Source: MICHIGAN STATE UNIV submitted to
DEVELOPING AND PROMOTING WATER-, NUTRIENT-, AND CLIMATE-SMART TECHNOLOGIES TO HELP AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS ADAPT TO CLIMATE AND SOCIETAL CHANGE
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
EXTENDED
Funding Source
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
1005773
Grant No.
2015-68007-23133
Project No.
MICL08507
Proposal No.
2014-09400
Multistate No.
(N/A)
Program Code
A8101
Project Start Date
Mar 1, 2015
Project End Date
Feb 29, 2020
Grant Year
2019
Project Director
Basso, B.
Recipient Organization
MICHIGAN STATE UNIV
(N/A)
EAST LANSING,MI 48824
Performing Department
Geological Sciences
Non Technical Summary
Recent extreme weather events provide insight into future challenges for agricultural systems across parts of the US due to increasing climate variability. Growing irrigation demand, significant declines in groundwater levels across the High Plains, and inefficient use of fertilizers leading to nitrate leaching, N2O emission, and pollution of surface water are threats to the U.S. corn-soybean-wheat systems and the industries and ecosystems that depend on them. We propose to: i) develop and improve management strategies for a water-, nutrient-, and climate-smart agriculture; ii) create and disseminate decision-support tools to help farmers use "Big Data" (e.g., yield maps and UAV sensors) to adapt to climate variability and increase their resiliency; iii) evaluate the economics of smart agriculture technologies and practices. Our research will integrate and experimentally test a novel suite of biophysical and socioeconomic systems models to quantify interactions between climate, hydrology, and socioeconomic drivers of agricultural practices across the Upper Midwest and High Plains regions. Research, education, and extension activities in this project will provide accurate information for practical use by the general public, students, farmers, and decision makers to enable sustainable adaptation to and mitigation of temperature extremes, drought, and flooding.
Animal Health Component
0%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
5%
Applied
75%
Developmental
20%
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
1020110205030%
1320210107025%
1110420302025%
9031510207020%
Goals / Objectives
1. Synthesize available research and data on crop yields for major US row-cropproduction systems and conduct multi-model ensemble analyses to improve estimatesof climate variability effects and quantify the impacts of a suite of managementpractices on major US row-crop production systems.2. Establish and expand plot- to field-scale experiments across scales to evaluatemanagement strategies that increase efficiency of crop water, energy, and nitrogen,thus providing a basis to stabilize production across the Midwest and High Plains.3. Link crop, hydrology, and economic models with Precision Agriculture technologiesto select site-specific best management strategies and policies to increase productivityas well as reduce risk and minimize environmental impacts across scales.4. Develop and deploy a web-based decision support system (DSS) with GIScapabilities to help farmers, extension agents and stakeholders evaluate water-,nutrient-, and climate-smart adaptive management strategies to increase the efficiencyof water and nutrient use, and enhance soil and water quality.5. Provide integrated education methods to help students, and the next generation ofscientists and farmers, understand the impacts of climate variability and change onagriculture and the environment.
Project Methods
Our project will evaluate management options for farmers to increase the resiliency of row crop agriculture to a variable and changing climate by improving soil C sequestration as well as water and fertilizer management. We will identify sustainable agricultural management strategies to locally optimize productivity by improving use of N and water while reducing C emissions. By using crop system models that accurately represent the impacts of climate variability and management practices, the benefits of optional practices under different climate scenarios can be quantified for different cropping systems across the US. This approach is possible because such models now demonstrate significant predictive skill while simulating crop production systems under different pedoclimatic and management conditions (Asseng et. al., 2013; Bassu et al., 2014).Our approach combines experiments conducted over a range of management practices, soils, and climates with widely-used crop system models (DSSAT, EPIC, SALUS, APSIM-N, DAYCENT, CropSyst, Hybrid Maize) which will be enhanced to ensure accurate evaluations of a range of adaptation and mitigation practices. Data from existing and new field studies, combined with crop simulations, will be used to evaluate sustainable management options including: precision application of fertilizers; slow-release fertilizers; cultivars that are bred for tolerance to drought, heat, pests, and excess water stresses; as well as expanded and precision irrigation, conservation tillage, rotations, cover crops, and tile drains to increase water and nutrient efficiency. Rigorous testing of models against data on soil C, residue decomposition, N mineralization, crop N uptake, nitrate leaching and soil water balance components will be conducted at daily to decadal timescales across multiple sites.Widespread adoption of climate-, water-, and nutrient-smart technologies clearly requires education, extension, and outreach. The benefits and utility of DSS tools must be demonstrated to farmers and decision makers, and a new cadre of policy makers and precision agricultural scientists must be trained. This will be integrated throughout the proposed project through dedicated courses for students and workshops for farmers, teachers, and climate extension educators. These courses will be organized to increase awareness, build non-specialists' capacity to use models, and illustrate alternatives to adapt to and mitigate impacts of climate variability and change on crop production.Potential Improvement in Sustainability of US Agriculture & Novel ContributionsWe propose to use a novel suite of monitoring technologies and process-based models to analyze and predict crop responses to fluctuating water and nutrient availability in space and time. Combining innovative remote sensing data from Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) with traditional point measurements will enhance the understanding of plant-soil-water interactions from plot to field scales (Figure 2). Spatial variability of corn-soybean-wheat yields will be quantified using high-resolution (~ 25 cm) remote sensing estimates of crop growth, biomass properties, vegetation indices (e.g., LAI), N uptake, and temperature, using a UAV with a laser scanner, along with hyperspectral and thermal cameras. Measurements and models will be integrated to capture the influences of landscape heterogeneity on water and nutrient fluxes from cropping systems across scales.Crop System ModelsCrop system models for ensemble simulations in this project include DSSAT, APSIM, EPIC, SALUS, DAYCENT, CropSyst, and Hybrid-Maize.SALUS-Web eXtension Decision Support SystemBasso's lab is developing this DSS based on Simple and WebGIS interfaces (Figure 4; Basso et al., 2012c). The simple SALUS interface performs online simulations of climate-soil-management interactions with a user-friendly interface and no software installation. The user responds to 17 questions in common English, to set up input crop management information to run the simulation. The output table reports crop yields, water use, nitrate leaching into the groundwater, N2O and CO2 emissions from soil, and soil organic carbon change over time for a range of potential management practices. SALUS-WebGIS is a powerful tool to help decision makers understand the implications of various management practices, and help environmental and agricultural managers better manage the use of natural resources and agricultural land.Socioeconomic Decision ModelsFarmers' decisions to adopt new technologies, select crops, and choose management practices can be viewed as adaptation responses to external biophysical and socioeconomic drivers. To model these responses explicitly, we will develop decision models that can account for the spatial and temporal variability of: a) the adoption and diffusion of irrigation and other technologies such as cultivars; and b) annual decisions about crop selection, fertilizer, soil amendments, irrigation, and conservation practices. These spatially and temporally variable models will each include rational decision models based on physical constraints (climate and hydrology), market conditions, and policies as well as behavioral decision models that incorporate uncertainties, limited information and traditional practices (e.g., Foster et al. 2014). The decision models will be calibrated at the field, farm, and county scales, and then run autonomously with optimal choices for each decision unit, or according to local to regional trends.Hydrologic Modeling with SALUS-LHMThe Landscape Hydrology Model (LHM - e.g., Hyndman et al. 2007, Kendall and Hyndman 2014a, b; Hyndman, 2014; Kendall 2009; Wiley et al. 2010) is a spatially-explicit, process-based integrated surface- and groundwater hydrology model that simulates the full water and energy budgets across large regions (>100,000 km2) at high resolution. As part of ongoing NSF- and EPA-sponsored research, LHM has been coupled with SALUS to produce simultaneous crop yield and water balance simulations across regional scales such as the HPA and southeastern Michigan.Novel Field-Scale MeasurementsRelatively new methods using UAVs can be revolutionary for remote sensing in agriculture. Modern UAVs are sophisticated devices that fly without a pilot and can be equipped with optical sensors for diurnal measurements, thermal sensors for nocturnal measurements, chemical-based sensors, laser scanners, spectroradiometers, and radar. Recent efforts to use UAVs for agricultural imaging have included use of model airplanes and helicopters with autopilot to take high-resolution images of large fields. PD Basso has been using an FAA approved Microdrone md4-1000 UAV with a Certificate of Authorization (COA) (Figure 5). We will use this UAV platform with sensors to monitor crops, N uptake, and water stress at plot and field scales.Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) is an emerging technology to image spatial and temporal variations in soil moisture distribution (Michot et al., 2003; Ferreira et al., 2007). Our research in this area by PD Basso and Co-PD Hyndman demonstrated that water content can be accurately derived using differential inversion of resistivity data after temperature correction because there is no change in soil texture between surveys (e.g., Jayawickreme et al., 2008, 2010; Amato et al., 2008; Basso et al., 2010a,b; Casa et al., 2013). Such geophysical and remotely-sensed data will provide a strong foundation for improved simulations of crop growth, hydrology, and nutrient transport described below.

Progress 03/01/18 to 02/28/19

Outputs
Target Audience:The project targets at advancing and disseminating science to agricultural and environmental scientists, students K16, extension specialists, farmers, policy makers and citizens of the US. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Training is ongoing in workshops, conferences, and at the collegiate level. Project results have also been incorporated into materials used in a workshop forprofessional development ofsecondary school science teachers as well as an undergraduate course for future teachers. Both undergraduatesand graduate students are working directly on the project for their thesis or dissertation. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? Several peer-reviewed publications, Oral presentation and poster presentations at annualmeetings of scientific societies (Agronomy, Engineering, Geophysical, Geography, Economic, Education) -list is too long. ? What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Objective 1. Synthesis crop yield data & crop model ensembles Precision Ag-Crop Modeling (MSU) will continue to run ensemble models with the goals of quantifying the uncertainties from models in simulating the interactions between soil-plant-environment and management to build sustainable and resilient cropping systems. More specifically we will be conducting this work in support of a new initiative that Basso (PI) leads calledAgMIPNorth America. The initiative is to bring together crop, climate and economic modelers to address specific questions of interest to the US agricultural systems. Objective 2. Field Experimentation (USDA-ARS) Further research will investigate variable rate prescription mapping across field sites and examine leaching differences between conventional and tactical management schemes. The focus of year 5 will be on the integration ofdata from the previous experiments. Specifically,detailing in howthe changes in surface propertiescome as a result of management changes; the prediction of phenological stages in corn with remote sensing methods; the impact of management changes on the surface energy balance and the implications for soil biological activity; the spatial dynamics of the soil as a result of management changes; and the sensitivity of degraded soils in fields to weather and climate variation and the impact of productivity. Objective 3. Integrated Systems Modeling: (Hydrogeology MSU,HydrologyKGU, Economics MSU, Economics UNL, Climate MSU) Hydrogeology (MSU)will continueto enhancetheirmethod development and data collection related to the explicit mapping of tile drained fields, continue field data collection, and assemble state level groundwater level data sets across the corn belt.They will apply a fully-coupled LHM to simulate the hydrologic systems within Michigan, validated with the project-collected water level, soil moisture, and streamflow datato better understand the role of dormant season changes in snowbelt behavior on the water budget in Michigan. TheHydroclimatologygroup (Dartmouth) will work to complete their analysis of climate impacts on the Central U.S. agricultural production through use of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF)which explores the relationship between climate, irrigation, and crop productivity. The economics teams (MSU) will conduct a rich set of counterfactual analysis of policies and market shocks. Theeconomics teams (UNL) Objective 4.Extension and Decision Support System: Precision Ag-Crop Modeling (MSU),Climatology Team (MSU) TheClimate Team (MSU)collected data necessary for the calibration of an ensemble of models and validation of simulations of detailed nitrogen movement during the non-growing season. The Precision Ag-Crop Modeling team (MSU)will continue tocorrelateremotely sensed imagery and yield data from a repository of collected data from Midwestern farmers. TheGeohydrology team (KGS) willpursue a promising extensionof the work related to the impact of limited pumping,sustainability assessments,and drought resiliency. Objective 5. Provide Integrated Education Methods: Education (MSU) In the coming year, theMSU Education team will provide teacher professional development (PD)workshops in the summer based on informed decision-making onhuman impacts on the environment.Anenvironmental documentary grant from theKnight Centerfor Environmental Journalism and Michigan State University was awardedfor the production ofvideos that document future teachers' progression as agents of change in the K-8 classroom. These videos highlight teachers' development of the use of systems thinking to evaluate environmental impacts of food production and fuel usage.?

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Objective 1. Synthesize crop yield data & crop model ensembles Weanalyzeda dataset of about 971 fields with yield maps collected at farmers' field across different states in the US Midwest. Fields with less than three years of yield, or whenless than 75% of the field areawas harvested,were removed from the analysis. The resulting dataset is comprised of 338 fields and 1625 yield maps. The crops planted on these fields were maize, soybean, cotton and wheat. Fields in Arkansas, Colorado and Kansas are irrigated, and fields inMichigan, Illinois, Iowa, Indiana are rainfed. For each of the fields, we calculated spatial distribution of the stability zones. We quantified the number of pixels from the edge of the field and observed that most of the LS zones are located close to the edge of the field. This observation was confirmed also in the analysis of the 70 M acres using remote sensing. We found the LS to be highest in the area of 0-30 m from the edge of the field. Objective 2. Field Experimentation Field experiments are continuing in Iowa and Michigan.In Iowa, efforts for the previous year focused on the impact of changing management systems on energy fluxes and the resultant impacts on the spatial variation in soil properties. This is accomplished through field-scale measurements of the energy balance coupled with an intense spatial sampling of soil properties. The management comparisons made in this study are a conventional system of corn-soybean with tillage compared with the cover crop and no-tillage system for corn and soybean production. These studies reveal: Tillage increases the rate of carbon loss from the soil because after one year there was a positive change in the carbon balance under the cover crop no-tillage system. A reduction in tillage coupled with the cover crop decreased the soil water evaporation rate from the soil There was a significant change in the spatial pattern of soil microbial biomass induced by the reduction in tillage. Changes in the spatial patterns in the soil can be quickly achieved by changes in tillage and lead to enhanced water use efficiency and crop productivity In Michigan, the Basso Lab continued to collect field data on yield, nutrient and water dynamics in several fields. Of interest is the study performed in two fields in Michigan where 30 time-lapse cameras were placed in three replicates and four stability zone per field to monitor the exact time of plant emergence, and their effects on the final kernel number and kernel weight. The results showed that delayed in emergence lowers yield by reducing the kernel number with minor effect on kernel weight reduction. Additional field experiments are conducted in fields grown with wheat, corn, potatoes, and soybeans. Objective 3.Integrated Systems Modeling ThePrecision Ag-Crop Modeling team at MSU(the Basso lab) focuses on the integration of remote sensing from different platforms (UAV, airborne and satellites) with crop modeling (SALUS model) to better understand when to add fertilizer and to know when and wheat the pots The frequent images obtained from a commercial airborne image company (10images per season) are very important to analyze patterns of spatial and temporalusing the thermal stability map developed using the canopy temperature data measured. TheDartmouthAppliedHydroclimatologyGroupfinished research exploring trends and drivers of agricultural climate in the Central US. This includes an assessment of potential causes of increased precipitation and decreased temperatures over the 20thcentury in the Midwest using a regional climate model (Alter et al., 2018) and an evaluation of the small or decreasing temperature trends 1900-Present (the "warming hole") from Global Historical Climatology Network Daily (GHCN-Daily) across the Central US (Partridge et al., 2018). Working closely with our CAP team members, we have extended our work on Central US climate to explore the implications of the warming hole on agricultural productivity. The MSU Hydrogeology team continued their work on monitoring soil moisture, soil resistivity, soil temperature, and canopy vegetation at a land cover site in Southwest Michigan. These data significantly improved aspects of the Landscape Hydrology Model (LHM), including refinements of sediment yield calculations to partition eroded sediment in soil textural classes. Further work was included to improve root system dynamics within and across ecosystem types. The MSU Economics team found that farmers are dynamic in making decisions. A large proportion of the effects of exogenous weather and market factors on the probability of adopting low energy precise application (LEPA) irrigation and it manifests through their influence on expected future profits vis-à-vis current profits. A major factor contributing to the delay inadoption of LEPA is the option value associated with learning more about the profitability of the technology. Farmers' adoption decisions are affected by the decision of their neighbors: more adopters among one's neighbors will improve his adoption probability. The KGS hydrogeology teamdemonstrated the power and great potential of the water-balance approach using data from the first five years of the ongoing highly controlled experiment with pumping reductions in northwestern Kansas. They were able to predict the water-level response to the target pumping reductions using only water-level and pumping data from the pre-reduction period. Objective 4. Extension and Decision Support System The Precision Ag-Crop Modeling team at MSUorganized a meeting where farmers werepresentedwithmultiple years ofremotely sensed imagery coupled with yield dataand how zones in their field can be described through varying levels of productivity.Theseyieldstability mapsare imperative tomaking educated management decisions on fertilizer, seeds, and irrigation.Furthermore,the team organized a precision agriculture meeting regarding UAV, yield monitor, and precision agriculture trainingformembers of the agriculture industry, state government, and academia. The MSU climate team led by Dr. Jeff Andresen used a combination of historical and projected climate data analysis, statistical downscaling, process-based crop simulations, and field-level data collections to further examine the relationship between climate change/variability and nitrogen loss in agricultural systems. The summary of these results revealed that the climate of the region is significantly wetter than the recent past and precipitation events are indeed becoming more intense. ThePrecision Ag-Crop Modeling team at MSUcontinues to make progress in developing the I-SALUS web-based model for farmers. The model is a dynamic and requires input on soil, weather, management and climate. The model inputs are readily available across continental US. Objective 5. Provide Integrated Education Methods The MSU Education team has and continues to produce media communications for the generalpublic.Education materialsaredisseminated through thewebsitesof the MSU College of Natural Science,MSU News 360, and MSU's Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences.These activities address the broad problem of public awareness of the need for, and human impacts of, increased agricultural output in order to feed the growing population in a time of increasingly extreme weather. Previous workshops focused on 1) water issues, 2) food science, and 3) consumer goods related to agriculture. Current workshops willfocus on fuels in agriculture and the impacts of fuel usage on the environment.