Source: VIRGINIA POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTE submitted to NRP
FOREST RESILIENCE TO CLIMATE CHANGE: A DENDROCLIMATIC ASSESSMENT OF TREES WITH COMMERCIAL AND CONSERVATION VALUE
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
COMPLETE
Funding Source
AFRI COMPETITIVE GRANT
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
1008798
Grant No.
2016-67003-24944
Cumulative Award Amt.
$427,500.00
Proposal No.
2015-08461
Multistate No.
(N/A)
Project Start Date
Mar 1, 2016
Project End Date
Feb 28, 2019
Grant Year
2016
Program Code
[A3144]- Climate Resilient Land Use for Agriculture and Forestry
Recipient Organization
VIRGINIA POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTE
(N/A)
BLACKSBURG,VA 24061
Performing Department
For Resources & Environ Consrv
Non Technical Summary
The 331 million hectares of forest and woodland in the United States produces $7 billion in annual revenue of forest products and provides clean water, carbon storage, soil formation and stabilization, and wildlife habitat. The President's Climate Action Plan calls for preparing the U.S. for impacts of climate change by using sound science to protect our natural resources. The proposed research matches both the President's Plan and the USDA NIFA AFRI Program Area (A3144) on Climate Resilient Land Use for Agriculture and Forestry. The project's objective is to use dendroclimatology and forecast models to predict the resilience of ten tree species to climate change scenarios. Black spruce, Douglas-fir, eastern hemlock, Alaska birch, pinyon pine, ponderosa pine, sugar maple, quaking aspen, white bark pine and white oak tree-ring chronologies archived by project directors will be combined with datasets available on the International Tree-Ring Database to establish the biological foundation of how the growth of a tree species is limited by climate using standard dendroclimatic techniques. The models of tree growth response to climate will be used to forecast tree growth under the most recent climate forecasts produced by CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5), forced with three different emission scenarios for the 21st Century. In species where climatic-growth relationships may be altered due to management, insects, or disease, separate models will be created to identify whether these modications alter tree response to climate change. This approach will deliver a national-level strategy to assess resilience of trees to climate change.
Animal Health Component
50%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
50%
Applied
50%
Developmental
0%
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
12304301070100%
Knowledge Area
123 - Management and Sustainability of Forest Resources;

Subject Of Investigation
0430 - Climate;

Field Of Science
1070 - Ecology;
Goals / Objectives
Goal:The long-term goal of this project is to provide scientifically-based predictions about the how the stress of climate change will alter tree growth and survival for ten species with high commercial and conservation value.Objectives:(1) Identify the sensitivity of tree growth in 10 tree species (black spruce, Douglas-fir, eastern hemlock, Alaska birch, pinyon pine, ponderosa pine, sugar maple, quaking aspen, whitebark pine, and white oak) to climatic variation using dendroclimatology and existing tree-ring datasets.(2) Contrast three different climate change scenarios to evaluate the potential impact of predicted changes in temperature, precipitation, and drought on species-level tree growth and survival.(3) For species of commercial importance, examine whether forest management practices can promote resiliency to climate variability(4) For species of conservation concern, identify changes in dendroclimatic relationships that result from infestation by insects or disease
Project Methods
Methods:Three sources of tree-ring data will be employed for "Forest resilience to climate change: A dendroclimatic assessment of trees with commercial and conservation value": 1) publically-available data from the ITRDB, 2) tree-ring data from collections owned by the Project Directors, and 3) new tree-ring samples collected during this project. All tree-ring width data on ITRDB has been cross-dated and includes metadata that reports the location and elevation of the sampling location. A majority of the tree-ring data archived by the Project Directors has been measured, but some sample sites will need to be cross-dated and measured. The new samples collected during this project will need to be processed, cross-dated and measured (Speer 2010, Yamaguchi 1991). At each site, the crossdating of tree-ring measurements will be verified with a computer program (COFECHA) that correlates wide and narrow ring width measurements to maximize the common pattern (Grissino-Mayer 2001). Once all datasets have complete, cross-dated, tree-ring measurements, at each site the raw tree-ring measurements for each tree will be detrended to strengthen the common climate signal and remove the signals related to forest competition and age-related growth trends (Fritts 1976). These detrended tree-level data will be averaged to develop a standardized tree-ring master chronology that will represent site-level growth patterns (Fritts 1991).Standardized tree-ring master chronologies will be developed for each sample site and some of these may be able to be combined (within a species) if the sites are recording similar signals. Multivariate analysis (i.e., principal components analysis) (Legendre and Legendre 2012) will be conducted on the tree-ring master chronologies to identify similarities in growth patterns and sites sharing similar growth patterns in the ordination will be combined for further analysis. Annual-resolution, regional climate data will be correlated with the tree-ring master chronologies to identify significant relationships between tree growth and climate. Each site master chronology will be correlated with primary climate variables including mean monthly temperature and total monthly precipitation available from the NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access) and spatially interpolated for the sites geographical coordinates (latitude, longitude, and elevation) using data from the PRISM Climate Group (http://www.prism.oregonstate.edu/, Daly 2008). At some locations, tree growth may have weak relationships with climate; however, we plan to retain these sites in analysis because although tree growth at these sites may have been principally limited by competition or other environmental signals, under different future scenarios, climate may become more limiting to growth. Secondary climatic variables will be derived from the primary climatic variables. In particular, a monthly Climate Moisture Index (CMI) will be calculated as precipitation subtract potential evapotranspiration (PET) where PET is a function of temperature and provides a measure of net water balance. CMI is thus a synthetic variable that combines the effect of both precipitation and temperature on moisture regimes (Hogg 1997). Monthly climate data will also be seasonalized into 3-month periods (averages of temperature and sums of precipitation and CMI) to assess radial growth sensitivity to seasonal climatic factors. Tree-ring master chronologies that are significantly correlated to climate, will be used to develop species and regional-specific multiple regression models that predict tree-ring growth from the climatic variables that were identified as limited to tree growth. Model parisomy will be achieved by minimizing Akaike's information criterion (AIC) (Venables and Ripley (Burnham and Anderson 2002).These regression models will be used to forecast tree growth for the 21st century under the most recent climate forecasts produced by CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) (Taylor et al. 2012, IPCC 2013). The three climate scenarios (i.e., Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)) represent three different carbon dioxide emission scenarios for the 21st Century: 1) a decrease in emissions through a strong mitigation scenario (RCP2.6), 2) a steady state emissions scenario (RCP4.5), and 3) a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5). These future scenarios of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases is dependent on socio-economic and technology assumptions as well as the degree of implementation of adaptation and mitigation policies to achieve certain emission targets. These emissions scenarios are named after the level of radiative forcing reached by the end of the 21st century (e.g., a radiative forcing of 8.5 W m-2 is reached under the RCP8.5 scenario). The predicted growth response of the trees will be interpreted as the climatic resilience to climate change that is likely to occur in that tree species in that region. Trees predicted to experience substantial reductions in annual productivity will be classified as trees at high risk.In species where dendroclimatic relationships may have been altered due to management, insects, or disease, separate growth models will be developed to identify whether these modified conditions altered tree response to climate change. In these situations, the residual difference in growth estimated by the climatic model and the observed radial growth index will be examined for any linear or non-linear trends over time (Wang et al. 2006).

