Source: UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, DAVIS submitted to NRP
INFEWS/T1 MONITORING AND MANAGING FOOD, ENERGY, AND WATER SYSTEMS UNDER STRESS: THE CALIFORNIA CRUCIBLE
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
COMPLETE
Funding Source
AFRI COMPETITIVE GRANT
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
1011408
Grant No.
2017-67003-26058
Cumulative Award Amt.
$373,000.00
Proposal No.
2016-09840
Multistate No.
(N/A)
Project Start Date
Jan 1, 2017
Project End Date
Dec 31, 2022
Grant Year
2017
Program Code
[A3151]- Interagency Climate Change
Recipient Organization
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, DAVIS
410 MRAK HALL
DAVIS,CA 95616-8671
Performing Department
Environmental Science & Policy
Non Technical Summary
California's food, energy and water systems (FEWS) are highly interdependent and increasingly stressed by long-term growth in resource demands, ever more stringent environmental policies, and a severe and persistent drought. The premise of this proposal is that California therefore represents a critical opportunity to learn how to monitor and jointly manage food, energy, water systems that are under stress. Further, the most important insights into these systems require that models resolve details such as agent behaviors, biophysical crop responses, and infrastructure operation while at the same time comprehensively capture key linkages among the systems and long-term trends (e.g., interannual or decadal) in the supply and demand of resources.Most modeling efforts are either narrowly focused on specific components or mechanisms of interaction among the three systems or else assess regional or global interactions so broadly that vital details and sensitivities are not revealed and results not actionable. The proposed work thus targets the modeling "sweet spot" where important interactions among the food, energy and water systems are comprehensively assessed at a level of spatial, temporal and mechanistic detail that can most advance our understanding and thereby inform future decisions regarding resource management in California and elsewhere.Our proposed modeling efforts integrate methods from geosciences, engineering and economics, structured in three phases:1. Estimation of economic and behavioral responses to changing water supply. We will conduct a rigorous empirical and econometric analysis of changes in water use since the onset of the California drought in 2011. This analysis will combine USDA and California state datasets and independent, remotely-sensed data on cropping patterns and soil moistureto establish necessary context for projecting future cropping patterns and hydropower generation given the historical elasticity of water demand among different water rights holders, farmer responses in the absence of strict groundwater regulation, and priorities of reservoir operation.2.Quantitatively model and assess the strength of impacts and dependencies among the existing food, energy, and water systems in California. Informed by the observed responses of food, energy and watersystems during the recent drought, we will build an integrated modeling framework representing all three systems as they now exist in order to measure their interdependence as they have been recently managed.3.Robust scenario-based model assessment of impacts and dependencies among the future food, energy, and water systems in California. We will create and probabilistically interrogate large numbers of model scenarios for each of several future storylines to test sensitivities and identify critical leverage points where policy and technology could most efficiently and effectively promote resilience and sustainability across the super-system of food, energy and water.The proposed work will dramatically advance understanding of food, energy and water systems by generalizable modeling that is expansive, detailed, and informed by careful observations of the interrelated systems during a recent period of acute stress. New FEWS indicators will also be established and quantified as part of the work.
Animal Health Component
75%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
(N/A)
Applied
75%
Developmental
25%
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
60502102090100%
Knowledge Area
605 - Natural Resource and Environmental Economics;

Subject Of Investigation
0210 - Water resources;

Field Of Science
2090 - Statistics, econometrics, and biometrics;
Goals / Objectives
Human demands for food, energy, and water are constrained by the limits of human and natural systems to supply these resources. These systems and the demands on them interact complexly. In general, environmental impacts reduce resource supplies and spur further demand; technological innovation and policy efforts seek to enhance human well-being while minimizing environmental impacts and moderating demand. The grand challenge lies in equitably balancing these countervailing forces across time and space. Here, we propose a detailed, integrated and interdisciplinary investigation of California's food, energy and water systems in the recent past and future to determine: (1) the economic and behavioral responses to climate-driven changes in water supply, (2) the magnitude of impacts and dependencies among the existing systems, and (3) the potential for those impacts and dependencies to evolve in the future due to changes in technologies, policies, trade, and climate.The proposed work directly addresses the goals of the Innovations at the Nexus of Food, Energy and Water Systems (INFEWS) program to build knowledge of the food, energy and water nexus through a systems approach that fully integrates physical processes (e.g., sophisticated modeling of power, transportation, agricultural, water treatment/delivery technologies), natural processes (e.g., hydroclimatic modeling), biological processes (e.g., agricultural crop modeling), and social and behavioral processes (e.g., econometric analysis of water-energy use), and assesses the major interactions of all of these processes in California over the recent past and in future scenarios. The integrated analyses we propose cannot be addressed by the methods and perspectives of any individual discipline, but require the coordination of a team spanning the NSF Directorates of Geosciences, Engineering, and Social, Behavioral and Economic Science. Further, the proposed work leverages large existing investments by federal and California agencies in modeling capabilities (e.g., the InVEST and HiGRID models, the UCI Advanced Power and Energy Program, and the UCI Center for Hydrometeorology & Remote Sensing).The key deliverable product of this proposal will be a detailed and extensible integrated assessment model of California's food, energy and water systems designed to assess the performance of and trade-offs among these systems now and in the future, and explicitly including sensitivity to climate change, policies, economic and population growth, technological progress and trade with other regions.
Project Methods
