Progress 12/15/17 to 12/14/18
Outputs Target Audience:Academic scientists, state and federal agency officials involved in agriculture and natural resource management. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?I have been able to collaborate with a much wider group of scientists than had I not received this fellowship, which has had a snowball-effect on the size of my professional network and the amount and breadth of science I have produced in the past three years. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?I have presented my work at several scholarly conferences in ecology, entomology, and conservation biology. I have also worked extensively with pest managers as part of the Gypsy Moth Slow the Spread Foundation Technical Committee and as a member of the National Gypsy Moth Management Board. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?The grant period has ended.
Impacts What was accomplished under these goals?
Objectives 1 and 3 were addressed in Walter et al. (2018) Life history and habitat explain variation among insect populations subject to global change. Objective 2 was addressed, for a selection of taxa having high-quality data, in Walter et al. (submitted) Effects of weather and transgenic, insect-resistant crops on spatial synchrony and multi-decadal population trends of Lepidopteran pests. Objective 4 could not be completed because the data I was able to assemble could not enable robust predictions of future population dynamics.
Publications
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2019
Citation:
Anderson, T.L., L.W. Sheppard, J.A. Walter, S.P. Hendricks, K.A. Johnston, T.L. Levine, D.S. White, & D.C. Reuman. 2018. The dependence of synchrony on timescale and geography in freshwater plankton. Limnology and Oceanography doi: 10.1002/lno.11054.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2018
Citation:
Malfi, R.M., J.A. Walter, T.H. Roulston, C. Stuligross, S. McIntosh, & L. Bauer. 2018. The influence of a prominent natural enemy on bumblebee colony productivity. Ecological Monographs 88, 653-671.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2018
Citation:
Klaapwijk, M.J., J.A. Walter, A. Hirka, G. Csoka, C. Bjorkman, & A.M. Liebhold. 2018. Transient synchrony among fiver foliage-feeding Lepidoptera. Journal of Animal Ecology doi: 10.1111/1365-2656.12832.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2018
Citation:
Zhao, L., L.W. Sheppard, P.C. Reid, J.A. Walter, & D.C. Reuman. 2019. Proximate determinants of Taylor's Law slopes. Journal of Animal Ecology doi: 10.111/1365-02656.12931.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2018
Citation:
Anderson, T.L., J.A. Walter, T.D. Levine, S.P. Hendricks, K.A. Johnston, D.S. White, & D.C. Reuman. 2018. Using geography to infer the importance of dispersal for the synchrony of freshwater plankton. Oikos 127:402-414.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2018
Citation:
Walter, J.A., A.R. Ives, J.F. Tooker, & D.M. Johnson. 2018. Life history and habitat explain variation among insect populations subject to global change. Ecosphere doi: 10.1002/ecs2.2274.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Under Review
Year Published:
2019
Citation:
Karki, G., & J.A. Walter. In review. Spatial and temporal patterns of non-native fruit fly detections in California, USA. PeerJ.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Under Review
Year Published:
2019
Citation:
Walter, J.A., K.L. Grayson, L.M. Blackburn, P.C. Tobin, & D.M. Johnson. In review. Spatiotemporal variability in Allee effects of invading gypsy moth populations. Biological Invasions.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2019
Citation:
Sheppard, L.W., B. Mechtley, J.A. Walter, & D.C. Reuman. Under revision following review. Self-organizing cicada choruses respond to the local sound and light environment.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Under Review
Year Published:
2019
Citation:
Haynes, K.J., J.A. Walter, & A.M. Liebhold. In review. Population periodicity and low detuning with environmental forcing promote spatial synchrony among gypsy moth populations. Proceedings of the Royal Society B.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Submitted
Year Published:
2019
Citation:
Anderson, T.L., L.W. Sheppard, R.E. Rolley, & D.C. Reuman. Submitted. Synchronous effects produce major cycles in deer populations and deer-vehicle collisions. Science.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Submitted
Year Published:
2019
Citation:
Walter, J.A., P.D. Venugopal, L.W. Sheppard, D.C. Reuman, G. Dively, J.F. Tooker, & D.M. Johnson. Submitted. Effects of transgenic, insect-resistant crops on spatial synchrony and multi-decadal population trends of Lepidopteran pests. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2018
Citation:
Walter, J.A., A.R. Ives, J.F. Tooker, and D.M. Johnson. Life history and habitat explain variation among insect populations subject to global change. Entomology 2018, Vancouver, CA. Invited Talk.
