Progress 06/01/17 to 05/31/23
Outputs
Target Audience:Farmers, water managers, and local communities affected by aquifer declines were reached though outreach publications, presentations, and media interviews. Graduate students developed experience writing research articles and presenting at national academic conferences. Undergraduate students were also reached through a course that Dr. Hendricks teaches at Kansas State University with a section on collective action to manage water resources. Academic researchers and instructors were reached through peer-reviewed publications. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Support was provided for three different graduate students to complete their dissertation research and present at national academic conferences and engage with stakeholders. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Results were presented at various meetings of water managers and other stakeholders. An extension publication was published online and media interviews were conducted. Undergraduate curriculum on collective action and water management was developed and implemented in the classroom. Papers were published in peer-reviewed journals. Results were presented at national academic conferences. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?
Nothing Reported
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
Objective 1: We conducted a clustering analysis to categorize counties across the entire High Plains Aquifer with different characteristics of groundwater stocks and analyzed how irrigated acres have changed over time in these different types of counties. Counties with more rapid declines in groundwater stocks are characterized by rapid increases in irrigated area before 1980 and then declining irrigated area after 1980. Counties that have modest or no decline in groundwater stocks have seen irrigated area stay constant. We also developed a better understanding of the role of surficial hydrologic conditions on groundwater/surface water interactions.A pertinent finding is that the High Plains Aquifer in central Nebraska has three distinct hydrologic regimes. Objective 2: We conducted two different surveys of irrigators to understand their support for local policy to reduce allocations to conserve groundwater. A unique aspect of these surveys was that we collaborated with the Groundwater Management Districts to ensure that our survey was relevant and that irrigators perceived the survey responses as consequential. We developed econometric models to analyze the survey responses. We examined how aquifer characteristics and user characteristics affect the support for allocations to reduce water use in a region and the method used to define those allocations. Our results reveal that farmers located in areas where the aquifer is more depleted support larger reductions in groundwater use. But we also find that characteristics of the users matter as much or more than the status of the aquifer in determining support. We also find that none of the methods of defining allocations are preferred by a majority of farmers and there is no clear evidence that aquifer characteristics or observed farmer characteristics are the key factors affecting the probability that a farmer ranks a method as the best option making it difficult for groundwater managers to identify which method is more likely to be considered fair. Two papers were published that examine how farmers have adapted to water restrictions. The first paper examines a restriction that was implemented with the support of local irrigators. Results indicate that farmers reduced water use by 26% due to the policy with most of the response due to reductions in water use intensity on the same crops rather than through reductions in irrigated acreage. The results imply that the short-run welfare impact of the policy was smaller than a policy that reduces irrigated acreage. The second paper examines a restriction that was imposed by the state without input from local irrigators. This restriction imposed smaller allocations on more junior irrigators. Results indicate that junior water rights had to reduce irrigated acres, leading to larger losses in welfare. Results also indicate that irrigators manage water use in a manner consistent with a dynamical optimization when faced with binding allocations. We also developed a paper to estimate how different attributes of water rights are capitalized into land values. We find that even though the water rights are incomplete--due to the physical properties of groundwater and regulatory uncertainty--that the water rights confer significant value. Our results indicate that the High Plains Aquifer in Kansas is not purely open access. We also find that water right allocations and seniority are capitalized into land values, and this creates a challenge for imposing new allocations. However, the value of water right attributes is fairly small which explains why local solutions have tended to ignore water right attributes. Another theme of our research efforts was to understand the potential value of local water conservation efforts by estimating the impact of groundwater depletion on economics outcomes and agricultural production. We published a paper that uses data across the entire High Plains Aquifer to estimate how differences in the stock of groundwater affect the economic returns to land. When the initial saturated thickness is less than 70 feet, most of the economic impact (67%) of a decrease in the stock of groundwater occurs through an adjustment in irrigated acreage, while 33% occurs through reduced irrigated rental rates. When saturated thickness is larger, nearly all of the response is through irrigated acres. Simulation results reveal that the annual present value of returns to land are expected to decrease in the High Plains region by $126.7 million in 2050, and by $266.0 million in 2100. We also wrote a paper that estimates how groundwater stocks affect corn and wheat production across the High Plains Aquifer. We find that corn production is smaller in areas with smaller groundwater stocks and wheat production is larger. Projections for changes in corn and wheat production to 2050 and 2100 due to expected aquifer depletion are simulated. We also estimated models for how access to the aquifer impacts the livestock and agribusiness sectors due to spillovers from the grain market. We find that the High Plains Aquifer led to large increases in cattle production and input expenditures. We also estimated how other important factors affect irrigation withdrawals. The first paper estimates how irrigation withdrawals change due to farmers adopting a more efficient center pivot irrigation system. Utilizing new econometric estimators, we show that the conversion of center pivot to LEPA had no significant impact on withdrawals. We also study the conversion from flood to center pivot that could be important in the Western US. We show that adoption of center pivot led to reduction in withdrawals in the short run and allowed farmers to avoid losing irrigated acres in the long run. We also estimated how irrigation withdrawals respond to changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration. We use the results of how farmers change their water use as weather changes to project changes in water use by mid-century due to climate change. We then estimate how the projected changes in water use translate to changes in the rate of aquifer depletion across different parts of the High Plains Aquifer. Objective 3: We published a paper that evaluates four different groundwater management plans in Kansas and developed policy implications. Some of the key findings are as follows. We find that the management plans generally follow collect action design principles, but the definition of boundaries and allocations could be improved. We also find that most irrigators support a management plan that would reduce depletion, but most of the existing plans have little impact on aquifer depletion, with the main exception being the Sheridan 6 LEMA. Voluntary management plans do not achieve sufficient participation. Based on our analysis, we find that efforts to manage groundwater have had more success if they are i) small-scale, ii) mandatory, and iii) include users in the development process. We presented results from one of our surveys at the Groundwater Management District (GMD 1) annual meeting to reach local stakeholders. The survey results indicated clear support for implementing allocations to reduce water use in the district. For one of the surveys, the Groundwater Management District utilized the survey results to support their own plans. We also presented results from the surveys at the Governor's Conference on the Future of Water to disseminate results broadly. We also synthesized our results on the value of water conservation in an extension publication titled "The Value of Groundwater in the High Plains Aquifer of Western Kansas." This paper summarized research that estimates on groundwater stocks affect land values, annual economic returns to land, and spillovers into the livestock and agribusiness sectors. Kansas State University also released a radio interview and a news release, along with other popular press media interviews.