Progress 03/01/16 to 02/28/19

Outputs
Target Audience:We reached K-12 educators and administrators by presenting the results of this project through two venues: (1) the 2018 North Carolina Geographic Alliance Geo-Inquiry Leadership Institute at the North Carolina Center for Academic Teachingin Ocracoke, North Carolinaheld June 28-30, 2018 and attended by 20 middle school geography and library science secondary level educators; and (2) The 2017 North Carolina Geographic Alliance Geo-Inquiry Leadership Institute at the National Humanities Center in Durham, North Carolina held on June 28, 2017 and attended by 20 K-12 educators, Ms. LaTanya Pattillo (Educator Advisor to North Carolina's Governor), andMr. Andy Mink (Vice President of the National Humanities Center). We reached undergraduates in the the classroomby incorporating findings from this study into courses taught by the Project Directors. Two examples include: (1) Dr. Saskia van de Gevelincorporated results from her research on climate impacts to white bark pine growth and survival inher GHY1012 GlobalChange of the Biosphere and has reachedover 300 undergraduate students with this content. The inclusion ofthe USDA-funded research into her teaching has been recognizedand Dr. van de Gevelwas awarded a Board of Governors Appalachian State University Campus Excellence in Teaching Award. (2) Dr. Carolyn Copenheaver incorporated a new three-week assignment for students to analyze the dendroclimatic relationship in sugar maple across its geographic range from datasets collected through this USDA-funded research. The inclusion of real-world issues into the classroom was recognized and Dr. Copenheaver was awarded the 2018 Society of American Foresters Carl Alwin Schenck Award for outstanding performance in the field of forestry education. We targeted undergraduates from underrepresented groups with the Project Directors, Dr. Ketia Shumaker and Dr. Carolyn Copenheaver, hosting two African American female undergraduates from the University of West Alabama in a 10-week summer research internshipwith Virginia Tech's Multicultural Academic Opportunity Program. These two undergraduatesconducted researchrelated to the goals of this project for their summerinternship. We reached professional natural resource managers by speaking at workshops attended by federal and private foresters. Project Director, Dr. Glenn Juday spoke on "Aspen growth rate collapse and mortality from high temperatures, drought, and insect attack" at the Society of American Foresters Alaska CFE Professional Workshop held in Fairbanks, Alaska in September 2017; Project Direct, Dr. Margaret Evans participated in the USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis Stakeholder Science Meeting in Park City, Utah in October 2017; and Project Director, Dr. Sophan Chhin spoke at the Society of American Foresters National Convention in Portland, Oregon in October 2018. We reached academic and government researchers with presentations at national meetings and publications in technical journals read by researchers within the discipline.For example, Dr. Sophan Chhin presented overall project results to the USDA Climate and Agroecology Project Director's Meeting held December 7, 2018 in Washington, DC and Dr. Margaret Evans published an article in Nature Communications in 2018 presenting the results of her work with southwestern tree responses to climate. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?The Project Directors provided training for professionals and communicated results at the North Carolina Geographic Alliance Geo-Inquiry Leadership Institute, the Society of American Foresters Certified Forester Workshop, and the USDA Forest Service FIA Stakeholder Meeting. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?To increase interest in and create recruitment pipelines for young people from underrepresented groups to pursue careers in natural resources and environmental science, we spoke with K-12 educators in a train-the-trainer approach and had the undergraduates who participated in the research for this project present their results at a symposium hosted for undergraduates from underrepresented groups, the Multicultural Academic Opportunity Programs Research Symposium. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Determining climatic sensitivity and coupled impacts ofinsect infestations: Aspen on productive sites in Interior Alaska has experienced a major growth decline due to historically low climate suitability (warm/dry) just as white spruce has, and aspen has experienced an historically unprecedented sustained outbreak of aspen leaf miner that has very significantly reduced its growth. The birch results are broadly similar with respect to climate, with some notable differences. A new invasive insect, amber-marked birch leaf miner, is slowly spreading and reducing its growth. Black spruce has some populations with positive growth responses to increasing temperatures, but mostly negative. It is so chemically well defended that herbivory is less of a problem than in other tree species. In