Progress 06/23/15 to 09/30/19
Outputs
Target Audience:The target audience is academic, amateur and the public at large. Global warming has become the dominant scientific paradigm in vegetation science, shifting the focus from the understanding of steady-state ecological functioning and dynamics to future change of ecosystems. But one is dependent on the other. An important question is whether it is prudent to bypass empirical research toward futuristic modeling experiments that are also based on another layer of climate change modeling. Where does empiricism begin and end? These predictive efforts--time-to-space substitution--risk similar hazards of time-to-space substitution which plague retrospective studies similarly challenged by historical data. The specific hypothesis at hand is whether future climate change will drive plant species and assemblages both poleward and to higher elevations. Without real time verification, vegetation forecast models are an untested exercise; proper science requires empirical testing of the global warming hypothesis. Mapping the complexity of nature at high resolution has recently been made possible using Google Earth which permits rapid efficient inventory both spatially and temporally. Google Earth has also become the library of aerial imagery for the world, and this database will grow rapidly in the time frame of 21st century global climate model simulations. The maps in this atlas should be viewed as a single time slice in an evolutionary process of building upon previous work, through continual refinement with improvement of imagery quality and for long-term vegetation change. Vegetation science should follow the map-making tradition of bedrock substrate inventory in the geological sciences since William Smith in the early 19th century. The maps in this research can be refined or redefined for a wide range of research hypotheses because this analysis is shown with the original vegetation on Google Earth imagery. Revisions can be efficiently undertaken because aerial imagery record is archived as a library on the Google Earth platform, and new data can be entered electronically. The maps are the first comprehensive baseline since the Vegetation Type Map Survey (VTM) of 1929-34, and the first baseline for forest and woodland vegetation on the Baja California peninsula. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?The methods and approaches of this research can be applied anywhere because of Google Earth's comprehensive global coverage of imagery. The analysis in this atlas led to an evolutionary development of methods that would permit broad scale inventory of tree species anywhere. While this effort did not directly lead to training and professional development at UCR, there is great potential to expand professional training elsewhere. Every region in the world has ecologists with skilled local background in imagery interpretation. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?It is the intent to disseminate the results of this research in a single electronic book to test and refine maps using a "community on-line atlas" using the Google earth platform. In an electronic format that georeferences this vegetation polygon analysis with the original vegetation data on Google Earth, maps can be taken into the field or in the laboratory using mobile electronic devices and computers. Maps can be reconstructed and redefined at high resolution for individual purposes, and with the history function one can evaluate the fate of individuals and plant assemblages over time. Maps can be examined in the field using a mobile device or in the laboratory. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?
Nothing Reported
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
The atlas is a compilation of unprecedented high resolution maps of 85 tree species in the three Californias along the North American Pacific coast--California south of San Francisco, Baja California and Baja California Sur--interpreted from Google EarthTM imagery. These species represent diverse plant assemblages found in the western North America including California oak woodland, Mexican oak woodland, riparian forest, palm oases, closed-cone conifer forest, mixed evergreen forest, mixed conifer forest, subalpine forest and pinyon-juniper woodland. Google Earth is transformative platform for broad scale ecological research. The capacity of virtual scaling permits the viewing of vegetation at high resolution both at large scales for broad spatial pattern, and local scales for taxonomy, population characteristics, and map accuracy. Imagery quality permits the identification of tree species on the basis of resolution, morphological properties, color, and shadows. With virtual scaling, maps can be created and examined for relationships between broad scale distributions and local populations. This atlas contributes a new kind of map. This survey based on an analysis connects tree distributions with of aerial imagery archived on the Google Earth platform. Simultaneously, one can both see boundary data of species as an overlay of imagery that shows the distribution and visual properties of that species. The objectives accomplished include: (1) the extension of California tree distributions to their limits in Mexico; the documentation of a broad transition of California species in Mediterranean climate to Mexican species in summer rain climates of Baja California; the realization of a "living atlas" on an ideal platform of Google Earth, for correction, revision, and to trace future vegetation change from climate change, disturbance, pathogenic perturbations; the capacity of compare species dynamics in two countries with divergent land policies from which data can be used to modify the use of the biota in both countries; and to present a methodological approach with Google Earth that can be applied globally. For