Source: UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, DAVIS submitted to
ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS TO ANIMAL PRODUCTION, TRADE AND THE CONTROL AND ERADICATION OF ANIMAL DISEASE
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
TERMINATED
Funding Source
HATCH
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
1008533
Grant No.
(N/A)
Project No.
CA-D-ARE-6585-H
Proposal No.
(N/A)
Multistate No.
(N/A)
Program Code
(N/A)
Project Start Date
Oct 28, 2015
Project End Date
Sep 30, 2018
Grant Year
(N/A)
Project Director
Jarvis, L.
Recipient Organization
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, DAVIS
410 MRAK HALL
DAVIS,CA 95616-8671
Performing Department
Agricultural and Resource Economics
Non Technical Summary
Research and outreach on this project will focus on three projects: 1) estimating the economic impact of food and mouth disease (FMD) on international beef trade, 2) analyzing the reasons for the relatively limited use of rbST in US dairy herds, and 3) analyzing the scope for voluntary Regional Cooperative Programs (RCPs) to control PRRS in the swine industry. 1) The Effect of Foot and Mouth Disease, Importer Sanitary Policy and Implicit Commercial Policy on Beef Trade Flows and Export Prices in International Markets. I employ a two stage model to analyze the effects of FMD on international beef trade, considering FMD status of exporter and of importer, importer FMD sanitary policy, and other determinants of bilateral trade in beef. Combining the results from the two steps, I estimate the effect of FMD status in the exporting country on the export price obtained for 1990-2002, which provided the first direct econometric measurements of the effects of FMD on international beef prices.The purpose of the additional study is to 1) extend the data series to 2010, providing 20 years of observation (monthly data) and to analyze how the rapid expansion of beef trade during the last decade has affected the results, 2) further explore the difference in the results from the restricted and the global models, and 3) better identify the causes of the observed differences in the prices obtained by exporters in different markets, and 4) identify the effects of FMD-caused changes in trade flows on economic losses from FMD in both exporting and importing countries. Refinement of the results is important for identifying the effects of FMD on international trade. 2) Profitability and Uncertainty in the Adoption of rbST in US Dairy Herds. When developed in the late 1970s, recombinant bovine somatotropin (rbST) was one of the first biotechnology products in the agricultural industry. By transferring the gene responsible for somatotropin production in a cow to a bacterium and allowing the genetically altered bacterium to replicate many times over, scientists were able to produce commercial quantities of the growth hormone that could be injected into cows to stimulate milk production. After many years of controversy and testing, rbST was approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for commercial use in the U.S. in 1993. Monsanto introduced the product as Posilac in 1994. At the time of its introduction, several studies predicted that rbST would be a highly profitable technology at the farm level and most studies predicted that it would be adopted by a majority of dairy producers and would significantly increase production, possibly causing significant economic disruption to the dairy industry. That has not happened, primarily because rbSt has not been widely adopted.RbST has now been in use for 14 years. Although most new technologies have diffusion processes that require two decades or more for a ceiling use to be achieved, rbST use appears to have reached a much lower ceiling than initially predicted. Farm use of rbST at the national level leveled off about seven years after the product became commercially available and the proportion of dairies using rbST has remained nearly constant at approximately 17 percent for about 11 years. The number of cows treated has remained constant at about 33 percent of all dairy cows in the U.S.My research on this topic, carried out jointly with Leslie Butler (UC Davis) and Henry An (University of Alberta, Canada) analyzes the factors that have influenced farmer use of this biotechnology.3) Economic Analysis of Controlling PRRS via Volunteer Regional Cooperative Programs. PRRS is a highly contagious syndrome characterized by reproductive disorders in sows and respiratory disease in growing pigs, first reported in the US in the late 1980s and caused by the virus PRRSV (Perez, et al., 2015). PRRS does not affect human health, but significantly reduces animal productivity and can cause animal mortality. One study estimates that PRRS causes at $560 million in annual damages to the swine industry, which did not include the substantial costs borne by firms who attempt to reduce its impact by vaccinating animals and implementing more stringent biosecurity (Neumann, et al., 2015). The PRRS virus mutates quickly and existing vaccinations are only about 70% effective. The disease is highly contagious, airborne, and is carried by a variety of vectors, mainly involving humans and vehicles. It has proven impossible to date to eliminate the disease via either vaccination or stamping out. If PRRS cannot be eradicated, the next best solution is control, but control is costly. Thus, firms must seek a profit maximizing compromise between bearing higher costs to control the disease and suffering losses from outbreaks.PRRS is a non-reportable disease