Progress 01/01/16 to 12/31/17
Outputs
Target Audience:
Nothing Reported
Changes/Problems:The major changes of this project is that Dr. Redmond was offered a tenure-track Assistant Professor position at Colorado State University, which she has accepted and started as of January 2017. She hopes to switch this award to a standard grant in order to continue accomplishing the goals of this project. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?This project provided several training and professional development opportunities, including undergraduate training in the scientific research process and postdoctoral training and professional development. As part of this project, an undergraduate student, Britney Khuu, has been mentored on an independent research project examining annual variability in singleleaf pinyon pine cone production, which she is currently analyzing and writing her interpretations, which will form her honors thesis project. Miranda Redmond (PI on this project), was mentored throughout this project by her postdoctoral mentor Peter Weisberg. Miranda learned several important skills through this project, including new analytical techniques, improved scientific writing, and interview and presentation skills. Ultimately, Dr. Redmond was successful in her career goal of obtaining a tenure-track faculty position (Colorado State University) while the project was still ongoing. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?To date, the results have been disseminated to communities of interest through three avenues: 1. A peer-reviewed journal article that will mostly reach the scientific community but also some of the land management community. 2. Presentation at the Natural Areas Conference which is geared towards both scientists and land managers. 3. The educational resources that were reviewed as part of this project were disseminated to science educators through the Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Over the next reporting period, I plan to conduct additional field sampling to obtain historical seed cone production estimates across a broader spatial gradient. I also plan to analyze and publish the seed cone production data and model how changes in seed cone production will affect long-term tree population viability (research objective 2). To further meet the education objectives of this proposal, I also plan to develop educational materials based off the results of this data to be used as an interrupted case study in high school and undergraduate science classes.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
Research The overarching research goal of this project is to examine how climate variability influences seed production of singleleaf pinyon pine, a dominant and widespread conifer of the Great Basin. Similar to other semi-arid conifer species, singleleaf pinyon pine is a mast-seeding species (i.e. species with highly synchronous and intermittent production of large seed crops), that may be highly sensitive to changes in climate, specifically increases in temperature and associated increases in water deficits. To accomplish our goal, we first successfully validated a method to assess historical (past 15 years) seed cone production on semi-arid conifer trees (see Redmond et al., 2016; see Progress Report Products). We then used this method to assess spatial and temporal patterns in seed cone production in the Pine Nut Range in the western Nevada Great Basin. We found that local climatic conditions strongly influenced the amount of seed cone production, with the highest amounts of seed cone production occurring at the high elevation site, which experienced cooler, wetter conditions, and the lowest amounts of seed cone production occurring at the low elevation site, which experienced hotter and drier conditions. Overall two key results emerged from the project: 1.We can successfully use the cone abscission scar method to accurately quantify historical seed cone production for singleleaf pinyon pine and likely other slow-growing conifer trees. Although the method has been used previously for other semi-arid conifer species, it was uncertain whether it would work for singleleaf pinyon pine because of the slow and episodic growth of this species, among the most drought-adapted of North American pines. The cone abscission scar method was further corroborated using tree-ring analysis of branch cross sections, for a pilot study using a subset of the samples. This method will be pivotal in allowing us to understand the factors that influence seed production among mast-seeding conifer trees in the absence of long-term datasets. 