Source: UNIV OF NORTH DAKOTA submitted to
MANAGING A SUSTAINABLE LANDSCAPE TO SUPPORT POLLINATION AND OTHER ECOSYSTEM SERVICES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS: AN INTEGRATED ECONOMIC, SPATIAL
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
EXTENDED
Funding Source
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
1005776
Grant No.
2015-67020-23175
Project No.
ND.W-2014-06849
Proposal No.
2014-06849
Multistate No.
(N/A)
Program Code
A1451
Project Start Date
Feb 15, 2015
Project End Date
Aug 14, 2020
Grant Year
2015
Project Director
Zheng, H.
Recipient Organization
UNIV OF NORTH DAKOTA
(N/A)
GRAND FORKS,ND 58201
Performing Department
Earth System Science and Polic
Non Technical Summary
The overall goal is to assess the impact on honey bee health and mortality, pollination services, and multiple Northern Plain ecosystem services such as carbon storage, biodiversity, and wildlife habitat of economic land-use decisions driven by the crop market, agricultural policy, and conservation programs. We will test the following hypotheses: 1) recent land use changes in the NP have induced changes in landscape suitability for commercial-scale apiary sites and negatively influenced honey bee health and rates of mortality; 2) without additional incentives provided by conservational programs, continued changes in land-use patterns in the NP will result in deterioration of multiple ecosystem services and be unable to sustain honey bee colonies sufficient to meet the needs of the national agricultural industry; 3) alternative management schemes and policy instruments designed to benefit pollination services can generate extra values from other ecosystem services, and total economic values can balance the costs of implementing the conservation policy. We propose to: 1) Apply a geospatial model to identify landscape suitability for commercial-scale apiary sites; 2) Develop a spatially explicit economic model of land use and management practices based on landowner decision-making incorporating market and policy conditions; 3) Conduct a broad-scale field study to determine the influence of habitat quality on colony survival and provision of pollination services; 4) Quantify changes in pollinator habitat and other ecosystem services, carbon storage, biodiversity, and wildlife habitats, under alternative landuse change scenarios driven by market and policies; 5) Integrate the spatial, economic, and ecological factors and evaluate effects of different land-use scenarios on generating private returns to landowners and beekeepers, and social benefits including national commercial pollination and other ecosystem services; and 6) Identify incentives and other policies needed to induce "honey bee-friendly" land-use and management practices. The outcome from this interdisciplinary approach can help to determine better practices in managing agricultural landscapes for pollination function within the matrix of more conventional cropland and develop land-management protocols targeting for both economic efficiency and environmental sustainability
Animal Health Component
0%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
(N/A)
Applied
100%
Developmental
(N/A)
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
1310120106025%
1360330107025%
3140120203025%
6050199301025%
Goals / Objectives
The overall goal of this research is to assess the impact on honey bee health and mortality, pollination services, and other related ecosystem services such as carbon storage, soil retention, and wildlife habitat of economic land use decisions driven by the crop market, agricultural policy and conservation programs.We will test the following hypotheses: 1) the recent land use changes in the Northern Plains has induced changes in landscape suitability for large apiary sites, and in turn impacted the honey bee health and mortality; 2) without additional incentives provided by conservational programs, the current land use patterns in the region driven by market will result in deterioration of multiple ecosystem services and unsustain the honey bee population to support national agricultural production; 3) alternative management schemes and policy instruments designed to benefit pollination services can generate extra values from other ecosystem services and total economic value can balance the cost of implementing the conservation policy.
Project Methods
We will use an integrated spatial, economic, and ecological approach with collaboration across different fields including biology, ecology, economics, and geography. We propose efforts to: 1) develop a geospatial model to identify landscape suitability for large apiary sites;2) develop a spatially explicit economic land-use model incorporating market and policy conditions that reflect landowner optimal decision-making on land use and management practices such as pesticide application;3) conduct a broad-scale field study to determine the influence of habitat quality on colony survival and provision of pollination services;4) use InVEST models to quantify changes in pollinator habitat and other related ecosystem services such as carbon storage, biodiversity, and wildlife habitats under alternative land-use change scenarios driven by market and policies;5) integrate the spatial, economic, and ecological factors and evaluate effects of different land-use scenarios on generating private returns to landowners and beekeepers, and social benefits including national pollination and other ecosystem services;6) identify the extra level of incentives and other policy alternatives needed to induce "honey bee-friendly" land-use and management practices.7) evaluate the full cost and benefit generated by conservation policy targeting pollination services as well as the extra benefits generated by other ecosystem services.