Publications
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Perez-Quesada, G., N.P. Hendricks, and D.R. Steward. Forthcoming. The Economic Cost of Groundwater Depletion in the High Plains Aquifer. Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, in press. https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/726156
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Earnhart, D. and N.P. Hendricks. Forthcoming. Adapting to Water Restrictions: Intensive versus Extensive Adaptation over Time Differentiated by Water Right Seniority. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, in press. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ajae.12361
- Type:
Theses/Dissertations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2022
Citation:
Cameron-Harp, M. 2022. Essays on the Economics of Irrigation Efficiency and Carbon Markets. PhD Dissertation, Kansas State University. https://krex.k-state.edu/handle/2097/42851
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Patton, E. M., C. Adam, D. R. Steward, S. Datta, Effect of low-permeability layers on vadose well recharge rates, Groundwater for Sustainable Development, 21, May 2023.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gsd.2020.100353
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Under Review
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Edwards, E.C., N.P. Hendricks, and G.S. Sampson. The Capitalization of Incomplete Property Rights to the Groundwater Commons. Working paper. Available at: https://nphendricks.com/
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Under Review
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Cameron-Harp, M.V. and N.P. Hendricks. Efficiency and Water Use: Dynamic Effects of Irrigation Technology Adoption. Working paper. Available at: https://nphendricks.com/
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Under Review
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Obembe, O.S., N.P. Hendricks, S.V.K. Jagadish. Changes in Groundwater Irrigation Withdrawals due to Climate Change in Kansas. Working paper.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2022
Citation:
Hendricks, N.P. Preferences for Groundwater Management: A Survey of Kansas Irrigators Governors Conference on the Future of Water in Kansas, Manhattan, KS, November 17, 2022.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2022
Citation:
Hendricks, N.P. Kansas Water Policy and the Future of Irrigation Cheyenne County Farm Bureau Annual Banquet, St. Francis, KS, September 7, 2022.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2022
Citation:
Edwards, E., N.P. Hendricks, and G.S. Sampson. Agricultural Land Market Value of Prior Appropriation Water Rights Presented Paper, Priming the Pump for Groundwater Markets, Property and Environment Research Center, Bozeman, MT, September 19-20, 2022.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2022
Citation:
Perez-Quesada, G. and N.P. Hendricks. Crop production and groundwater scarcity in the US High Plains Selected Poster, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association meetings, Anaheim, CA, July 31-August 2, 2022.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2023
Citation:
Perez-Quesada G. Corn Production and Groundwater Scarcity in the US High Plains Selected Presentation, Universities Council on Water Resources, Fort Collins, CO, June 12-15, 2023.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2022
Citation:
Cameron-Harp, M.V., and N.P. Hendricks. Dynamic effects of irrigation technology: When increasing irrigation efficiency reduces groundwater use. Camp Resources XXVIII. August 9th, 2022.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2022
Citation:
Steward, David R., An open-source framework for nearly exact solutions to complex geoscience interactions (AEM), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23-27 May 2022, EGU22-10575, 2022.
