Source: WEST VIRGINIA UNIVERSITY submitted to NRP
SUSTAINABILITY OF CENTRAL APPALACHIAN FRESH WATER RESOURCES: IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE ON WATER QUANTITY AND WATER QUALITY
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
COMPLETE
Funding Source
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
1004360
Grant No.
(N/A)
Cumulative Award Amt.
(N/A)
Proposal No.
(N/A)
Multistate No.
(N/A)
Project Start Date
Sep 9, 2014
Project End Date
Aug 27, 2019
Grant Year
(N/A)
Program Code
[(N/A)]- (N/A)
Recipient Organization
WEST VIRGINIA UNIVERSITY
886 CHESTNUT RIDGE RD RM 202
MORGANTOWN,WV 26505-2742
Performing Department
Forestry
Non Technical Summary
Regional climate for the Northeastern US is expected to become wetter during winter seasons, with an increase in storm frequency, duration, and magnitude, while greater frequency of prolonged droughts are expected during the summer months. Recent increases in extreme precipitation in the densely populated Northeast are greater than any other region in the country, having important water resource management implications in the context of agricultural productivity and environmental integrity (i.e. erosion and nutrients), forest and natural resources management, civil infrastructure (e.g. bridges, dams, culverts), water treatment facilities, pollution and contaminant transport, safe guarding flood-prone communities, and safe guarding ecosystems and services (clean water, flood control, food and fiber) we rely on. This study aims to (1) assess the state of freshwater resources in the central Appalachian Mountains region by comparing historical (~1930-2014) and future (2015-2100) climate, water quantity, and water quality; and (2) assess the sensitivity of ecosystems to environmental change and climate change.
Animal Health Component
45%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
45%
Applied
45%
Developmental
10%
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
11202102050100%
Knowledge Area
112 - Watershed Protection and Management;

Subject Of Investigation
0210 - Water resources;

Field Of Science
2050 - Hydrology;
Goals / Objectives
This study aims to (1) assess the state of freshwater resources in the central Appalachian Mountains region by comparing historical (~1930-2014) and future (2015-2100) climate, water quantity, and water quality; and (2) assess the sensitivity of ecosystems to environmental change and climate change.
Project Methods
Historic (~1930-2014) long-term streamflow and water quality datasets for USGS Hydro-climatic Data Network (HCDN) watersheds will be used to identify systematic change in water quantity and quality through historical time periods to generate hypotheses about drivers of change (climate vs. land use).Historic long-term hydrology and climate data will then be used to calibrate watershed models and downscale global circulation models (GCMs) to local scales that will then be used to simulate future (2015-2100) hydrologic conditions under various emission scenarios provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment.Land-use Harmonization scenario data will be used to explore future patterns of land use. Different ecohydrological frameworks (e.g. Budyko decomposition, elasticity approach) will be used to partition the effects of climate change and land use change on hydrology to partition their respective roles on impacting water resources.

