Progress 07/21/16 to 06/30/21
Outputs Target Audience:The NJ land use/land cover change analysis conducted for this project was developed to address the information needs for a number of land use and regional planning entities, including: The New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection, Pinelands Commission, NJ Highlands Council, U.S. Forest Service, the U.S. Geological Survey, The US Fish & Wildlife Service, the NJ Division of Fish & Wildlife and other non-governmental organizations concerned with the consequences of land use/land cover change on aquatic ecosystems, wildlife habitat and forest health; The Barnegat Bay and Delaware Bay Estuary Programs, Jacques Cousteau National Estuarine Research Reserve and the American Littoral Society on coastal land use, sea level rise impacts and habitat protection issues; and, New Jersey Green Acres, the Trust for Public Land, the Nature Conservancy, New Jersey Future and the Association of NJ Environmental Commissions and other non-governmental organizations on prioritizing its open space preservation/watershed protection/habitat restoration efforts. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?One graduate student assisted on the geospatial analysis for this project. He developed proficiency is various aspects of Geospatial analysis and maps/graphics production. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?The resulting reports are available at http://crssa.rutgers.edu/projects/lc/ and archived in the Rutgers University Library. https://scholarship.libraries.rutgers.edu/esploro/outputs/report/Changing-landscapes-in-the-Garden-State/991031550019104646 A press release was developed and distributed. Rutgers University highlighted the project on the Rutgers Today website https://www.rutgers.edu/news/land-development-new-jersey-continues-slow Several news outlets picked up the story. https://nj1015.com/nj-land-development-slows-down-but-covid-leaves-future-uncertain/ https://whyy.org/articles/pandemic-has-potential-to-renew-demand-for-suburban-housing-in-n-j-land-use-expert-says/ What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?
Nothing Reported
Impacts What was accomplished under these goals?
Goal 1. Map changes in urban land use as of 2015 to provide an updated picture of urban development for selected NJ watershed/regions to assess. Longer term: Goal 2. Analyze land use change across a longer time period (i.e. from 1986 to 2015) to provide a more detailed characterization of statewide spatial and temporal trends. As part of the Hatch-supported NJ Landscape Change Research Program, we analyzed the changes in the state's land use/land cover occurring between the spring of 2012 and spring of 2015 (Goal 1) based on the New Jersey Land Use/Land Cover Change (NJLULCC) data set (developed by private contractors to the state of New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection). Conversion of green space to new urban development in New Jersey has continued to slow from its historic high pace of new urban development in the 1990's and 2000's. Between the year 2012 and 2015, New Jersey expanded the amount of urban land by 10,392 acres, equivalent to a rate of 3,464 acres of new urban development per year. This rate represents a continuation of the trend of decreasing urban development initiated during the Great Recession of 2008. In comparison, urban development grew at a pace of 16,852 acres per year in the late 1990's. Over the 2012 to 2015 time period, New Jersey had a population growth rate of 0.3% (from 8.85 million in 2012 to 8.87 million in 2015) and an urban growth rate of 0.7% (from 1.56 to 1.57 million acres). The three year period from 2012 to 2015 saw population growth occurring at less than the rate of urbanization, although the magnitude of both rates of change has declined significantly over the 29 year study period (Goal 2). Goal 3. Undertake focused studies of coastal habitat change to inform coastal resiliency planning and management. New Jersey prides itself on being a coastal state with the 'Shore' an integral part of the Jersey psyche. As elsewhere in the United States and the world, there has been an increasing concentration of population and development in New Jersey's coastal zone. One notable success story has been the near complete halting of the dredging, filling and development of coastal wetlands. Coastal wetlands - those wetlands along the tidal coastline where dominant vegetation is tolerant of saline conditions- were protected under the Wetlands Act of 1970, as well as the Coastal Area Facility Review Act of 1973 (CAFRA), and the