Source: PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY submitted to
ECONOMIC RESTRUCTURING, DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE, AND INCOME INEQUALITY IN RURAL AMERICA
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
TERMINATED
Funding Source
AFRI COMPETITIVE GRANT
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
1015315
Grant No.
2018-67023-27646
Project No.
PENW-2017-08338
Proposal No.
2017-08338
Multistate No.
(N/A)
Program Code
A1661
Project Start Date
Mar 1, 2018
Project End Date
Feb 28, 2022
Grant Year
2018
Project Director
Thiede, B. C.
Recipient Organization
PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY
408 Old Main
UNIVERSITY PARK,PA 16802-1505
Performing Department
Agricultural Economics, Sociol
Non Technical Summary
This project analyzes trends in, and determinants of, income inequality within rural U.S. communities from 1970 through 2015. Income inequality refers to the degree of spread in income across households within a population. Levels of income inequality across the United States overall increased dramatically during this time period, and these growing disparities are associated with a range of social, economic, and health challenges. This study will evaluate how local income inequality has been affected by major demographic and economic transformations in rural America since 1970, including shifts in the types of employment opportunities available to rural residents, declining labor force participation rates, population aging and loss, and increasing racial and ethnic diversity. Drawing on multiple datasets from the U.S. Census Bureau and other public sources, we will first produce estimates of income inequality within counties and commuting zones--which are groups of economically-integrated counties--for each decade from 1970 to 2010 and for 2015. Then, we will estimate the magnitude of changes in local income inequality over time, and compare trends across different types of counties and commuting zones, such as rural versus urban or industrial versus agricultural. Third, we will use statistical methods to estimate whether and how demographic and economic changes have affected local income inequality across the rural United States, and compare these patterns to what has occurred in urban areas. In addition to our statistical analysis, we will conduct case studies in four high-inequality rural localities. We will collect archival data, conduct interviews, and analyze these data to develop in-depth knowledge of historical and contemporary inequality dynamics in these specific rural places. This project will provide new documentation of the trends in, and determinants of, income inequality in the rural United States over recent decades. There is currently only limited evidence on this topic. Therefore, our findings will provide policymakers and other stakeholders with the information they need to evaluate whether income inequality is a priority issue, and if so, to inform the development of appropriate mitigating strategies.
Animal Health Component
0%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
100%
Applied
(N/A)
Developmental
(N/A)
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
80360503080100%
Knowledge Area
803 - Sociological and Technological Change Affecting Individuals, Families, and Communities;

Subject Of Investigation
6050 - Communities, areas, and regions;