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10575
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2019
Citation:
Steward, David R., Peak groundwater depletion: Towards sustainable groundwater management, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 21, EGU2019-3168, European Geosciences General Assembly 2019, Vienna, Austria, April 7-12, 2019.
https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2019/EGU2019-3168.pdf
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2019
Citation:
Steward, David R., Geoscience discovery precipitated by the Analytic Element Method, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 21, EGU2019-3174, European Geosciences General Assembly 2019, Vienna, Austria, April 7-12, 2019.
https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2019/EGU2019-3174.pdf
|
Progress 06/01/21 to 05/31/22
Outputs
Target Audience:Farmers, water managers, and local communities affected by aquifer declines were reached though an outreach publication and media interviews. Graduate students developed experience writing research articles and presenting at national academic conferences. Undergraduate students were also reached through a course that Dr. Hendricks teaches at Kansas State University with a section on collective action to manage resources with emphasis on water resources. Academics were reached through preparing paper for publication as journal articles. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?A graduate student published her dissertation and presented at the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA) annual meeting in 2021. Another grad student presented at a multi-state Hatch meeting and the AERE annual meeting in 2022. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Survey results were presented to an annual meeting of local water stakeholders. An extension publication was published online and media interviews were conducted to disseminate the information. Papers were submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journals. Results were presented at a national academic conference. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Objective 1: Insights from hydrologic models will be incorporated into the survey and other economic analysis. Objective 2: We will revise and resubmit papers that are already in submission at peer-reviewed journals. We will also submit papers for publication that analyze the survey results, estimate how production is impacted by groundwater stocks, estimate how water right characteristics are capitalized into land value, and estimate how farmers change water use in response to an upgrade in irrigation efficiency. Objective 3: Results from the survey will be shared at a local Farm Bureau meeting with farmers and at the Governor's Conference on the Future of Water.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
Objective 1: A clustering analysis was conducted to categorize counties with different characteristics of groundwater stocks and analyze how irrigated acres have changed over time in these different types of counties. Counties with more rapid declines in groundwater stocks are characterized by rapid increases in irrigated area before 1980 and then declining irrigated area after 1980. Counties that have modest or no decline in groundwater stocks have seen irrigated area stay constant. Objective 2: We wrote a paper that estimates the economic cost of aquifer depletion. The paper uses county level data on irrigated acres and rental rates across the entire High Plains Aquifer to estimate how differences in the stock of groundwater (i.e., saturated thickness) affect the economic returns to land. We propose a novel strategy to avoid bias in our estimates since irrigation behavior also affects groundwater stocks. When the initial saturated thickness is less than 70 feet, most of the economic impact (63%) of a decrease in the stock of groundwater occurs through an adjustment in irrigated acreage (extensive margin), while 37% occurs through reduced irrigated rental rates (intensive margin). When saturated thickness is larger, nearly all of the response is at the extensive margin. Simulation results reveal that the average annual present value of returns to land are expected to decrease in the High Plains region by $120.6 million in 2050, and by $250.5 million in 2100. The paper was submitted to the Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists and received a revise and resubmit. The results from this paper and some other studies were used to write an extension publication titled "The Value of Groundwater in the High Plains Aquifer of Western Kansas." This paper summarized research that estimates on groundwater stocks affect land values, annual economic returns to land, and spillovers into the livestock and agribusiness sectors. Kansas State University also released a radio interview on K-State Radio Network about the publication and posted a news release. Hendricks was also contacted by High Plains Public Radio for an interview about the work. We also developed econometric models to analyze the survey data that has been collected in this project. We examined how aquifer characteristics and user characteristics affect the support for allocations to reduce water use in a region and the method used to define those allocations. Our results reveal that farmers located in areas where the aquifer is more depleted support larger reductions in groundwater use. But we also find that characteristics of the users matter as much or more than the status of the aquifer in determining support. Opposition to reductions in water use are strongest among farmers who strongly agree that water rights are private property, landlords and those who irrigate a larger proportion of their farm. We also find that none of the methods of defining allocations are preferred by a majority of farmers and there is no clear evidence that aquifer characteristics or observed farmer characteristics are the key factors affecting the probability that a farmer ranks a method as the best option. This makes it difficult for groundwater managers to identify which method is more likely to be considered fair by farmers. This paper was an essay in a dissertation and is currently being revised for publication in a peer reviewed journal. A manuscript estimating how farmers adapted to a water use restriction in the Walnut Creek IGUCA was revised and resubmitted. The manuscript was conditionally accepted for publication inthe American Journal of Agricultural Economics. Work also began on estimating how different attributes of water rights are capitalized into land values. This work uses parcel-level land transactions that are matched to the water rights associated with the parcels. These findings are highly relevant to ongoing discussions about reducing allocations because all of the current local management plans ignore water right characteristics when defining new allocations. If farmers paid more for land with more secure water rights, then the allocations that ignore water rights could be deemed as unfair by these farmers. We also wrote a paper that estimates how groundwater stocks affects corn production across the High Plains Aquifer. We find that indeed corn production is smaller in areas with smaller groundwater stocks. We decompose the overall change in production into a change in total irrigated acres, a change in proportion of irrigated acres planted to corn, and a change in irrigated corn yield. This paper was an essay in a dissertation and is currently being revised for publication in a peer reviewed journal. We also wrote a paper and presented it in two different meetings that estimate the impact of irrigation efficiency upgrades on water use. We utilize new econometric methods that avoid bias in previous estimates and show how farmer adapt over time to an improvement in irrigation efficiency. Objective 3: We presented the results from our survey at the Groundwater Management District (GMD 1) annual meeting. The meeting included farmers and the board of directors. The survey results indicated clear support for implementing allocations to reduce water use in the district.
