Source: UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS submitted to
UNDERSTANDING THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FOREST AND ON-FARM TREE CONSERVATION AND MANAGEMENT
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
TERMINATED
Funding Source
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
1009327
Grant No.
(N/A)
Project No.
ILLU-875-962
Proposal No.
(N/A)
Multistate No.
(N/A)
Program Code
(N/A)
Project Start Date
Mar 2, 2016
Project End Date
Feb 28, 2021
Grant Year
(N/A)
Project Director
Miller, DA, .
Recipient Organization
UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS
2001 S. Lincoln Ave.
URBANA,IL 61801
Performing Department
Natural Resources & Environmental Sciences
Non Technical Summary
Forests and trees on farms contribute to human well-being in a variety of ways. They provide goods ranging from fruit to timber, fodder to firewood, and services such as pollination, hydrological regulation, and carbon sequestration that support the livelihoods of millions of people around the world. Globally, the formal forest sector employs more than 13.2 million people and generates a gross value added of just over US$ 600billion or about 0.9 percent of global GDP annually. In the United States, the forest products industry alone accounts for approximately 4 percent of the total U.S. manufacturing GDP and forests and trees on farms provide a variety of other benefits to the millions of people around the country. Illinois is no exception where forests cover more than 13% of the state's total land area, providing more than 36,000 jobs in the forest products industry alone, and generating an estimated $620 million annually to the state's economy. Despite the benefits of forestry and agroforestry, however, public recognition remains lacking in many contexts in the US and more broadly. This research project will therefore help advance knowledge of the socio-economic contribution forests and trees on farms have made in the past and may make in the future in the US and globally. Specifically, it will undertake literature reviews and other systematic analysis to document the relationship between forests and on-farm trees and socio-economic well-being and increase understanding of the effectiveness of different types of forestry and agroforestry interventions in enhancing such well-being over the long term.
Animal Health Component
0%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
80%
Applied
20%
Developmental
(N/A)
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
Knowledge Area


Subject Of Investigation


Field Of Science

Goals / Objectives
The overarching goal of this project is to advance knowledge of the socio-economic contribution forests and trees on farms have made in the past and may make in the future. The focus is global and comparative in nature in order to shed new light on the historic, contemporary and future contribution of forests and on-farm trees in Illinois, the United States and more broadly.This project has two major objectives: 1. To document the relationship between forests and trees on farms and socio-economic well-being throughout the world; and 2. To increase understanding of the effectiveness of different types of forestry and agroforestry interventions in enhancing socio-economic well-being over the long term.
Project Methods
The methods used will be a systematic map and review of the relevant literature combined with, where possible, cross-case regression analysis, particularly in relation to the work on empirically validating predictive proxy indicators. The main method of reaching the target audience will be through publication and dissemination of results in peer-reviewed journal articles as well as attendant media coverage, including social media like Twitter. The outputs will be peer-reviewed and therefore the quality checked in this way.

