Source: TENNESSEE STATE UNIVERSITY submitted to NRP
ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF SHORT ROTATION WOODY BIOMASS FOR BIOENERGY
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
COMPLETE
Funding Source
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
1004799
Grant No.
(N/A)
Cumulative Award Amt.
(N/A)
Proposal No.
(N/A)
Multistate No.
(N/A)
Project Start Date
Oct 24, 2014
Project End Date
Sep 30, 2017
Grant Year
(N/A)
Program Code
[(N/A)]- (N/A)
Recipient Organization
TENNESSEE STATE UNIVERSITY
3500 JOHN A. MERRITT BLVD
NASHVILLE,TN 37209
Performing Department
Agricultural and Environmental Sciences
Non Technical Summary
This project will create an approach for cellulosic feedstock development, production, and delivery, leading to sustainable production of biomass for conversion to transportation fuels, bio-power, and bio-based materials. The goal of this project is to carry the current state of research forward to determine the technical, economic, social and environmental feasibility and benefits of utilizing short rotation woody biomass as a feedstock in the production of biofuels in the rural Southeastern region.The project will focus on short rotation woody crops of Paulownia and Sweet gum. To assess the potential of this feedstock as a lignocellulosic feedstock for advance biofuel production and electricity generation, the specific objectives of the research are to: a) document the growth performance, environmental conditions, and agronomy practices for Paulowia and Sweetgum, b) assess the economic benefits and cost of short rotation woody biomass crops for bioenergy production c) determine the factors that inhibit adaptation of short rotation woody biomass and d) determine environmental spillover of woody biomass via analysis of carbon stock and net energy balance.The proposed project activities will address all three area of the agricultural knowledge system: research, education and extension. Collectively, these activities comprise a regional approach to the creation of a sustainable biomass feedstock development, production and delivery system in the Southeastern United States. This project will support USDA-NIFA mission to facilitate energy security, economic, environmental and rural community sustainability.
Animal Health Component
100%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
(N/A)
Applied
100%
Developmental
(N/A)
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
60106993010100%
Goals / Objectives
The project will focus on short rotation woody crops of Paulownia and Sweet gum. To assess the potential of this feedstock as a lignocellulosic feedstock for advance biofuel production and electricity generation, the project will conduct research in the areas of:feedstock production and post-harvest logisticsprocessing options for cellulosic advance biofuel and electricity generation andenvironmental effects accounting carbon sequestration and energy benefitsThe specific objectives of the research are to:document the growth performance, environmental conditions, and agronomy practices for Paulowia and Sweetgum.assess the economic benefits and cost of short rotation woody biomass crops for bioenergy production.determine the factors that inhibit adaptation of short rotation woody biomassdetermine environmental spillover of woody biomass via analysis of carbon stock and net energy balance.
Project Methods
Methodology:Objective 1: Document the growth performance, environmental conditions, and agronomy practices for Paulowia and SweetgumPaulownia and sweet gum are not widely utilized in southeast region. Therefore it is important to document major aspects related to it's growth and performance and adoptability to agro environment conditions of southeast region. The necessary information will be documented via extensive review of literature. The lessons learned from growing these crops in other regions will be collected and document as supplementary source of information. These include species selection, yield data, input application and production costs. For example, the American Paulownia Growers Association will be contacted to receive list of current Paulownia growers to obtain production related information.Objective 2: Assess the economic benefits and cost of short rotation woody biomass crops for bioenergy production.To estimate the net economic benefit from biomass feedstock under different scenarios, a net economic return model will be used. The production data for the net returns model will be used based on the estimated yields for different sites.Producers are always concerned with economic benefits of their operation. This is particularly noticeable with regards to their decision making process in adopting to a new technology. In terms of production of short rotation woody biomass, producers are willing