Source: NORTH CAROLINA STATE UNIV submitted to NRP
THE TRANSFORMATION OF ECONOMIC SECTORS IN NORTH CAROLINA
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
COMPLETE
Funding Source
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
1007551
Grant No.
(N/A)
Cumulative Award Amt.
(N/A)
Proposal No.
(N/A)
Multistate No.
(N/A)
Project Start Date
Oct 1, 2015
Project End Date
Sep 30, 2020
Grant Year
(N/A)
Program Code
[(N/A)]- (N/A)
Recipient Organization
NORTH CAROLINA STATE UNIV
(N/A)
RALEIGH,NC 27695
Performing Department
Agricultural and Resource Economics
Non Technical Summary
The project will provide forecasts of how the North Carolina economy might change in the next several decades. Changes in production, employment, earnings, and trade will be emphasized. The analysis will be performed at both the aggregate state level as well as the regional levels in the state. In short, the project will provide a look into how the state's residents will live, work, earn, and spend in the future. Implications for state policy leaders - particularly in education - will be emphasized.
Animal Health Component
100%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
(N/A)
Applied
100%
Developmental
(N/A)
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
60861993010100%
Goals / Objectives
The expected transformation of the North Carolina will be explored and analyzed for impacts on firm production, employment, educational requirements, and public policy.
Project Methods
The study will use the predictions of analysts who have identified macroeconomic trends behind changes in the world, national, and state economy. These predictions will be studied and combined to develop "trend movers" used to economic sector outlooks. The trend movers will be applied to both the aggregate North Carolina economy as well as regional components of the state economy.

Progress 10/01/15 to 09/30/20

Outputs
Target Audience:Economic develpment leaders in North Carolina counties and at the state levels; members of the North Carolina General Assembly; Governor's Office, North Carolina Chamber of Commerce Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Dr. Walden discussed these issues in front of numerous groups in North Carolina, including business persons, elected officials, community leaders, and interested residents. Dr. Walden averaged 80 presentations annually with a yearly audience count of 2500 persons. Dr. Walden also discussed the issues in daily radio programs aired across North Carolina and in biweekly and monthly newspaper and magazine articles. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Dr. Walden has held an average of 80 local community meetings annually throughout North Carolina. He has also utilized the media (radio broadcasts, TV appearances, and newspaper and magazine articles) to reach communities and residents. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? 1. The future progress of the North Carolina was forecasted through mid-century. 2. Challenges were identified in generating improvements in prosperity over upcoming decades. 3. Policy initiatives were recommended; these policy initiatives were published in the book, "North Carolina Beyond the Connected Age: The TarHeel State in 2050 (The UNC Press), and in the NCFIRST Commission report on transportation financing.

Publications

  • Type: Other Status: Under Review Year Published: 2020 Citation: NC FIRST (Future Investment Resources for Sustainable Transportation; Dr. Walden is a member), Final Commission Report, December 2020.


Progress 10/01/18 to 09/30/19

Outputs
Target Audience:Economic development professionals, elected and appointed county leaders, county groups such as Chambers of Commerce, and the general public. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Several categories of professionals, including financial services members, accountants, economic development professionals, and extension professionals, have received training and information related to the findings of this project. In 2019, an estimated 3000 indiviudals were exposed in-person to this information through meetings and workshops. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Newspaper articles, radio programs, and in-person presentations have been used to disseminate the findings from this project. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Work during the next reporting period will focus on the development of alternative measures of economic change in North Carolina, including reconcilation of measures giving alternative results.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? It was found that North Carolina's labor market has experienced a "hollowing-out" during the 21st century. "Hollowing-out" occurs when high and low incomeoccupational categories expand at the expense of middle income occupational categories. It was also found this phenenom has occurred in North Carolina to a greater extent than in the nation. Further, the "hollowing-out" has been largely responsible for the observed "urban-rural" diviide in the state around changes in standards of living.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Walden, Michael L. "Hollowing-Out in North Carolina: Measurement and Causes," Review of Regional Studies, Vol. 49, No. 1.
  • Type: Books Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2020 Citation: Real Solutions: Commonsense Ideas for Solving Our Most Pressing Problems"


Progress 10/01/17 to 09/30/18

Outputs
Target Audience:North Carolina state policy-makers, particularly in the Department of Commerce, the Public-Private Economic Development Partnership, and the General Assembly. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Nothing Reported How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Findings have been disseminted to communities and policy-makers through print and air media (45 programs total) and meetings and workshops (32 meetings total). What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?The next reporting period will focus on transporation's role in economic development; in particular, the challenge of transportation funding during a period of change in transportation fuels and means.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? A book was published forecasting changes in various dimensions of the state economy through 2050. Journal articles were published analyyzing changes in North Carolina's recent occupational and regional structures. The findings have been communicated to policy-makers through a variety of methods, including public meetings and media programs.

Publications

  • Type: Books Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: North Carolina Beyond the Connected Age: The Tar Hell State in 2050, The University of North Carolina Press, 2017, 176 pages.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Walden, Michael L. Occupational Change and Technological Unemployment in North Carolina, Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Vol. 48, no. 1, 2018, pp. 12-22.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2019 Citation: Walden, Michael L. Labor Market Hollowing-Out in North Carolina: Measurement and Causes, The Review of Regional Studies, forthcoming.


Progress 10/01/16 to 09/30/17

Outputs
Target Audience:Public and private decision makers in North Carolina and the US who are involved in creating economic opportunities in North Carolina. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Nothing Reported How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Information has been disseminated though extension methods, including personal presenations, radio programs, newspaper articles and interviews, and media interviews. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Research industries poised to expand North Carolina's economy. Explore the impacts of demographic changes on North Carolina's economic prospects. Calibrate per capita income growth for North Carolina and compare it to other regions.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? A book and two journal articles were published or reviewed for publication.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2018 Citation: Walden, Michael L. Labor Market Hollowing-Out in North Carolina: Measurement a Walden, Michael L. Labor Market Hollowing-Out in North Carolina: Measurement a Walden, Michael L. "Labor Market Hollowing-Out in North Carolina: Measurement and Causes, The Review of Regional Studies.


Progress 10/01/15 to 09/30/16

Outputs
Target Audience:Target audience is academics interested in regional economic development and public and private decision-makers involved in economic development in North Carolina Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Information developed in the book has been used in public presentations to a variety of public and private leaders in North Carolina. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Yes - print, radio, and televsion media have been used in dissemination of the information. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Final editing will take place for the book. New work focusing on the business cycle in North Carolina will be commenced.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? The book, "Beyond the Connected Age; North Carolina in 2050" was completed and sent to the publisher (The University of North Carolina Press).

Publications

  • Type: Books Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2017 Citation: Michael L. Walden, Beyond the Connected Age; North Carolina in 2050. The University of North Carolina Press, 2017