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2019 Citation: Basso et al., 2019. Yield stability analysis reveals sources of large-scale nitrogen loss from the US Midwest. Scientific Report in press
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2019 Citation: Basso, B.; Liu, L. (2019) Seasonal crop yield forecast: Methods, applications, and accuracies. Advances in Agronomy,154, 201-240. doi: 10.1016/bs.agrom.2018.11.002
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2019 Citation: Insua, J.R.; Utsumi, S.A.; Basso, B. (2019) Estimation of spatial and temporal variability of pasture growth and digestibility in grazing rotations coupling unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) with crop simulation models. PloS one, 14(3) e0212773. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0212773
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2019 Citation: Insua, J.R.; Utsumi, S.A.; Basso, B. (2019) Assessing and modeling pasture growth under different nitrogen fertilizer and defoliation rates in Argentina and the United States. Agronomy Journal, 3(2). doi:10.2134/agronj2018.07.0438
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2019 Citation: Insua, J.R.; Agnusdei, M.G.; Berone, GD.; Basso, B.; Machado, C.F. (2019) Modeling the nutritive value of defoliated tall fescue pastures based on leaf morphogenesis. Agronomy Journal, 3(1). doi:10.2134/agronj2018.07.0439
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2019 Citation: Shuai, G.; Zhang, J.; Basso, B.; Pan, Y.; Zhu, X.; Zhu, S.; Liu, H. (2019) Multi-temporal RADARSAT-2 polarimetric SAR for maize mapping supported by segmentations from high-resolution optical image. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 74, 1-15. doi: 10.1016/j.jag.2018.08.021
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2019 Citation: Xu, T.; Deines, J.M.; Kendall, A.A.; Basso, B.; Hyndman, D.W. (2019) Addressing Challenges for Mapping Irrigated Fields in Subhumid Temperate Regions by Integrating Remote Sensing and Hydroclimatic Data. Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute, 11(3), 370. doi: 10.3390/rs11030370
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2018 Citation: Asseng, S.; Martre, P.; Maiorano, A.; R�tter, R.; OLeary, G.; Fitzgerald, G.; Girousse, C.; Motzo, R.; Giunta, F.; Babar, M.; Reynolds, M.; Kheir, A.; Thornburn, P.; Waha, K.; Ruane, A.; Aggarwal, P.; Ahmed, M.; Balkovi?, J.; Basso, B.; Biernath, P.; Bindi, M,; Cammarano, D.; Challinor, A.; De Sanctis, G.; Dumont, B.; Rezael, E.; Fereres, E,; Ferrise, R.; Garcia-Villa, M.; Gayler, S.; Gao, Y.; Horan, H.; Hoogenboom, G.; Izaurralde, R.; Jabloun, M.; Jones, C.; Kassie, B.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Klein, C.; Koehler, A.K.; Bing, L,; Minoli, S.; San Martin, M.; M�ller, C.; Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; Olesen, J.; Palosuo, T.; Porter, J.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Semenov, M.; St�ckle, P.S.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F,; Can der Velde, M.; Wallach, D. ;Wang, E.; Weber, H.; Wolf, J.; Xiao, L.; Zhang, Z.; Zhao, Z.; Zhu, Y.; Ewert, F. (2018). Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein. Global Change Biology, 25(1), 155-173. doi: 10.1111/gcb.14481
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2018 Citation: Basso, B.; Dumont, B.; Maestrini, B.; Shcherbak, I.; Robertson, G. P.; Porter, J.R.; Smith, P.; Paustian, K.; Grace, P.R.; Bassu, S.; Asseng, S.; Biernath, C.; Boote, K.J.; Cammarano, D.; De Sanctis, G.; Durand, J.L.; Ewert, F.; Gayler, S.; Hyndman, D.W.; Kent, J.; Martre, P.; Nendel, C.; Priesaack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Ruane, A.C.; Sharp, J.; Thorburn, P.J.; Hatfield, J.L.; Jones, J.W.; Rosenzweig, C. (2018). Soil Organic Carbon and Nitrogen Feedbacks on Crop Yields under Climate Change. Agricultural & Environmental Letters, 3(1). American Society of Agronomy. doi: 10.2134/ael2018.05.0026
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2018 Citation: Basso, B.; & Ritchie, J.T. (2018). Evapotranspiration in High-Yielding Maize and under Increased Vapor Pressure Deficit in the US Midwest. Agricultural & Environmental Letters, 3(1). doi: 10.2134/ael2017.11.0039
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2018 Citation: De Rosa, D.; Rowlings, D.W.; Biala, J.; Scheer, C.; Basso, B.; Grace, P.R. (2018). N2O and CO2 emissions following repeated application of organic and mineral N fertiliser from a vegetable crop rotation. Science of The Total Environment, 637, 813-824. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.046
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2018 Citation: Hamilton, S.K.; Hussain, M.Z.; Lowrie, C.; Basso, B.; Robertson, G.P. (2018). Evapotranspiration is resilient in the face of land cover and climate change in a humid temperate catchment. Hydrological Processes, 32(5), 655-663. doi: 10.1002/hyp.1144
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2018 Citation: Liu, B.; Martre, P.; Ewert, F.; Porter, John.; Challinor, A.; M�ller, C.; Ruane, A.; Waha, K.; Thorburn, P.; Aggarwal, P.; Ahmed, M.; Balkovi?, , J.; Basso, B.; Biernath, C.; Bindi, M.; Bammarano, D.; De Sanctis, G.; Dumont, B.; Espadafor, M.; Rezaei; E.E.; Ferrise, R.; Garcia-Vila, M.; Gayler, S.; Gao, Y.; Goran, H.; Hoogenboom, G.; Izaurralde, R.C.; Jones, C.; Dassie, B.; Kersebaum, K.; Klein, C.; Kersebaum, K.; Klein, C.; Koehler, A.K.; Maiorano, A.; Minoli, S.; San Martin, M.M.; Kumar, S. N.; Nendel, C; OLeary, G.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; R�tter, R. ;Semenov, M.; St�ckle, C.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Van der Velde, M.; Wallach, D.; Wang, E.; Webber, H.; Wolf, J. Xiao, L.; Xiao, L.; Zhang, Z.; Zhao, Z.; Zhu, Y.; Asseng, S. (2018). Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0�C above pre-industrial warming. Global Change Biology, 1-17. doi: 10.1111/gcb.14542
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2018 Citation: Maestrini, B.; Basso, B. (2018). Drivers of within-field spatial and temporal variability of crop yield across the US Midwest. Scientific Reports, 8(1), 2045-2322. doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-32779-3
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2018 Citation: Maestrini, B.; Basso, B. (2018). Predicting spatial patterns of within-field crop yield variability. Field Crops Research, 219, 106-112. doi: 10.1016/j.fcr.2018.01.028
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2018 Citation: Wallach, D.; Martre, P.; Liu, B.; Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Thorburn, P.; Can Ittersum, M.; Aggarwal, P.; Ahmed, M.; Basso, B.; Biernath, C.; Cammarano, D.; Challinor, A.; De Sanctis, G.; Dumont, B.; Rezaei, E.E.; Fereres, E.; Fitzgerald, G.;Gao, G.; Garcia-Vila, M.; Gayler, S.; Girousse, C.; Hoogenboom, G.; Horan, H.; Izaurralde, R.; Jones, C.; Kassie, B.; Dersebaum, K.C.; Klein, C.; Koehler, A.K.; Maiorano, A.; Minoli, S.; M�ller, C.; Kumar, S.N.; Nendel, C.; OLeary, G.; Palosua, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D. R�tter, R.; Semenov, M.; St�ckle, C. Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Wolf, J.; Zhang, Z.; (2018). Multimodel ensembles improve predictions of cropenvironmentmanagement interactions. Global Change Biology, 24(11), 5072-5083. doi: doi: 10.1111/gcb.14411
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2018 Citation: Martre, P.; Kimball, B.; Ottman, M.; Wall, G.; White, J.; Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Cammarano, D.; Maiorano, A.; Aggarwal, P.; Anothai, J.; Basso, B.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, A.; De Sanctis, G.; Doltra, J.; Dumont, B.; Fereres, E.; Garcia-Vila, M.; Gayler, S.; Hoogenboom, G.; Hunt, L.; Izaurralde, R.; Jabloun, M..; Jones, C.; Kassie, B.; Kersebaum, K.; Koehler, A.K.; M�ller, C.; Kumar, S.N.; Liu, B.; Lobell, D.B.; Nendel, C.; OLeary, G.; Olesen, J.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Rezaei, E.E.; Ripoche, D.; R�tter, R.; Semenov, M.; St�ckle, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Thorburn, P.; Waha, K.; Wang, E.; Wolf, J.; Zhao, Z.; Zhu, Y.; (2018). The Hot Serial Cereal Experiment for modeling wheat response to temperature: field experiments and AgMIP-Wheat multi-model simulations. Open Data Journal for Agricultural Research, 4, 28-34. doi: 10.18174/odjar.v4i0.15830
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2018 Citation: Zhang, J.; Basso, B.; Price, R.F.; Putman, G.; Shuai, G. (2018). Estimating plant distance in maize using Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV). PLOS ONE, 13(4), 1-22. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0195223


Progress 03/01/17 to 02/28/18

Outputs
Target Audience:The target audience for the results of this research is broad and includes agricultural scientists, extension specialists, agricultural producers, policy makers in agriculture and natural resource management. Graduate and undergraduate students are reached through direct work in the research phase of the project. Students in grades K-12 will be reached through training their teachers receive at MSU in undergraduate coursework or professional development workshops that use materials that include project results. The target audience was reached in the following ways in Year 3: Agricultural and natural resource scientists were reached through presentations at numerous professional meetings as demonstrated by the list of presentations shown in the Products section of REEport. These organizations include: American Society of Agronomy (ASA), Geological Society of America (GSA), American Geophysical Union (AGU), Michigan Science Teachers' Association, US-China Joint Symposium on the Nexus of Food, Energy, and Water Systems, Finney County Water Conservation Area meeting, Kansas House Water and Environment Committee, Technical University of Dresden, 2017 conference, Geological Society of America, AGU-SEG Hydrogeophysics Workshop, Water Conservation Areas of Kansas, 2017 Conference, Technical University of Dresden, National Groundwater Association Brownbag, Wichita Chapters of the American Meteorological Society and National Weather Association. Extension Agents were reached through presentations at professional national agronomy meetings such as theAmerican Society of Agronomy. Agricultural producers were reached through presentations made at annual meetings of the Michigan Corn Marketing Program, the Michigan Wheat Growers and the Michigan Soybean Promotion Committee. Policy makers were reached through presentations at numerous conferences and meetings including: Kansas House Water and Environment Committee, Groundwater Management District #3 Board Meeting. Graduate and undergraduate level students are participating directly in the project throughtheir thesis or dissertation research. These students are listed by name under the Training section in REEport. Students in secondary science classes will be reached through lessons developed by teachers and education professionals who attended a 3-day professional development workshop at MSU (summer, 2017). In addition, a presentation about the project was made to the Michigan Science Teachers' Association. Elementary science students will be reached by concepts of this project included in the curricula ofundergraduate course designed for education majors at MSU (180 future teachers). Approximately 200 elementary students are expected to be reached by the eightteachers who participated in a 3-day professional development workshop at MSU for elementary teachers (summer, 2017). Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Training- Personnel trained in Year 3 of the PreCiSA project Training is ongoing in workshops, conferences and at the collegiate level. Project results have also been incorporated into materials that have been used in a workshop for professional development of secondary school science teachers and an undergraduate course for future teachers. Both undergraduates and graduate students are working directly on aspects of the project as subjects of their thesis or dissertation. Individuals directly being trained within the scope of this project are listed below: MSU Agronomy group: Bernardo Maestrini (Postdoc) Lin Liu (PhD candidate) Guanyuan Shuai (PhD candidate) Michael Metiva (PhD candidate) Olivia Nelson Davidson (MS candidate) Ben Tirrell (MS candidate) Greg Putnam (Undergraduate assistant) Guillermo Jimenez (Undergraduate assistant) USDA-ARS Agronomy group: Christian Dold (Postdoc) Kenneth Wacha (Postdoc) Laura Hansen (Research technician) MSU Hydrology group: Anthony Kendall (Postdoc) Tianfang Xu (PhD candidate) Jill Deines (PhD candidate) Erin Haacker (PhD candidate) Alex Kuhl (PhD candidate) Chanse Ford (PhD candidate) Austin Parish (MS candidate) Xiao Liu (MS candidate) Quercus Hamlin (Undergraduate assistant) Jeremy Rapp (Undergraduate assistant) Savannah Hipaakka (Undergraduate assistant) MSU Economics group: Haoyang Li (PhD candidate) UNL Economics group: James Keeler (MS candidate) Paloch Suchato (MS candidate) Dartmouth Climate group: Andrew Crutchfield (Undergraduate assistant) Jessica Jones (Undergraduate assistant) How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?In addition peer-reviewed academic journal articles listed in the Products section of this report, four online magazine articles and more than 30 oral and poster presentations were made at professional conventions, workshops and conferences in the third year of the PreCiSA project. Oral presentations: Butler, J.J., Jr., and B.B. Wilson, KGS sustainability assessment approach for WCA and LEMA planning, Finney County Public Conversation: WCA, Garden City, KS, Jan. 6, 2017. Butler, J.J., Jr., and B.B. Wilson, Aquifer sustainability assessment for an area northwest of Garden City, Invited presentation in support of Dwane Roth testimony to Kansas House Water and Environment Committee, Topeka, KS, Feb. 2, 2017. Butler, J.J., Jr., D.O. Whittemore, and B.B. Wilson, Assessing prospects for sustainability in the High Plains aquifer in southwest Kansas, Groundwater Management District #3 Board Meeting, Topeka, KS, Feb. 8, 2017. Butler, J.J., Jr., D.O. Whittemore, and B. B. Wilson, A new approach for assessment of aquifers supporting irrigated agriculture over a range of spatial scales, 2017 Conference, Technical University of Dresden, June 9, 2017 Butler, J.J., Jr., Assessing the Prospects for the Sustainability of Aquifers Supporting Irrigated Agriculture, National Groundwater Association Brownbag Webinar, Oct. 26, 2017https://ngwa.confex.com/ngwa/archive/webprogramarchives/Session13483.html Whittemore, D.O., J.J. Butler, Jr., and B.B. Wilson, Status of the High Plains aquifer and the effect of climate, Mtg of Wichita Chapters of the American Meteorological Society and National Weather Association, Wichita, KS, Nov. 16, 2017. Deines, J.M., A.D. Kendall, J.J. Butler, Jr., and D,W, Hyndman, Evaluation of stakeholder-driven groundwater management through integrated modeling and remote sensing in the U.S. High Plains aquifer, (GC31G-04), American Geophysical Union (AGU), New Orleans, Dec. 13, 2017. Parker, JP and Rice, J (2017). Water and Carbon Footprints of Food - NGSS Style. Presentation at the MI Science Teachers' Association annual meeting, March 24, 2017--Novi, MI. Joe T. Ritchie and Bruno Basso (39-1) Modeling Record Corn Yields, Water Use and Transpiration Efficiency. Amer. Society of Agronomy (ASA), Tampa. FL Oct 22-25, 2017 Bruno Basso (39-2) Integrating Crop Models and Precision Agriculture Technologies to Understand Spatial and Temporal Variability of Crop Yield. ASA, Tampa. FL Oct 22-25, 2017 AgMIP-Wheat Team: S. Asseng, et al. 39-5 Global Wheat Production Affected by Increasing Temperature and Elevated CO2. ASA, Tampa. FL Oct 22-25, 2017 Bruce A. Kimball, USDA-ARS (66-2) Prediction of Evapotranspiration and Yields of Maize: An Inter-Comparison Among 31 Maize Models. ASA, Tampa. FL Oct 22-25, 2017 Jerry L. Hatfield, Bruno Basso, Sotiris V. Archontoulis, Christian Dold, John H. Prueger, Thomas J. Sauer (89-1) Long-Term Observations of Crop Water Use with Eddy Covariance Stations and Coupling with Crop Simulation Models. ASA, Tampa. FL Oct 22-25, 2017 Bruno Basso, Bernardo Maestrini, Ruben Ulbrich, (269-5) Big-Data to Understand Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Crop Yields. ASA, Tampa. FL Oct 22-25, 2017 Mir Zaman Hussain, Stephen K Hamilton, Ajay Bhardwaj, Bruno Basso, G. Philip Robertson. (38-21) Leaching Export of Dissolved Organic Carbon and Dissolved Nitrogen from Agricultural Soils in Southern MI. ASA, Tampa. FL Oct 22-25, 2017 Bruno Basso, Bernardo Maestrini, Ruben Ulbrich, Rich Price. (92-5) Thermal and Optical Imagery to Understand Spatial and Temporal Variation of Crop Water Use. ASA, Tampa. FL Oct 22-25, 2017 S. Asseng, et al. (185-4) AgMIP Wheat - Advances in Wheat Modeling. ASA, Tampa. FL Oct 22-25, 2017 Poster presentations: Butler, J.J., Jr., D.O. Whittemore, B.B. Wilson, and G.C. Bohling, A major challenge for modeling water-use reductions in aquifers supporting irrigated agriculture: The specific yield quandary, Abstract H23G-1761 presented at 2017, AGU, New Orleans, Dec. 12, 2017. Partridge, T., Winter, J., Osterberg, E.C., Magilligan, F.J., Hyndman, D.W., and A.D. Kendall, Characterizing the Seasonality and Spatiotemporal Evolution of the U.S. Warming Hole, AGU, New Orleans, LA December 11 - 15 Hamlin, Q.F., Kendall, A.D., Martin, S.L., Whitenack, H.D., Roush, J.A., Hannah, B.A., and D.W. Hyndman, Analyzing