Source: PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY submitted to
COSTS AND BENEFITS OF NATURAL RESOURCES ON PUBLIC AND PRIVATE LANDS: MANAGEMENT, ECONOMIC VALUATION, AND INTEGRATED DECISION-MAKING
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
REVISED
Funding Source
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
1014400
Grant No.
(N/A)
Project No.
PEN04631
Proposal No.
(N/A)
Multistate No.
W-4133
Program Code
(N/A)
Project Start Date
Oct 1, 2017
Project End Date
Sep 30, 2022
Grant Year
(N/A)
Project Director
Zipp, KA, Y.
Recipient Organization
PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY
208 MUELLER LABORATORY
UNIVERSITY PARK,PA 16802
Performing Department
Agri Economics, Sociology & Education
Non Technical Summary
Penn State's contribution to regional project W4133 will include several complementary research efforts. First, we willfocuson developing better methods for valuing ecosystem services, and how these will change as a consequence of climate change, land use change, and invasive species. Second, we will conduct research that focuses on water quality and explores optimal management of nutrient pollutants and the potential for using nutrient credit trading to achieve water quality goals. Third, we conduct research and develop methods for incorporating regional estimates of ecosystem change into integrated assessment models. And finally, we will develop integrated land/population-energy-water models and use these models to assess the impact that changing weather and climate patternsare likely to have on human and natural systems.
Animal Health Component
0%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
0%
Applied
80%
Developmental
20%
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
6050210301020%
6050120301020%
6050399301020%
6050430301020%
6090210301020%
Goals / Objectives
Resource Management Economic Valuation Integrated Policy and Decision-Making
Project Methods
Methods for Goal 1 (Resource Management): Activities will include both simulation-based and empirical modeling of resource systems with the goal to better integrate and capture the spatial and temporal interactions between the key players in the economic and biophysical systems. In both cases, a specific focus will be given to developing better (more spatially and temporally explicit) data sets, which more accurately represent the key inputs and outputs of the economic and biophysical systems.Methods for Goal 2 (Economic Valuation Methods): This research continues a series of research efforts to improve the methodology used to value ecosystem services. Specifically, this research will explore ways to improve the reliability of stated preference (survey based) and revealed preference (hedonic and travel-cost) valuation methods. The research will address both improvements in survey design and data collection and in the statistical analysis. Methods will be developed to translate existing econometric results into IAMs; development work will also be conducted to generate empirical results on climate impacts and adaptation that can be more easily incorporated into IAMs.Methods for Goal 3 (Integrated Ecosystem Services Valuation and Management): Activities will include research on the design of water quality markets, and the optimal management of nutrient pollution with a focus on the implications of lags, hysteresis, and uncertainty in the movement of nutrients and ecosystem responses to nutrient reductions. Activities will also include research on the integration/linking of various types of economic and biophysical models, including economic general equilibrium and structural empirical models, hydrologic models, and models of energy and agricultural systems with the goal of producing an integrated modeling system capable of conducting policy analysis.

Progress 10/01/19 to 09/30/20

Outputs
Target Audience:The target audience includes other scholars of agricultural, environmental, and resource economics including faculty and students, policy-makers, other stakeholders, e.g., farmers, water utilities, water managers, park visitors and managers. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?The project has funded five graduate students and a post-doctoral researcher in the past year. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?The outputs of this project over the past year were presented at several outlets, including: workshops and conferences such as the Mid-Atlantic Biosolids Association Summer Symposium,Maria Sibylla Merian Institute for Advanced Studies in Africa, the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium Annual Meeting in Tsukuba, Japan, departmental seminars such as Columbia University, Harvard Kennedy School, government agencies such as the managers of the Truckee Meadow Water Authority, non-governmental agencies such as Resources for the Future and the Inter-American Development Bank. However, due to covid-19, many annual conferences were canceled. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? We will be continuing our work broadly on the integrated modeling of multisector dynamics with an emphasis on impacts of water variability and the role of water institutions.Our approach is to incorporate data and information on water institutions into a hydrologic model of the US that is coupled to crop, land use, and power system models to provide constraints on the supply of water. This integrated modeling system is coordinated by a regional economic model of the US that passes prices and demand to the various component models to capture the competing demands for water and the regional economic implications. Continue to partner with water utilities and disseminate results to water managers and policy makers.