to know the economic benefits of new production methods including capital and operational costs. In order to answer these questions, a full range of Benefit Cost Analysis (BCA) will be performed to determine the financial and economic feasibility of selected short rotation woody biomass selection. This economic analysis will rely on quantitative and qualitative data mainly form secondary sources.The total cost of implementing bioenergy production will be estimated using the full cost accounting approach. This approach generally accounts for costs such as variable costs (e.g., land preparation, planting, fertilization, weed control, irrigation, transportation and marketing and processing) and fixed costs (structures, machinery, equipment for processing unit, and rental cost).In evaluating the benefits and costs, the Net Present Value (NPV) of producing advance biofuel will be calculated. The NPV is the present worth of a stream of net benefits over time.The overall approach is to estimate the average annual costs and benefits for production for growers. This approach should include the initial investment cost and also take into account the time value of money. Therefore, the overall cost estimates will be calculated as Annual Equivalent Costs (AEC) To calculate AEC, present value of all costs (PVC) of production will be transformed into an equivalent annuity with annual payment equal to AEC. Similarly, Annual Equivalent Revenues (AER) will also be estimated. Also payback period, benefit: cost ratio and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) will be assessed as investment evaluation criteria.Assessments will be performed for the production of advanced biofuel, as well as generation of electricity from woody biomass, hence information generated from this project will not only help biofuel producers in investment decision making, but also electricity producers in decision making from incorporating woody biomass as a substitute for coal.Objective 3: Determine the factors that inhibit adaptation of short rotation woody biomassA survey will be carried out to identify farmer awareness of attitudes toward growing short rotation woody biomass; and target market (farmers and related stakeholders) awareness; and interest in establishing such plantations. Evaluation factors will include, perceived obstacles, perceptions of potential immediate farm benefits, and perceptions of potential for farming community benefits, perceived training needs, broader workforce availability to support distribution systems. Regression models will be used to determine important factors responsible for adaptation to this technology (establishment of short rotation woody biomass for bioenergy production).Objective 4: Determine environmental spillover of woody biomass via analysis of carbon stock and net energy balance.The framework for net energy productivity will be assessed and will provide the basis for consistent comparison of alternatives and can be expanded in future work to include downstream biofuel production, greenhouse gas emissions and the impacts of government policy and input pricing.The woody biomass selected for ethanol production will have to be determined by: (1) energy balance (defined as the renewable energy output per unit of fossil energy input) and (2) cost of production. For example, Pimentel and Patzek (2005) argue that more fossil fuel energy is consumed in producing ethanol from corn grain than is contained in the biofuel.Therefore, the goal under this objective is to estimate a net energy value for biomass production, for the standard, average plantation using adaptations of NEV. More specifically, net energy balance accounting will consist of:estimate energy associated with equipment using an input-output energy matrix analysis with combined process analysis methods if necessary.estimate energy associated with organic and inorganic inputs (fertilizer, insecticide, water etc.).estimate energy associated with transportation, andcompare with estimated outputs.A comprehensive review of concepts, procedures, and relevant studies will be conducted using review of literature on net energy balance. The methodology for estimating net energy balance for Paulowina and Sweetgum is input-output (I-O) analysis. This involves computation of direct energy or the energy used on-site for the production of these species, as well as indirect energy or energy used off-site to manufacture inputs. Indirect energy totals for feedstock production will be derived using I-O tables and process analysis. For example, energy embodied in inputs (fertilizer and pesticides, and seed stock) will be calculated using process analysis, Energy embodied in machinery will be analyze using USDA GREET model and I-O tables, energy in farm structures and buildings will be done using I-O tables.