and efforts to control the disease are private and voluntary. However, given the high cost of the disease and the important interconnections among firms, input providers, a group of swine producers in Minnesota initiated a voluntary regional cooperative program (RCP), the first animal disease cooperative program of its type, in 2004. This program, now known as RCP N212, includes more than 500 swine producing firms, approximately a third of all swine producers in that region, in close interaction with the University of Minnesota. In subsequent years, swine producers in other regions of the US have formed additional RCPs.Producing units that enroll in RCP N212 are encouraged to share information about their disease status on a regular, frequently updated basis. The RCP also allows for the exchange of other information regarding firm activities that may be related to disease outbreaks and spread, e.g., purchase of inputs, including weaning pigs and gilts, feed, veterinary supplies, biosecurity investments and management practices, and transportation services involved in the purchase and sale of animals. It is hoped that RCP N212 will assist in the control of PRRS and, perhaps, its eventual eradication within the region.Because disease spread appears to depend on numerous factor that include a variety of interactions among firms and other industry components, disease control is likely to include the development of industry protocols, the sharing of information regarding disease prevalence and incentives to encourage private efforts to reduce spread. The diffusion of knowledge about disease status and the adoption of specific protocols by individual firms each have significant industry-wide benefits, i.e., externalities. Thus, it will likely be collectively important for the industry to develop explicit collective efforts to encourage individual firms to share information and to implement industry protocols. Over time, these efforts, and the data they produce, will hopefully provide additional insights leading to a reduction in both the costs of control and also losses due to outbreaks.RCPs are an important new instrument in efforts to control and/or eradicate animal disease in the US, but little is known about their growth, functioning and effects, or whether the framework so established will allow for improved cooperative activity, e.g., development of certifications to identify preferred actions by economic agents that may signal reduced risk of disease. I will evaluate the evolution and impact of RCP N212, jointly with Andres Perez (School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota).
Animal Health Component
0%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
(N/A)
Applied
100%
Developmental
(N/A)
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
6013320301020%
6033410301020%
6043450301020%
6063510301020%
6064030301020%
Knowledge Area
601 - Economics of Agricultural Production and Farm Management; 603 - Market Economics; 604 - Marketing and Distribution Practices; 606 - International Trade and Development;

Subject Of Investigation
3320 - Meat, beef cattle; 3510 - Swine, live animal; 3410 - Dairy cattle, live animal; 3450 - Milk; 4030 - Viruses;

Field Of Science
3010 - Economics;
Goals / Objectives
Research and outreach on this project will focus initially on three projects: 1) estimating the economic impact of foot and mouth disease (FMD) on international beef trade, 2) analyzing the reasons for the relatively limited use of rbST in US dairy herds, and 3) analyzing the scope for voluntary Regional Cooperative Programs (RCPs) to control PRRS in the swine industry. I have been working on the first two topics and am initiating a research program to focus also on the third topic (PRRS).1) The Effect of Foot and Mouth Disease, Importer Sanitary Policy and Implicit Commercial Policy on Beef Trade Flows and Export Prices in International Markets. I employ a two stage model to analyze the effects of FMD on international beef trade, considering FMD status of exporter and of importer, importer FMD sanitary policy, and other determinants of bilateral trade in beef. Combining the results from the two steps, I estimate the effect of FMD status in the exporting country on the export price obtained for 1990-2002, which provided the first direct econometric measurements of the effects of FMD on international beef prices.The purpose of the additional study is to 1) extend the data series to 2010, providing 20 years of observation (monthly data) and to analyze how the rapid expansion of beef trade during the last decade has affected the results, 2) further explore the difference in the results from the restricted and the global models, and 3) better identify the causes of the observed differences in the prices obtained by exporters in different markets, and 4) identify the effects of FMD-caused changes in trade flows on economic losses from FMD in both exporting and importing countries. Refinement of the results is important for identifying the effects of FMD on international trade. 