Waterfront Development Law of 1914 (ANJEC, 2004). The NJLULCC data set shows a steady decline in the rate of coastal wetland conversion to urban land uses. During the nearly three decades between 1986 and 2015, 1,046 acres of coastal wetlands were mapped as converting to urban uses with only 26 acres of that change occurring between 2012 and 2015. The NJLUCC mapping suggests that 311 acres per year of coastal wetlands converted to BARREN during T5. Of the 934 acres of coastal wetlands converted to BARREN during T5, the vast majority (908 acres) was converted to beaches (through the process where sand beaches overwash, usually during major storm events, such as SuperStorm Sandy, and bury adjacent salt marsh). Given the importance of coastal wetlands for the host of ecosystem services they provide, a series of targeted studies to document past change and project potential future change was undertaken. Three key aspects that can govern salt marsh sustainability were considered: 1) shoreline erosion (i.e., horizontal change); 2) the maintenance of elevation (i.e., vertical change) of the marsh platform; and, 3) the conversion of adjacent upland and wetland areas to salt marsh under future sea level rise (referred to herein as marsh retreat zones). The methods employed to model future change in coastal wetlands and adjacent upland areas is described in greater detail in Appendix C. Our comparison of the 1977 New Jersey Tidelands and LiDAR-derived shoreline maps for the year 2010 suggests that nearly 4,400 acres of salt marsh were converted to tidal flat or open water during the intervening 33 years. In some locations, the shoreline has retreated over 1,000'. To project potential future change, three scenarios of sea level rise (1, 2 and 3') out to the Year 2050 were modeled. Our results suggests that approximately 20% of New Jersey's salt marshes are highly vulnerable to conversion to tidal mud flat or open water or heightened "drowning" stress by 2050. We estimate that nearly 25,000 acres (or over 11%) of existing salt marsh is vulnerable to conversion to tidal flat or open water from continued marsh shoreline erosion. An additional 19,000 acres (or nearly 9%) of interior marsh is vulnerable to biological stress or conversion under 1 feet of sea level rise. A proportion of the expected loss due to erosion and drowning may be balanced by new marsh created as upland/wetland forests or abandoned cropland are converted (through natural succession) to salt marsh We refer to those areas where new marsh may develop in the future as unimpeded marsh retreat zones. Our modeling of a 3' SLR scenario mapped 66,343 acres of marsh retreat zones statewide, though not enough to compensate for the expected losses. We suggest that these marsh retreat zones should be high priority for conservation protection to allow New Jersey's salt marshes to "migrate" to provide some level of compensation for expected losses from sea level rise in the coming decades. The resulting reports are available at http://crssa.rutgers.edu/projects/lc/ and archived in the Rutgers University Library. https://scholarship.libraries.rutgers.edu/esploro/outputs/report/Changing-landscapes-in-the-Garden-State/991031550019104646
Publications
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2020
Citation:
Changing landscapes in the Garden State: land use change in New Jersey 1986 through 2015 Richard G. Lathrop and John E. Hasse Rutgers University; 2020; DOI: https://doi.org/10.7282/t3-x1yc-dh86
https://scholarship.libraries.rutgers.edu/esploro/outputs/report/Changing-landscapes-in-the-Garden-State/991031550019104646
- Type:
Websites
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2020
Citation:
New Jersey Landscape Change Research Program
https://crssa.rutgers.edu/projects/lc/urban_growth.html
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Progress 10/01/19 to 09/30/20
Outputs Target Audience:The target audience includesfederal, state and local government agencies and non-governmental organizations engaged inland use and regional planning. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?
Nothing Reported
How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?A report summarizing the finding was published onlinehttps://doi.org/doi:10.7282/t3-x1yc-dh86 Rutgers University sent out a press release advertising the report and several interviews with radio and newspapers/news sites were done. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Undertake focused studies of coastal habitat change to inform coastal resiliency planning and management.
Impacts What was accomplished under these goals?