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Goal 1: Michael Jacobson Forest plantations in Africa are important land uses. They provide income, foreign exchange, and rural livelihood opportunities. Trees can also provide ecosystem services. Jacobson and Ciolkosz (2020) exploresthe value-added products from wood pellets as innovative technology to meet energy needs renewably. Chahal et al. (2020)explores the process of commercially debarking wood and using the bark material as a value-added product. Jacobson and Ham (2020)examines the problems with agricultural technology adoption.In this case the role of fertilizer trees as soil replenishment technology in Zambia is examined. Karen Fisher-Vanden and Douglas Wrenn Research done this year has resulted in an improvement in our understanding of climate change impacts in a number of areas through integrated modeling that captures multisector dynamics and integrated impacts across sectors: (1) how water scarcity in the U.S. West affects the integrated energy-water-land system; (2) how water institutions in the U.S. West affect the efficient allocation of scarce water across uses/sectors; (3) how changes in temperature and precipitation can affect the reliability of power systems. Zaveri, Wrenn, and Fisher-Vanden (2020) examinesthe impact of weather shocks and irrigation availability on short-term migration made by Indian households. In our empirical model, we usemicro-level household data from rural India. In developing countries households often use short-term migration as a means of insurance smoothing out income shocks at the household level. This is especially true for small, farming households who are subject to weather shocks that impact household income. In our research, we specifically lookat how different types of irrigation impactsshort-term migration decisions where the differences in irrigation were based on how consistently available those sources of water were - i.e., deep, fossil-water aquifers provide a much more reliable and consistent source of water relative to more shallow acquirers and surface-water sources. Our results show that households with access to fossil-water aquifers are much less likely to send out short-term migrants. We also find that following a rainfall shock these households see no change in their migration rates whereas households without this type of access increase their migration rates. From a policy perspective this is an issue given that most fossil-water aquifers are unregulated and thus their long-term viability is uncertain. Daniel Brent Several projects investigate the role of price and non-price factors in resource management. These projects primarily focus on water resources to estimate drivers of heterogeneity in demand elasticity as well as behavioral, social, and cognitive determinants of consumption. Projects under this goal include: Brent et al. (2020)findthat the content of the normative message is a driver of the results, and that nudges can be better optimized to increase water conservation, particularly among lower-use households. Aggregate savings can increase by roughly 40%. Brent (Working Paper) finds that prices increase the probability of adopting drought-resistant landscape and have important long-term consequences for water demand. Brent and Wichman (Working Paper) find little evidence for the interaction of social comparisons and water prices, suggesting the mechanisms are primarily moral costs. Katherine Zipp Rice et al. (2020) introduces a new framework (the Recreational Ecosystem Services Interpretive Framework) that combines recreational ecosystem services and a benefits approach to leisure to better inform management of protected areas. Miller et al. (2020) investigates public perspection of prescribed fires in New Jersey and Pennsylvania and finds that hunters had lower levels of perceived costs and likelihood of negative outcomes from prescribed fire than non-hunters. Goal 2: Several projects also focus on economic valuation. These projects include methodological advances in nonmarket valuation as well as applying improvements in data and valuation methods to policy-relevant settings. Another objective for this goal is to better understand the distribution of public goods and the consequences for nonmarket valuation. Projects under this goal include: Daniel Brent Arora, Brent, and Jaenicke (2020)show that there are distinct classes of Indian consumers in terms of how much they are willing to pay for lab-grown and plant-based meat. We categorize the four consumer classes as: veggie lovers, themeat lovers, theplant-based meat enthusiasts, and theclean meat enthusiasts. Brent et al. (Working Paper)find differences in preferences when respondents' financial incentives are linked to their survey responses. The results are consistent with hypothetical bias of roughly 60%. Brent, Cook, and Lassiter (Working Paper)show that eligibility and selection effects are important for evaluating the distributional consequences of green infrastructure policies. Wealthier households are eligible, but less wealthy households participate conditional on eligibility. James Shortle Choi, Ready, and Shortle (2020)present an algorithm for estimating the water quality benefits from implementing Best Management Practices (BMPs). A key feature of the algorithm is to capture benefits through a stream network downstream of the implementation and in- and off-stream benefits over the affected geography. It is applied to three watersheds in the Chesapeake Bay basin. Goal 3: Daniel Brent Brent and Beland (2020) show that peak traffic increases the response times of first responders by about 20%. Peak traffic also increases the monetary damages from fires by 10%. James Shortle Shortle et al. (2020)synthesizes research from multiple disciplines to develop a system approach to nutrient pollution management. Royer et al. (2020)shares lessons learned and best practices from initiative to engage scientists, policy makers, and stakeholders in a shared discovery approach to developing solutions to nutrient pollution problems. Amin et al. (2019)examines the optimal selection and placement of BMPs to reduce nutrient loads in three watersheds in the Chesapeake Bay basin. The results demonstrated that significant pollution control cost savings can be achieved by targeting practices to critical source areas within watersheds