insecure persons including adults and children in 2012 and in 2017. The county of Greenville had highest number of food insecure children in 2012 and 2017 census years. The county of Greenville registered the largest decline in number of food insecure persons, including children from 2012 to 2017 while the county of Jasper shows least decrease in the number during this period. Similarly, the county of Greenville registered the largest decline in number of food insecure children from 2012 to 2017 while the county of Marion shows no decrease in the number of food insecure children during this period. - - A comparative description reveals that in the year 2012, seventeen of the twenty-three northern counties had the number of food-insecure persons, including adults and children be below the state average. Six of the twenty-three northern counties had the number of food-insecure persons be above the state average. Ten of twenty-three southern counties had the number of food-insecure be above the state average. Thirteen of the southern counties had the number of food-insecure persons be below the state average. The above ratios remained unchanged in 2017. - A description of food insecure children shows differences at county level. In the year 2012, seventeen of the twenty-three northern counties had the number of food-insecure children below the state average. Six of the twenty-three northern counties had the number of food-insecure children above the average while nine of the southern counties had the number of food-insecure children be above the state average. Fourteen of the southern counties had the number of food-insecure children be below the average. During the year 2017, eighteen of the twenty-three northern counties had the number of food-insecure children be below the average while five of the twenty-three northern counties had the number of food-insecure children be above the state average. Ten of the twenty-three southern counties had the number of food-insecure children be above the average. Thirteen of the twenty-three southern counties had the number of food-insecure children be below the average. - - The study sought to identify factors affecting food security indicators, notably per capita calorie supply. Using data from 1961 to 2017, dynamic panel gravity models are used to address the factors affecting food security within the United States. We looked at the impact of The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on food and per capita calorie supply. The results show that the lagged dependent variable, and independent variables that include gross domestic product, productivity, farm income, trade openness and NAFTA are major factors affecting food security indicators. In most cases, no significant effect is found for population, and life expectancy. - However, we find evidence of a positive and significant impact of NAFTA on food security in terms of food supply. Including the interaction term between NAFTA and productivity, the study reveals that NAFTA did not lead to a shift in productivity to enhance food supply. NAFTA effects on food and calorie supply seems to have declined over time. - Models for food availability, and capita calories supply were evaluated. We examined the impact of agricultural productivity on the level of the food security indicators. Agricultural productivity is proxied by agricultural value added per hectare and cereal production per ton. - The findings show that agricultural productivity proxied by cereal production does enhance the level of food security. However, productivity proxied by agricultural value-added per hectare indicated reduced food security in the study area. This finding suggests that the lack of sustained agricultural productivity significantly contributes to reduced food availability and calories supply. This finding suggests that there is need to promote agricultural productivity to obtain higher level of food security. The results also suggest that trade openness did not lead to significant increase in food security. The gross domestic product, farm income, and arable land remain significant factors affecting food security indicators. - - International Trade and the Impact of USMCA on agricultural trade flows. - Advanced dynamic gravity and probit models of international trade were used to evaluate impact of free trade agreements. The analysis focused on the United States, Mexico, and Canada Agreement (USMCA) and its impact on diary, poultry, and turkey exports from South Carolina. The estimates show that USMCA increased dairy trade flows from South Carolina by $2.620 million yearly, solely as a result of complete tariff cuts on S.C. exports to Mexico and Canada. Results for the poultry and turkey trade were not significant. - The findings reveal that the EU, ASEAN, and MERCOSUR increase trade flows of dairy with insignificant effects on poultry and turkey trade. - The limitation of this result is that the USMCA is a new agreement and its trade potentials have not yet realized. Simulation models were used to predict potential trade increased from the USMCA without regards to whether the Agreement is trade creating or diverting. Collaboration with Michigan State University The subagreement with Michigan State University where Dr. Titus Awokuse is an outside Project Collaborator is being implemented. Dr. Awokuse indicated that data collection and analysis have been completed and the final subagreement report is forthcoming.
Publications
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2021
Citation:
D. Karemera, Assessing Trade Benefits of a TTIP and the Role of Regional Free Trade Blocks on South Carolina Agricultural Exports: A Static and Dynamic Approach is published in the - International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics", Vol 9. N0 4, pp. 245-261, 2021.