Progress 10/24/14 to 09/30/17

Outputs
Target Audience:The target audience includes graduate and undergraduate students, researchers, policy makers,producers, forest land holderswho can benefit from the increased knowledge about opportunities of growing new gneration short-rotation woody biomass for bionergy sector. The project reached the targeted audience through student assistantships, teaching and mentoring activities, formal and informal outreach, contacts with growers etc.Project provided an opportunity for diverse group of students to learn about economc modelling, data collection analysis and report writing.Project also provided opportunities for students to develop business plans as a project activityin the course on "Agribusiness Management"thereforethisproject has impact on the students in classroom and beyond. The project provided an opportunity for two master-degree students to work on thesses. They are majored in Agricultural Sciences with concentrations of Agribusiness Analysis and Management. The theses from both students are part of the project's outputs.We also established collaborations with other 1890 universities conducting research on short-rotation woody biomass. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?The project activities provided a wide range of opportunities for students lear aboutresearch protocols,methodologiesfor data collection, calibration, developing benfit:cost estimation methods and models, risk analysis via Monti Carlo simulation techniques, interprent and dissiminate research findings. Studentsimproved presentation skills through conference presenttions, classroom presentations in seminar courses.Students alsoreceived mentoring, training, and experiential learning and practices. The project has impact on many students and beyond and trained students for workforce needs in bioenergy sector. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Communities of interest include students, researchers, policy makers, producers etc.The project disseminated knowledge gained and findings and reached communities of interest through graduate assistantships, teaching and mentoring activities, presentations at meetings/conference, formal and informal outreach, contact, discussions with groups and individuals in various events and outlets such as meetings. Also establised collaboration with 1890 institutes conduting short rotation woody biomass research and shared economic related information with scientists. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Under the task one, a comprehensive search of literature and data collection was performed and documented the growth performance, environmental conditions, and agronomy practices for Paulowia and Sweetgum. This information was used for the literature reveiw section of the Master theseses of the grduate students. Under task two, in order to assess the economic benefits and cost of short rotation woody biomassfor bioenergy production, alife cycle benefit:costs model was first developed forpaulownia/sweetgum feedstock production and processing into bioenergy. Various types of data from planting upto processing (i.e. input use, input costs, yield, dry matter prices, ethanol conversion rates, processing costs, ethanol prices etc) were usedto analyze benefit:costs estimation and related parameters. Further, a risk model was develpedforMonti Carlo simulation. For the task three, a pilot survey was performed to collect data on the factors that inhibit adoptation of short roation woody biomass. Due to poor response rate, a collection of meaningful data set was not possible. The opportuniteis and constraints were identified through a search of technology adoptation literature in similar aras. Under task four, a various components for energy input and output was identified and net energy balance model was developedto performed the analysis.

Publications

  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Other Year Published: 2018 Citation: Risk analysis of production of bioenergy from short rotation woody biomass of sweetgum. MS Thesis proposal, Tennessee State University
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Yuldashev, F., Illukpitiya, P and Tegegne, F. Economics of utilization of lignocellulosic biomass from short rotation woody crop of sweetgum for bioethanol production. Paper presented at the University Wide Research Symposium, Tennessee State University.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Singh, K., Illukpitiya, P., Singh, S. and Tegegne, F. 2014. Economic analysis of bioenergy production from Paulownia. Paper Presented at the University Wide Research Symposium, Tennessee State University.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: Singh, K., Illukpitiya, P., 2017. Economic potential for Paulownia as a short-rotation woody biomass for bioenergy production in mid-south. Manuscript in preparation. To be submitted to Journal Agroforestry.
  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Kuldeep Singh. 2015. Economic competitiveness of paulownia as a feedstock for ethanol production and electricity generation. MS Thesis, Tennessee State University


Progress 10/01/15 to 09/30/16

Outputs
Target Audience:Target audiences reached during the reporting period include: 1) Graduate students and undergraduate students: who involved in project activities related to: review of lietrature, data collection, analysis, thesis writing, preparation of factsheet. Students who attended thesis defense and presentations. 2) Extension agents: Those who received information on this potential new plant duringTSU small farm expo 3) Growers: who received information about this promising woody plant during TSU small farm expo 4) Faculty and staff members who gained knowledge thgough various formal and informal discusssions aboutthe project. Also include visiting scholars who worked under the supervision of the Project Director in 2015. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Opportunities for students: training incollecting data,analyses, skill development on preparing training materials,two visiting scholars received hands on experience in project activities.Specific training for studetns onperforming risk analysis using Monte Carlo Simulation, Benefit:cost analysis.Praticipating in project activities enhanced economic analysis skills needed for bioenergy feedstock development sector. Also project provided opportunitiesto improve communication skill ofstudents through presentations, preparation of fact sheet and manuscript. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?We have prepared a draft fact sheet with necessary information about establishment of plantation to harvesting, economic feasibility and bioenergy options of paulownia in order to reach the communities of interest. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Duringthe next reporting period, follwoing goals will be accomplished. a. complete data collection and perform cost benefit analysis of bioenergy production from sweet gum. We will do the similar analysis that we have performed for paulownia. Risk analysis will be performed for price, yield and effect of production costs on profitability from sweet gum. Students will actively participate in project activities and improve research skills. b. analyze carbon and net energy balance from growing and processing of paulownia and sweet gum for better understanding ofbenefits of establishing these forest plantations c. finalize the fact sheet about bioenergy options from the woody biomass that would help better dissimiation of findings of the research. d. submit manuscript for possible publication for dissimination of resuts for scientific community