Agricultural Water DemandWe will be combining many disparate data sources in order estimate the response of agriculture to recent drought conditions in California. Data on the amount, seniority, and location of individual water rights are available from the electronic Water Rights Information Management System (e-WRIMS). Self-reported water usage from approximately 2009 is also available from e-WRIMS. Irrigation rights and usage will be scraped from the web and combined with information on water allocations to irrigation districts from the two major public water projects (SWP\CVP) from the California Department of Water Resources (CADWR). These will be matched with announcements of water curtailments from the CADWR to understand how individual rights holders and SWP\CVP contractors were affected by drought conditions.The major farmer responses to changing water supplies we will be estimating are fallowing, crop-switching, and groundwater pumping. Data on crop area at 30x30 meter resolution will be obtained from the USDA CropScape Data Layerand merged with county-level information on yields, production, and prices from the County Agricultural Commissioner Reports. Groundwater in California is not yet fully regulated and compete data on pumping, drilling and groundwater levels is not publically available. Instead the scale of groundwater pumping will be inferred from electricity billing data from agricultural uses. Billing records for agricultural users will be requested from the major California public utilities (all of which have procedures for sharing data with academic researchers upon negotiation of a non-disclosure agreement). Large increases in electricity use during drought conditions among junior rights holders will be an indication of groundwater pumping. Using information on the types of pumps commonly used and USGS data on groundwater levels, we will be able to estimate the volume of groundwater used in response to surface water curtailments. Finally, we will also use Green Color Vegetation Index (GCVI) derived from Landsat satellite imagery to monitor the condition of crops during the growing season and estimate the degree to which farmers were able to protect crop condition in the face of limited water supplies (GCVI largely avoids the saturation issue of NDVI:LAI relationship). This question is particularly important for standing perennial crops that are a critical component of California agriculture.Hydrologic ModelingWe propose to integrate and leverage an NSF-funded modeling framework specifically designed for hydropower energy production and future human water demand. Historical model runs will be based upon meteorological reanalysis data such as that available from the National Center for Atmospheric Researchas well as from the extensive network of hydrological monitoring infrastructure.Future simulations of daily precipitation and temperature from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)will be used to estimate future water availability. Initially, we will use scenarios of water demand produced by the California Department of Water Resources (CADWR). In this modeling framework, estimates of local surface runoff are derived from the spatially distributed PCR-GLOBWB model, a process-based conceptual hydrologic model that includes a surface water and groundwater component. This model has been used extensively in previous studies. The PCR-GLOBWB model is forced with daily CMIP5 precipitation and temperature simulations after bias adjustmentto generate inflow to the reservoirs and reservoir storage based on the projected demand (from CA DWR). A reservoir model is then nested with the hydrologic model and used to estimate the water storage. This modeling framework has been previously used for assessing the water-energy nexus.Energy-Emissions ModelA methodology to analyze the dynamic performance of the electric utility grid network and any transportation applications that it supports in the future has been previously developed. The methodology not only resolves the performance of the utility grid network, but has the spatial and temporal resolution to produce emissions fields that are used as inputs to an air quality model. The methodology uses the Market Allocation (MARKAL) Modelto characterize emissions and UCI's Holistic Grid Resource Integration and Deployment (HiGRID) modelto characterize the dynamic dispatch of the grid for various future scenarios (e.g., high renewable penetration, low water availability). Information from these projections can be used to quantify changes in emissions from all relevant regional sources and can be utilized to grow a base year emissions inventory to a targeted future date under various potential scenarios. Once changes in magnitude have been established, emissions must be spatially and temporally resolved in the targeted year because electricity infrastructure is distributed throughout the sate and emissions from fueled generation canvary drastically on the time scale of hours. Various tools are used to produce the spatially resolved emissions including Geographic Information Systems (GIS), PLEXOS, which accounts for transmission constraints and actual power plant dispatch and locations throughout the Western Electric Coordinating Council (WECC), and the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) Model.Agriculture ModelThe first module, based on empirical analysis of historical (USDA NASS) data, will estimate harvested acreage and yield changes in response to climate and management changes. This model - at an annual / seasonal time scale (depending on the crop) - will provide us with a set of predicted crop / land use maps at 30x30 meter resolution, similar to the USDA Crop Data Layer (CDL), but with predicted yields and management information as well, to drive future scenarios. We will then couple these land use response maps to the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) platformto estimate, in a spatially-explicit manner, the water production and demand of California's agricultural watersheds. This will provide us with an estimated need for groundwater at the watershed scale, which we can then feed back into the hydrology model. We will use USDA NASS data to estimate on-farm energy use for irrigation and other uses, based on dominant crop type in the 30x30 meter cell.Scenario AnalysisWe will develop a set of storylines of future food, energy and water systems that reflect varying degrees of success in meeting California's current energy-climate policies and managing the transition of these systems toward lower resource intensities. These storylines will be used to establish the types of future constraints that cannot be quickly changed because of institutional and infrastructural inertia. For each storyline, we will run the WL-HiGRID model repeatedly, varying parameters such as temperature, surface water availability, water use priorities, cropping patterns, transport and electricity demand, emissions limits,across a large range of possible values in order to build a database of ~5000 scenarios of different parameter combinations, and in each case evaluating water stress, GHG and air pollution emissions, and our FEWS indicatorsgiven the constraints of the storyline. We will use a latin hypercube sample algorithm to generate these scenarios, sampling the parameters uniformly across a range of plausible values to ensure that we represent the broadest set of possible futures. The value of this "robust decision-making" approach is its transparency and the ability to analyze the full scenario space and evaluate both uncertainty and the importance of the different parameters.