and by selecting practices for those locations based on their cost-effectiveness. The study makes use of Topo-SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) to model pollution loads. Ribaudo and Shortle (2019)synthesizes 40 years of economic research on nutrient pollution to evaluate public policies to reduce nutrient pollution from agriculture and to propose policy changes to improve effectiveness and efficiency. Key lessons are: a need to switch from practice to performance based strategies, to target resources to critical source area, and to utilize incentive mechanisms that reduce information rents and reliance on public budgets. Katherine Zipp Colby and Zipp (2020) estimate that there are 8.1% more houses and flood damages that are 13% too high in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania due to flood insurance subsidies. Zipp et al. (2019) proposes a novel algorithm to minimize the damages from aquatic invasive species through boater behavior.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Jacobson, M., Ciolkosz, D. 2020. Plantation Forestry and Pellet Production in Kenya. Biomass and Bioenergy. Vol 135. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biombioe.2020.105519
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Chahal, A., Ciolkosz, D., Puri, V., Liu, J. & Jacobson, M. (2020) Factors affecting wood-bark adhesion for debarking of shrub willow. Biosystems Engineering, 196: 202-209. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biosystemseng.2020.05.019
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Jacobson, M., Ham, C. 2019. The (un)broken promise of agroforestry: a case study of improved fallows in Zambia. Environ Dev Sustain (2019) https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-019-00564-5
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2020 Citation: Mid-Atlantic Biosolids Association Summer Symposium. July 2, 2020. Sustainable Agroforestry: The Nexus of Food, Water and Energy in Forestry Management
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2020 Citation: Maria Sibylla Merian Institute for Advanced Studies in Africa (MIASA). Ghana. May 26-27 2020. Sustainable Rural Transformation in Africa. Farmer Behavior and Rural Transformation in a Water-Energy-Food (WEF) Nexus Context
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2020 Citation: Regional Workshop on Building Synergies in WEF Nexus Research. South Africa. March 5-6 2020. Keynote: WEF Nexus Africa Initiative
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2020 Citation: Rimsaite, R., K. Fisher-Vanden, S. Olmstead, D. Grogan, 2020, How well do U.S. western water markets convey economic information?" Forthcoming, Land Economics.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2020 Citation: Fisher-Vanden, K., J. Weyant, 2020, The Evolution of Integrated Assessment: developing the next generation of use-inspired IA tools. Forthcoming, Annual Review of Resource Economics.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2020 Citation: Zaveri, E., D.H. Wrenn, and K.A. Fisher-Vanden, 2020, The Impact of Water Access on Short-Term Migration in Rural India. Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 64(2):505-532. doi: 10.1111/1467-8489.12364
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2020 Citation: Rimsaite, R., K.A. Fisher-Vanden, S. Olmstead, 2020, Learning from Historical Water Transfer in the United States: Are Gains from Trade Higher or Lower Under Water Stress? Submitted, Environmental and Resource Economics
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2019 Citation: The Evolution of Integrated Assessment: Developing the next generation of use-inspired tools, Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium Annual Meeting, Keynote Presentation, Tsukuba, Japan, December 4, 2019
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2019 Citation: Capturing Energy-Water-Land Interactions in an Integrated Modeling Framework, Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium Annual Meeting, Tsukuba, Japan, December 2, 2019
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2019 Citation: Capturing Energy-Water-Land Interactions in an Integrated Modeling Framework, Yale University, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies seminar series, New Haven, CT, November 20, 2019
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2019 Citation: Capturing Energy-Water-Land Interactions in an Integrated Modeling Framework, Columbia University, School of International and Public Affairs seminar series, New York, NY, November 18, 2019
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2019 Citation: Capturing Energy-Water-Land Interactions in an Integrated Modeling Framework, Resources for the Future seminar series, Washington DC, November 14, 2019
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2019 Citation: Capturing Energy-Water-Land Interactions in an Integrated Modeling Framework, Inter-American Development Bank seminar series, Washington, DC, November 13, 2019
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2019 Citation: The Evolution of Integrated Assessment: Developing the next generation of use-inspired tools, Environmental Economics Workshop, Harvard Kennedy School, Cambridge, MA, September 19, 2019.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2020 Citation: Brent, Daniel, and Louis-Philippe Beland. "Traffic congestion, transportation policies, and the performance of first responders." Journal of Environmental Economics and Management (2020): 102339.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2020 Citation: Brent, Daniel A., Corey Lott, Michael Taylor, Joseph Cook, Kimberly Rollins, Shawn Stoddard, D. A. Brent, C. Lott, M. Taylor, and J. Cook. "What causes heterogeneous responses to social comparison messages for water conservation?" Environmental and Resource Economics, forthcoming.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Arora, Rashmit S., Daniel A. Brent, and Edward C. Jaenicke. "Is India Ready for Alt-Meat? Preferences and Willingness to Pay for Meat Alternatives." Sustainability 12, no. 11 (2020): 4377