Publications
- Type:
Theses/Dissertations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2022
Citation:
Perez-Quesada, G. 2022. Essays on the economics of groudwater depletion and management in irrigated agriculture. PhD Dissertation, Kansas State University. https://krex.k-state.edu/dspace/handle/2097/42160
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2022
Citation:
Hendricks, N.P. and G.S. Sampson. 2022. The Value of Groundwater in the High Plains Aquifer of Western Kansas. Kansas State University, Department of Agricultural Economics Extension Publication. February 10, 2022. Available at: https://www.agmanager.info/ag-policy/water-policy/value-groundwater-high-plains-aquifer-western-kansas
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2021
Citation:
Perez-Quesada, G., N.P. Hendricks, C.A. Vossler, D.R. Steward, and J. Zhao. 2021. What factors affect the preferences of farmers for local irrigation water management? Selected Poster, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association meetings, Austin, TX, August 1-3, 2021.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2021
Citation:
Cameron-Harp, M.V., and N.P. Hendricks. 2021. Estimating intraseasonal irrigation behavior using daily soil moisture data in Kansas. Selected Poster, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association meetings, Austin, TX, August 1-3, 2021.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2021
Citation:
Cameron-Harp, M.V., and N.P. Hendricks. 2021. Rebound effect or dynamic adaptation? How efficient irrigation technology can reduce groundwater extraction. W4190: Management and Policy Challenges in a Water-Scarce World, Annual Meeting. Coeur dAlene, ID. October 14-15, 2021.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2022
Citation:
Cameron-Harp, M.V., and N.P. Hendricks. 2021. Dynamic effects of irrigation technology: When increasing irrigation efficiency reduces groundwater use. Association of Environmental and Resource Economists annual meeting, Miami, FL. May 31-June 3, 2022.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2021
Citation:
Hendricks, N.P. GMD 1 Survey Results. GMD 1 Annual Meeting, Scott City, KS. August 11, 2021.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Under Review
Year Published:
2022
Citation:
Perez-Quesada, G., N.P. Hendricks, and D.R. Steward. 2022. The Economic Cost of Groundwater Depletion in the High Plains Aquifer. Working paper.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Under Review
Year Published:
2022
Citation:
Earnhart, D. and N.P. Hendricks. 2022. Adapting to Water Restrictions: Intensive versus Extensive Adaption over Time Differentiated by Water Right Seniority. Working Paper.
|
Progress 06/01/20 to 05/31/21
Outputs
Target Audience:Water managers and the board of directors of a groundwater management district were engaged during the past year. We conducted a survey of support for groundwater management in a district and shared the results of the survey with the board of directors. Graduate students developed experience writing a research article, presenting at a national academic conference, and submitting an abstract to present at a national academic conference. Undergraduate students were also reached through a course that Dr. Hendricks teaches at Kansas State University with a section on collective action to manage resources with emphasis on water resources. Academics were reached through publishing journal articles. Changes/Problems:Even though GMD 4 signed an agreement to work with us on a survey, they have now asked us not to complete a survey. GMD 4 feels that a survey could create controversy in their district that they do not want. It is unfortunate to not be able to collect data from GMD 4, but we feel that it is best to honor their request. We also feel that we have sufficient survey data from GMD 3 and GMD 1 to complete our primary objectives. Therefore, we do not intend to implement a survey in GMD 4. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?A graduate student published a paper in a peer-reviewed journal, presented at the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA) annual meeting in 2020, and got a poster accepted to present at the AAEA annual meeting in 2021. Another grad student also got a poster accepted to present at the AAEA annual meeting in 2021 and prepared a paper to submit for publication. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Survey results were presented to the board of directors of GMD 1. Papers were published in peer-reviewed journals or submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journals. Results were presented at a national academic conference. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Objective 1: Insights from hydrologic models will be incorporated into the survey and other economic analysis. Objective 2: Survey results from GMD 1 will be presented at the GMD 1 annual meeting. The GMD 1 annual meeting is the primary meeting of water users in the district. We will analyze data from the surveys of GMD 3 and GMD 1 and submit one or two papers to a peer-reviewed journal. Revise and resubmit the paper on Walnut Creek allocations for publication. We will continue to revise the paper on the economic impacts of aquifer depletion and submit to a peer-reviewed journal. The paper on technology adoption and irrigation water use will be revised and submitted for publication. We will continue analysis for the paper that uses remote sensing to estimate intra-seasonal irrigation. We will start a new paper that estimates scenarios of how depletion of the High Plains Aquifer is likely to impact the production of different crops. Objective 3: After we complete the analysis of the survey data, then we expect to synthesize our results and develop implications that will be presented to key water stakeholders.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