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Progress 10/01/19 to 09/30/20
Outputs
Target Audience: SCSU faculty and students Attendance at professional meetings such the ARD or meetings of American Agricultural Economics Association Interface with farmers during food security survey administration Seminars to farmers in South Carolina Academic audience and others with interests in international trade and food safety and food security Academic audience with interest in trade and food safety and food security Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? The students are essential and an integral part of the project research team. An undergraduate was trained in international trade and food security research. The student was engaged in multiple activities. The assignment given to the student included collecting needed data to estimate trade models, review of literature and reading references to the project. She did library searches and data collection and retrieved online abstracts written in papers. The students are asked to read basic trade papers and retrieve abstracts and draft summaries of read abstracts in included references. A graduate student is pursuing training in international trade research. Students are required to review international trade literature and participate at every stage of project activities including production and review of quarterly and yearly reports; and NIFA reports. The project has provided opportunity to a research associate who is gaining experience in international trade research and opportunity to publish research in international trade. Under supervision of the project director, the research associate designs and implement advanced econometric models to identify food security determinants. The results are used to draft manuscript for possible presentations and subsequent publication. Thus the project has given the research associate opportunity to build a professional resume. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? Working Series and submission to journals for publication consideration remain major venues for dissemination. Two major manuscripts are available and being revised for submission to a professional journal.The aim is to identify and evaluate factors affecting local and regional food security with focus on the role of agricultural productivity, Research and Development expenditure, and trade openness. Submission to professional journals are another venue of dissemination of research results. Two papers are being reviewed to submission to professional journal for possible publication. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Complete a report on the impacts of Regional Free Trade Agreements, USMCA and on food trade. Complete a report on cross county factors affecting food security in South Carolina. Submit a paper entitled Title: "An Assessment of global and regional Food Security with a comparison with US Southeast". Provide state- by- state assessment of food security for the next three decades and potential impacts of food shortages in developing countries of Africa and Asia on US food security and agricultural production, exports and trade. Draft and submit a manuscript: Trade creation, Diversion, Openness of Regional Free Trade agreement on state agricultural exports". Draft final manuscript.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
We updated our database on international trade agricultural trade flows and collected data on food security measures. The food security indicators are now available. Data on several determinants of food security were collected and we included state agricultural productivity, research and development expenditures, agricultural exports and imports as proxy for openness. We examine the impact of agricultural productivity on the level of food security. Two different indicators used on this study include per capita food supply and the supply of per capita calories. Further, Agricultural productivity is proxied in this study by agricultural value added per hectare and cereal production per ton. In addition, we also include such as GDP per capita, farm income, population, life expectancy, arable land and trade openness which are important determinants for food security indicators. Both linear and dynamic specifications are used in this study too food security indicators. The findings show that agricultural productivity proxied by cereal production does not affect the level of food security level. However, productivity proxied by agricultural value indicated reduced food security in the study area. This study suggests that lack of sustained agricultural productivity in the study area contributes significantly to reducing per capita food availability and calories supply in the study area. Too see the impact of regional food trade agreement over time, and the indirect impact of NAFTA on food security, we also include NAFTA and the interaction with productivity. Empirical results show that agricultural productivity proxied by agricultural value added does have a negative effect on food supply and calories supply, suggesting that NAFTA over time impairs productivity. This reveals that there is need to promote agricultural productivity in the study area in order to obtain higher level of food security. The trade impact of food security was estimated using static and dynamic panel gravity models.