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2020 Citation: Brent, D. A., Gangadharan, L., Leroux, A., & Raschky, P. A. "Putting One's Money Where One's Mouth Is," Working Paper.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Other Year Published: 2020 Citation: Brent DA, Wichman CJ, "Do behavioral nudges interact with prevailing economic incentives? Pairing experimental and quasi-experimental evidence from water consumption," Working Paper
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Other Year Published: 2020 Citation: Brent DA, Cook, JH, Lassiter A, "Who Signs up for Free Raingardens? Distributional Effect of Green Infrastructure Subsidies," Working Paper
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Choi, D.S., Ready, R.C. and Shortle, J.S., 2020. Valuing water quality benefits from adopting best management practices: A spatial approach. Journal of Environmental Quality, 49(3), pp. 582-592.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Royer, M.B., Brooks, R.P., Shortle, J.S. and Yetter, S., 2020. Shared discovery: A process to coproduce knowledge among scientists, policy makers, and stakeholders for solving nutrient pollution problems. Journal of Environmental Quality. 49(3), pp. 603-612.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Amin, M.M., Veith, T.L., Shortle, J.S., Karsten, H.D. and Kleinman, P.J., 2019. Addressing the spatial disconnect between national-scale total maximum daily loads and localized land management decisions. Journal of Environmental Quality, 49(3), pp. 613-627.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Ribaudo, M. and Shortle, J., 2019. Reflections on 40 Years of Applied Economics Research on Agriculture and Water Quality. Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, 48(3), pp.519-53.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Rice, W.L, P.B. Newman, B.D. Taff, Z.D. Miller, and K.Y. Zipp. (2020) "Beyond benefits: Toward a recreational ecosystem services management framework." Landscape Research 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1080/01426397.2020.1777956
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Miller, Z. D., H. Wu, K. Zipp, C. L. Dems, E. Smithwick, M. Kaye, P. Newman, A. Zhao, and A. Taylor. (2020) "Hunter and Non-Hunter Perceptions of Costs, Benefits, and Likelihood of Outcomes of Prescribed Fire in the Mid-Atlantic Region." Society & Natural Resources https://doi.org/10.1080/08941920.2020.1780359.


Progress 10/01/18 to 09/30/19

Outputs
Target Audience: Academic researchers and policymakers in attendance at local, regional, national, and international academic conferences. Unversity stakeholders. Members of Federal agencicies including PA-DEP, US-EPA, USAD, and DOE. State and local policymakers. Undergraduate and graduates students. General public. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Nothing Reported How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?The outputs of this project over the past year include presentations at workshops and conferences, departmental seminars, and presentations to government agencies. Presentations of work related to this project were given at the annual meetings of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economics (AERE), the World Congress of Environmental and Resource Economists (Sweden),the Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association (NAREA), the American Geophysical Union (AGU), the North American Regional Science Association, the American Agricultural Economics Association (AAEA). and the Poplar/Willow Forum. Presentations have also been given to government agencies such as the US Department of Energy, US Department of Agriculture,US Environmental Protection Agency, and Pennslyvania Department of Environmental Qualityas well as at various academic workshops and seminars including the Colorado School of Mines, University of Georgia, the University of Connecticut, the University of California-San Diego, Stanford University, Purdue University, and Pennsylvania State University. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?We will continue our work on the integrated impacts of water availibility and variability and role that institutions play in these outcomes. Our approach will be to incorporate data and information on water institutions into a hydrologic model of the U.S. that is coupled to crop, land use, and power system models to provide constraints on the supply of water. This integrated modeling system is coordinated by a regional economic model of the U.S. that passes prices and deman d to the various model componenets to capture the competing demands for water and the regional economic implications. We will be continuing work in the area of flood risk by collecting and collating differnt data sources, doing lab experiments, and estimating econometric models.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Goal 1: a. We continue to conduct research in the area of water scarcity with a specific focus on improving our understanding of how water institutions affect economically efficient allocations of scare water resources. We are finding that existing water rights in the western U.S. favor the allocation of scarce water for irrigation over urban uses. Eliminating the prior appropriation allocation scheme where water is allocated based on "first-come first served," and allowing water to be allocated to the highest value uses, would lead to a larger share of water allocated to urban uses. Outside the U.S., we are conducting research looking at how different types of irrigation water - surface vs. ground and rechargeable vs. non-rechargeable - impact short-term labor supply decisions in India. The results from this research show that households in India with access to stable sources of water, from fossil-water wells, are less likely migrate given the implicit guarantee of this water, at least in the short run. The long-run implications, however, are less well known given