Source: UNIVERSITY OF RHODE ISLAND submitted to NRP
MANAGEMENT AND POLICY CHALLENGES IN A WATER-SCARCE WORLD
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
COMPLETE
Funding Source
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
1005053
Grant No.
(N/A)
Cumulative Award Amt.
(N/A)
Proposal No.
(N/A)
Multistate No.
W-3190
Project Start Date
Oct 28, 2014
Project End Date
Sep 30, 2019
Grant Year
(N/A)
Program Code
[(N/A)]- (N/A)
Recipient Organization
UNIVERSITY OF RHODE ISLAND
19 WOODWARD HALL 9 EAST ALUMNI AVENUE
KINGSTON,RI 02881
Performing Department
Environmental & Natural Resource Economics
Non Technical Summary
The current issue of interest is the cooperation among individuals with-in the context of water resources. This basic problem overlays groundwater and surface water management and touches on aspects of water use for irrigation as well as commercial and municipal uses. The tenants of cooperation depend on human behavior and the incentives that are provided to change a situation where resources are used too quickly and environmentally degraded because the cost of these actions are not fully realized to the individuals responsible. This works plans on addressing these issues through multiple angles, using empirical studies of current practices, as well as simulations to measure potental benefits of changes made to institutions, as well as labratory studies to understand the senstitivity of human behavior to changes made in the institutions.The goals of this research are to find the drivers of cooperation in human behavior when sharing water resources, and find out what tools can either voluntarily or involuntarily be used to improve cooperation. This should be of great use to society as the tragedy of the commons in water resources is one of the great problems that we face today, with every increasing future costs as water becomes scarcer.
Animal Health Component
(N/A)
Research Effort Categories
Basic
100%
Applied
(N/A)
Developmental
(N/A)
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
60502103010100%
Knowledge Area
605 - Natural Resource and Environmental Economics;

Subject Of Investigation
0210 - Water resources;

Field Of Science
3010 - Economics;
Goals / Objectives
Characterize bio-physical, socio-economic, and political/legal factors (and interactions of these factors) that influence water-use decisions and related market or non-market outcomes. Develop or enhance quantitative methods to address emerging water management issues. Evaluate and compare alternative water management strategies and institutions.
Project Methods
Efforts include formal classroom instruction, development of economic/hydrologic models, laboratory experiments; development of curriculum for water related courses and training graduate students in such activities.The project will be evaluated based on completion of research activities, such as running experiments and developing models on a time-line and the successful publication of findings in academic journals.

Progress 10/28/14 to 09/30/19

Outputs
Target Audience:The target audience in this reporting period was largely an academic audience and water policymakers. Through publications I was able to expand the group of people aware of my work and create connections to colleagues that work in water resource economics. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?The work on water quality has enabled myself to learn more about survey methods in developing countries and to incorporate these methods into graduate education at my university.I have been able to develop some computer coding skills withmy students that have worked on these projects as well as training them on the components to write a succesful economics research paper. This include research design of experiments and writing grant proposals. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?The results of this research have been presented at an international water and environmental economicsconferences and published in academic journals. Additionally, they have been discussed and presented with colleagues at the W3190 annual meeting. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? I published a paper that evaluated the willingness to pay for point-of-use water quality interventions in Guatamala. This, in conjunction with water testing done at a household level, demonstrated a gap in knowledge about water quality that affects the valuation for water filters and information. I developed models thatevaluatespatial policies that accomplished goals 1 and 3 of the project; in this, groundwater policies were compared in a spatially explicit bio-physical model to evaluate the effectiveness of these policies. I alsoestablished experimentally the connection between cognitive thought processes and cooperative behavior in common pool resources, which is the first paper to do so. This foundational work is informing much of the work I am continuing in the next W4190 group.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Guilfoos, T., Hayden, S., Uchida, E., & Oyanedel-Craver, V. (2019). WTP for water filters and water quality testing services in Guatemala. Water Resources and Economics, 100139.


Progress 10/01/17 to 09/30/18

Outputs
Target Audience:The target audience in this reporting period was largely an academic audience and water policymakers. Through publicationsI was able to expand the group of people aware of my work and create connections to colleagues that work in water resource economics. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Nothing Reported How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?The results were disseminated through the W3190 annual group meeting and through publication in journal Nature Sustainability. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?My plan is to develop grant applications with W3190 group members to investigate groundwater management strategies and cognitive processes.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Published a paper that evaluated cognitive elements of common pool resource depletion which addressed goals under objective 1. This relates to the myopic depletion of shared groundwater resources can be affected by the mental scarcity presented in users. This work established experimentally the connection between cognitive thought processes and cooperative behavior in common pool resources, which is the first paper to do so. This may have large policy implications, because it means that incentive and institutions not only lead to depletion of groundwater resources, but mental scarcity also plays a significant role in the sustainability of natural resources. Further work can establish if interventions can overcome this additional hurdle.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Brozyna, C, Guilfoos, T., Atlas, S. (2018) Slow and Deliberate Cooperation in the Commons. Nature Sustainability (4), 184.