Variability in Landscape Nutrient Loading Using Spatially-Explicit Maps in the Great Lakes Basin, AGU, New Orleans, LA December 11 - 15. Xu, T., Deines, J.M., Kendall, A.D., and D.W. Hyndman, Identifying Spatiotemporal Changes In Irrigated Area Across Southwestern Michigan, USA, Using Remote Sensing and Climate Data, AGU, New Orleans, LA December 11 - 15 Rapp, J.R., Deines, J.M., Kendall, A.D. and D.W. Hyndman, Expanding the Annual Irrigation Maps (AIM) Product to the entire High Plains Aquifer (HPA): Addressing the Challenges of Cotton and Deficit-Irrigated Fields, AGU, New Orleans, LADecember 11 - 15. Kendall, A.D., Deines, J.M., and D.W. Hyndman, Simulating the Effects of Widespread Adoption of Efficient Irrigation Technologies on Irrigation Water Use, AGU, New Orleans, LA December 11 - 15. Martin, S.L., Kendall, A.D., and D.W. Hyndman, The Land-Use Legacy Effect: Groundwater mechanisms behind ecosystem responses to land use/cover, AGU, New Orleans, LA December 11 - 15. Kuhl, A.S., Kendall, A.D., Van Dam R.L., and D.W. Hyndman, Estimating Soil and Root Parameters of Biofuel Crops using a Hydrogeophysical Inversion, AGU, New Orleans, LA December 11 - 15. Ford, C., Kendall, A.D., and D.W. Hyndman, Changes to Watershed Hydrology due to Changing Snowmelt Patterns, Michigan, AGU, New Orleans, LADecember 11 - 15. Deines, J.M., Kendall, A.D. and D.W. Hyndman, Mapping Annual Irrigation Dynamics in the Northern US High Plains Aquifer Using Landsat Satellite Data, GSA, Seattle, WA October 22-25. Kuhl, A.S., Kendall, A.D., Van Dam, R.L., and D.W. Hyndman, Estimating Soil and Root Parameters using a Hydrogeophysical Inversion. AGU-SEG Hydrogeophysics Workshop, Palo Alto, CA July 24-27 2017. Bruno Basso (GC41D) Improving the Simulation of Climate Impacts on Agriculture: AgMIP and Related Research II, AGU, New Orleans, LA December 11 - 15. Bruno Basso (GC33I) Improving the Simulation of Climate Impacts on Agriculture: AgMIP and Related Research I, AGU, New Orleans, LA December 11 - 15. Session Convener: Dr. Basso was Chair of the Modeling and Climatology Division of ASAat the annual mtg in Tampa FL, October 22-25, 2017. Dr. Basso organized a symposium on: Advances in Crop Modeling Applications to Secure Food and Environmental Sustainability. Presentations to policy makers in agriculture and natural resource management: Kansas Governor's Office Press Release, Governor Sam Brownback holds Water Tour: Sustainable yield of the Ogallala aquifer is attainable, July 18, 2017-https://governor.kansas.gov/governor-sam-brownback-holds-water-toursustainable-yield-of-the-ogallala-aquifer-is-attainable/. Modeling Farmer Decisions under Uncertainty in Linked Natural and Socioeconomic Systems, plenary address by Jinhua Zhao, "US-China Joint Symposium on the Nexus of Food, Energy, and Water Systems," Franklin, Tennessee, December 7 - 9, 2017 Online magazine articles: Kansas Ag Connection, Brownback Holds Water Tour, July 19, 2017 - http://www.kansasagconnection.com/story-state.php?Id=742&yr=2017. Salina Journal, Brownback champions sustainable future of Ogallala Aquifer, July 18, 2017-example of the press coverage in western Kansas-http://www.salina.com/news/20170718/brownback-champions-sustainable-futureof-ogallala-aquifer/1 Future elementary teachers prepare to be agents of change with water video competition -- https://natsci.msu.edu/news-events/news/2017-05-future-elementary-teachers-prepare-to-be-agents-of-change-with-water-video-competition/ Burritos and The Environment: A Winning Combo for "Place Based" Learninghttps://ees.natsci.msu.edu/news/burritos-and-the-environment-a-winning-combo-for-place-based-learning/ What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Plan of Work for Year 4 Objective 1. Synthesize crop yield data & crop model ensembles Precision Agriculture-Crop modeling team (MSU) Field experiments at farmers' fields will continue. Data collected from these experiments will be used to ground truth the reflectance data obtained from UAV, airborne and satellite sensors and to further validate the model. Several publications will be generated from this field-based work in the fourth year of the project. Objective 2. Field Experimentation Agronomy team (USDA-ARS) In 2018 we will continue to compare the effects of reduced tillage and cover crops on the carbon and water balance at the Brooks and Coles sites. We collected a series of surface soil samples (0-15 cm) in the fall of 2017 to determine the potential effect after one year of changing a management system. These comparisons will continue. Data from 2016-2018 are being used to evaluate large scale evapotranspiration models as part of a joint effort between USDA-ARS and NASA. These data are being evaluated at the present time with the field scale results. Efforts will continue on the use of remote sensing indices to estimate net and gross primary productivity to relate it to the SIF data. These comparisons with the 2017 data will be completed in early 2018. An additional study on the effect of high temperature is underway in which only minimum temperatures are being increased (by 3°C). This change reflects the observation that minimum temperatures throughout the region are increasing more than maximum temperatures. We will be evaluating why increased minimum temperatures have such a negative impact on productivity. We will maintain the same soil water regimes to evaluate the interaction of temperature and soil water on wheat growth and productivity. We will also be evaluating the effect of altered environmental conditions on grain quality in these experiments. Objective 3. Integrated Systems Modeling Hydrology team (MSU) We will continue to develop methods to better understand the movement of water as it relates to agriculture. This will include: explicit mapping of tile drained fields; modeling of the expansion of irrigation systems based on remote sensing data and socioeconomic conditions; assembly of a state-level groundwater level datasets across the Corn Belt; and refinement of a nationwide soil textural maps using deep neural networks. Field data will continue to be collected as it relates to these projects. We will further develop model applications for Michigan to quantify root system dynamics across second-generation biofuels crops and a field-forest successional gradient. We will apply the fully-coupled LHM to simulate the hydrologic systems within Michigan, validated with project-collected water level, soil moisture, and streamflow data. We intend to use these developments to better understand the role of dormant season changes in snowmelt on the water budget in Michigan. We intend to upscale our analyses to the Corn Belt region to include: map irrigated fields across the entire corn belt; simulate surface water fluxes with LHM for this region; quantify nutrient applications (compared to remote-sensing estimates of N loss); quantify impacts of widespread biofuels production; simulate nutrient uptake along transport pathways. Hydrology team (KGS) The need for reliable pumping data, a major limitation of the water-balance approach, was also addressed in year 3 through an initial evaluation of the impact of limited pumping data on sustainability assessments. In Year 4 we will pursue a promising extension of this work and will develop a new approach to estimate groundwater pumping from climatic indices. These efforts will make it possible to apply the water-balance approach in areas where pumping data in limited. We have also started work on a new approach for assessing the impact of pumping reductions on drought resiliency. The KGS team also continued develop methods to interpret water level data from a network of specially constructed and continuously monitored observation wells in western and central Kansas. These methods, which provide important insights about an aquifer's response to groundwater pumping for irrigation, will be further developed in Year 4. Economics team (MSU) We will continue to implement the structural dynamic estimation model. We have obtained interesting preliminary results, and plan to present the results at professional meetings to get feedback. Economics team (UNL) By the end of 2018, we intend to complete our analyses of the impacts of climate change on irrigation water demand in the High Plains Aquifer and the effects of well yield on irrigation behavior. We will also further develop a SALUS-based dynamic irrigation and trading model. Climate team (MSU) We will use field scale yield stability maps as a baseline to run the SALUS model at a high level of spatial resolution (30 m2) to expand research questions under different climate and management scenarios. This investigation will lead to a better understanding of the impact of soil, weather and management decisions on crop yield and the impact of those variables on the environment. Best management scenarios will be executed in model runs to evaluate the impact of such practices on economic returns for farmers. Objective 4. Extension and Decision Support System Precision Agriculture-Crop Modeling team (MSU) We will continue to synthesize data obtained from our preliminary investigation of field-scale yield stability maps obtained by remote sensing. This effort will result in more detailed quantification of the impact of spatial and temporal variation of crop growth as it relates to the inefficient use of agricultural inputs. Ground truth validation will be an integral aspect of this investigation so that results will be quantified with a high degree of accuracy. Climate team (Dartmouth) Over the next year we will focus on the historical agricultural impacts of the warming hole and continue our regional climate modeling work. We have completed the first phase of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) for the Central US, and are assessing and calibrating the model. We expect to use WRF for both generating future climate projections and exploring the physical mechanisms of the warming hole. Objective 5. Provide Integrated Education Methods Education team (MSU) In the coming year, the Education team will again present at the annual meeting of the Michigan Science Teachers Association. The group will provide teacher professional development workshops in the summer of 2018 that are based on informed decision-making on human impacts on the environment. Pre-service teachers enrolled in three undergraduate science courses in 2018 at MSU will participate in projects focused on individual and societal decision-making on the environmental impacts of agriculture. Articles based on the group's work with future teachers (undergraduate courses) and current teachers (professional development workshops) will be submitted to relevant journals.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? IMPACT Tremendous challenges lay ahead as farmers try to increase food production to meet the demands of a growing population without increasing the amount of land cultivated. Unfortunately, the pressure to increase production can lead to nutrient loss through surface run-off, groundwater leaching and greenhouse gas emissions at a high cost to farmers and the environment. However, it's not simple to know the right amount of fertilizer to a meet a crop's needs at a given time in its development. Natural variation of soil, topography, weather and water flow characteristics of a particular field further complicate the problem. Our estimate of the cost of annual cumulative Nitrogen (N) losses in the Midwest is ~US$576 million, 97.3 million GJ of energy, and greenhouse gas emissions (CO2 equivalents) of more than 700 million metric tonnes. In year three, PreCiSA team members have used experimental and modeling research to address questions related to the sustainability of cropping systems. We have collected and analyzed imagery from UAV, aircraft sensors and more than 30,000 Landsat images to evaluate crop growth patterns. Ground truth measurements from multiple fields are then integrated with crop models to simulate spatial and temporal variability of water and nitrogen dynamics. Simply put, we use remotely sensed data in association with ground truth measurements to monitor crop growth and identify zones within fields where that growth varies; then model simulations are used to create a "prescription map". In this way, agricultural inputs can be applied to address a crop's needs in each different zone. We found stable, high-producing areas (50% of corn and soybean fields in the Midwest US) released the least amount of N. Stable, low-producing areas (25% of corn and soybean fields) released the most N, more than five times higher than high-producing areas. Unstable areas are those where crop growth fluctuates from one growing season to another. We found that unstable areas were intermediate for N loss. The best predictor of variability in both high- and low- producing stable areas is the previous year's yield map, while the best predictor of crop growth patterns in unstable areas is imagery collected during the growing season. By matching N application rates to crop yield stability classes we estimate N losses can be reduced by more than 1 million metric tonnes without affecting crop yields. Ongoing work includes collection of remotely sensed data and ground truth measurements; development of models to estimate soil moisture, root distribution and aquifer recharge; and analysis of climatic trends. Project results have already been presented in academic and professional meetings and will be incorporated into school lesson plans by teachers trained in project concepts. Objective 1. Synthesize crop yield data & crop model ensembles The MSU Precision Agriculture/crop modeling team made ground truth measurements of plant and soil parameters to evaluate the ability of various remote sensing platforms (UAV, aircraft and satellites) to detect crop N levels. Our approach shows N fertilizer application rates can be reduced by 20% without impacting grain yield. Objective 2. Field Experimentation The MSU team installed 35 time-lapse cameras in different stability zones to evaluate the influence of plant spacing and time of emergence on final grain size and number. The USDA-ARS Agronomy team completed a geospatial analysis to quantify soil differences in both vertical and horizontal dimensions at two sites. Preliminary conclusions are: 1) 50% of the area used for corn and soybean production in the Midwest US has consistently high production. The remaining half is split nearly equally between those areas where yields are consistently low, and those areas where yields fluctuate from high to low; and 2) Preliminary results on N fertilizer efficiency demonstrate the very high environmental, economic and energetic cost of nutrient losses. Within-field N losses ranged from 11 kg ha-1 in stable, high productivity areas to 59 kg ha-1 in stable, low productivity areas. Unstable areas averaged 24 kg ha-1. These losses correspond to an annual cost of ~US$576 million, energy losses of 97.3 million GJ, and greenhouse gas emissions greater than 700 MMT CO2 equivalents and validate the management-by-yield approach. Matching N use to crop yield stability classes could reduce regional reactive N losses by up to 1.38 Tg without affecting crop yields. Our findings also indicate satellite images are a valuable tool to inform within-season decisions. Objective 3. Integrated Systems Modeling The MSU Hydrology team collected Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) data and drone imagery in SW Michigan at a unique land cover transition site to better understand the interaction between land cover and soil moisture. We continued work on a modeling effort to use those data to directly infer soil moisture with linked hydrologic and ERT models. These approaches will be particularly useful for farmers who wish to adopt precision irrigation technologies. The KGS Hydrology team continued work on a new water-balance approach designed to assess the impact of management actions on the sustainability of aquifers heavily utilized for irrigated agriculture. This approach allows prediction of water-level response to pumping reductions with water-level and pumping data. The MSU Climate team found that the number of back-to-back wet days in the Midwest has increased and the number of back-to-back dry days has decreased markedly. Our analysis compared early 20th century data (1901-1930) to more recent data (1987-2016). The Dartmouth Climate team evaluated spatial and temporal variations of mean temperature and precipitation across the Central US, with an emphasis on areas where small or decreasing temperature trends since 1900 have been observed. The MSU Economics team has found that a major factor causing farmers to delay adoption of LEPA is the cost associated to learn about the profitability of the technology. The UNL Economics team began a statistical assessment of the impacts of climate change on irrigation water demand in the HPA. Objective 4. Extension and Decision Support System The MSU Crop modeling team analyzed nearly 30,000 Landsat images. Results show that where crop growth patterns are stable over time, spatial variability is best predicted by historical yield maps (multiple yield maps from previous years). For zones where plant growth is more sensitive to precipitation and yields fluctuate from one year to the next, the best predictor of crop growth spatial patterns are remote sensing images from within the growing season. These results show the power of using historical yield maps and within-season remote sensing imagery to predict crop growth spatial patterns and supports the approach of responding to in-season conditions in order to achieve significant reductions in N losses. An analysis of stability maps developed with Landsat imagery and Google Earth Engine was completed to assess the temporal stability of corn and soybean yields on Midwest fields (30 Mha). The dataset for this analysis was comprised of six years of high resolution satellite imagery and crop data layers. We have also established a new platform to run large scale simulations of the SALUS model with high resolution soil data. Objective 5. Provide integrated education methods The MSU Education team used project concepts to develop curricula for an undergraduate course for 180 future teachers (K-8) and a capstone course for 14 future secondary science teachers. Two, three-day professional development workshops were held, one each for elementary science teachers and secondary science teachers. The environmental impacts of agriculture were taught in each of these courses. In all, these teachers could potentially reach more than 5000 students each year with concepts from the project.

Publications

  • Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Griggs, B.W., and J.J. Butler, Jr., Groundwater in the American West: How to harness hydrogeological analysis to improve groundwater management, in The Water Problem: Climate Change and Water Policy in the United States, edited by P. Mulroy, Brookings Institution Press, 113-144.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Durand, J.-L. et al. (2017). How accurately do maize crop models simulate the interactions of atmospheric CO2 concentration levels with limited water supply on water use and yield? European Journal of Agronomy. doi: 10.1016/j.eja.2017.01.002
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Ehrhardt, F. et al. (2017). Assessing uncertainties in crop and pasture ensemble model simulations of productivity and N2O emissions. Global Change Biology. doi: 10.1111/gcb.13965
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Fronzek, S. et al. (2017). Classifying multi-model wheat yield impact response surfaces showing sensitivity to temperature and precipitation change. Agricultural Systems, 159, 209-224. doi: 10.1016/j.agsy.2017.08.004
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Jones, J.W. et al. (2017). Toward a new generation of agricultural system data, models, and knowledge products: State of agricultural systems science. Agricultural Systems, 155, 269-288. doi: 10.1016/j.agsy.2016.09.021
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Jones, J.W. et al. (2017). Brief history of agricultural systems modeling. Agricultural Systems, 155, 240-254. doi: 10.1016/j.agsy.2016.05.014
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Liu, L., and Basso, B. (2017). Spatial evaluation of maize yield in Malawi. Agricultural Systems, 157, 185-192. doi: 10.1016/j.agsy.2017.07.
  • Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Sykes, J., D. Hyndman, and S. MacRitchie, Climate Change Effects on Groundwater, Chapter 7 in Grannemann, G. and Van Stempvoort, D. (Eds.), Groundwater science relevant to the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement: A status report. Final version, May, 2016. Published (online) by Environment and Climate Change Canada and U.S. EPA, binational.net//wp-content/uploads/2016/05/GW-Report-final-EN.pdf.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Antle, J.M. et al. (2017). Towards a new generation of agricultural system data, models and knowledge products: Design and improvement. Agricultural Systems, 155, 255-268. doi: 10.1016/j.agsy.2016.10.002
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Asseng, S. et al. (2017). Hot spots of wheat yield decline with rising temperatures. Global Change Biology, 23(6), 2464-2472. doi: 10.1111/gcb.13530
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Chenu, K. et al. (2017). Contribution of Crop Models to Adaptation in Wheat. Trends in Plant Science, 22(6), 472-490. doi: 10.1016/j.tplants.2017.02.003
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Cotterman, K.A., Kendall, A.D., Basso, B., Hyndman, D.W. (2017). Groundwater depletion and climate change: future prospects of crop production in the Central High Plains Aquifer. Climatic Change. doi: 10.1007/s10584-017-1947-7 Link
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Liu, L., and Basso, B. (2017). Spatial evaluation of switchgrass productivity under historical and future climate scenarios in Michigan. GCB Bioenergy, 9(8), 1320-1332. doi: 10.1111/gcbb.12417
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Maiorano, A. et al. (2017). Crop model improvement reduces the uncertainty of the response to temperature of multi-model ensembles. Field Crops Research, 202, 5-20. doi: 10.1016/j.fcr.2016.05.001
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Reimer, A. et al. (2017). Moving toward sustainable farming systems: Insights from private and public sector dialogues on nitrogen management. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, 72(1), 5-9. doi: 10.2489/jswc.72.1.5a
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Thomson, A.M. et al. (2017). Science in the Supply Chain: Collaboration Opportunities for Advancing Sustainable Agriculture in the United States. Agricultural & Environmental Letters, 2(1). doi: 10.2134/ael2017.05.0015
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Wang, E. et al. (2017). The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions. Nature Plants, 3(8). doi: 10.1038/nplants.2017.102
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Foster, T., Brozovi?, N., and Butler, A.P., 2017, Effects of initial aquifer conditions on economic benefits from groundwater conservation, Water Resources Research, DOI: 10.1002/2016WR019365.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Young, R.K. and Brozovic, N., 2016, Innovations in groundwater management: Smart markets for transferable groundwater extraction rights, Technology and Innovation, v. 17, 219-226, DOI: 10.3727/194982416X14520374943220.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Kuwayama, Y., Young. R.K., and Brozovi?, N., 2016, Groundwater scarcity: Management approaches and recent innovations, in J. Ziolkowska and J. Peterson (eds.), Competition for Water Resources: Experiences and Management Approaches in the U.S. and Europe, Elsevier, 480 p.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Kuhl, A., A. Kendall, and D. W. Hyndman, 2018, Quantifying soil water and root dynamics using a joint hydrogeophysical inversion, Vadose Zone Journal.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Deines, J., A. Kendall, and D. W. Hyndman, 2017, Annual irrigation dynamics in the US Northern High Plains derived from Landsat satellite data, Geophysical Research Letters.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Cotterman, K, A.D. Kendall, J.M. Deines, B. Basso, and D.W. Hyndman, 2017, Groundwater depletion and climate change: future prospects of crop production in the Central High Plains Aquifer, Climatic Change, 1-14, doi:10.1007/s10584-017-1947-7.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Luscz, E. C., A. D. Kendall, D. W. Hyndman, 2017, A spatially explicit statistical model for quantifying nutrient source, pathway, and delivery at the regional scale, Biogeochemistry, doi:10.1007/s10533-017-0305-1.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Martin, S.L., D. B. Hayes, A. D. Kendall, D. W. Hyndman, 2017, The land-use legacy effect: Towards a mechanistic understanding of time-lagged ecosystem responses to land use/cover. Science of the Total Environment, doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.11.158.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2018 Citation: Dahl, T., A. Kendall, and D. W. Hyndman, Impacts of Projected Climate Change on Sediment Yield and Dredging Costs, Hydrologic Processes.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2018 Citation: Nshimyimana, J.P.,S. Martin, M. Flood, M. Verhougstraete, D.W. Hyndman, and J. Rose, Regional variations of bovine and porcine fecal pollution as a function of landscape, nutrient, and hydrological factors, Journal of Environmental Quality
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Parish, A., A.D. Kendall, A. Thompson, R. Stenjem, and D. W. Hyndman, Perennial cellulosic biofuel crops significantly alter ET and recharge fluxes: Direct quantification using Automated Equilibrium Tension Lysimeters, Global Change Biology Bioenergy
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2018 Citation: Partridge, T., J. Winter, E. Osterberg, D.W. Hyndman, A. Kendall, F. Magilligan, Spatially Distinct Seasonal Patterns and Forcings of the U.S. Warming Hole, Geophysical Research Letters.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2018 Citation: Smidt, S., A. Tayyebi, A.D. Kendall, B.C. Pijanowski, and D.W. Hyndman, Agricultural and Economic Implications of Providing Soil-Based Constraints on Urban Expansion: Land Use Forecasts to 2050, Journal of Environmental Management.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2018 Citation: Smidt, A.D. Kendall, B.C. Pijanowski, and D.W. Hyndman, Increased Dependence on Irrigated Crop Production across the CONUS, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2017 Citation: Li, Haoyang and Jinhua Zhao, 2017, Rebound Effects of New Irrigation Technologies: The Role of Water Rights, American Journal of Agricultural Economics
  • Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2018 Citation: Li, Haoyang and Jinhua Zhao, 2018, What Drives (No) Adoption of New Irrigation Technologies: A Structural Dynamic Estimation Approach, working paper, Michigan State University
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: J.M. Winter, J.R. Lopez, A.C. Ruane, C. Young, B.R. Scanlon, and C. Rosenzweig, 2017: Integrating Water Resource Scarcity into Future Agricultural Assessments. Anthropocene, 18, 15-26.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: J.R. Lopez, J.M. Winter, J. Elliott, A.C. Ruane, C.H. Porter, and G. Hoogenboom, 2017: Integrating Growth Stage Deficit Irrigation into a Process Based Crop Model. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 243, 84-92.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2017 Citation: R.E. Alter, H.C. Douglas, J.M. Winter, and E.A.B. Eltahir: Regional climate change attributed to agricultural intensification in the central US. Geophysical Research Letters, in press.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2018 Citation: T. Partridge, J.M. Winter, E.C. Osterberg, A. Kendall, D. Hyndman, and F. J. Magilligan: Implications of the North American warming hole for US agricultural area extreme events. Geophysical Research Letters.
  • Type: Websites Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Groundwater science relevant to the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement: A status report. Final version available at Published-binational.net//wp-content/uploads/2016/05/GW-Report-final-EN.pdf
  • Type: Websites Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: Future elementary teachers prepare to be agents of change with water video competition available at natsci.msu.edu/news-events/news/2017-05-future-elementary-teachers-prepare-to-be-agents-of-change-with-water-video-competition
  • Type: Websites Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: Burritos and The Environment: A Winning Combo for "Place Based" Learning available at ees.natsci.msu.edu/news/burritos-and-the-environment-a-winning-combo-for-place-based-learning
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: Modeling Farmer Decisions under Uncertainty in Linked Natural and Socioeconomic Systems at the US-China Joint Symposium on the Nexus of Food, Energy, and Water Systems
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: KGS sustainability assessment approach for WCA and LEMA planning, Finney County Public Conversationat the Finney County Water Conservation Area meeting
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: Aquifer sustainability assessment for an area northwest of Garden City, testimony to Kansas House Water and Environment Committee
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: Assessing prospects for sustainability in the High Plains aquifer in southwest Kansas at the Groundwater Management District #3 Board Meeting
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: A new approach for assessment of aquifers supporting irrigated agriculture over a range of spatial scales, NovCare (Novel Methods for Subsurface Characterization and Monitoring) at the 2017 Conference, Technical University of Dresden
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: Status of the High Plains aquifer and the effect of climate at the Wichita Chapters of the American Meteorological Society and National Weather Association
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: A major challenge for modeling water-use reductions in aquifers supporting irrigated agriculture: The specific yield quandary at the AGU Fall Meeting, New Orleans, LA, USA December 11  15
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: Evaluation of stakeholder-driven groundwater management through integrated modeling and remote sensing in the U.S. High Plains aquifer at the AGU Fall Meeting, New Orleans, LA, USA December 11  15
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: Assessing the Prospects for the Sustainability of Aquifers Supporting Irrigated Agriculture at the National Groundwater Association Brownbag Webinar recording available at: https://ngwa.confex.com/ngwa/archive/webprogramarchives/Session13483.html
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: Evaluation of Stakeholder-Driven Groundwater Management through Integrated Modeling and Remote Sensing in the US High Plains Aquifer at the AGU Fall Meeting, New Orleans, LA, USA December 11  15
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: Characterizing the Seasonality and Spatiotemporal Evolution of the U.S. Warming Hole at the AGU Fall Meeting, New Orleans, LA, USA December 11  15
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: Analyzing Variability in Landscape Nutrient Loading Using Spatially-Explicit Maps in the Great Lakes Basin at the AGU Fall Meeting, New Orleans, LA, USA December 11  15
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: Estimating Soil and Root Parameters of Biofuel Crops using a Hydrogeophysical Inversion at the AGU Fall Meeting, New Orleans, LA, USA December 11  15
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: Changes to Watershed Hydrology due to Changing Snowmelt Patterns, Michigan, US at the AGU Fall Meeting, New Orleans, LA, USA December 11  15
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: Mapping Annual Irrigation Dynamics in the Northern US High Plains Aquifer Using Landsat Satellite Data at the Geological Society of America Annual Meeting, Seattle, WA, USA, October 22-25
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: Estimating Soil and Root Parameters using a Hydrogeophysical Inversion at the AGU-SEG Hydrogeophysics Workshop, Palo Alto, CA, USA, July 24-27 2017
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: Identifying Spatiotemporal Changes In Irrigated Area Across Southwestern Michigan, USA, Using Remote Sensing and Climate Data at the AGU Fall Meeting, New Orleans, LA, USA December 11  15
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: Expanding the Annual Irrigation Maps (AIM) Product to the entire High Plains Aquifer (HPA): Addressing the Challenges of Cotton and Deficit-Irrigated Fields at the AGU Fall Meeting, New Orleans, LA, USA December 11  15
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: Simulating the Effects of Widespread Adoption of Efficient Irrigation Technologies on Irrigation Water Use at the AGU Fall Meeting, New Orleans, LA, USA December 11  15
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: The Land-Use Legacy Effect: Groundwater mechanisms behind ecosystem responses to land use/cover at the AGU Fall Meeting, New Orleans, LA, USA December 11  15
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: Water and Carbon Footprints of Food  NGSS Style at the Michigan Science Teachers Association
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: 39-1 Modeling Record Corn Yields, Water Use and Transpiration Efficiency at the Amer. Society of Agronomy annual meeting, Oct 22-25
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: 39-2 Integrating Crop Models and Precision Agriculture Technologies to Understand Spatial and Temporal Variability of Crop Yield at the Amer. Society of Agronomy annual meeting, Oct 22-25
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: 39-5 Global Wheat Production Affected by Increasing Temperature and Elevated CO2 at the Amer. Society of Agronomy annual meeting, Oct 22-25
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: 66-2 Prediction of Evapotranspiration and Yields of Maize: An Inter-Comparison Among 31 Maize Models at the Amer. Society of Agronomy annual meeting, Oct 22-25
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: Poster #1250 Application of a New Method for Crop Yield Forecasting in Tanzania at the Amer. Society of Agronomy annual meeting, Oct 22-25
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: 89-1 Long-Term Observations of Crop Water Use with Eddy Covariance Stations and Coupling with Crop Simulation Models at the Amer. Society of Agronomy annual meeting, Oct 22-25
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: 269-5 Big-Data to Understand Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Crop Yields at the Amer. Society of Agronomy annual meeting, Oct 22-25
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: 38-21 Leaching Export of Dissolved Organic Carbon and Dissolved Nitrogen from Agricultural Soils in Southern Michigan at the Amer. Society of Agronomy annual meeting, Oct 22-25
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: 92-5 Thermal and Optical Imagery to Understand Spatial and Temporal Variation of Crop Water Use at the Amer. Society of Agronomy annual meeting, Oct 22-25
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: 185-4 AgMIP Wheat  Advances in Wheat Modeling at the Amer. Society of Agronomy annual meeting, Oct 22-25
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: GC41D Improving the Simulation of Climate Impacts on Agriculture: AgMIP and Related Research II Posters at the AGU Fall Meeting, New Orleans, LA, USA December 11  15
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: GC33I Improving the Simulation of Climate Impacts on Agriculture: AgMIP and Related Research at the AGU Fall Meeting, New Orleans, LA, USA December 11  15


Progress 03/01/16 to 02/28/17

Outputs
Target Audience:The target audience for the results of this research is broad and includes agricultural scientists, extension specialists, agricultural producers, policy makers in agriculture and natural resource management. We also intend to reach both graduate and undergraduate students through direct work during the research phase of the project. Students in grades K-12 will be reached through development of instructional materials based on project research results and training of K-12 teachers in the use of those materials. Private sector entities included in the target audience include UAV companies and precision agricultural technology companies. The target audience was reached in the following ways in Year 2: Agricultural and natural resource scientists were reached through presentations at numerous professional meetings as demonstrated by the list of presentations shown in the Products section of REEport. These organizations include: American Society of Agronomy (ASA), Geological Society of America (GSA), American Geophysical Union (AGU), Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, China-US Symposium on Environmental Science and Pollution Control, Toward Sustainable Groundwater in Agriculture Conference, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), European Geosciences Union (EGU), 19th International Nitrogen Workshop (Sweden), VI Annual Meeting on Agricultural Modeling Intercomparison and Improvements (AgMIP), University of Arizona Department of Atmospheric and Hydrologic Sciences. Extension Agents were reached through presentations at professional national agronomy meetings such as the American Society of Agronomy (ASA). Agricultural producers were reached through presentations made at annual meetings of the Michigan Corn Marketing Program, the Michigan Wheat Growers and the Michigan Soybean Promotion Committee. Policy makers were reached through presentations at numerous conferences and meetings including: 2016 Governor's Conference on the Future of Water in Kansas, Kansas Water Authority, 60th Annual Meeting of the SW Kansas Irrigation Association, Kansas Farm Bureau 9th District Meeting and Legislative Update, 2016 Consortium of Universities for the Advancement of Hydrologic Science (CUAHSI), Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Quantification, Limitations, and Trade Policy Workshop, National Academy of Engineering, American Geosciences Institute. Graduate and undergraduate level students are participating directly on the project for their thesis or dissertation research. Students are listed by name under the Training section of the REEport. Students in secondary science classes will be reached by this project through lessons that were developed by their teachers while attending a 3-day professional development workshop. There were 14 teachers and education professionals in attendance in the workshop in the summer of 2016 at MSU. In addition, a presentation about the project was made to the Michigan Science Teachers' Association. K-12 students will be reached by concepts of this project through learning activities included in the curricula of undergraduate education majors enrolled at MSU (75 future teachers attended a class at MSU that included materials developed from this project). UAV companies and Precision agricultural technology companies were reached with a presentation at CiBO Technologies. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Training- Personnel trained in Year 2 of the PreCiSA project Training is ongoing in workshops, conferences and at the collegiate level. Project results have also been incorporated into materials used in a workshop for professional development of secondary school science teachers as well as an undergraduate course for future teachers. Both undergraduates and graduate students are working directly on the project for their thesis or dissertation. Individuals directly being trained within the scope of this project are listed below. MSU Agronomy group: Lin Liu (PhD candidate) Guanyuan Shuai (PhD candidate) Michael Metiva (PhD candidate) Ben Tirrell (MS candidate) Greg Putnam (Undergraduate assistant) Guillermo Jimenez (Undergraduate assistant) Olivia Nelson Davidson (Undergraduate assistant) MSU Hydrology group: Tianfang Xu (PhD candidate) Jill Deines (PhD candidate) Sam Smidt (PhD candidate) Erin Haacker (PhD candidate) Alex Kuhl (PhD candidate) Austin Parish (MS candidate) Xiao Liu (MS candidate) Quercus Hamlin (Undergraduate assistant) Jeremy Rapp (Undergraduate assistant) MSU Economics group: Haoyang Li (PhD candidate) UNL Economics group: James Keeler (MS candidate) Dylan Riley (MS candidate) Dartmouth Climate group: Trevor Partridge (MS candidate) Andrew Crutchfield (Undergraduate assistant) Jessica Jones (Undergraduate assistant) How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Listed here are the oral and poster presentations made in the second year of the project: Oral presentations: "Rebound Effects of New Irrigation Technologies: The Role of Water Rights", presented by Haoyang Li at the annual meeting of Agricultural and Applied Economics Assoc., August 1, Boston, MA. "Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change: The Role of Technologies and Institutions", presented by Jinhua Zhao at the China-US Symposium on Environmental Science and Pollution Control, October 26 - 29,Yixing, China. Butler, J.J., Jr., D.O. Whittemore, and B.B. Wilson, Prospects for extending the lifetime of the High Plains aquifer - The role of groundwater flow, 60th Annual Mtg of the SW Kansas Irrigation Assoc., Feb. 9,Ulysses, KS Butler, J.J., Jr., D.O. Whittemore, and B.B. Wilson, Prospects for extending the lifetime of the High Plains aquifer, Kansas Farm Bureau 9th District Mtg and Legislative Update, April 7,Tribune, KS Butler, J.J., Jr., Subsurface characterization over a range of temporal and spatial scales, 2016 CUAHSI Biennial Symposium, Shepherdstown, WV, July 26 Butler, J.J., Jr., D.O. Whittemore, and B. B. Wilson, Sustainability of aquifers supporting irrigated agriculture: A case study of the High Plains aquifer in Kansas, OECD-WFI Virtual Water in Agriculture Products: Quantification, Limitations, and Trade Policy Workshop, Sept. 16,Lincoln, NE Butler, J.J., Jr., D.O. Whittemore, and B. B. Wilson, The High Plains aquifer in Kansas: Current conditions and future prospects, Pardee Keynote Session - The High Plains Aquifer: Can it be Managed for Today and the Future? 