Progress 01/01/17 to 12/31/22

Outputs
Target Audience:The target audience for this work is the both the academic community working on modeling theintegrated climate-food-water-energy modeling, policymakers at state and local levels managing food, water, or climate policies interested in understanding tradeoffs and synergies, and students (graduate and undergraduate) working in this area. To reach this audience, the whole INFEWS project team (UC Davis, UC Irvine, UCSD sponsored by both NSF and USDA in this joint INFEWS project) has produced a total of 44peer-reviewed publications. PI Moore with PI Davis (UC Irvine) also co-organized a food-energy-water nexus session at the American Geophysical Union Fall meeting in 2020. Project findings were presented at both agricultural economics (ASSA, AAEA) and geo-science conferences (AGU) and have been made available on a project website:https://www.ess.uci.edu/~sustsys/INFEWS/infews.html Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?In total over the 5 year term (and 1 year no-cost extension), 14 graduate student researchers and 10 postdoctoral scholars were trained, leading to 44peer-reviewed publications, more than half of which appeared in high impact journals (5-year impact factor >10). 7 of the 10 postdocs who were supported by the project are now tenure-track faculty (at the University of California San Diego, University of Wisconsin, Ohio State University, Boise State University, Tsinghua University, Peking University, and Hong Kong University). Several of the graduate students trained by the grant are now working as environmental consultants or researchers in government labs, and one (Fofrich) received a prestigious US Presidential Postdoctoral Fellowship that should result in a faculty appointment in the coming years. Professional development training for graduate students and postdocs was provided by Agricultural Resource Economics and Geography Graduate Group at UC Davis, the School of Global Policy & Strategy at UC San Diego, and Civil & Environmental Engineering, Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, and Earth System Science at UC Irvine. The grant afforded project post-docs and graduate students opportunities to present their research at academic conferences. Jesus Gonzalez, a graduate student working at UC Davis with PI Moore was able to present his research at the American Geophysical Union and the American Association of Agricultural Economists. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Work supported by the award at UC Davis in collaboration with other members of the INFEWS team enabled the creation of an individual-level dataset of water rights, usage, and economic valuation within the California Central Valley. Combining this with hydrologic modeling results for the current and future climate, we are able to simulate agricultural outcomes with and without reforms to water markets to allow broader trading of water between users, and the value of inter-annual storage via groundwater banking. Findings from the project have been integrated into the development of course materials, including Sustainable Food and Water Systems and Sustainable Energy Systems at UC Irvine. Research findings have been collated and made publicly accessible in this website: https://www.ess.uci.edu/~sustsys/INFEWS/infews.html What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? The overarching goal of our project is to advance understanding of food, energy and water systems by detailed modeling of California's systems that is informed by observations during a recent period of acute stress. Components of the goal therefore include training of students and postdocs, communication of findings, and research that will proceed in three phases: Empirical and econometric analysis of changes in water use since the onset of the California drought in 2011, including development and assessment of new FEWS indicators. Integrated modeling of impacts and dependencies among the existing food, energy, and water systems in California. Scenario-based model assessment of impacts and dependencies among the future food, energy, and water systems in California.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2021 Citation: The adaptive benefits of agricultural water markets in California. Environmental Research Letters. 16 (4)
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2021 Citation: " de Lima, Cicero Z. and Buzan, Jonathan R. and Moore, Frances C. and Baldos, Uris Lantz C. and Huber, Matthew and Hertel, Thomas W.. (2021). Heat stress on agricultural workers exacerbates crop impacts of climate change. Environmental Research Letters. 16 (4) Article No. 044020
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2021 Citation: Benz, Susanne Amelie and Burney, Jennifer Anne. (2021). Widespread Race and Class Disparities in Surface Urban Heat Extremes Across the United States. Earth's Future. 9 (7)
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: " Fofrich, Robert and Tong, Dan and Calvin, Katherine and De Boer, Harmen Sytze and Emmerling, Johannes and Fricko, Oliver and Fujimori, Shinichiro and Luderer, Gunnar and Rogelj, Joeri and Davis, Steven J.. (2020). Early retirement of power plants in climate mitigation scenarios. Environmental Research Letters. 15 (9) Article No. 094064.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Sloat, Lindsey L. and Davis, Steven J. and Gerber, James S. and Moore, Frances C. and Ray, Deepak K. and West, Paul C. and Mueller, Nathaniel D.. (2020). Climate adaptation by crop migration. Nature Communications. 11 (1)
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2021 Citation: Lobell, David B and Burney, Jennifer A. (2021). Cleaner air has contributed one-fifth of US maize and soybean yield gains since 1999. Environmental Research Letters. 16 (7) 074049.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2021 Citation: DeAngelo, Julianne and Azevedo, In�s and Bistline, John and Clarke, Leon and Luderer, Gunnar and Byers, Edward and Davis, Steven J.. (2021). Energy systems in scenarios at net-zero CO2 emissions. Nature Communications. 12 (1)
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2021 Citation: Hong, Chaopeng and Burney, Jennifer A. and Pongratz, Julia and Nabel, Julia E. and Mueller, Nathaniel D. and Jackson, Robert B. and Davis, Steven J.. (2021). Global and regional drivers of land-use emissions in 19612017. Nature. 589 (7843) 554 to 561.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2021 Citation: Benz, Susanne A and Davis, Steven J and Burney, Jennifer A. (2021). Drivers and projections of global surface temperature anomalies at the local scale. Environmental Research Letters. 16 (6)
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Baldos, Uris L. C. and Hertel, Thomas W. and Moore, Frances C.. (2019). Understanding the Spatial Distribution of Welfare Impacts of Global Warming on Agriculture and Its Drivers. American Journal of Agricultural Economics. 101 (5) p. 1455-1472.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Levy, Morgan C. and Neely, Wesley R. and Borsa, Adrian A. and Burney, Jennifer A.. (2020). Fine-scale spatiotemporal variation in subsidence across Californias San Joaquin Valley explained by groundwater demand. Environmental Research Letters. 15 (10) Article No. 104083.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2021 Citation: Wang, Daoping and Guan, Dabo and Zhu, Shupeng and Kinnon, Michael Mac and Geng, Guannan and Zhang, Qiang and Zheng, Heran and Lei, Tianyang and Shao, Shuai and Gong, Peng and Davis, Steven J.. (2021). Economic footprint of California wildfires in 2018. Nature Sustainability. 4 (3) 252 to 260.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2021 Citation: Lamb, William F and Wiedmann, Thomas and Pongratz, Julia and Andrew, Robbie and Crippa, Monica and Olivier, Jos G and Wiedenhofer, Dominik and Mattioli, Giulio and Khourdajie, Alaa Al and House, Jo and Pachauri, Shonali and Figueroa, Maria and Saheb, Yamina and Slade, Raphael and Hubacek, Klaus and Sun, Laixiang and Ribeiro, Suzana Kahn and Khennas, Smail and de la Rue du Can, Stephane and Chapungu, Lazarus and Davis, Steven J and Bashmakov, Igor and Dai, Hancheng and Dhakal, Shobhakar and Tan, Xianchun and Geng, Yong and Gu, Baihe and Minx, Jan. (2021). A review of trends and drivers of greenhouse gas emissions by sector from 1990 to 2018. Environmental Research Letters. 16 (7) 073005.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Arellano?Gonzalez, Jesus and Moore, Frances C.. (2020). Intertemporal Arbitrage of Water and Long?Term Agricultural Investments: Drought, Groundwater Banking, and Perennial Cropping Decisions in California. American Journal of Agricultural Economics. 102 (5) 1368 to 1382.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2021 Citation: Tian, Shan and He, Haoyang and Kendall, Alissa and Davis, Steven J. and Ogunseitan, Oladele A. and Schoenung, Julie M. and Samuelsen, Scott and Tarroja, Brian. (2021). Environmental benefit-detriment thresholds for flow battery energy storage systems: A case study in California. Applied Energy. 300 (C) 117354
