Source: CORNELL UNIVERSITY submitted to NRP
EVALUATING THE NASH AS A DRIVER OF S2S DROUGHT PROPAGATION IN THE EASTERN US
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
COMPLETE
Funding Source
AFRI COMPETITIVE GRANT
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
1015566
Grant No.
2018-67011-27986
Cumulative Award Amt.
$92,785.00
Proposal No.
2017-06913
Multistate No.
(N/A)
Project Start Date
May 15, 2018
Project End Date
Nov 1, 2019
Grant Year
2018
Program Code
[A7101]- AFRI Predoctoral Fellowships
Recipient Organization
CORNELL UNIVERSITY
(N/A)
ITHACA,NY 14853
Performing Department
CALS - Bio and Envir Engineeri
Non Technical Summary
The proposed research will develop a theoretical framework for developing sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) predictions of agricultural drought risk in the Eastern U.S. by evaluating the response of observed climate variables to the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH), a semi-permanent anticyclone over the Atlantic basin and a primary driver of drought variability in several key agricultural regions. This framework will be developed though three initiatives: 1) A diagnostic assessment of the predictability of surface climatic variables associated with demand and supply side agricultural drought based on the characteristics of the NASH at S2S timescales. 2) Development of a predictive statistical model that links NASH characteristics to the probability of agricultural drought propagation across the Eastern U.S. and 3) Evaluation of statistical model predictions against state-of-the-art, numerical weather model S2S hindcasts recently made available through the Seasonal to Sub-Seasonal Prediction Project database. The proposed research supports AFRI Farm Bill Priority Area 4: Bioenergy, natural resources, and the environment by providing the theoretical framework for drought prediction tools that will assist farmers in "mitigating impacts of abiotic (water) constraints on food production caused by climatic variability," and will contribute to a "better understanding of how climate change effects agriculture." Results from this work will be integrated into S2S agricultural drought prediction tools under development at Cornell through the Climate Smart Farming Program and the Northeast Regional Climate Center.
Animal Health Component
50%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
50%
Applied
50%
Developmental
(N/A)
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
13202102070100%
Knowledge Area
132 - Weather and Climate;

Subject Of Investigation
0210 - Water resources;

Field Of Science
2070 - Meteorology and climatology;
Goals / Objectives
Career development:Explore the response and long-lead prediction of agriculturally relevant surface climate based on fluctuations in the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH).Become an educator of the next generation of agricultural scientists; pursue a higher education certification from Cornell?s Center for Teaching Excellence.Learn how to integrate innovative pedagogical practice into current teaching role and future educational opportunities.Pursue an integration of research into ongoing extension efforts at Cornell.Work collaboratively with researchers in computational hydrology, ecohydrology, atmospheric science, agronomy, and crop science.Mentoring:Set clear and rigorous benchmarks in terms of publication, presentation, and outreach of the proposed research.Provide support in achievement of these benchmarks through technical feedback, support with analytical design, writing, and editing.Provide exposure to developed professional networks and current teaching and extension opportunities.Provide collaborative feedback through annual committee meetings.Research:Obj. 1: Complete a diagnostic analysis of how sub-seasonal to seasonal (2 week - 3 month or S2S) variability in the intensity and location of the NASH impacts P and PET over the Eastern U.S.Obj. 2: Develop a statistical model that relates variability in P and PET to the temporal evolution of the intensity and location of the NASH at S2S timescales.Obj. 3: Evaluate the accuracy and precision of P and PET forecasts over the Eastern U.S. based on the predictive model (Obj. 2) and a state-of-the-art database of S2S reforecasts.
Project Methods
We will use statistical methods to characterize modes of variability in the position of the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH) during the North American growing season (approximately April through August). We will then evaluate whether these modes of variability can be used to predict shifting probability of drought propagation in the Eastern United States at timescales relevant to agricultural stakeholders for mitigative management (subseasonal to seasonal or S2S, 2 weeks-3 months). If the NASH can contribute useful information on the risk of drought propogation, a predictive model will be developed linking the NASH to Eastern US S2S hydroclimatic variability. The model will be developed forapplication within the Northeast Drought Atlas.