Objective 1: The groundwater research component has been developing understanding of the role of surficial hydrologic conditions on groundwater/surface water interactions.A pertinent finding is that the High Plains Aquifer in central Nebraska has three distinct hydrologic regimes, knowledge which is helping interpret the economic conditions of the study region. The groundwater research has also been developing insight in how recharge occurs through riverbeds and to underlying aquifers. Detailed depictions are available through use of Electrical Resistance Tomography surveys in Groundwater Management District #3 in Southwestern Kansas. We learned that preferential flow paths become evident with this technology and that they play in important role in groundwater/surface water interactions. While not directly related to groundwater, research has also been investigating the movement of transient waves in surface water analysis of coastal engineering applications across features with different capacity to transmit waves. These results are presented in the following paper. These insights in the propagation of disturbance within and amongst areas with different physical properties provides insight in delineating groundwater regions with consistent hydrologic conditions. Objective 2: We conducted a new survey of irrigators in Groundwater Management District 1 (GMD 1). The survey contained choice scenarios about whether irrigators would support a GMD policy that would implement reduced allocations, referred to in Kansas as a Local Enhanced Management Area (LEMA). Irrigators were presented with several scenarios with different reductions in water use and different methods of defining the allocations. The survey also asked irrigators to rank their preference for different attributes of a LEMA. We also asked the board of directors in a different district, GMD 4, if we could conduct a survey about LEMAs in their district but they requested that we not do a survey. The survey in GMD 1 is particularly important because the board of directors is considering implementing new LEMAs in GMD 1 in the next year or two and the survey was designed to directly inform their decision-making. This means that the survey has a very clear real-world impact, but it also means that the survey responses are particularly interesting to examine because the consequentiality of the survey means that irrigators had a strong incentive to reveal their true preferences. We received 184 completed or partially completed survey responses, for a response rate of 22%. The surveys were entered twice and cleaned for entry errors. We analyzed the results by creating graphs of aggregate responses for different groups of respondents and presented results to the board of directors. The board of directors provided positive feedback that the survey results were insightful and helpful. We published a paper in Agricultural Water Management that evaluates four different groundwater management plans in Kansas. Some of the key results are as follows. We find that the management plans generally follow Elinor Ostrom's design principles, but the definition of boundaries and allocations could be improved. We also find that most irrigators support a management plan that would reduce depletion, but most of the existing plans have little impact on aquifer depletion, with the main exception being the Sheridan 6 LEMA. Voluntary management plans do not achieve sufficient participation. There is no indication that support within a management area differs by the benefits from management. We also wrote drafts of two papers and prepared them as posters for presentation at the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association annual meeting. One poster combines survey responses from GMD 1 and GMD 3 and estimates an econometric model of how characteristics of the aquifer and the users impact support for allocations to reduce water use. The other poster utilizes remote sensing on soil moisture to understand how irrigators manage soil moisture within the growing season. This is important because data on irrigation quantities are only reported annually but soil moisture data can provide new insights on intra-seasonal irrigation behavior. We submitted to a peer-reviewed journal that estimates how farmers adapted to a water use restriction in the Walnut Creek area of Kansas. Work continued on a separate paper that estimates the economic impact of aquifer depletion. We also completed a draft of another paper that estimates how government programs that incentivize the adoption of more efficient irrigation systems impact water use. Objective 3: While most of the policy recommendations will not be developed until the end of this project, we did include several important recommendations from our paper published in Agricultural Water Management. Based on our analysis, we find that efforts to manage groundwater have had more success if they are i) small-scale, ii) mandatory, and iii) include users in the development process.
Publications
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2021
Citation:
Perez-Quesada, G. and N.P. Hendricks. 2021. Lessons from Local Governance and Collective Action Efforts to Manage Irrigation Withdrawals in Kansas Agricultural Water Management 247: 106736.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2021
Citation:
Karki, R., J. M. Krienert, M. Hong, and D. R. Steward, Evaluating and Improving Groundwater Flux in the National Water Model: A Case Study in the Northern High Plains Region, USA, Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 57(2), 267-280, April 2021.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2021
Citation:
Jachens, E.R., H. Hutcheson, M. B. Thomas and D. R. Steward, Effects of groundwater-surface water exchange mechanisms in the National Water Model over the Northern High Plains Aquifer, USA, Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 57(2), 241-255, April 2021.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2020
Citation:
Koehn, W. J., S. E. Tucker-Kulesza and D. R. Steward, Characterizing Riverbed Heterogeneity across Shifts in River Discharge through Temporal Changes in Electrical Resistivity, Journal of Environmental and Engineering Geophysics, 25(4), 581-587, December 2020.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2020
Citation:
Earnhart, D. and N.P. Hendricks. Adapting to Water Restrictions: Effects of a Water Reduction Policy Differentiated by Water Right Seniority Center for Environmental Economics Montpellier, September 3, 2020.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2021
Citation:
Perez-Quesada, G., N.P. Hendricks, and D.R. Steward. 2021. Quantifying the economic costs of High Plains Aquifer Depletion. Selected Presentation, UCOWR/NIWR Annual Water Resources Conference, Virtual Conference, June 8-10, 2021.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2020
Citation:
Perez-Quesada, G., N.P. Hendricks, and D.R. Steward. 2020. Quantifying the economic costs of High Plains Aquifer Depletion. Selected Presentation, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association meetings, Virtual Meeting, August 10-11, 2020.
