Source: UNIV OF MINNESOTA submitted to NRP
TRADE, ENVIRONMENT AND AGRICULTURAL POLICY IN UNCERTAIN TIMES
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
COMPLETE
Funding Source
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
1013996
Grant No.
(N/A)
Cumulative Award Amt.
(N/A)
Proposal No.
(N/A)
Multistate No.
(N/A)
Project Start Date
Oct 1, 2017
Project End Date
Sep 30, 2022
Grant Year
(N/A)
Program Code
[(N/A)]- (N/A)
Recipient Organization
UNIV OF MINNESOTA
(N/A)
ST PAUL,MN 55108
Performing Department
Applied Economics
Non Technical Summary
For 35 years, my research has focused on three international areas: trade, environment and agriculture in a global context. Today, political and technological shifts have placed each in a remarkably changed context. Trade policy--dominated since World War II by a neo-liberalconsensus--has been breaking down since the conclusion of the Uruguay Round in the early 1990s. Environmental policy, dominated since the 1980s by growing concerns over climate, air and water, has been challenged by those who deny or disparage such problems as overstated. Agriculture, once considered the foundation of economic development in developing countries, is increasingly marginalized in policy discussions. In the face of these challenges to the neoliberal consensus over trade, environment and agriculture, new efforts are needed to analyze how our past experience and anticipation of future developments should inform our current choices. This problem has a theoretical basis: the problem of analyzing choice over time.
Animal Health Component
100%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
(N/A)
Applied
100%
Developmental
(N/A)
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
1310440207025%
1321510301025%
6062020301025%
7045010301025%
Goals / Objectives
Accordingly, my new research program will have four objectives. The first three involve a re-orientation of my past research program. The fourth involves a new effort to develop a workable theory of choice over time. In the area of trade policy, the challenge is to re-examine how growing protectionist pressures, such as attacks on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), NAFTA, and the MTN (Multilateral Trade Negotiations), are likely to affect economic growth and development, both in the OECD and especially in developing and the least-developed countries (Irwin, 2017). The specific research objective will be to consider the likely consequences for economic growth rates. In environmental policy, the divisions of opinion over the threats posed to climate, air and water have induced a shift in the primary focus of policy development away from national and international institutions to more local efforts at state and city levels (Bloomberg and Pope, 2017). The concrete objective will be to consider local GHG implementation strategies. Agricultural policy, increasingly marginalized, is now affected more by private input suppliers and international trading firms than by governments. The objective will be to consider federal cut-backs in crop insurance and food stamps.In addition to the changes in these areas, I will analyze the way in which decisions are made over time (see Runge, C.F., S. Polasky, J. Coggins, and J.A. Johnson, 2017, "Retrospect and Prospect."). These judgments have been treated by economists in a reduced form that assumes the past is sunk, that anticipations of future events are discounted exponentially, and that each period is additively separable from the periods before and after it (what Koopmans, 1960, called "history independence"). This framework is inadequate to an assessment of how retrospect and prospect impinge in a non-separable way on current decisions. Target journals include the American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Foreign Affairs and Land Economics.
Project Methods
My approach will be, as in the past, wide-ranging qualitative and quantitative analysis of trade flows and policy, environmental data and agricultural indicators. In the area of choice over time, I may attempt to design behavioral economic experiments with graduate research assistance. Impacts will be felt by Minnesota farmers, consumers and policy makers.