whitebark pinethe increase in drought frequency and severity predicted to result from continued climate change may amplify existing threats to whitebark pine populations by changing biological processes, reducing whitebark pine productivity, and increasing stress, collectively reducing whitebark pine resiliency to mountain pine beetle infestations and white pine blister rust infections. Climatic sensitivity and potential growth under climate change scenarios Ponderosa pine revealed sensitivity to summer heat stress and cold winters with projections of significant decreases in growth under future climate change scenarios related to increases in temperature. Eastern hemlock experiences significant reductions in stem growth in year's with growing season frosts; as winter temperatures become more mild and eastern hemlock are able to begin photosynthesis earlier in the calendar year, frosts will have a larger negative impact on growth. Methodological advances A comparison of tree-ring data archived on the International Tree Ring Data Bank (ITRDB) with tree-ring data collected through the USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis program identified a bias in climate sensitivity with ITRDB data overestimating regional forest climate sensitivity by 41-59%.Given many researchers employ ITRDB data to project climate change impacts on forests, this bias was important to quantify for placing predictions in context. A comparison of dendroclimatic response of sugar maple, white oak, andeastern hemlock across its geographic range identified a site specific responses in thesethree late successional tree species, which indicates using traditional forecasting models developed for open-grown, early successional tree species is not appropriate for for late successional tree species.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Klesse, S., DeRose, R.J., Guiterman, C.H., Lynch, A.M., O'Conner, C.D., Shaw, J.D., and Evans, M.E.K. 2018. Sampling bias overestimates climate change impacts on forest growth in the southwestern United States. Nature Communications 9:5336.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Copenheaver, C.A. and Shumaker, K.L. 2018. Summer undergraduate research internships on dendroclimatology: Successes and lessons learned. Biennial Conference on University Education in Natural Resources. March 8-10, 2018. Stephen F. Austin State University, Nacogdoches, TX.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Chhin, S., Copenheaver, C.A., Evans, M.E.K., Juday, G.P., Shumaker, K.L., and van de Gevel, S. 2018. A dendroclimatic assessment of trees with commercial and conservation value. USDA NIFA Climate and Agroecology Project Director's Meeting. December 7, 2018. Washington, DC.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Harris, M.L., Shumaker, K.L., and Copenheaver, C.A. 2018. Temporal changes in the relationship between climate and radial growth of sugar maple. Multicultural Academic Opportunity Program Undergraduate Research Symposium. July 27, 2018. Blacksburg, VA.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Bendolph, K.E., Shumaker, K.L., and Copenheaver, C.A. 2018. Dendroclimatic relationships across the geographic range of sugar maple. Multicultural Academic Opportunity Program Undergraduate Research Symposium. July 27, 2018. Blacksburg, VA.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Coley, A.S., Shumaker, K.L., and Copenheaver, C.A. 2017. Radial growth response of conifers and deciduous trees to growing-season frosts in Michigan. Multicultural Academic Opportunity Program Undergraduate Research Symposium. July 28, 2017. Blacksburg, VA.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Fowler, L.A., Copenheaver, C.A., and Shumaker, K.L. 2017. Dendroclimatic response of eastern hemlock at lakeshore and interior sites. Multicultural Academic Opportunity Program Undergraduate Research Symposium. July 28, 2017. Blacksburg, VA.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Butcher, B.M., Shumaker, K.L., and Copenheaver, C.A. 2016. Evidence of climate change: reduction in sugar maple growth. Multicultural Academic Opportunity Program Undergraduate Research Symposium. July 29, 2016. Blacksburg, VA.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Byrd, I.T., Shumaker, K.L., and Copenheaver, C.A. 2017. Differences in frequency and intensity of canopy disturbances across the range of eastern hemlock. Multicultural Academic Opportunity Program Undergraduate Research Symposium. July 28, 2017. Blacksburg, VA.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Allen, I., Chhin, S., Zhang, J. 2018. Evaluating post-fire plantation restoration in the mixed conifer forests of the Sierra Nevada. 2018 National Convention of the Society of American Foresters. Portland, Oregon. October 3-7, 2018.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Allen, I., Chhin, S., Zhang, J. 2018. Evaluation of plantation restoration in the mixed conifer forests of the Sierra Nevada. Maryland/Delaware Society of American Foresters Conference. Cumberland, Maryland. November 1, 2018.