Field Of Science
3080 - Sociology;
Goals / Objectives
The overall goal of this project is to examine the effects of demographic change and economic restructuring on income inequality within rural localities in the United States from 1970 to the present. We hypothesize that these economic and demographic transformations have shaped the opportunities available to residents, and the characteristics of residents themselves, in ways that have changed the distribution of income within many rural communities. By identifying the extent to which changes in income inequality are driven by changes in the economic and demographic structure of rural economies, we aim to provide policymakers and other stakeholders with the evidence needed to determine the extent and causes of rural inequality, and inform ameliorative strategies where they are needed. Toward this main goal, we will address a number of specific objectives over the project period:Objective #1: Produce estimates of income inequality within rural counties and commuting zones from 1970 to 2015. We will compile income data for 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2011-2015, and produce estimates of income inequality for each year at both the county and commuting zone levels. This dual-scale approach is novel and allows us to address methodological and substantive questions regarding the levels and determinants of income inequality.Objective #2: Estimate the magnitude of changes in local income inequality from 1970 to 2015, and compare changes across spatial scales and types of counties and commuting zones. We will estimate overall and decadal changes in local income inequality using time-consistent areal boundaries. We will compare trends at the county and commuting zone levels, and at each level compare trends between rural and urban areas using multiple indicators of rurality.Objective #3: Develop statistical models to estimate the effects of key dimensions of demographic and economic restructuring on income inequality within rural localities. We will develop databases of social, demographic, and economic conditions at the county and commuting zone levels from 1970 to 2015. We will develop multivariate fixed-effects regression models to estimate the causal effects of these dimensions of demographic and economic restructuring on income inequality at multiple spatial scales. We will test for heterogeneity in these effects over time and across county and commuting zone types.Objective #4: Quantify the contribution of observed changes in demographic and economic conditions in the rural United States to the changes in local income inequality that occurred between 1970 and 2015. Using the results of our statistical models, we will decompose observed changes in local income inequality into components attributable to the changes in demographic and economic conditions of interest that occurred over this time period. We will analyze the components of change for the entire 1970-2015 period, by decade, and according to county and commuting zone type.Objective #5: Develop a grounded understanding of income inequality dynamics in four high-inequality rural localities. We will use our estimates of income inequality to select four high-inequality rural localities for the implementation of case studies. A primary purpose of this part of the study is to develop grounded knowledge of historical and contemporary income inequality dynamics in particular rural places with high inequality. We will analyze historical data and conduct interviews and focus groups to understand knowledge and perceptions of these dynamics from the perspective of multiple stakeholders.
Project Methods
We will conduct our study of income inequality in the rural United States through the following efforts. First, we will produce estimates of income inequality within rural counties and commuting zones from 1970 to 2015. We will produce our estimates using data from the Decennial Census and American Community Survey. For both scales we will produce a series of estimates on a decadal basis from 1970 to 2010--corresponding with the Decennial Census--and for 2015--to include the most recent data available. These spatial units will be harmonized so that their boundaries are consistent over time. As our primary measure of inequality, we will estimate the Gini coefficient for each spatial unit and year in our data. The Gini coefficient is a commonly-used measure of inequality. It ranges from 0 (perfect equality) to 1 (perfect inequality), and corresponds to the area between the Lorenz Curve--which plots the cumulative distribution of income against the corresponding cumulative share of the population--against the line of equity produced when income is distributed evenly across the population of interest. Second, we will analyze the magnitude of changes in local income inequality from 1970 to 2015, and compare changes across spatial scales and types of counties and commuting zones. We will estimate the magnitude of changes in local income inequality during all inter-decade periods from 1970 to 2010, and from 2010 to 2015. We will then calculate and compare the average magnitude of change across different types of local areas from 1970 to 2015, with a focus on differences between rural and urban areas and among different types of rural areas. We will also conduct exploratory spatial analyses--producing descriptive maps and calculating local indicators of spatial association (LISA) statistics--to identify statistically significant spatial clusters of high (low) income inequality and clusters of above- and below-average changes in inequality over time.Third, we will develop multivariate regression models to estimate the effects of key dimensions of demographic and economic restructuring