Progress 09/09/14 to 08/27/19

Outputs
Target Audience:The target audiences of this project are local, state, and regional natural resources agencies and non-profit organizations working in the realm of water quality and quantity, agriculutral, forest, and mineral resources management. Over the course of this 5-year project period, there has been direct engament with state level agencies that include the West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection, WV Department of Health and Human Resources, WV Division of Forestry, WV Division of Natural Resources,WV Advisory Committee for Water Research, and the West Virginia Mine Drainage Task Force; federal agenices that include US Army Corps of Engineers, USDA Forest Service, USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service; non-profit organizations that include Friends of the Cheat River, WV River Coalition, Rural Agricultural Defenders; academic instituions that include West Virginia University, Unitveristy of Pittsburgh, and Marshall University; and state, regional, national and international workshops and conferences such as the American Geophysical Union, Society of American Foresters, American Fisheris Society, 1st International Conference on Water Security, University Council of Water Resources/National Institutes for Water Resources Annual Water Resources Conference, American Association of Geographers Annual Meeting, and the Mid-Atlantic Regional Water Conference. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Over the course of this five year project, eight graduate studetns (6 MS/2 PhD) were trained in ecological, hydrological, and climatological measurements; data quality assurance/quality control and analysis; computational programming and software (R language, GIS); data synthesis and oral and written scientific communication. In addition, two post doctoral scholars contributed to the project and were similarly trained and assisted in training graduated students. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?As documented in the targeted audience and products sections, this project generated 5 journal articles, 22 presentations to local, state, federal organizations, non-profit organizations, universities, and professional groups. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? This project provided cirtical insight into how environmental change and climate change have impacted freshwater resources in West Virginia and the greater Appalachian Mountains region. Specifficaly, several water balacne and energy balance datasets were created that can be used by researchers, educators, and decison makers for bettering understanding the sensitivity and security of fresh water resources throughout the region.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Young, D., Z�gre, N., P. Edwards, Rodrigo Fernandez. 2019. Assessing streamflow sensitivity of forested headwater catchments to disturbance and climate change in the central Appalachian Mountains region, USA. Science of the Total Environment. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.188
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Fernandez, R. and Z�gre, N. (2019). Seasonal changes in water and energy balances over the Appalachian region and beyond throughout the 21st century. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-18-0093.1
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Gaertner, B. Zegre, N. Warner, T. Fernandez, R. He, Y. Merriam, E. (2018). Growing Season Response to Water Cycle Intensification: Implications for Long Term Forest Evapotranspiration. Science of the Total Environment. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.129.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Miller, A., N. Z�gre. 2016. Landscape-scale disturbance: Insights into the complexity of catchment hydrology in the mountaintop removal mining region of the eastern United States. Land. doi:10.3390/land5030022
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2019 Citation: Gaertner, B., Rodrigo Fernandez ., Z�gre, N. In Review. Twenty-first Century Streamflow and Climate Change in forest catchments of the central Appalachian Mountains region, US. Submitted to the journal Water.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2019 Citation: Z�gre, N.. 2019. West Virginia Water Security: Implications & Opportunities of a changing climate. Learn and Preserve: Jefferson County Regional Water Symposium. September 28. Rural Agricultural Defenders, Harpers Ferry, WV. https://www.radwv.org/learn-and-preserve-jefferson-county-wv-water-symposium/symposium-agenda-and-speakers/
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2019 Citation: Z�gre, N.. 2019. Public Health, Water Security, & Climate Change: A West Virginia Perspective. Climate Change & Public Health: Addressing the Growing Crisis Conference. September 21. College of Law Center for Energy and Sustainable Development, West Virginia University. https://energy.law.wvu.edu/events/climate-change-and-public-health