Progress 10/01/19 to 09/30/20

Outputs
Target Audience:There are numerous target audiences for this project. They include local businesses, state legislators and state government workers, federal employees, and members of Congress. Changes/Problems:Substantial effort has gone into revising and revamping the Great Challenges Curriculum (GCC) course: 'World Food Problems: Agronomics, Economics, and Hunger" to be taught online during the COVID-19 pandemic. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Course work for undergraduates and graduate students. Substantial effort has gone into revising and revamping the Great Challenges Curriculum (GCC) course: 'World Food Problems: Agronomics, Economics, and Hunger" to be taught online during the COVID-19 pandemic. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?My approach will be, as in the past, wide-ranging qualitative and quantitative analysis of trade flows and policy, environmental data, and agricultural indicators. In the area of choice over time, I may attempt to design behavioral economic experiments with graduate research assistantsand am running neuroscience simulations with David Redish. Impacts will be felt by Minnesota farmers, consumers, and policymakers. I will produce publishable articles, present seminars, and give talks to local groups and to my classes on the subjects covered. I am a consulting author to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). I expect to publish the results in major journals. Promising new collaboration with David Redish in the Neurosciences Department at the University of Minnesota has been established. Through classroom instruction and presentations to academic and public forums and publications. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Continue to teach courses, conduct research, work with graduate students, make presentations to academic and public audiences, publish academic research, and non-academic public policy analysis. I will continue to work closely with my colleagues at the Institute on the Environment, in the Department of Applied Economics, and in the Department of Neurosciences in the Medical School to advance my research projects and find publication outlets as well as continuing to develop a collaborative research program. I continue to advise five active graduate students: Barbara Cole (PhD), Haseeb Ali (PhD), Shuai An (PhD), Linnea Graham (MS), and Orges Ormanidhi (PhD). On the teaching front, I am teaching one undergraduate Grand Challenges Curriculum (GCC) course with agronomist Peter Morrell in Fall 2020 (approximately 40 students): "World Food Problems: Agronomics, Economics, and Hunger." Together, Professor Morrell and I have completely revised the course so that it can be effectively taught online using Zoom. We have made major efforts to better incorporate issues of diversity and the relevance of COVID-19 to world food problems. I taught one undergraduate course: ApEc 3007, "Applied Macroeconomics: Policy, Trade and Development" to 25 students in Spring 2019 and will again in spring 2021. I will also teach ApEc 5711, "Agricultural and Environmental Policy" in Spring 2021.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? This year has seen the development of a new and strengthening research relationship with the Department of Neuroscience (David Redish), the Institute on the Environment (IonE)(Jamie Gerber), and a second-year graduate student (Shuai An) who is working with all of these institutional elements. Together with Redish, I have completely revised the manuscript to reflect his work in the neuroscience of decision making applied to natural disasters arising from climate change. This work in progress concludes the manuscripts noted above, A Neuroscience-Based Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on the Housing Market, which will be submitted to PNAS. In addition, in 2020 I published two additional refereed journal articles. The first, an offshoot of earlier work on medical decision making on obesity, "Cost-Effectiveness of MRI-Based Identification of Pre-Symptomatic Autism in a High-Risk Population," was published in Frontiers in Psychiatry, a first-line medical journal. The second is an implementation of the idea of choice over time, with MS student Linnea Graham, "Hunger as a Weapon of War: Hitler's Hunger Plan, Native American Resettlement and Yemen," published in April in Food Policy, the primary food policy journal in the applied economics literature. I gave seminars on this last paper in the Department of Applied Economics and IonE. In September 2020, I published a peer-reviewed essay in the Journal of Economic Literature on a new biography, Frank Ramsey: A Sheer Excess of Powers, by Cheryl Misak.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Cost-Effectiveness of MRI-Based Identification of Presymptomatic Autism in a High Risk Population. Williamson, Ian O., Elison, Jed T., Wolff, Jason J., Runge, Carlisle Ford. IN: Frontiers in Psychiatry, v.11, Article 60. doi:10.3389/fpsyt.2020.00060. February 16, 2020.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Book review of "Frank Ramsey: A Sheer Excess of Powers" by Cheryl Misak. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2020. Runge, Carlilse Ford. IN: Journal of Economic Literature, v.58, no.3, pp.793-798. DOI:10.1257/jel.58.3.793. 2020.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Viewpoint: Hunger as a Weapon of War: Hitlers Hunger Plan, Native American Resettlement and Starvation in Yemen. Runge, C. Ford, Graham, Linnea. IN: Food Policy, Viewpoint. v.92. doi: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2020.101835, April 2020.
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: The good, the bad, and the gullible. Runge, C. Ford. IN: MinnPost online, December 11, 2020.