on income inequality within rural localities. We will expand our database to include a range of independent and control variables measured over the 1970-2015 period, and corresponding to the time-stable units for which income inequality is measured. We will draw on data from the U.S. Census Bureau and other public sources. We will include two main groups of independent variables. First, we track changes in the following economic characteristics over time to measure local economic restructuring: (a) industry of employment among employed persons aged 16 and over; (b) the labor force participation rate among adults aged 25-54 years by sex; (c) the number of employers; and (d) size of employers. Second, we examine changes in the following population characteristics over time to measure local demographic change: (a) population size; (b) median age; (c) shares of the population identified as (i) non-Hispanic White, (ii) non-Hispanic Black, (iii) American Indian and Alaskan Native, (iv) Asian and Pacific Islander, and (v) Hispanic; and (d) foreign-born share of the population. We will also include a set of time-varying control variables, which account for other changes in local populations that may be correlated with both our outcome and independent variables of interest. Additionally, our statistical models will include decade fixed effects, which control for all decade-on-decade changes in income inequality that are common to all counties or commuting zones. We will also include county and commuting zone fixed effects as appropriate for the level of analysis. These spatial unit fixed effects control for all time-invariant factors at the county and commuting zone levels, respectively. This statistical approach reduces the likelihood that our estimates will be biased by omitted variables, allowing us to draw stronger causal conclusions than prior work on this topic.Fourth, we will quantify the contribution of observed changes in demographic and economic conditions in the rural United States to the changes in local income inequality that occurred between 1970 and 2015. Specifically, we will decompose observed changes in inequality from 1970 to 2015, and on a decadal basis, into components attributable to specific economic and demographic changes of interest. This analysis will build on the regression models described above, which estimate the effect of a one-unit change in our independent variables of interest on income inequality. In this step, for each decade-on-decade change, and for the entire 1970 to 2015 period, we will conduct regression-based decompositions using the Blinder-Oaxaca framework, which quantifies the change in income inequality that can be attributed to the observed changes in each demographic and economic change of interest.Fifth, to complement the quantitative analyses described above and develop an understanding of realities on the ground, we will conduct case studies in four high-inequality localities across diverse contexts in the rural United States. We will purposively select four high-inequality rural localities, as defined by the top five percent of all rural counties with respect to income inequality in 2015. Each case will be conducted in a different Census region. We will draw on a range of information sources to describe community institutional structures and identify public, private, and third sector leaders. Archival data from local governments, historical societies, and other sources will be collected to understand historical economic dynamics in each community. Key informant interviews will seek to provide a grounded understanding of leaders' perceptions of inequality and their attitudes and behaviors regarding this issue. We will also conduct interviews and focus groups with community members, who will be identified using snowball sampling techniques. Interviews will take place throughout the entire fieldwork period, permitting an iterative design vis-à-vis our nationally-representative statistical analyses and fieldwork in other case study sites. Interview and focus group data will be transcribed into digital form, and then systematically coded and analyzed using qualitative data analysis software.In addition to these research efforts, we will evaluate the success of our research project by tracking our progress using a series of milestones and indicators. We will track our progress with respect to data collection, management, and analysis, and overall project management, using the following milestones:Project website created, updated, and maintained.Graduate research assistant hired.Harmonized county- and commuting zone-level datasets produced.Descriptive analysis of trends in income inequality completed.Regression analysis of the determinants of income inequality completed.Decomposition analysis quantifying the contribution of observed economic and demographic changes to income inequality dynamics completed.Fieldwork sites identified.Case study data (archival and qualitative) collected in field sites.Case study data analyzed.Stakeholders engaged.We will assess our objectives regarding publication, presentation/engagement, and graduate training vis-à-vis the following indicators:Number of scientific articles published.Impact factor of the scientific journals in which project-related articles are published.Number of policy briefs written and published.Number of citations of published papers and policy briefs.Number of downloads of published papers and policy briefs.Number of project website "hits".Number of conference papers presented.Number of policymaker/stakeholder briefings conducted.Number of invited presentations of our research.Number of media interviews on our work.Number of citations of our work in the popular media.Number of graduate students trained.