Publications
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Progress 10/01/18 to 09/30/19
Outputs
Target Audience: SCSU faculty and Students Attendance at professional meetings such the ARD or meetings of American Agricultural Economics Association Interface with farmers during food security survey administration Seminars to farmers in South Carolina Academic audience and others with interests in international trade and food safety and food security Academic audience with interest in trade and food safety and food security Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? An undergraduate was trained in international trade and food security research. The students are essential and integral part of the project research team. The undergraduate and graduate student were engaged in multiple activities. Their assignment included collecting needed data to estimate trade models, review of literature and reading references to the project. She did library searches and data collection and retrieved online abstracts produced of papers. The students are asked to reach basic trade papers and retrieved abstracts. Students are require to review international trade literature and participate at every stage of project activities including production and review of quarterly and yearly reports; and NIFA reports. The project has provided opportunity to a post doctorate research associate who is gaining experience in international trade research and opportunity to published research in international trade. Under supervision of the project director, the research associate designs and implement advanced econometric models to identify food security determinants. The results are used to draft manuscript for possible presentations and subsequent publication. Thus the project has given the research associate opportunity to build a professional resume. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?1. Conference presentation is a venue to disseminate research results. Dr. Karemera presented a research paper at the ARD conference in Jacksonville, in April 2019. The presentation is titled" The Determinants of Food Security in South Carolina and a Comparison with the Southeast Region" The aim is to identify and evaluate factors affecting local and regional food security with focus on the role of agricultural productivity, Research and Development expenditure, and trade openness. The abstract of the presentation is as follow: The study identified and investigated the determinants of food security in South Carolina and provide a comparison with the US southeast region. We addressed the effect of agricultural productivity, cereal production, trade openness on different food security measures with focus on the US southeast region. Two major food security indicators used in the study include per capita total food available in tones and per capita nutrient supply. The degree to which factors such as agricultural productivity, cereal production, farmer education, farming population, farm income, and trade openness affect food security measures is analyzed. We use dynamic panel data covering 48 states from 1980 to 2017 to identify factor affecting regional and local food security in the South east region. It is expected that agricultural productivity, cereal production per acre, real farm income growth significantly enhances food security measures. Early results suggest that increases in agricultural productivity will increase level of food security. The impact of trade openness on food security and the extent to which costal states benefit from free trade agreements is discussed. Early results suggest that trade openness may be a factor affecting food security and that costal states with more agricultural production capacity benefit most from international free trade agreements. We find that increases in agricultural productivity and real farm incomes will increase food security levels. 2. Farmers and rural community survey participants are aware of impacts of trade on food security. 3. Survey participants are aware of benefits and challenges of international trade on farm production, exports and trade 4. Students participation in survey administration is also opportunity for training and experiential learning. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?1. Provide state- by- state assessment of food security for the next three decades and potential impacts of food shortages in developing countries of Africa and Asia on US food security and agricultural production, exports and trade 2. Submitted a research paper "A State-by-state level assessment of food security for the next three decades and potential impacts of food shortages aboard on US food security and agricultural production, exports and tradeto professional Trade/ Agribusiness journals for publication consideration: 3. Draft and submit a manuscript: Trade creation, Diversion, Openness of Regional Free Trade agreement on state agricultural exports" 4. Derive a manuscript titled " The Potential Impacts of the USMCA and other International Free Trade Agreements on regional and global food security"
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
Student Training in International Trade Research We trained students in international trade and food security research. The students were engaged in different project activities. Their assignment included collecting needed data to estimate trade models, review of literature and reading references to the project. They did library searches and data collection and retrieved online abstracts produced of papers and performed other activities as asked by the project director. Food Security survey in South Carolina Food security survey was completed analyzed. The survey questions included instruments related to farm and food security characteristics. In particular, net farm income gross farm income and farmers' travel to nearest farm markets are factors affecting food security in terms of availability and access. The survey was administrated to 131 respondents in several farm districts in South Carolina. The 1890 extension agents participated in the survey administration. Results show that at least 85.70 % of small farmers in Orangeburg and 94.74% in Greenwood farm districts have respectively a net farm income of less than $10,000.00. There is no small farmer with over $30,000 in annual net farm income. The survey included only small farmers in selected farm districts. About 24.91 % of small farmers in Orangeburg and Greenwood counties travel more than 51 miles to reach their products markets and 34.43% of small farmers travel between 41 to 50 miles to reach 92 products markets. Therefore, distance