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Progress 06/01/19 to 05/31/20
Outputs
Target Audience:Water managers and the board of directors of groundwater management districts were engaged during the past year. We shared summary statistics of the survey results with the manager of the groundwater district where a survey was conducted last year. Water manager and farmers were engaged through a presentation at the Kansas Governor's Conference on the Future of Water. A graduate student developed experience writing a research article, presenting at a conference of stakeholders, presented at a national academic conference, and submitted another abstract to present at a national academic conference. Undergraduate students were also reached through a course that Dr. Hendricks teaches at Kansas State University with a section on collective action to manage resources with emphasis on water resources. Academics were reached through publishing journal articles. Changes/Problems:The board of directors of groundwater management districts that signed an agreement to work with us have continued to ask for delays in implementing a survey. This has created significant delays in our survey progress. We are looking for solutions that are acceptable to the board of directors yet also provide insights and help advance collective action efforts. COVID-19 also created substantial challenges for our team. In particular, the move to online instruction hurt research progress. In the coming year, we also have at least one faculty member that will be faced with a multi-week furlough due to university budget cuts. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?A graduate student prepared a paper for publication, presented a poster to water stakeholders in Kansas, and presented paper accepted at the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA) annual meeting in July 2019. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Papers were published in peer-reviewed journals and several more papers were submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journals. Results were presented as a poster at the main conference for stakeholders in agricultural water in Kansas and presented at a national academic conference. Summary statistics of the survey were shared in a report to water managers in Kansas. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Objective 1: Dr. Steward will continue to work on developing new insights into hydrologic relationships in the High Plains Aquifer region. We will also work to define boundaries within the aquifer as reasonable management areas. Objective 2: We will analyze the results from the survey of tenants and landowners about preferences for water management in GMD 3. We will also develop and estimate econometric models to estimate how different characteristics of the resource and users impact the willingness to support water management. We will continue to revise the paper on the economic impacts of aquifer depletion and prepare for submission to a peer-reviewed journal. We will work with the graduate student to develop a third essay for her dissertation on water management issues. We will deploy a survey instrument in GMD 4 and GMD 1 unless there is opposition from local stakeholders. We will explore alternative survey instruments to the one used in GMD 3. We will also consider deploying a second-round survey instrument to GMD 3 to gain further insights where needed. Objective 3: Policy recommendations are not likely to be developed until the end of the project.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
Objective 1: We developed new hydrologic models to better understand groundwater in the region. Research focused on the interaction between groundwater and surface water, which is especially important in the Nebraska portion of the aquifer and parts of Groundwater Management District 3 where we conducted our survey. Objective 2: We cleaned the data and began analyzing results from a survey of irrigators in Groundwater Management District (GMD) 3. The survey asked questions about preferences for groundwater management policies in the district and was mailed to every individual who filed an irrigation water use report or owns a water right in the district in order to survey all tenants and landowners. We also want to conduct a similar survey in GMD 4 and GMD 1. We talked with the board of directors at each of these districts and they asked us to wait another year to conduct the survey, so we did not mail a survey to GMD 4 and GMD 1. We presented a poster at a major conference of water stakeholders that examines self-governed institutions for water management in Kansas with implications for water management throughout the western U.S. This paper was also presented at the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association annual meeting and submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal. We wrote a draft of a paper that was submitted for presentation at the annual Agricultural and Applied Economics Association annual meeting. That paper estimates the economic impact of aquifer depletion across the High Plains Aquifer. We utilize historical county-level data on irrigated acres, cash rental rates, and saturated thickness. We find that regions of the aquifer that have seen greater depletion have had a decrease in irrigated acres. However, we find little impact of depletion on the rental rate of land that remains irrigated. We use our estimates to project the change in the returns to land due to projected future aquifer depletion. Another important aspect of this paper is a methodological contribution. We use hydrologic equations to close the feedback loop from changes in farmer behavior impacting resource conditions. This methodological contribution applies to many situations where socio-economic systems are connected to ecological systems. A draft of another paper was completed that estimates how farmers adapted to a water use restriction in the Walnut Creek area of Kansas. An important aspect of this research is that the stringency of the restriction differed by water-right seniority--junior rights were restricted more than senior rights and vested rights had no restriction. Our results provide new insights into the economic impact of limited water. The restriction was implemented through 5-year allocations. We find irrigation behavior that is consistent with dynamically optimal behavior among farmers within each allocation period.
Publications
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2020
Citation:
Jachens, E.R., H. Hutcheson, M. B. Thomas and D. R. Steward. 2020. "Effects of groundwater-surface water exchange mechanisms in the National Water Model over the Northern High Plains Aquifer, USA" Journal of the American Water Resources Association, in press.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.12869
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2019
Citation:
Koehn, W. J., S. E. Tucker-Kulesza, and D. R. Steward. 2019. "Conceptualizing groundwater-surface water interactions within the Ogallala Aquifer region using Electrical Resistivity Imaging" Journal of Environmental and Engineering Geophysics, 24(2): 185-199.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2020
Citation:
Steward, D. R. 2020. "Waves in Collections of Circular Shoals and Bathymetric Depressions" Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal and Ocean Engineering (ASCE), 146(4), 04020018:1-13.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2019
Citation:
Perez-Quesada, G., and N.P. Hendricks. Lessons from Local Governance and Collective Action Efforts to Manage Irrigation Withdrawals in Kansas. Selected Poster, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association meetings, Atlanta, GA, July 21-23, 2019.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2019
Citation:
Perez-Quesada, G., and N.P. Hendricks. Lessons from Local Governance and Collective Action Efforts to Manage Irrigation Withdrawals in Kansas. Poster, Governors Conference on the Future of Water in Kansas, Wichita, KS, November 7-8, 2019.
