Recipient Organization
TENNESSEE STATE UNIVERSITY
3500 JOHN A. MERRITT BLVD
NASHVILLE,TN 37209
Performing Department
Agricultural and Environmental Sciences
Non Technical Summary
United States has experienced severe weather events and climate anomalies in recent years. Agriculture and food production are easily impacted by natural events and disasters, because they rely on the weather, climate, natural resources, especially water to thrive. The drought in California in 2013-14 is one of the driest in recorded history following two consecutive dry years throughout the state. California produces nearly half of all U.S.-grown fruits, vegetables, and tree nuts. The drought potentially has considerable impacts on supplies, prices, and consumptions of affected products. Meanwhile, many parts of the U.S. were affected by extreme cold winter in 2013-14. Cold weather along with rising energy costs can impose financial burden on families. Low-income families are likely to have limited resources to cope with budgetary pressure, especially from unanticipated events and weather, and hence might be hit the hardest. Tennessee among other states in the South experienced a devastating flood in 2010, a significant drought in 2012, and a harsh winter in 2013-14, all at historical record levels. Many states in the South also have higher poverty rates and higher prevalence of food insecurity than other states. These critical conditions and situations are of national significance and of local and regional pertinence. Current research is very limited and research gaps and needs exist in examining these important issues.The project aims to examine the effects of severe weather events in 2013-14 on food prices and consumers in the U.S. Specifically, this project will investigate food prices for consumers and producers and examine the effects of anomalous weather events on these prices. The study will also assess important factors and market forces that influence food prices in tandem with severe weather shocks. The study will also examine how changes in food prices and severe weather conditions affected food consumption, in particular for low-income households. This empirical study will utilize most recent weather and economic data and apply various rigorous statistical and econometric methodologies.Many scientists and experts predict increasing risks for droughts and abnormal weather phenomena that threat agriculture and food supply in the future in the U.S. as well as worldwide. It is central to gain scientific evidence and knowledge of the impacts of severe weather events through rigorous research, which will help us improve our understanding of the issues, associated factors and causes, uncover problems, find solutions, and prepare us for the future. Effective strategies, programs, and policies depend critically on science-based knowledge of the issues at stake. The knowledge will benefit policy and program development and implementation. The knowledge gained will help inform families, producers, businesses, policy makers, and any other pertinent decision-makers, and hence help them make better decisions, better manage future events, and mitigate adverse impacts, especially for those in need the most. The project will also contribute to the institutional capacity building, enhance expertise, enrich curriculum, and instigate research opportunities for students.
Animal Health Component
40%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
55%
Applied
40%
Developmental
5%
Goals / Objectives
The goal of the project is to examine the impacts of severe weather conditions in 2013-14 on food prices and consumers in the U.S. The overall goal includes five specific objectives as follows. Discussions on activities, procedures and methods, associated outputs, and expected outcomes for each specific objective can be found in other sections of this Project Initiation and in the project proposal in the section "Procedure and Probable Duration."(1) The project will measure, examine, and characterize the draught in California and severe winter conditions that occurred concurrently in 2013-14 in the U.S.(2) The study will investigate variations in different food prices for consumers and producers, the effects of anomalous weather events on these prices, and whether different food prices respond to these weather events differently in relevant states/regions during the study period.(3) The project will examine important factors and market forces that influence food prices, and how these factors affect food prices in tandem with the abnormal weather events during the study period. Objectives 2 and 3 aim to assess the effects of the severe weather events in particular the drought in California on food prices.(4) The study will examine changes in food consumption during the study period, and whether and how changes in food prices and severe weather conditions affected food consumption, in particular for low-income households.(5) The objective includes three components. The first is to combine and synthesize the results, outputs, and outcomes from Objectives 1--4 and create an integrated overall analysis. Second, the project will provide science-based evidence and knowledge and will draw implications from findings to help relevant stakeholders to make informed decisions and to develop and implement more effective strategies, programs, and policies that will help better manage weather events and mitigate adverse impacts in the future, especially for those in need the most. Third, the project will disseminate research outputs such as research results and findings, procedures and methods, and pedagogical materials through presenting at professional meetings and in various online platforms, publishing journal articles, teaching and training students, networking and exchanges, discussion and consultation.
