Progress 10/01/15 to 09/30/16
Outputs
Target Audience:The target audience was successfully reached at the conferences, where the audience includes the academic colleagues (students,professors, and researchers)in the Agricultural Economics field from the universities across the country, governmental organizationsand the representatives of the relevant associations such as USDA - ERS, USDA - Office of Chief Economist, and Farm Bureau. Changes/Problems:No major changes or problems in the line of research. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?The developed and presented papers are in the process of being turned into manuscript for publication in journals. The topics spurred new research by my graduate students. The research was also instrumental in developing further studies that are submitted for other grants. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?The results have been disseminated to the dairy industry, research colleagues, students, and USDA professionals. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Continue to progress in turning presented papers into manuscripts and submitting the manuscripts for publications in journals. Finishing research together with my graduate students and preparing manuscripts for publication. Desseminate the results of our studies at the academic,professional, and industryconferences.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
Developed a study thatcontributes to the literature by quantifying the independent optimal hedge horizons for corn, soybean meal, and hog hedges in a wean-to-finish hog operation. Another contributions of the paper is that we assess the effect of the insurance programs (Livestock Gross Margin - Swine) for the hog producers enacted by the Agricultural Act of 2014 on the optimal hedge horizons. Developed and presented a paper on the potential impacts of the TTIP on the U.S. and EU cheese industry. A spatial equilibrium model of the cheese trade is constructed and empirically specified in GAMS. Bilateral trade amongst important cheese exporting and importing countries are selected for the analysis (the United States, Europe, East Asia, Southeast Asia, and Africa). The model uses the data from 2010-2014 period and simulates the impact of the TTIP on the U.S. cheese industry by analyzing the industry before and after alternative outcome scenarios.The preliminary results suggest that in case of decreased tariff rates levied on U.S. cheese imports by EU, U.S. cheese exports to EU increase insignificantly. However, if decreased tariff rates are coupled with liberalization of GI certification, U.S. exports significantly expand not just to EU, but to East Asia, Southeast Asia, and Africa. EU's cheese exports to Africa stay unaffected, but a decrease in exports to Asia occur. Developed and presented anarticle where I evaluatethe risk management effectiveness using different hedging horizons. The preliminary results show that hedging with more deferred contracts can substantially reduce dairy price and margin risk. Developed and presented apaper that investigates the effect of the crop price changes and the impact of the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) on the land allocation decisions in the traditionally wheat, corn, and soybean producing states of the United States (U.S.) encompassing Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. Price shocks in one crop affect not only its own supply response but those of the other crops, which compete for the same arable land.In summary, the results indicate that the expansion of corn production is happening at the expense of other crops such as soybeans and wheat while wheat competes for acreage with hay.
Publications
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Two Journal Articles:
Vorotnikova, E., and S. Devadoss. 2016 Competitive Advantages of the West Coast Dairy Exports. International Food and Agribusiness Management Review 19(B), 37-56.
Alvarez S., S. Asci and E. Vorotnikova. 2016 Valuing the Potential Benefits of Water Quality Improvements in Watersheds Affected by Non-Point Source Pollution Water 8(4), 112; doi:10.3390/w8040112
Six Conference Papers and Presentations
Vorotnikova, E., S. Asci. 2016. The impact of CRP and crop prices on land allocation: a differential model panel data application Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA) Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, MA.
Bozic, M., E. Vorotnikova, C. Cook. 2016. Futures term structure based unit root test for agribusiness crush margins and implications for optimal hedging strategies Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA) Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, MA.
Vorotnikova, E. 2016. Valuation of 2014 Farm Bill insurance products, MPP and LGM Options Approach Economics and Management of Risk in Agriculture and Natural Resources, SCC-76 Annual Meeting March 17-20, Pensacola, FL
Bozic, M., E. Vorotnikova, and R. Johansson (2016) The Theory of Optimal Hedging Horizons and Application to Dairy Risk Management in the United States NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management, April 20-21, St Louis, MO.
Grieb, T., N. Hoang, and E. Vorotnikova (2016), Measuring the Effects of Price Shocks on Cash-Futures Basis using a Bayesian VAR Model Academy of Economics and Finance Conference, February 10-13, Pensacola, FL.
Vorotnikova, E. (2016), Hedging and Optimal Storage Capacity Allocation in Grain Merchandizing Southern Agricultural Economics Association (SAEA) Conference Feb 2-5, San Antonio, TX.
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Progress 07/01/15 to 09/30/15
Outputs
Target Audience:A conference paper was presented onValuation of 2014 Farm Bill dairy insurance products (MPP or LGM)and their feasible for dairy producers in the Pacific Northwest at theAgricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA) Annual Meetingin July.The target auidience was succesfully outreached at the conference where the audience includesthe academics in this field, governmental entities and the representative of the relevant associations. In addition, this conference paperand the future collaboration possibilities are shared and discussed with Idaho Dairyman Association representatives in early September. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?The study was presented at the AAEA conference in July 2015: Vorotnikova, E. (2015),"Valuation of 2014 Farm Bill insurance products - which program is more feasible for dairy producers in the Pacific Northwest: MPP or LGM?" Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA) Annual MeetingJuly 26-28, San Francisco, CA How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?The conference paper was shared with Idaho Dairyman Association for dissemination purpose and the possibility for future collaboration with the Association and its members. The results were also shared with representatives from Dairy Markets And Policy. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?During the next period, the studies onLand allocation and the option price model,Investment decision and asset allocation,Pension funds,Futures and volatility in spot market prices and the impact of new trade policies on dairy will be developed. The conference paper onInsurance policy choice as a risk management strategy will be submitted for a journal publication.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
In this period,I evaluated twoinsurance policiesavailable to dairyproducers through Farm Bill 2014 in order torisk manage succesfullythe dairy farms of various sizes.A manuscript wasprepared for publication on this topic.
Publications
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2015
Citation:
Vorotnikova, E. (2015), Valuation of 2014 Farm Bill insurance products which program is more feasible for dairy producers in the Pacific Northwest: MPP or LGM? Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA) Annual Meeting July 26-28, San Francisco, CA
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