2) Profitability and Uncertainty in the Adoption of rbST in US Dairy Herds. When developed in the late 1970s, recombinant bovine somatotropin (rbST) was one of the first biotechnology products in the agricultural industry. By transferring the gene responsible for somatotropin production in a cow to a bacterium and allowing the genetically altered bacterium to replicate many times over, scientists were able to produce commercial quantities of the growth hormone that could be injected into cows to stimulate milk production. After many years of controversy and testing, rbST was approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for commercial use in the U.S. in 1993. Monsanto introduced the product as Posilac in 1994. At the time of its introduction, several studies predicted that rbST would be a highly profitable technology at the farm level and most studies predicted that it would be adopted by a majority of dairy producers and would significantly increase production, possibly causing significant economic disruption to the dairy industry. That has not happened, primarily because rbSt has not been widely adopted.RbST has now been in use for 14 years. Although most new technologies have diffusion processes that require two decades or more for a ceiling use to be achieved, rbST use appears to have reached a much lower ceiling than initially predicted. Farm use of rbST at the national level leveled off about seven years after the product became commercially available and the proportion of dairies using rbST has remained nearly constant at approximately 17 percent for about 11 years. The number of cows treated has remained constant at about 33 percent of all dairy cows in the U.S.My research on this topic, carried out jointly with Leslie Butler (UC Davis) and Henry An (University of Alberta, Canada) analyzes the factors that have influenced farmer use of this biotechnology.3) Economic Analysis of Controlling PRRS via Volunteer Regional Cooperative Programs. PRRS is a highly contagious syndrome characterized by reproductive disorders in sows and respiratory disease in growing pigs, first reported in the US in the late 1980s and caused by the virus PRRSV (Perez, et al., 2015). PRRS does not affect human health, but significantly reduces animal productivity and can cause animal mortality. One study estimates that PRRS causes at $560 million in annual damages to the swine industry, which did not include the substantial costs borne by firms who attempt to reduce its impact by vaccinating animals and implementing more stringent biosecurity (Neumann, et al., 2015). The PRRS virus mutates quickly and existing vaccinations are only about 70% effective. The disease is highly contagious, airborne, and is carried by a variety of vectors, mainly involving humans and vehicles. It has proven impossible to date to eliminate the disease via either vaccination or stamping out. If PRRS cannot be eradicated, the next best solution is control, but control is costly. Thus, firms must seek a profit maximizing compromise between bearing higher costs to control the disease and suffering losses from outbreaks.PRRS is a non-reportable disease and efforts to control the disease are private and voluntary. However, given the high cost of the disease and the important interconnections among firms, input providers, a group of swine producers in Minnesota initiated a voluntary regional cooperative program (RCP), the first animal disease cooperative program of its type, in 2004. This program, now known as RCP N212, includes more than 500 swine producing firms, approximately a third of all swine producers in that region, in close interaction with the University of Minnesota. In subsequent years, swine producers in other regions of the US have formed additional RCPs.Producing units that enroll in RCP N212 are encouraged to share information about their disease status on a regular, frequently updated basis. The RCP also allows for the exchange of other information regarding firm activities that may be related to disease outbreaks and spread, e.g., purchase of inputs, including weaning pigs and gilts, feed, veterinary supplies, biosecurity investments and management practices, and transportation services involved in the purchase and sale of animals. It is hoped that RCP N212 will assist in the control of PRRS and, perhaps, its eventual eradication within the region.Because disease spread appears to depend on numerous factor that include a variety of interactions among firms and other industry components, disease control is likely to include the development of industry protocols, the sharing of information regarding disease prevalence and incentives to encourage private efforts to reduce spread. The diffusion of knowledge about disease status and the adoption of specific protocols by individual firms each have significant industry-wide benefits, i.e., externalities. Thus, it will likely be collectively important for the industry to develop explicit collective efforts to encourage individual firms to share information and to implement industry protocols. Over time, these efforts, and the data they produce, will hopefully provide additional insights leading to a reduction in both the costs of control and also losses due to outbreaks.RCPs are an important new instrument in efforts to control and/or eradicate animal disease in the US, but little is known about their growth, functioning and effects, or whether the framework so established will allow for improved cooperative activity, e.g., development of certifications to identify preferred actions by economic agents that may signal reduced risk of disease. I will evaluate the evolution and impact of RCP N212, jointly with Andres Perez (School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota). The three projects will result in professional journal articles to convey the findings to a broad professional audience. I will publish non-technical articles in lay publications, providing insights and policy recommendations that result from the analyses. And I will present the results in conferences nationally and internationally.