to markets may be affecting food available and access in farm districts. The survey questions are also intended to elucidate farmers and community understanding of benefits and challenges of free trade agreements such as the NAFTA, and EU, ASEAN, AND MERCUSUR and the renegotiated NAFTA that is waiting ratification by US Congress. The questionnaire is scheduled for administration to SC rural farmers with assistance by 1890 Extension agents in February 2019. The USMCA was signed into law on January 29, 2020. The potential effects of USMCA are addressed in the next reporting period. Food security and Agricultural productivity -- The determinants of food security were estimated using static and dynamic panel gravity models. Seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) and generalized method of moments (GMM) are applied to estimate the gravity equations/models. Dynamic GMM models display more consistent coefficients and are discussed in the present report. Most parameters have the expected signs, and are significant. 1. Effect of income, population, openness and Life expectancy on Food security levels Results show that significant and positive coefficients for the lagged dependent variable in each model, as expected. There are no significant effects on the level of food security indicators for population, and life expectancy in each model. The results suggest that a rise in GDP leads to increased per capita calorie consumption in the country. With respect to farm income, coefficients are positive and statistically significant, showing that farm income increases significantly food supply and calories supply. There are no significant impact of trade openness on food security indicators, when agricultural productivity is proxied by agricultural value added. Trade openness has a negative impact on food security indicators. 2. Effect of Agricultural Productivity on Food security levels Agricultural productivity is proxied by two variables: agricultural value added and cereal production. With respect to cereal production as a proxy for productivity, the empirical results show that there is no significant effect of productivity on the food security level. The negative coefficient for agricultural productivity in this study reveals that lack of sustained agricultural productivity contributes significantly to a decrease in the level of food security. As noted by Ogundary and Akowuse (2016), we believe strongly this finding align with the literature on impact of agricultural productivity on poverty level and food security level. This finding is confirmed throughout this study. In further analysis, where we include NAFTA dummy variable and the interaction with the agricultural productivity, we found evidence of a negative impact of productivity on food security indicators. However the relation is statistically significant on model 1, 3. Effect of NAFTA on Food security levels To see the direct impact of the regional free trade agreement on the level of food security, NAFTA dummy is also included in the equation. Results show that NAFTA has a positive impact of food security levels, suggesting that regional trade agreements between NAFTA countries leads to an increase in per capita food security level. 4. Effect of NAFTA and productivity on Food security levels When agricultural productivity is represented by agricultural value added, the coefficient of the interaction term between NAFTA and productivity is statistically significant and negative in each model. This negative coefficient shows evidence that agricultural productivity leads to reduced food security levels, given the positive coefficient of NAFTA and the negative coefficient for agricultural productivity. In summary, the study examines the impact of agricultural productivity on the level of food security. Two different indicators used on this study include Per capita food supply and per capita calories supplies. Further, Agricultural productivity is proxied in this study by agricultural value added per hectare and cereal production per tones. In addition we also includes such as GDP per capita, farm income, population, life expectancy, arable land and trade openness which are important determinants for food security indicators. Both linear and dynamic specifications are used in this study to food security indicators. Results show that agricultural productivity proxied by cereal production does not affect the level of food security level. However, productivity proxied by agricultural value added lead to reduced food security indicators in the study area. This study suggests that lack of sustained agricultural productivity in the study area contributes significantly to reducing per capita food availability and calories supply in the study area. We also includes NAFTA and the interaction with productivity. Empirical results show that agricultural productivity proxied by agricultural value added does have a negative effect on food supply and calories supply, suggesting that NAFTA over time impairs productivity. This reveals that there is need to promote agricultural productivity in the study area in order to obtain higher level of food security. International trade and Food Security. We updated our database on international trade agricultural trade flows. We collected data on food security measures. Three food security indicators are now available: The food availability, by state and world region; calorie consumption; and protein consumption. Food security simulation models are designed and will be used to address impact of food shortage abroad ON US agricultural prices and national price inflation. We designed econometric models of global and regional food security determinants. The dynamic models of food security are being implemented to identify and evaluate determinants of U. S. food security regionally and globally. Collaboration with Michigan State University A formal subagreements with Michigan State University where Dr. Titus Awokuse is an outside Project Collaborator was completed and submitted to Michigan State University. Dr. Awokuse and his team will work to determine factors affecting global and regional food security. ARD Presentation April 2019 A 1890 research paper entitled " The Determinants of Food Security in South Carolina and a Comparison with the Southeast Region" was presented at the biannual conference of ARD in Jacksonville Florida in march 30 -April 3 2019.
Publications
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2019
Citation:
Karemera, David The Determinants of Food Security in South Carolina and a Comparison with the Southeast Region at the ARD conference in Jacksonville, in April 2019.