2016 GSA mtg, Sept. 27,Denver, CO Butler, J.J., Jr., Assessing the sustainability of aquifers supporting irrigated agriculture: A case study of the High Plains aquifer in Kansas, Dept of Earth and Envir. Sciences, MSU, Sept. 30,Lansing, MI Butler, J.J., Jr., Assessing the sustainability of aquifers supporting irrigated agriculture, Earth Resources Engineering Symposium on Groundwater Depletion, National Academy of Engineering, Oct. 11,Washington, D.C. Butler, J.J., Jr., D.O. Whittemore, and B. B. Wilson, The High Plains aquifer: A Kansas perspective, American Geosciences Institute Critical Issues Forum - Addressing Changes in Regional Groundwater Resources: Lessons from the High Plains Aquifer, Oct. 27,Golden, CO Butler, J.J., Jr., D.O. Whittemore, B.B. Wilson, and S. Knobbe, Monitoring the hydrologic impacts of the Sheridan 6 Local Enhanced Management Area, 2016 Governor's Conference on the Future of Water, Kansas, Manhattan, KS, Nov. 15 Butler, J.J., Jr., G.C. Bohling, D.O. Whittemore, and B.B. Wilson, A sustainability index for assessment and management of aquifers supporting irrigated agriculture, Abstract H54B-05 presented at American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Mtg, Dec.16,San Francisco, CA Deines, J.M., Kendall, A.D. and D.W. Hyndman, (2016), Multi-year mapping of irrigated croplands over the US High Plains Aquifer using satellite data, 2016 AGU Mtg, Dec 12-16,San Francisco, CA Kendall, A.D. and D.W. Hyndman, (2016), Quantifying the Impacts of Irrigation Technology Adoption on Water Resources in the High Plains Aquifer, USA, Toward Sustainable Groundwater in Agriculture, June 28-30,Burlingame CA Hyndman, D.W., Kendall, A.D., Basso, B., Cotterman, K.A., Haacker, E.M.K., Pei, L., and S.J Smidt. (2016), Quantifying the Impact of Human Activities on Water Sustainability and Crop Yields Across the High Plains Aquifer Using Process-Based Models, Toward Sustainable Groundwater in Agriculture, June 28-30,Burlingame, CA Kendall, A.D., Cotterman, K., and D.W. Hyndman, (2016), Quantifying the Impacts of Irrigation Technology Adoption on Water Resources in the High Plains Aquifer, USA, EGU Annual Mtg, April 18-22,Vienna, Austria Kendall, A.D. and D.W. Hyndman (Invited, 2016), Water Sustainability and the Coupled Land Atmosphere and Socioeconomic Systems of the High Plains Aquifer, University of Arizona Dept of Atmospheric and Hydrologic Sciences Seminar,April 6. NGSS Human Impacts - Water, energy, food and climate change presented by J. Rice and J. Parker at the Michigan Science Teachers' Assoc., March 4, Lansing MI Prediction of Evapotranspiration and Yields of Maize: An Inter-Comparison Among 29 Maize Models presented by Bruce Kimball at the American Society of Agronomy (ASA) Annual meeting, Nov. 6-9,Phoenix, AZ Past Experience Supports Future Choices for Cropping Systems Management: The Italian Long-Term Agro-Ecosystem Experiments (LTAE) through the IC-FAR Project and the Maggnet International Network presented by Ileana Iocola at the American Society of Agronomy Annual meeting, Nov. 6-9,Phoenix, AZ Prediction of Evapotranspiration and Yields of Maize: An Inter-Comparison Among 29 Maize Models. Presented by Bruce Kimball at the American Society of Agronomy Annual meeting, Nov. 6-9,Phoenix, AZ Simulation of soil processes using ensemble crop models presented by Bruno Basso at the VI Annual Meeting on Agricultural Modeling Intercomparison and Improvements, June 30, 2016 in Montpelier, FrancePresentation: Designing Variable Rate N Strategy in Cropping Systems presented by Bruno Basso at the Keynote Speaker at the 19th International Nitrogen Workshop, June 27-29,Skara, Sweden Integrating Crop models with Remote Sensing to enhance the efficiency of agricultural systems presented by Bruno Basso at the CiBO Technologies, May 17, Cambridge, MA Assessing and modeling sustainability of agricultural systems presented by Bruno Basso at the Generation IM, Dec 16, 2016,London, UK Applications of UAVs in row-crop agriculture: advantages and limitations presented by Bruno Basso at AGU Fall Mtg., Dec. 12, San Francisco, CA Poster presentations: Analysis of Long-Term Crop Water Use Efficiency Under Different Management Practices in the Upper Midwest presented by Lin Liu at the ASA Annual mtg, Nov. 6-9,Phoenix, AZ Liu, X., Kendall, A.D., and D.W. Hyndman, (2016), Hydrologic Response to Irrigation across the Republican River Basin of the High Plains Aquifer, presented by X. Liu at 2016 AGU, Dec12-16,San Francisco, CA Rapp, J.R., Deines, J.M, Kendall, A.D., and D.W. Hyndman, (2016), Assessing inaccuracies in remotely sensed irrigation maps across the High Plains Aquifer, presented by J. Rapp at 2016 AGU, Dec12-16,San Francisco, CA Hamlin, Q.F., Kendall, A.D., Martin, S.L., Whitenack, H.D., and D.W. Hyndman, (2016), Spatially-explicit modelling of nutrient loading to the landscape in the Great Lakes Basin, presented by Q. Hamlin at 2016 AGU, Dec 12-16,San Francisco, CA Session conveners: J.M. Winter, B.Basso: The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) at 2016 AGU, Dec 13, San Francisco, CA Presentations to extension agents and agricultural producers: Nitrogen management in corn using remote sensing presented by Bruno Basso at the Michigan Corn Marketing Program. Jan 4, Lansing, MI Assessing spatial and temporal variability of wheat yield and N uptake using UAV and crop modeling presented by Bruno Basso at the MI Wheat program.Jan, 12, Lansing, MI Spatial variability of soybeans using remote sensing presented by Bruno Basso at the Michigan Soybean Promotion Committee.Sept 4, Lansing,MI Presentations to policy makers in agriculture and natural resource management: Butler, J.J., Jr., D.O. Whittemore, and B.B. Wilson, Assessing prospects for sustainability in the High Plains aquifer in southwest Kansas, 2016 Governor's Conference on the Future of Water, Nov. 15, Kansas, Manhattan, KS Crop Yield Forecasting Systems presented by Bruno Basso at FAO. July 1,Rome, Italy Butler, J.J., Jr., KGS research on the High Plains aquifer, presentation to the Kansas Water Authority, May 17, Oakley, KS Online magazine articles: Bruno Basso: MSU's 2016 Innovation of the Year research.msu.edu/bruno-basso-msu-innovation-of-the-year-2016/ Melissa Gutwein: Decreasing out water footprint msutoday.msu.edu/360/2017/melissa-gutwein-decreasing-our-water-footprint/ What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Plan of Work for Yr 3 Objective 1. Synthesize crop yield data & crop model ensembles Precision Ag-Crop modeling team team (MSU) We will continue the field experiments with individual farmers to expand our dataset of field-scale observations and ground truth measurements. These data will be used to validate both the model and the reflectance data obtained from UAV, airborne and satellite sources. We will continue to run the SALUS model across scales (field, county and region) to quantify the impact of management and the interaction between climate variability and soils on grain yield and yield components. We will continue to work on linking field-scale yield stability maps obtained from remote sensing imagery with crop simulation models to identify best management scenarios for each of the fields. Objective 2. Field Experimentation Agronomy team (USDA-ARS) We have expanded our network with energy flux towers to include a field with cover crops and strip tillage to provide a direct comparison to the existing field with conventional chisel plow tillage in the fall and no cover crop. We will be evaluating the difference in carbon and water fluxes between these two systems. The previous research we have completed provides a method of being able to quantify the uncertainty in these measurements. Based on previous work on remote sensing we are working on the extrapolation of productivity estimates to encompass the Midwest. Our goal is to relate the observations from reflectance measurements to the observations we collect with the OCP-2 platform. This will provide an estimate of the spatial and temporal variation in productivity across the Midwest. We have been working with the Genomics to Field project to evaluate the interaction of maize genetic response to environmental conditions and will be conducted an analysis of the response of maize inbred to environment across multiple locations. These analyses will provide a quantitative assessment of genetic variation. We will develop decision tools for consultants to aid in determining the stage of phenological development and chlorophyll status of corn based on our understanding of remotely sensed indices. An effort is underway to combine these two approaches with seasonal weather data and a seasonal forecast to determine the potential impact of foliar nitrogen applications. Remote sensing indices are also being used to quantify how improved soils affect a crop's ability to withstand environmental stresses and to increase effective precipitation available to the crop. Objective 3. Integrated Systems Modeling Hydrology team (MSU) We will continue to maintain our observation network in Northern Lower MI, and build on our analyses from Yr 2. We will also continue to collect additional ERT datasets at our transition site, and refine the methods used to calculate soil moisture via joint model inversion. Our work coupling the surface and groundwater components of LHM will lead to fully coupled models for parts of NE and IA (data available through the USDA-ARS and this project). Additional LHM development will proceed, related to irrigation technology simulations. Finally, initial efforts to directly couple the SALUS vegetated outputs to LHM will complete in Yr 3, positioning us for a full large scale coupling in Yr 4 of the project. Our model application endeavors in Yr 3 will focus on larger-scale simulations of the entire US corn belt region, driven by dynamic vegetation from SALUS. These efforts will position us to run specific scenarios related to irrigation technology, cropping systems, and management across the Corn Belt in Yr 4. Hydrology team (KGS) We will continue to refine the new water-balance approach, first developed in Yr 1 of this project. We will also continue to refine and extend the new approach for using radar precipitation data, in conjunction with water-level and water-use data, to assess the impact of climatic stresses on groundwater resources. We will continue research that addresses the need for reliable pumping data, a major limitation of the water-balance approach. Based on the results of work completed in Yr 2, we will continue development of a new approach to estimate groundwater pumping from climatic indices. This effort will allow the water-balance approach to be applied to areas with limited groundwater pumping data. The KGS team will also continue work on new methods for assessing the impact of pumping reductions on drought resiliency and interpreting water-level data from a network of specially constructed and continuously monitored observation wells in Kansas. Economics team (MSU) We will continue to estimate the LEPA adoption model, going beyond the rational decision framework. Ultimately the estimated behavioral economic model will better represent the actual adoption behavior. Based on estimation results, we will conduct counterfactual analysis of policy interventions, especially when the farming sector faces more constraints in water availability. Economics team (UNL) We will continue to work toward determining the impact of crop insurance on water use and the effect of CRP set-asides on aquifer recharge. We hope to have the SALUS-based dynamic irrigation and trading model developed by the end of 2017, as well as the comparative analysis of metered and self-reported pumping records. Climate team (MSU) We plan to implement the process-based SALUS model to simulate the movement of N at the field level, particularly losses due to runoff and nitrate leaching, in order to better understand the effects of precipitation variability on field-level N loss. Simulations will be conducted with historical precipitation series, downscaled climate model output, and stochastically simulated time series as inputs. Use of historical data will allow calibration/validation of SALUS, while projected time series will permit better understanding of N movement under climate change scenarios. Objective 4. Extension and Decision Support System Precison Ag-Crop Modeling team (MSU) The field scale yield stability map will serve as a baseline to run the SALUS model at high spatial resolution (30 m2) to expand research questions under different climate and management scenarios. This will generate new information on the impact of soil, weather and management on yield and the environment. Best management scenarios will be implemented with SALUS to evaluate the impact of such practices also on economic return for the farmers. We will continue to show and train farmers, crop consultants, extension agents on how to use i-SALUS Web-based DSS. i-SALUS will be tested against field observations shared by the farmers. Climate team (Dartmouth) We expect to complete our analysis of historical trends (1900-2015) in GHCN-Daily temperature and precipitation records in Yr 3, with a focus on characterizing the spatial and temporal dynamics of the warming hole. We will also complete our evaluation of trends in mean and extreme agricultural climate metrics, and start exploring projected changes in agricultural climate extremes from the CMIP5 archive. We feel that results from our analyses of observations will provide insight on our approach to regional climate modeling, so we have decided to focus on the regional climate modeling aspects of our work in Yr 3. Objective 5. Provide Integrated Education Methods Education team (MSU) In the coming year, the Education team will make a presentation at the annual meeting of the MI Science Teachers Association (Title: Water and Carbon Footprints of Food-NGSS Style) and will also offer a teacher professional development workshop in the summer (2017), improved by the feedback received from the focus group who attended the 2016 workshop. Pre-service teachers enrolled in two undergraduate science courses at MSU will participate in projects focused on individual and societal decision-making on the environmental impacts of agriculture.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? IMPACT The pressure to increase food production often leads to over-fertilization, which, in turn, can result in fertilizer loss by surface water run-off, leaching to groundwater, and greenhouse gas emission, all of which have negative environmental impacts. Farmers already recognize that any fertilizer that isn't taken up by roots can be lost, thereby lowering profits. However, it is no simple task to match the exact amount of fertilizer required by crops to a field where soil type, topography, and water flow characteristics vary. In addition, rainfall patterns during the growing season further complicate the availability of nutrients supplied to crops. The PreCiSA project develops and tests digital agricultural technologies so farmers can better manage water and nutrients. The project team includes agricultural scientists, hydrologists, climatologists, economists and educators working together to help agricultural producers in the US corn belt (Midwestern and High Plains states) become more profitable and better stewards of the environment. To reach these complex goals, it is imperative to understand why crop growth varies within a given field, and from one year to the next. These are the core objectives of the PreCiSA project. New, integrated approaches developed in this project rely on the use of drones and other remotely sensed data, innovative soil sensors, and crop simulation models to monitor crop growth and spatial variation. Our approach identifies areas where agricultural inputs can be varied to match the specific needs of a crop-no more, no less. In the second year of the project, we found that roughly 75 Million acres of Midwestern corn and soybeans fields are negatively impacted by variability. This analysis was completed at the field scale with satellite data and new algorithms that we developed to quantify nitrogen fertilizer losses. These results showed that over-fertilization occurs on approximately 20 Million acres of farmers' fields, an annual economic cost of about $500 Million to farmers and the release of 1.3 Million tons of Nitrogen to the environment. In response to this variability, modeling software was developed to allow farmers to view the effects of various nitrogen and water management strategies to better understand risks associated with those choices and their potential impact. This approach is possible because models now demonstrate significant predictive skill while simulating crop production systems under different soil, climate, genetics and management conditions. This project has advanced fundamental knowledge on the role of digital agriculture and big-data to optimize agricultural inputs in the US. Objective 1. Synthesize crop yield data & crop model ensembles The PreCiSA team continues to make significant progress synthesizing new and existing data collected across scales (sub-field, farm and region). Work continued on crop model validation, multi-model ensemble runs, and coupling of landscape hydrology simulations with economic models and analysis. We quantified the environmental impact and economic cost of nitrogen fertilizer application across 10 states in the Midwest at field scale, approximately 60% of all US corn and soybean fields. Objective 2. Field Experimentation Ground truth data was collected on both plants and soil from multiple fields to evaluate the capability of different remote sensing platforms (UAV, aircraft and satellite) to detect crop N and water levels. This included measurements of total N content, crop phenology, biomass, kernel number and weight, yield and soil moisture. We completed another field study with 28 time-lapse cameras to capture detailed data on the impact of soil water, soil temperature, and planting conditions on plant emergence and yield. We continued to expand our database of remote sensing imagery to include more than 20,000 images, an area of nearly 50,000 acres. Objective 3. Integrated Systems Modeling Patterns of extreme hydrologic events (both high and low flow) across the Continental US were quantified and analyzed with the complete USGS streamflow dataset. This shows that the incidence of extreme floods and droughts are increasing in the study area. The MSU Hydrology team lead by Hyndman began development of an algorithm to classify annual irrigation maps over the Republican River Basin, a sub-region of the High Plains, using satellite remote sensing (Landsat 5, 7 and 8 data at 30m resolution) and Google Earth Engine data. The Hydrology team led by Butler (KGS) developed a theoretically sound approach that involves direct calculation of net aquifer inflow without having to invoke potentially inappropriate assumptions. This approach allows us to gain insight into an aquifer's water budget that were previously difficult, if not impossible, to obtain. The method was tailored for aquifers that support irrigated agriculture, so the approach should be valuable far beyond the High Plains aquifer. A major limitation of this approach is its need for reliable data on groundwater pumping, which may not be available. We addressed this through an evaluation of the dependence of the approach on limited pumping data and through the development of a new method to estimate groundwater pumping from climatic indices. The Climate team led by Andresen (MSU) began work on the construction of historical climatic data series for the Midwest that will be applied in a number of crop, management, hydrologic, and socioeconomic models. The climate team led by Winter (Dartmouth) has focused on exploring trends and drivers of agricultural climate in the Central US. We assessed potential causes of increased precipitation and decreased temperatures over the 20th century in the Midwest with a regional climate model. The Economics team led by Zhao (MSU) developed a structural estimation model that uses data from Kansas to estimate farmer incentives to adopt LEPA. Preliminary results indicate that farmers are reluctant to adopt LEPA: the implied adoption cost in rational economic decision models far exceeds the actual cost of LEPA equipment. Our results show that LEPA's rebound effect can be addressed by reducing water rights. A 10% reduction of water rights can reduce LEPA's rebound effect by 13.5%, and reduce the average water extraction by 5-6%. Adoption of LEPA does not lead farmers to irrigate more land, and the remaining three quarters of LEPA's rebound effect is attributable to more intensive irrigation. The Economics team led by Brozovic (UNL) has begun to evaluate historical water use and crop yield data from the Nebraska Republican River Basin to examine the impact of crop insurance on water use. Data is being assembled and analyses will be completed to determine whether allocation limits have had any impact on irrigation behavior and crop yields. Our initial estimates show that county-level CRP variables do a poor job of explaining changes in the depth to groundwater. Objective 4. Extension and Decision Support System We have continued to develop i-SALUS, a farmer-friendly, web-based agronomic decision support system (DSS), designed to help farmers optimize fertilizer management by making it possible to view expected outcomes of different management options. Objective 5. Provide Integrated Education Methods The Education team led by Rice and Parker (MSU) developed materials for a three-week unit on water issues that were included in an undergraduate science course that 75 future teachers completed in 2016. In addition, a curriculum was designed for the professional development of middle and high school science teachers to support their use of data in analyzing costs and benefits of food production. Teachers used data from PreCiSA project scientists, synthesized information to develop solutions to over-fertilization as related to water quality, and developed instructional materials for their own classrooms (this will reach approx.1800 students).