2. Our results show that singleleaf pinyon pine seed cone production varies across the landscape due to differences in environmental stress and suggest that predicted changes in climate, specifically increases in temperature and the severity of drought events, will negatively impact pinyon seed cone production. Education The overarching education goal of this project is to improve the science literacy of high school science students. As part of this project, PI Redmond reviewed over ten science education resources for high school and undergraduate science students and added an educational resource to the Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network. A majority of the educational part of the project was to be completed in year 2, by which time this goal will be fully achieved. We now provide specific details below for each objective: R1.) Quantify the spatiotemporal patterns in pinyon pine cone production to determine how total reproductive output and the degree of masting may be affected by changing climate Specific Project Details Major Activities Completed: 1. Conducted field sampling in northern Arizona to validate the cone abscission scar methodology (technique necessary to quantify temporal variability in seed cone production. The methodology was successful and this project has been completed and published (Redmond et al. 2016; see Products). 2. Conducted field sampling in Nevada to assess spatial and temporal variability in singleleaf pinyon cone production. We are still analyzing the data and also plan to collect more field data this coming summer. 3. Synthesized data on how drought and recent changes in climate have affected pinyon pine tree regeneration from a range of studies across Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico. 3. Postdoctoral mentor, Peter Weisberg, presented project results at the Natural Areas Conference in October, 2016 in Davis, CA (see Products). Data Collected: See field datasets collected above Summary Statistics and Discussion of Results: We found a strong relationship between cone abundance estimated using the cone abscission scar methodology and mature cones (Spearman's ρ = 0.52). The cone abscission scar method was highly effective at distinguishing between years of high and low cone production across our study area (Pearson's r > 0.97). This method was also effective at distinguishing between high and low cone producing trees: mean estimates of cone abundance among each tree (averaged across all years) were strongly correlated with observed cone abundance (Pearson's r = 0.82). Overall, our results highlight how this approach is effective at measuring historical annual cone production with minimal sampling effort. Data collected in a spatially-explicit manner using the cone abscission scar method can be used to assess how spatiotemporal variability in climate affects tree reproduction potential across the landscape. This information can be used to develop spatially-explicit long-range pine nut forecasts and to assess how seed production may change under a changing climate. Furthermore, land managers can use this approach to determine which trees have high reproductive outputs in an area. In the case of pinyon pine, such information can be used to target highly reproductive trees for removal where the management goal is to slow the rate of pine expansion into adjacent nonforested ecosystems. Alternatively, if the management goal is to retain several large seed producing trees for regeneration, wildlife, and/or pine nut harvesters, then land managers can use these data to identify those trees to retain on the landscape following fuel-reduction treatments. Overall, this method provides a robust and time efficient approach to accurately determine historical annual cone production, data that are critically important to determine the endogenous and exogenous drivers of seed production. 4.) Key outcomes or other accomplishments realized The results of this work have fostered a change in knowledge by providing a clear methodological technique to quantify historical seed cone production and this resulted in a peer-reviewed manuscript (see Progress Report Products). This work has also resulted in a change in knowledge by providing a clearer understanding of the abiotic and biotic controls on pinyon pine and juniper regeneration under a changing climate. We are currently preparing a manuscript on these findings, and have already presented these results at a national meeting (Natural Areas Conference, see Progress Report Products). R2.) Assess how sensitive pinyon pine population dynamics are to changes in the magnitude and timing of cone production under different predicted climate scenarios. This part of the project has not yet been completed, as this part of the project was to be completed in year 2. E1.) Train high school science teachers on how to use case studies and inquiry-based learning approaches to teach students about science concepts while developing their science processing, critical thinking, and communication skills; Major Activities Completed: PI Redmond reviewed over ten science education resources for high school and undergraduate science students and added an educational resource to the Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network. Key outcomes or accomplishments realized: Additional peer-reviewed educational resources were provided for high school and college science teachers to use to enhance the climate and energy literacy of high school and college science students. *Note: PI Redmond reviewed these resources (i.e. she did not develop these peer-reviewed resources). E2.) Teach high school students how to interpret and synthesize scientific findings to understand how climate change may affect woodland ecosystems through changes in plant reproduction. This part of the project has not yet been completed as this part of the projected was to completed in year 2.