Progress 10/01/18 to 09/30/19

Outputs
Target Audience:I will produce publishable articles, present seminars and give talks to local groups and to my classes on the subjects covered. I have also been asked to join as a consulting author to the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Changes/Problems:The major change in my research program involves the integration of computational neuroscience with economic analysis and evaluation of changes in asset values, especially land and real estate, in the face of climate change. This includes my participation as a contributing author to the forthcoming report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Nothing Reported How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?My approach will be, as in the past, wide-ranging qualitative and quantitative analysis of trade flows and policy, environmental data and agricultural indicators. In the area of choice over time, I may attempt to design behavioral economic experiments with graduate research assistance, and am running neuroscience simulations with David Redish. Impacts will be felt by Minnesota farmers, consumers and policy makers. I will produce publishable articles, present seminars and give talks to local groups and to my classes on the subjects covered. I have also been asked to join as a consulting author to the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). I expect to publish the results in major journals. Promising new collaboration with David Redish in the Neurosciences Department at the University of Minnesota has been established. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?I will continue to work closely with my colleagues at the Institute on the Environment, in the Department of Applied Economics and in the Department of Neurosciences in the Medical School to advance my research projects and find publication outlets as well as continuing to develop a collaborative research program.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? This year has seen the development of a new and strengthening research relationship with the Department of Neuroscience (David Redish), the Institute on the Environment (IonE)(Jamie Gerber) and a second-year graduate student (Shuai An) who is working with all of these institutional elements. Together with Redish, I have completely revised the Retrospect and Prospect manuscript to reflect his work in the neuroscience of decision making applied to natural disasters arising from climate change. Work in progress includes a manuscript, The Role of Memory in Flood-Related Housing Asset Pricing: Implications of Retrospective and Prospective Considerations of Memory. In addition I have two other manuscripts under review, one an offshoot of earlier work on medical decision making on obesity, Cost-Effectiveness of MRI-Based Identification of Pre-Symptomatic Autism in a High Risk Population, under review at Frontiers in Psychiatry. The other is an implementation of the idea of choice over time, with MS student Linnea Graham, Hunger as a Weapon of War: Hitler's Hunger Plan, Native American Resettlement and Yemen, under review at Food Policy. I have given seminars on the last paper in the Department of Applied Economics and IonE. In addition, I have published a popular article on agricultural policy and trade in the Star Tribune: Tariffs are bad for export markets, and that's bad for Minnesota, and two articles in the online journal MinnPost: How the right sold out to Russia, and Tariffs, retaliation, and the flu.

Publications

  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Tariffs, retaliation, and the flu. MinnPost, July 9, 2019.
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: How the right sold out to Russia. MinnPost, February 27, 2019.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2020 Citation: Cost-Effectiveness of MRI-Based Identification of Pre-Symptomatic Autism in a High Risk Population, under review at Frontiers in Psychiatry
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2020 Citation: Hunger as a Weapon of War: Hitlers Hunger Plan, Native American Resettlement and Yemen, under review at Food Policy.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Other Year Published: 2020 Citation: The Role of Memory in Flood-Related Housing Asset Pricing: Implications of Retrospective and Prospective Considerations of Memory.


Progress 10/01/17 to 09/30/18

Outputs
Target Audience:There are numerous target audiences for this project. They include local businesses, state legislators, and state government workers, federal employees and members of Congress. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Course work for undergraduates and graduate students. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Through classroom instruction and presentations to academic and public forums. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Continue to teach courses, conduct research, work with graduate students, make presentations to academic and public audiences, publish academic research and non-academic public policy analysis.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Seminars and presentations to academic and non-academic audiences were given. Scientific and public opinion articles were published. This was reflected in several articles on U.S. tariffs and retaliation by China and others published in the October 8, 2018 and July 20, 2018 Minneapolis Star Tribune: "Tariffs are bad for export markets, and that's bad for Minnesota," and "Trump's policies bite farmers in two ways: Tariffs have gotten most of the attention, but as important is the crimp on labor." This was also discussed in an article which appeared in the June 14, 2018 Omaha World-Herald: "Midland voices: Ethanol gives consumers a raw deal." Collaboration was undertaken with colleagues in the University of Minnesota Neurosciences Department. This type of decision making relating to neurobiology, as well as attention to the issue of obesity, was reflected in a jointly-authored refereed article in the September, 2018 journal, Public Health Nutrition, "The effect of proportional v. value pricing on fountain drink purchases: Results of a field experiment." One undergraduate and two graduate courses were taught. New curricula was developed to teach a Grand Challenge Course entitled, "World Food Problems: Agronomics, Economics and Hunger" in collaboration with Paul Porter of the University of Minnesota, Department of Agronomy and Plant Genetics.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: The Effect of Proportional Versus Value Pricing on Fountain Drink Purchases: Results from a Field Experiment, Gollust, Sarah E., Tang, Xuyang, Runge, Carlisle Ford, French, Simone A. Rothman, Alexander J. IN: Public Health Nutrition, v.21, no.13, pp.2518-2522.
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Midlands Voices: Ethanol gives consumers a raw deal. Runge, C. Ford. IN: Omaha World-Herald, June 14, 2018.
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: State farmers would have much to lose in a U.S.-China trade war. Runge, C. Ford. IN: Star Tribune: Commentary, March 30, 2018.
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Tariffs are bad for export markets, and thats bad for Minnesota. Runge, C. Ford. IN: Star Tribune: Commentary, October 8, 2018.
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Trump's policies bite farming country in two ways. Runge, C. Ford. IN: Star Tribune: Opinion, July 22, 2018.
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Striking commonalities: McCarthy and Trump, Cohn and Cohen. Runge, C. Ford. IN: MinnPost online, June 8, 2018.
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: We shouldn't forget to remember Tim Pawlenty. Runge, C. Ford. IN: MinnPost online, July 6, 2018.