Progress 10/01/16 to 09/30/17

Outputs
Target Audience:The target audience in this reporting period was largely an academic audience and water policymakers. Through publications and presentations I was able to expand the group of people aware of my work and create connections to colleagues that work in water resource economics. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Nothing Reported How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?The main avenue of presenting my research has been at conferences and through academic publications. I have been able to publish work in highly visible journals such as theAmerican Journal of Agricultural Economics. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?I look to advance the work begun in this project by continued publications in top journals as well as starting new projects that address how bargaining for environmental goods is affected by uncertainty which affects water users and water policy.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Published a paper that evaluated spatial depletion effects which addressedgoals 1 and 2of the project by developing a new model which incorporates exhuastion of groundwater supplies and estimates of welfare from better groundwater policies. I have also developed a new research projectto look at depletion and groundwater markets to understand how the design of groundwater markets affects welfare.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Nathaniel H Merrill, Todd Guilfoos; Optimal Groundwater Extraction under Uncertainty and a Spatial Stock Externality, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Volume 100, Issue 1, 1 January 2018, Pages 220238, https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aax057
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Guilfoos, Todd, and Kenneth J. Kurtz. "Evaluating the role of personality trait information in social dilemmas." Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics 68 (2017): 119-129.


Progress 10/01/15 to 09/30/16

Outputs
Target Audience:The target audience in this reporting period was largely an academic audience and water policy makers. Through publications and presentations I was able to expand the group of people aware of my work and create connections to colleagues that work in water resource economics. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?This project has allowed me to forward graduate students into primary research and authorship roles. The Graduate student supported on this project is the lead author on a groundwater policy paper in Revision and has adopted a career in water economics through a job at the EPA. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?The main avenue of presenting my research has been at conferences and through academic publications. I have been able to publish work in highly visible journals such as Water Resources Research and Land Economics with revisions in the American Journal of Agricultural Economics which includes a range of professional water economists, agriculutural policy makers, hydrologists, and engineers. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?I look to advance the work begun in this project by continued publications in top journals as well as starting new projects that address how bargaining for environmental goods is affected by uncertainty which affects water users and water policy.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Published a paper that evaluated spatial policies that accomplished goals 1 and 3 of the project; where simply groundwater policies were compared in a spatially explicit bio-physical model to evaluate the effectiveness of these policies. I also have another journal article in revision that incorporates a unique way to look at spatial depletion of the aquifer and groundwater management, this idea forwards goals 1 and 2, to advance methods to deal with the exhuastion of groundwater supplies and estimates of welfare from better groundwater policies.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Guilfoos, T., Khanna, N., & Peterson, J. M. (2016). Efficiency of Viable Groundwater Management Policies. Land Economics, 92(4), 618-640.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Miao, H., Fooks, J. R., Guilfoos, T., Messer, K. D., Pradhanang, S. M., Suter, J. F., ... & Uchida, E. (2016). The impact of information on behavior under an ambient-based policy for regulating nonpoint source pollution. Water Resources Research.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Booth, P. L., Guilfoos, T., & Uchida, E. (2016). Endowment Effects and Drinking Water Quality. Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, 45(2), 338-366.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Kim, C. S., & Guilfoos, T. (2016). The Effect of Cost-share Programs on Ground Water Exploitation and Nonpoint-source Pollution under Endogenous Technical Change. Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, 45(2), 394-417.


Progress 10/28/14 to 09/30/15

Outputs
Target Audience:The target audience in this reporting period was largely an academic audience and water policy makers. Through publications and presentations I was able to expand the group of people aware of my work and create connections to colleagues that work in water resource economics. Changes/Problems:The major challenges with this research agenda and formalizing new models and approaches to statistically estimate the models of behavior. Then apply these models in useful models of water use that have power to explain the coupled system of a dynamic resource and anthropogenic behavior. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?I have been able to develop some computer coding skills of my students that have worked on these projects as well as training them on the components to write a succesful economics research paper. This include research design of experiments and writing grant proposals. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Mainly through academic conferences and discussions with Water Offices, Directors of Water Research centers such asNebraska andKansas. The presentations have been at conferences with interdisciplinary audiences which also reach engineers, hydrologists, and a host of other disciplines. Also, being a part of a Water Cluster Group at the Universtiy of Rhode Island has also provided an opportunity to expose my research to colleagues also researching water across colleges and departments at URI. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?I am designing an additional experiment that looks at cognitive mechanisms that drive cooperative behavior in a dynamic common pool resource setting and decomposing the effects that lead to biases from a dynamic decision from the biases that are made by sharing a common resource. In addition, I am looking at learning effectst that occur in these experiments that may explain some heuristics that individuals use to make cooperative decisions and how they weigh different pieces of information when making cooperative economic decisions.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? I have developed a number of papers that are in review that have evaluated alternative water management strategies and applied them to scenario analysis in the High Plain Aquifer. These papers are in review in AJAE andLand Economics currently. In a addition I have designed laboratory experiments that investigate alternative psychological reasons for cooperative actions in a common pool resource such as groundwater. This could lead to the development of institutions that increase cooperative behavior and coalition formation in water sharing situations. Other water use decisions investigated during the period are the types of uncertianty that drive behavioral responses and cooperative behavior.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Guilfoos, Todd, and Andreas Duus Pape. "Predicting human cooperation in the Prisoners Dilemma using case-based decision theory." Theory and Decision (2015): 1-32.