Progress 03/02/16 to 02/28/21

Outputs
Target Audience:We have reported on target audiences in previous reports. For this final reporting period we reached the following: Roughly 25 academics in October 2020 for an invited presentation on international conservation funding and impacts to the Environmental Change Initiative at the University of Notre Dame 30 academics and students in September 2020 for an invited Seminar (with J. Guest), Sanitation as a Human-Derived Resource System. Center for Behavior, Institutions and the Environment, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona. 35 practitioners and academics in February 2020 for an invited plenary presentation (with S.E. Brown). Current Knowledge on the Effectiveness of Agroforestry Interventions and Implications for Research, Policy, and Practical Action. Workshop on Agroforestry and Community-based Reforestation in Asia, Africa and Latin America, The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, Virginia. Changes/Problems:The COVID-19 pandemicdelayed andchanged the shape of some of our outreach and slowed the pace of publication (due to PI responsibilities at home during lockdown and remote learning and work). Fortunately, most of the field and other research was done prior to the pandemic, so we were only delayed about sixmonths. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?The project has supported post-graduate, graduate, and undergraduate students who work closely with the project lead and other experts (e.g. the IUFRO Global Expert Panel, ICRAF on Agroforestry, and the forestry Extension specialist at Dixon Springs for the University of Illinois) to advance their training and knowledge in several areas, notably in conducting a systematic map and review of the literature and in carrying out original research in the field.The project has also supported professional development primarily in the form of participation in conferences/professional meetings. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Results have been disseminated as follows: peer-reviewed journal articles; invited workshops; conference presentations; discussions with key stakeholders (e.g. in Southern Illinois and internatinoally via IUFRO,the FLARE network and other means);updating and populatingof user-friendly, open-access data portals;and social media (e.g. twitter posts and discussion). What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? We have now completed the work proposed to reach the overall goal of the project "to advance knowledge of the socio-economic contribution forests and trees on farms have made in the past and may make in the future." Our overall assessment is that we have met and exceeded our expectations for this project.Early work under the project helped establish the reputation of the PI Miller such that he was recognized as a global expert on the socio-economic dimensions of forests and tree-based systems and selected to lead a major global assessment on forests, trees and the eradication of poverty supported by IUFRO.This report was launched at the UN in October 2020 and also as set of separate journal articles in a special issue of Forest Policy and Economics.It also led to a separate program of work on this topic focused on Africa.We have connected findings to the U.S. through discussion with academic and practitioner audiences, including the U.S. Forest Service and others through the Forests and Livelihoods: Assessment Research and Engagement (FLARE) research network.Another impact of this Hatch project is that the PI was selected to serve as coordinator for this research network, which includes nearly a 1,000 members worldwide. In all, research under this project has helped to support fourdissertations, fourMS thesis, and several working papers, and more than a dozen peer-reviewed journal articles. The peer-review and public availability of our findings and data is a major impact of this work. The has supported more than fifteenundergraduate students in research, four master's students, four PhD students (two of whom have finished, with the other two expected to finish in the coming twoyears), and two post-docs. Without this support their academic progress and degrees would not have been possible, a notable impact itself. Accomplishments - Objective 1: To document the relationship between forests and trees on farms and socio-economic well-being throughout the world. Major Activities Completed: 1) Publication of a special issue of Forest Policy and Economics on Forests, Trees, and the Eradication of Poverty (including eightarticles); 2) Publication of a journal article on the number and spatial distribution of people living in or near forests, globally; and 3) Publication of several syntheses of evidence on the impacts of agroforestry practices and interventions on agricultural productivity, ecosystem services, and human well-being in the U.S. and other countries worldwide.One example is:https://gapmaps.3ieimpact.org/evidence-maps/agroforestry-evidence-gap-map; Data Collected: For Activity 1, data were derived from a review of the scholarly literature on the topic; for Activity 2we collected spatially explicit data on human population density and forest cover globally from 2000 and 2012.For Activity 3, data were reported as last year. Summary Statistics and Discussion of Results: A top line finding from this research is that forests and trees are critical to the global struggle to alleviate and ultimately eradicate poverty (under UN SDG 1).We found that, globally, 1.6 billion rural people lived within fivekm of a forest in 2012. Of these, 64.5% lived in tropical countries.We developed the concept ''forest-proximate people'' to refer to people who live in and around forests and as a means to refine our understanding of how people rely on forests around the world.The United States ranked second (to China) in terms of the number of forest proximate people with 169 million people or 11% of the world's total. Key Outcomes or Other Accomplishments Realized: The PI led the IUFRO global assessment on forests and poverty, as described above. This collaboration is amplifying research under this project and has led to additional student and post-doc participation and new collaborations (e.g. with FLARE and the FAO). See also above. Accomplishments - Objective 2: To increase understanding of the effectiveness of different types of forestry and agroforestry interventions in enhancing socio-economic well-being over the long term. Major Activities Completed: 1) Publication of three articles in top field journals from the dissertation of PhD graduate, Dr. Festus Amadu, looking at the impacts of climate-smart agriculture intervention in Malawi, including on agroforestry dimensions, 2) Publication of a journal article examining impacts of on-farm tree planting and management on household well-being in Uganda; and 3) Publication of a global review on the impacts of forest-related property rights reforms on poverty. Data Collected: For Activity 1 we compiled data from a household survey of more than 800 households in southern Malawi on adoption and impacts of climate smart agriculture activities. For Activity 2, we compiledhousehold-level data from the 2005-2006, 2010-2011, and 2013-2014 in the Ugandan National Panel Surveys.This nationally representative panel data included information on two dimensions of household well-being -- income and food security and nutrition -- and a set of predictor variables, including measures on adoption and abandonment of trees on farms, demographic factors, and other socioeconomic variables. For Activity 3, we conducted a systematic review of the evidence on different intervention impacts on poverty.Our final dataset included 61 articles published from 2002 to 2016 comprising 91 case studies across 24 countries. Summary Statistics and Discussion of Results: For Activity 1, weestimated the impact of a major CSA aid effort (the United States Agency for International Development-funded Wellness and Agriculture for Life's Advancement (WALA) project) on agricultural yields in Southern Malawi, using an endogenous switching regression and control function approach. We found that a 53% increase in maize yield among CSA adopters in the drought year of 2016. This is a significant result given the generally low yields in that part of the world and that it was a drought year. These results demonstrate that policies and funding streams supporting CSA in low-income, dryland contexts such as southern Malawi can have important impacts on food security by boosting crop yields in the face of increasing climate uncertainty and extreme weather shocks. For Activity 2, we also found positive well-being results from trees on farms.In Uganda, we foundthat growing trees especially fruit trees, was associated with improvements in both total household consumption and nutritional outcomes (proxied by weight and wasting status of children younger than fiveyears old). For Activity 3, we foundthat almost all studied interventions (n=88; 97%) focused on rights to access a forest area or withdraw resources from it. Relatively few studied interventions supported the more extensive property rights of exclusion (32%) and alienation (10%). Key Outcomes or Other Accomplishments Realized: We have raised awareness of this work among academic and policy audiences through presentations, including at the World Bank and the World Agroforestry Center and several different U.S. universities. See other impacts above.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2021 Citation: Afonso, R. and Miller, D.C. 2021. Forest plantations and local economic development: Evidence from Minas Gerais, Brazil. Forest Policy and Economics, 133, p.102618.
  • Type: Other Status: Under Review Year Published: 2021 Citation: Shyamsundar, P., F. Cohen, T., Boucher, T. Kroeger, G. Waterfield, C. Clarke, S. C. Cook-Patton, J.T. Erbaugh, E. Garcia, K. Juma, S. Kaur, C. Leisher, A. Melo, D.C. Miller, K. Oester, S. Saigal, J. Siikamaki, E. Sills, T. Thaung, B. Trihadmojo, F. Veiga, J. R. Vincent, Yuanyuan Yi and X. Zhang. 2021. The promise of and challenges to scaling smallholder-driven tree cover restoration in the tropics. Nature Sustainability (Under Review).
  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Published Year Published: 2021 Citation: Christhel Sonia Jesugnon Padonou. 2021. Tracking and assessing the socio-economic impacts of conservation funding in Benin over the long term. MS Thesis, Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2021 Citation: Rana, P. and Miller, D.C. 2021. Predicting the long-term social and ecological impacts of tree-planting programs: Evidence from northern India. World Development 140: 105367.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2021 Citation: Castle, S.E., Miller, D.C., Ordonez, P.J., Baylis, K. and Hughes, K., 2021. The impacts of agroforestry interventions on agricultural productivity, ecosystem services, and human well-being in low-income and middle-income countries: A systematic review. Campbell Systematic Reviews 17(2): e1167.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2021 Citation: Miller, D.C., Mansourian, S., Gabay, M., Hajjar, R., Jagger, P., Kamoto, J.F., Newton, P., Oldekop, J.A., Razafindratsima, O.H., Shyamsundar, P. and Sunderland, T. 2021. Forests, trees and poverty alleviation: Policy implications of current knowledge. Forest Policy and Economics 131: 102566.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2021 Citation: Miller, D.C. Rana, P., Nakamura, K., Irwin, S., Cheng, S.H., Ahlroth, S. and Perge, E. 2021. A global review of the impact of forest property rights interventions on poverty. Global Environmental Change 66: 102218.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2021 Citation: Miller, D.C., Zavaleta Cheek, J., Mansourian, S., Wildburger, C. 2021 .Forests, trees and the eradication of poverty. Forest Policy and Economics (Forthcoming).