each species, new maps with unprecedented resolution are presented with discussion of the late Cretaceous and Cenozoic fossil record, patterns of disturbance, especially from fires and floods, and changes in distribution since the last ice age maximum 20,000 years ago. The final maps are generally consistent with the VTM survey 80 years ago. However, this analysis also resulted in 31 range expansions of well-known tree species that are unknown to science, largely because Google Earth imagery provides high resolution data in inaccessible terrain. In ecological science, recent interest in global warming has shifted paradigms from the understanding steady-state dynamics of ecosystems toward future change of ecosystems. But one is dependent on the other. An important question is whether it is prudent to bypass empirical research toward modeled vegetation experiments that are also based on models of climate change. Predictive modelling efforts--space-to-time substitution--risk similar hazards of time-to-space substitution which plague retrospective studies similarly challenged by historical data. To diminish the limitations of both approaches it is important to consider historical evidence for calibration of models predicting vegetation change. The Google Earth platform allows for spatially-explicit, time-series inventory of these research questions at regional scales. Natural ecosystems can be appraised probabilistically, accepting that nature does not follow rules without uncertainty by exhibiting some degree of randomness in space and time. The testing of long-term vegetation change would immeasurably benefit by the posting of the earliest aerial photographic record on Google Earth. Since the earliest imagery of the Californias dates to the 1920s and 1930s such an effort would extend the California baseline nearly 60 years beyond present postings. For long-lived forest species, an enlarged time line offers legitimate testing on the effects of global warming on distributions including the separation of steady states from directional change of permanence. By 2100 the Google Earth imagery library would comprise a 170 year baseline. The complexity of future forests will be ineffectually modeled by simulation methodologies, particularly when there is no empirical verification until the verification date decades into the future. The integration of Google Earth, field science and modeling experiments would the best of all possibilities in the development of broad-scale ecological science that addresses the natural complexity of ecosystems and their future change.
Publications
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Progress 10/01/17 to 09/30/18
Outputs
Target Audience:The target audience is academic, amateur and the public at large. Global warming has become the dominant scientific paradigm in vegetation science, shifting the focus from the understanding of steady-state ecological functioning and dynamics to future change of ecosystems. But one is dependent on the other. An important question is whether it is prudent to bypass empirical research toward futuristic modeling experiments that are also based on another layer of climate change modeling. Where does empiricism begin and end? These predictive efforts--time-to-space substitution--risk similar hazards of time-to-space substitution which plague retrospective studies similarly challenged by historical data. The specific hypothesis at hand is whether future climate change will drive plant species and assemblages both poleward and to higher elevations. Without real time verification, vegetation forecast models are an untested exercise; proper science requires empirical testing of the global warming hypothesis. Mapping the complexity of nature at high resolution has recently been made possible using Google Earth which permits rapid efficient inventory both spatially and temporally. Google Earth has also become the library of aerial imagery for the world, and this database will grow rapidly in the time frame of 21st century global climate model simulations. The maps in this atlas should be viewed as a single time slice in an evolutionary process of building upon previous work, through continual refinement with improvement of imagery quality and for long-term vegetation change. Vegetation science should follow the map-making tradition of bedrock substrate inventory in the geological sciences since William Smith in the early 19th century. The maps in this research can be refined or redefined for a wide range of research hypotheses because this analysis is shown with the original vegetation on Google Earth imagery. Revisions can be efficiently undertaken because aerial imagery record is archived as a library on the Google Earth platform, and new data can be entered electronically. The maps represent the first comprehensive revision since the Vegetation Type Map Survey (VTM) of 1929-34 in California and the first comprehensive baseline for the Baja California peninsula. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?The methods and approaches of this research can be applied anywhere because of Google Earth's comprehensive global coverage of imagery. The analysis in this atlas led to an evolutionary development of methods that would permit broad scale inventory of tree species anywhere. While this effort did not directly lead to training and professional development at UCR, there is great potential to expand professional training elsewhere. Every region in the world has ecologists with skilled local background in imagery interpretation. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?It is the intent to disseminate the results of this research in a single electronic book to test and refine maps using a "community on-line atlas" using the Google earth platform. In an electronic format that georeferences this vegetation polygon analysis with the original vegetation data on Google Earth, maps can be taken into the field or in the laboratory using mobile electronic devices and computers. Maps can be reconstructed and redefined at high resolution for individual purposes, and with the history function one can evaluate the fate of individuals and plant assemblages over time. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Based on the informal review of my book manuscript, I will map tree distributions in the Sierra Nevada, northern Mojave Desert, and the San Joaquin Valley. One consequence will be the addition of nine new species found exclusively in these areas, giving a total of 85 tree species for the entire atlas. The book manuscript will be revised to accommodate new map data.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