A team of researchers from Rutgers and Rowan Universities undertook a study examining New Jersey's urban growth and land use change over the past three decades. The research team led by Richard Lathrop (Rutgers University) and John Hasse (Rowan University) have collaborated on a number of studies tracking New Jersey's changing landscape. The team reliedheavily on the NJ Department of Environmental Protection's Land Use/Land Cover Change (NJLULCC) data set with the focus of analyzingland use/land cover data mapped in 2015 but publicly released in 2019. A report summarizing the finding was published onlinehttps://doi.org/doi:10.7282/t3-x1yc-dh86 The most recent data available (between the year 2012 and 2015) reveals that New Jersey has expanded the amount of urban land at a rate of 3,464 acres of new urban development per year. This rate represents a continuation of the trend of decreasing urban development initiated during the Great Recession of 2008. Not only was there a dramatic slowdown statewide in overall acres developed, the residential footprint shrank in relative proportion when compared to other urban land uses.The report notes that the conversion of green space to new urban development in New Jersey has continued to slow from its historic high pace of new urban development in the 1990's and 2000's. While the rate of farmland converted to urban land uses has decreased quite dramatically in recent years, the conversion of upland and wetland forests has shown an uptick. This loss of forestlands is concerning as these ecosystems play a critical role in removing carbon from the atmosphere and storing it in wood and forest soils.
Publications
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2020
Citation:
Lathrop, R.G. and J.E. Hasse. 2020. Changing landscapes in the Garden State: land use change in New Jersey 1986 through 2015. Rutgers University Center for Remote Sensing & Spatial Analysis. https://doi.org/doi:10.7282/t3-x1yc-dh86
- Type:
Websites
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2020
Citation:
Changing Landscapes in the Garden State: Land Use Change in New Jersey, 19862015. https://crssa.rutgers.edu/projects/lc/urban_growth.html
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Progress 10/01/18 to 09/30/19
Outputs Target Audience:Natural resource management agencies, land use planning agencies, land and wildlife conservation non-governmental organizations, coastal decision-makers Changes/Problems:The only substantive change vs. the original proposal was that we would examine LULC change between 2012 to 2017. However, the state of New Jersey has released (in the fall of 2019) only a 2015 LULC dataset, not a 2017 LULC dataset; thus the 2015 data set has been the subject of our project. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?
Nothing Reported
How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?
Nothing Reported
What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?We plan on completing our 2015 NJ LULC Change analysis in the next reporting period and document the results in a report. We will post this report on the Rutgers Center for Remote Sensing & Spatial Anlaysis NJ Landscape Change Research Program website https://crssa.rutgers.edu/projects/lc/ .
Impacts What was accomplished under these goals?
The state of New Jersey released the 2015 NJ Land Use/Land Cover digital GIS data set. We are in the process of undertaking a detailed spatial analysis of the land use/land cover change data set to quantify the trends, and map the key hotspots of landscape change. In prior work, we have developed a series of key indicators of landscape impacts (Landscape Resource Impact (LRI) Indicators) as a means of assessing the consequences of urban growth on the state's natural resources. The indicators that are being assessed include: 1) urban growth density (i.e., efficiency of land utilization); 2) prime farmland loss; 3) core forest habitat loss; 4) natural wetlands loss; and 5) impervious surface cover gain. By looking across this most changes between 2012 (date of prior LU/LC mapping) and 2015, we are quantifying what types of land uses are replacing the 3 key natural resources lands (forests, farms and wetlands) and at what rates. Of particular interest are the gains and losses in forest habitat cover due to land use conversion to urban or agricultural uses vs. natural succession of abandoned farms and/or urban lands back to forest. The spatial locations and characteristics of these forest land transitions may have major implications on the attendant ecosystem services (i.e., habitat value, water quality protection, carbon sequestration) lost or gained. Similarly, we are examing changes in wetland habitats to compare with our other ongoing coastal marsh studies. This knowledge gained through the above analyses will then inform and leverage complementary field studies.