Progress 10/01/19 to 09/30/20

Outputs
Target Audience:During the period we reached several different audiences, including academic, practitioner, and policy audiences. Student audiences were also reached through sharing relevant research results. The total number of people reached is estimated to be more than 120 during this reporting period as follows. Approximately 50 people were reached through the following academic presentations: Daniel Miller and Jeremy Guest, Invited Seminar presentation, 2020.Sanitation as a Human-Derived Resource System.Center for Behavior, Institutions and the Environment,Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ. Afonso, Roberta and D.C. Miller, 2019.Forest plantations and local economic development: Evidence from the municipalities of the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil. XXV IUFRO Congress, Curitiba, Brazil. Another 50 people in policy and practice were reached through these two presentations: Daniel Miller and Sarah Brown, invited plenary presentation forCurrent Knowledge on the Effectiveness of Agroforestry Interventions and Implicationsfor Research, Policy, and Practical Action.2020 workshop onAgroforestry and Community-based Reforestation in Asia, Africa and Latin America, The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA. Daniel Miller. 2019.Do Forest Property Rights Interventions Reduce Poverty? Results from a Systematic Literature Review.World Bank Group, Washington, DC. A further 25 people were reached at a meeting of the Global Expert Panel on Forests and Poverty of the International Union of Forest Research Organizations (IUFRO) at ICRAF-World Agroforestry Center in Nairobi in January, 2020 and again in Vienna (virtually due to Covid-19) in March 2020. By the end of this reporting period the PI was poised to publicize work done under this project to two large audiences via webinars and the launch of a major global assessment on forests and poverty with support from IUFRO - and already presented at expert workshops per the above. These accomplishments will be highlighted in the next and final report for this project. Changes/Problems:COVID-19 has delayed or changed the shape of some of our outreach and slowed the pace of publication (due to PI responsibilities at home during lockdown and remote learning and work). Fortunately,most of the field and other research was done prior to the pandemic, so we are only somewhat delayed on finishing the project as planned. We will be delayed by about six months.Our final report will come after the project ends in early 2021. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?The project has supported post-graduate, graduate, and undergraduate students who work closely with the project lead and other experts (e.g. the IUFRO Global Expert Panel, ICRAF on Agroforestry, and the forestry Extension specialist at Dixon Springs for the University of Illinois) to advance their training and knowledge in several areas, notably in conducting a systematic map and review of the literature and in carrying out original research in the field.The project has also supported professional development primarily in the form of participation in conferences/professional meetings. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Results have been disseminated as follows: peer-reviewed journal articles (fourpublished; onein review); invited workshops (3); conference presentations (2); and updating of user-friendly, open-access data portal (1) and social media (e.g. twitter posts and discussion). What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?We will publish the global report on Forests and Poverty and launch it via a webinar. We will also wrap up remaining papers planned under the project. COVID-19 has delayed or changed the shape of some of our outreach, but given that most of the research was done prior to the pandemic, we are largely on track to finish the project as planned, albeit with about a sixmonth delay. Our final report will come after the project ends in early 2021.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? In this last planned year of the project we have now completed most of the work proposed to reach the overall goal of the project "to advance knowledge of the socio-economic contribution forests and trees on farms have made in the past and may make in the future." We continued to publish additional key papers that we expect to come from this work and have built toward publication of a major global assessment on forests, trees and the eradication of poverty supported by IUFRO.The assessment report will be published in October 2020 and, as separate papers, in a special issue of the journal Forest Policy and Economics in 2021. We will report on these accomplishments in our next, and final report.In all, during this period we have published eightworks, including fourpeer-reviewed journal articles, onedissertation, oneMS thesis, and two working/in review papers.The peer-review and public availability of our findings and data is a major impact of this work during this reporting period. Below we describe some of the main findings. Here, we also highlight that this project has supported three undergraduate students to do honors research, two master's students (one of whom finished in August 2020), three PhD students (one of whom finished in May 2020), and two post-docs. Without this support their academic progress and degrees would not have been possible, a notable impact itself. Accomplishments - Objective 1: To document the relationship between forests and trees on farms and socio-economic well- being throughout the world. Major Activities Completed: Publication of a journal article on the number and spatial distribution of people living in or near forestsand Publication of an evidence gap map (journal article) of the impacts of agroforestry practices and interventions on agricultural productivity, ecosystem services, and human well-being in low and middle income countries.This evidence gap map is available in an interactive publicly accessible form, including all the underlying data (see:https://gapmaps.3ieimpact.org/evidence-maps/agroforestry-evidence-gap-map).We have several other relevant papers completed as working papers and will report them in the next and final report for this project. Data Collected: For Activity 1, we collected spatially explicit data on human population density and forest cover globally om 2000 and 2012.For Activity 2, data were reported as last year. Summary Statistics and Discussion of Results: We found that, globally, 1.6 billion rural people lived within fivekm of a forest in 2012. Of these, 64.5% lived in tropical countries.We developed the concept ''forest- proximate people'' to refer to people who live in and around forests and as a means to refine our understanding of how people rely on forests around the world.The United states ranked second (to China) in terms of the number of forest proximate people with 169 million people or 11% of the world's total.We described the major findings of activity twoin last year's report, when it was just accepted for publication (as opposed to now being published). Key Outcomes or Other Accomplishments Realized: The PI led the IUFRO global assessment on forests and poverty, which was near completion at the end of this reporting period. This collaboration is amplifying research under this project and has led to additional student and post-doc participation and new collaborations. We have published a number of peer-reviewed papers under this objective, with a couple more planned for next year. Funds have also supported three undergraduate students, two of whom have graduated and are now in graduate or law school. Accomplishments - Objective 2: To increase understanding of the effectiveness of different types of forestry and agroforestry interventions in enhancing socio-economic well-being over the long term. Major Activities Completed: Publication of a third article from the dissertation of a recent PhD graduate, Dr. Festus Amadu, looking at the impacts of climate-smart agriculture intervention in Malawi, including on agroforestry dimensions (in the journal Food Policy), and Publication of a journal article examining impacts of on-farm tree planting and management on household well-being in Uganda. Data Collected: For Activity 1 we compiled data from a household survey of more than 800 households in southern Malawi on adoption and impacts of climate smart agriculture activities. For Activity 2, we compiledhousehold-level data from the 2005-2006, 2010-2011, and 2013-2014 in the Ugandan National Panel Surveys.This nationally representative panel data included information on two dimensions of household well-being -income and food security and nutrition - and a set of predictor variables, including measures on adoption and abandonment of trees on farms, demographic factors, and other socioeconomic variables. Summary Statistics and Discussion of Results: For Activity 1, weestimated the impact of a major CSA aid effort (the United States Agency for International Development-funded Wellness and Agriculture for Life's Advancement (WALA) project) on agricultural yields in Southern Malawi, using an endogenous switching regression and control function approach. We found that a 53% increase in maize yield among CSA adopters in the drought year of 2016. This is a significant result given the generally low yields in that part of the world and that it was a drought year. These results demonstrate that policies and funding streams supporting CSA in low-income, dryland contexts such as southern Malawi can have important impacts on food security by boosting crop yields in the face of increasing climate uncertainty and extreme weather shocks.For Activity 2, we also found positive well-being results from trees on farms.In Uganda, we foundthat growing trees especially fruit trees, was associated with improvements in both total household consumption and nutritional outcomes (proxied by weight and wasting status of children younger than fiveyears old). Key Outcomes or Other Accomplishments Realized: We have raised awareness of this work among academic and policy audiences through presentations, including at the World Bank and the World Agroforestry Center. The work also supported research on multiple MS and dissertation theses, two of which were completed during this reporting period. Finally, the PI was given tenure and a promotion to Associate Professor, in significant part due to the activities supported under this project.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Miller, D.C., J.C. Mu�oz-Mora, L.V. Rasmussen and A. Zezza. 2020. Do trees on farms improve household well-being? Evidence from national panel data in Uganda. Frontiers in Forests and Global Change. 3:101.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Amadu, F.O., P.E. McNamara and D.C. Miller. 2020. Yield effects of climate-smart agriculture aid investment in southern Malawi. Food Policy. 92:101869.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Miller, D.C., P.J. Ordo�ez, S.E. Brown, S. Forrest, N.J. Nava, K. Hughes and K. Baylis. 2020. The impacts of agroforestry on agricultural productivity, ecosystem services, and human well-being in low-and middle-income countries: An evidence and gap map. Campbell Systematic Reviews 16(1): e1066.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Newton, P., A. Kinzer, D.C. Miller, J.A. Oldekop and A. Agrawal. 2020. The number and spatial distribution of forest-proximate people globally. One Earth 3 (3): 363-370.
  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Dikshya Devkota. 2020. Understanding biodiversity conservation funding and the diffusion of transnational gender norms in Bhutan. MS Thesis. Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences. University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Other Year Published: 2020 Citation: Kealie Vogel, Daniel C. Miller and Chris Evans. 2020. Family forest management in a budget-constrained environment. Working paper in prep for journal submission.
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Daniel Miller, Pushpendra Rana, Katia Nakamura, Samantha Forrest, Samantha H. Cheng, Sofia Ahlroth and Emilie Perge. 2019. A systematic review of the impact of forest property rights interventions on poverty. 2019. World Bank Working Paper (and now under review at Global Environmental Change).
  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Roberta Afonso. 2020. The role of the forestry sector in regional economic development: A case study of Minas, Brazil. PhD Dissertation. Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences. University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Other Year Published: 2020 Citation: Brown, S.E., D.C. Miller, P.J. Ordonez and K. Baylis. 2020. Evidence for the impacts of agroforestry on agricultural productivity, ecosystem services, and human well-being in high-income countries: A systematic review. In prep for Environmental Evidence.