With the posting of new imagery on Google Earth, tree species mapshave been expanded to include the three Californias along the Pacific coast: California (north to the latitude of San Francisco), as well as Baja California and Baja California Sur in Mexico. The enlarged mapping area of this survey permits the completion of California tree species southward along the Baja California peninsula instead of the US-Mexico political boundary. The area was also expanded because free-burning (no fire management) in Mexico results in different biomass burning outcomes compared to that under fire suppression in California. At this writing, maps of 76 species were completed as well as the preparation of first draft of a book entitled Tree Atlas of the Californias. The manuscript is organized accordingly: Google Earth and vegetation science, Geology and climate, Cenozoic climate and paleo vegetation history, Botanical exploration, Google Earth methods, Atlas of tree species, Species changes since the last glacial maximum, and Conclusions. For each species, new maps with unprecedented resolution are presented with discussion of the late Cretaceous and Cenozoic fossil record, patterns of disturbance, especially from fires and floods, and changes in distribution since the last ice age maximum 20,000 years ago. The final maps are generally consistent with the VTM survey 80 years ago. However, this analysis also resulted in 25 range expansions of well-known tree species that are unknown to science, largely because Google Earth imagery provides high resolution data in inaccessible terrain. The manuscript was read informally by a faculty at the University of California, Riverside. The primary criticism was to expand this analysis to include the California Sierra Nevada, northern Mojave Desert and the San Joaquin Valley (northward to lat. 38.05 °N), an area that had low quality imagery until very recently. The completion of this atlas will require the addition of map data in these areas.
Publications
- Type:
Book Chapters
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Minnich, R.A., B.R. Goforth, and T.D. Paine. Follow the water: Extreme drought and the conifer forest pandemic of 2002-2003 along the California borderland. In T.D. Paine, F. Lieutier (eds.) Insects and diseases of Mediterranean Forest Systems, DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-24744-1_29
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Progress 10/01/16 to 09/30/17
Outputs
Target Audience:The target audience is academic, amateur and the public at large. Global warming has become the dominant scientific paradigm in vegetation science, shifting the focus from the understanding of steady-state ecological functioning and dynamics to future change of ecosystems. But one is dependent on the other. An important question is whether it is prudent to bypass empirical research toward futuristic modeling experiments that are also based on another layer of climate change modeling. Where does empiricism begin and end? These predictive efforts--time-to-space substitution--risk similar hazards of time-to-space substitution which plague retrospective studies similarly challenged by historical data. The specific hypothesis at hand is whether future climate change will drive plant species and assemblages both poleward and to higher elevations. Without real time verification, vegetation forecast models are an untested exercise; proper science requires empirical testing of the global warming hypothesis. Mapping the complexity of nature at high resolution has recently been made possible using Google Earth which permits rapid efficient inventory both spatially and temporally. Google Earth has also become the library of aerial imagery for the world, and this database will grow rapidly in the time frame of 21st century global climate model simulations.The maps in this atlas should be viewed as a single time slice in an evolutionary process of building upon previous work, through continual refinement with improvement of imagery quality and for long-term vegetation change. Vegetation science should follow the map-making tradition of bedrock substrate inventory in the geological sciences since William Smith in the early 19th century. The maps in this research can be refined or redefined for a wide range of research hypotheses because this analysis is shown with the original vegetation on Google Earth imagery. Revisions can be efficiently undertaken because aerial imagery record is archived as a library on the Google Earth platform, and new data can be entered electronically. The maps are the first comprehensive baseline since the Vegetation Type Map Survey (VTM) of 1929-34. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?The methods and approaches of this research can be applied anywhere because of Google Earth's comprehensive global coverage of imagery. The analysis in this atlas led to an evolutionary development of methods that would permit broad scale inventory of tree species anywhere. While this effort did not directly lead to training and professional development at UCR, there is great potential to expand professional training elsewhere. Every region in the world has ecologists with skilled local background in imagery interpretation. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?It is the intent to disseminate the results of this research in a single electronic book to test and refine maps using a "community on-line atlas" using the Google earth platform. In an electronic format that georeferences this vegetation polygon analysis with the original vegetation data on Google Earth, maps can be taken into the field or in the laboratory using mobile electronic devices and computers. Maps can be reconstructed and redefined at high resolution for individual purposes, and with the history function one can evaluate the fate of individuals and plant assemblages over time. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Based on the informal review of my book manuscript, I will map tree distributions in the Sierra Nevada, northern Mojave Desert, and the San Joaquin Valley. One consequence will be the addition of nine new species found exclusively in these areas, giving a total of 85 tree species for the entire atlas. The book manuscript will be revised to accommodate new map data.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
With the posting of new imagery on Google Earth, tree species mapshave been expanded to include the three Californias along the Pacific coast: California (north to the latitude of San Francisco), and Baja California and Baja California Sur in Mexico. The enlarged mapping area of this survey permits the completion of California tree species southward along the Baja California peninsula instead of the US-Mexico political boundary. The area was also expanded because free-burning (no fire management) in Mexico results in different biomass burning outcomes compared to that under fire suppression in California. At this writing, maps of 76 species were completed as well as the preparation of first draft of a book entitled Tree Atlas of the Californias. The manuscript is organized accordingly: Google Earth and vegetation science, Geology and climate, Cenozoic climate and paleo vegetation history, Botanical exploration, Google Earth methods, Atlas of tree species, Species changes since the last glacial maximum, and Conclusions. For each species, new maps with unprecedented resolution are presented with discussion of the late Cretaceous and Cenozoic fossil record, patterns of disturbance, especially from fires and floods, and changes in distribution since the last ice age maximum 20,000 years ago. The final maps are generally consistent with the VTM survey 80 years ago. However, this analysis also resulted in 25 range expansions of well-known tree species that are unknown to science, largely because Google Earth imagery provides high resolution data in inaccessible terrain. The manuscript was read informally by a faculty at the University of California, Riverside. The primary criticism was to expand this analysis to include the California Sierra Nevada, northern Mojave Desert and the San Joaquin Valley (northward to lat. 38.05 °N), an area that had low quality imagery until very recently. The completion of this atlas will require the addition of map data in these areas.
Publications
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Progress 10/01/15 to 09/30/16
Outputs
Target Audience:Since the final product will be a series of maps in an atlas and the project establishes the use of Google Earth as a basis of mapping analysis, the intended target audience will be broad and will include academic professionals in ecology, biogeography, taxonomy plant pathology and entomology, as well as in remote sensing and geographic information systems. The atlas is also targeted for those involved of land conservation, management and planning both in the public and private sectors. Maps will also attract amateur interest in the biological sciences. Changes/Problems:As previously stated, this project has expanded from southern California to cover central California west of the central Valley and the Baja California peninsula. The enlarged area of range has increased the insight of species-environmental relationships in California and the adjacent Baja California peninsula. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?I have self-trained myself and created vegetation maps for most of my career. The Google Earth platform has allowed me to generate vegetation maps at much greater speed and accuracy than under separated remote sensing and geographic information systems technologies. The union of remote sensing and geographic information systems is the crowning achievement of Google Earth. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?To date I have given seminars on Google Earth vegetation analysis on campus at the University of California Riverside. Before this project I had published vegetation maps using Google Earth as part of research studies on palm oases, and chaparral in Baja California. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?For the coming reporting period, my primary effort will focus on the preparation and completion of a book manuscript for publication. To date the writing of the first draft is nearly complete. Species range maps need to be prepared to publication standards. My goal is to have this atlas published in an electronic format so that maps can be shown using the Google Earth platform. This will allow the reader to associate polygon data with the raw data on imagery, just as I saw it in my survey. Not only will the reader be able to view species ranges, but also recognize them from their morphological properties seen on imagery (an aerial photograph trainer). Species properties are also described in reference tables. This effort can be a model for vegetation mapping in other regions globally.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