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2021 Citation: Tong, Dan and Farnham, David J. and Duan, Lei and Zhang, Qiang and Lewis, Nathan S. and Caldeira, Ken and Davis, Steven J.. (2021). Geophysical constraints on the reliability of solar and wind power worldwide. Nature Communications. 12 (1) .
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2021 Citation: Fennell, Paul S. and Davis, Steven J. and Mohammed, Aseel. (2021). Decarbonizing cement production. Joule. 5 (6) 1305 to 1311.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Shearer, Christine and Tong, Dan and Fofrich, Robert and Davis, Steven J.. (2020). Committed Emissions of the U.S. Power Sector, 20002018. AGU Advances. 1 (3) .
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: " Tarroja, Brian and Peer, Rebecca A.M. and Sanders, Kelly T. and Grubert, Emily. (2020). How do non-carbon priorities affect zero-carbon electricity systems? A case study of freshwater consumption and cost for Senate Bill 100 compliance in California. Applied Energy. 265 (C) 114824.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Hong, Chaopeng and Zhang, Qiang and Zhang, Yang and Davis, Steven J. and Zhang, Xin and Tong, Dan and Guan, Dabo and Liu, Zhu and He, Kebin. (2020). Weakening aerosol direct radiative effects mitigate climate penalty on Chinese air quality. Nature Climate Change. 10 (9) 845 to 850.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Sadegh, Mojtaba and AghaKouchak, Amir and Mallakpour, Iman and Huning, Laurie S. and Mazdiyasni, Omid and Niknejad, Mohsen and Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi and Moore, Frances C. and Brouwer, Jack and Farid, Arvin and Alizadeh, Mohammad Reza and Martinez, Alexandre and Mueller, Nathaniel D. and Davis, Steven J.. (2020). Data and analysis toolbox for modeling the nexus of food, energy, and water. Sustainable Cities and Society. 61 (C) 102281.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Hong, Chaopeng and Mueller, Nathaniel D. and Burney, Jennifer A. and Zhang, Yang and AghaKouchak, Amir and Moore, Frances C. and Qin, Yue and Tong, Dan and Davis, Steven J.. (2020). Impacts of ozone and climate change on yields of perennial crops in California. Nature Food. 1 (3) 166 to 172.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Victor, David G. and Abdulla, Ahmed and Auston, David and Brase, Wendell and Brouwer, Jack and Brown, Karl and Davis, Steven J. and Kappel, Carrie V. and Meier, Alan and Modera, Mark and Zarin Pass, Rebecca and Phillips, David and Sager, Jordan and Weil, David. (2018). Turning Paris into reality at the University of California. Nature Climate Change. 8 (3) 183 to 185.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Xie, Wei and Xiong, Wei and Pan, Jie and Ali, Tariq and Cui, Qi and Guan, Dabo and Meng, Jing and Mueller, Nathaniel D. and Lin, Erda and Davis, Steven J.. (2018). Decreases in global beer supply due to extreme drought and heat. Nature Plants. 4 (11) 964 to 973.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Tong, Dan and Zhang, Qiang and Zheng, Yixuan and Caldeira, Ken and Shearer, Christine and Hong, Chaopeng and Qin, Yue and Davis, Steven J.. (2019). Committed emissions from existing energy infrastructure jeopardize 1.5?�C climate target. Nature. 572 (7769) 373 to 377.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Hong, Chaopeng and Zhang, Qiang and Zhang, Yang and Davis, Steven J. and Tong, Dan and Zheng, Yixuan and Liu, Zhu and Guan, Dabo and He, Kebin and Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim. (2019). Impacts of climate change on future air quality and human health in China. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 201812881.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Saeedmanesh, Alireza and Colombo, Paolo and McLarty, Dustin and Brouwer, Jack. (2019). Dynamic Behavior of a Solid Oxide Steam Electrolyzer System Using Transient Photovoltaic Generated Power for Renewable Hydrogen Production. Journal of Electrochemical Energy Conversion and Storage. 16 (4) 041008.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Qin, Yue and Abatzoglou, John T. and Siebert, Stefan and Huning, Laurie S. and AghaKouchak, Amir and Mankin, Justin S. and Hong, Chaopeng and Tong, Dan and Davis, Steven J. and Mueller, Nathaniel D.. (2020). Agricultural risks from changing snowmelt. Nature Climate Change. 10 (5) 459 to 465.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Saeedmanesh, Alireza and Colombo, Paolo and Brouwer, Jack. (2020). Integration of Solid Oxide Steam Electrolyzer System into the UCI Microgrid to Support High Renewable Use. ECS Transactions. 96 (1) 71 to 79.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Burney, Jennifer A.. (2020). The downstream air pollution impacts of the transition from coal to natural gas in the United States. Nature Sustainability. 3 (2) 152 to 160.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Saeedmanesh, Alireza and Mac Kinnon, Michael A. and Brouwer, Jack. (2018). Hydrogen is essential for sustainability. Current Opinion in Electrochemistry. 12 (C) 166 to 181.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Levy, Morgan C and Collender, Philip A and Carlton, Elizabeth J and Chang, Howard H and Strickland, Matthew J and Eisenberg, Joseph N and Remais, Justin V. (2019). Spatiotemporal Error in Rainfall Data: Consequences for Epidemiologic Analysis of Waterborne Diseases. American Journal of Epidemiology. 188 (5) 950 to 959.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Davis, Steven J. and Lewis, Nathan S. and Shaner, Matthew and Aggarwal, Sonia and Arent, Doug and Azevedo, In�s L. and Benson, Sally M. and Bradley, Thomas and Brouwer, Jack and Chiang, Yet-Ming and Clack, Christopher T. and Cohen, Armond and Doig, Stephen and Edmonds, Jae and Fennell, Paul and Field, Christopher B. and Hannegan, Bryan and Hodge, Bri-Mathias and Hoffert, Martin I. and Ingersoll, Eric and Jaramillo, Paulina and Lackner, Klaus S. and Mach, Katharine J. and Mastrandrea, Michael and Ogden, Joan and Peterson, Per F. and Sanchez, Daniel L. and Sperling, Daniel and Stagner, Joseph and Trancik, Jessika E. and Yang, Chi-Jen and Caldeira, Ken. (2018). Net-zero emissions energy systems. Science. 360 (6396)
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Qin, Yue and Mueller, Nathaniel D. and Siebert, Stefan and Jackson, Robert B. and AghaKouchak, Amir and Zimmerman, Julie B. and Tong, Dan and Hong, Chaopeng and Davis, Steven J.. (2019). Flexibility and intensity of global water use. Nature Sustainability. 2 (6) 515 to 523.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Ebrahimi, Siavash and Mac Kinnon, Michael and Brouwer, Jack. (2018). California end-use electrification impacts on carbon neutrality and clean air. Applied Energy. 213 (C) 435 to 449.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: M�ller, Marc F. and Levy, Morgan C.. (2019). Complementary Vantage Points: Integrating Hydrology and Economics for Sociohydrologic Knowledge Generation. Water Resources Research. 55 (4) 2549 to 2571.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Moore, Frances C. and Baldos, Uris and Hertel, Thomas and Diaz, Delavane. (2017). New science of climate change impacts on agriculture implies higher social cost of carbon. Nature Communications. 8 (1) .
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Mac Kinnon, Michael A. and Brouwer, Jacob and Samuelsen, Scott. (2018). The role of natural gas and its infrastructure in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, improving regional air quality, and renewable resource integration. Progress in Energy and Combustion Science. 64 (C) 62 to 92.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Matios, Edward and Burney, Jennifer. (2017). Ecosystem Services Mapping for Sustainable Agricultural Water Management in Californias Central Valley. Environmental Science & Technology. 51 (5) 2593 to 2601.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Mazdiyasni, Omid and AghaKouchak, Amir and Davis, Steven J. and Madadgar, Shahrbanou and Mehran, Ali and Ragno, Elisa and Sadegh, Mojtaba and Sengupta, Ashmita and Ghosh, Subimal and Dhanya, C. T. and Niknejad, Mohsen. (2017). Increasing probability of mortality during Indian heat waves. Science Advances. 3 (6) e1700066.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Madadgar, Shahrbanou and AghaKouchak, Amir and Farahmand, Alireza and Davis, Steven J.. (2017). Probabilistic estimates of drought impacts on agricultural production: Drought Impacts on Agriculture. Geophysical Research Letters.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Moore, Frances C and Baldos, Uris Lantz and Hertel, Thomas. (2017). Economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: a comparison of process-based and statistical yield models. Environmental Research Letters. 12 (6) 065008.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Shaner, Matthew R. and Davis, Steven J. and Lewis, Nathan S. and Caldeira, Ken. (2018). Geophysical constraints on the reliability of solar and wind power in the United States. Energy & Environmental Science. 11 (4) 914 to 925.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Diaz, Delavane and Moore, Frances. (2017). Quantifying the economic risks of climate change. Nature Climate Change. 7 (11) 774 to 782.