Publications
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Progress 01/01/16 to 12/31/16
Outputs
Target Audience:The target audience for the research component includes the scientific community and land managers for this reporting period. The efforts completed to reach the target audience during the reporting period include publication of a peer-reviewed manuscript (Redmond et al., 2016; see Products) and presentation of this research at the Natural Areas Conference in Davis, CA that was for both scientsits and land managers. The target audience for the education component was primarily high school and college science instructors and the efforts completed was reviewing education modules on climate and energy related topics to be included in the peer-reviewed Climate Literacy and Energy Resources Network repository. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?This project provided several training and professional development opportunities, including undergraduate training in the scientific research process and postdoctoral training and professional development. As part of this project, an undergraduate student, Britney Khuu, has been mentored on an independent research project examining annual variability in singleleaf pinyon pine cone production, which she is currently analyzing and writing her interpretations, which will form her honors thesis project. Miranda Redmond (PI on this project), was mentored throughout this project by her postdoctoral mentor Peter Weisberg. Miranda learned several important skills through this project, including new analytical techniques, improved scientific writing, and interview and presentation skills. Ultimately, Dr. Redmond was successful in her career goal of obtaining a tenure-track faculty position (Colorado State University) while the project was still ongoing. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?To date, the results have been disseminated to communities of interest through three avenues: 1. A peer-reviewed journal article that will mostly reach the scientific community but also some of the land management community. 2. Presentation at the Natural Areas Conference which is geared towards both scientists and land managers. 3. The educational resources that were reviewed as part of this project were disseminated to science educators through the Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Over the next reporting period, I plan to conduct additional field sampling to obtain historical seed cone production estimates across a broader spatial gradient. I also plan to analyze and publish the seed cone production data and model how changes in seed cone production will affect long-term tree population viability (research objective 2). To further meet the education objectives of this proposal, I also plan to develop educational materials based off the results of this data to be used as an interrupted case study in high school and undergraduate science classes.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
Research The overarching research goal of this project is to examine how climate variability influences seed production of singleleaf pinyon pine, a dominant and widespread conifer of the Great Basin. Similar to other semi-arid conifer species, singleleaf pinyon pine is a mast-seeding species (i.e. species with highly synchronous and intermittent production of large seed crops), that may be highly sensitive to changes in climate, specifically increases in temperature and associated increases in water deficits. To accomplish our goal, we first successfully validated a method to assess historical (past 15 years) seed cone production on semi-arid conifer trees (see Redmond et al., 2016; see Products). We then used this method to assess spatial and temporal patterns in seed cone production in the Pine Nut Range in the western Nevada Great Basin. We found that local climatic conditions strongly influenced the amount of seed cone production, with the highest amounts of seed cone production occurring at the high elevation site, which experienced cooler, wetter conditions, and the lowest amounts of seed cone production occurring at the low elevation site, which experienced hotter and drier conditions. Overall two key results emerged from the project: 1.We can successfully use the cone abscission scar method to accurately quantify historical seed cone production for singleleaf pinyon pine and likely other slow-growing conifer trees. Although the method has been used previously for other semi-arid conifer species, it was uncertain whether it would work for singleleaf pinyon pine because of the slow and episodic growth of this species, among the most drought-adapted of North American pines. The cone abscission scar method was further corroborated using tree-ring analysis of branch cross sections, for a pilot study using a subset of the samples. This method will be pivotal in allowing us to understand the factors that influence seed production among mast-seeding conifer trees in the absence of long-term datasets. 2. Our results show that singleleaf pinyon pine seed cone production varies across the landscape due to differences in environmental stress and suggest that predicted changes in climate, specifically increases in temperature and the severity of drought events, will negatively impact pinyon seed cone production. Education The overarching education goal of this project is to improve the science literacy of high school science students. As part of this project, PI Redmond reviewed over ten science education resources for high school and undergraduate science students and added an educational resource to the Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network. A majority of the educational part of the project was to be completed in year 2, by which time this goal will be fully achieved. We now provide specific details below for each objective: R1.) Quantify the spatiotemporal patterns in pinyon pine cone production to determine how total reproductive output and the degree of masting may be affected by changing climate Specific Project Details Major Activities Completed: 1. Conducted field sampling in northern Arizona to validate the cone abscission scar methodology (technique necessary to quantify temporal variability in seed cone production. The methodology was successful and this project has been completed and published (Redmond et al. 2016; see Products). 