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Progress 12/15/15 to 12/14/18
Outputs Target Audience: Academic scientists, state and federal agency officials involved in agriculture and natural resource management. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?This fellowship gave me much greater ownership over my career and allowed me to develop new collaborations. Beyond the core goals of this grant, I worked with Dan Reuman's lab at the University of Kansas to develop and apply new statistical tools for the study of synchrony in ecology. Synchrony has major importance to outbreaks of pests and disease. Some of these techniques were applied in the in-review manuscript addressing Goal 2, and have also been applied to gypsy moth outbreaks (Walter et al. 2017 "The geography of spatial synchrony"; five lepidopteran pests in Hungarian forests (Klaapwijk et al. 2018 "Transient synchrony among five foliage-feeding lepidoptera"; Haynes et al. in review "Population periodicity and low detuning with environmental forcing promote spatial synchrony among gypsy moth populations". I was able to travel to conferences and visit collaborators, which helped expand my network and develop new collaborations. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?I have published 14 and submitted 7 manuscripts during the grant period. I have given several talks at scientific and management-focused meetings. My collaborators include scientists with extension appointments who can use our research to bring added context to their extension work. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?
Nothing Reported
Impacts What was accomplished under these goals?
Goals 1 and 3 were addressed in Walter et al. (2018) "Life history and habitat explain variation among insect populations subject to global change." We characterized the multi-decadal population dynamic patters of >60 insect pests subject to changes in climate, land use, and agricultural and forestry practices, and showed that aspects of geography and life history could explain similarities in population dynamics. I found over the course of this project that limitations on data quality and availability made attributing patterns to specific mechanisms was not systematically possible. So Goal 2 was addressed using a subset of 16 agricultural pests having particularly good data. This work is currently in review at Agiculture, Ecosystems, & Environment. We found that changes in agriculture in the 1990s, largely related to the introduction of transgenic crops, caused changes in long-term population trends for many species. Synchronous, state-wide outbreaks of these pests were often related to spring and summer weather conditions.
Publications
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Progress 12/15/16 to 12/14/17
Outputs Target Audience:Scientists and resource managers Changes/Problems:I am unable to achieve Goal 4, projecting future impacts of crop and forest pests under climate change because the data did not allow the robust fitting of statistical models suitable to projecting future pest impacts under varying climatic conditions. I have turned my attention to studying spatial synchrony in insect outbreaks and other phenomena. Spatial synchrony is the quality of insect (and disease) outbreaks that characterizes their wide-spread, simultaneous damaging effects, and hence understanding causes of spatial synchrony has major fundamental science and applied significance. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?I spent a week visiting the lab of a collaborating mentor, Tony Ives at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, where I had the opportunity to work on analyses and network with members of his lab and other scientists at UW. Running my own research program, and having funding to support travel, has provided immense flexibility to develop new collaborations with several scientists. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?I have published 6 scientific papers and given several invited seminars at research institutions. I am a member of the Gypsy Moth Slow the Spread Foundation Technical committee, the scientific advisory board to the organization coordinating state and federal efforts to contain the gypsy moth invasion. Here I use my research expertise to advise a science-based management plan responding to changes in spread dynamics and funding restrictions. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?I will focus on publishing manuscripts reporting findings from goals 1-3 and 7 other in-prep manuscripts I have led or collaborated on with support from NIFA.
Impacts What was accomplished under these goals?
Goals 1, 2, and 3 have been addressed and manuscripts describing research findings are in review, or at the manuscript stage and being prepared for submission; see references below. Given the outcomes of goals 1-3, goal 4 proved to be unfeasible, and so attention was turned to other research avenues related to impacts of climate on population dynamics and the stability of ecological communities. Walter, JA, AR Ives, JF Tooker, DM Johnson (in review) Life history and habitat explain variation among insect populations subject to global change. Walter, JA, JF Tooker, DM Johnson (in prep) Long-term suppression of multiple lepidopteran pests by transgenic, insect-resistant crops.