Progress 03/01/18 to 02/28/22

Outputs
Target Audience:Results of project-related research were presented to audiences of academics, researchers, and practitioners from the public and private sectors. Through the conduct of case studies, the project also engaged with residents of rural communities characterized by high levels of income inequality. Changes/Problems:Pandemic-related disruptions to travel and human subjects research disrupted the planned case studies, but we were able to successfully re-design those case studies (e.g., using videoconferencing) to meet the project objectives. More broadly, pandemic-related issues (e.g., childcare closures) caused disruptions to workflow throughout the project in a manner that caused some delays. However, we were able to overcome these barriers and, once the remaining working papers are published, believe we will have actually exceeded many of the project's objectives. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?The project supported the training of Jacyln Butler in the Rural Sociology and Demography graduate program at The Pennsylvania State University. Jaclyn was funded for three years on the project, and her engagement involved training in database management, computer programming (i.e., writing Stata code), data analytics, and in the substantive areas of rural demography and social stratification. Butler has been an author on all project papers, including leading a paper in Population Research and Policy Review. The project also supported her dissertation, which will be defended on June 9, 2022. In part as a result of her training, she was recently hired as the State Demographer for Michigan. Two other doctoral students at The Pennsylvania State University (Wildermuth, Jayasekera) have had training/development opportunities associated with the project. These opportunities include helping to design and conduct case studies, training in and opportunities for data management and anlaysis, and co-authoring of multiple articles. Both students are expected to defend their PhD dissertations this year (2022). Finally, the project provided a professional development opportunity for the Principal Investigator (Thiede) to train and mentor graduate students and to work with more senior faculty (Brown, Jensen). How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Results of the project have been disseminated through multiple journal articles and working papers, popular writing, and conference presentations and papers, as listed in the "products" section of this report. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? We have accomplished the following outcomes under the project goals: 1. Produced estimates of income inequality within rural counties and commuting zones from 1970 to 2019, and analyzed patterns in the magnitude and direction of changes in inequality over this time period. The results of the county-level analysis were published in 2020 (Thiede et al. 2020), and the results of the commuting zone-level anlaysis are currently reported in a working paper, which will be submitted for review within the next few months. 2. Developed databases of social, demographic, and economic conditions at the county and commuting zone levels from 1970 to 2019, and fitted statistical models to estimate the effects of these characteristics on inequality. The results of one such anlaysis were published in 2020 (Butler et al. 2020), and the results of complementary analyses are being reported in a working paper (see above) and a doctoral dissertation (Butler 2022). Collectively, these papers have examined the effects of population loss, aging, migration, and economic restructuring on income inequality at the county and commuting zone levels. 3. Quantified the contribution of observed changes in demographic and economic conditions in the United States to the changes in local income inequality that occurred between 1970 and 2019 using decomposition techniques (Thiede et al. 2022 working paper). 4. Developed a grounded understanding of income inequality dynamics in four high-inequality rural localities via mixed-methods case studies. The results of these case studies are being reported in a doctoral dissertation (Butler 2022), which we expect to be further developed into a publication after the defense. 5. Conducted an anlaysis of the relationship between poverty and income inequality at the county level, to better understand where in the income distribution changes in inequality are occuring.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Thiede, B. C., Butler, J. L., Brown, D. L., & Jensen, L. (2020). Income Inequality across the Rural?Urban Continuum in the United States, 19702016. Rural Sociology, 85(4), 899-937.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Butler, J., Wildermuth, G. A., Thiede, B. C., & Brown, D. L. (2020). Population Change and Income Inequality in Rural America. Population Research and Policy Review, 39(5), 889-911.
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Thiede, Brian C., David L. Brown, Jaclyn L.W. Butler, and Leif Jensen. 2020. Income Inequality is Getting Worse in Urban Areas. The Conversation. 14 April 2020. Available at: https://theconversation.com/income-inequality-is-getting-worse-in-us-urban-areas-132417.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Thiede, Brian C., Jaclyn L.W. Butler, David L. Brown, and Leif Jensen. 2019. Changing Income Inequality in Nonmetropolitan U.S. Counties, 1970-2016. Paper. Annual meeting of the Rural Sociological Society, Richmond, VA. 8 August 2019.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Butler, Jaclyn L.W., Brian C. Thiede, David L. Brown, and Leif Jensen. 2019. Income Inequality Across the Rural-Urban Continuum. Poster. Annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Austin, TX. 12 April 2019.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Thiede, Brian C., *David L. Brown, Leif Jensen, and Jaclyn L.W. Butler. 2018. Uneven Development and Income Inequality in Rural America, 1970-2015. Presentation. Annual meeting of the American Sociological Associations Sociology of Development Section, Urbana-Champagne, IL. 20 October 2018.
  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Under Review Year Published: 2022 Citation: Butler, Jaclyn. 2022. Essays on the Economic, Demographic, and Social Dynamics of Income inequality in the United States. PhD Dissertation. The Pennsylvania State University.
  • Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2022 Citation: Thiede, B.C., Brown, D.L., Jayasekera, D., Butler, J.L.W., & Jensen, L. 2022. Decomposing Subnational Income Inequality in the United States, 1980-2019. Working Paper.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2022 Citation: Brown, D.L., Jensen, L., Thiede, B.C., Butler, J.L.W., & Jayasekera, D. 2022. The Poverty-Inequality Mismatch in the United States. Paper. Annual meeting of the Trans-Atlantic Rural Research Network. Newcastle-upon-Tyne, UK. 24 May 2022.