2. Conducted field sampling in Nevada to assess spatial and temporal variability in singleleaf pinyon cone production. We are still analyzing the data and also plan to collect more field data this coming summer. 3. Synthesized data on how drought and recent changes in climate have affected pinyon pine tree regeneration from a range of studies across Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico. 3. Postdoctoral mentor, Peter Weisberg, presented project results at the Natural Areas Conference in October, 2016 in Davis, CA (see Products). Data Collected: See field datasets collected above Summary Statistics and Discussion of Results: We found a strong relationship between cone abundance estimated using the cone abscission scar methodology and mature cones (Spearman's ρ = 0.52). The cone abscission scar method was highly effective at distinguishing between years of high and low cone production across our study area (Pearson's r > 0.97). This method was also effective at distinguishing between high and low cone producing trees: mean estimates of cone abundance among each tree (averaged across all years) were strongly correlated with observed cone abundance (Pearson's r = 0.82). Overall, our results highlight how this approach is effective at measuring historical annual cone production with minimal sampling effort. Data collected in a spatially-explicit manner using the cone abscission scar method can be used to assess how spatiotemporal variability in climate affects tree reproduction potential across the landscape. This information can be used to develop spatially-explicit long-range pine nut forecasts and to assess how seed production may change under a changing climate. Furthermore, land managers can use this approach to determine which trees have high reproductive outputs in an area. In the case of pinyon pine, such information can be used to target highly reproductive trees for removal where the management goal is to slow the rate of pine expansion into adjacent nonforested ecosystems. Alternatively, if the management goal is to retain several large seed producing trees for regeneration, wildlife, and/or pine nut harvesters, then land managers can use these data to identify those trees to retain on the landscape following fuel-reduction treatments. Overall, this method provides a robust and time efficient approach to accurately determine historical annual cone production, data that are critically important to determine the endogenous and exogenous drivers of seed production. 4.) Key outcomes or other accomplishments realized The results of this work have fostered a change in knowledge by providing a clear methodological technique to quantify historical seed cone production and this resulted in a peer-reviewed manuscript (see Products). This work has also resulted in a change in knowledge by providing a clearer understanding of the abiotic and biotic controls on pinyon pine and juniper regeneration under a changing climate. We are currently preparing a manuscript on these findings, and have already presented these results at a national meeting (Natural Areas Conference, see Products). R2.) Assess how sensitive pinyon pine population dynamics are to changes in the magnitude and timing of cone production under different predicted climate scenarios. This part of the project has not yet been completed, as this part of the project was to be completed in year 2. E1.) Train high school science teachers on how to use case studies and inquiry-based learning approaches to teach students about science concepts while developing their science processing, critical thinking, and communication skills; Major Activities Completed: PI Redmond reviewed over ten science education resources for high school and undergraduate science students and added an educational resource to the Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network. Key outcomes or accomplishments realized: Additional peer-reviewed educational resources were provided for high school and college science teachers to use to enhance the climate and energy literacy of high school and college science students. *Note: PI Redmond reviewed these resources (i.e. she did not develop these peer-reviewed resources). E2.) Teach high school students how to interpret and synthesize scientific findings to understand how climate change may affect woodland ecosystems through changes in plant reproduction. This part of the project has not yet been completed as this part of the projected was to completed in year 2.
Publications
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Redmond MD, Weisberg PJ, Cobb NS, Gehring CA, Whipple AV, Whitham TG. 2016. A robust method to determine historical annual cone production among slow-growing conifers. Forest Ecology & Management 368: 1-6.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Redmond, M.D., and P.J. Weisberg. Natural Areas Conference, Davis, CA. Oct. 2016. Oral Presentation. Woodland recovery following drought-induced tree mortality: Abiotic and biotic controls on tree regeneration . (invited talk)
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