Project Methods
1. Collection of data on beef prices and quantities traded for all major beef exporters and importers, 2) Construction of two stage panel data models to estimate the effect of FMD on access to different markets and the determinants of beef prices in different models, which will then be used to estimate the effect of FMD on the price received for beef in international markets, 4) Construction of models to estimate the dynamic effects of changing Argentine and Uruguayan exports on the international beef market and their use to study these effects under different plausible scenarios, 5) Use of existing model of FMD effect to simulate effect of changing industry procedures to reduce FMD effects, 8) Simulation modeling for evaluating the impacts on consumers and producers in both exporting and importing countries and regions that result from SPS-based embargoes or other regulatory policies on international trade of animals and animal products.2. Collection of data on factors determining profitability of rbST, mainly input and output prices, and technical parameters. Use of simulation models to calculate profitability of rbST use under different scenarios and calculation of expected profitability under different scenarios, weighted by time prices were in effect during last decade. Interviews with farmers and review of literature.3. Surveys to collect data from swine producers. Econometric and epidemiological analysis of factors influencing disease outbreaks and disease spread within RCP N212 area. Construction of models to allow simulation of disease outbreaks and disease spread under different assumed parameters resulting from improved information and cooperative action.

Progress 10/28/15 to 09/30/18

Outputs
Target Audience:The audience for the research on Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRSS) was targeted through journal articles, publications, conference presentations, workshops, the lay press and individual conversations. The target audience included academic researchers -- particularly agricultural and livestock economists and veterinary epidemiologists, large swine producers, pork processors, pharmaceutical firms and policy makers, especially those concerned with the prevention and control of swine disease. The target audience for our research on the control of disease and parasites in the Chilean salmon industry was salmon producers, suppliers of inputs to the salmon industry, and government officials in Chile who monitor and regulate the salmon industry. Changes/Problems:The project focused almost exclusively on Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS). PRSS is the most important swine disease in the US in terms of economic impact. A collaboration with veterinarians at the University of Minnesota and a graduate student at UC Davis, Pablo Valdes-Donoso, utilized a unique data set to understand the effect of a voluntary effort by producers through a Regional Control Project (RCP) to share data on PRSS outbreaks. Analysis of these data led us to analyze the relationships between airborne virus and animal movements, and to develop a model estimating the diffusion of a PRSS outbreak within the RCP region. Success in this effort allowed us to estimate the economic impact of sow vaccination and the use of biofilters in swine production facilities. This work was very fruitful and I decided to dedicate all of my time and effort to this project. That decision was also affected by problems that occurred in the other two components of the original proposal, i.e., the research on foot and mouth disease and on the diffusion and impact of rbST. Those projects were also inhibited by data problems and illness. The data bank used for research on FMD essentially disappeared as the graduate student who had prepared the data left the US, accepted and then left his academic appointment in his home country, and declared no interest in continuing the work. Efforts to obtain the data failed. Research on rbST ended with illness of a key collaborator. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?One graduate student, Pablo Valdes-Donoso, received his PhD in Veterinary Medicine (Epidemiology) and his MS degree in Agricultural and Resource Economics. He then continued working as a Postdoc in the Agricultural Issues Center. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?I and my co-authors published numerous scientific articles in professional journals that focused on the prevention and control of Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRSS). These articles reached academic researchers, particularly agricultural and livestock economists and veterinary epidemiologists. We also presented at numerous conferences and workshops, reaching swine producers, pork processors, producers of pharmaceutical products, e.g., vaccinations, and policy makers, especially those concerned with swine disease. We published an article in an industry journal discussing the control of disease and parasites in the Chilean salmon industry, which sought to reach salmon producers, suppliers of inputs to the salmon industry, and government officials in Chile who monitor and regulate the salmon industry. We received great interest in our work, both methodological advances and specific results, from participants in conferences and workshops. Each of the papers published have been cited. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Porcine reproductive respiratory syndrome (PRRS) appeared in the US about 1986. Endemic in most of the world, it is one of the most economically damaging diseases in the United States. Because PRSS does not affect humans and has no impact on international trade, individual outbreaks are not non-reportable and individual producers have sole responsibility for its control. Producers have adopted measures such as sow vaccination, biofilters and improved biosecurity practices and have begun to share information on PRSS outbreaks. A particularly interesting case is an effort by a group of producers that formed a Regional Control Program (RCP, N212) in 2004. Despite the significant exchange of information regarding disease outbreaks and individual farmer efforts to control them, little was known about the effects of farmer investments or the potential benefits from collaborative actions. We use data from RCP-N212, supplemented from other sources, to develop several models whose results that provide new information about 1) what types of producers have participated in RCP-N212, 2) the relationship between swine animal movements on disease outbreaks, 3) the physical and economic effects of PRSS outbreaks on a set of sow farms and, ultimately, an estimate of the physical and economics effects of PRSS on farms in the RCP-N212 area of Minnesota in the absence of any control investments. Our estimates indicate that private investment, e.g., vaccination, is cost effective on most investing farms and has significant external effects by reducing damages on non-investing farms. We first used information collected by the RCP-N212 to quantify the extent to which RCPs contribute to PRRS control. Using repeated analysis of variance and general linear mixed-effects models, we analyzed the spatial and temporal participation by different types of swine farms in the RCP. The demography of premises (e.g., composition of farms with sows = SS and without sows = NSS) was assessed by a repeated analysis of variance. We found sow breeding units are more likely than production units without sows (fattening) to participate, suggesting that producers of sow breeding units were more willing to share information. The model shows that although the number of farms enrolled in RCP-N212 is increasing, certain types of farms show a hesitancy to do so. Methodologically, we developed a systematic approach to quantify participation by swine farms in RCPs. The second study focused on between-farm and farm-processor animal movements, which are believed to be one of the most important factors influencing the spread of infectious diseases in food animals, including in the US swine industry. Understanding the structural network of contacts in a food animal industry is a prerequisite to planning for efficient production strategies and for effective disease control measures. Unfortunately, data regarding between-farm animal movements in the US are not systematically collected. We develop a procedure to replicate the structure of a network, making use of partial data available, and use the model developed to predict animal movements among sites in 34 Minnesota counties. We summarized two networks of swine producing facilities in Minnesota, then we used a machine learning technique referred to as random forest, an ensemble of independent classification trees, to estimate the probability of pig movements between farms and/or markets sites located in two counties in Minnesota. The model was calibrated and tested by comparing predicted data and observed data in those two counties for which data were available. Finally, the model was used to predict animal movements in sites located across 34 Minnesota counties. Variables that were important in predicting pig movements included between-site distance, ownership, and production type of the sending and receiving farms and/or markets. Using a weighted-kernel approach to describe spatial variation in the centrality measures of the predicted network, we showed that the south-central region of the study area exhibited high aggregation of predicted pig movements. Our results show an overlap of movements with the distribution of outbreaks of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome, which is believed to be transmitted, at least in part, though animal movements. The methodology developed can be used used to estimate contact networks for other livestock systems when only incomplete information regarding animal movements is available. The third major study analyzed the effects of PRSS on production. PRRS' complex epidemiology and the diverse clinical effects observed in different types of infected farms have hampered efforts to quantify PRRS' temporal impact on production. We analyzed the effects of PRRS on the production of weaned pigs using a log-linear