Progress 10/01/18 to 09/30/19

Outputs
Target Audience:During the period we reached several different audiences, primarily academic research audiences, but also broader policy audiences.Student audiences were also reached through sharing relevant research results.The total number of people reached is estimated to be at least 240 during this reporting period as follows: Twenty 20 people ata meeting of the GlobalExpert Panel on Forests and Poverty of theInternational Union of Forest Research Organizations (IUFRO) inAnn Arbor, MI in August. Fiftypeople total at three presentations given at the 5thForests and Livelihoods: Assessment, Research, and Engagement (FLARE)Network Conference, Ann Arbor, MI, USA. Presentations were on:A Systematic Review of the Impact of Forest Property Rights Interventions on Poverty;Climate-Smart Agriculture for Environmental Sustainability and Food sScurity: The Case of Southern Malawi;andFamily Forest Management in a Budget-Constrained Environment: Evidence from Southern Illinois Forests. Sixty people at two conferences on agroforestry, the 16thNorth American Agroforestry Conference meeting, Corvallis, Oregon, and the 4th World Congress on Agroforestry, Montpellier, France. Research presented was: A Systematic Map of the Impacts of Agroforestry on Agricultural Productivity, Ecosystem Services, and Human Well-Being. Some 110 people were reached in three presentations at the 4thAnnualForests and Livelihoods: Assessment, Research, and Engagement (FLARE)Network Conference, held October 2018 inCopenhagen, Denmark. Presentation topics were: ASystematic Map of the State of Knowledge on How Forests Contribute to Poverty Alleviation Globally, Predicting Long-Term Social and Ecological Impacts of Forest Plantations in the Indian Himalayas;and Using Machine Learning to Advance Evidence Synthesis on the Impacts of Interventions in Agriculture-Forest Landscapes: Results from a Test of Colandr. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?The project has supported post-graduate, graduate, and undergraduate students whowork closely with the project lead and other experts (e.g. the IUFRO Global Expert Panel, ICRAF on Agroforestry, and the forestry Extension specialist at Dixon Springs for the University of Illinois) to advance their training and knowledge in several areas, notably in conducting a systematic map and review of the literature, carrying out a traditional literature review, and in developing the idea of predictive proxy indicators. The project has also supported professional development primarily in the form of participation in conferences/professional meetings.This includes participation by the PI, a post-doc, two graduate students, and one undergraduate student in key relevant meetings on forests and livelihoods and agroforestry. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Results have been disseminated as follows: peer-reviewed journal articles (7 published; 1 in review); invited workshops (1); conference presentations (8); and updating of user-friendly, open-access data portal (1) and social media (e.g. twitter posts and discussion). What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? In this fourth year of the project we have now completed much of the research planned to reach the overall goal of the project "toadvance knowledge of the socio-economic contribution forests and trees on farms have made in the past and may make in the future."We published a number of the major papers that we expect to come from this work.In all, we published seven (7) peer-reviewed journal articles under this project. These appeared in some of the top field journals related to our topic, includingWorld Development (two publications) and Ecological Economics and Environmental Research Letters.One MS thesis was completed and data and other findings made available online (through portals such aswww.natureandpeopleevidence.org).The peer-review and public availability of our findings and data is the major impact of this work during this reporting period.Below we describe some of the main findings. A major impact this year was to publish a special issue of the journal World Development on "Forests as Pathways to Prosperity."The issue included fivearticles on the topic, including an introduction led by the PI of this project.That introduction and the special issue as a whole seek to broaden discussion of forests globally around the idea of "broader prosperity" rather than narrower terms like "livelihoods" or "poverty."We believe these products will have significant influence on how forests-livelihoods issues are conceived and studied.They will be further amplified through the efforts of the InternationalUnion of Forest Research Organizations (IUFRO) Global Forest Expert Panel on Forests and Poverty, which is undertaking a global assessment on this topic to be released at the UN next year.In part due to this work, the PI of this project was invited to Chair the global assessment. This is an important impact of this project. Another key accomplishment was publication of the article "Machine Learning to Analyze the Social-Ecological Impacts of Natural Resource Policy: Insights from Community Forest Management in the Indian Himalaya," which is the first paper to use machine learning approaches to examine natural resource policy impacts of which we are aware.The approach outlined can be used in many other contexts and we have plans to extend it to look specifically at U.S. forest policy impacts. Finally, we highlight that this project has supported three undergraduate students to do honors research, three master's students (one of whom finished in August 2019), two PhD students, and one post-doc.Without this support their progress toward their degrees would not have been possible, a notable impact itself. Accomplishments - Objective 1: To document the relationship between forests and trees on farms and socio-economic well-being throughout the world. Major Activities Completed: 1) Publication of a review paper on the specific literature on how forests might provide a pathway out of poverty and to greater prosperity in developing countries and set of fiverelated papers as part of a special issue of World Development (now published); 2) Publication of a global systematic map on the