Maps of 77 tree species have been completed or at near completion. A few species were recently revised with the posting of new high quality imagery on Google Earth. Because many California tree species ranges extend past the US-Mexican boundary, mapping was also extended to include California species ranges to their ultimate southern limits in the Baja California peninsula. This led to the mapping of members of Mexican pine-oak woodlands and palm oases species found in the southern and central peninsula of Baja California using Google Earth imagery. The product comprises unprecedented unparalleled high resolution maps. Compared with maps based on ground-based botanical collections and vegetation surveys, the vantage and "access" into remote regions provided by aerial photography and space imagery of Google Earth in California and Baja California has resulted in the discovery of new populations and range expansions of many species. This survey has resulted in the documentation of 19 range expansions at localities far away of known populations, 9 in California and 10 in Baja California. The survey has also produced the first maps interpreted from aerial photography for 8 species in California, entirely from areas not mapped in the 1929-34 VTM Survey on the southern California Channel Islands and the northeastern Mojave Desert. The distributions of two similarly looking species mismapped by the VTM survey (Ponderosa pine, Jeffrey pine) were substantially revised for the San Gabriel, San Bernardino and San Jacinto Mountains of southern California. This survey also produced the first range maps based on aerial imagery of 31 tree species in the Baja California peninsula. Some new ranges will influence future study of several species. For example, the range of Arizona cypress, thought to be a rare species, was found to be extensive in the mountains of northern Baja California. This finding has implications on the taxonomy of the genus. Taken a a whole, this survey brings a new vegetation baseline and insight on several issues including (1) ecological segregation of deciduous and evergreen trees in terms of soils and bedrock. (2) ecological segregation of California oak woodland from Mexican oak woodland species. (3) importance of resistant bedrock slopes and bedrock runoff that maintain local populations of "moist" tree species in dry climate. (4) differences in the spatial and temporal dynamics of tree species in response to fire regimes. (5) long-term persistence of species ranges since initial colonization of California in the 18th century in spite of climate change and grazing. (6) importance of the climate transition on species turnover, from winter rain in California and northern Baja California to summer rain in central and southern Baja California. (7) effect of fire suppression on species changes in California mixed conifer forests, but not in Baja California under free-burning. (8) influence of summer cold fog and fog drip on several trees restricted to the California coast line. (9) destructive impact of introduced pathogens on several tree species. The analysis here should be viewed in the tradition of the geological sciences for which maps of surface bedrock have been revised and refined over two centuries. It is expected that the maps produced in this project will be revised due to error and omissions, as well as long-term vegetation change. Moreover, it is also expected that variations in map analysis by other workers depending on their research goals. The time slice of species ranges in this atlas can be compared with past and future efforts. The high resolution of species maps will provide an empirical database for testing vegetation change against global climate change.
Publications
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Progress 06/23/15 to 09/30/15
Outputs
Target Audience:
Nothing Reported
Changes/Problems:The decision to enlarge the scale of mapping tree species to include the central California and the Baja California peninsula represents the benefits of using Google Earth in vegetation mapping. The methodologies developed in this survey can be applied to vegetation analysis everywhere. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?
Nothing Reported
How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?
Nothing Reported
What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?In the next period, I planned to produce high resolution maps of 75 species in the Californias (California, Baja California, and Baja California Sur.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
This report covers the beginning phases of this project. Protocols are being developed using Google Earth to create high resolution tree species maps. In the process it was discovered that Google Earth imagery and programming allows for efficient survey of each species. As a consequence, the original southern California region planned for analysis was enlarged to include the coast ranges and valleys of central California west of the San Joaquin Valley, as well as the Mojave and Colorado Deserts of southeastern California. With heretofore ready access of aerial imagery of Baja California and Baja California Sur in Mexico, the ranges to these species will be completed into the Baja California peninsula. Some palm and oak species endemic to Baja California will also be mapped. The methodology of aerial photograph interpretation using manual raster scanning was refined upon completion of several species ranges including Juniperus grandis, Pinus ponderosa, and Pinus muricata. High resolution maps for all species will exceed the quality and information of all published maps of the 75 species planned in this effort. Completed maps of these 3 species already reveal discovery of range extensions and error in previous work.
Publications
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