the rate at which this water is being used. b. Several projects investigate the role of price and non-price factors in resource management. These projects primarily focus on water resources to estimates drivers of heterogeneity in demand elasticity as well as behavioral, social, and cognitive determinants of consumptions. Projects under this goal include: Price perceptions in water demand. We find that consumers underestimate the cost of water, and that updated information increases water use. The results provide insight into potential tradeoffs between information failure and externalities. Estimating water demand at the intensive and extensive margins. We find that prices increase the probability of adopting drought-resistant landscape and have important long-term consequences for water demand. Behavioral motivations behind heterogenous responses to social comparison messages. We find that the content of the normative message is a driver of the results, and that nudges can be better optimized to increase water conservation, particularly among lower-use households. Do behavioral nudges interact with prevailing economic incentives? Pairing experimental and quasi-experimental evidence from water consumption.We find little evidence for the interaction of social comparisons and water prices, suggesting the mechanisms are primarily moral costs. We have research output examining the impacts of open-space conservation on net development. We analyzed farmers' decisions to grow bioenergy crops using payments for ecosystem services benefits (e.g., water quality benefits) of the crops. Our results indicate that farmers require a higher price to supply bioenergy crops than biofuel producers are willing to offer We also identify where farmers are most likely to supply bioenergy crops. Finally, we find that payments that are based on environmental effectiveness are 8-19% more cost effective than one-sized-fits-all uniform payments. Goal 2: a. Developed models and made methodological advances in nonmarket valuation by applying improvements in data and valuation methods to policy-relevant settings. We also developed models that help us better understand the distribution of public goods and the consequences of this distribution for nonmarket valuation. Projects under this goal include: Eliciting Preferences for Intrinsically Risky Attributes. We establish a new method for uncovering preferences for intrinsic attributes. We apply this method to show water supply risks appear to be more important than risks from new technology when evaluating new drinking water sources in Australia. Do Environmental Preferences Depend on the Weather? We find that stated preferences depend on the weather close to the survey. Putting Your Money Where Your Mouth Is. We find differences in preferences when respondents' financial incentives are linked to their survey responses. Who Signs up for Free Raingardens? Distributional Effect of Green Infrastructure Subsidies. We show that eligibility and selection effects are important for evaluating the distributional consequences of green infrastructure policies. Wealthier households are eligible, but less wealthy households participate conditional on eligibility. b. Built a hedonic housing price model for the city of Houston that focused on localized flood risk, as opposed to more aggregate risk based on traditional FEMA flood maps. The model combines yearly housing transactions data with house elevation and NOAA stream-gauge data. We find that while aggregate measures of risk don't show up in the model, more localized measures do which suggests that in places like Houston that flood a lot it is important to model and capture local effects. c. We also have work analyzing the impacts of increased flood insurance premiums on housing prices and housing stock. The focus of this work is six counties in Pennsylvania. Our results indicate that housing values in Centre County decrease by more than 11% when a property is mapped into a flood zone, however, these values do not rebound when a property is mapped out of a flood zone. Additionally, we found that subsidizing flood insurance lead to about 8% more houses in floodplains in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania than there would have been with actuarially fair premiums. This along with the price effects lead to flood damages 13.3% in excess of socially optimal levels. Goal 3: a. Conducted research and built models to better understand how climate-change driven fluctuations in temperature and precipitation are and will continue impacting the reliability of the power system in the U.S. We are finding that future climate scenarios predict water shortages in the western U.S. that will lead to a reduction in water required for the thermal cooling of power plants. This will lead to intermittent shortages in power especially in the Southwest which will lead to declines in industrial productivity and welfare. b. Developed a model to estimate the optimal time to use prescribed fire based on different management goals such as reduced wildfire risk, increased recreational opportunities, and improved home values in the wildland urban interface. Results suggest that using prescribed fire in Pennsylvania every 20-30 years will maximize the recreational value of forests. This is consistent with ecological models that recommend burning every 10-30 years to maintain healthy oak ecosystems. In New Jersey, 2-5-year burn intervals will maximize recreational values, which is consistent with ecological models that suggest 5-year burn intervals to maintain healthy pine ecosystems. c. Develop an integrated model to analyze the optimal policies for minimizing the damages done due to the spread of aquatic invasive species. The study area for this research was the fresh-water lake system of Northern Wisconsin. In this work we propose a novel framework for determining the optimal management strategy to maximize the value of a lake system net of damages from invasive species.