impacts of forest-related interventions on poverty; 3) Completion of an evidence gap map of the impacts of agroforestry practices and interventions on agricultural productivity, ecosystem services, and human well-being in low and middle income countries (accepted for publication); and 4) Completion of a parallel map on agroforestry impacts in high income countries like the United States (published). Data Collected: All data collected were reported last year. Summary Statistics and Discussion of Results: We found the following major gaps in the literature we have mapped: 1) Focus on poverty and broader prosperity in relation to forests in developed countries;2) Narrow focus on economic dimensions of human well-being in relation to both forestry and agroforestry interventions and practices;and 3) Lack of evidence on specific interventions to promote forestry and agroforestry to generate positive socio-economic benefits.Other key findings were reported last year when these papers were not yet published. Key Outcomes or Other Accomplishments Realized: The PI was selected to lead the IUFRO global assessment on forests and poverty.This collaboration will amplify research under this project and will lead to additional student and post-doc participation.We have published a number of peer-reviewed papers under this objective, with a couple more planned for next year. Funds have also supported three undergraduate students, one of whom graduated and has gone on to UCLA law school Accomplishments - Objective 2:To increase understanding of the effectiveness of different types of forestry and agroforestry interventions in enhancing socio-economic well-being over the long term. Major Activities Completed: 1) Publication of results froman analytical approach for empirically testing predictive proxy indicators using machine learning, synthetic control methods, and qualitative data gathering, with application to India (two papers published); 2) Publication of two articles looking at the impacts of climate-smart agriculture intervention in Malawi, including on agroforestry dimensions (in two top journals, Ecological Economics and World Development). Work led by PhD student who completed his degree (Festus Amadu); and 3) Completion of new approach to comprehensively map conservation funding with countries, with an application to Peru (paper in prep). Data Collected: For Activity 1, we reviewed the most recent literature on the topic (fortystudies published mostly within the last threeyears) and collated a database with key findings from each study that we synthesized in the published paper.For Activity 1, we compiled a database on a wide range of social and biophysical data on more than 200 forest management areas in the Indian Himalaya from 2000-2017 for analysis.For Activity 2, we compiled data from a household survey of more than 800 households in southern Malawi on adoption and impacts of climate smart agriculture activities.The third activity relied on data collected earlier as part of Nakamura's MS thesis on funding for conservation in Peru and reported in previous years. Summary Statistics and Discussion of Results: For Activity 1,we used a social-ecological framework with optimal matching and Causal Tree-based algorithms to examine causal impacts of two community forest management policies (forest cooperatives and joint state-community partnerships) on vegetation growth in the Indian Himalaya. We find that neither policy had a major impact on average, but there was important heterogeneity in effects conditional on local contextual conditions. For Activity 2, we find a positive and statistically significant yield effect of CSA program participation and the intensity of agroforestry fertilizer trees: maize yields increased, on average, by 20% for participation, and 2% for the intensity of fertilizer trees-a modest but useful result with implications for increasing agricultural productivity among smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa and elsewhere.For Activity 3,the importance of the work is as demonstrable approach that can be replicated outside of Peru, including contexts in the U.S. Key Outcomes or Other Accomplishments Realized: We have raised awareness of this work among academic and policy audiences and produced four published peer-reviewed articles with one paper in review. Again, students working on this topic within our research group have gained valuable support for their studies and in their professional development.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2019 Citation: Miller, D.C. and R. Hajjar. 2019. Forests as Pathways to Prosperity: Empirical Insights and Conceptual Advances. World Development. 104647.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Cheng, S.H., K. MacLeod, S. Ahlroth, S. Onder, E. Perge, P. Shyamsundar, P. Rana, R. Garside, P. Kristjanson, M.C. McKinnon and D.C. Miller. 2019. A Systematic Map of Evidence on the Contribution of Forests to Poverty Alleviation. Environmental Evidence. 8:3.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2020 Citation: Amadu, F.O., P.E. McNamara and D.C Miller. 2020. Understanding the Adoption of Climate-Smart Agriculture: A Farm-Level Typology with Empirical Evidence from Southern Malawi. World Development.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Amadu, F.O., D.C Miller and P.E. McNamara. 2020. Agroforestry as a Pathway to Agricultural Yield Impacts in Climate-Smart Agriculture Investments: Evidence from Southern Malawi. Ecological Economics. 106443.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Rana, P. and D.C. Miller. 2019. Explaining Long-Term Outcome Trajectories in Socialecological Systems. PLOS ONE. 14(4): e0215230.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Rana, P. and D.C. Miller. 2019. Machine Learning to Analyze the Social-Ecological Impacts of Natural Resource Policy: Insights from Community Forest Management in the Indian Himalaya. Environmental Research Letters. 14:2.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Brown, S.E., D.C. Miller, P.J. Ordonez and K. Baylis. 2018. Evidence for the Impacts of Agroforestry on Agricultural Productivity, Ecosystem Services, and Human Well-Being in High-Income Countries: A Systematic Map Protocol. Environmental Evidence. 7:24.