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2019 Citation: Z�gre, N.. 2019. West Virginia Water Security: Implications & Opportunities of a changing climate. July 16. WVU Core Arboretum Nature Connection Series, Department of Biology, West Virginia University. https://arboretum.wvu.edu/nature-connection-series
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2019 Citation: Z�gre, N.. 2019. West Virginia Water Security: Implications & opportunities of a changing climate. Education Eddy, Friends of the Cheat River 2019 Cheat River Festival. May 4, 2019
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2019 Citation: Z�gre, N.. 2019. West Virginia Water Security: Implications & Opportunities of a changing climate. April 16. Department of Geology & Geography, West Virginia University.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2019 Citation: Z�gre, N.. 2019. West Virginia Water Security: Implications & Opportunities of a changing climate. April 25. WVU Sierra Club Earth Day Celebration, West Virginia University.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2019 Citation: Z�gre, N.. 2019. West Virginia Water Security: Implications & Opportunities of a changing climate. April 1. WVU Academic Media Day, West Virginia University. https://www.wvnews.com/morgantownnews/news/wvu-s-academic-media-day-focuses-on-climate-change-effects/article_9c26ab1f-1707-5959-9440-b823e8d453c9.html
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2018 Citation: Z�gre, N.. 2018. The Appalachian Water Tower: The role of mountain ecosystems in regional water security. Department of Geology & Environmental Science, University of Pittsburgh.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2018 Citation: Z�gre, N. 2018. The Appalachian Water Tower: The role of mountain catchments in regional water security. Institute of Water Security & Science Spring Conference. Morgantown, WV. February 1-2.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: Z�gre, N.. 2016. Intensification of the water cycle: Implications of change for rivers, watersheds, and people of the Mountain State. Center for Environmental, Geotechnical and Applied Sciences, Marshall University, Huntington, WV. 6 December.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: Z�gre, N.. 2016. The WVU Mountain Hydrology Laboratory, Institute for Water Science & Security, WVU. Morgantown, WV. 22 April.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Z�gre, N. 2015. Seeing the water through the valley fill: Emerging hydrologic controls across scales. West Virginia Mine Drainage Task Force. Morgantown, WV. March 31 April 1, 2015.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Z�gre, N. 2015. Why temperature matters: Implications for forested watersheds and services. USFS training workshop for WV Climate Change Adaptation. Morgantown, WV April 2015.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2018 Citation: Guillen, L.A., Z�gre, N., R. Fernandez. 2018. Evaluating the Stability of Headwater Reference Catchments from Long-Term Paired Watershed Studies: an Eastern Perspective. American Geophysical Union. Fall Meet. Suppl., Final Paper # H33L-2236. Washington, D.C. December 10-14.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2018 Citation: Casey, B., B McNeil, E. Brzostek, N. Raczka, Z�gre, N., L.A. Guillen. 2018. Improving forest water balance models by quantifying tree species differences in crown architecture and evapotranspiration. American Geophysical Union. Fall Meet. Suppl., Final Paper #B11B-2133. Washington, D.C. December 10-14.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2018 Citation: Z�gre, N., R. Fernandez., R. Rushforth, Benjamin Ruddell. The Appalachian Water Tower: The role of mountain water in regional water security. 1st International Conference on Water Security. Toronto, Canada. June 17-20.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2018 Citation: Casey, B., B. McNeil, E. Brzostek, N. Raczka, Z�gre, N., L.A. Guillen. 2018. Utilizing a Water Balance Model Approach in Assessment of Forest Response to Drought Conditions. University Council of Water Resources/National Institutes for Water Resources Annual Water Resources Conference. Pittsburgh, PA. June 26-28.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2018 Citation: Guillen, L.A., Z�gre, N., R. Fernandez. 2018. Evaluating the Stability of Headwater Reference Catchments from Long-Term Paired Watershed Studies: an Eastern Perspective. University Council of Water Resources/National Institutes for Water Resources Annual Water Resources Conference. Pittsburgh, PA. June 26-28.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2018 Citation: Strager, M., Z�gre, N.. 2018. A Two-Scaled Approach for Flood Susceptibility Prediction in Appalachia. University Council of Water Resources/National Institutes for Water Resources Annual Water Resources Conference. Pittsburgh, PA. June 26-28.