Source: UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, DAVIS submitted to NRP
CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF SEASONAL MIGRATION AMONG LANDLESS AGRICULTURAL LABORERS
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
COMPLETE
Funding Source
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
1014515
Grant No.
(N/A)
Cumulative Award Amt.
(N/A)
Proposal No.
(N/A)
Multistate No.
(N/A)
Project Start Date
Oct 2, 2017
Project End Date
Sep 30, 2022
Grant Year
(N/A)
Program Code
[(N/A)]- (N/A)
Recipient Organization
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, DAVIS
410 MRAK HALL
DAVIS,CA 95616-8671
Performing Department
Agricultural and Resource Economics
Non Technical Summary
This project supports the mission of the Agricultural Experiment Station by addressing the Hatch Act area(s) of: rural and community development. This project studies the causes and consequences of seasonal migration among agricultural laborers. The agricultural sector in California and around the nation relies heavily on migrant labor. Because agriculture is strongly tied to the seasons, many migrants travel over the course of a year to live and work where labor is in the highest demand. This project first seeks to understand how workers choose when and where to travel. As migrants travel for work, they decrease the size of the labor force in the regions they leave and increase the size of the labor force in the regions they arrive to. The second goal of this project is to understand how these changes in the labor force affect the development of the surrounding community. Finally, this project seeks to quantify the total effect of migration over the seasonal cycle on agricultural productivity.
Animal Health Component
60%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
30%
Applied
60%
Developmental
10%
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
8036010301025%
6096050301025%
6066120301020%
6086050301020%
6116110301010%
Goals / Objectives
1. Understand how workers decide to migrate and choose a destination, including how they get information about job opportunities and the importance of having connections with potential employers.2. Quantify the barriers to migration, including the risk of not finding a job and the psychological disutility of being separated from family and friends.3. Estimate the impact of seasonal migration on local agricultural labor supply in home and destination markets, and the spillover effects of this on non-migrants.4. Combine the above estimates into a spatial equilibrium model of migration to characterize aggregate economic efficiency and simulate the likely outcomes of counterfactual policies.
Project Methods
This project will combine spatial equilibrium modeling with existing data on migration as well as newly generated experimental evidence on landless agricultural laborers. The experiment will provide insight into the migrants' decision to migrate as well as the effect of migration on source and destination markets. Experimental results will be used to inform the spatial equilibrium model and interpret large-scale data on the aggregate effects of seasonal agricultural migration.

Progress 10/01/19 to 09/30/20

Outputs
Target Audience:I have a policy brief in distribution and a scholarly article in development that both target donors, implementing organizations, and regulators who deal with policy directed at seasonal migrants. Both works highlight a fundamental challenge in reaching the intended population with a policy, develop tools to quantify the potential magnitude of the problem, and suggest a methodology to statistically uncover when targeting has been unsuccessful. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Nothing Reported How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Results have been written up as a policy brief and are currently being written into a more comprehensive article for journal submission. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Over the next reporting period, I will (1) formally write up my model and statistical test of policy targeting for submission to a peer-reviewed journal, and (2) conduct a supplementary study comparing how the determinants of labor supply elasticity differ between immigrants and native-born American workers in the agricultural sector using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Government of Mexico.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? I worked to quantify extent to which a migration policy reached its intended beneficiaries when the target population is not readily identifiable. I develop statistical tools to test the extent to which a policy targeting is successful, and how much leakage there is from unintended beneficiaries receiving program benefits.

Publications


    Progress 10/01/18 to 09/30/19

    Outputs
    Target Audience:I wrote a policy brief intended for NGOs and other charitable organizations that aim to implement policies targeted at the poor at large scale highlighting a potential pitfall common to many types of aid. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Nothing Reported How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?The results on targeting are awaiting publication through the International Growth Center. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?I plan to evaluate newly generated data from Bangladesh and use the findings to design a study with farm connections in central California.

    Impacts
    What was accomplished under these goals? I evaluated a migration policy in Bangladesh for a comparative study, which revealed potential issues in program implementation that must be addressed moving forward, and conducted scoping visits with agricultural producers that hire mobile labor in central California.

    Publications

    • Type: Other Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2019 Citation: Bryan, Gharad, A. Mushfiq Mobarak, Karim Naguib, Maira Reimao, Ashish Shenoy. 2019. "Ups and Downs in the Path to Scale: Lessons Learned from a Scale-up of a Seasonal Migration RCT in Bangladesh," IGC PolicyBrief 89441


    Progress 10/02/17 to 09/30/18

    Outputs
    Target Audience: Nothing Reported Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Nothing Reported How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? Nothing Reported What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?In the next period, we will analyze data from the experiment in Bangladesh and develop a model of spatial misallocation in the labor market. Bangladeshi data will be used to validate and calibrate the model, separating out selection and treatment effects in observed misallocation.

    Impacts
    What was accomplished under these goals? This is a comparative project contarsting seasonal migration in California to that observed in South Asia. During the reporting period, we implemented and collected data on an experiment to promote seasonal migration in Bangladesh. Data from the experiment will be used to generate a model of spatial labor allocation and aggregate productivity. Once the model has been validated and calibrated using experimental data in Bangladesh, it will be applied to the California labor market.

    Publications