Progress 10/01/17 to 09/30/18

Outputs
Target Audience:During the period we reached several different audiences, including academic research audiences, but also broader landowner, policy and private sector audiences. Student audiences were also reached through sharing relevant research results. The total number of people reached is estimated to be at least 465 during this reporting period as follows: At least 15 people from a poster presentation at the Green Lands, Blue Waters Conference, Madison, WI in November 2017 (on systematic map on the Impacts of Agroforestry on Agricultural Productivity, Ecosystem Services, and Human Well-Being in the U.S. and other high-income countries). At least 15 people through poster presentation at the Natural Areas Conference in Fort Collins, CO in Oct 2017 on efforts to understand the ecological and socio-economic impacts of forest management in southern Illinois. About 50 people at the Forests and Livelihoods: Assessment, Research, and Engagement (FLARE) Network Conference, Stockholm in October 2018 (on mapping the Evidence on the Socio-Economic and Environmental Impacts of Agroforestry in Low- and Middle-Income Countries). About 25 people through a presentation in December 2017 at the International Conference on Global Food Security, Cape Town, South Africa (on farmer adoption of soil and water conservation practices in Malawi and the resulting yield impacts). 50 students were reached through teaching two courses in which relevant research materials were presented and discussed (NRES 325 - Natural Resource Policy and NRES 423 - Politics of International Conservation and Development). About 60 people through presentations in July 2018 at the two leading universities in Benin on the long-term socio-economic impacts of conservation funding for forest protected areas in Benin. About 50 people, including farmers and researchers from the U.S. Midwest and around the world, through discussions and presentation at the 6th Annual Agroforestry Academy in July at the University of Missouri Center for Agroforestry. About 50 People in oral and poster presentations at the Bloomberg Data for Good Exchange Conference, September 2018, New York City (on Machine Learning to Analyze the Social-Ecological Impacts of Natural Resource Policy and Network Analysis as a Tool for Shaping Conservation and Development Policy, both based on cases studies of forest management from northern India). At least 150 people through a keynote address tothe scientific staff of the World Agroforestry Center (ICRAF), Nairobi, Kenya in September 2018 (on Evidence on the Socio-economic and Environmental Impacts of Agroforestry globally). Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? The project has also supported professional development primarily in the form of participation in conferences/professional meetings. This includes participation by the PI, a post-doc, three graduate students, and one undergraduate student in key relevant meetings. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Results have been disseminated as follows: peer-reviewed journal articles (3 published; 3 in review); invited keynote lectures (1); conference presentations (7); agroforestry stakeholder meetings (1); and creation of user-friendly, open-access data portal (1) and social media (e.g. twitter posts and discusssion). What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? This third year of the project was a crucial one in which we completed much of the research planned to reach the overall goal of the project. The focus has been on collating and mapping the evidence on the socio-economic contribution of forests and trees on farms (agroforestry). The major impact of this work is that we now have comprehensive maps of relevant evidence on the impacts of forest conservation and management on poverty and broader prosperity as well as the impacts of agroforestry on human well-being, agricultural productivity, and ecosystem services. Based on the maps we have prepared, researchers, policymakers, and practitioners will have at their fingertips all the evidence on these relationships that is currently available, which they can use to inform future investments, research, and actions. Our maps save enormous time for those interested in these topics by presented the evidence in one, easy to access place (e.g. www.natureandpeopleevidence.org). Some key findings include the following for the evidence base on linkages between forest interventions and different dimensions of poverty. We identified 242 articles for inclusion in the systematic map. The evidence base on forest-based productive activities and poverty alleviation is increasingly rapidly, but displays a number of biases in the distribution of articles on key linkages. For example, few studies looked at poverty-specific linkages in wealthier countries like the United States. The majority of the evidence base (72%) examined links between productivity-enhancement strategies (e.g. forest management) and monetary income and/or social capital outcomes. Non-monetary aspects of poverty have been largely overlooked in the literature. For the evidence base on agroforestry, we have completed the evidence map for developing countries with 394 studies included. Research in this area has grown steadily, from less than 10 relevant studies in 2000 to nearly 50 in 2016. There are hundreds of observational studies on agroforestry practices, but the evidence base on the impacts of agroforestry interventions on farmers' land remains very thin. We know quite a bit about the effect of specific practices farmers may undertake (e.g. intercropping, silvopastoralism, etc.), but very little about the impacts of specific interventions (e.g. provision of seedlings and technical support, etc.) to promote such practices. Finally, we also found that the human well-being outcome most commonly studied related to income and household expenditure. A key impact this year was to present the results of the agroforestry evidence gap map as a keynote to the scientific community of the World Agroforestry Center (ICRAF) in Nairobi, Kenya. That presentation reached more than a 100 leading researchers and policymakers in this field, representing countries around the world. Finally, this project has supported 3 honors Undergraduate students, 2 Master's students, 2 PhD students, and 1 Post-doc. Accomplishments - Objective 1: To document the relationship between forests and trees on farms and socio-economic well-being throughout the world. 1) Major activities completed: 1) completion of global systematic map on impacts of forest-related interventions on poverty; 2) completion of a review paper on how forests might provide a pathway out of poverty and to greater prosperity in developing countries and set ofsix related papers as part of a special issue of World Development; 3) completion of an evidence gap map of the impacts of agroforestry practices and interventions on agricultural productivity, ecosystem services, and human well-being developing countries (in review); and 4) completion of protocol for a parallel map on agroforestry impacts in high income countries like the United States. 2) Data collected: We compiled a database of 242 studies for 1) above, of 150 studies for 2), and 394 studies for 3). 4) is in process. 3) Summary statistics and discussion of results: Top line findings are presented in the impact statement above. In general, we found the following major gaps in the literature we have mapped: 1) focus on poverty and broader prosperity in relation to forests in developed countries, 2) narrow focus on economic dimensions of human well-being in relation to both forestry and agroforestry, and 3) lack of evidence on specific interventions to promote forestry and agroforestry to generate positive socio-economic benefits. 4) Key outcomes or other accomplishments realized: we have raised awareness of this work, including within the leading agroforestry research center in the world (ICRAF), but also much more broadly (see audiences reached section of this report). We have published several peer-reviewed papers now, with a series of further papers expected to be published in 2019 detailing results. Funds have also supported more than a dozen students. Accomplishments - Objective 2: To increase understanding of the effectiveness of different types of forestry and agroforestry interventions in enhancing socio-economic well-being over the long term. 1) Major activities completed: 1) publishing of peer-reviewed journal article on protected areas and the sustainable governance of forest resources globally; 2) further development and testing of an analytical approach for empirically testing predictive proxy indicators using machine learning, synthetic control methods, and qualitative data gathering, with application to India (two papers under review); and 3) completion of new approach to comprehensively map conservation funding with countries, with an application to Peru (paper in review). 2) Data collected: for activity 1, we reviewed the most recent literature on the topic (40 studies published mostly within the last 3 years) and collated a database with key findings from each study that we synthesized in the published paper. For activity 2, we compiled a database on a wide range of social and biophysical data on more than 200 forest management areas in the Indian Himalaya from 2000-2017 for analysis. The third activity relied on data collected earlier as part of Nakamura's MS thesis on funding for conservation in Peru and reported in previous years. 3) Summary statistics and discussion of results: For long-term impacts of forest protected areas (PAs) we find a disconnect between quantitative and qualitative studies of impacts. Quantitative impact evaluations seek to link PA governance to conservation and human well-being outcomes, but qualitative studies primarily detail PA governance, rarely connects it to these outcomes. Neither literature devotes much attention to impacts over long time periods. For activity, 2 we find tremendous promise in the use of machine learning and synthetic control matching to understand long-term impacts of forest and natural resource policies and programs. We will have more to report on this specifically next year when we expect at least two papers on this topic to be published. Finally, on three, the importance of the work is as demonstrable approach that can be replicated outside of Peru. We are currently expanding this work within our research group to map the conservation funding landscape in other developing countries as well as parts of the U.S. (e.g. Illinois). 4) Key outcomes or other accomplishments realized: We have raised awareness of this work among academic and policy audiences and produced one published peer-reviewed paper with three more in review. Again, students working on this topic within our research group have gained valuable support for their studies and in their professional development.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Brown, S.E., D.C. Miller, P.J. Ordonez and K. Baylis. 2018. Evidence for the Impacts of Agroforestry on Agricultural Productivity, Ecosystem Services, and Human Well-Being in High-Income Countries: A Systematic Map Protocol. Environmental Evidence.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Miller, D.C. and Katia S. Nakamura. 2018. Protected Areas and the Sustainable Governance of Forest Resources. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 32:96-103.
  • Type: Other Status: Under Review Year Published: 2019 Citation: Miller, D.C., P.J. Ordonez, S.E. Brown, S. Forrest, N.J. Nava, K. Hughes and K. Baylis. 2019. The Impacts of Agroforestry on Agricultural Productivity, Ecosystem Services, and Human Well-Being in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: An Evidence Gap Map. Oslo, Norway: The Campbell Collaboration.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2018 Citation: Cheng, S. et al. 2018. A Systematic Map of Evidence on the Contribution of Forests to Poverty Alleviation. Environmental Evidence.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2019 Citation: Miller, D.C. and R. Hajjar. 2019. Forests as Pathways to Prosperity: Conceptual Advances and Empirical Insights. World Development.