Progress 03/01/20 to 02/28/21

Outputs
Target Audience:Results of project-related research were presented to audiences of academics and/or researchers from the public and private sectors. Changes/Problems:Pandemic-related disruptions to travel and human subjects research disrupted the planned case studies. However, we have modified our plans for these case studies as outlined in the change of scope that was approved by the program officer. We are confident that we will complete this and all other project objectives during this final year of the project. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?The project continues to provide a training opportunity to a third-year doctoral student (Butler) in the Rural Sociology and Demography graduate program at The Pennsylvania State University. This graduate student has been funded on a Research Assistantship through the project (beginning August 2018). Her work on the project has involved training in database management, computer programming (i.e., writing Stata code), data analytics, and in the substantive areas of rural demography and social stratification. Butler has been an author on all project papers, including leading a recent paper in Population Research and Policy Review. During the reporting period, Butler successfully defended her doctoral comprehensive exam and dissertation proposal. Her dissertation will address the relationship between inequality and key economic and demographic trends in the United States. These trends include the restructuring of economic and labor policy environments in the manufacturing sector, age-selective migration and population aging, and trajectories of population growth and decline in large and small metropolitan areas. Another doctoral student at The Pennsylvania State University (Wildermuth) has had training/development opportunities associated with the project. These opportunities were described in the prior progress report. However, we also note that she was a co-author on one of the project papers that was published during this reporting period. The project has also continued to provide a professional development opportunity for the Principal Investigator (Thiede), as detailed in the prior progress report. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Results of project-related research were presented to audiences of academics and/or researchers from the public and private sectors during the following presentations at professional meetings and seminars: Butler, J. L.W and Jensen, L. "Migration, population aging, and county-level income inequality in the United States." DemSemX, virtual conference (sponsored by the University of Wisconsin and Penn State population centers). 21 August 2020. Butler, J. L.W. "Dissertation proposal: The dynamics of uneven development, population redistribution, and economic inequality in the United States." Communities & Place Working Group, Population Research Institute, Penn State, virtual presentation. 20 November 2020. Butler, J. L.W., Thiede, B. C., Jensen, L., Brown, D.L. "Rural-urban differences in income inequality, 1970 to 2016." The Southern Regional Science Association, virtual conference. 8 April 2021. We also have also reached our target audiences through the following publications: Thiede, B. C., Butler, J. L., Brown, D. L., & Jensen, L. (2020). Income Inequality across the Rural?Urban Continuum in the United States, 1970-2016. Rural Sociology, 85(4), 899-937. Butler, J., Wildermuth, G. A., Thiede, B. C., & Brown, D. L. (2020). Population Change and Income Inequality in Rural America. Population Research and Policy Review, 39(5), 889-911. Notably, the open-access "pre-print" versions of these publications have been downloaded more than 1100 times to date. Finally, we note that one investigator (David Brown) conducted a number of complementary studies that were pertinent to (though not funded by) the project. These produced two publications during the reporting period: Vera-Toscano, E., Shucksmith, M., & Brown, D.L. (2020). Poverty Dynamics in Rural Britain 1991-2008: Did Labour's Social Policy Reforms Make a Difference? Journal of Rural Studies. 75: 216-228. McAreavey, R., & Brown, D.L. (2020). Comparative Analysis of Rural Poverty and Inequality in the UK and the US. Palgrave Communications. Open access at: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-019-0332-8. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?In the next (and final) reporting period we will: Complete the ongoing decomposition analysis, which aims to quantify the contribution of observed changes in demographic and economic conditions in the rural United States to the changes in local income inequality that occurred between 1970 and 2016. Complete a fourth paper that examines the relationship between local income inequality and poverty, identifying places characterized by the compounding disadvantages of high poverty and high inequality. Complete the virtual case studies. Continue to disseminate our findings via publications and presentations.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? We have accomplished the following outcomes under the project goals: Published a descriptive statistical analysis of within-county income inequality across the rural-urban continuum between 1970 and 2016. This analysis examines (a) changes in the average level of inequality in rural and urban counties; (b) patterns of persistence and change in inequality over time; and (c) patterns in populations' exposure to high- and low-inequality contexts. The paper was published in Rural Sociology (see next section for full citation). Published a multivariate analysis of the effects of population growth and decline on income inequality in rural countries. This paper was published in Population Research and Policy Review (see next section for full citation). This paper shows that (a) population loss tends to increase income inequality while population growth mildly decreases it; (b) the pattern prevails amidst socio-demographic and economic county-level controls; and (c) the link between population loss and increasing inequality is especially apparent in the South. Proceeded with a decomposition analysis to quantify the contribution of observed changes in demographic and economic conditions in the rural United States to the changes in local income inequality that occurred between 1970 and 2016. The working paper is approximately 60% drafted, and we expect to complete it (and post it online) no later than June 2021. Revised case study methodology due to pandemic-related disruptions, and commenced with virtual case studies in April 2021. Began building a research paper on the relationship between poverty and inequality at the county level. The paper describes counties that fall into categories of a cross-classification of high versus low poverty and inequality. Multinomial logistic regression modeling is used to explore the correlates of a county being high-high on poverty and inequality, low-low on both, or in the off-diagonals.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Thiede, B. C., Butler, J. L., Brown, D. L., & Jensen, L. (2020). Income Inequality across the Rural?Urban Continuum in the United States, 19702016. Rural Sociology, 85(4), 899-937.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Butler, J., Wildermuth, G. A., Thiede, B. C., & Brown, D. L. (2020). Population Change and Income Inequality in Rural America. Population Research and Policy Review, 39(5), 889-911.