Progress 05/15/18 to 05/14/20

Outputs
Target Audience:The three main target audiences reached during this reporting period included academic 1) researchers, 2) undergraduate students, and 3) community stakeholders in central New York. The efforts to reach these audiences included: 1) Two peer-reviewed journal articles published, two abstracts presented at national scientific meetings, and one journal article in preparation. 2) A community-service learning ArcGIS teaching module was designed for BEE 4300: Hydrologic Engineering in a Changing Climate to teach undergraduate learners how to use GIS software to characterize hydroclimatic risk. 3) Altimetric.com has reported nine mentions of results from "Carter E and Steinschneider S. (2018). Hydroclimatic Driverse of Extreme Flood on Lake Ontario. Water Resources Research" in local, state, and national news outlets. Changes/Problems:The proposed research considered the role that one atmospheric feature. The North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH), played in improving 3 month-2 week hydroclimatic forecasts in the central and eastern United States. The research as practiced considered the forecast skill offered by the NASH and other atmospheric features which are jointly associated with anomalies in the geostrophic component, ageostrophic component, and total moisture content of climatological southwesterly mass flux which dominates hydroloclimatological processes across the North American continental interior during the summer season. In addition to assessing drought risk, these forecasts were used to assess flood risks; specifically in relation to record-breaking flooding seen in the Eastern Great Lakes Basin during the springs of 2016 and 2019. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? -The project director has enrolled in a program to learn effective pedagogical approaches to teach and mentor diverse undergraduate and graduate learners. The project director was given the opportunity to design and implement a community-service learning based ArcGIS teaching module for a capstone water resources engineering course at Cornell University. The project director's professional network has been expanded through the participation in two national conferences. The project director served as first author on multiple peer-reviewed journal articles; and as a reviewer for 3 journal articles on related topics. The project director has secured a joint NASA-USGS Postdoctoral Fellowship The project director is under contract with Syracuse University for the position of Assistant Professor of Hydrologic Engineering How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? Results of forecasting work concerning Lake Ontario have been disseminated to the general public through coverage in local and national news outlets. Results have been communicated to the academic community by way of two peer-reviewed journal articles and two presentations at national scientific meetings. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Career development: A comprehensive dataset of all potential S2S indices which could be used to predict hydroclimatic variability across the continental interior was compiled from a thorough review of the literature, strengthening the project director's understanding of the state-of-the-art understanding of regional climate science and empirical forecasting methods. The project director enrolled in the "Next Generation Institute;" an innovative career-development program designed to prepare future faculty members to effectively increase and retain diversity in STEM fields in academic institutions. The project director build a diverse interdisciplinary network which included climate scientists, statisticians, and government researchers at Cornell University and nationally. Mentoring: Clear benchmarks for publications, presentations, and outreach were established; deliverables were produced within established timeframe. Project director recieved her PhD in May of 2019, and will be accepting a full-time tenure-track Assistant Professor position at an R1 University after a one year deferral to post-doc at NASA Ames. Research: Research objectives 1 and 2 have been met; work on research objective 3 has resulted in one peer-reviewed publication.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2019 Citation: Carter, Elizabeth; Steinschneider, Scott. (2019). Feature engineering for robust S2S ensemble forecasts for water resources and agricultural management in the Midwestern United States. In preparation.
  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Carter, Elizabeth Kathryn. (2019). Data-driven approaches to inform climate-adaptive management in agriculture and water resources systems. Dissertation. Cornell University.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Knighton, James; Pleiss , Geoff; Steinschneider, Scott; Carter, Elizabeth; Lyon,Steven; Walter, M. Todd. (2019). Reproduction of regional precipitation and discharge extremes with meso-scale climate products via machine learning: an evaluation for the Eastern CONUS. Journal of Hydrometeorology.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Carter, Elizabeth; Melkonian, Jeffrey; Steinschneider, Scott; Riha, Susan. (2018). Yield response to climate, management, and genotype: a large-scale observational analysis to identify climate-adaptive crop management practices in high-input maize systems. Environmental Research Letters, 13-11.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Carter, Elizabeth; Steinschneider, Scott. (2018). Hydroclimatological Drivers of Extreme Floods on Lake Ontario. Water Resources Research. 54: 4461-4478.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Carter, Elizabeth; Melkonian, Jeffrey; Steinschneider, Scott; Riha, Susan. (2018). Spatial gradients in management impact analysis of crop yield response to climate at large spatial scales. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 256: 242-252.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2019 Citation: Tonitto, Christina; Woodbury, Peter; Carter, Elizabeth; McLellan, Eileen. (2019). N balance as a metric for estimating N2O flux from grain agroecosystems. In submission, Science of the Total Environment.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Carter, Elizabeth; Hain, Christopher; Anderson, Martha; Steinschneider, Scott. (2018). A water balance based, spatiotemporal evaluation of terrestrial evapotranspiration products across the contiguous United States. Journal of Hydrometeorology. 19: 891-905.