Progress 02/15/18 to 02/14/19

Outputs
Target Audience:Through the project, the researchers and students have interacted with local farmers, commercial/hobby beekeepers, natural resource managers, and other community stakeholders with exchanging information, consulatation, and dissemination of results. Changes/Problems:Due to issues related to students recruitment as well as students dropout through the degree program, there is delay in progressing. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?The project partially supported three M.S. students (Daniel Dixon, Ning Li, Yeqian Xu) and 1 PhD student, Morgen Burke, all majoring in Earth System Science and Policy in the UND. In the past project year, Daniel Dixon has successfully defended thesis and graduated with a M.S. degree in Earth System Science. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?The results of the project has been presented in various acadamic conferences, meetings, and workshops. The main results have also been summarized in manuscrpts for journal publications. Through fieldwork and other informal personal communications, the research results, related information, knowledge have also been shared with beekeepers, farmers, resource managers, and other community stakeholders. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? We will finalize the statistical findings on the relationship between land use and apiary sites locations We will continue the data collection effort on apiary sites location and colony over-winter survival rates. We will finalize the environmental and ecological assessment using InVEST model. We will prepare several manuscripts for journal publication.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? In the 2019 project period, we had made the progresses in the following components: The project continued effort in collaborating with the USGS and USDA FSA through a MOU for sharing the spatial data of Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) to study the impact of changing CRP acreages on honey bee industry in the North and South Dakotas. The research identified areas of pollination habitat loss from 2006 to 2016 by conducting a trend analysis to estimate the conversion rates of CRP enrollments around bee apiaries. In total, 163,000 ha of CRP in 2006 within 1.6 km of apiaries has been converted to row crops by 2012 which resulted a loss of over 53% of lands enrolled in CRP surrounding NGP apiaries. Furthermore, this rate of loss was highest in areas of high apiary density. The study also evaluated how alternative scenarios of future CRP acreage caps may affect habitat suitability for supporting honey bee colonies. Our simulation models revealed that further reduction in CRP to 7.7 M ha nationally would reduce the number of apiaries in the NGP that meet defined forage criteria by 28% on average. Alternatively, increasing the national cap to 15 M ha would increase the number of NGP apiaries that meet defined forage criteria by 155%. The results from the study has been presented in several conferences, workshops, and published on a peer-reviewed journal. In a follow-up study based on the similar approach, we investigated the economic efficiency of changing future CRP acreage caps in promoting habitat suitability to support commercial-size apiary sites in North and South Dakotas. We assessed the economic cost of CRP enrollment under alternative scenarios and associated monetary benefits generated by the increased number of commercial-size apiaries in honey production and provision of pollination services. The project also compares the individual scenarios based on both environmental and economic performances to identify the best policy. The result is being prepared for a manuscript for submission to a peer-reviewed journal. Focusing on the impact of farming practices, we quantified the total amount of major pesticides used around the commercial registered apiary sites using historic land cover and pesticides application data to capture the temporal changes over the past decade. The study assessed the ecological risk that honey bees exposed to various pesticides application by employing the calculation of Risk Quotients developed by the US EPA and inputting the results into the InVEST along with other land cover data. The manuscript which summarizes the findings from the study will be submitted to a peer-reviewed journal for publication. In an empirical study, we associated the location choice of beekeepers on placing commercial apiary sites in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) with various climate and weather factors, including precipitation, temperatures, wind speed, humidity, as well as the index of crop richness/varieties. Our results show that vapor pressure, an indication of evaporation affected by both temperature and precipitation, has a significant impact on the number of the sites registered within a certain geospatial area. Our results also show not only the individual crop category associated with the presence of apiary sites, but the richness and diversity of different bee beneficial land covers have significant positive relationships on the number of sites supported by the surrounding landscape. We are currently finalizing and preparing the manuscript from this research to be submitted to the peer-reviewed journal for publications. Working with USGS EROS, the results from the economic land use model based on individual landowner decision-making has been spatially distributed at pixel level based on each alternative hypothetical policy and market scenario. Currently, the USGS NPWRC is finalizing the InVEST model running for each hypothetical scenario for comparison and gain policy implications. Our research team will carry on the ecological assessment on honey bee habitat quality and provisions of multiple ecosystem services.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Otto, C. R. V.; H. Zheng; A. L. Gallant; R. Iovanna; B. L. Carlson; M.D. Smart; S. Hybeg (2018) Past role and future outlook of the Conservation Reserve program for supporting honey bees in the Great Plains. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115(29): 7629-7634, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1800057115.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Starr, J.; H. Zheng*; J. Zhang* (2019) Evaluating sensitives of economic factors through coupled Economics-ALMANAC model system, Agronomy Journal, Vol. 111 No. 4, p. 1865-1878, doi:10.2134/agronj2018.08.0537
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Burke, M. W. V.; B. C. Rundquist; H. Zheng* (2019) Detection of shelterbelt density change Using Historic APFO and NAIP Aerial Imagery, Remote Sensing, Vol. 11, No. 3, p.208, doi.org/10.3390/rs11030218
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Dixon, D., H. Zheng, C. Otto (2018), Measuring spatial threats to apiaries in the Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota and South Dakota Using InVEST Habitat Quality Model, North Dakota Chapter of the Wildlife Society, Mandan, ND
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Xu, Y. and H. Zheng (2018), "Considering road ditch as a pollination habitat in Great Plains", American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting, December, Washington D.C.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Xu, Y. and H. Zheng (2019) "The economic effectiveness of investing road ditch to enhance pollination habitat in North Dakota", American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting, December, San Francisco, CA