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Progress 06/01/18 to 05/31/19
Outputs
Target Audience:Water managers and the board of directors of groundwater management districts were engaged during the past year to develop a survey instrument that would successfully capture the opinions of farmers towards different water management strategies. A graduate student successfully defended a dissertation. One essay of that dissertation estimates how the amount of irrigation water applied changes in responses to changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration. Another graduate student spent the year learning about collective action efforts to manage groundwater. Undergraduate students were also reached through a course that Dr. Hendricks teaches at Kansas State University. Efforts were also made to reach agricultural economists during this period. Hendricks published a paper for publication in a leading environmental economics journal and other papers were prepared for submission. Changes/Problems:We also had discussion with GMDs 1, 4, and 5 about sending the survey out to water users in their districts but the managers or board of directors of those districts requested that we not send the survey this past year due to the sensitivity of ongoing policy discussions within their districts. Therefore, we were only able to mail the survey within GMD 3. We hope to include these other districts in future survey work. While we did not need the permission of the board of directors in a GMD to send out the survey, we thought it was important to be sensitive to the ongoing policy process within districts and not do anything that could harm their process. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?A graduate student defended a dissertation that includes one chapter of work on this project. This student was also able to present the results at the annual meeting of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA). Another graduate student learned the literature on collective action, learned about current collective efforts to manage groundwater, prepared a paper for publication, and got a paper accepted to present at the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA) annual meeting in July 2019. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?A paper was published in a leading environmental economics journals about how farmers adapted due to a water restriction imposed by a local water management institution. A paper was presented at the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA) annual meeting in August 2018. A dissertation was published. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Objective 1: A graduate student will work with Dr. Steward to develop hydrologic models to define boundaries for water management. Objective 2: We will analyze the results from the survey of tenants and landowners about preferences for water management in GMD 3. We will also develop and estimate econometric models to estimate how different characteristics of the resource and users impact the willingness to support water management. We will submit the paper that reviews support for self-governed water management institutions in Kansas for publication in a peer reviewed journal. We will submit the paper on how climate change is projected to impact water use and aquifer conditions for publication in a peer reviewed journal. We will develop econometric models to estimate how cash rent and irrigated acres are impacted by aquifer depletion. We will also use these models to simulate the potential benefits from water conservation efforts and how those benefits vary across the High Plains Aquifer. We will also follow up with managers in GMDs 1, 4, and 5 to ask about the potential of mailing surveys to farmers in their districts as well. Objective 3: Policy recommendations are not likely to be developed until the end of the project.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
Objective 2: We published a paper in the Journal of Environmental Economics and Management that estimates how farmers adapted due to a water restriction imposed by a local water management institution. We use an econometric strategy that exploits water rights between 2 to 5 miles of the policy boundary as a control group. Results indicate that farmers reduced water use by 26% due to the policy with most of the response due to reductions in water use intensity on the same crops rather than through reductions in irrigated acreage or changes in crops. The results imply that the short-run welfare impact of the policy was smaller than a policy that reduces irrigated acreage. A survey instrument was developed, mailed, and data were entered. We worked with the manager of Groundwater Management District (GMD) 3 and a research committee of the board of directors to develop the survey instrument. The survey asks questions about preferences for groundwater management policies in the district and was mailed to every individual who filed an irrigation water use report or owns a water right in the district in order to survey all tenants and landowners. The survey was mailed in February 2019, then a postcard reminder was sent, and then the survey was mailed a second time in March 2019 to try to maximize the response rate. We received 660 responses from a total mailing list of about 3,919 (17% response rate). We are pleased with the high response rate. However, there are likely several responses that were incomplete, so a final number of usable responses is yet to be determined. The survey data were entered electronically at the end of reporting period. We developed a draft of a paper that examines self-governed institutions for water management in Kansas with implications for water management throughout the western U.S. We have measures of support for local water management in three different settings and various measures of the characteristics of the aquifer, water use, and water rights of individuals. We use these data and an understanding of the water management plans to describe key lessons. This paper is important because it provides insights from actual local efforts to manage a water resource in the United States. A dissertation chapter was completed that estimates how irrigation water use responds to changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration. We use the results of how farmers change their water use as weather changes to project changes in water use by mid-century due to climate change. We then estimate how the projected changes in water use translate to changes in the rate of aquifer depletion across different parts of the High Plains Aquifer. These results are important for understanding the importance of management efforts to mitigate impacts of climate change on water resource depletion. We also started work to explore the relationship between cash rental rates, irrigated acres, and aquifer characteristics. The data have been collected and merged together and we have created some visualizations of the data and are developing econometric models.