fixed effects model to evaluate longitudinal data collected from 16 sow farms belonging to a specific firm. We measured seven additional indicators of farm performance to gain insight into disease dynamics. We used pre-outbreak longitudinal data to establish a baseline that was then used to estimate the decrease in production. A significant rise of abortions in the week before the outbreak was reported was the strongest signal of PRRSV activity. In addition, production declined slightly one week before the outbreak and then fell markedly until weeks 5 and 6 post-outbreak. Recovery was not monotonic, cycling gently around a rising trend. At the end of the study period (35 weeks post-outbreak), neither the production of weaned pigs nor any of the performance indicators had fully recovered to baseline levels. This result suggests PRSS outbreaks may last longer than has been found in most other studies. We assessed PRRS' effect on farm efficiency as measured by changes in sow production of weaned pigs per year. We translated production losses into revenue losses assuming an average market price of $45.2/weaned pig. We estimate that the average PRSS outbreak reduced production by approximately 7.4%, relative to annual output in the absence of an outbreak. PRRS reduced production by 1.92 weaned pigs per sow when adjusted to an annual basis. This decrease is substantially larger than the 1.44 decrease of weaned pigs per sow/year reported elsewhere. The fourth major study used the information developed previously to develop a combined epidemiological-economic model to simulate the diffusion of a PRRS outbreak within the RCP-N212 area during a 26 week period. Next, we estimate the economic losses due to a PRRS outbreak in the absence of any control investments, and then estimate how these losses are reduced if producers invest in: 1) vaccination of sows against PRRS and/or 2) installation of bio-filters in breeding facilities. We find that adoption of vaccination, the installation of bio-filters, or the implementation of both preventive measures significantly decreases disease-related production losses. Our estimates also indicate that private investment has significant external effects by reducing damages on non-investing farms. The presence of positive external effects suggests that an industry-coordinated strategy, like a vaccine subsidy funded by a levy on slaughtered pigs, might increase vaccination and further reduce disease losses even in the absence of governmental action. The existence of strong external effects also suggests a rationale for making PRSS reportable. Although increased costs should be balanced against possible gains, increased information and/or government intervention might achieve significant net benefits.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Valdes-Donoso P. and Jarvis, L.S. 2015.  Análisis económico en la gestión de salud de los peces. Salmonexpert. August.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Valdes-Donoso P., Jarvis L.S., Wright D., Alvarez J., Perez A.M. 2016. Measuring Progress on the Control of Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS) at a Regional Level: The Minnesota N212 Regional Control Project (RCP) as a Working Example. Plos One.  February 19, 2016
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Valdes-Donoso, P., VanderWaal, K., Jarvis, L., Wayne, S., and Perez, A. 2017. ⿿Using machine learning to predict swine movements within a regional program to improve control of infectious diseases in the US.⿝ Frontiers in Veterinary Medicine: Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics. January 19, 2017.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Valdes-Donoso, P., Alvarez, J., Jarvis, L.S., Morrison, R. and Perez, A. 2018. ⿿Production losses from an endemic animal disease: Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) in selected US sow farms.⿝ Frontiers in Veterinary Science, 5, May.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Pablo Valdes-Donoso. Economics and Farmed Fish Health Management: The Chilean Salmon Industry as a Case Study, 2018. University of California, Agricultural Issues Center. March 14
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Pablo Valdes-Donoso. Swine Seminars, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota, St. Paul MN, US. June 2017. ⿿Epidemiological investigation of a non-reportable endemic disease: Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) in the US⿝. 
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Pablo Valdes-Donoso. 2016 North American PRRS Symposium. Chicago IL, US. December 2016.⿿Using machine learning to predict swine movements within a regional program to improve control of infectious diseases in the US⿝ and ⿿Production losses associated with porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) in US sow farms⿝. 
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Pablo Valdes-Donoso and Andres Perez. PRRS has lingering negative impact. National Hog Farmer Magazine (http://www.nationalhogfarmer.com/animal-health/study-shows-prrs-has-lingering-negative-impact Jan 16th, 2017).