Progress 02/15/17 to 02/14/18

Outputs
Target Audience:The results from this research will be shared with policy makers, farmers, beekeepers, and general public on identifying the effective and efficient management strategies on supporting honey bee habitat and provision other ecosystem services in the Northern Plains. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?The project partially supported three M.S. students (Daniel Dixon, Ning Li, Yeqian Xu) majoring in Earth System Science and Policy in the UND to develop spatial analytical tools to quantify the impacts of land uses and pesticides application on commercial apiary sites. The project also hired 3 high school students (John Lewis, Taylor Winkler, Gretchen Ivers) from the Grand Forks Century high school, 3 undergraduate students (Alanna Ivers from the South Dakota State University, Maddie Derby from the Biology department, and Aiden Matheney from the Computer Science department of UND), and 2 PhD students (Aldjia Boualam and Sofiane Boualam from the Civil Engineer department of UND) working as temporary research assistants to collect historic apiary sites image data from google earth. All the students were provided with basic training and education on ecosystem services and google earth image data collection technics. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?The research results from this project has been submitted for journal publication. The research team has also made several oral and poster presentations in different academic conferences and meetings. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? We will finalize the statistical findings on the relationship between land use and apiary sites locations and prepare the manuscript for journal submission. We will refine the InVEST Habitat Quality model on quantifying the risk of pesticides application on pollinator habitat. We will develop a set of protocol to spatially re-distribute the results from economic land use models at the pixel level to carry on environmental and ecological assessment in the next stage. We will continue the data collection effort on apiary sites location and colony over-winter survival rates.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? In the 2017-18 project period, we had made the progresses in the following components: We added the climate and weather factors such as precipitation, temperatures, wind speed, humidity as well as the index of crop richness/varieties in the statistics models to better explain the location choice of beekeepers on placing commercial apiary sites in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR). The empirical results show that vapor pressure, an indication of evaporation affected by both temperature and precipitation, has a significant impact on the number of the sites registered within a certain geospatial area. Our results also show not only the individual crop category associated with the presence of apiary sites, but the richness and diversity of different bee beneficial land covers have significant positive relationships on the number of sites supported by the surrounding landscape. Meanwhile, all other previous identified independent variables remain significant in the regressions. We are currently finalizing and preparing the manuscript from this research to be submitted to the peer-reviewed journal for publications. We quantified the total amount of major pesticides used around the commercial registered apiary sites using historic land cover and pesticides application data to capture the temporal changes over the past decade. To assess the ecological risk that honey bees exposed to various pesticides application, we employed the calculation of Risk Quotients developed by the US EPA and input the results into the InVEST along with other land cover data. Furthermore, we designed and compared several management strategies to identify the effective policies in mitigating the risk exposed on honey bee habitat. We worked with the collaborators in the USGS and USDA FSA on a project focusing on the change of Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) and its impact on honey bee industry in the North and South Dakotas. We conducted a trend analysis and estimated conversion rates of Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) enrollments around bee apiaries from 2006 to 2016 and developed models to identify areas of habitat loss. Our analysis revealed that NGP apiaries lost over 53% of lands enrolled in CRP, and the rate of loss was highest in areas of high apiary density. We estimated over 163,000 ha of CRP in 2006 within 1.6 km of apiaries was converted to row crops by 2012. We also evaluated how alternative scenarios of future CRP acreage caps may affect habitat suitability for supporting honey bee colonies. Our simulation models revealed that further reduction in CRP to 7.7 M ha nationally would reduce the number of apiaries in the NGP that meet defined forage criteria by 28% on average. Alternatively, increasing the national cap to 15 M ha would increase the number of NGP apiaries that meet defined forage criteria by 155%. Our scenarios also show that strategic placement of CRP near existing apiaries can increase the number of apiaries that meet forage criteria by 182%. Our research will be useful for informing the potential consequences of future US Farm Bill policy. The results have been submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal and currently is under review by and a peer-reviewed journal. We worked with USGS EROS on re-distributing the actual acres based on the results from an economic land use model previously developed. The spatially explicit economic model of land use and management practices based on landowner decision-making has been simulated under various hypothetical scenarios. The detailed land use maps at the pixel level is expected to be produced in early spring of 2018. Our research team will carry on the ecological assessment on honey bee habitat quality and provisions of multiple ecosystem services. The team has collected 3rd year field data on colony over winter survival rates. The team has continued data collection effort on detecting the locations of commercial apiary sites through google earth engine using either human-eyes and neuro network machine learning technics.