Progress 01/01/21 to 12/31/21

Outputs
Target Audience:Academic audiences were reached through multiple scientific presentations and publications Changes/Problems:The COVID 19 pandemic resulted in some disruptions to expected activities over the reporting period. In particular, due to challenges in recruiting students, no graduate students were funded on in the 2020-2021 academic year. This fall I was able to recruit a graduate student, Indu Roychowdhuri in the UC Davis Geography Graduate group who is working on grant activies. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Training for graduate students and postdocs in Agricultural Resource Economics and Geography at UC Davis, the School of Global Policy & Strategy at UC San Diego, and Civil & Environmental Engineering, Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, and Earth System Science at UC Irvine. PI Davis has helped to develop two new undergraduate courses called "Sustainable Food and Water Systems" and "Sustainable Energy Systems" that together comprise part of the core curriculum of a new Bachelor of Arts degree in Environmental Science and Policy. The food-energy-water nexus is central to lectures and class projects in both of the courses, one of which will be taught by Davis annually going forward. This course development was an outreach activity discussed in our original INFEWS proposal. Most of the PIs, their postdocs, and students attended and presented results (virtually) at the AGU Fall Meeting in December 2020, including: Co-PI Burney and her postdocs Benz; Co-PI AghaKouchak, his graduate student Martinez; PI Davis, his postdoc Hong and graduate student Fofrich. Postdoc Benz completed her appointment and began a prestigious Banting fellowship at the University of Michigan. Postdoc Tong accepted a tenure-track faculty offer at Tsinghua University in Beijing, China. Postdoc Hong accepted a tenure-track faculty offer at Tsinghua University in Shenzhen, China. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Since the last project report, 15 peer-reviewed publications have acknowledged the grant, including 4 in high impact journals (allNature-titles), bringing the total to 45 publications in five years. Several of these publications have garnered substantial attention in the media and are already being cited by other researchers in the field. Another 6 papers are now in review and several more are due to be submitted soon. PI Davis has agreed to lead the "Mitigation" chapter of the forthcoming Fifth National Climate Assessment that draws upon lessons learned in the course of our INFEWS project. PI Davis is also a Contributing Author to the "Net-zero emissions energy systems" section of Chapter 6 in the forthcoming IPCC AR6, again reflecting on (and citing) work that was supported by the INFEWS project. We have published a public website dedicated to our INFEWS project and its activities:https://www.ess.uci.edu/~sustsys/INFEWS/infews.html PI Davis workes with several undergraduate researchers at UC Irvine to create a web-based data portal that will allow users to explore, plot, and download the results of our analyses:https://sustsys.ess.uci.edu/CALUE/ What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?In the final reporting period (extended to 6 years by a no-cost extension), we will complete the analyses and papers underway (including several related the scenario-based model assessment of impacts and dependencies among the future food, energy, and water systems in California, and others related to the FEW impacts of heavy duty and industrial applications such as locomotives, ships, aircraft, steel, cement and other industries). We are also considering the legacy of our project, which has generated a tremendous quantity of high-quality research and trained numerous students and postdocs, and opportunities to carry this momentum forward into one or more new proposals.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Research in all three phases has been completed, with numerous analyses led by graduate students and postdocs supervised by one or more of the PIs. We meet biweekly via Zoom. An in-person meeting of all PIs, postdocs and students that was scheduled for April 2020 was postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. More specifically: PI Davis: Davis was a coauthor on a paper published inNature Communicationthat analyzed how historical changes in the global distribution of staple crops may have alleviated the crops average exposure to temperatures. The results are reported in a manuscript now in review atNature Communications. Co?PI Moore was also a co-author. Postdoc Hong, supervised by Davis, led a paper published inNaturethat analyzed how temperatures and air pollution (specifically ozone) have affected yields of perennial crops in CA over the past 30 years (a key linkage between energy and food which will facilitate integrated modeling of Phases 2 and 3). Co-PIs Burney, Aghakouchak, and Moore were co-authors. Former Postdoc Qin, supervised by Davis, led a paper published inNature Climate Changethat assesses the impacts of changing snowmelt on irrigated agriculture worldwide. Co-PIs AghaKouchak and Postdoc Hong were also co-authors. Postdoc Hong, supervised by Davis, led a paper published inNature Climate Changethat analyzed how changes in aerosol loading over China will affect future air pollution and the human health impacts thereof. Graduate student Fofrich, supervised by Davis, led a paper published in Environmental Research Letters that analyzes power plant retirements across a range of climate change scenarios, related to Phase 3 of the project. Postdoc Hong, supervised by Davis, led a paper published inNaturethat presented detailed accounting of the drivers of global and regional land use emissions between 1961-2017 related to specific agricultural products and processes. The results are reported in a manuscript that is now in a third round of review atNature. Co-PI Burney is a co-author. Graduate student Fofrich, supervised by Davis, completed and submitted an analysis of how locations of major crops may shift due to climate change, including issues of food security and food sovereignty that may arise. Graduate student DeAngelo, supervised by Davis, led a paper published inNature Communicationsanalyzing the make-up and trade-offs of net-zero emissions energy systems in climate mitigation scenarios generated by global Integrated Assessment Models. Graduate student DeAngelo, supervised by Davis, is continuing work on a techno-economic analysis of the potential for macroalgal cultivations in oceans to provide food and energy without requiring freshwater inputs. Co-PI Moore: Graduate student Arellano-Gonzalez, supervised by Co-PI Moore, led a paper published in theAmerican Journal of Agricultural Economicsthat analyzes a field-level dataset of cropping decisions in Kern County, California to estimate the role of security of water access, including through the expansion of water banking, affects farmer decisions to switch into high-value perennials. Graduate student Arellano-Gonzalez, supervised by Moore, published a paper that compares water supply under present and future climate and valuation of losses from irrigation water curtailment under present and alternative market structures. Co-PIs Davis, Burney and AghaKouchak and Postdocs Qin, Levy were co-authors. Co-PI Moore co-authored a paper published inEnvironmental Research Letters(ERL)with Professor Huber and Cicero de Lima (Purdue University), and Jonathan Buzan (ETH Zurich), that analyzed the effects of heat stress on agricultural labor to quantify the combined productivity effects of agriculture on land (i.e. yield) and labor. Co-PI Moore has also led an analysis seeking to quantify the fingerprint of anthropogenic warming on global agriculture that is now in review atPNAS. Co-PI Burney: Co-PI Burney co-authored a paper published inERLwith Prof. Lobell (Stanford University) on the agricultural benefits of air quality improvements in the U.S. Postdoc Levy led a paper published inERLthat examined the geophysical record of subsidence and uplift in California's Central Valley. This work is now being expanded to address specific issues associated with the implementation of California's Sustainable Groundwater Management Act, including how to think about cross-boundary groundwater flows, variations in recharge, and the misalignment of management boundaries with physical boundaries. Postdoc Benz led two papers, one inERLand the other inEarth's Future, that reported results of her work on remote sensing of surface temperature anomalies. TheERLpaper reported the results of a detailed global analysis and energy balance model (dataset is publicly-available via Google Earth Engine), and the second uses the dataset to evaluate systematic inequities in heat exposure.PI Davis was a co-author on theERLpaper. Former postdoc Zhu completed work under review atHydrology and Earth System Scienceshis work on the role that irrigation plays in mitigating weather-related crop impacts through two pathways -- heat and water stress. Co-PI Brouwer: Project scientist Tarroja co-authored a paper published inApplied Energythat evaluated how inclusion of life-cycle impacts may undermine environmental benefits of deploying flow batteries to support reliable renewable power in California. Working with a set of detailed California energy scenarios developed in year 5 of the project by Graduate student Saeedmanesh (supervised by Brouwer and Senior Personnel Samuelsen and Dabdub), a team led by Co-PI Brouwer and PI Davis have begun analyzing the prospects and FEW system effects ofconverting all long-distance freight systems in California to hydrogen (including long-distance trucking, locomotives, and ships). Also under the supervision of Co-PI Brouwer and Senior Personnel Samuelsen and Dabdub, project scientists Mackinnon and Tarroja have been working to evaluatepatterns and inequities in regional air quality under different climate mitigation scenarios, and are preparing a manuscript with the results for submission now. Project scientistMackinnon and PI Davis were co-authors on a manuscript published inNature Sustainabilitythat estimates the economic impacts of California wildfires during the 2018 fire season, including human health impacts of related air pollution. PI AghaKouchak: Graduatestudent Martinez, supervised by Co-PI AghaKouchak, is completingan analysis of the global nutritional impacts of historical droughts using a network model of international trade. PI Davis is also involved.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2021 Citation: Cicero Z. de Lima, Jonathan R. Buzan, Frances C. Moore, Uris L. C. Baldos, Matthew Huber, and Thomas Hertel, 2021, Heat Stress on Agricultural Workers Exacerbates Crop Impacts of Climate Change, Environmental Research Letters, 16 (4), 044020.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2021 Citation: Jesus Gonzalez*, Amir AghaKouchak, Morgan C. Levy, Yue Qin, Jennifer Burney, Steven J. Davis, and Frances C. Moore, 2021, Adaptive Benefits of Agricultural Water Markets in California, Environmental Research Letters, 16, 044036.