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Jiang, W., K.Y. Zipp, M.H. Langholtz, and M.G. Jacobson, 2019, "Modeling Spatial Dependence and Economic Hotspots in Landowners' Willingness to Supply Bioenergy Crops in the Northeastern United States," Global Change Biology (GCB) Bioenergy, 11(9): 1086-1097.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Jiang, W., H. Fu, M.G. Jacobson, K.Y. Zipp, J. Jin, 2019, "The Impact of Biomass Crop Assistance Program on the United States Forest Product Market: An Application of the Global Forest Product Model," Forests, 10(3): 215-227.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Toth, G.G., P.K. Ramachandran Hair, M.G. Jacobson, Y. Widyaningsih, C.P. Duffy, 2019, "Malawi's Energy Needs and Agroforestry: Impact on Woodlots on Fuelwood Sales," 50: 101-108.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Jiang, W., M.G. Jacobson, M. Langholtz, 2019, "A Sustainability Framework for Assessing Studies about Marginal Lands for Planting Perennial Energy Crops," Biofuels, Bioproducts, and Biorefining, 13: 228-240.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Klein, P.J.,..., J.S. Shortle,..., E.W. Duncan (29 Authors), 2019, "Advancing the Sustainability of U.S. Agriculture through Long-Term Research," Journal of Environmental Quality, 47(6): 1412-1425.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Zipp, K.Y., D.J. Lewis, B. Provencher, M.J. Vander Zanden, 2019, "The Spatial Dynamics of the Economic Impacts of an Aquatic Invasive Species: An Empirical Analysis," Land Economics, 95(1): 1-18.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Shr, Y-H, K.Y. Zipp, 2019, "The Aftermath of Flood Zone Remapping: The Asymmetric Impact of Flood Maps on Housing Prices," Land Economics, 95(2): 174-192.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Li, X., K.Y. Zipp, 2019, "Dynamics and Uncertainty in Land-Use Conversion for Perennial Energy Crop Production: Exploring Effects of Payments for Ecosystem Services Policies," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, 48(2): 328-358.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Rice, W.L., B.D. Taff, P.B. Newman, Z.D. Miller, A.L. D'Antonio, J.T. Baker, C. Monz, J.N. Newton, K.Y. Zipp, 2019, "Grand Expectations: Understanding Visitor Motivations and Outcome Interference in Grand Teton National Park, Wyoming," Journal of Park and Recreation Administration, 37(2): 26-44.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2019 Citation: Zipp, K.Y., L. Zikatanov, Y. Wu, K. Wu, 2019, "Optimal Management to Minimize the Damages Caused by Aquatic Invasive Species."
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2019 Citation: Colby, S., K.Y. Zipp, 2019, "Excess Vulnerability from Subsidized Flood Insurance: Housing Market Adaptation When Premiums Equal Expected Flood Damage."
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Brent, D.A., L. Gangadharan, A. Mihut, M.C. Villeval, 2019, "Taxation, Redistribution, and Observability in Social Dilemmas," Journal of Public Economic Theory, 21(5): 826-846.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2019 Citation: Brent, D.A., 2019, "Estimating Water Demand at the Intensive and Extensive Margins."
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2019 Citation: Brent, D.A., M.B. Ward, 2019, "Price Perceptions in Water Demand," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management."
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Dorner, Z., D.A. Brent, A. Leroux, 2019, "Eliciting Preferences for Intrinsically Risky Attributes," Land Economics, 95(4): 494-514.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Brent, D.A., K. Lorah, 2019, "The Geography of Civic Crowdfunding," Cities, 90: 122-130.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2019 Citation: Fisher-Vanden, K., "The Role of Water Governance and Irrigation Technologies in the West in Water Resources Resilience and Vulnerability," Department of Energy Principal Investigators Meeting, November 5, 2018-November 9, 2018.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2019 Citation: Rice, W.L., P.B. Newman, B.D. Taff, Z.D. Miller, K.Y. Zipp, 2019, "Beyond Benefits: Toward a Recreational Ecosystem Service Management Framework."
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2019 Citation: Li, X., K.Y. Zipp, J.S. Shortle, F. Jiang, T.L. Veith, H.E. Gall, 2019, "Integrated Assessment Modeling for Design of Riparian Buffer Systems and Incentives for Adoption."
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2019 Citation: Rice, W.L., B.D. Taff, Z.D. Miller, P. Newman, K.Y. Zipp, B. Pan, J.N. Newton, A. D'Antonio, 2019, "Connecting Motivations to Outcomes: A Study of Park Visitors' Outcome Attainment."
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Brent, D.A., N.W. Chan, 2019, "Local Public Goods and the Crowding-Out Hypothesis: Evidence from Civic Crowdfunding," Economics Bulletin, 39: 3.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2019 Citation: Fisher-Vanden, "Capturing Energy-Land Interactions in a Integrated Modeling Framework," Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business: Seminar, December 7, 2018.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2019 Citation: Fisher-Vanden, K., "Legal Hydrology: Incorporating Water Institutions and Legal Infrastructure: An Integrated Energy-Water-Land Modeling Framework," Penn State University, Water Insights Seminar, January 29, 2019.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2019 Citation: Fisher-Vanden, K., "Capturing Energy-Water-Land Interactions in a Integrated Modeling Framework," University of California-San Diego, School of Global Strategy and Policy, February 12, 2019.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Wrenn, D.H. J. Yi, B. Zhang, 2019, "Housing Prices and Marriage Entry in China," Regional Science and Urban Economics," 74: 118-130.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Wrenn, D.H., H.K. Klaiber, 2019, "Space and Time: A Competing Risks Analysis of the Impact of Property Taxes and Zoning Restrictions on Residential Development," 60(3): 1097-1130.