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2017 Citation: R.E. Alter, H.C. Douglas, J.M. Winter, E.A.B. Eltahir: Regional climate change attributed to agricultural intensification in the central US. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2017 Citation: J.M. Winter, J.R. Lopez, A.C. Ruane, C. Young, C. Rosenzweig, B.R. Scanlon: Integrating Water Resource Scarcity into Future Agricultural Assessments. Anthropocene
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2017 Citation: Li, Haoyang and Jinhua Zhao, 2016, Rebound Effects of New Irrigation Technologies: The Role of Water Rights, American Journal of Agricultural Economics
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: Rebound Effects of New Irrigation Technologies: The Role of Water Rights, presented by Haoyang Li at the annual meeting of Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, August 1, 2016, Boston, MA
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change: the Role of Technologies and Institutions, presented by Jinhua Zhao at the China-US Symposium on Environmental Science and Pollution Control, October 26  29, 2016, Yixing, China
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2017 Citation: Butler, J.J., Jr., D.O. Whittemore, B.B. Wilson, and G.C. Bohling, A new approach for assessing the future of aquifers supporting irrigated agriculture, Geophys. Res. Lett., v. 43, no. 5, pp. 2004-2010, doi: 10.1002/2016GL067879, 2016
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: Butler, J.J., Jr., D.O. Whittemore, and B.B. Wilson, Prospects for extending the lifetime of the High Plains aquifer  The role of groundwater flow, 60th Annual Meeting of the Southwest Kansas Irrigation Association, Ulysses, KS, Feb. 9, 2016  invited oral presentation
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: Butler, J.J., Jr., D.O. Whittemore, and B.B. Wilson, Prospects for extending the lifetime of the High Plains aquifer, Kansas Farm Bureau 9th District Meeting and Legislative Update, Tribune, KS, April 7, 2016  invited oral presentation.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: Butler, J.J., Jr., KGS research on the High Plains aquifer, presentation to the Kansas Water Authority, Oakley, KS, May 17, 2016  invited oral presentation.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: Butler, J.J., Jr., Subsurface characterization over a range of temporal and spatial scales, 2016 CUAHSI Biennial Symposium, Shepherdstown, WV, July 26, 2016  invited oral presentation
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: Butler, J.J., Jr., D.O. Whittemore, and B. B. Wilson, Sustainability of aquifers supporting irrigated agriculture: A case study of the High Plains aquifer in Kansas, OECD-WFI Virtual Water in Agriculture Products: Quantification, Limitations, and Trade Policy Workshop, Lincoln, NE, Sept. 16, 2016  invited oral presentation
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: Butler, J.J., Jr., D.O. Whittemore, and B. B. Wilson, The High Plains aquifer in Kansas: Current conditions and future prospects, Pardee Keynote Session  The High Plains Aquifer: Can It be Managed for Today and the Future?, 2016 Geological Society of America Annual Meeting, Denver, CO, Sept. 27, 2016  invited oral presentation  abstract at gsa.confex.com/gsa/2016AM/webprogram/ Paper281471.html.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: Butler, J.J., Jr., Assessing the sustainability of aquifers supporting irrigated agriculture: A case study of the High Plains aquifer in Kansas, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Michigan State University, Sept. 30, 2016  invited oral presentation.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: Butler, J.J., Jr., Assessing the sustainability of aquifers supporting irrigated agriculture, Earth Resources Engineering Symposium on Groundwater Depletion, National Academy of Engineering, Washington, D.C., Oct. 11, 2016  invited oral presentation  video at blog.uvm.edu/webwizrd-nae/presentations/.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: Butler, J.J., Jr., D.O. Whittemore, and B. B. Wilson, The High Plains aquifer: A Kansas perspective, American Geosciences Institute Critical Issues Forum  Addressing Changes in Regional Groundwater Resources: Lessons from the High Plains Aquifer, Golden, CO, Oct. 27, 2016  invited oral presentation
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: Butler, J.J., Jr., D.O. Whittemore, and B.B. Wilson, Assessing prospects for sustainability in the High Plains aquifer in southwest Kansas, 2016 Governor's Conference on the Future of Water in Kansas, Manhattan, KS, Nov. 15, 2016
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: Butler, J.J., Jr., D.O. Whittemore, B.B. Wilson, and S. Knobbe, Monitoring the hydrologic impacts of the Sheridan 6 Local Enhanced Management Area, 2016 Governor's Conference on the Future of Water in Kansas, Manhattan, KS, Nov. 15, 2016  invited oral presentation  www.kwo.org/Projects/2016_Govs_ Conf/PowerPoints/Day%202/Butler_LEMA.pdf.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: Butler, J.J., Jr., G.C. Bohling, D.O. Whittemore, and B.B. Wilson, A sustainability index for assessment and management of aquifers supporting irrigated agriculture, Abstract H54B-05 presented at 2016 Fall Meeting, American Geophysical Union, San Francisco, Dec. 16, 2016
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2017 Citation: Dold, C., B�y�kcangaz, H., Rondinelli, W., Prueger, J., Sauer, T., Hatfield, J., 2017. Long-term carbon uptake of agro-ecosystems in the Midwest. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 232, 128-140
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2017 Citation: Dold, C., Hatfield, J.L., Prueger, J.H., Sauer, T.J., B�y�kcangaz, H., and Rondinelli, W., 2017. Long-term application of the Crop Water Stress Index in Midwest agro-ecosystems (submitted to Agronomy Journal)
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2017 Citation: Dold, C., Hatfield, J.L., Prueger, J.H., and Wacha, K., 2017. Long-term carbon flux footprint analysis in a Midwestern US corn-soybean rotation (submitted to Agriculture and Forest Meteorology)
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Smidt, S. J., Haacker, E. M. K., Kendall, A. D., Deines, J. M., Pei, L., Cotterman, K. A., & Hyndman, D. W. (2016). Complex water management in modern agriculture: Trends in the water energy-food nexus over the High Plains Aquifer. Agricultural Water Management, 566567, 9881001. http://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.004
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2017 Citation: Luscz, E.C., Kendall, A.D., and D.W. Hyndman, A spatially explicit statistical model to quantify nutrient sources, pathways, and delivery at the regional scale, Biogeochemistry: in review
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2017 Citation: Cotterman, K.A., Kendall, A.D., Basso, B., and D.W. Hyndman, Groundwater Depletion and Climate Change: Crop Production Declines over the Ogallala Aquifer, Climatic Change: in review
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: Deines, J.M., Kendall, A.D. and D.W. Hyndman, (2016), Multi-year mapping of irrigated croplands over the US High Plains Aquifer using satellite data, AGU Fall meeting, San Francisco, CA, USA, December 12 - 16
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: Liu, X., Kendall, A.D., and D.W. Hyndman, (2016), Hydrologic Response to Irrigation across the Republican River Basin of the High Plains Aquifer, AGU Fall meeting, San Francisco, CA, USA, December 12 - 16
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: Rapp, J.R., Deines, J.M, Kendall, A.D., and D.W. Hyndman, (2016), Assessing inaccuracies in remotely sensed irrigation maps across the High Plains Aquifer, AGU Fall meeting, San Francisco, CA, USA, December 12 - 16
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: Hamlin, Q.F., Kendall, A.D., Martin, S.L., Whitenack, H.D., and D.W. Hyndman, (2016), Spatially-explicit modelling of nutrient loading to the landscape in the Great Lakes Basin, AGU Fall meeting, San Francisco, CA, USA, December 12 - 16
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: Kendall, A.D. and D.W. Hyndman, (2016), Quantifying the Impacts of Irrigation Technology Adoption on Water Resources in the High Plains Aquifer, USA, Toward Sustainable Groundwater in Agriculture, Burlingame CA June 28-30
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: Hyndman, D.W., Kendall, A.D., Basso, B., Cotterman, K.A., Haacker, E.M.K., Pei, L., and S.J Smidt. (2016), Quantifying the Impact of Human Activities on Water Sustainability and Crop Yields Across the High Plains Aquifer Using Process-Based Models, Toward Sustainable Groundwater in Agriculture, Burlingame CA June 28-30
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: Kendall, A.D., Cotterman, K., and D.W. Hyndman, (2016), Quantifying the Impacts of Irrigation Technology Adoption on Water Resources in the High Plains Aquifer, USA, EGU Annual Meeting, Vienna, April 18-22
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: Kendall, A.D. and D.W. Hyndman (Invited, 2016),Water Sustainability and the Coupled Land Atmosphere and Socioeconomic Systems of the High Plains Aquifer, University of Arizona Department of Atmospheric and Hydrologic Sciences Seminar, April 6
  • Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Young, R.K. and Brozovic, N., 2016, Innovations in groundwater management: Smart markets for transferable groundwater extraction rights, Technology and Innovation, v. 17, 219-226, DOI: 10.3727/194982416X14520374943220.
  • Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Kuwayama, Y., Young. R.K., and Brozovic, N., 2016, Groundwater scarcity: Management approaches and recent innovations, in J. Ziolkowska and J. Peterson (eds.), Competition for Water Resources: Experiences and Management Approaches in the U.S. and Europe, Elsevier, p. 332-348.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: Rice, J. and Markham L. Water Footprints: Connecting pre-service teachers' science learning to informed decision-making. Manuscript in preparation for submission to the Journal of Contemporary Water Research and Education.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: Parker, J. and Rice, J. Human impacts on the environment explored through the three dimensions of NGSS: A model for teacher professional development. Manuscript in preparation for submission to the Journal of Science Teacher Education
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: Parker, J. and Rice, J. Using problem-based learning as a tool for informed decision-making on water-related agricultural issues: Des Moines, Iowa versus upstream farmers. Manuscript in preparation for submission to The Journal of Environmental Education
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Asseng, S., Cammarano D., Basso B. Chung, U., Alderman P.D., Sonder, K., Reynolds, M. Lobell D.B. 2016. Hot spots of wheat yield decline with rising temperatures. Global Change Biology (2016), doi: 10.1111/gcb.13530
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2017 Citation: Liu L., Basso, B. 2017. Spatial Evaluation of switchgrass productivity under historical and future climate scenarios in Michigan. Global Change Biology-Bioenergy doi: 10.1111/gcbb.12417
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Yang, W., D. W. Hyndman, J. A. Winkler, A. Vi�a, J. M. Deines, F. Lupi, L. Luo, Y. Li, B. Basso, C. Zheng, D. Ma, S. Li, X. Liu, H. Zheng, G. Cao, Q. Meng, Z. Ouyang and J. Liu. 2016. Urban Water Sustainability: Framework and Application. Ecology and Society. 21(4):4. http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/ES-08685-210404
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Liu B, Asseng S, Muller C, Ewert F, Elliott J, Lobell DB, Martre P, Ruane AC, Wallach D, Jones JW, Rosenzweig C, Aggarwal PK, Alderman PD, Anothai J, Basso B, Biernath C, Cammarano D, Challinor A, Deryng D, Sanctis GD, Doltra J, Fereres E, Folberth C, Garcia-Vila M, Gayler S, Hoogenboom G, Hunt LA, Izaurralde RC, Jabloun M, Jones CD, Kersebaum KC, Kimball BA, Koehler A-K, Kumar SN, Nendel C, Oleary G, Olesen JE, Ottman MJ, Palosuo T, Prasad PVV, Priesack E, Pugh TAM, Reynolds M, Rezaei EE, Rotter RP, Schmid E, Semenov MA, Shcherbak I, Stehfest E, Stockle CO, Stratonovitch P, Streck T, Supit I, Tao F, Thorburn P, Waha K, Wall GW, Wang E, White JW, Wolf J, Zhao Z, Zhu Y (2016) Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate3115.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Smidt S J., Haacker E M.K., Kendall A.D., Deines J D., Pei L., Cotterman K.A., Li H., Liu X., Basso, B., Hyndman D.W. 2016. Complex water management in modern agriculture: Trends in the water-energy-food nexus over the High Plains Aquifer. Science of The Total Environment, 566, 988-1001
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Cammarano D, R�tter RP, Asseng S, Ewert F, Wallach D, Martre P, Hatfield JL, Jones JW, Rosenzweig C, Ruane AC, Boote KJ, Thorburn PJ, Kersebaum KC, Aggarwal PK, Angulo C, Basso B, Bertuzzi P, Biernath C, Brisson N, Challinor AJ, Doltra J, Gayler S, Goldberg R, Heng L, Hooker JE, Hunt LA, Ingwersen J, Izaurralde RC, M�ller C, Kumar SN, Nendel C, OLeary G, Olesen JE, Osborne TM, Priesack E, Ripoche D, Steduto P, St�ckle CO, Stratonovitch P, Streck T, Supit I, Tao F, Travasso M, Waha K, White JW, Wolf J (2016) Uncertainty of wheat water use: Simulated patterns and sensitivity to temperature and CO2. Field Crops Research, 198: 80-92. doi:10.1016/j.fcr.2016.08.015.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Albarenque, SM., B. Basso, OP Caviglia, RJM Melchiori. 2016. Spatio-Temporal Nitrogen Fertilizer Response in Maize: Field Study and Modeling Approach. 2016. Agronomy Journal Vol. 108, Issue 5 1-13
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Maiorano, A, Martre P, Asseng S, Ewert F, M�ller C, R�tter RP, Ruane AC, Semenov MA, Wallach D, Wang E, Alderman PD, Kassie BT, Biernath C, Basso B, Camarrano D, Challinor AJ, Doltra J, Dumont B, Eyshi Rezaei E, Gayler S, Kersebaum KC, Kimball BA, Koehler AK, Liu B, OLeary GJ, Olesen JE, Ottman MJ, Priesack E, Reynolds MP, Stratonovitch P, Streck T, Thorburn PJ, Waha K, Wall GW, White JW, Zhao Z, Zhu Y (2016) Crop model improvement reduces the uncertainty of the response to temperature of multi-model ensembles. Field Crops Research, doi:10.1016/j.fcr.2016.05.001.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Jones, JW., JM Antle, B Basso, KJ Boote, RT Conant, I Foster, HCJ Godfray, Mario Herrerog, Richard E. Howitth, Sander Jansseni, Brian A. Keating, Rafael Munoz-Carpena, Cheryl H. Porter, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Tim R. Wheeler. 2016. Brief history of agricultural systems modeling. Agricultural Systems http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2016.05.014
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: S�ndor, R., F Ehrhardt, B Basso, G Bellocchi, A Bhatia, L Brilli, et al., 2016. C and N models Intercomparisonbenchmark and ensemble model estimates for grassland production. Advances in Animal Biosciences 7 (3), 245-247
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Hamilton, S K; Hussain, M Z; Bhardwaj, A K; Basso, B; Robertson, G P. 2015. Comparative water use by maize, perennial crops, restored prairie, and poplar trees in the US Midwest. Environmental Research Letters, Volume 10, Number 6, June 2015, pp. 64015-64022(8)
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: De Rosa, Daniele; Rowlings, David W.; Biala, Johannes; Basso, B. Grace. PR. 2016. Effect of organic and mineral N fertilizers on N2O emissions from an intensive vegetable rotation. Biology and Fertility of Soils. Volume: 52 Issue: 6 Pages: 895-908
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: van Bussel, L., Ewert F, Zhao G, Hoffmann H, Enders A, Wallach D, Asseng S,. Baigorria G,A, Basso B., Biernath C., Cammarano D., Chryssanthacopoulos D., Constantin J, Elliott J, Glotter M., Heinlein F, Kersebaum, K.C., Klein, C, Nendel C, Priesack E., Raynal H, Romero C.C., R�tter R.P., Specka X., and Tao F. 2016. Spatial sampling of weather data for regional crop yield simulations. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 220, 101-115
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Stellacci, AM., Castrignan� A., Troccoli A., Basso B., Buttafuoco G. 2016. Selecting optimal hyperspectral bands to discriminate nitrogen status in durum wheat: a comparison of statistical approaches. Environmental monitoring and assessment 188, 3, 1-15
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Ruane, A.C., Hudson N I., Asseng, S., Camarrano D., Ewert F., Martre P., Boote, K.J. P.J. Thorburn, P, P.K. Aggarwal, C. Angulo, B. Basso, P., .Bertuzzi, C. Biernath , N. Brisson, A. J. Challinor, J. Doltra, S.Gayler, R.Goldberg, R.F. Grant, L. Heng, J. Hooker, L. A. Hunt, J. Ingwersen, R. C. Izaurralde, K.C. Kersebaum, C. Stoph, S.N. Kumar, C. Nendel, G. Oleary, J.E. Olesen, T. M. Osborne, T. Palosuo, E. Priesack, D. Ripoche, M.A. Semenov, I. Shcherbak, P. Steduto, C. O. Stockle, Pierre Stratonovitch, T. Streck, I. Supit, F. Tao, M. Travasso, K. Waha, J. W. White, J.Wolf. 2016. Multi-wheat-model ensemble responses to interannual climate variability. Environmental Modelling & Software 81, 86 101
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: NGSS Human Impacts  Water, energy, food and climate change at the Michigan Science Teachers Association, March 4, 2016, Lansing MI
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: Prediction of Evapotranspiration and Yields of Maize: An Inter-Comparison Among 29 Maize Models at the American Society of Agronomy Annual meeting, Nov. 6-9, 2016 Phoenix, AZ
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: Past Experience Supports Future Choices for Cropping Systems Management: The Italian Long-Term Agro-Ecosystem Experiments (LTAE) through the IC-FAR Project and the Maggnet International Network at the American Society of Agronomy Annual meeting, Nov. 6-9, 2016 Phoenix, AZ
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: Analysis of Long-Term Crop Water Use Efficiency Under Different Management Practices in the Upper Midwest at the American Society of Agronomy Annual meeting, Nov. 6-9, 2016 Phoenix, AZ
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: Prediction of Evapotranspiration and Yields of Maize: An Inter-Comparison Among 29 Maize Models at the American Society of Agronomy Annual meeting, Nov. 6-9, 2016 Phoenix, AZ
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: N management in corn using remote sensing at the Michigan Corn Marketing Program. Lansing, MI Jan 4, 2016
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: Assessing spatial and temporal variability of wheat yield and N uptake using UAV and crop modeling at the MI Wheat program. Jan, 12, 2016
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: Spatial variability of soybeans using remote sensing at the Michigan Soybean Promotion Committee. Lansing, MI Sept 4, 2016
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: Simulation of soil processes using ensemble crop models at the VI Annual Meeting on Agricultural Modeling Intercomparison and Improvements, June 30, 2016. Montpelier, France
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: Crop Yield Forecasting Systems at the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Rome, Italy July 1, 2016
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: Designing Variable Rate N Strategy in Cropping Systems, Keynote Speaker at the 19th International Nitrogen Workshop, June 27-29, 2016 Skara, Sweden
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: Integrating Crop models with Remote Sensing to enhance the efficiency of agricultural systems at CiBO Technologies, May 17, 2016, Cambridge, MA
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: Assessing and modeling sustainability of agricultural systems at the Generation IM, London, UK December 16, 2016
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: Applications of UAVs in row-crop agriculture: advantages and limitations at the AGU Fall mtg., San Francisco, CA, USA, Dec. 12, 2016
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP)at the AGU Fall mtg., San Francisco, CA, USA, Dec. 13, 2016


