Recipient Organization
UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI
(N/A)
COLUMBIA,MO 65211
Performing Department
Social Sciences
Non Technical Summary
The Great Recession brought the collapse of the stock market, high foreclosure rates, falling housing prices, and rising unemployment. Scholarly research investigating the specific impacts of the recession on rural communities is just emerging. Reports from various agencies give some insight into these issues and provide some direction for future research (Berendt and James, 2009; Kusmin, 2011; McBride and Kemper, 2009). The proposed multistate project is expected to provide a comprehensive picture of recent demographic processes in U.S. rural areas, at several levels of geography, in the years before, during, and after the Great Recession. Specific research objectives include: (1) investigating U.S. rural population change (births, deaths, domestic and international migration) during the periods before, within, and after the Great Recession; (2) better understanding the linkages between job loss and demographic change in rural contexts; and (3) examining dynamics in rural housing markets in light of shifting rural population composition and new economic realities.Rural America has experienced various types of reverse migration flows from urban areas since the 1970s. Recent rural in-migration is increasingly driven by the seeking of natural amenities, and tends to concentrate in traditional natural resource-based (particularly forest-based) communities. These communities are often at risk from a variety of ecological disturbances (e.g., insects, wildfires, and droughts) that are expected to be exacerbated by environmental change across different scales. A common strategy in studying the potential social, economic, and environmental impacts of rural in-migration is comparing rural migrants and nonmigrants on relevant experience, perceptions, and activities. However thus far, few studies have assessed the temporal shifts in migrant-nonmigrant differences despite the highly dynamic nature of rural population change. Northern Colorado has experienced both a large mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreak and substantial in-migration in recent decades. The Missouri research unit will draw on previously and newly collected empirical data to explore how the differentials between newer and long-time rural residents in community interaction, risk perceptions and attitudes, and environmental actions evolved with time. Finding from this research are likely to contribute to a better understanding of the social interaction and integration of newer residents in rural America, and shed light on the effects of the Great Recession on rural population dynamics and community response to forest disturbances.
Animal Health Component
50%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
50%
Applied
50%
Developmental
(N/A)
Goals / Objectives
Document the realignment of U.S. nonmetro population growth and decline during the periods before, during, and after the Great Recession of 2006-2009, examine the dynamics of these changes (births, deaths, internal and international migration), and investigate their social and economic determinants, paying close attention to regional and local variation.
Describe shifts in rural unemployment and investigate linkages between job loss and population dynamics, notably the impact of rising unemployment on shifts in migration flows between nonmetro and metro areas and changes in levels of immigration to rural destinations.
Examine dynamics in rural housing markets in light of shifting rural population composition and new economic realities, in particular how increased socioeconomic diversity in rural areas (age, race, household structure, class) alters the demand for different forms of rural housing, how poverty concentration in some areas and wealth in others creates housing stress, and how communities were differentially impacted by the housing-led recession.
Project Methods
General Methods of the Multistate ProjectAll three research objectives share methodological approaches and strategies for joint planning and data sharing developed in the predecessor committee (W2001). The research will still depend in large measure on aggregate-level, comparative, and cross-sectional analyses of population change and redistribution using data from various federal sources, including the U.S. Census Bureau, USDA's Economic Research Service, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Committee members will collaborate to build databases that all members can access. Most of the work will be at the county level of analysis and will employ nonmetro counties as a proxy for rural and small-town areas.Each collaborator will pursue research in his/her area of expertise (e.g., migration, aging, poverty, community change, economic restructuring) using similar sets of measures, timelines, geographic breakdowns, and statistical tools whenever possible. As in previous projects, survey research, case studies, focus groups, and other types of analyses will elaborate the information obtained from the aggregate level demographic analysis. These more intensive approaches strengthen and deepen explanations and provide additional, localized meaning to the aggregate, more quantitative information.Specific Methods of the Missouri UnitThe 2006-2007 research used a mixed methods approach (Tashakkori and Teddlie 1998) in data collection and analysis. The nine study communities were selected to represent a broad array of local experiences with the MPB disturbance and socioeconomic conditions in the study area. These nine communities range from luxury resort towns (such as Breckenridge and Vail) to rural communities transitioning from extractive industries such as ranching and logging to more of a natural amenity orientation (such as Granby, Kremmling, and Walden). Based on the information collected through 165 interviews with local residents (key informants) who were knowledgeable about community affairs and were representative of community perspectives, a survey instrument was constructed and mailed to a sample of 4,027 randomly selected households from the nine study communities. Overall, 1,346 of the mailed surveys were completed and returned after multiple contacts with sampled households.This research will replicate in-depth interviews and mail surveys with the original respondents in the 2006-2007 study. New findings will be compared with earlier ones to assess changes in community disturbance experience, risk perceptions, satisfaction with land management, and activeness related to the MPB disturbance over time. Thematic and statistical techniques (descriptive, bivariate and multivariate) will be used respectively in the analysis of the qualitative and quantitative research data. The analysis and discussion of result will be guided by the following two research questions: (1) How newer and long-time residents were different in community experience, perceptions, and actions in response to the beetle outbreak? (2) How these differences between the two resident groups changed during the study period?