Project Methods
The following discussion presents the procedure and working plans including activities, methods, expected outputs and outcomes for each project objective.Objective 1The first objective is to measure, examine, and characterize the draught in California and severe winter conditions that occurred concurrently in 2013-14 in the U.S. The first set of activities include surveying various measurements and related data sources, selecting relevant and appropriate measurements for the study, collecting and compiling data and creating variables for statistical and econometric analyses. These include but not limited to temperature, precipitation, and other data from the National Weather Service and the U.S. Drought Monitor. The appropriate time length and frequency of the data will determined, which should extend beyond the weather events and match the outcomes that we will examine in the following objectives. We will also determine regions and aggregation levels in conjunction with the data on the economic outcomes to be examined.The second task is to carry out statistical analysis to characterize weather conditions and time-series modeling to estimate and identify shifts and breaks in weather variables. The analysis will identify the time periods and regions affected by the weather events. The procedures and methods for statistical and time-series analyses for other objectives are similar to those for weather variables, although technical details are likely to vary. Exploratory statistical analysis will be applied to examine the variation of individual data series as well as the relationship between variables. Various numerical measures will be obtained, statistical tests will be conducted, and graphical methods will be used especially to synthesize and present the results. The third part is to provide a summary on the measures, procedures and methods, and results and to produce an overall analysis.Objective 2The second and third objectives aim to assess the effects of the severe weather events in particular the drought in California on food prices. The second objective is to investigate variations in different food prices for consumers and producers, the effects of anomalous weather events on these prices, and whether different food prices respond to these weather events differently in relevant states/regions during the study period. First, we will identify and select pertinent price series for applicable commodities, regions, and aggregation levels based on study needs and the data availability and compatibility. The data will be collected, compiled and used to generate price variables for statistical and econometrics analyses.Second, the project will conduct statistical analysis to examine variations in these price series, and time-series analysis to identify significant shifts and shocks in price series during study period. The econometric analysis includes regression analysis, hypothesis tests and inferential analysis, and related specification tests and diagnostic tests. These and other econometric methodologies will also be applied to all other econometric analysis throughout this study. Fourth, an overall analysis of price variations and the impacts of severe weather events on food prices will be provided.Objective 3The third objective is to examine important factors and market forces that influence food prices and how these factors affect food prices in tandem with the abnormal weather events during the study period. First, we will identify significant factors and market forces in additional to weather and climate that have potential influence on food prices. This may include production and harvest acreages in major production regions in the U.S. and import and export volumes of relevant commodities. We will collect and compile data, and generate variables for these factors. Secondly, exploratory statistical analysis and time-series estimation will be conducted to examine changes in these factors.The third set of analysis aims to examine the impacts of weather on these factors and the relationships between different factors. Fourth, the data on food prices, weather conditions, and various factors will be integrated. A price model will be estimated for food prices and on these relevant factors that potentially influence prices. The analyses attempt to examine questions such as how weather events impact consumer and producer prices, whether responses in consumer prices differ from the prices at the farm gate, whether shocks at the farm level transmit to consumers quickly and fully, whether and how imports and exports adjust to be buffer shocks to production, among others. Finally, the results and analyses from all above will be put together and summarized.Objective 4The fourth objective is to investigate changes in food consumption during the study period, and whether and how changes in food prices and severe weather condition affected food consumption, in particular for low-income households. The first two sets of activities include data collection and compilation, and explanatory statistical analysis and time-series modeling. Third, the study will examine how food prices and weather conditions affected food consumption during the study period, in particular for low-income households. Fourth, we will investigate extended issues and topics on how the severe weather events impact consumers for future studies. Finally, activates and results will be summarized.Objectives 5The project will combine and synthesize the results, outputs, and outcomes from Objectives 1--4 and to produce an integrated overall analysis. The project will draw implications from the findings. The knowledge gained will help pertinent decision-makers, policy-makers, and all relevant stakeholders to make informed decisions and to develop and implement more effective strategies, programs, and policies that will help better manage future severe weather events and natural disasters and mitigate adverse impacts, especially for disadvantaged groups in need the most.Dissemination plan presents efforts including activities and processes that deliver science-based knowledge to pertinent stakeholders. The project will disseminate research outputs such as research results and findings, procedures and methods, and pedagogical materials through presenting at professional meetings and in various online platforms, publishing journal articles, teaching and training students, networking and exchanges, discussion and consultation. The project outputs therefore will make them widely available to scientific, academic, and professional communities, students, consumers, producers, policy makers, decision makers and beyond. The activities are not limited to be carried out the last in the sequence. Deriving policy implications and disseminating project outputs can be carried out whenever needed throughout of the project.The success of the project will be evaluated in terms of its effectiveness in meeting its stated goal and objectives. PD will ensure efficient and timely implementation of planned activates. PD will review working plans and assess progress on a quarterly basis, and will update and modify the plan and procedure as needed. PD will also consult with and solicit suggestions from other experts and relevant personnel throughout the project duration. The project adopts the process evaluation that monitors program implementation and activities and evaluates the extent to which the program has achieved expected outputs. The project will also implement the outcome evaluation that evaluates expected outputs and outcomes.