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Pablo Valdes-Donoso and Andres Perez. How much do porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) cost to US? Dr. Morrison Swine Health Monitoring Project. University of Minnesota (https://www.vetmed.umn.edu/sites/vetmed.umn.edu/files/shmp_2016l17.29_cost_of_prrs_to_the_us_sciencepage.pdf Jan 13th, 2017)
  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2017 Citation: Pablo Valdes-Donoso. Collective Strategies to Control PRRS, a Non-Reportable, Endemic Swine Disease
  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2017 Citation: Pablo Valdes-Donoso. Epidemiological investigation of an endemic disease in a highly intensive animal production system in the US: The porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS)
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Other Year Published: 2019 Citation: Pablo Valdes-Donoso and Lovell Jarvis. Private and Collective Strategies to Reduce Economic Damages from Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS), an Endemic Swine Disease in the US
  • Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2019 Citation: Pablo Valdes-Donoso, Lovell Jarvis, and Andres Perez. Individual and targeted control strategies for porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) in the US
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Pablo Valdes-Donoso. ⿿Regional Strategies to Control Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS), a Non-Reportable, Endemic Swine Disease in the US⿝. MSD High-Quality Pork Congress EU. Baveno, Italy. October 2018
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Pablo Valdes-Donoso. 1. ⿿Using machine learning to predict swine movements within a regional program to improve control of infectious diseases in the US⿝ and ⿿Production losses associated with porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) in US sow farms⿝. 2016 North American PRRS Symposium. Chicago IL, US. December 2016
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2019 Citation: Valdes-Donoso, P., Alvarez, J., Jarvis, L. S., Morrison, R. B. & Perez, A. M. Pérdidas de producción asociadas a PRRS en un grupo de granjas de madres de Estados Unidos. Suis magazine, Espana. Forthcoming, February 2019.
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Pablo Valdes-Donoso and Andres Perez. PRRS has lingering negative impact. National Hog Farmer Magazine (http://www.nationalhogfarmer.com/animal-health/study-shows-prrs-has-lingering-negative-impact Jan 16, 2017).


Progress 10/01/16 to 09/30/17

Outputs
Target Audience:Published articles were read and cited by professional veterinarians and economists, by hog producers in the US and elsewhere in the world, and by policy makers in the US. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Continuing education in research for Pablo Valdes-Donoso, who completed a PhD in June 2017 and an MS degree based on his research on PRRS in December 2017. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Pablo Valdes-Donoso, presented "Epidemiological investigation of a non-reportable endemic disease: Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) in the US" in the Swine Production Seminar, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota, June 9, 2017. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Will publish journal article on the "Economic evaluation of individual and collective strategies to control a non-reportable endemic disease: Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) in the US".

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Research and outreach on this project focused on the effect of voluntary Regional Cooperative Programs (RCPs) for controlling PRRS in the swine industry. We published one paper using machine learning to predict swine movements within a region of Minnesota, using data from a previous study that could be extrapolated to a larger region. The model predicted animal movements that are congruent with anecdotal evidence and that correlate highly with PRSS outputs in the region and which are believed to be associated with animal movements. We published another paper measuring the impact of PRSS on the production of weaned pigs among a swine production system. The results showed that the impact of PRSS was both larger in terms of physical and financial loss than has been estimated in other studies, even though the sows in this system had all been vaccinated. We also showed that the duration of a PRRS outbreak is significantly longer, i.e., the recovery to the pre-outbreak level of output was slow and also non-monotonic. We are preparing a paper that estimated the effects of two PRRS control instruments: 1) vaccination of sows and 2) investment in biofilters for sow farms. We find that vaccination significantly reduces the effects of a PRRS outbreak and, considering the externalities associated with vaccination of a single facility, that all sow farms should be encouraged to vaccinate. The data are less clear for biofilters, which are very heterogeneous in design, cost and effect.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Valdes-Donoso, P., VanderWaal, K., Jarvis, L., Wayne, S., and Perez, A. 2017. Using machine learning to predict swine movements within a regional program to improve control of infectious diseases in the US. Frontiers in Veterinary Science: Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics, 19 January 2017.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Submitted Year Published: 2018 Citation: Valdes-Donoso, P., Alvarez, J., Jarvis, L.S., Morrison, R. and Perez, A. Submitted. Production losses from an endemic animal disease: Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) in US sow farms. Frontiers in Veterinary Science.