Progress 03/01/15 to 02/29/16

Outputs
Target Audience:The target audience for the results of this research is broad and includes agricultural scientists, extension specialists, agricultural producers, and policy makers in agriculture and natural resource management. We also intend to reach both graduate and undergraduate students through direct work during the research phase of the project as well as students in grades K-12 by developing instructional materials based on research results and training teachers in their use. Private sector entities included in the target audience include UAV companies and precision agricultural technology companies. The target audience was reached in the following ways in Year 1: Agricultural and natural resource scientists were reached through presentations at numerous professional meetings as demonstrated by the list of presentations shown in the Products section of REEport. These organizations include: American Society of Agonomy (ASA), Soil and Crop Science Society of America (SSSA), Geological Society of America (GSA), American Geophysical Union (AGU), the American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers (ASABE), Modelling European Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security (MACSUR), and the Climate-Smart Ag. Global Science Conference. Extension Agents were reached through presentations at professional national agronomy meetings such as the American Society of Agronomy (ASA) and Soil Science Society of America (SSSA). Agricultural producers were reached through presentations made at annual meetings of the Michigan Corn Marketing Program, the Michigan Wheat Growers and the Michigan Soybean Promotion Committee. Policy makers were reached through presentations at numerous conferences and meetings including: Governor's Conf. on the Future of Water in Kansas, 36th Annual Oklahoma Governor's Water Conf. and Research Symposium, Kansas Geo. Survey Advisory Council. Graduate and undergraduate level students are participating directly on the project for their thesis or dissertation research. Students are listed by name under the Training section of the REEport. Efforts to reach students in grades K-12 are in the planning stage with development of materials for professional developments workshops for teachers. No students in grades K-12 have been reached yet by this project. UAV companies and Precision agricultural technology companies have not yet been reached with the results of our research. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Training Training is ongoing in workshops, conferences and at the collegiate level. Both undergraduates and graduate students are working directly on the project for their thesis or dissertation. Individuals directly being trained within the scope of this project are listed in Table 1. Table 1. Personnel trained in Year 1 of the PreCiSA project Group/Lab First name Last Name Institution Position Milestone # Hyndman Anthony Kendall MSU Postdoc 3.3 Hyndman Jill Deines MSU PhD candidate 3.3 Hyndman Kayla Cotterman MSU MS candidate 3.3 Hyndman Austin Parish MSU MS candidate 3.3 Hyndman Sam Smidt MSU PhD candidate 3.3 Hyndman Erin Haacker MSU PhD candidate 3.3 Hyndman Xiao Liu MSU MS candidate 3.3 Hyndman Alex Kuhl MSU PhD candidate 3.3 Hyndman Henry Whitenack MSU Undergraduate assistant 3.3 Hyndman Quercus Hamlin MSU Undergraduate assistant 3.3 Hyndman Jeremy Rapp MSU Undergraduate assistant 3.3 Hyndman Peter Miller MSU Undergraduate assistant 3.3 Hyndman Katherine Smack MSU Undergraduate assistant 3.3 Hyndman Jacob Whitbeck MSU Undergraduate assistant 3.3 Parker, Rice Samantha Farmer MSU Undergraduate assistant 5 Parker, Rice Sarah Baker MSU Undergraduate assistant 5 Basso Benjamin Dumont MSU Postdoc 1.2 Basso Greg Putman MSU Undergraduate assistant 2 Basso Lin Liu MSU Graduate student 1,2 Basso Anne Stanton MSU Research technician 1,2,3 Basso Rich Price MSU Research technician 1,2,3 Basso Yi Shi MSU GIS analyst 1,2 How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?In addition to publications in peer-reviewed academic journals listed in the Products section of this report, numerous presentations were made at conventions, workshops and conferences. Oral presentations: Presentation: Whittemore, D.O., J.J. Butler, Jr., and B.B. Wilson, Prediction of water-level changes and water use in the High Plains aquifer from radar precipitation, Abstract H14B-04 presented at 2015 Fall Meeting, American Geophysical Union, San Francisco, Dec. 14, 2015. Presentation: J.M. Winter, A.C. Ruane, and C. Rosenzweig: AgMIP Water: Integrating Water Scarcity into Future Agricultural Assessments. American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers 1st Climate Change Symposium, Chicago, USA, May 5, 2015. Session Convener: J.M. Winter, B. Basso, C. Rosenzweig: Improving the Simulation of Climate Impacts on Agriculture: AgMIP and Related Research. American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, San Francisco, USA, Dec 14, 2015. Presentation: Hyndman, D.W., Kendall, A.D., Smidt, S.J., Deines, J., Liu, X., Cotterman, K., and E.M.K. Haacker, Evaluating Water Sustainability across the High Plains Aquifer using Remote Sensing and Process-Based Hydrology Models (Invited), AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA, USA, December 14-18 Presentation: Basso, B., Rotter, R. et al., 2015. Using a Large Ensemble of Crop Models to Simulate the Climate Sensitivity of Wheat Yields Across a European Transect. Synergy in Science: Partnering for solutions. ASA, CSSA & SSSA International Annual Meetings, November 15-18 Minneapolis, MN, USA. Presentation: Basso, B., Pirttioja, N et al., 2015. Wheat yield sensitivity to climate change across a European transect for a large ensemble of crop models. Climate-Smart Agriculture, Global Science Conference, March 16-18, 2015 Le Corum, Montpellier, France. Presentation: Basso, B., Pirttioja, N et al., 2015. A crop model ensemble analysis of wheat yield sensitivity to changes in temperature and precipitation across a European transect. MACSUR Conference 2015, Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food. University of Reading, Reading, U.K. Presentation: Basso, B., Cammarano, D. et al., 2015. Multi-Model Intercomparison of Wheat Water Use Patterns and Sensitivity to Temperature and CO2. Grand Challenges, Great Solutions. ASA, CSSA & SSSA International Annual Meetings. Nov. 2-5, Long Beach, California, USA Presentation: Basso, B. Next Generation Precision Agriculture. 22 May IFE Distinguished Visitor Lecture, Queensland University of Technologies, Brisbane, Australia Presentation: Basso, B. et al., 2015AgMIP Soil: Modeling the Impact of Soil Processes and Crop Rotations Effects on Yield. Synergy in Science: Partnering for solutions. ASA, CSSA & SSSA International Annual Meetings, November 15-18 Minneapolis, MN, USA. Presentation: Basso, B. et al., Modeling the Impact of Climate Change and Management on Corn Yield, Soil Carbon and Nitrate Leaching in Midwest US Synergy in Science: Partnering for solutions. ASA, CSSA & SSSA International Annual Meetings, November 15-18 Minneapolis, MN, USA. Presentation: Basso, B. and B.Dumont. 2015. A Tactical Decision Support System to Optimise Nitrogen Management. Synergy in Science: Partnering for solutions. ASA, CSSA & SSSA International Annual Meetings, November 15-18 Minneapolis, MN, USA. Presentation: Basso, B. 2015. Modeling soil processes for adapting agricultural systems to climate variability and change. (Invited) ASABE meeting, Chicago, May 3-4 2015. Presentation: Brozovic, N. and T. Foster, T. 2015. Windows of opportunity for groundwater management. American Geophysical Union annual conference, San Francisco, December 2015. Poster presentations: Poster: Butler, J.J., Jr., D.O. Whittemore, and B.B. Wilson, A new approach for assessing aquifer sustainability and the impact of proposed management actions, Abstract H21B-1366 presented at 2015 Fall Meeting, American Geophysical Union, San Francisco, Dec. 15, 2015. Poster: Dahl, T., Kendall, A.D., and D.W. Hyndman, Comparing Sediment Yield Predictions from Different Hydrologic Modeling Schemes, AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA, USA, December 14-18 Poster: Pei, L., Moore, N., Zhong, S., Kendall, A.D., and D.W. Hyndman, How does irrigation modulate regional climate under wet and dry conditions? AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA, USA, December 14-18 Poster: Smidt, S.J., Haacker, E.K., Deines, J.M., Pei, L., Cotterman, K.A., Li, H., Liu, X., Kendall, A.D., and D.W. Hyndman, Modern challenges to agricultural water management: Physical, agricultural, and socioeconomic implications on the High Plains Aquifer. Geological Society of America Annual Meeting, Baltimore, MD, USA, November 1-4 Poster: Haacker, E.M., Smidt., S.J., Kendall, A.D., Basso, B., and D.W. Hyndman, Effects of the Conservation Reserve Program on Hydrologic Processes in the Southern High Plains, AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA, USA, December 14-18 Poster: Smidt, S.J., Haacker, E.M.K., Kendall, A.D., and D.W. Hyndman, Simulating Groundwater Recharge Across the Southern High Plains, AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA, USA, December 14-18 Poster: Deines, J., Hyndman, D.W., and A.D. Kendall, Quantifying the Impact of a Transboundary Streamflow Agreement on Groundwater Resources in the US High Plains Aquifer, AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA, USA, December 14-18 Poster: Cotterman, K.A., Kendall, A.D., Basso, B., and D.W. Hyndman, Climate Change Impacts of Irrigation on the Central High Plains, AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA, USA, December 14-18 Presentations to extension agents and agricultural producers: Presentation: Basso, B. What can remote sensing tell us about N and water use efficiency? Michigan Corn Marketing Program, Dewitt MI January 6, 2016 Presentation: Basso, B. The role of UAV in wheat management. Michigan Wheat Growers Association East Lansing, MI January 11, 2016 Presentation: Basso, B. Integrating remote sensing and modeling to understand spatial and temporal variability of crop yields Michigan Soybean Promotion Committee East Lansing, MI January 22, 2016 Presentations to policy makers in agriculture and natural resource management: Presentation: Butler, J.J., Jr., D.O. Whittemore, and B.B. Wilson, Assessing the future of the High Plains aquifer, (Invited) 36th Annual Oklahoma Governor's Water Conference and Research Symposium, Norman, OK, Dec. 2, 2015 Presentation video at http://water.okstate.edu/activities/symposium/2015-symposium/2015-symposium. Presentation: Butler, J.J., Jr., D.O. Whittemore, and B.B. Wilson, Assessing prospects for sustainability in the High Plains aquifer in Kansas, Governor's Conference on the Future of Water in Kansas, Manhattan, KS Nov. 19, 2015. Presentation: Whittemore, D.O., J.J. Butler, Jr., B.B. Wilson, and J. Woods, Using radar precipitation to estimate water-level changes and water use in the High Plains aquifer Governor's Conference on the Future of Water in Kansas, Manhattan, KS, Nov. 19, 2015. Presentation: Butler, J.J., Jr., D.O. Whittemore, and B.B. Wilson, Prospects for extending the lifetime of the High Plains aquifer - the role of groundwater flow, (invited) Kansas Water Congress summer meeting, Lawrence, KS, August 6, 2015. Presentation: Butler, J.J., Jr., KGS research on the High Plains aquifer, presentation to the Kansas Geological Survey Advisory Council, Lawrence, KS, July 31, 2015. Magazine articles online: Magazine article: Cameron Rudolph, Technology Driven AgBioResearch: Food, Energy, Environment. Michigan State University November 9, 2015 agbioresearch.msu.edu Magazine article: Cameron Rudolph, In motion: Improving water quality through better land management AgBioResearch: Food, Energy, Environment. Michigan State University July 24, 2015 agbioresearch.msu.edu Additional informal presentations were also made to personnel from the five groundwater management districts in Kansas. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Objective 1. Synthesize crop yield data & crop model ensembles The PreCiSA team will continue to collect data from ongoing long-term field experiments (Ames, Iowa and the Kellogg Biological Station (KBS), Michigan). Data will be synthesized to improve estimates of interactions between soil, climate, genetics and management on water quantity, quality, soil nutrients, and crop yield. We will expand data collection to include additional locations in Iowa. One permanent site will be developed in a corn-soybean field as part of the Long-term Agro-ecological Research (LTAR) program observatory network. Two other sites will be established as part of the validation campaign of the Soil Moisture Assessment Program (SMAP) and the Orbital Carbon Observatory (OCO) systems. A number of additional fields will be monitored for soil moisture and crop productivity as part of this validation experiment. The AgMIP Soil multi-model ensemble analysis will continue in new sites with long-term observed data from this project. We used several platforms (UAV, airborne, and satellite) to develop a database of more than 8000 remotely sensed images in 2015. This dataset will be analyzed with different vegetation indices and compared to indicators of crop performances and predictors of final yield along with crop model estimates. We will continue to collect images over growers' fields across the Midwest. The team will continue to gather data from yield mapping sensors collected from a large number of fields, crops and locations across the Midwest. Objective 2. Field Experimentation With the database developed from on-going plot-scale experiments, we will evaluate yield components to determine how yield is affected by interactions between management, the environment and genetic diversity. We will use this data to examine relationships between water use and radiation use efficiency for three management practices (conventional tillage, strip tillage, and no-till). We will begin to monitor water holding capacity and oxygen exchange. Research completed in Year 1 showed that limited water in the late grain-filling period is yield-limiting and that oxygen exchange is a limiting factor for both plant growth and grain-filling. Field scale studies will continue in Michigan at private farms and at the LTER- KBS site to evaluate the impact of management practices on water quality and quantity. Calculation of Nitrogen use efficiency and water use efficiency will continue at fields in both Iowa and Michigan. We will continue to monitor soil and crop conditions before planting and throughout the growing season to observe different levels of natural variation in rainfall conditions across the Midwest. We will use this data to quantify the impact of drought on yield using observed yield maps, in-season remote sensing images and crop model simulation results. We will study root distribution by fusing geophysical techniques and remote sensing. Electrical resistivity tomography data will be collected with on-the-go measuring devices and used to map soil electrical conductivity (EC). Remote sensing images will be correlated with EC maps and daily model estimates to test different hypotheses of root distribution in the field, water uptake, and spatial variability of grain yield. We will use the 35 vegetative indices we developed to provide a framework for quantifying field-scale variability across the Midwest and yield mapping within fields. The dataset of images collected for objective #1 will be used to correlate vegetation indices against model simulations. Correlation of these images with yield maps will continue in Years 2-5 to establish a database that will help us understand the causes of within-field yield variation in the Midwest. Objective 3. Integrated Systems Modeling Yield maps collected on growers' fields will continue to be analyzed with the goal of identifying zones within fields that are consistently low-yielding or high-yielding, as well as "unstable" zones characterized by large variations in yield over time. Once we have developed yield zones that describe spatial and temporal variation characteristics, simulations will be run for each zone that will be used to identify best management practices within zones. We will analyze historical trends (1900-2015) in temperature and precipitation records of the Global Historical Climatology Network Daily (GHCN-Daily) which will include both extreme events and agricultural metrics. We will finish processing CMIP5 GCM data for climate change projections and will also run and evaluate historical simulations of Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) over the Midwest. We plan to significantly advance the coupling of crop, irrigation, water quantity, and water quality models and simulations. We will continue to work on describing the role of agricultural management on aquifer recharge across the Southern High Plains. We will simulate the combined depletion effects of climate change and irrigation water demand on the Central High Plains aquifer, how this may feedback to limit regional production, and what strategies may be used to more sustainably manage groundwater resources. We will model the fate and transport of surface-applied nutrients to streams, lakes and wetlands in Michigan and expect this model will be readily transferable to the full study region. We will simulate the effect on the hydrologic budget of irrigated regions of shifting from less efficient flood and center pivot irrigation systems to more efficient Low Energy Precision Application (LEPA) systems. We will expand the region where the Landscape Hydrology Model (LHM) is applied to include the entire High Plains, Upper Mississippi Basin, and Great Lakes Basin. We plan to make significant progress toward running the model in a now-cast mode so we can analyze the impact of extreme events in near real-time. We will continue to improve the new water-balance approach developed in Year 1 that assesses the impact of management actions and the prospects for aquifer sustainability in areas heavily used for irrigated agriculture. We will continue to refine and extend the use of radar precipitation data, in conjunction with water-level and water-use data, to assess the impact of climatic stresses on groundwater resources. This approach can be used to assess the impact of precision agriculture on aquifers. We will continue to develop methods to interpret water-level data from a network of specially constructed and monitored wells in Kansas to provide additional insight into an aquifer's response to groundwater pumping for irrigation. We will estimate and calibrate technology adoption models with irrigation data and SALUS outputs to allow analysis of precision technology adoption across different institutional and hydrologic settings in the High Plains. We will implement numerical modeling of policies for agricultural water allocation, including quotas, pumping taxes, zoning systems, and tradable permit systems. Objective 4. Extension and Decision Support System We will continue to develop and improve i-SALUS, the web-based DSS. Michigan growers will be trained to use i-SALUS to quantify the impact of management strategies on long-term yields, nitrogen and water use efficiency, water quality and greenhouse gas emissions. Objective 5. Provide Integrated Education Methods We will form a summer institute with a teacher advisory group that will design and test professional development workshop materials that include project-related agricultural sustainability issues, pilot-testing of materials based on project data and adapting materials to classroom curricula. We will make a presentation to teachers at the annual Michigan Science Teachers Association (MSTA) conference about the professional development workshop. We will continue to adapt research results from the project for use by science teachers.