Publications

  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2018 Citation: Dixon, D., Zheng, HC., and Otto, C. ,Measuring Spatial Threats to Apiaries in the Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota and South Dakota Using InVESTs Habitat Quality Model North Dakota Chapter of the Wildlife Society in Mandan, ND February 2018
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2018 Citation: Otto, C.R.V., H. Zheng, A. Gallant, R. Iovanna, B. Carlson, M. Smart, S. Hyberg "Pollinators in the Great Plains: the past role, and future outlook, of the Conservation Reserve Program in supporting honey bees", under review
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2017 Citation: Dixon, D., Zheng, HC., and Otto, C., Using the InVEST Habitat Quality Model to understand spatial and temporal threats to registered apiaries in North Dakota, Entomological Society of America Conference in Denver, CO November 2017
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2017 Citation: Otto, C. Zheng, HC, Carlson, B., Iovanna, R., Gallant, A.,Hyberg, S., and Lamke, K., From landscape to flowers: Improving forage for pollinators in the last frontier of the commercial beekeeping industry, Entomological Society of America Conference in Denver, CO November 2017
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2017 Citation: Dixon, D., Zheng, HC., and Otto, C., Merging insecticide application and land use change to model threats to registered apiaries in North Dakota from 2000-2014, Entomological Society of America Conference in Denver, CO November 2017
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2017 Citation: Li, N., Zheng, HC., and Gallant, A., Modeling land use change and climate effects on the sustainability of Managed bee pollination services in the Prairie Pothole Region, Entomological Society of America Conference in Denver, CO November 2017
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2017 Citation: Dixon, D., Zheng, HC., and Otto, C., Merging Land Use Change Trends and Insecticide Application to Understand Multiple Threats to Honey Bees in North Dakota, American Geophysical Union Conference, New Orleans, LA December 2017