Progress 10/01/17 to 09/30/18

Outputs
Target Audience:• Academic researchers across institutions and participants at academic conferences • University stakeholders • Federal agencies, including EPA, USDA, and DOE • State and local officials • General public Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Nothing Reported How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?The outputs of this project over the past year include presentations at workshops and conferences, departmental seminars, and presentations to government agencies. Presentations of work related to this project were given at the annual meetings of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economics (AERE), the Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association (NAREA), the American Geophysical Union (AGU), the North American Regional Science Association, the American Agricultural Economics Association (AAEA). and the Poplar/Willow Forum. Presentations have also been given to government agencies such as the US Department of Energy, US Department of Agriculture, and US Environmental Protection Agency as well as at various academic workshops and seminars including the University of Illinois, the University of Connecticut, Binghamton University, Stanford University, and Pennsylvania State University. Specific examples include: Workshop on the Economics of Flooding and Coastal Erosion, London UK. "The Effects of Floodplain Remapping and Increases in Flood Insurance Premiums on Housing Markets." June 22, 2018 World Congress of Environmental and Resource Economists, 2018 Thematic Session "How Flood Risk Seeps into Housing Markets": Floodplain Housing Stock Dynamics AAEA Annual Meeting, 2018 Selected Paper (Lightning Round): Factors Affecting Farmers Adoptions of Flexible Riparian Buffers (presented by Xiaogu Li) NAREA Annual Meeting & Workshop, 2018 Selected Paper: Optimal spatial-dynamic management policies to minimize the damages caused by aquatic invasive species NAREA Annual Meeting &Workshop, 2018 Selected Paper: Factors Affecting Farmers Adoptions of Flexible Riparian Buffers What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? We will be continuing our work broadly on the integrated impacts of water variability and the role of water institutions.Our approach is to incorporate data and information on water institutions into a hydrologic model of the US that is coupled to crop, land use, and power system models to provide constraints on the supply of water.This integrated modeling system is coordinated by a regional economic model of the US that passes prices and demand to the various component models to capture the competing demands for water and the regional economic implications. We will be continuing work in the area of flood risk by collecting and collating differnt data sources, doing lab experiments, and estimating econometric models. Continue working on valuation and assessment of value chin opportunities in developing countries to alleviate poverty.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Major Goals of the Project (1) Resource Management Analyzed the impacts of open-space conservation on net development. We find that conserved open space mostly reallocated development in a small neighborhood (in a half-mile radius) rather than altering the total amount of development. Analyzed farmers' decisions to grow bioenergy crops using payments for ecosystem services benefits (e.g. water quality benefits) of the crops. We find that a targeted payment for environmental services (PES) policy based on the environmental effectiveness of the crop land is found to be slightly more effective in providing nitrogen reductions than a uniform PES policy with cost savings of 8-19%. Also using a survey of farmers in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and New York we found that Switchgrass has the lowest mean willingness to accept (WTA) price, $168/Mg, followed by miscanthus with a mean WTA price of $190/Mg, and willow with a WTA price of $229/Mg and farmers with marginal lands require a 4-9% lower WTA price. This work has been presented to the Center of Excellence ASCENT - the Aviation Sustainability Center - group and the Northeast Woody/Warm-season Biomass Consortium along with at professional organizational meetings. Elicit price information and tracked subsequent water use in a field experiment. Consumers overestimated the cost of water and increased consumption after learning the true cost. Merge remote sensing data with water metering records and find that increases in water prices causes households to adopt less water intensive landscapes. Estimate the effect of financial literacy on energy efficiency in a choice experiment. More financially literate respondents are willing to pay more for reductions in annual energy costs and make more consistent investment decisions. Estimate the effect of pricing in high occupancy vehicle (HOT) lanes. Drivers reduce the use of a high occupancy vehicle lane when the price increases. The benefits of the lane primarily stem from improved reliability as opposed to time savings. A randomized field experiment on water conservation in Reno and provides evidence that behavioral nudges primarily operate through moral as opposed to financial mechanisms. Study the interaction of prices and behavioral nudges using a field experiment on water conservation. There are no effects of prices on efficacy of social comparisons, suggesting the nudges work primarily through moral mechanisms. Analyze taxation and redistribution can improve both efficiency and equity in a lab setting. Social observability primarily causes a faster convergence to the private and inefficient Nash equilibrium. (2) Economic Valuation Analyzed the welfare loss due to the spread of aquatic invasive species in Northern Wisconsin due to boater traffic between invaded and uninvaded lakes. We find that spillover effects