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? As climate variability increases, agricultural producers are becoming more open to new ideas that can lead to better resource management. The PreCiSA team has produced innovative tools and techniques in Year 1 that represent changes in knowledge that should have broad impact for agricultural producers, researchers and policy makers. These include: 1) A large database of more than 8000 images (representing 16,000 acres) collected throughout the Midwest shows that spatial variability is the norm in farmers' fields. Coupling these images with soil and crop data reveals that Nitrogen and water use efficiency vary significantly over space and time. Through integration of remotely sensed data, yield data and crop model simulations we plan to identify best management practices that will lead to both increased profits for farmers and reduced nitrate leaching and greenhouse gas emissions. 2) We ran large scale simulations with the SALUS model that used high spatial resolution soil data from across the Midwest. These simulations demonstrated the importance of management decisions in increasing yield and reducing nitrate leaching and carbon loss from soil. 3) We developed i-SALUS, a farmer-friendly, web-based agronomic decision support system (DSS) designed to directly help farmers optimize water, nitrogen and phosphorous use on their farms and reduce environmental impact. i-SALUS is simple to use and generates high quality output in a few seconds. 4) We developed several detailed databases with information from farmers' fields that quantify the spatial and temporal variability of crop yield, water use and nitrogen use efficiency, yield maps and airborne remote sensing imagery. 5) We demonstrated that the primary data collection emphasis for water managers should be to obtain reliable water-level and water-use data rather than pumping tests and recharge studies. This knowledge is valuable for water managers who must allocate scarce resources for data collection in areas where aquifers support irrigated agriculture. 6) We examined the role of a judicially-mandated limit on water use in Nebraska's Republican River Basin in the 1990s which demonstrated a "rush to pump" between the date of the Supreme Court decision and when restrictions took effect. 7) We have shown that crop model simulations that incorporate changes in soil characteristics from one year to the next produce significantly different results from those that are re-initialized annually, the common practice by researchers. Objective 1. Synthesize crop yield data & crop model ensembles A database was created with county-level corn and soybean yield data for all Midwestern counties (1950-present) which will be used to place the results of field experiments into the context of long-term trends. Data from long-term field experiments in Iowa and Michigan have been assembled into a database that will be used to evaluate the evapotranspiration component of crop models. A database of model performance for 30 variables in 43 countries was developed. Measured and observed values from the multimodel ensemble intercomparison simulations are stored in the AgMIP Soil database. Objective 2. Field Experimentation Data from plot-scale experiments (2010-present) designed to compare three tillage systems (conventional and strip tillage and no-till) for two corn hybrids and two soybean cultivars have been assembled into a database. Data from the long-term experiments have been analyzed to establish relationships between water use and radiation use efficiency for several management practices. Measurements made over field- and plot-scale experiments with ground-based radiometers were paired with plant data to develop 35 different vegetative indices. All airborne and UAV images are currently being analyzed. Images are stored in an internal database. Objective 3. Integrated Systems Modeling Yield maps made from data collected in Year 1 have been used to create stability maps that describe the spatial and temporal variability of corn, wheat and soybean yields. We assessed the availability of observational data for use in historical climate analyses and climate projections, made progress setting up a regional climate model over the study domain, and began to evaluate global climate model data for future climate scenarios. Incorporating irrigation into climate models is critical to adequately simulate "downwind" precipitation and temperatures. We significantly reduced a pervasive dry bias in regional climate simulations by including a realistic, dynamic irrigation model. We determined that continuous crop growth simulations produce significantly different results from simulations re-initialized annually, a common practice of researchers. Spatial patterns of changes in regional grain production between irrigated and rainfed corn and wheat in the Central High Plains were investigated using crop models and climate change scenarios. With the SALUS model and data from state-of-the-art subsurface lysimeters, we demonstrated that some crops significantly augment groundwater recharge and others use water more efficiently than corn. We conducted ERT surveys with a novel buried electrode array that allows permanent installation in actively managed agricultural fields. This required new techniques to infer soil moisture, a joint-inversion approach using both hydrologic and electrical conductivity models that should allow more flexible ERT array types. We examined the role of a judicially-mandated restriction on Nebraska's water use in the Republican River Basin in the 1990s which revealed a "rush to pump" between the Supreme Court decision and the date when restrictions took effect. Large scale hydrologic models offer a means by which both backcast and future scenarios can be simulated when dynamic and realistic irrigation is incorporated. Lack of consistent and complete irrigation water use data has left this important piece of the water cycle poorly described. We developed new irrigation routines that have shown good response in irrigation water demand compared to regions with reasonably complete data collection. We developed a new water-balance approach for assessing the impact of proposed management activities and the prospects for aquifer sustainability which allows direct calculation of the net inflow component of the water balance. This method was tailored for aquifers that support irrigated agriculture and should prove valuable beyond the High Plains aquifer. We developed two conceptual models of technology adoption within farming communities. One is a rational decision model where farmers update their information about new technologies in a Bayesian fashion and optimally make their adoption decisions. The other is a behavioral decision model where farmers update their information in a non-Bayesian fashion and make suboptimal adoption decisions. Objective 4. Extension and Decision Support System We developed i-SALUS, a web-based agronomic DSS designed to help farmers optimize water, nitrogen and phosphorous use, increase resource use efficiency, and reduce environmental impact. SALUS is a simple computer program that can be run in "real time" and generate outputs within a few seconds. Basso has participated in several farmers' workshops and commodities group meetings where the image and yield maps work and an introduction to i-SALUS were presented. Objective 5. Provide Integrated Education Methods A plan of project-related topics has been developed for teachers' workshops that meet the standards of the National Research Council. Classroom activities to study soil and plant growth constraints have been developed as well as an understanding of the limitations for teaching about plant systems in classrooms. We investigated the market for professional teacher development in Michigan, Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska to determine continuing education requirements for teachers.

Publications

  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Presentation: J.M. Winter, A.C. Ruane, and C. Rosenzweig: AgMIP Water: Integrating Water Scarcity into Future Agricultural Assessments. American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers 1st Climate Change Symposium, Chicago, USA, 05 May 2015
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Basso, B. 2015. A systems approach to identify adaptation strategies for Midwest US cropping systems under increased climate variability and change. AGU (Invited talk) San Francisco, USA, 14 Dec 2015
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Oral presentation: Whittemore, D.O., J.J. Butler, Jr., and B.B. Wilson, Prediction of water-level changes and water use in the High Plains aquifer from radar precipitation, Abstract H14B-04 presented at 2015 Fall Meeting, American Geophysical Union, San Francisco, Dec. 14, 2015
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Oral presentation: Butler, J.J., Jr., D.O. Whittemore, and B.B. Wilson, Assessing the future of the High Plains aquifer, invited luncheon presentation at the 36th Annual Oklahoma Governor's Water Conference and Research Symposium, Norman, OK, Dec. 2, 2015
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Oral presentation: Butler, J.J., Jr., D.O. Whittemore, and B.B. Wilson, Assessing prospects for sustainability in the High Plains aquifer in Kansas, presented at the 2015 Governor's Conference on the Future of Water in Kansas, Manhattan, KS, Nov. 19, 2015
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Oral presentation: Whittemore, D.O., J.J. Butler, Jr., B.B. Wilson, and J. Woods, Using radar precipitation to estimate water-level changes and water use in the High Plains aquifer, presented at the 2015 Governor's Conference on the Future of Water in Kansas, Manhattan, KS, Nov. 19, 2015
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Oral presentation: Butler, J.J., Jr., D.O. Whittemore, and B.B. Wilson, Prospects for extending the lifetime of the High Plains aquifer  the role of groundwater flow, invited presentation at the Kansas Water Congress summer meeting, Lawrence, KS, August 6, 2015
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Oral presentation: Butler, J.J., Jr., KGS research on the High Plains aquifer, presentation to the Kansas Geological Survey Advisory Council, Lawrence, KS, July 31, 2015
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Oral presentation: B. Basso, A crop model ensemble analysis of wheat yield sensitivity to changes in temperature and precipitation across a European transect. MACSUR Conf. Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Ag & Food
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Session Convener: J.M. Winter, B. Basso, C. Rosenzweig: Improving the Simulation of Climate Impacts on Agriculture: AgMIP and Related Research. American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, San Francisco, USA, Dec 14, 2015.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2016 Citation: Young, R.K., Brozovic, N., 2016, Innovations in groundwater management: Smart markets for transferable groundwater extraction rights, Technology and Innovation, in press.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Dumont, B., et al., 2015. Climatic risk assessment to improve nitrogen fertilisation recommendations : A strategic crop model-based approach. European Journal of Agronomy Vol 65, 10-17.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Dumont, B., et al., 2015. A comparison of within season yield prediction algorithms based on crop model behaviour analysis. Agricultural and Forestry Meteorology. Vol 204, 10-21
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Dumont, B., et al., 2015. Systematic analysis of site-specific yield distributions resulting from nitrogen management and climatic variability interactions. Precision Agriculture Vol 16, Issue 4, 361-384
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Poster presentation: Smidt, S.J., Haacker, E.K., Deines, J.M., Pei, L., Cotterman, K.A., Li, H., Liu, X., Kendall, A.D., and D.W. Hyndman, Modern challenges to agricultural water management: Physical, agricultural, and socioeconomic implications on the High Plains Aquifer. Geological Society of America Annual Meeting, Baltimore, MD, USA, November 1-4
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2016 Citation: Pei, L., Moore, N., Zhong, S., Kendall, A.D., Gao, Z., and D.W. Hyndman, Effects of irrigation on summer precipitation over the United States, Journal of Climate: in review
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Oral Presentation: Basso et al., AgMIP Soil: Modeling the Impact of Soil Processes and Crop Rotations Effects on Yield. Synergy in Science: Partnering for solutions. ASA, CSSA & SSSA International Annual Meetings, November 15-18, 2015 Minneapolis, MN, USA.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Oral Presentation: Basso et al., Modeling the Impact of Climate Change and Management on Corn Yield, Soil Carbon and Nitrate Leaching in Midwest US Synergy in Science: Partnering for solutions. ASA, CSSA & SSSA International Annual Meetings, November 15-18 Minneapolis, MN, USA.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Oral Presentation: Dumont B and Basso B. 2015. A Tactical Decision Support System to Optimise Nitrogen Management. Synergy in Science: Partnering for solutions. ASA, CSSA & SSSA International Annual Meetings, November 15-18 Minneapolis, MN, USA.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Oral Presentation: Basso B. 2015. Modeling soil processes for adapting agricultural systems to climate variability and change. Invited speaker at ASABE meeting, Chicago, May 3-4 2015.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2016 Citation: Basso, B., et al., 2016 Tradeoffs between maize yield and nitrate leaching in a Mediterranean nitrate-vulnerable zone under current and projected climate scenarios. PLOS ONE DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0146360
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2016 Citation: Basso, B., et al., 2016. Environmental and economic benefits of variable rate nitrogen fertilization in a nitrate vulnerable zone., Science of The Total Environment (Pages 227235) Vol. 1, pages 545546
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2016 Citation: Basso, B., et al., 2016. A Comprehensive Review of the CERES-Wheat, -Maize and-Rice Models Performances. Advances in Agronomy. Pages 1-106 http://dx.DOI.org/10.1016/bs.agron.2015.11.004
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2016 Citation: Smidt, S.J., Haacker, E.M.K., Kendall, A.D., Deines, J.M., Pei, L., Cotterman, K.A., Li, ., Liu, X., Basso, B, and D.W. Hyndman, �����Complex water management in modern agriculture: Trends in the water- energy-food nexus over the High Plains Aquifer, Science of the Total Environment: nearing submission
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Oral Presentation: Rotter, R., et al. Using a Large Ensemble of Crop Models to Simulate the Climate Sensitivity of Wheat Yields Across a European Transect. Synergy in Science: Partnering for solutions. ASA, CSSA & SSSA International Annual Meetings, November 15-18 Minneapolis, MN, USA.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2016 Citation: van Bussel, L., et al. 2016. Spatial sampling of weather data for regional crop yield simulations. In press: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2016 Citation: Basso et al., 2016. Variable rate nitrogen fertilizer response in wheat using remote sensing. Precision Agriculture DOI 10.1007/s11119-015-9414-9
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Oral Presentation: Pirttioja, N et al. 2015. Wheat yield sensitivity to climate change across a European transect for a large ensemble of crop models. Climate-Smart Agriculture, Global Science Conference, March 16-18, 2015 Le Corum, Montpellier, France.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Oral Presentation: Basso B. Next Generation Precision Agriculture. 22 May IFE Distinguished Visitor Lecture, Queensland University of Technologies, Brisbane, Australia
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Oral Presentation: Cammarano, D., et al., 2015. Multi-Model Intercomparison of Wheat Water Use Patterns and Sensitivity to Temperature and CO2. Grand Challenges, Great Solutions. ASA, CSSA & SSSA International Annual Meetings. Nov. 2-5, Long Beach, California, USA
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Basso B., et al., 2015. Can Impacts of Climate Change and Agricultural Adaptation Strategies Be Accurately Quantified if Crop Models Are Annually Re-Initialized? PLOS ONE, Vol 10, 6. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0127333
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Makowski D., et al., 2015. Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production. 2015. A statistical analysis of three ensembles of crop model responses to temperature and CO2 concentration. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Vol 214, 483-493
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Asseng, S., et al., 2015. Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production. 2015. Nature Climate Change DOI:10.1038/nclimate2470.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Dzotsi, K. A. et al 2015. Parameter and uncertainty estimation for maize, peanut and cotton using the SALUS crop model. Agricultural Systems 135 (2015) 3147
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: OLeary, G.J., et al., 2015. Response of wheat growth, grain yield and water use to elevated CO2 under a Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiment and modelling in a semi-arid environment. Global Change Biology. doi: 10.1111/gcb 12830.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Stuart D., et al.,. 2015. Coupled Human-Natural Systems Understanding of Agricultural Nitrogen Loss. Bioscience 65,6, 571-578
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Presentation: Foster, T., and Brozovic, N., 2015, Windows of opportunity for groundwater management, AGU annual conference, San Francisco, December 2015.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Poster presentation: Butler, J.J., Jr., D.O. Whittemore, and B.B. Wilson, A new approach for assessing aquifer sustainability and the impact of proposed management actions, Abstract H21B-1366 presented at 2015 Fall Meeting, American Geophysical Union, San Francisco, Dec. 15, 2015.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Poster presentation: Haacker, E.M., Smidt., S.J., Kendall, A.D., Basso, B., and D.W. Hyndman, Effects of the Conservation Reserve Program on Hydrologic Processes in the Southern High Plains, AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA, USA, December 14-18
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Poster presentation: Smidt, S.J., Haacker, E.M.K., Kendall, A.D., and D.W. Hyndman, Simulating Groundwater Recharge Across the Southern High Plains, AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA, USA, December 14-18 2015
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Poster presentation: Deines, J., Hyndman, D.W., and A.D. Kendall, Quantifying the Impact of a Transboundary Streamflow Agreement on Groundwater Resources in the US High Plains Aquifer, AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA, USA, December 14-18
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Poster presentation: Cotterman, K.A., Kendall, A.D., Basso, B., and D.W. Hyndman, Climate Change Impacts of Irrigation on the Central High Plains, AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA, USA, December 14-18
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Oral presentation: Hyndman, D.W., Kendall, A.D., Smidt, S.J., Deines, J., Liu, X., Cotterman, K., and E.M.K. Haacker, Evaluating Water Sustainability across the High Plains Aquifer using Remote Sensing and Process-Based Hydrology Models (Invited), AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA, USA, December 14-18 2015
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Poster presentation: Dahl, T., Kendall, A.D., and D.W. Hyndman, Comparing Sediment Yield Predictions from Different Hydrologic Modeling Schemes, AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA, USA, December 14-18 2015
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Poster presentation: Pei, L., Moore, N., Zhong, S., Kendall, A.D., and D.W. Hyndman, How does irrigation modulate regional climate under wet and dry conditions? AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA, USA, December 14-18 2015