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? 1. document the growth performance, environmental conditions, and agronomy practices for Paulowia and Sweetgum: The growth performance, agronomy practices, biomass yield, harvest interval, rotation time etcof Paulownia was carried out via extensive survey of literature and also visits to Paulownia field trials in Fort Valley State University. Literature survey was done for sweetgum and part of the data has been collected.. 2. assess the economic benefits and cost of short rotation woody biomass crops for bioenergy production: Collected data related to Paulownia production (input use, input costs, yield, dry matter prices), ethanol conversion rates, processing costs, ethanol prices etc needed for econmic analysis. Benefit:cost analysis was performed and risk analysis was done via Monti Carlo simulation. Graduate student sucessfully defended the thesis research done on economics of paulownia and graduated in Fall 2015. 3. determine the factors that inhibit adaptation of short rotation woody biomass: This task was carried out through the contact of paulownia growers, nursery producers and other stakeholders.

Publications

  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Kuldeep Singh. 2015. Economic competitiveness of paulownia as a feedstock for ethanol production and electricity generation. MS Thesis, Tennessee State University


Progress 10/24/14 to 09/30/15

Outputs
Target Audience:Undergradute students: those who engaged in project related work Graduate students: who involved inproject activities related toreview of lietrature, data collection, model development and analhysis Faculty Changes/Problems:In order to determine the factors that inhibit adaptation of short rotation woody biomass, we planned to conduct a producer survey. There are only few growers registered under American Paulownia Association, hence unable find sufficient sample to conduct a survey. we will further explore the possibility of finding growers, however given risk and uncertaintyassociated with this taskthere is a high probability that we may not be able to achieve this objective. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Opportunities for Graduate Students:Paulownia production aspects for bioenergy (ethaol production and electricity generation), data collection,analysis. Specific training on how to perform risk analysis using MonteCarlo Simulation. Opportunities for Undergraduate student: information on use of short roation woody biomass such as paulownia for bioenergy produciton How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? Nothing Reported What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Following activities are planning for next reporting period? document the growth performance, environmental conditions, and agronomy practices for Paulownia and Sweetgum. Plan to conduct extensive survey of literature to document needed information for performance evaluation, agronomy details etc. for Sweetgum. assess the economic benefits and cost of short rotation woody biomass crops for bioenergy production: Plan to collect necessary data on production inputs and its costs, yield variability, dry matter prices etc. for sweetgum production. Conduct financial and risk analysis for sweetgum production for bioenergy. determine the factors that inhibit adaptation of short rotation woody biomass: plan to develop a questionnaire and conduct survey to achieve this objective.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? document the growth performance, environmental conditions, and agronomy practices for Paulowia and Sweetgum: Extensive literature survey was carried out to document growth performance, yield, field operations for Paulownia assess the economic benefits and cost of short rotation woody biomass crops for bioenergy production: Collected data related to Paulownia production (input use, input costs, yield,dry matter prices), ethanol conversion rates, processing costs, ethanol prices etc needed for econmic analysis. Benefit:cost analysis was performed and risk analysis was done via Monti Carlo simulation

Publications

  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Under Review Year Published: 2015 Citation: Kuldeep Singh. 2015. Economic competitiveness of paulownia as a feedstock for ethanol production and electricity generation. MS Thesis, Tennessee State University