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Progress 08/01/18 to 09/30/18
Outputs
Target Audience: SCSU faculty and students Attendance at professional meetings such the ARD or meetings of American Agricultural Economics Association Interface with farmers during food security survey administration Seminars to farmers in South Carolina Academic audience and others with interests in international trade and food safety and food security Academic audience with interest in trade and food safety and food security Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? An undergraduate was trained in international trade and food security research. The students are essential and integral part of the project research team. The student was engaged in multiple activities. Their assignment included collecting needed data to estimate trade models, review of literature and reading references to the project. She did library searches and data collection and retrieved online abstracts produced of papers. The students are asked to reach basic trade papers and retrieved abstracts. A graduate student is pursuing training in international trade research. Students are require to review international trade literature and participate at every stage of project activities including production and review of quarterly and yearly reports; and NIFA reports. The project has provided opportunity to a post doctorate research associate who is gaining experience in international trade research and opportunity to published research in international trade. Under supervision of the project director, the research associate designs and implement advanced econometric models to identify food security determinants. The results are used to draft manuscript for possible presentations and subsequent publication. Thus the project has given the research associate opportunity to build a professional resume How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? Conference presentation is a venue to disseminate research results. Dr. Karemera will present a research paper at the ARD conference in Jacksonville, in April 2019. The presentation is titled" The Determinants of Food Security in South Carolina and a Comparison with the Southeast Region" The aim is to identify and evaluate factors affecting local and regional food security with focus on the role of agricultural productivity, Research and Development expenditure, and trade openness. Farmers and rural community survey participants are aware of impacts of trade on food security. Survey participants are aware of benefits and challenges of international trade on farm production, exports and trade Students participation in survey administration is also opportunity for training and experiential learning. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Present a research paper at the bi-annual meetings of the Pan African Enterprise Research Council in Fort Hare, South Africa in May. Title: "An Assessment of global and regional Food Security with a comparison with US Southeast " Provide state- by- state assessment of food security for the next three decades and potential impacts of food shortages in developing countries of Africa and Asia on US food security and agricultural production, exports and trade Submitted a research paper "A State-by-state level assessment of food security for the next three decades and potential impacts of food shortages aboard on US food security and agricultural production, exports and tradeto professional Trade/ Agribusiness journals for publication consideration: Draft and submit a manuscript: Trade creation, Diversion, Openness of Regional Free Trade agreement on state agricultural exports" Derive a manuscript titled " The Potential Impacts of a Renegotiated NAFTA and other International Free Trade Agreements on regional and global food security
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
The project is only one semester old. We held initial project meetings to review project objectives and assignment of responsibilities. The following activists were completed during the fall 2018 semester. Student Training in International Trade Research We started training of students in international trade and food security research. The students were engaged in different project activities. Their assignment included collecting needed data to estimate trade models, review of literature and reading references to the project. She did library searches and data collection and retrieved online abstracts produced of papers and performed other activities as asked by the project director. A graduate student is now working to organize collected data in matrix form used to estimate factors affecting regional food security. The student is a trainee in international food security research. The student provided summary review of selected references for use in preparation of presentations at the upcoming ARD meetings in Jacksonville, April 2019 Food Security survey in South Carolina Food security survey was completed. The survey questions were drafted with assistance from the 1890 Senior Extension agent. The survey objectives are to collect data on household's food security forfarmers and rural families. The survey questions are also intended to elucidate farmers and community understanding of benefits and challenges of free trade agreements such as the NAFTA, and EU, ASEAN, AND MERCUSUR and the renegotiated NAFTA that is waiting ratification by US Congress. The questionnaire is now scheduled for administration to SC rural farmers with assistance by 1890 Extension agents in February 2019. International trade and Food Security. We updated our database on international trade agricultural trade flows. We collected data on food security measures. Three food security indicators are now available: The food availability, by state and world region; calorie consumption; and protein consumption. Data on several determinants of food security were collected and include state agricultural productivity, research and development expenditures, agricultural exports and imports. We designed econometric models of local and regional food security determinants. The dynamic models of food security are being implemented to identify and evaluate determinants of U. S. food security. Collaboration with Michigan State University A formal subagreements with Michigan State University where Dr. Titus Awokuse is an outside Project Collaborator was completed and submitted to Michigan State University. Dr. Awokuse and his team will work to determine factors affecting global and regional food security. ARD Presentation April 2019 A 1890 research paper entitled " The Determinants of Food Security in South Carolina and a Comparison with the Southeast Region" is being prepared for presentation at the biannual conference of ARD in Jacksonville Florida in march 30 -April 3 2019.
Publications
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2019
Citation:
D. Karemera*, The Determinants of Food Security in South Carolina and a Comparison with the Southeast Region.School of Business, South Carolina State University, Orangeburg, SC 29117; C. Ndede, 1890 Program, South Carolina State University, Orangeburg, SC 29117. ARD Research Symposium, Jacksonville Florida, March 30 April 3, 2019.
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