Publications
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2018
Citation:
Drysdale, K.M. and N.P. Hendricks. 2018. Adaptation to an Irrigation Water Restriction Imposed through Local Governance. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 91: 150-165.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2018
Citation:
Obembe, O. and N.P. Hendricks. Impact of Climate Change on Groundwater Extraction for Corn Production in Kansas. Selected Presentation, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association meetings, Washington, D.C., August 5-7, 2018.
- Type:
Theses/Dissertations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2019
Citation:
Obembe, Oladipo S. 2019. "Essays on climate change interactions with agricultural land and water use." PhD diss, Kansas State University.
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Progress 06/01/17 to 05/31/18
Outputs
Target Audience:A graduate student worked to estimate how farmers change the amount of irrigation water applied in response to changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration. The student gained valuable experience learning how to use daily weather data to calculate crop evapotranspiration demand and use econometric tools to estimate the relevant model. The resulting paper was accepted for presentation at the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA) annual meeting in August 2018. This research serves as one of his dissertation chapters. Undergraduate students were also reached through a course that Dr. Hendricks teaches at Kansas State University. Dr. Hendricks invited a guest lecture by a farmer from Southwest Kansas who has lead an effort at collective action to manage groundwater in his region. Students heard the perspective of this farmer about the challenges and opportunities for collective management. Efforts were also made to reach agricultural economists during this period. Hendricks submitted a paper for publication at a leading environmental economics journal and has submitted a revised version. Changes/Problems:Dr. Steward struggled to recruit a student to work on the hydrologic modeling. Steward also accepted a position as department head at a different university. Steward is going to remain on the project and has a student identified to work on this project at his new university. This has delayed expenditures on graduate student stipend. The survey instrument asks about support for certain types of policies that restrict water use. One GMD is in the process of proposing these types of restrictions. Therefore, we must be sensitive in sending our survey instrument that we do not interfere with their process. Therefore, we may not send the survey to one of the GMDs in the coming year and may have to send the survey in a later year. We won't know until this fall as things further develop, so we must be flexible to send a survey at the right time and adapt to the rapidly evolving water policy landscape in Kansas. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Graduate students worked under the supervision of faculty to assemble and merge alternative data sources, conduct statistical analysis, and properly interpret the results. A graduate student was also able to learn the process of submitting an abstract to a conference. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?A paper has been written for the analysis of how farmers adapted due to a water restriction imposed by a local water management institution and submitted for publication at a prestigious peer-reviewed journal. A paper has also been written for the analysis of how water use responds to precipitation and evapotranspiration. That paper was accepted for a presentation at the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA) annual meeting in August 2018. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Objective 1: A graduate student will be hired to work with Dr. Steward to develop hydrologic models to define boundaries for water management. Objective 2: We will develop a survey instrument to address specific research questions. Focus groups will be conducted with farmers from 3 difference Groundwater Management Districts (GMDs) to determine any revisions needed to the survey. The survey will then be evaluated by the board of directors for the 3 GMDs. Then the survey will be distributed in January or February of 2019 and data entry will begin when surveys are completed. We will also complete any needed revisions for one paper under peer review. The other paper on the effect of weather on water use will be presented at an academic conference, revised, and submitted for publication. We will develop an econometric model to estimate the impact of aquifer conditions on rental rates and use the model to project changes in rental rates in the future due to future aquifer depletion. Objective 3: Policy recommendations are not likely to be developed until the end of the project.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
Objective 2: A key part of our project is to conduct a survey of producers about their support for different forms of restrictions imposed by a local water management institution. This year we had extensive conversations with Groundwater Management District (GMD) managers about the appropriate timing for a survey. We determined that January or February of 2019 was the ideal time to send a survey. We also started brainstorming ideas of what the survey would look like and key research questions that we wanted to address with the survey. We analyzed how farmers adapted due to a water restriction imposed by a local water management institution. We use an econometric strategy that exploits water rights between 2 to 5 miles of the policy boundary as a control group. Results indicate that farmers reduced water use by 26% due to the policy with most of the response due to reductions in water use intensity on the same crops rather than through reductions in irrigated acreage or changes in crops. The results imply that the short-run welfare impact of the policy was smaller than a policy that reduces irrigated acreage. We have estimated how irrigation water use responds to changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration. This required us to assemble well-level data on water use over roughly 20 years and merge with spatially explicit gridded weather data. Then from the daily gridded weather data we calculate the evapotranspiration (ET) demand for corn. We find that an increase in ET by 1 inch increases water use by less than one inch. This result becomes an input in understanding how changes in water use affect net benefits for farmers. We also assembled the data needed to estimate the relationship between aquifer saturated thickness and cash rental rates. Steward aggregated historical and projected saturated thickness to the county level. The aggregation was performed over only areas in the county that are irrigated according to USGS remote sensing data on irrigated area. These data will be merged with cash rental rates and irrigated area to estimate the impact of changes in saturated thickness on rents.
Publications
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