Progress 01/01/20 to 12/31/20

Outputs
Target Audience:Five peer-reviewed journal articles were published in the reporting period with a sixth paper currently under review. In addition, PI Moore together with Lead-PI Davis organized a session at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting on climate change impacts and adaptation in food systems. PI Moore presented work from this grant at an American Agricultural Economics Association session at the 2020 Annual Meeting of the Allied Social Sciences Association, at a virtual Zoom seminar on Agricultural and Resource Economics. Changes/Problems:Graduate student Gonzalez graduated in June 2020. Due to disruptions from the pandemic, I was not able to recruit a replacement student to work on this project. I am in the process of recruiting a student for fall 2021 and have received a one year no-cost extension on the grant. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?The project provided training for graduate student Jesus Gonzalez. He led two papers, now published (in Environmental Research Letters and American Journal of Agricultural Economics) as part of this grant. He also presented this work at the American Geophysical Union and at the American Agricultural Economics Association meetings (in previous reporting periods). This period, Jesus successfully completed his PhD and graduated from Davis. He is now employed as a researcher working on agricultural and climate issues at the Federal Bank of Mexico. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?PI Moore together with Lead-PI Davis organized a session at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting on climate change impacts and adaptation in food systems, entitled "Agricultural adaptation and global food security: trends, needs, barriers and opportunities". PI Moore presented work from this grant at an American Agricultural Economics Association session at the 2020 Annual Meeting of the Allied Social Sciences Association, at a virtual Zoom seminar on Agricultural and Resource Economics. This is in addition to the 5 peer-reviewed publications described above. A public-facing website has been developed to provide an easily-accessible entry point for products from this research: www.ess.uci.edu/~sustsys/INFEWS/infews.html What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?In the next reporting period, we anticipate that manuscripts currently in review or in preparation will be published. We are beginning work on a global analysis of the benefits of irrigation as a adaptation strategy for extreme heat, and physical quantity constraints that might limit that adaptation. We are also moving into scenario-based model assessments of impacts and dependencies among the future food, energy, and water systems in California.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Graduate student Gonzalez, supervised by co-PI Moore, led a paper published in the American Journal of Agricultural Economics analyzing a field-level dataset of cropping decisions in Kern County, California to estimate how the role of security of water access, including through the expansion of water banking, affects farmer decisions to switch into high-value perennials. This work was presented at the 2020 ASSA meeting and is published in American Journal of Agricultural Economics. Graduate student Gonzalez, supervised by PI Moore completed work to create empirical water demand curves for California irrigation from reported water use by rights holders. Comparison with water supply under present and future climate allows valuation of losses from irrigation water curtailment under present and alternate market structures. The results are accepted at Environmental Research Letters. Co-PIs Burney, Davis, and AghaKouchak and Posdocs Qin and Levy are all involved in the paper. In collaboration with Professors Huber and Hertel at Purdue University and post-docs Jonathan Buzan and Cicero de Lima, PI Moore also contributed to estimates of climate change effects of heat stress on agricultural labor productivity and associated welfare changes using the GTAP CGE model. The manuscript is accepted at Environmental Research Letters. In collaboration with lead-PI Davis and others, PI Moore contributed to an analysis of how shifts in cropping area have partly protected growing areas from rising temperatures. The results are published in Nature Communications. In addition, with lead-PI Davis, PIs Burney, AghaKouchak and Moore were involved in a project led by post-doc Hong estimating the effects of warming and ozone concentration on California's perennial crops. This was published in Nature Food.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2021 Citation: Cicero Z. de Lima, Jonathan R. Buzan, Frances C. Moore, Uris L. C. Baldos, Matthew Huber, and Thomas Hertel, in press, Heat Stress on Agricultural Workers Exacerbates Crop Impacts of Climate Change, Environmental Research Letters
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2021 Citation: Jesus Gonzalez*, Amir AghaKouchak, Morgan C. Levy, Yue Qin, Jennifer Burney, Steven J. Davis, and Frances C. Moore, in press, Adaptive Benefits of Agricultural Water Markets in California, Environmental Research Letters
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2021 Citation: Frances C. Moore, resubmitted, The Emergent Influence of Anthropogenic Warming on Global Crop Yields, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Jesus Gonzalez* and Frances C. Moore, 2020, Intertemporal Arbitrage of Water and Long-Term Agricultural Investments: Drought, Groundwater Banking, and Perennial Cropping Decisions in California, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, doi:10.1111/ajae.12123
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Chaopeng Hong, Nathan Mueller, Jennifer Burney, Yang Zhang, Amir AghaKouchak, Frances C. Moore, Yue Qin, Dan Tong, and Steven J. Davis, 2020, Impacts of Ozone and Climate Change on California Perennial Crops, Nature Food, 1�166-172
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Lindsey L. Sloat, Steven J. Davis, James Gerber, Frances C. Moore, Deepak Ray, Paul C. West, and Nathaniel D. Mueller, 2020, Climate Adaptation by Crop Migration, Nature Communications, 11, 1243, doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-15076-4


Progress 01/01/19 to 12/31/19

Outputs
Target Audience:Target audiences reached during this reporting period are researcher working on the food-energy-water (FEW) nexus, reached through presentations at the American Agricultural Economics Association annaual meeting, the Association of Environmental and Resource Economics annual meeting as well as the publication of findings in the American Journal of Agricultural Economics and Nature Communications. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Training for graduate students and postdocs in Agricultural Resource Economics at UC Davis, the School of Global Policy & Strategy at UC San Diego, and Civil & Environmental Engineering, Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, and Earth System Science at UC Irvine. PI Davis has helped to develop two new undergraduate courses called "Sustainable Food and Water Systems" and "Sustainable Energy Systems" that together comprise part of the core curriculum of a new Bachelor of Arts degree in Environmental Science and Policy. The food-energy-water nexus is central to lectures and class projects in both of the courses, one of which will be taught by Davis annually going forward. This course development was an outreach activity discussed in our original INFEWS proposal. Most of the PIs, their postdocs, and students attended and presented results at the AGU Fall Meeting in December 2018, including: Co-PI Burney and her postdocs Levy, Zhu, and Benz; Co-PI Moore and her graduate student Gonzales; Co-PI AghaKouchak, his postdoc Mazdiyasni, and his graduate student Martinez; PI Davis, his postdocs Qin and Hong, and graduate student Fofrich. Attendees met at the meeting and shared a lunch. Graduate student Gonzalez also presented work from the project at the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association summer meeting. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Since the last project report, 10 peer-reviewed publications have acknowledged the grant, including 1 in Nature, 3 in other Nature titles, and 1 in PNAS, bringing the total to 22 publications in three years. Several of these publications have garnered substantial attention in the media and are already being cited by other researchers in the field. Another 7 papers are now in review. Co-PI Burney visited the San Diego Chamber of Commerce Energy and Water committee meeting in the fall of 2018 where she was part of a panel discussing the food-energy-water nexus. Co-PI Burney and PI Davis co-convened a successful (i.e. well-attended) session at the American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting in December 2018: https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm18/preliminaryview.cgi/Session53031.html Postdoc Qin (Davis) will co-convene a session at the American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting this coming December: https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm19/webprogrampreliminary/Session80748.html PI Davis presented the results of Postdoc Qin's research at a workshop on energy-water linkages at Cambridge University in October 2018. PI Davis participated in a workshop held at the offices of the Environmental Defense Fund in San Francisco regarding the implemention of the State of California's new SB100 legislation (which sets a goal of zero-emissions electricity by 2045). Members of key consultancies, modeling groups, NGOs, and government agencies were also in attendance. PI Davis is working with the Aquarium of the Pacific in Long Beach, California to create three videos that will be used as part of classroom materials to support their new "Pacific Visions" exhibit (whose them is the future of food, energy, and water). The videos will be filmed later in August 2019 and will ultimately be distributed by PBS Learning Media. PI Burney is working with National Geographic Society to disseminate results and present FEWS ideas in environmental science textbooks for elementary and middle school students; she is also working with the society on content related to water and food. We have published a public website dedicated to our INFEWS project and its activities: https://www.ess.uci.edu/~sustsys/INFEWS/infews.html PI Davis is also mentoring two undergraduate researchers (Novitia and Dong) from the UC Irvine computer science department to create a web-based data portal that will allow users to explore, plot, and download the results of our analyses. PI Moore presented results at the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists summer conference. Graduate student Gonzalez presented results at the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association summer conference and the AGU Fall Meeting, in the session convened by PIs Davis and Burney. Co-PI AghaKouchak presented results at the 2018 American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting and the 2019 International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics General Assembly. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?In the next reporting period, we anticipate that many if not all of the work now in review will be published in the peer-reviewed literature and team members will present these results at national meetings (see Major Activities above). We are also well-positioned to begin on Phase 3 (scenario-based model assessment of impacts and dependencies among the future food, energy, and water systems in California), building on a number of the already published analyses and datasets. We expect that one or more manuscripts projecting future FEW interactions in California will be completed in the coming year. We will begin to analyze and determine the FEW impacts of heavy duty and industrial applications such as locomotives, ships, aircraft, steel, cement and other industries that need high quality heat or chemicals in the context of a zero emissions world to determine how zero emissions can be technically achieved and how such achievements will impact food, energy, and water systems