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2018 Citation: Fernandez, R., Z�gre, N.. 2018. Projected Changes in Atmospheric Water Supply and Demand across the Appalachian Region During the 21st Century and their Impacts on Water Supply to Major Cities in Eastern U.S. University Council of Water Resources/National Institutes for Water Resources Annual Water Resources Conference. Pittsburgh, PA. June 26-28.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2018 Citation: Fernandez, R., J. Shinn, M. Caretta, Z�gre, N.. 2018. Merging the Hydrosocial and Social-Hydro Frameworks: An Interdisciplinary Approach to the Study of Flooding in Appalachia. University Council of Water Resources/National Institutes for Water Resources Annual Water Resources Conference. Pittsburgh, PA. June 26-28.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2018 Citation: Guillen, L.A., Z�gre, N., R. Fernandez. 2018. Evaluating the Stability of Headwater Reference Catchments from Long-Term Paired Watershed Studies: an Eastern Perspective. Institute of Water Security & Science Spring Conference. Morgantown, WV. Feb. 1-2.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2018 Citation: Gaertner, B., Z�gre, N., R. Fernandez, Y. He. T. Warner. 2018. Impacts of climate change on forest phenology and implications for streamflow in the central Appalachian Mountains region, United States. Institute of Water Security & Science Spring Conference. Morgantown, WV. Feb. 1-2.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2018 Citation: Kearns, M. Fernandez, R., Z�gre, N.. 2017. Quantifying the Consumptive Landscape in the Potomac Watershed Upstream From Washington D.C. American Geophysical Union. Fall Meet. Suppl., Final Paper # GC31F-02. New Orleans, LA. December 11-15.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: Fernandez, R., Z�gre, N.. 2017. Assessment of 21st century change of climate drivers to hydrological change across the Appalachian Region. American Geophysical Union. Fall Meet. Suppl., Final Paper # GC31F-08. New Orleans, LA. December 11-15.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: Burns, R.C., Schuler, J., Zegre, N., and Fernandez, R.. 2017. 45 years of climate data: Results and interpretation from the WVU Research Forest. The 2017 Society of American Foresters (SAF) Conference. Albuquerque, NM. November 15-19.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2014 Citation: Young, D., Zegre, N., Edwards, P., Strager, M. 2014. Catchment Streamflow Response to Climate Change Conditioned by Historic Alterations of Land-use: Forest Harvest, Succession, and Stand Conversion. American Geophysical Union. Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract H51G-0696. December 15-19.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: Merriam, E.R., R. Fernandez, T. Petty, N. Z�gre. 2017. Can brook trout survive climate change in large rivers? If it rains. 147th Meeting of the American Fisheries Society. Tampa, FL. August 20-24.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: Gaertner, B., Z�gre, N., R. Fernandez, Y. He. 2016. Impacts of climate change on forest phenology and implications for streamflow in the central Appalachian Mountains region, United States. American Geophysical Union. Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract GC33C-1258. December 14-18.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Strager, M.P., Z�gre, N., W. Toomey, J. M. Strager. 2015. Hydrological modeling for the delineation of surface water zones of critical concern. American Association of Geographers Annual Meeting. Chicago, IL. April 21-25.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Gaertner, B, Z�gre, N. 2015. Evaluating historical climate and hydrologic trends in the central Appalachian region of the United States. American Geophysical Union. Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract H41A-1277. December 14-18.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Strager, M., Z�gre, N. 2015. The Development of a Real Time Surface Water Flow Model to Protect Public Water Intakes in West Virginia. American Geophysical Union. Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract H33H-1707. December 14-18.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2014 Citation: Z�gre, N.. 2014. Are hydrologic impacts of valley fills scale invariant? American Geophysical Union. Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract H51G-0696. December 15-19.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2014 Citation: Young, D., Zegre, N., Edwards, P., Strager, M. Catchment Streamflow Response to Climate Change Conditioned by Historic Alterations of Land-use: Forest Harvest, Succession, and Stand Conversion. Mid-Atlantic Regional Water Conference, USFW National Conservation Training Center, Shepherdstown, WV. September 24-25, 2014.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2014 Citation: Z�gre, N.. 2014. Intensification of the water cycle - Implications for future water resources management. Mid-Atlantic Regional Water Conference, USFW National Conservation Training Center, Shepherdstown, WV. September 24-25, 2014.