Progress 03/01/19 to 02/29/20

Outputs
Target Audience:Our efforts have reached audiences of academics and/or researchers from the public and private sectors who (a) attended the professional meetings and/or seminars at which we presented our work and/or (b) read the project working papers that were made publically available during the reporting period. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?The project has provided a training opportunity to a second-year doctoral student (Butler) in the Rural Sociology and Demography graduate program at The Pennsylvania State University. This graduate student has been funded on a Research Assistantship through the project (beginning August 2018). Her work on the project has involved training in database management, computer programming (i.e., writing Stata code), data analytics, and in the substantive areas of rural demography and social stratification. Butler has also been active in planning and completing an initial visit to one of the case study field sites and will continue to be active in this component of the project. The Assistantship on this project is also matched with a tuition waiver by The Pennsylvania State University, thereby providing Butler with opportunities for doctoral-level coursework in Rural Sociology and Demography. Another doctoral student at The Pennsylvania State University (Wildermuth) has been integrated into two components of the project: (a) the planning of case study field work; and (b) an analysis/journal manuscript that examines the effects of population growth and decline on income inequality in rural and urban U.S. counties. These activities have helped her to develop field work skills that will be utilized in her dissertation research and to gain experience with quantitative data analysis and academic publishing. The project has also continued to provide a professional development opportunity for the Principal Investigator (Thiede)--who is a junior faculty member--to interact and work collaboratively with two senior scholars in Rural Sociology and Demography (Jensen and Brown). Relatedly, Thiede has also been able to present project-related work at professional organizations and in an invited lecture at Louisiana State University. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Results of project-related research were presented to audiences of academics and/or researchers from the public and private sectors during the following presentations at professional meetings and seminars: Thiede, Brian C., David L. Brown, Leif Jensen, and Jaclyn Butler. 2019. "Income Inequality Across the Rural-Urban Continuum, 1970-2015." Presentation. Annual meeting of the Trans-Atlantic Rural Research Network, Aberdeen, Scotland, UK. 3-5 April 2019. Butler, Jaclyn L.W., Brian C. Thiede, David L. Brown, and Leif Jensen. 2019. "Income Inequality Across the Rural-Urban Continuum." Poster. Annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Austin, TX. 12 April 2019. Thiede, Brian C., Jaclyn L.W. Butler, David L. Brown, and Leif Jensen. 2019. "Changing Income Inequality in Nonmetropolitan U.S. Counties, 1970-2016." Paper. Annual meeting of the Rural Sociological Society, Richmond, VA. 8 August 2019. Esperanza Vera-Toscano, Mark Shucksmith and David L Brown. 2019. "The Effects of New Labour Social Policy Reforms on Poverty Dynamics in Rural Britain 1991-2008." Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Rural Sociological Society. Richmond, VA. 8 August. Thiede, Brian C. 2019. "The Contours and Correlates of Income Inequality in Rural America." Paper. Department of Sociology, Louisiana State University. 27 September 2019. Butler, Jaclyn. 2019. "Population Change and Income Inequality in Rural America, 1970 to 2016." Presentation. Rural Studies Student Conference, University Park, PA. 8 November 2019. We also have also reached our target audiences by making working papers from this project publicly available online. These papers were downloaded more than 175 times thus far. Examples include: Thiede, B. C., Butler, J. L., Brown, D. L.W., & Jensen, L. (2019). Income Inequality Across the Rural-Urban Continuum in the United States, 1970-2016. https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/mtu2w/ Butler, J.L.W., Wildermuth, G.A., Thiede, B.C., & Brown, D. (2020). The Dynamics of Population Change and Income Inequality in Rural America. https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/g3yhe/ What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?In the next reporting period we will: Complete a commuting zone (CZ)-level database of all relevant socio-demographic and economic population characteristics. We had initially anticipated doing so by aggregating our completed county-level database to the CZ level. However, we have since learned that it is possible to construct a CZ-level dataset using public-use microdata, which provide a range of benefits for analysis relative to using the county-level summary files. We anticipate competing this CZ-level dataset by March 2020. Complete the ongoing decomposition analysis, which aims to quantify the contribution of observed changes in demographic and economic conditions in the rural United States to the changes in local income inequality that occurred between 1970 and 2016. Complete the proposed case studies. Continue to disseminate our findings via publications, presentations, and engagements with the communities in our case study sites.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? We have accomplished the following outcomes under the project goals: Completed a dataset that includes estimates of within-county income inequality and a suite of social, economic, and demographic indicators for all counties in the United States on a decadal basis, from 1970 to 2016. Completed a descriptive statistical analysis of within-county income inequality across the rural-urban continuum between 1970 and 2016. This analysis examines (a) changes in the average level of inequality in rural and urban counties; (b) patterns of persistence and change in inequality over time; and (c) patterns in populations' exposure to high- and low-inequality contexts. Completed an article manuscript reporting the results of item #2. This paper was submitted to the journal Rural Sociology, and was recently given a "revise and resubmit" decision. Completed a multivariate analysis of the effects of population growth and decline on income inequality in rural and urban counties. Completed an article manuscript reporting the results of item #4. This paper is under review at the journal Population Research and Policy Review. Conducted a preliminary decomposition analysis to quantify the contribution of observed changes in demographic and economic conditions in the rural United States to the changes in local income inequality that occurred between 1970 and 2016. Selected case study sites, conducted background research on selected sites, and initiated the case studies, completing one initial visit and planning others.