Progress 03/01/17 to 02/28/18

Outputs
Target Audience:We addressed three target audiences during the reporting period: (1) Environmental policy decision makers; (2) Forest managers; and (3) Scientific and academic collaborators in complementary fields. As an example of reaching out to policy makers, Dr. Glenn Juday (co-Project Director) briefed the Chair of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee and members in Washington, DC on climate sensitivity of boreal forests and sustainability on March 3, 2017; Dr. Juday helped set up programs on environmental and energy matters meetins in Bismark, North Dakota and Banff, Alberta held in June and November 2017, respectively; andDr. Juday contributedto the agenda for the 2018 Federal Energy and Environmental Matters Conference in Washington, DC. in Mary 2017.As examples of reaching out to forest managers, three project directors (Drs. Chhin, Copenheaver, and Juday) spoke at the Society of American Foresters Annual Meeting in Madison Wisconsin; Dr. Juday was the principal plenary speaker and field trip leader for a three-day Society of American Foresters workshop focused on aspen; and Dr. Margaret Evans (co-Project Director) spoke at the USDA Forest Service Forests Inventory and Analysis Stakeholder Science Meeting in October 2017 in Utah. As examples of reaching scientificand academic audiences from audiences beyond natural resources, Dr. Ketia Shumaker (co-Project Director)presented project results atthe 2017 American Society for Plant Biologist Conference in Hawaii; Dr. Saskia vande Gevel (co-Project Director) presented project results at theAnnual Meeting of the Association of American Geographers in Nevada; andDr. Margaret Evans present project results at the 2017 Ecological Society of America's Annual Meeting in Oregon. Changes/Problems:The tree-ring record provides us the window to see how trees respond to different climatic conditions under past times. One of the limitations of this approach is that the maximum lifespan of trees limits the historical window for evaluation. We hadtheunplanned opportunity to work with white oak logs, which had been preserved in a cabin in the Appalachian Mountains. This unique situation allowed us to extend our white oak tree-ring data beyond the original intent of this project. Dr. Carolyn Copenheaver (Project Director) presented the results of this unexpected dataset at the North American Forest Ecology Workshop in Edmonton, Alberta. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Project directorspresented resultsof their research at two professional development workshops hosted for forest managers. Dr. Glenn Juday spoke on "Aspen growth rate collapse and mortality from high temperatures, drought, and insect attack" at the Alaska Society of American Foresters CFE Professional Workshop in Fairbanks-Tok, Alaska in September 2017 and Dr. Margaret Evans participated in the USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Stakeholder Science Meeting in Park City, Utah in October 2017. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? Nothing Reported What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?During the third year, we need to begin the forecasting stage of the project. We have provided the foundational research to document how trees have responded to changes in the climate historically and the next stage will be to apply these relationships to forecasting models to predict how these species will respond under predicted climate change regimes.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Scientists predict that forests and individual tree species will have a range in resilience to current and future changes in climate and environment.Reseachers from Alaska to Arizona to Alabamahave combined efforts to identify the resilience to environmental change of ten species of commercial and conservation importance. We are already able to differentiate among resilience of tree species. Trees growing atthe geographic limitsof their range (both in terms of latitude and elevation) appear to be suffering the highest rates of mortality and decline. When climate-caused stress is combined with insect outbreaks, as seen in Dr. van de Gevel's workwith whitebark pine,substantial declines in tree populations becomes