Progress 10/01/17 to 09/30/18

Outputs
Target Audience:The target audiences are local, state, regional, and national natural resources agencies, non-profit organizations, and businesses working in the realm of water resources management or dependent on fresh water ecosystem services. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Trained federal employees from USDA, USEPA, NOAA, USGS, USFW, and Homeland Security on watershed analysi sand hydrologic modeling for water resources management decision making Trained 1 MS, 2 PhD, and 1 post doc student on the use of big data approaches for analyzing climate and water resources How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? presented research at river festival: Intensification of the Water Cycle: Implications for forests, watersheds, and people. Education Eddy, Cheat River Festival. Kingwood, WV. May 2018 What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? several manuscripts are in development that will be submitted in the next year; continue modeling fresh water resources under future climate change quantify the regions Food-Energy-Water Nexus to examine vulnerability

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Developed historic and future water and energy balacne components for the Appalachian Region based on ARC defintion (Fernandez and Zegre, Accepted). Developed disaggregation approach to downscale USGS county-level water use and consumption data to the landscape scale (4 km). In process of analyzing HUC 12-level water stess for the state of WV and the Potomac River Basin Developed water tower model to spatially link water use by downstream economies to upstream streamflow production - basis of new proposal to NSF (Febraury 2019 submission)

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2019 Citation: Young, D., Zégre, N., P. Edwards, Rodrigo Fernandez⿠. In Review. Streamflow sensitivity of disturbed catchments to climate change: Application of Budyko to the headwater-scale. Submitted to Science of the Total Environment
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Zégre, N., R. Fernandez., R. Rushforth, Benjamin Ruddell. The Appalachian Water Tower: The role of mountain water in regional water security. 1st International Conference on Water Security. Toronto, Canada. June 17-20.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Guillen, L.A., Zégre, N., R. Fernandez. 2018. Evaluating the Stability of Headwater Reference Catchments from Long-Term Paired Watershed Studies: an Eastern Perspective. University Council of Water Resources/National Institutes for Water Resources Annual Water Resources Conference. Pittsburgh, PA. June 26-28.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Gaertner, B. Zegre, N. Warner, T. Fernandez, R. He, Y. Merriam, E. (2018). Growing Season Response to Water Cycle Intensification: Implications for Long Term Forest Evapotranspiration. Science of the Total Environment. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.129.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2019 Citation: Fernandez, R. and Zégre, N. (Accepted). Seasonal changes in water and energy balances over the Appalachian region and beyond throughout the 21st century. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2019 Citation: Caretta, MA, J. Sanders; B. Turley; AR Williams; LA Guillen; Zégre, N. Does university students´ socioeconomic background shape their perception and attitude towards climate change? A pilot study from Central Appalachia, USA. Submitted to Research In Science Education.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Strager, M., Zégre, N.. 2018. A Two-Scaled Approach for Flood Susceptibility Prediction in Appalachia. University Council of Water Resources/National Institutes for Water Resources Annual Water Resources Conference. Pittsburgh, PA. June 26-28
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Fernandez, R., Zégre, N.. 2018. Projected Changes in Atmospheric Water Supply and Demand across the Appalachian Region During the 21st Century and their Impacts on Water Supply to Major Cities in Eastern U.S. University Council of Water Resources/National Institutes for Water Resources Annual Water Resources Conference. Pittsburgh, PA. June 26-28.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Fernandez, R., J. Shinn, M. Caretta, Zégre, N.. 2018. Merging the Hydrosocial and Social-Hydro Frameworks: An Interdisciplinary Approach to the Study of Flooding in Appalachia. University Council of Water Resources/National Institutes for Water Resources Annual Water Resources Conference. Pittsburgh, PA. June 26-28.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Guillen, L.A., Zégre, N., R. Fernandez. 2018. Evaluating the Stability of Headwater Reference Catchments from Long-Term Paired Watershed Studies: an Eastern Perspective. Institute of Water Security & Science Spring Conference. Morgantown, WV. Feb. 1-2.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Gaertner, B., Zégre, N., R. Fernandez, Y. He. T. Warner. Impacts of climate change on forest phenology and implications for streamflow in the central Appalachian Mountains region, United States. Institute of Water Security & Science Spring Conference. Morgantown, WV. Feb. 1-2.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Kearns, M. Fernandez, R., Zégre, N.. 2017. Quantifying the Consumptive Landscape in the Potomac Watershed Upstream From Washington D.C. American Geophysical Union. Fall Meet. Suppl., Final Paper # GC31F-02. New Orleans, LA. December 11-15.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Fernandez, R., Zégre, N.. 2017. Assessment of 21st century change of climate drivers to hydrological change across the Appalachian Region. American Geophysical Union. Fall Meet. Suppl., Final Paper # GC31F-08. New Orleans, LA. December 11-15.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Burns, R.C., Schuler, J., Zegre, N., and Fernandez, R.. 2017. 45 years of climate data: Results and interpretation from the WVU Research Forest. The 2017 Society of American Foresters (SAF) Conference. Albuquerque, NM. November 15-19.