Publications
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Walter, JA, LM Hallett, LW Sheppard, RJ Hobbs, KN Suding, DC Reuman (2017) Variation in spatial synchrony in a serpentine plant community. Ecological Society of America Annual Meeting, Portland, OR. Oral Presentation.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Awaiting Publication
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Anderson, TL, JA Walter, TD Levine, SP Hendricks, KA Johnston, DS White, DC Reuman (in press) Using geography to infer the importance of dispersal for the synchrony of freshwater plankton. Oikos.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Walter, JA, LW Sheppard, TL Anderson, JH Kastens, ON Bjornstad, AM Liebhold, DC Reuman (2017) The geography of spatial synchrony. Ecology Letters. doi: 10.1111/ele.12782.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Walter, JA, JC Neblett, JW Atkins, HE Epstein (2017) Regional and watershed scale analysis of red spruce habitat in the southeastern United States: implications for future restoration efforts. Plant Ecology 218, 305-316.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Foster, AE, JA Walter, J Siebold, JF Negron, HH Shugart (2017) Spectral evidence of early-stage spruce beetle infestation in Engelmann spruce. Forest Ecology and Management 384: 347-357.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
JA Walter, KL Grayson, DM Johnson (2017) Variation in Allee effects: evidence, unknowns, and directions forward. Population Ecology. doi: 10.1007/s10144-0576-3.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Walter, JA, AL Firebaugh, PC Tobin, KJ Haynes (2016) Invasion in patchy landscapes is affected by dispersal mortality and mate-finding failure. Ecology 97:3389-3401.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Under Review
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Anderson, TL, LW Sheppard, JA Walter, SP Hendricks, KA Johnston, TL Levine, DS White, DC Reuman (in review) Differentiating mechanisms of spatial synchrony in freshwater plankton. Limnology and Oceanography.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Under Review
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Klaapwijk, MJ, JA Walter, A Hirka, G Csoka, C Bjorkman, AM Liebhold (in review) Transient synchrony among five foliage-feeding Lepidoptera. Journal of Animal Ecology
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Under Review
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
JA Walter, AR Ives, J Tooker, DM Johnson (in review) Life history and habitat explain variation among insect populations subject to global change. Proceedings of the Royal Society-B
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Under Review
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Zhao, L, LW Sheppard, PC Reid, JA Walter, DC Reuman (in review) Proximate determinants of Taylor's law slopes. Ecology.
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Progress 12/15/15 to 12/14/16
Outputs Target Audience:Target audiences reached during this reporting period are scientists, managers, and students. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?The project has facilitated significant professional development opportunities as follows: expanding my network of collaborators, grantwriting, and mentorship of an undergraduate student researcher. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?A subset of results relevant to this project was presented at the annual meeting of the Ecological Society of America. In the process of building the pest database, I reached out to many extension agents who are now aware that this research is being conducted. A number of publications related to pest population dynamics, invasive insects, and climate change have been submitted to peer-reviewed journals. I mentored an undergraduate research student, who produced a publication-quality study on invasive fruit flies, which we plan to submit for publication in early 2017. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?I will continue analyzing the pest database I assembled to complete goals 1-3 and prepare manuscripts for publication. I will present results at the 2017Entomological Society of America conference. I will use results from goals 1-3 to develop the models to achieve goal 4.
Impacts What was accomplished under these goals?
Substantial progress toward objectives 1, 2 and 3 have been achieved, and submission of a manuscript representing a subset of these findings is anticipated by the end of 2016. I have documented a range of changes to pest population dynamics during recent decades, and evidence that pest characteristics may predict some patterns of change.
Publications
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Walter, J.A., L.W. Sheppard, J.H. Kastens, A.M. Liebhold, and D.C. Reuman. Biogeography of gypsy moth defoliation synchrony in the Northeastern US. Ecological Society of America, Ft. Lauderdale, FL, August 11, 2016. Oral presentation.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Awaiting Publication
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Walter, J.A., A.L. Firebaugh, P.C. Tobin, and K.J. Haynes. (in press). Invasion in patchy landscapes is affected by dispersal mortality and mate-finding failure. Ecology.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Awaiting Publication
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Foster, A.E., J.A. Walter, J. Siebold, J.F. Negron, and H.H. Shugart. (in press). Spectral evidence of early-stage spruce beetle infestation in Engelmann spruce. Forest Ecology and Management.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Under Review
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Walter, J.A., J.C. Neblett, J.W. Atkins, and H.E. Epstein. (in review). Regional and watershed scale analysis of current and future suitable habitat for red spruce in the Central Appalachian Mountains.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Under Review
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Walter, J.A., K.L. Grayson, and D.M. Johnson. (in review). Variation in Allee effects: evidence, unknowns, and directions forward.
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