evident. Drought is themost stressful environmental factor that results in reductions in tree growth. This stressor has been shown to negatively impact trees in boreal forestsin Alaska,deciduous species in the eastern deciduousforests, and conifers in western forests.We havethat in some forest systems, usingdifferent management approaches may be able to reduce the negative impacts of drought on forests. As an example, Dr.Chhin'swork on planting spacing in pine plantations in California has shown that if seedlings are planted in clustersrather than spaced out in even rows, the seedlings create amicroclimate that retains moistureat the local site and reduces drougth-caused mortality of seedlings.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Morimoto, M., Juday, G.P., Young, B. 2017. Clearcutting and site preparation, but not planting promoted early tree regeneration in boreal Alaska. Forests 8:doi:10.3390/f8010012.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Wilmking, M., Burasa, A., Eusemann, P., Schnittler, M., Trouillier, M., Wurth, D., Langea, J., van der Maaten,-Theunissen, M., Juday, G.P. 2017. High frequency growth variability of white spruce clones does not differ from non-clonal trees at Alaskian treelines. Dendrochronologia 44:187-192.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Juday, G.P. 2017. Climate and changing Arctic region: lessons from the past, current realities, future needs. University of Paris Pantheon-Sorbonne, Maison de l'Archeologie et de l'Ethnologie, Nanterre, France. November 16, 2017.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2017 Citation: Butcher, B.M., Shumaker, K.L., and Copenheaver, C.A. 2017. Investigating sugar maple's sensitivity to precipitation for dendroclimatic studies. American Society for Plant Biologists Conference. Honolulu, Hawaii.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Copenheaver, C.A. and Pulice, M. 2017. Dendroarchaeology reveals influence of early-European settlement on forest disturbance regimes in Virginia. North American Forest Ecology Workshop. Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. June 18-22, 2017
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: van de Gevel, S., Larson, E., and Grissino-Mayer, H.D. 2017. Separating trends in whitebark pine radial growth related to climate and mountain pine beetle outbreaks in the Northern Rocky Mountains. Forests 8:195.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2018 Citation: Kaiser, A. and van de Gevel, S. 2018. Comparing whitebark pine radial growth response to climate variables in the Cascades and Sierra Nevada, USA. Annual Meeting of the Association of American Geographers Conference. April 10-13, 2018.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Zhang, J., Allen, I. Subedi, M., and Chhin, S. 2017. Post-fire management regimes on plantation growth and development: Can we find effective tools to quickly restore a resilient forest. Amador-Calaveras Concensus Group Monitoring and Science Symposium. Jackson, California. November 8, 2017.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Allen, I., Chhin, S., and Zhang, J. 2017. Evaluating post-fire restoration in the mixed conifer forest of the Sierra Nevada using plantations. Forest Regenerating in Changing Environments. Corvallis, Oregon. July 11-13, 2017.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Evans, M.E.K., Falk, D.A, Arizpe, A., Swetnam, T., Babst, F., Holsinger, K.E. 2017. Fusing tree-ring and forest inventory data to infer influences on tree growth. Ecosphere 8:e01889.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Evans, M.E.K., DeRose, R.J., Arizpe, A.H., Aragon, J.D., Gray, A.T., Pillet, M.D., Shaw, J.D., Klesse, S., and Dietze, M.C. 2017. Assimiliation of tree-ring and forest inventory data to understand the influences of climate, tree size, and stand density on tree growth: a regional analysis of Pinus ponderosa. Ecological Society of America Annual Meeting. Portland Oregon, August 2017.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Allaby, A., Juday, G.P., and Young, B. 2017. Early white spruce regeneration treatments increase birch and reduce aspen after 28 years: Toward an integrated management of boreal post-fire salvaged stands. Forest Ecology and Management 403:79-95.