Publications


    Progress 03/01/18 to 02/28/19

    Outputs
    Target Audience:Preliminary results were presented at the annual meeting of the American Sociological Association's Sociology of Development Section on October 20, 2018. A concept paper describing the project had been presented at the annual meeting of the Transatlantic Rural Research Network in Ithaca, NY on March 3, 2018. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?The project has provided a training opportunity to a first-year doctoral student (Butler) in the Rural Sociology and Demography graduate program at The Pennsylvania State University. This graduate student has been funded on a Research Assistantship through the project (beginning August 2018). Her work on the project has involved training in database management, computer programming (i.e., writing Stata code), and in the substantive areas of rural demography and social stratification. The Assistantship on this project is also matched with a tuition waiver by The Pennsylvania State University, thereby providing opportunities for doctoral-level coursework in Rural Sociology and Demography. The project has also provided a professional development opportunity for the Principal Investigator (Thiede)--who is a junior faculty member--to interact and work collaboratively with two senior scholars in Rural Sociology and Demography (Jensen and Brown). How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Preliminary results were presented at the annual meeting of the American Sociological Association's Sociology of Development Section on October 20, 2018. A concept paper describing the project had been presented at the annual meeting of the Transatlantic Rural Research Network in Ithaca, NY on March 3, 2018. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?In the next reporting period we will: Complete the database of county socio-demographic and economic characteristics to be included as control variables in our multivariate statistical models, for all decades from 1970 to 2016. Construct a commuting zone (CZ)-level database of all relevant socio-demographic and economic population characteristics by aggregating our completed county-level database to the CZ level. Develop multivariate statistical models of the effects of economic and demographic change on local income inequality (i.e., at the county and CZ levels). Extend these models by conducting decomposition analyses to identify the contribution of observed economic and demographic changes to levels of local income inequality across the rural United States. Identify the specific communities in which to conduct case studies, and begin the data collection and analysis processes.

    Impacts
    What was accomplished under these goals? We have accomplished the following of our proposed goals: Produced estimates of income inequality within nonmetropolitan (and metropolitan) counties from 1970 to 2016, adjusted for changes in county boundaries over time. Estimated and analyzed the magnitude of changes in county income inequality from 1970 to 2015. Our analyses included descriptive comparisons of local inequality trends between nonmetropolitan and metropolitan counties and among different types of nonmetropolitan counties as defined by the RUCC codes; as well as exploratory spatial analyses for years 1970 and 2015. Developed a database of county socio-demographic and economic characteristics to be included as control variables in our multivariate statistical models. The database is approximately 50% complete--with approximately two years of data left to integrate--as of January 2019. Developed a timeline and process for selecting and traveling to case study sites in the next reporting period.

    Publications