Progress 10/01/16 to 09/30/17

Outputs
Target Audience:The target audiences are local, state, and regional natural resources agencies and non-profit organizations working in the realm of water quality and quantity, agriculutral, forest, and mineral resources management Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Nothing Reported How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Results have been disseminated through peer review publications and coferences. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?During the next reporting period, the water tower framework will be extended to include water quality

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Historic and future analysis of surface water availability and climate sensitivity has been completed for the Appalachian Mountains region at a gridded, 4 km spatial and daily temporal scales. These data were used to assess air and water temperature to assess the sensitivity aquaitc habitat in the Shavers Fork of the Cheat River watershed. Furthermore, these data are being used to build a water tower modeling framework that wil be used to assess the relative role of Appalachian fresh water and water use across local and downstream economies. In addition, results from project goals were used to develop a conceptual framework for understanding anthropogenic and natural disturbances on hydrology.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Merriam, E.R, R. Fernandez , T. Petty, N. Z�gre. 2017. Can brook trout survive climate change in large rivers? If it rains. Science of the Total Environment. doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.07.049
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Mirus, B. B., Ebel, B. A., Mohr, C. H., & Z�gre, N. (2017). Disturbance hydrology: Preparing for an increasingly disturbed future. Water Resources Research, 53. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR021084
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2017 Citation: Young, D., Z�gre, N., P. Edwards, Rodrigo Fernandez . In Review. Streamflow sensitivity of disturbed catchments to climate change: Application of Budyko to the headwater-scale. Water Resources Research.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2017 Citation: Kearns, M. Fernandez, R., Z�gre, N.. Quantifying the Consumptive Landscape in the Potomac Watershed Upstream From Washington D.C. American Geophysical Union. Fall Meet. Suppl., Final Paper # GC31F-02. New Orleans, LA. December 11-15.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2017 Citation: Fernandez, R., Z�gre, N.. Assessment of 21st century change of climate drivers to hydrological change across the Appalachian Region. American Geophysical Union. Fall Meet. Suppl., Final Paper # GC31F-08. New Orleans, LA. December 11-15.


Progress 10/01/15 to 09/30/16

Outputs
Target Audience:The target audiences include WV Dept. of Environmental Protection, WV Division of Forestry, USGS, US Forest Service, US EPA, and natural resources and water management agencies, American Geophysical Union, Society of American Foresters Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Nothing Reported How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Results dissemated in public scince forums such as "Science on Tap" and pulic lectures What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?We will expand our research to assess the contribution of freshwater derived in the Appalachian Mtns region to downstream communities such as Washing DC and Cincinatti.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Development of climate, land cover, and hydrology dataset for watershed in the Appalachian Mountains region. We have characertized historical and future sensitivity of watersheds to different land use and climate change secenarios.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: 1. Miller, A., N. Z�gre. 2016. Landscape-scale disturbance: Insights into the complexity of catchment hydrology in the mountaintop removal mining region of the eastern United States. Land. doi:10.3390/land5030022
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: 1. Gaertner, B., Z�gre, N., R. Fernandez, Y. He. Impacts of climate change on forest phenology and implications for streamflow in the central Appalachian Mountains region, United States. American Geophysical Union. Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract GC33C-1258. December 14-18.