Progress 03/01/16 to 02/28/17

Outputs
Target Audience:(1) Fellow scientists, faculty (2) Academic peers/researchers (3) Natural resources and forestry associations Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Two African American undergraduates from the University of West Alabama were mentored by Copenheaver and Shumaker as a part of Virginia Tech's Multicultural Academic Opportunity Program's Undergraduate Summer Research Internship. As part of this summer program, students conducted research on the dendroclimatic response of sugar mapleand received professional mentoring fromU.S. Forest Service researchers at the AlleghenyNational Forest and the Directors of the Virginia Forestry Association. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Evans, served as one of six invited plenary speakers at Harvard University's Climate, Ecology, and Tree Growth Workshop. This workshop convened scientists who areconducting research atthe intersection of climate and forest growth. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?1) Juday has cordinated with the journal, Forests, to serve as a Guest Editor for a Special Issue titled, "New Insights into Climate Sensitivity of Forest Growth, Health, and Disturbance: Vulnerability, Resilience, and Change." The deadline for submission of articles for this Special Issue is May 10, 2017. 2) Chhin has collected increment cores from Ponderosa pine in Sequoia National Forest and El Dorado National Forest. This year, he will work with a gradaute student and post-doctoral researcher to analyze these samples and to document the relationship between Ponderosa pine growth and climate. 3) Shumaker will recruit two new African American undergraduates from the University of West Alabama to participate in Virginia Tech's Multicultural Academic Opportunity Program's Summer Research Internship. This summer, Copenheaver and Shumaker will directthe undergraduate researchersas theyexamine the impact of climate on dendroclimatic response in eastern hemlock. 4) Evans will supervise a post-doctoral researcher who is compiling tree-ring data for Douglas fir for a range-wide analysis of climate sensitivities and forecasting of future growth under future climate change scenarios.They plan to explore the use ofGeneralized Additive Modelsto capture potential non-linear responses of sensitivities across climatic conditions.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? 1) Research conducted this yearby Copenheaver and Shumaker documented that tapping trees for maple syrup production alters the dendroclimatic response of sugar maple trees during the spring period of sap extraction. Additionally,stem growth ofsugar maple is becoming more sensitive to precipitation. These results showcase the potential impact of climate change on an important agroforestry industry and timber species. 2) Research conducted this year by van de Gevel successfully differentiated between the impacts on tree growth in white bark pine caused by climate vs. mountain pine beetle. White park pine has been identified as a potential candidate for the endangered species list and therefore, separating the impact of two potential threats to this species is a important scientific break through.

Publications

  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Juday, G.P., Trouillier, M. and Morimoto, M. Resilience and vulnerability of Artic and boreal ecosystems: key mechanisms and habitats. American Geophysical Union. December 12-16,2016. San Francisco, CA.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Morimoto, M., Juday, G.P. and Huettmann, F. 2016. Continuing climate warming will result in failure of post-harvest natural regeneration across the landscape of interior Alaska. American Geophysical Union. December 12-16, 2016. San Francisco, California
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Evans, M., Holsinger, K., Arizpe, A., Swetnam, T., Babst, F., and Falk, D. 2016. Combining tree-ring and forest plot data to infer climate niche: a hierarchical Bayesian approach. AmeriDendro 2016. March 28-April 1, 2016. Mendoza, Argentina.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Evans, M. 2016. Forecasting future tree growth from tree-ring data, and combining tree-ring and forest inventory data. Climate, Ecology, and Tree Growth Workshop. September 25-30, 2016. Harvard University, Petersham, Massachusetts.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2017 Citation: Copenheaver, C.A., Dawson, D.E., Garza M.N., and Nemens, D.G. 2017. Denndroclimatic responses of sugar maple tapped for maple syrup: A case study from Pennsylvania. Tree-Ring Research (in press).
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Evans, M.E.K., Merow,C., Record, S., McMahon, S.M., and Enquist, B.J. 2016. Towards process-based range modeling of many species. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 31(11):860-871.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Charney, N.D., Babst, F., Poulter, B., Record, S., Trouet, V.M., Frank, D., Enquist, B.J., and Evans, M.E.K. 2016. Observed forest sensitivity to climate implies large changes in 21st century North American forest growth. Ecology Letters doi: 10.1111/ele.12650