Progress 05/15/18 to 11/01/19

Outputs
Target Audience:The three main target audiences reached during this reporting period included academic 1) researchers, 2) undergraduate students, and 3) community stakeholders in central New York. The efforts to reach these audiences included: 1) Two peer-reviewed journal articles published, two abstracts presented at national scientific meetings, and one journal article in preparation. 2) A community-service learning ArcGIS teaching module was designed for BEE 4300: Hydrologic Engineering in a Changing Climate to teach undergraduate learners how to use GIS software to characterize hydroclimatic risk. 3) Altimetric.com has reported nine mentions of results from "Carter E and Steinschneider S. (2018). Hydroclimatic Driverse of Extreme Flood on Lake Ontario. Water Resources Research" in local, state, and national news outlets. Changes/Problems:The proposed research considered the role that one atmospheric feature. The North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH), played in improving 3 month-2 week hydroclimatic forecasts in the central and eastern United States. The research as practiced considered the forecast skill offered by the NASH and other atmospheric features which are jointly associated with anomalies in the geostrophic component, ageostrophic component, and total moisture content of climatological southwesterly mass flux which dominates hydroloclimatological processes across the North American continental interior during the summer season. In addition to assessing drought risk, these forecasts were used to assess flood risks; specifically in relation to record-breaking flooding seen in the Eastern Great Lakes Basin during the springs of 2016 and 2019. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? -The project director has enrolled in a program to learn effective pedagogical approaches to teach and mentor diverse undergraduate and graduate learners. The project director was given the opportunity to design and implement a community-service learning based ArcGIS teaching module for a capstone water resources engineering course at Cornell University. The project director's professional network has been expanded through the participation in two national conferences. The project director served as first author on multiple peer-reviewed journal articles; and as a reviewer for 3 journal articles on related topics. The project director has secured a joint NASA-USGS Postdoctoral Fellowship The project director is under contract with Syracuse University for the position of Assistant Professor of Hydrologic Engineering How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? Results of forecasting work concerning Lake Ontario have been disseminated to the general public through coverage in local and national news outlets. Results have been communicated to the academic community by way of two peer-reviewed journal articles and two presentations at national scientific meetings. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Career development: A comprehensive dataset of all potential S2S indices which could be used to predict hydroclimatic variability across the continental interior was compiled from a thorough review of the literature, strengthening the project director's understanding of the state-of-the-art understanding of regional climate science and empirical forecasting methods. The project director enrolled in the "Next Generation Institute;" an innovative career-development program designed to prepare future faculty members to effectively increase and retain diversity in STEM fields in academic institutions. The project director build a diverse interdisciplinary network which included climate scientists, statisticians, and government researchers at Cornell University and nationally. Mentoring: Clear benchmarks for publications, presentations, and outreach were established; deliverables were produced within established timeframe. Project director recieved her PhD in May of 2019, and will be accepting a full-time tenure-track Assistant Professor position at an R1 University after a one year deferral to post-doc at NASA Ames. Research: Research objectives 1 and 2 have been met; work on research objective 3 has resulted in one peer-reviewed publication.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2019 Citation: Carter, Elizabeth; Steinschneider, Scott. (2019). Feature engineering for robust S2S ensemble forecasts for water resources and agricultural management in the Midwestern United States. In preparation.
  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Carter, Elizabeth Kathryn. (2019). Data-driven approaches to inform climate-adaptive management in agriculture and water resources systems. Dissertation. Cornell University.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Knighton, James; Pleiss , Geoff; Steinschneider, Scott; Carter, Elizabeth; Lyon,Steven; Walter, M. Todd. (2019). Reproduction of regional precipitation and discharge extremes with meso-scale climate products via machine learning: an evaluation for the Eastern CONUS. Journal of Hydrometeorology.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Carter, Elizabeth; Melkonian, Jeffrey; Steinschneider, Scott; Riha, Susan. (2018). Yield response to climate, management, and genotype: a large-scale observational analysis to identify climate-adaptive crop management practices in high-input maize systems. Environmental Research Letters, 13-11.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Carter, Elizabeth; Steinschneider, Scott. (2018). Hydroclimatological Drivers of Extreme Floods on Lake Ontario. Water Resources Research. 54: 4461-4478.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Carter, Elizabeth; Hain, Christopher; Anderson, Martha; Steinschneider, Scott. (2018). A water balance based, spatiotemporal evaluation of terrestrial evapotranspiration products across the contiguous United States. Journal of Hydrometeorology. 19: 891-905.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Carter, Elizabeth; Melkonian, Jeffrey; Steinschneider, Scott; Riha, Susan. (2018). Spatial gradients in management impact analysis of crop yield response to climate at large spatial scales. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 256: 242-252.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2019 Citation: Tonitto, Christina; Woodbury, Peter; Carter, Elizabeth; McLellan, Eileen. (2019). N balance as a metric for estimating N2O flux from grain agroecosystems. In submission, Science of the Total Environment.