Progress 02/15/16 to 02/14/17

Outputs
Target Audience:The project aimed to provide insights on conservation and agricultural policymakings to policy-makers, farmers, commercial beekeepers, and general society to better support the honey bee habitats in ND. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?The project partially supported three M.S. students (Daniel Dixon, Ning Li, Yeqian Xu, Morgen Burke) majoring in Earth System Science and Policy Civil to develop spatial analytical tools to quantify the impacts of land uses and pesticides application on commercial apiary sites. The project also employed 6 high school students for collecting/detecting actual used apiary sites image data from google earth with basic training and education on ecosystem services and google earth image data collection technics. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? Nothing Reported What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? We will add climate factors such as temperature and precipitation in the regression analysis to refine the statistical model in identifying the determinants of landscape suitability and carrying capacity for supporting apiary sites. We will design several scenarios to be implemented in the habitat quality model to compare the effectiveness of improving habitat quality and reducing risks with changes in farming practices. We will develop a set of protocol to spatially re-distribute the results from economic land use models at the pixel level to carry on environmental and ecological assessment in the next stage. We will summarize some of the research outputs for conference presentations and peer-reviewed journal submissions.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? During the reporting period, the project has made major progresses in the following components: An empirical analysis has been employed to identify the relationship between landcover/crop types and the presence of registered/observed commercial size apiary sites. The study aims to answer the questions such as "what are the factors affecting the suitability of a location for placing managed honey bee hives" and "Given the surrounding land cover composition, how many apiary sites can be supported?" by focusing on Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) in South and North Dakotas. The empirical results show a significant positive impact of small bee beneficial crops (alfalfa, sunflowers, and canola) and significant negative impacts of biofuel crops (corn and soybeans) and small grains (wheat, barley, and oats) on the presences of commercial apiary sites. A graduate student thesis project is studying the environmental risk of pesticides application on honey bee habitat in the PPR region. The research quantifies the total amount of major pesticides used around the commercial registered apiary sites incorporating various pesticides application and land use data. Using an integrated modeling approach, the study also aims to quantify the changes in habitat quality with respect to changes in pesticides application and land use. The model has been set up for future scenario analysis. Collaborating with USDA FSA, the project conducted a trend analysis and estimated conversion rates of Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) enrollments around bee apiaries from 2006 to 2016. The study has also explored simulation approach to identify the impacts of future policies direction of farm bills on pollinator habitat. A spatially explicit economic model of land use and management practices based on landowner decision-making has been developed and simulated land uses in various hypothetical scenarios to identify the effective and efficient policies in supporting honey bee habitat in the PPR. The project is currently making efforts on integrating the results of economic land use model with geospatial components so that the economic results can be redistributed into a finer spatial scale for further ecological assessments on habitat quality and other ecosystem services. The team has collected 2nd year field data on colony over winter survival rates. The team has continued data collection effort on detecting the locations of commercial apiary sites through google earth engine using either human-eyes and neuro network machine learning technics.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2018 Citation: "Pollinators in the Great Plains: the past role, and future outlook, of the Conservation Reserve Program in supporting honey bees", Otto,C.R.V., H. Zheng, A. Gallant, R. Iovanna, B. Carlson, M. Smart, S. Hyberg, 2018


Progress 02/15/15 to 02/14/16

Outputs
Target Audience: Nothing Reported Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?The project partially supported three M.S. students (Daniel Dixon, Ning Li, Yeqian Xu) majoring in Earth System Science and Policy Civil to develop spatial analytical tools to quantify the impacts of land uses and pesticides application on commercial apiary sites. The project also employed 6 high school students for collecting/detecting actual used apiary sites image data from google earth with basic training and education on ecosystem services and google earth image data collection technics. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Dixon, D., H. Zheng, and C. Otto (2017). "Merging insecticide useand land use change to model threats to honey beesin North Dakota" Poster Presentation, in University of North Dakota Graduate Research Symposium, March 2017, Grand Forks, North Dakota What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?1) Finalize the statistical analysis on land use and presence of apiary sites. 2) Develop the spatial explicit modeling approach to quantify the threats from pesticides application on apiary sites. 3) Finalize the modeling integrations to evaluate the impacts of land use and managements on apiary sites under various hypothetical scenarios

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Over the past year, the team has conducted the following activities: 1) using geospatial and statistical tools to identify the relationship between landscape suitability and presence of registered or actual utilized apiary sites; 2) using multiple spatial and pesticides application data sets to quantify the two major threats to honey bees: loss quality forage and exposure to harmful insecticides; 3) Developing a spatially explicit economic model of land use and management practices based on landowner decision-making incorporating market and policy conditions; 4) Integrating the results from the statistical model and land use model to evaluate the landscape suitability and carrying capacity for supporting commercial-scale apiary site under various policy scenarios; 5) continuing with the annual effort in collecting field data to analyze and determine the influence of habitat quality on colony survival and provision of pollination service; 6) Imagery data collection efforts have been made using google earth engine by either human-eye detection and machine deep learning technology.

Publications