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Phase 1 research is continuing and the groundwork necessary for Phase 2 is in process, with analyses led by graduate students and postdocs supervised by one or more of the PIs. PI Davis: Davis was a coauthor on a paper published in Nature Plants showing the future impacts of extreme heat and drought under climate change on barley crops and global beer supply. The paper received substantial international attention in the media. Davis was a coauthor on a paper published in Nature showing future CO2 emissions from existing and proposed fossil energy infrastructure. This work was facilitated by the power plant-level data developed by Postdoc Qin during her study on the flexibility and intensity of water use. The paper received substantial international attention in the media. Postdocs Qin and Hong were also co-authors. Postdoc Qin, supervised by Davis, led a paper published in Nature Sustainability that assessed the flexibility and intensity of different water uses worldwide, including agriculture, cooling of power plants, and evaporation from reservoirs. As an indication of its general interest to the research community, the study was highlighted in the news section of Nature: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01759-6. Co-PI AghaKouchak and Postdoc Hong were also co-authors. Postdoc Hong, supervised by Davis, led an analysis of how climate change may affect future weather patterns and thus exposure to air pollution in China. The results have been published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). Postdoc Hong has also completed a statistical analysis using USDA data on how temperatures and air pollution (specifically ozone) have affected yields of perennial crops in CA over the past 30 years (a key linkage between energy and food which will facilitate integrated modeling of Phases 2 and 3). The results are reported in a manuscript in Nature Food; Co-PIs Burney, Aghakouchak, and Moore are also co-authors. PI Davis is collaborating with Prof. Nathan Mueller at UC Irvine and his postdoctoral scholar Lindsey Sloat on a global analysis of agricultural adaptation by crop migration. The results are reported in a manuscript now in review at Nature Communications; Co-PI Moore is also involved. PI Moore: Graduate student Gonzalez, supervised by Moore, completed work to create empirical water demand curves for California irrigation from reported water use by rights holders. Comparison with water supply under present and future climate and valuation of losses from irrigation water curtailment under present and alternative market structures. The results are reported in a manuscript now in submission; Co-PIs Davis, Burney and AghaKouchak and Postocs Qin, Levy are all involved. Graduate student Gonzalez and PI Moore are also currently using analyzing a field-level dataset of cropping decisions in Kern County to estimate the role of security of water access, including through the expansion of water banking, affects farmer decisions to switch into high-value perennials. This was presentatd at the Applied Social Sciences Association meeting in January 2020 and is currently in revision for the American Journal of Agricultural Economics. PI Moore worked with Professors Hertel and Baldos at Purdue University to extend previous analysis of the magnitude and global distribution of the productivity and economic welfare effects of agriculture by combining a meta-analysis of the yield effects of temperature with the GTAP CGE model. The results were published in a paper co-authored by Moore in the American Journal of Agricultural Economics. Working with Professor Huber and Cicero Zima (Purdue University), and Jonathan Buzan (ETH Zurich), PI Moore is also analyzing the effects of heat stress on agricultural labor to quantify the combined productivity effects of agriculture on land (i.e. yield) and labor. The results are reported in a manuscript now in revision for Nature Climate Change. PI Burney: Graduate student Tutterow, supervised by Burney, is using the InVEST model to produce spatially-explicitestimates of water yield andcrop water demand over the entire state of California 2006-2016. This work was underway during the last period, but required considerable model development in order to cover the entire state of California; the computations are now complete. The computed yields will now be used as inputs to energy and food models. Co-PIs Moore, Davis and AghaKouchak anticipate using the results of this analysis. Postdoc Levy, supervised by Burney, has completed an analysis using remotely sensing subsidence data from interferometric synthetic aperature radar and cGPS to estimate groundwater withdrawals in California, further linking those withdrawals to spatially-explicit datasets of crop area and production. The results are reported in a manuscript now in submission. Postdoc Levy also co-authored two other papers, (1) assessing error in rainfall data and its implications for epidemiologic analyses of waterborne disease, and (2) a review paper on best practices for sociohydrology, or the integration of socio-economic and hydrologic data and methods. Postdoc Zhu, supervised by Burney, is working on the various channels of crop production response to climate change. Most research has focused on yield responses, but Zhu is working to understand the joint yield and areal responses (i.e., both the natural and human responses). He has completed a manuscript (currently under review at Nature Communications) showing that temperature shocks lead to reduced wheat production through both direct yield impacts and an indirect price-mediated change in harvested rate - farmers are less likely to harvest their fields in high temperature, low-yield years. He is also working on a global map of cropland seasonality to understand areal responses over time, and changes in cropping frequency. PI Brouwer: Graduate student Saeedmanesh, supervised by Brouwer as well as Senior Personnel Samuelsen and Dabdub, has completed work on a set of detailed California energy scenarios (annual, hourly-resolved grid simulations using the UCI-developed HiGRID model) for power, gas, and transportation sectors in California. These simulations will form the framework for the integrated FEW system modeling of Phase 3 of our INFEWS project in the coming 2 years. All the PIs are also involved. Graduate student Saeedmanesh also led a study co-authored by Co-PI Brouwer that evaluated options for producing hydrogen from zero-carbon electricity sources that was published in the Journal of Electrochemical Energy Conversion and Storage and a review paper in Current Opinion in Electrochemistry. Also under the supervision of Co-PI Brouwer and Senior Personnel Samuelsen and Dabdub, postdocs Mackinnon and Tarroja have also been working to prepare regional air quality modeling tools for assessing the air quality impacts of each of the scenarios - work was required to produce emissions and meteorological fields for annual simulations (versus episodic modeling of atmospheric chemistry and transport). PI AghaKouchak: A former postdoc of Co-PI AghaKouchak, Mojtaba Sadegh, in collaboration with AghaKouchak and all of the other PIs, has developed an interactive analysis toolbox, which we call Nexus of Food, Energy, and Water (NeFEW), that synthesizes available water, food and energy data at the country-level. The toolbox can be used for both research and educational purposes. A methods paper demonstrating the toolbox is under review. Graduate student Martinez, supervised by AghaKouchak, is completing an analysis of the global nutritional impacts of historical droughts using a network model of international trade. PI Davis is also involved. Postdoc Mazdiyasni, supervised by AghaKouchak, is working on a statistical analysis of heat and peak electricity demand in the U.S., which has important implications for water use, human health, and electricity system planning.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2020 Citation: Jesus Gonzalez*, Amir AghaKouchak, Morgan C. Levy, Yue Qin, Jennifer Burney, Steven J. Davis, and Frances C. Moore, in review, Adaptive Benefits of Agricultural Water Markets, Nature Communications.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2020 Citation: Jesus Gonzalez* and Frances C. Moore, in revision, Intertemporal Arbitrage of Water and Long-Term Agricultural Investments: Drought, Groundwater Banking, and Perennial Cropping Decisions in California, American Journal of Agricultural Economics
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Lindsey L. Sloat, Steven J. Davis, James Gerber, Frances C. Moore, Deepak Ray, Paul C. West, and Nathaniel D. Mueller, 2020, Climate Adaptation by Crop Migration, Nature Communications, 11, 1243, doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-15076-4
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Chaopeng Hong, Nathan Mueller, Jennifer Burney, Yang Zhang, Amir AghaKouchak, Frances C. Moore, Yue Qin, Dan Tong, and Steven J. Davis, 2020, Impacts of Ozone and Climate Change on California Perennial Crops, Nature Food, 1�166-172
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Charles Kolstad and Frances C. Moore, 2020, Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change Using Weather Observations, Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 1-25, doi: 10.1093/reep/rez024