Progress 10/01/16 to 09/30/17

Outputs
Target Audience:During the period we reached several different audiences, with an emphasis on academic research audiences. The total number of people reached is estimated to be at least 260 during this reporting period as follows: About 20 people during a workshop on land use policy change and durability in October 2016 (invited presentation on predictive proxy indicators). At least 50 people at FLARE conference (on forest livelihoods) in Edinburgh, Scotland in December 2016 (on literature review of how forests may provide pathways out of poverty and to prosperity). The session where we presented about 50 people attended, but our work was highlighted in the closing conference plenary where more than 200 attended. 30 people at Duke University School of Environment in March 2017 (on forest-poverty linkages and predictive proxy indicators). 35 people at the American Association of Geographers Annual Meeting, Boston, April 2017 (on predictive proxy indicators in the forestry sector). 50 people at the Food Security Symposium: Commercial Agriculture in the Tropical Environments in April 2017 at University of Illinois (on agroforestry contributions to food security and other sustainable development goals). 60 people at a symposium on "Critically examining success: Developing inter-disciplinary approaches to measuring conservation outcomes" at the 2017 International Congress for Conservation Biology (ICCB 2017) in Cartagena, Colombia (on predictive proxy indicators). 10 people at the Dixon Springs Agricultural Station of the University of Illinois in August 2017 (presentation to forest stakeholders in southern Illinois on evolution of forest policy andeconomic linkages). 5 people at a workshop at the University of Michigan in August 2017 (on status and revisions to review paper on socio-economic contributions of forests and special issue on this topic under review at the journal World Development). Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?The project has supported post-graduate, graduate, and undergraduate students to work closely with the project lead and other experts (e.g. the forestry Extension specialist at Dixon Springs for the University of Illinois) to advance their training and knowledge in several areas, notably in conducting a systematic map and review of the literature, carrying out a traditional literature review, and in developing the idea of predictive proxy indicators. The project has also supported professional development primarily in the form of participation in conferences/professional meetings. This includes participation by the PI, a post-doc, two graduate students, and one undergraduate student in key relevant meetings. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Results have been disseminated as follows: peer-reviewed journal articles (5); conference presentations (4); workshops (2); invited seminars (1); forestry stakeholder meetings (2); policymaker/funder meetings (2); and through media uptake (e.g. Waldron et al. 2017 covered by at least 19 press outlets) and social media (e.g. twitter posts and discusssion). What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? During this second reporting period for this project we have accelerated previous progress in line with the overall goal of the project. The largest impact this past year is a change in knowledge of the overall effectiveness of funding for forest conservation and biodiversity more generally at a global scale. We published a paper in the journal Nature (Waldron et al. 2017) that found that the almost $15 billion spent on biodiversity conservation globally in the decade after the 1992 Earth Summit prevented a 29% decline in threatened bird and mammal species. This is a major finding that resonated widely. For example, our paper ranks in the top 5% of all research outputs scored by Altmetric, a widely used ranking for the amount of attention scientific research receives (e.g. in the news, blogs, social media, etc.). Besides this topline finding our article has made an impact because it presents a highly accurate model that can be used as a practical policy tool to set international conservation funding goals, adjusting funding amounts needed according to intensity of threats to biodiversity and cost on a country-by-country basis. USDA-NIFA funding under this project was pivotal to facilitating this work as it allowed the lead author of the study to bring the paper to completion as a visiting scholar at the University of Illinois. Two other knowledge impacts are worth highlighting. First, we have published a protocol (Cheng et al. 2017) and finalized a database compiling information from all the studies assessing how forest management and conservation globally contributes to poverty alleviation. This will result in an important change in our knowledge about when and how forests can contribute to reducing poverty and bringing about prosperity. This work is undertakenin concert with the World Bank, a key policy audience that we are seeking to influence. We expect to publish results in early 2018 and will also make them available through an interactive web portal freely available to the public. Second, we published the first peer-reviewed description of the idea of predictive proxy indicators (PPIs). PPIs are measures that can be tracked over the short term but have the potential to predict the longer-term social-ecological impacts of forest conservation and management interventions. Through wide consultation and feedback (see audiences reached section of this report), we increasingly see how important PPIs (for example, if a forest landowner has a forest management plan and, after some time, has actually implemented some key activities within it) can be as a tool for decision-makers in the forestry sector who must justify use of funds to various stakeholders. The reason the tool is useful is that it can provide credible near-term information about the likely benefits of a give intervention even though the benefits may not fully accrue until a longer time has passed. Funding under this project was crucial to realizing both of these results. Finally, we highlight that this project has supported oneUndergraduate student to do honors research, twoMaster's students, twoPhD students, and onePost-doc. Without this support their progress toward their degrees (including one MS student who completed her thesis) would not have been possible. Accomplishments - Objective 1: To document the relationship between forests and trees on farms and socio-economic well-being throughout the world. 1) Major activities completed: 1) publication of systematic review protocols for the socio-economic impacts of interventions in forestry and agroforestry; 2) completion of data collection on the forestry review and significant progress on the agroforestry review; 3) completion of data collection, analysis, and writing of a review of the specific literature on how forests might provide a pathway out of poverty and to greater prosperity in developing countries (this will be submitted as the introduction to a special issue of a journal on this topic in early 2018); and 4) publication of a policy paper on how agroforestry can advance multiple UN Sustainable Development Goals simultaneously. 2) Data collected: For activity 1a we reviewed about 5,750 potentially relevant studies from the peer-reviewed and grey literature and identified 242 articles for the final database. We then extracted a range of data on each article, including basic bibliographic information as well as crucialinformation on study location, study objective, and findings. For activity 2, we reviewed more than 1,000 papers to develop a dataset of 140 empirical studies relevant to the topic. 3) Summary statistics and discussion of results: The results from the literature reviews (activities 1-3 above) are not available yet, but we expect them to be published in 2018 so will report on them in the next period. For activity 4, we found that agroforestry systems can increase yield while also advancing multiple SDGs simultaneously. 4) Key outcomes or other accomplishments realized: we have raised awareness of this work, including at the World Bank's Program on Forests with whom we are collaborating on this effort, but also much more broadly. We have published several peer-reviewed papers. Accomplishments - Objective 2: To increase understanding of the effectiveness of different types of forestry and agroforestry interventions in enhancing socio-economic well-being over the long term. 1) Major activities completed: 1) publishing of peer-reviewed journal article on the effectiveness of conservation funding globally since the 1992 Rio conference and development of a model for predicting future impacts on threatened species of different funding and other scenarios; 2) publishing of peer-reviewed journal article reviewing the broad interdisciplinary literature assessing forest conservation and management impacts on biodiversity conservation, climate change mitigation, and poverty alleviation in developing countries, with special attention to their attention to impacts over the longer term; and 3) development of analytical approach for empirically testing predictive proxy indicators using machine learning, synthetic control methods, and qualitative data gathering. 2) Data collected: For activity 1, we collated biodiversity funding data from more than 100 different sources globally and developed a new way to identify country-level responsibility for conservation of threatened species (biodiversity decline score). We also collected other secondary data on economic cost, development, agricultural expansion, forest cover change, and other variables to create a model explaining change in the status of threatened mammal and bird species worldwide. For activity 2, we reviewed more than 100 potentially relevant papers and included more than 80 in our review. 3) Summary statistics and discussion of results: We have summarized the main results for activity 1 above in the impact statement. For activity 2 we find that the number of impact evaluations of forestry interventions has increased significantly over the past decade, most studies were focused on ecological dimensions (n = 33) with less than half that number focused on the impacts of forestry interventions on human well-being in developing countries (n=15). We also found a disconnect between research based on quasi-experimental designs and studies taking a more critical, ethnographic approach. Finally, we highlight that relative lack of attention to longer-term impacts in these literatures, which sets up the logic for developing methods to assess long-term impacts. 4) Key outcomes or other accomplishments realized: we have raised awareness of this work among academic and policy audiences and published two major relevant peer-reviewed papers. One MS student thesis was completed (Nakamura 2017), with partial support from this project (the student worked as a research assistant on several of the above activities).