of aquatic invasive species due to invaded lakes becoming a source for further invasions can be as high as 20% as the total welfare damage from aquatic invasive species (AIS), as well as, economic losses from AIS dwarfing state funding in Wisconsin. Analyzed the impacts of increased flood insurance premiums on housing prices and housing stock in floodplains in 6 counties in Pennsylvania. We find that a 50% increase in national flood insurance program (NFIP) premiums results in a 10.6% short-term loss in property values, with about half of that recuperated in the long-run as housing stocks contract by 8.6% over decades. Develop a methodology for combining experimentally elicited preferences with choice experiments using a risk in water supply choices. Provide evidence that weather impacts nonmarket valuation in both revealed and stated preference settings. Show that incentivizing stated preference valuation exercises reduces the marginal utility of income, consistent with hypothetical bias. Analyze a large platform of civic crowdfunding to show there is little evidence of the concerns that civic crowdfunding increases inequality of local public goods. Estimate a variety of distributional effects of subsidies for green stormwater infrastructure and highlight the role selection plays in estimation of capitalization effects. (3) Integrated Policy and Decision-Making Nothing to report during this timeframe.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Calvin, K., K. Fisher-Vanden, 2017, Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture: The role of Integrated Assessment Models, Environmental Research Letters, 12:115004, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa843c
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Fan, Q., K. Fisher-Vanden, and A. Klaiber, 2018, Climate Change, Migration, and Regional Economic Impacts in the US, Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 5(3): 643-671.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Ciscar, J-C., K. Fisher-Vanden, and D. Lobell, 2018, Synthesis and Review: an inter-method comparison of climate change impacts on agriculture, Environmental Research Letters, 13:070104, http://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aac7cb.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Zipp, K.Y., D. J. Lewis, and B. Provencher (2017) "Does the conservation of land reduce development? An econometric-based landscape simulation with land market feedbacks" Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 81: 19-37.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Jiang, W., K.Y. Zipp, and M. Jacobson (2018) \Economic Assessment of Landowners Willingness to Supply Energy Crops on Marginal Lands in the Northeastern of the United States." Biomass and Bioenergy 113: 22-30.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2019 Citation: Zipp, K.Y., D. J. Lewis, B. Provencher, and M.J. Vander Zanden (2019) "The Spatial Dynamics of the Economic Impacts of an Aquatic Invasive Species: An Empirical Analysis" Land Economics 95(1): 1-18.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Horan, R.D., and J. Shortle (2017). Endogenous Risk and Point-Nonpoint Trading Ratios. American Journal of Agricultural Economics.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Brent, DA and Ward MB, "Energy Efficiency and Financial Literacy", Journal of Environmental Economics & Management, 2018, 90, pp. 181-216
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2018 Citation: Wrenn, Douglas H., Klaiber, H. Allen and David A. Newburn. 2018. Price Based Policies for Managing Residential Development: Impacts on Water Quality. (Revisions Requested: Resource and Energy Economics.)
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2018 Citation: Zaveri, Esha, Douglas H. Wrenn, and Karen Fisher-Vanden. 2018. The Impact of Water Access on Short-Term Migration in Rural India. (Revisions Requested: Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics)
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Shortle, J. and R.D. Horan (2017). Nutrient Pollution: A Wicked Challenge for Economic Instruments. Water Economics and Policy.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Brent DA, Gross A, "Dynamic Road Pricing and the Value of Time and Reliability", Journal of Regional Science, 2018, 58(2) pp. 330-349
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2018 Citation: Brent DA, Lott C, Taylor M, Cook J, Rollins K, Stoddard S, Behavioral Motivations behind Heterogeneous Responses to Social Comparison Messages
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2018 Citation: Brent, Daniel and Gangadharan, Lata and Mihut, Anca and Villeval, Marie Claire, Taxation, Redistribution and Observability in Social Dilemmas
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2018 Citation: Brent DA, Estimating Water Demand at the Intensive and Extensive Margins
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2018 Citation: Dorner Z, Brent DA, Leroux A, Eliciting Preferences for Intrinsically Risky Attributes
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2018 Citation: Brent DA, Lorah K, The Geography of Civic Crowdfunding
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Jacobson, M. Y. Shr, F. Delemans, C. Magaju, R. Ciannella. 2018. Using a choice experiment approach to assess production tradeoffs for developing the croton value chain in Kenya. Forest Policy and Economics 86:76-85
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Jiang, W. Jacobson, M. & Langholtz, M., A Sustainability Framework for Assessing Studies about Marginal Lands for Planting Perennial Energy Crops Biofuels, Bioproducts & Biorefining
  • Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Shortle, J., and A. Cook. 2018. Water Quality Trading. Chapter 15 in G.L. Cramer, K.P. Paudel, and A. Schmitz (Eds.) The Routledge Handbook of Agricultural Economics. Routledge.