Publications
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Progress 10/01/17 to 09/30/18
Outputs Target Audience:Natural Resource and wildlife management professionals, coastal land use planners Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?An undergraduate and graduate student participated in the data work this period How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?A presentation was given in May 2017at a special workshopon 20 years of Conservation and Research on the Delaware Bay Stopover. http://arubewithaview.com/2017/06/06/abstracts/ What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?We are finalizing the analysis of the digital mapping and preparing a manuscript for publication. The final digital data will be made available for free public download athttps://crssa.rutgers.edu/projects/hcrab/
Impacts What was accomplished under these goals?
Under Goal 3: detailed mapping of coastal beach habitat change of the Delaware Bayshore, both on the New Jersey as well as Delaware coastlines. This mapping was conducted using public domain aerial imagery for the Year 2017. The work updates earlier work from 2002 and 2010. The focus is on characterizing the quality of the beach as horseshoe crab spawning habitat.
Publications
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Progress 10/01/16 to 09/30/17
Outputs Target Audience:Natural resource/watershed/coastal zone managers, land use planners and persons involved with wildlife conservation Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Several undergraduate students and a postdoctoral associate were engaged in the projects. These students were able to present the results of the work through poster and oral presenetations at several professional conferences. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Mapped products were developed and provided to interested stakeholders. Data from the salt marsh change work was incorporated into an online data portal www.NJadapt.com. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Under Objective 2: Additional analysis of the consequences of land use/land cover change on watershed health in the Raritan River Watershed. Under Objective 3: more refined modeling of future marsh land cover under changing climate and sea level rise.
Impacts What was accomplished under these goals?
Under Objective 2, we undertook a comprehensive assessment of land use/land cover change in the Raritan River Basin. Under Objective 3, we undertook a number of studies on coastal habitat change: Loss and fragmentation of seagrass meadows in Barnegat Bay NJ due to recreational boating activities; Mapping and modeling of change in salt marsh extent due to "marsh" drowning and shoreline edge erosion.
Publications
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Lathrop RL, Bognar J, Buenaventura E, Ciappi M, Green E, and Belton, TJ (2017) Establishment of Marine Protected Areas to Reduce Watercraft Impacts in Barnegat Bay, New Jersey. Journal of Coastal Research: Special Issue 78 - A Comprehensive Assessment of Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor, New Jersey: pp. 277-286. https://doi.org/10.2112/SI78-019.1
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Progress 07/21/16 to 09/30/16
Outputs Target Audience:Watershed associations, environmental protection agencies and non-governmental organizations interested in the implicatiosn of land use change Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Trained undergraduate and post-doctoral associates on how to process and analysze land cover change data sets. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?The Raritan Basin results were presented at a public forum on November 9 and to the basin's watershed assocations on November 21, 2016. Both meetings were held on Rutgers University campus. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Further assess more recent land cover changes (as of 2015) to address questions related to: Short term post SuperStorm Sandy-related damage and rebuilding; Development/redevelopment during the tail end of the Great Recession
Impacts What was accomplished under these goals?
We undertook an analysis of land use/land cover change in the Barnegat Bay watershed for the period 1986-1995-2002-2007-2012-2015. This was undertaken using the NJ Department of Environmental Protection New Jersey Land Use/Land Cover Change (NJLULCC). This data set represents a detailed mapping of the land use and land cover as depicted in high resolution aerial photography that was acquired in the spring of 2012. The imagery was then classified and mapped providing a window into how the Garden State has developed over the past several decades (from 1986 through 2012) and the subsequent consequences to its land base. To update the land use change to 2015, visual interpretation and heads-up digitizing of March 2015 digitial orthophotography was undertaken for the Barnegat Bay watershed. The land use change trends were analyzed and the results incorporated into the State of the Barnegat Bay Report 2016. Several key indicators were also examined (e.g., Upland Forest, Wetlands and Prime Agricultural land conversion) were analyzed.
Publications
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Contribution to the State of the Barnegat Bay Report 2016
http://bbp.ocean.edu/PDFFiles/SOTB%202016
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