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Cheng, S.H., S. Ahlroth, S. Onder, P. Shyamsundar, R. Garside, P. Kristjanson, M.C. McKinnon and D.C. Miller. 2017. What is the evidence for the contribution of forests to poverty alleviation? A systematic map protocol. Environmental Evidence. 6:10.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Miller, D.C., C.B. Wahl�n and P. Rana. 2017. A crystal ball for forests? Analyzing the social-ecological impacts of forest conservation and management over the long term. Environment and Society: Advances in Research. 8: 40-62.
  • Type: Other Status: Accepted Year Published: 2017 Citation: Miller, D.C., P.J. Ordonez, K. Baylis, K. Hughes and P. Rana. 2017. The impacts of agroforestry on agricultural productivity, ecosystem services and human well-being in low- and middle-income countries: Protocol for an evidence and gap map. Oslo, Norway: The Campbell Collaboration.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Waldron, A., D.C. Miller, D. Redding, A.O. Mooers, T.S. Kuhn, N. Nibbelink, J.T. Roberts, J. Tobias and J.L. Gittleman. 2017. Reductions in global biodiversity loss predicted from conservation spending. Nature.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Waldron, A., Garrity, D., Malhi, Y., Girardin, C., Miller, D.C. and Seddon, N. 2017. Agroforestry can enhance food security while meeting other sustainable development goals. Tropical Conservation Science. 10: 1-6.
  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Nakamura, K. 2017. Mapping the funding landscape for biodiversity conservation in Peru. MS Thesis, Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences. University of Illinois.


Progress 03/02/16 to 09/30/16

Outputs
Target Audience:During the period we reached primarily an academic research audience, though some conservation NGO and policymaking organization staff were reached. The total number of people reached is about 120 during this reporting period as follows: 15 people at the American Association of Geographers Annual Meeting, San Francisco, April 2016 (on predictive proxy indicators in the forestry sector). 100 people at the North American Congress on Conservation Biology, Madison, WI (on the role of social science to advance forest conservation). 5 people at a workshop at the University of Michigan in April 2016 (on design of review paper on socio-economic contributions of forests). Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?This work contributed to the training and professional development of one Undergraduate student, oneMS student, one PhD student and one Post-doc. The primary means for these accomplishments was through hands-on participation in the research under this project. Notably, all students and post-docs have gained a familiarity and understanding of the systematic mapping and systematic review methodologies, which were new to them. They have each worked one-on-one and as a group with the project lead. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Results have been disseminated as follows: Conference presentations (2), workshops (1), submitted papers (1), working papers (1), and social media (twitter) postings and discussion. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? During this first reporting period we have made significant progress in line with the overall goal of the project "to advance knowledge of the socio-economic contribution forests and trees on farms have made in the past and may make in the future."It is still too early for any major impacts, but we have made some notable achievements as described in more detail under each objective below. First, we have produced a working paper developing the idea of "predictive proxy indicators" - measures of outcomes taken during the implementation of a project, program, or policy that predict longer-term impacts - for the forestry sector. We presented this paper to about 40 people at seminars/conferences at the University of Illinois and externally. Second, we also raised awareness, generally, of how social science theory, methods, and evidence can advance forest conservation objectives, primarily to an audience of about 100 at the North American Congress on Conservation Biology annual meeting. Third, we have also developed and piloted an approach for systematic maps of the literature on the socio-economic contributions of various kinds of forest and agroforestry interventions. Finally, we have supported one Master's student, one PhD student, and one Post-doc during this period, a notable impact in itself. Accomplishments - Objective 1: To document the relationship between forests and trees on farms and socio-economic well-being throughout the world. 1) Major activities completed: 1) development of draft systematic review protocols for the socio-economic impacts of interventions in forestry andagroforestry; and 2) development and implementation of an approach to review the specific literature on how forests might provide a pathway out of poverty and to greater prosperity in developing countries. 2) Data collected: For activity 2, we reviewed more than 1,000 papers to develop a dataset of 140 empirical studies relevant to the topic. 3) Summary statistics and discussion of results: This work is too early to have results yet, but we will during the next reporting period. 4) Key outcomes or other accomplishments realized: We have raised awareness of this work, including at the World Bank's Program on Forests, 3ie, and the World Agroforestry Center,with whom we are collaborating on this effort. Accomplishments - Objective 2: To increase understanding of the effectiveness of different types of forestry and agroforestry interventions in enhancing socio-economic well-being over the long term. 1) Major activities completed: 1) development and submission for peer-review at a journal of a paper reviewing the broad interdisciplinary literature assessing forest conservation and management impacts on biodiversity conservation, climate change mitigation, and poverty alleviation in developing countries, with special attention on impacts over the longer term; 2) draft approach for empirically testing some predictive proxy indicators, including a conceptual model of where indicators may fit in assessment of forestry interventions over time. 2) Data collected: For activity 1, we reviewed more than 100 potentially relevant papers and included more than 80 in our review. 3) Summary statistics and discussion of results: While the number of impact evaluations of forestry interventions is increasing significantly over the past decade, we found most studies were focused on ecological dimensions (n = 33). Through mid-2016, we could identify only 15 relevant studies focused on the impacts of forestry interventions on human well-being in developing countries. We also found a disconnect between research based on quasi-experimental designs and studies taking a more critical, ethnographic approach. Finally, we highlight that relative lack of attention to longer-term impacts in these literatures, which sets up the logic for developing methods, as we are doing in this project, to assess long-term impacts. 4) Key outcomes or other accomplishments realized: We have raised awareness of this work among academic audiences and produced one paper submitted to a journal.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2017 Citation: Miller, D.C., C.B. Wahl�n and P. Rana. 2017. A Crystal Ball for Forests? Analyzing the Social-Ecological Impacts of Forest Conservation and Management over the Long Term.