Progress 10/01/14 to 09/30/15

Outputs
Target Audience:The target audiences include WV Dept. of Environmental Protection, WV Division of Forestry, USGS, US EPA, and natural resources and water management agencies. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Graduate students successfully trained in watershed science, hydrologic modeling, and isotope geochemistry. Student will be defending her MS in May 2016. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Will be disseminated through two peer-review publications that are either in review or will soon be submitted for review. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Develop a region-wide historic and future climate datasets to model the impacts of climate change on freshwater ecosystem services in the Appalachian Mountains region.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Characterization of the impacts of climate and land cover changes on streamflow throughout the southern West Virginia Coalfields region to assess the state of freshwater ecosystem services with a particular emphasis on forest cover changes, surface mining, and unconventional gas development

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Miller, A., N. Z�gre. Lesser of two disturbances? Insights into the complexity of catchment hydrology in the mountaintop removal mining region of the United States. Water Resources Research. Submitted 12/15/2015.


Progress 09/09/14 to 09/30/14

Outputs
Target Audience: The target audiences include WV Dept. of Environmental Protection, WV Division of Forestry, USGS, US Forest Service, US EPA, and natural resources and water management agencies, American Geophysical Union, Society of American Foresters Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Trained MS student on field and model research models to assess the sensitivity of the USFS Fernow Experimental Forest catchments to land cover change and climate change; Training new MS student in shallow groundwater geochemistry and water quality through the Monongahela National Forest, WV to study the environmental impacts of Marcellus Shale Development. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? Results published in peer-review journal articles and presented at National (American Geophysical Union) and regional (West Virginia Allegheny Highlands Climate Change Impacts Initiative) conferences What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Continue to collect field data to assess changes in water balance components and parameterize models; Continue to model historic and future water resources availability using downscaled GCMs and hydrologic models

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? 1. Currently building landscape and climate models for regional watersheds to assess historic and future water availability; 2. Downscaling ensemble GCM climate data and developing gridded climate files to run in hydrologic model; 3. Instrumenting experimental catchments with sap flux sensor to measure evapotranspiration and soil potential enegy sensors to quantify flux direction in a study to assess water balance changes to climate change.

Publications

  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Z�gre, N.. 2014. Intensification of the water cycle - Implications for future water resources management. Mid-Atlantic Regional Water Conference, USFW National Conservation Training Center, Shepherdstown, WV. September 24-25, 2014.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Z�gre, N.. 2014. Are hydrologic impacts of valley fills scale invariant? American Geophysical Union. Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract H51G-0696. December 15-19.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Z�gre, N., J. Shanmugasundaram, D. Young, C. Wright, E. Lee. 2014. Are headwater catchments resilient to warming climate? An Ecohydrological Case Study from the central Appalachian Mountains. 6th International Conference in Climate Change: Impacts & Responses. Reykjavik, Iceland.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Z�gre, N. 2014. Intensification of the water cycle: Implications for West Virginia water resources. West Virginia Allegheny Highlands Climate Change Impacts Initiative, Blackwater Falls State Park, WV. 6-7 June.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Z�gre, N., A. Miller, A., Maxwell, S. Lamont. 2014. Multiscale analysis of hydrology in a mountaintop mine-impacted watershed, Journal of the American Water Resources Association. doi: 10.1111/jawr.12184.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Young, D., Zegre, N., Edwards, P., Strager, M. 2014. Catchment Streamflow Response to Climate Change Conditioned by Historic Alterations of Land-use: Forest Harvest, Succession, and Stand Conversion. American Geophysical Union. Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract H51G-0696. December 15-19.