Progress 05/15/18 to 05/14/19

Outputs
Target Audience:The three main target audiences reached during this reporting period included academic 1) researchers, 2) undergraduate students, and 3) community stakeholders in central New York. The efforts to reach these audiences included: 1) Two peer-reviewed journal articles published, two abstracts presented at national scientific meetings, and one journal article in preparation. 2) A community-service learning ArcGIS teaching module was designed for BEE 4300: Hydrologic Engineering in a Changing Climate to teach undergraduate learners how to use GIS software to characterize hydroclimatic risk. 3) Altimetric.com has reported nine mentions of results from "Carter E and Steinschneider S. (2018). Hydroclimatic Driverse of Extreme Flood on Lake Ontario. Water Resources Research" in local, state, and national news outlets. Changes/Problems:The proposed research considered the role that one atmospheric feature. The North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH), played in improving 3 month-2 week hydroclimatic forecasts in the central and eastern United States. The research as practiced considered the forecast skill offered by the NASH and other atmospheric features which are jointly associated with anomalies in the geostrophic component, ageostrophic component, and total moisture content of climatological southwesterly mass flux which dominates hydroloclimatological processes across the North American continental interior during the summer season. In addition to assessing drought risk, these forecasts were used to assess flood risks; specifically in relation to record-breaking flooding seen in the Eastern Great Lakes Basin during the springs of 2016 and 2019. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?-The project director has enrolled in a program to learn effective pedagogical approaches to teach and mentor diverse undergraduate and graduate learners. -The project director was given the opportunity to design and implement a community-service learning based ArcGIS teaching module for a capstone water resources engineering course at Cornell University. -The project director's professional network has been expanded through the participation in two national conferences. -The project director served as first author on multiple peer-reviewed journal articles; and as a reviewer for 3 journal articles on related topics. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?-Results of forecasting work concerning Lake Ontario have been disseminated to the general public through coverage in local and national news outlets. -Results have been communicated to the academic community by way of two peer-reviewed journal articles and two presentations at national scientific meetings. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?-A third peer-reviewed publication that is in preparation will be submitted. -Work on comparing skill and bias of empirical S2S forecasts to numerical S2S forecast will begin.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Career development: A comprehensive dataset of all potential S2S indices which could be used to predict hydroclimatic variability across the continental interior was compiled from a thorough review of the literature, strengthening the project director's understanding of the state-of-the-art understanding of regional climate science and empirical forecasting methods. The project director enrolled in the "Next Generation Institute;" an innovative career-development program designed to prepare future faculty members to effectively increase and retain diversity in STEM fields in academic institutions. The project director build a diverse interdisciplinary network which included climate scientists, statisticians, and government researchers at Cornell University and nationally. Mentoring: Clear benchmarks for publications, presentations, and outreach were established; deliverables were produced within established timeframe. Project director recieved her PhD in May of 2019, and will be accepting a full-time tenure-track Assistant Professor position at an R1 University after a one year deferral to post-doc at NASA Ames. Research: Research objectives 1 and 2 have been met; work on research objective 3 is ongoing.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Carter E and Steinschneider S (2018). Hydroclimatological drivers of extreme floods on Lake Ontario. Water Resources Research. 54: 4461-4478.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Carter E, Melkonian J, Riha S, Steinschneider S. (2018). Yidl response to climate, management, and genotype: a large-scale observational analysis to identify climate-adaptive crop management practices in high-input maize systems. Environmental Research Letters, 13-11.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Carter E and Steinschneider S. (2018). "The potential of hydroclimatic forecasts to inform lake level management on Lake Ontario." Abstract 345871, 2018 AGU Fall Meeting, Washington DC, Dec 11, 2018.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Carter E, Melkonian J, Riha S, Steinschneider S. (2018). "Substituting space for time (when you don't have enough): what spatial trends in crop management can tell us about climate-smart farming under climate extremes," Abstract presented at 2018 Annual Meeting, ASABE, Detroit, MI, July 31 2018.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Other Year Published: 2019 Citation: Carter E, Steinscheider S, "Feature engineering for robust S2S precipitation forecasts in the Midwestern United States." in preparation.