Recipient Organization
CLEMSON UNIVERSITY
(N/A)
CLEMSON,SC 29634
Performing Department
South Carolina Water Resources Center
Non Technical Summary
Numerous research projects have been completed concerning the Savannah River Basin over the past few decades (Badr, Wachob, Gellici, 2004; Flight, Eidson, Moak, Metts, Seffick, 2007; Wachob, Park, Newsome, 2009; Moak, Metts, Seffick, Eidson, Flight, 2010; Allen, Carey, Dickes, Saltzman, Allen, 2010; Carey, Dickes, Saltzman, Allen, 2011; Smith, 2014; Van Den Hurk, 2014). These studies have ranged from ecological assessments of various plant and animal species, environmental and economic impact studies of various industries within the basin, water quality and water quantity analyses, tracking of toxic substances, land use and population projections, monitoring with new technologies and economic impacts of changing lake levels.Recently, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers completed a Phase I study on hydrologic modeling of the flows throughout the basin and a Phase II study that was intended to incorporate environmental, social and economic considerations of river basin management. In addition the Army Corps is in the process of completing a study of the Savannah Harbor as part of an environmental impact assessment related to potential dredging of the harbor and the impact of the dredging on dissolved oxygen levels. Concurrently, the S.C. Department of Natural Resources and the S.C. Department of Health and Environmental Control are undertaking a hydrologic modeling study to determine water availability within all of the state's eight major river basins including the Savannah. Clemson University is in the process of completing one of the largest monitoring projects ever undertaken within the Savannah Basin. The Intelligent River project seeks to bring real-time monitoring of physical river conditions to the hands of managers and decision-makers. This is accomplished through a computerized buoy in the river equipped with sensors to monitor variables such as temperature, pH, conductivity, sediment and others. The information can then be directed through a cell phone relay network to a centralized data processing center.All of the above-mentioned research projects and programs are important to understanding the various natural and physical processes taking place within the Savannah River Basin (SRB). However, no single project has attempted to build a framework of understanding that will take into consideration such things as agricultural and forestry land use, flow conditions and economic parameters regarding both the land use and flow conditions. The proposed study will attempt to provide this framework and thereby provide a platform of understanding how agriculture and forestry fit into the broader decision-making taking place within the SRB.?The previous section outlined some, but by no means all, of the major issues facing the SRB. This assessment project would work to develop the knowledge base necessary to better understand the complex relationships between ecological, economic, environmental and social factors in the basin and their connection to agriculture and forestry practices. The primary applied research objective is to support the policy planning and management processes of critical issues facing the basin and its stakeholders, with particular emphasis on the agricultural and forest industries. While this research is primarily focused on the aforementioned industries, a secondary research objective is to provide information the rural communities affected by watershed policy decisions. The aim is to provide quantitative and scientifically credible answers to the following key research questions:How does changing agricultural and forest land use relate to critical environmental, ecological, socio-economic and demographic impacts within the SRB?How do changing uses of the SRB impact land use and county zoning efforts within the basin? What is the direction of causation: land use impacts the SRB and its uses or changing characteristics and uses of the SRB impact land use?How are these impacts expected to change under projected climate, demand, and land use changes?What types of policy and management strategies can be put into place to mitigate these impacts? What types of strategies can achieve sustainable development, considering all of the region's economic, environmental, natural and social resources?These research questions will be addressed more specifically by:Documenting the changing environmental, ecological, socio-economic and demographic patterns within the SRB. Federal, state, and local data sources will be collected to present a more comprehensive picture of SRB changes over the past 20 years. Data sources will include county level data where possible from the US Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Environmental Protection Agency, SC DHEC and others.Developing a detailed history, including appropriate maps of land use and zoning changes in key areas of the basin. This will require utilizing quantitative and qualitative methods to gather the appropriate data and policy changes. Appropriate land use and county zoning data will be key data sources.Estimating agriculture and forestry impacts given existing projections of land use, consumer and industry demand, and climate changes. These estimates will be quantitative projections using existing data of the changes described above and existing climate models.Creating a policy framework to document and clarify the types of policy and management efforts that improve long-term resource use and community sustainability.
Animal Health Component
70%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
15%
Applied
70%
Developmental
15%
Goals / Objectives
The goals of the project are to provide quantitative and scientifically credible answers to the following key research questions:How does changing agricultural and forest land use relate to critical environmental, ecological, socio-economic and demographic impacts within the SRB?How do changing uses of the SRB impact land use and county zoning efforts within the basin? What is the direction of causation: land use impacts the SRB and its uses or changing characteristics and uses of the SRB impact land use?How are these impacts expected to change under projected climate, demand, and land use changes?What types of policy and management strategies can be put into place to mitigate these impacts? What types of strategies can achieve sustainable development, considering all of the region's economic, environmental, natural and social resources?
Project Methods
Modeling the impacts of differing and highly variable ecological constraints will require a range of methodological tools, including econometrics, operations research and computational optimization, as well as other statistical modeling techniques. This project will piggy-back on a concurrent study funded through the SC Water Resources Center titled "Effect of Climate and Land Use Change on Water Availability for the Savannah River Basin" by Ashok Mishra in Clemson's Civil Engineering department. Mishra's study is attempting to understand how climate change and land use management practices have affected the availability of surface water at the sub-basin level within the SRB. Using a hydrologic model, a water availability index will be developed to determine water availability in the region. Mishra's study will provide critical land use change data as well as stream flow data that will be utilized with economic impact models to determine impacts of agriculture and forestry practices within the basin.In addition to quantitative modeling, a comprehensive policy scan and review will be conducted to develop a river basin water policy framework to document and model the local, county and state policy that play a direct and indirect role in the changing demand and supply of water in the SRB.Optimization ModelsOptimization models will provide a critical foundation for this research. These models help scientists to understand and manage outputs in the face of risk and uncertainty. Prescriptive models will be developed that identify optimal levels of key decision variables for specific SRB management objectives given ecological and other constraints. Such models will also assess the sensitivity of the system to changes in the values of these decision variables. Ultimately we envision a circular framework where data and constraints feed modeling tools for decision makers, while their policies serve as additional model inputs for further refined decision-making.Along with optimization models, multivariate regression models will be used to explore the relationship between water availability and forestry and agricultural land use, along with other industrial uses. Similar to other resources, one of the ongoing questions that occurs as resources become increasingly scarce, relates to the directional impacts among variables. For example, we understand that a decrease in water availability potentially impacts industry sector use, while changes in sectoral use also impact water availability. The significance of these directional impacts will aid in developing a policy and management framework for enhanced resource decision-making. Additionally, understanding the relative sectoral impacts provides additional insight.Economic Impact AnalysisIn addition to optimization models, this research network provides an opportunity to explore the overall economic impact of the Savannah River Basin on the region. To date, this has not been quantified using input-output or general equilibrium modeling. Economic impact models can provide detailed analysis concerning, employment, income, and local government fiscal impacts from a specific stimulus. This analysis can be instructive for private and public stakeholders in creating or modifying policy and implementing specific management strategies. In order to model the economic impacts of varying flow regimes, longitudinal sales tax revenue and real estate transactions data will be collected for the sample South Carolina and sample Georgia counties in the SRB. In addition, a variety of control variables will be utilized in the initial modeling to control for other local, regional and state economic activity.The overarching goal of the economic analysis will be to assess various economic changes within the specified region in relation to changes in flow levels. The flow levels are those used from the water availability index created by Ashok Mishra's civil engineering team. The water availability index takes into consideration the water requirements throughout the basin for all agriculture and forestry practices. Emphasis will be placed on isolating flow level impacts while controlling for outside economic factors.