Progress 01/01/18 to 12/31/18

Outputs
Target Audience:Target audiences reached during this reporting period are researchersworking on the food-energy water (FEW)nexus, reached through presentations at American Geophysical Union, and other researchers and policy-makers working on FEW issues, reached through publications from the project team. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Training for graduate students and postdocs in Agricultural Resource Economics at UC Davis, the School of Global Policy & Strategy at UC San Diego, and Civil & Environmental Engineering, Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, and Earth System Science at UC Irvine. PI Davis and a colleague at UC Irvine, Nathan Mueller, have developed two new undergraduate courses called "Sustainable Food and Water Systems" and "Sustainable Energy Systems" that together comprise part of the core curriculum of a new Bachelor of Arts degree in Environmental Science and Policy. The food-energy-water nexus will be discussed in depth and analyzed by class projects in both of the courses. This course development was an outreach activity discussed in our original INFEWS proposal. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?As mentioned above, Co-PI Burney has a paper published on the methods she is using to estimate crop water demand, Co-PI AghaKouchak has a paper published on drought impacts on agriculture, and PI Davis also has a paper in review. The published papers have been disseminated directly to colleagues and the public via social media. Individual PIs have also discussed the project with officers at the California Energy Commission and the California Independent System Operator. Co-PI Burney will visit the San Diego Chamber of Commerce Energy and Water committee meeting this fall to serve on a panel about the food-energy-water nexus. Co-PI Burney and PI Davis are co-convening a session at the American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting in December: https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm18/preliminaryview.cgi/Session53031.html Postdoc Levy (Burney) presented results at the AGU Fall Meeting in December. Graduate student Gonzalez (Moore) presented results at the AGU Fall Meeting in December. Postdoc Qin (Davis) and PI Davis will presented results at a workshop on energy-water linkages at Cambridge University in October. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?In the next reporting period, we anticipate that several major analyses will be published in the peer-reviewed literature, and team members will present results at national meetings (see Major Activities above). We will also begin on next steps, including: (Phase 2): Analyzing the effect of recent and future changes in snowmelt on agricultural and energy production in California. Coupling and testing hydrological, energy and crop models of California Co-PI Moore speicifically will submit with paper with graduate student Gonzalez on the adaptive benefits of water market reform for irrigated agriculture in California. She and Gonzalez plan to begin analyzing field-level data from Kern County on the role security of water rights plays in determining the switch from annual to perennial crops.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Phase 1 research is continuing and the groundwork necessary for Phase 2 is in process, with analyses led by graduate students of postdocs supervised by one or more of the PIs. We meet biweekly via Skype, and all PIs, postdocs and students met in-person in April 2018 at UC Irvine. Specifically: PI Davis: Davis led a high-profile review paper in Science entitled "Net-zero emissions energy systems" in which the technological and economic challenges associated with complete decarbonization of modern energy systems were explored and future research agendas prioritized. Davis is a coauthor of a paper in press at Nature Plants showing the impacts of climate change on barley agriculture and thus global beer supply. Davis is a coauthor of a paper under review showing evidence that farmers altered their crops to save water during the CA drought. Postdoc Hong, supervised by Davis, is completing a statistical analysis using USDA data on how temperatures and air pollution (specifically ozone) have affected yields of perennial crops in CA over the past 30 years. Paper will be submitted soon; Co-PIs Burney and Moore are also co-authors. Postdoc Qin, supervised by Davis and collaborator Nathan Mueller, is completing a project assessing how vulnerability to water stress may vary according to the different uses of water and their flexibility. Analysis is global. Paper will be submitted soon; Co-PIs Burney and AghaKouchak are also co-authors. Studies on the impacts of changing snowmelt on California agriculture, the water use/carbon emissions trade-offs of electricity-generating technologies, and a detailed accounting of the drivers of land use emissions are also well underway, led by postdocs Qin and Hong. PI Moore: Graduate student Gonzalez, supervised by Moore, is finalizing a paper quantifying the benefits of water market reform for irrigated agriculture in California under climate change. This work was presented at the AGU Fall Meeting in December 2018. Lead PI Davis, and Co-PIs Burney and AghaKouchak are all involved. PI Burney: Graduate student Tutterow, supervised by Burney, is using the InVEST model to produce spatially-explicitestimates of water yield andcrop water demand over the entire state of California 2006-2016. This work was underway during the last period, but required considerable model development in order to cover the entire state of California; the computations are now complete. The computed yields will now be used as inputs to energy and food models. Co-PIs Moore, Davis and AghaKouchak anticipate using the results of this analysis. Postdoc Levy, supervised by Burney, is using a novel technique to model water demand, linking remotely sensing subsidence data from interferometric synthetic aperature radar and GPSc to spatially-explicit datasets of crop area and production. PI Brouwer: Graduate student Saeedmanesh, supervised by Brouwer as well as Senior Personnel Samuelsen and Dabdub, has been working to develop energy conversion scenarios (annual, hourly-resolved grid simulations using the UCI-developed HiGRID model) for power, gas, and transportation sectors in California that included various levels of environmental and emissions policies and advanced technology implementation that include the following major features: Case 1 - High renewables and high electrification for E3 PATHWAYS Case for 2050 Case 2 - Partial gas decarbonization case with partial electrification and high renewable use for 2050 Case 3 - Worst case with current policies and frozen technology from now to 2050 Case 4 - Mixed scenario (half-way to E3 PATHWAYS 2050 case) Case 5 - 95-100% Zero Emissions case with hydrogen and fuel cells (all zero emissions) and use of hydrogen for all industrial, heavy duty trucking, locomotives, and ships These simulations are necessary to understand the temporal dynamics and prepare for the assessment of spatial impacts that could be connected to agriculture and water impacts. PI Davis and other Co-PIs are also involved. Two papers, one led by Postdoc Mackinnon and another by a former graduate student on the project, Ebrahimi, were published. Also under the supervision of Co-PI Brouwer and Senior Personnel Samuelsen and Dabdub, postdocs Mackinnon and Tarroja have also been working to prepare regional air quality modeling tools for assessing the air quality impacts of each of the scenarios - work was required to produce emissions and meteorological fields for annual simulations (versus episodic modeling of atmospheric chemistry and transport). PI AghaKouchak: A former postdoc of Co-PI AghaKouchak, Mojtaba Sadegh, in collaboration with AghaKouchak and all of the other PIs, has developed an interactive analysis toolbox, which we call Nexus of Food, Energy, and Water (NeFEW), that synthesizes available water, food and energy data at the country-level. The toolbox can be used for both research and educational purposes. A methods paper demonstrating the toolbox is under review. Graduate student Martinez, supervised by AghaKouchak, is working to develop a network model that can describe propagation of the impacts of droughts on water, food and energy around the globe (via trade). Graduate student Mazdiyasni, supervised by AghaKouchak, has used statistical approaches to estimate the health impacts of heat waves when electricity is not widely available, and has published a paper in Science Advances on this work.

Publications

  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Gonzalez, J., Moore., F. C., AghaKouchak, A., Qin, Y., 2018. "Estimating the Adaptive Benefit of Water Market Reform for Irrigated Agriculture" American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, 14th December. Washington DC.


Progress 01/01/17 to 12/31/17

Outputs
Target Audience:One publication has resulted from this grant to date (see below). This has reached the target audience of researchers and academics working on climate change impacts, adaptation, and robust decision-making. It provides valuable guidance to researchers studying the impacts of climate change on agriculture by reporting results of a systematic comparison between two different approaches to estimating the yield impacts of climate change (i.e. process-based and empirical yield models). Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?One graduate student, Jesus Gonzalez, has been supported on this grant. As part of his work on this grant he has gained experience in spatial data analysis and use of agricultural data products. Other professional opportunities have been provided to two research assistants (recently-graduated from undergrad), Rudy Huezo and Ross Kelly. Both are gaining valuable skills in web scraping (Rudy) and spatial data analysis (Ross). How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?One journal article has disseminated findings to the research community to date. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?In the next year, analysis on three components of the project will be finalized and written up for publication. 1) Regression analysis of water usage to understand how cropping decisions and property rights (i.e. status year of the right) affected reductions in water use during the drought; 2) Validation of the CDL data for California; 3) An analysis of the adaptive benefits of restructuring the CA water rights regime based on combining stream flow projections with observed demand and crop water-use efficiency estimates.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? One publication has resulted. On going work has scraped self-reported monthly water usage information from surface rights holders in California from the DWR website. These are currently being analyzed to understand how cropping decisions and property rights affected reductions in water use during the California drought. Information from the USDA's Cropland Data Layer has also been extracted. We are in the process of performing a validation of the CDL crop classification in California against field-level data from the state Department of Water Resources, Kern County, and annual county agricultural reports. This will provide valuable guidance for researchers and managers seeking to apply the CDL product in California.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Moore, F. C., Baldos, U., and Hertel, T. 2017. "Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture: A Comparison of Process-Based and Statistical Yield Models", Environmental Research Letters, 12, v. 6, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa6eb2