  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Epidemiological investigation of an endemic disease in a highly intensive animal production system in the US: The porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS), PhD Dissertation, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, 2017.
  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2017 Citation: Economic evaluation of individual and collective strategies to control a non-reportable endemic disease: Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) in the US, MS Thesis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Davis, 2017.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Valdes-Donoso P., Jarvis L.S., Wright D., Alvarez J., Perez A.M. 2016. Measuring Progress on the Control of Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS) at a Regional Level: The Minnesota N212 Regional Control Project (RCP) as a Working Example. Plos One. February 19, 2016


Progress 10/28/15 to 09/30/16

Outputs
Target Audience:Academic researchers, hog producers in the US, government researchers, and policy makers working on food policy as related to animal disease prevention and control, particularly as regards foot and mouth disease. Changes/Problems:Work has focused on the losses caused by PRRS in Minnesota, but I will return to research on rbST adoption. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Continuing education in research for Pablo Valdes-Donoso, who is completing a PhD and an MS degree based on his research on PRRS. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? Lovell Jarvis presented faculty research lecture to School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota, on "A review of the use of economics by economists and veterinarians to analyze animal health management." December 9, 2015. Pablo Valdes-Donoso presented a paper at the 4thInternational Society of Veterinary Epidemiology andEconomics (ISVEE14). November 2015, on "Measuring progress onporcinereproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) control ata regional level: theMinnesota N212 regional control project(RCP) as a working example." Also, Pablo Valdes-Donoso presented papers to the Leman Conference, for hog producers, economists and veterinary researchers in Chicago, 2015 and 2016. Pablo Valdes-Donoso also presented a paper to a meeting of producers in the Minnesota N212 Regional Control Project in 2016. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Continuing education in research for Pablo Valdes-Donoso, who presented a paper at the 4thInternational Society of Veterinary Epidemiology andEconomics (ISVEE14). November 2015. Measuring progress onporcinereproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) control ata regional level: theMinnesota N212 regional control project(RCP) as a working example. Expect to complete response to editor for paper "Measuring production losses from endemic animal disease: Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome," and work with Valdes-Donoso to complete his MS thesis in Agricultural and Resource Economics. Also hope to return to research on the adoption of rbST in California.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? My co-author on these papers is Pablo Valdes-Donoso, a Chilean graduate student that I have mentored since he began his MS in Veterinary Medicine at UC Davis. He is now completing his PhD in Veterinary Medicine (epidemiology) and and a second MS in Agricultural and Resource Economics. In the last reporting period, we have published 1) a paper on the use of economics in the management of animal health issues in the Chilean salmon industry, 2) a paper on the use of a Regional Control Program to measure and control PRSS, a swine disease, 3) a paper using machine learning to predict swine movements within a regional program to thereby improve control of infection diseases that may be caused by animal movements, and 4) a paper measuring production losses from endemic Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS).

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Valdes-Donoso P.�and Jarvis, L.S. 2015.��An�lisis econ�mico en la gesti�n de salud de�los peces. Salmonexpert. August.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Valdes-Donoso P., Jarvis L.S., Wright D., Alvarez J., Perez A.M.�2016. Measuring Progress on the Control of Porcine�Reproductive and�Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS) at a Regional�Level: The Minnesota N212 Regional�Control Project (RCP) as�a Working Example. Plos One.��February 19, 2016
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2017 Citation: Valdes-Donoso, P., VanderWaal, K., Jarvis, L., Wayne, S., and Perez, A. 2017. Using machine learning to predict swine movements within a regional program to improve control of infectious diseases in the US. Frontiers in Veterinary Medicine: Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics. Forthcoming.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Submitted Year Published: 2017 Citation: Pablo Valdes-Donoso,�Julio Alvarez,�Lovell Jarvis, Andres�Perez.�Measuring production losses from endemic�animal�disease: Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome�(PRRS) in US�sow farms.�Submitted to Plos One